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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    We have to remember that the government intended for more workplaces to remain open during the "lockdown". The advice was always to work from home if you could, but otherwise go to work if you could not (unless you worked in some retail/leisure).

    So they would have anticipated a higher level of infection and hospital demand which didn't materialise. They failed to adjust to this.

    I fear that we may have as bad a mortality rate as Italy even though the NHS wasn't overwhelmed, because of the advice to those ill to stay at home. It was another catastrophic error.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    alex_ said:



    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    But isn’t this part of the problem (and is potentially true of COVID) as well. First of all the headlines focus on “case” numbers, rather than outcomes. Which distorts people’s views on danger. Kids are potentially exposed to all kinds of things all the time. They will be infected by many of them. For some this may even be dangerous. But they still go to school, and nobody previously questioned that they should. Yes there is a bit of a “fear of the unknown”. Who’s worried about a bit of mumps? We know what that is and the danger from it. But “Kawasaki syndrome linked to COVID...”

    Whilst the point of the COVID lockdown is to limit spread and protect the elderly and limit the impact on the NHS that is not the reason many people support it. It is because they are scared of it personally. But whilst everything says there is a large chance they might get it, for the non-elderly the subsequent danger is very small. Not nonexistent - but not incomparable with many other risks that people don’t give a second thought about.

    Take construction workers. And very dangerous profession. One that people do despite the dangers. Relative to the risk from COVID?

    Unions are saying that teachers should refuse to work unless their safety can be “guaranteed”. Of course it can’t be guaranteed. Reasonable measures can be taken to minimise the risk, but at some point a line must be drawn. That is what risk management and mitigation is all about. And in normal times we live with it every day.
    This last point goes back to my comment on Monday, that the approach to solving the problems that the Corona virus is throwing at us, is in the UK is very adversarial.

    I expect the unions would be happy that "Reasonable measures can be taken to minimise the risk", as is the case in schools in Berlin (already reopened). As someone replied, the UK teachers' unions are almost certainly working with the government and with head masters, but the agressive ultimatum approach is making everyone's task at finding a solution that much harder.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Impossible to discriminate those effects from effects of CV19 on the polls.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Nigelb said:
    30 fold sounds bad but has this moved from almost unheard of to very rare?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    I think it also exposes, yet again, the weakness in primary care in the NHS. Reportedly, in Germany, they were able to monitor Covid cases at home so that they could them identify those whose condition worsened and needed to be hospitalised.

    We don't have that primary care capacity. I'm sure it would have been a disaster a different way if NHS 111 had advised all suspected Covid cases to present at hospital instead of staying at home, but we need to find a way of moving away from NHS = Hospitals and improving primary care and other parts of the health system.

    At the moment GPs in the NHS mainly operate as gatekeepers and rationing agents for non-emergency hospital access, for example, which in many cases is simply a waste of everyone's time.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    Jonathan said:

    The emergence of party political attacks on the NHS is a sad, predictable development.

    So the NHS should be like the Queen; beyond criticism?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited May 2020

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The major problems developing in Latin America at present do suggest that warm weather won't wipe it out here, apart perhaps from encouraging people outdoors.
    If people are living and working in overcrowded conditions, drinking in cramped makeshift bars, etc that may counteract any warm weather effect.
    With only a small degree of immunity in the population, for such an infectious virus any seasonal changes in transmissibility are going to have only a relatively small effect. It may slow down in the Summer, but it's very difficult to believe the Summer alone could suppress it unless we were a lot closer to herd immunity.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    The public sector does not deliver and is probably incapable of doing so. In good times, I think that suits us, or at least a large proportion of the population.

    Unlike the US or Germany our private sector is also not that great.

    Perhaps this is the time for some fundamental reforms?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2020


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Are you seeing this change in any other data?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Socky said:

    Jonathan said:

    The emergence of party political attacks on the NHS is a sad, predictable development.

    So the NHS should be like the Queen; beyond criticism?
    Would you attack the armed forces as they had been sent into battle and taken casualties?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The strong suggestions that vitamin D deficiencies plays a part was why sunbathing in the park (with social distancing) should never have been prevented. Of course in Scotland (which has an even greater problem with vitamin D deficiency) it still is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    Miss Cyclefree, my deepest sympathies.

