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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Starmer is unlikely to be the next PM
For the moment, Boris Johnson walks on water in terms of popularity. He enjoys positive approval ratings, his party sits on opinion poll leads of around 20% and is hoovering up about half the vote. All of which is likely to count for very little in a year’s time, never mind three.
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It is possible that the huge awareness of public health issues might result in far less winter pressures on the NHS than we have grown to expect. Hopefully we have seen an end to people being far less inclined/expected/allowed to soldier on into the office with snotty-coughy-sneezy ailments. I also wonder whether the fall in A&E numbers might continue on to an extent, as we have now broken the habit of people just turning up there with every minor ailment.
None of which contradicts your central point - Starmer won't be the next PM. He may perhaps be the next but one, and he has a much better chance than Corbyn would have had, but the value in the market is with the Tory big-hitters who had already been punted to the back benches before the virus hit. Ridiculously long odds available on Hunt and Javid, at the moment.
Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life. Many English voters clearly quite like that sort of crap still. I would prefer that we moved on from that, and am not the only Roundhead in the country.
Historically he has always outpolled his party, and replacing him is no surefire route back to popularity. Particularly so when he has populated the front bench with low talent culture warriors.
Sunak is the obvious exception, but it is easy to be popular when spending like a drunken sailor. How popular will he be when he is raising taxes, or delivering a diet of austerity gruel?
There is so much that is right in this article that it's a pity the underlying premise renders it null and void.
Johnson won the Tories their biggest victory since Margaret Thatcher. She was given free rein in three General Elections (1979, 1983, 1987) and no one would touch her.
We tend to filter what we think we know through the prism of recent experience and I'm afraid David you have fallen foul of this. You're thinking Boris is Cameron. He isn't. Cameron did win but only just and his coalition victory followed by 12-seat majority gave the plotters the oxygen they needed.
Boris has one single undeniable firewall. He won handsomely. The party won't touch him.
Keep this article for one reason only. To look back and smile fondly at the folly of it.
Boris Johnson will only step down before the 2024 election for one of two reasons 1. His health or 2. Boredom. Otherwise, the leadership is his for at least 8 more years.
I think more generally we have a flawed belief that politicians of any flavour can and should run departments of state. I would prefer a system where the pols to take a chairing role, and appoint non-civil-service professional managers to run things day to day.
Boris is leader because he had a large poll lead over the others. It is the same reason Tony Blair was tolerated by Labour's left. He was a winner. But Rishi Sunak now shares that, and there may be others to come. This means, along with the 80-seat majority @david_herdson alludes to, it will be safe to ditch Boris.
But I expect, or half-expect since I've bet only a small amount, Boris to step down. Since his Covid-19 illness, he has looked unfit, has trouble breathing, and seemed mentally off his game at PMQs. Current reports are that he (and presumably his doctors) blame this on obesity but Boris's weight has been on a public roller-coaster for years which suggests maintaining a slim figure might be beyond him. And if his health does pick up, what of politics? Will 2021 see an end to Brexit and Covid-19 so Boris can reshape Britain as planned, or will the hard times continue?
So based on the chances of Boris retiring or being ousted, I'd agree the next occupant of Number 10 will wear a blue rosette. Sorry, SKS.
I assume it means they agree with them
OK they stand down rsather than be sacked or sometimes over a point of principle but boredom? No chance
And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.
You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
Would limit the people available for each post but in turn allow politicians to get a much better grasp of their brief and stop the pointless musical chairs PMs like to play with their cabinets.
"The report notes that while Swinson was hampered by having less than five months between winning the party leadership and the election, her decision to immediately seek a new party chief executive undermined decision-making structures.
“This had the unintended consequence creating an ‘inner circle’ of advisers at arm’s length from the resources of the party machine, and put decision-making in the hands of an unaccountable group around the leader,” the report says. “It also severed some people from the roles and responsibilities they were employed to do, and led to the overpromotion of others.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/lib-dem-election-campaign-a-car-crash-says-partys-review
Michael Gove, who is minister for the Cabinet Office and chairs the public sector committee, is becoming increasingly powerful, colleagues say. “He is empire-building,” one cabinet minister said. “He has put himself at the heart of every major decision in government.” Another cabinet minister joked: “Did Boris really win the election so he could make Michael Gove prime minister?”
A third asked rhetorically: “Who is the spider in the middle of this web? Michael Gove.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-michael-gove-makes-himself-the-spider-in-a-changing-government-web-j7g0gpb99
If he wasnt the most powerful on those he may as well be sacked.
talent: natural aptitude or skill.
I don't think being a politician is down to natural aptitude, that's being a musician, artist or athlete. Politicians have an unswerving belief that they can make life better for people, and very few can or do
He is evidently still not recovered fully and we shall see if his health improves but this might be as far as he goes (@foxy?).