    Mr. B2, I wonder if the vitamin D factor could be the, or a, factor behind seemingly different rates of death for people of differing race.

    I've wondered that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    The extra capacity was to avoid a North Italy situation. I don't think we can complain about the existence of an insurance policy in the case of the Field Hospitals.

    Also we don't know yet whether capacity will be needed - Wave 2 et al. In Spanish Flu, Wave 2 was far more deadly than wave 1.

    I agree that the NHS religion was (and is) a problem, and the skewed power of lobby groups demanding kit for the NHS keeping it away from care homes.

    i don't see how it could have been different, however.
    On the whole, I think the front liners have risen to the challenge well.

    The fault for lack of PPE stocks, decision to stop Test and Trace, Stay Away policy, and discharges to care homes are command level failures, not the fault of the poor bloody infantry. Worth noting that many of the same issues arose in other health systems.

    The #Hospital specials on Monday and Tuesday give some feel of how it was at its height. I don’t entirely blame the decision makers. Mistakes will be made in fast evolving, unprecedented situations.
    I think that's fair.
    What I don't see, though, is public acknowledgment of those mistakes. And how much has been learned at the command level from those mistakes is an open question.
    Yes, and preparation for the next phase does require some analysis of what could be improved upon.

    In practice, the reversals on testing policy, discharges to care homes, PPE to care homes etc do implicitly admit that failures were made first time round.

    It is the 111 Stay Away policy that needs review.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I think the "end of the lockdown" may exaggerate the situation. I think people are still very wary about going out. I went lovely walk yesterday evening from Swanwick to Warsash along the River Hamble. Normally on a sunny May evening you would see scores of people, i saw 4.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    Mrs C, sadly, Boris Johnson being full of shit does not constitute news.

    Hope Starmer shoves Butler off the front bench.

    Done. She is not on the front bench; Starmer removed her in in his first set of appointments.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
    Maybe the DUP are picking it up?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
    Maybe the DUP are picking it up?
    D U who?

    They had their moment and flunked it.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. AI, (Al?), I was unaware of that. Good news, though.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Jonathan said:

    Socky said:

    Jonathan said:

    The emergence of party political attacks on the NHS is a sad, predictable development.

    So the NHS should be like the Queen; beyond criticism?
    Would you attack the armed forces as they had been sent into battle and taken casualties?
    Perhaps if we civilians were left to be killed by the enemy whilst the Army withdrew to its bases to "Protect the military"....?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020
    As long as the government continue to pay out 80% of wages to furloughed workers and there are not mass redundancies then voters will prioritise their health over the economy.

    However now the Covid peak has passed if the government prolongs lockdown too long then the risk is that it will not be able to afford paying furlough indefinitely and if people do not start going back to shops, pubs and restaurants we will get mass redundancies and recession
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    The extra capacity was to avoid a North Italy situation. I don't think we can complain about the existence of an insurance policy in the case of the Field Hospitals.

    Also we don't know yet whether capacity will be needed - Wave 2 et al. In Spanish Flu, Wave 2 was far more deadly than wave 1.

    I agree that the NHS religion was (and is) a problem, and the skewed power of lobby groups demanding kit for the NHS keeping it away from care homes.

    i don't see how it could have been different, however.
    On the whole, I think the front liners have risen to the challenge well.

    The fault for lack of PPE stocks, decision to stop Test and Trace, Stay Away policy, and discharges to care homes are command level failures, not the fault of the poor bloody infantry. Worth noting that many of the same issues arose in other health systems.

    The #Hospital specials on Monday and Tuesday give some feel of how it was at its height. I don’t entirely blame the decision makers. Mistakes will be made in fast evolving, unprecedented situations.
    The emergence of party political attacks on the NHS is a sad, predictable development.
    Conservative loyalists have little choice other than to attack the NHS. Britain has obviously performed poorly and if they don’t attack the NHS, they’d have to accept the government had screwed up.