The danger for the country is that he will try to hang on and also, creating the right narrative for him to step down will be tricky.
Grown up people should be talked about in terms of genuine achievement or character not talked about as talented (whatever that means in fact)
Even to the point of getting it presumably intentionally wrong over the new exercise rules. It says you can now exercise outside with someone from outside your household for the first time. Which is wrong. You always could.
https://mobile.twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1261343230144032770
1) Total political failure (Eden, Cameron)
2) An obvious electoral liability (May, IDS)
3) Outstayed their welcome after a long stint (Thatcher, Blair)
4) Health (Macmillan, Wilson, Churchill, Gaitskill, Smith)
The others leaders left after defeat (some after hanging on too long). So where does that leave Boris going before 2024? Most like 4, then 2, then 1. I suspect if defeat become likely he will not hang around to take the humiliation.
Brown's School was founded in 1582. TH was private then Grammar.
Not toffs - sure. Oiks? No.
(Didn't actually realise that Brown is a Doctor).
It would explain why the epidemic fizzled out in China and Iran and perhaps London which can't be explained by herd immunity from infection. It would also explain the anecdotes of couples where one dies of the virus and the other apparently doesn't catch it in spite of their extreme closeness.
If true, and it fizzled out over the summer, it would be a game changer. Trump would be vindicated and re-elected. All countries would have massive financial hang-overs. Scientists would be discredited.
Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
While this is a government that replaced her by being led by those who were the rebels under May on the most central issue of the day.
I wouldn't expect Leia Organa's government post Return of the Jedi to be stuffed full of Palpatine's ministers.
I would say Thatcher was also a bit of 4) .As it was mental illness it probably manifested itself under 3 ) in the decisions she made late n her office and her personality becoming more extreme and odd. This was a great pity as I think the public and tory party knew it but because she was so effective in her early years it was thought a huge tragedy for her followers.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1261569311619022848
Most politicians, as far as I can work out, are pretty incompetent, and then have a veneer of competence, you do seem to do it the other way around.
To me it depends on whether he has been weakened to such an extent he cannot regain his full fitness then I expect sometime in 2021, and post brexit, he may well decide to hand over to spend more time with Carrie and his son while re-entering journalism and writing
However, if he does get back to full fitness I see no reason why he will stand down
1) His buffoon persona
2) A ruthless, narcissistic and effective political campaigner
3) An incompetent administrator lacking judgement on the key decisions.
https://youtu.be/CoifaIEvC0Q
I remain broadly of the view that Boris could not have achieved the victory Cameron did in 2015 and Cameron could not have achieved the victory Boris did on 2019. The flaws and talents of each, against what they faced, are critical.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5354972.stm
Admittedly, it was a factor in fuelling the return of Viktor Orban.
It is quite clear listening to Nicola that she has acted exactly as Boris until this last couple of weeks, especially in respect of care homes. She continually repeats she will only follow the advice so it is fair to assume in the Cobra meetings, both Boris and Nicola acted on that advise.
Boris is reported to have said in the 1922 meeting yesterday that PHE have questions to answer.
I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors
It surely must have happened, but I can already see the usual public flappery over who's on it, who leads it and what's its scope is, which is usually led by groups who've already made up their minds who is to blame (and thus implicitly arent truly focusing on seeing what emerges) which will delay it months. I look forward to whichever person leading it is attacked for being establishment and people being furious that relatives of the deceased are not involved in every single aspect of its planning or operation.
And itll be so complex and huge there'll probably be half a dozen different ones to magnify those issues.
It has to happen of course, but I expect it'll be an absolute nightmare even to get going.
https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1260665437790130177
Time has flown by and we have so many blessings
A golden opportunity like this to deflect blame onto an erratic and dishonest chancer with the intellect of a dead stoat, and he takes aim at civil servants instead?
Neither Blair nor Johnson are issues- or ideology-driven politicians, the way Margaret Thatcher or Gordon Brown were.
I'd also add that once Brexit is done and a semblance of normality restored to trading relationships (which might be 2022 or even 2023, and not necessarily 2021) then politics as usual will take over the Tory party.
The Leave/Remain split will be far less important than who has the answers on economic growth, the future of AI, security and China.
That makes the factional calculations in the Tory party far more fluid, so if Boris spends everything in his political bank account in the next 2-3 years then be very open-minded about who could succeed him.
Fairness and equity don't come into it.
The key on actions taken here will be sage advice and the decisions by Cobra
But probably not.
There will be legions of devout followers chasing themselves to railings.
Govt Scientists
Matt Hancock
Rishi Sunak
And to a degree that makes sense - as long as in action someone is not in denial, theres probably not much to be gained by just staring you're screwed.