    Defending the government is far more important to them than working out why thousands of people died avoidable deaths.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Painful and moving description of John Prine's last days by his wife on R4 just now. Some of it will be familiar to anyone who has had to experience the end of a loved one, but also an insight into the trajectory of Covid-19 that hundreds of thousands of people are experiencing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
    I'm not sure Starmer is the concern for him on this one. The leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party has signed a deal to end the union as we know it and has then either lied about it or hadn't a clue what he was telling these business leaders in NI last November (https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728). "Throw the form in the bin" he told them. Yet it will be his government requiring the form.

    Its the same issue as yesterday. A Prime Minister so disinterested in the detail is a danger to this country at the best of times never mind during this crisis. What makes it worse are the people willing to excuse this gross incompetence and disinterest - several of them on here - for partisan reasons.

    Yes, and that party is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Unionist. As in protect the Union. Not incompetently shat on the union then lie about it.
    It doesn't even seem to be registering as
    a top news story in Northern Ireland.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    The implied trade-off between the economy and saving lives is false. Economic wellbeing is served by not allowing the virus to take hold. We are in a bad place on that due to mistakes that we have made and are continuing to make. It massively limits our room for manoeuvre.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Nigelb said:
    LOL.

    Noone would put up with being peed upon, but the chances of it transmitting a disease is practically zero.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I think the "end of the lockdown" may exaggerate the situation. I think people are still very wary about going out. I went lovely walk yesterday evening from Swanwick to Warsash along the River Hamble. Normally on a sunny May evening you would see scores of people, i saw 4.
    I agree people will be more cautious and we all need to assess our own risks but the government is publishing sector by sector guidance on working safely. Here is an example: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/construction-and-other-outdoor-work

    Without fast testing, lots of testing and adequate tracing this will not work. For a start people need to get there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited May 2020
    Interesting news from the F1 world. Sainz to Ferrari and Riccardo to McLaren. Ferrari are kidding themselves if they think Sainz will sit back and meekly accept the number 2 role.

    Riccardo has a lot to prove as well and McLaren might be exactly the right team to do it.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    It's kind of weird to talk about this as if it's a trade-off, if you don't suppress the virus the economy will suppress itself.

    FF43 said:

    The implied trade-off between the economy and saving lives is false. Economic wellbeing is served by not allowing the virus to take hold.

    I find it amazing how often this very simple point has to be repeated on this forum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
    I'm not sure Starmer is the concern for him on this one. The leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party has signed a deal to end the union as we know it and has then either lied about it or hadn't a clue what he was telling these business leaders in NI last November (https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728). "Throw the form in the bin" he told them. Yet it will be his government requiring the form.

    Its the same issue as yesterday. A Prime Minister so disinterested in the detail is a danger to this country at the best of times never mind during this crisis. What makes it worse are the people willing to excuse this gross incompetence and disinterest - several of them on here - for partisan reasons.

    Yes, and that party is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Unionist. As in protect the Union. Not incompetently shat on the union then lie about it.
    It was the EU who insisted either the whole UK be kept in a customs union ie the May deal or Northern Ireland be kept in the customs union with single market elements if GB was to leave the customs union and single market ie the Boris deal.

    It was either that or No Deal, the UK was never going to put barbed wire and troops back at the Irish border, so blame the EU for the current scenario
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Here's the graph- people can judge for themselves. My take is that Biden is consistently somewhat ahead with no real variation over recent weeks. American polls are in many cases noit up to British standards (samples too small and/or unweighted) so it's best to look at the overall picture.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The strong suggestions that vitamin D deficiencies plays a part was why sunbathing in the park (with social distancing) should never have been prevented. Of course in Scotland (which has an even greater problem with vitamin D deficiency) it still is.
    Seasonality, even in known seasonal viruses, doesn't seem to be that well understood with several candidates for the way that seasonality actually works, some or all of which may be factors. These include UV, absolute humidity (both degrading the virus quicker), fewer close contacts due to outdoor living in summer, vitamin D and mucus membranes being more effective in warm weather.

    For a normal seasonal virus this is plenty to take effective R from slightly above 1 to well below 1.

    If we consider seasonality at a base level, that temperature has an effect, for whatever reason, to reduce effective R, then I think plurality scientific opinion is that COVID-19 is seasonal. But the weather is nowhere near enough alone to take R below 1 at this stage, and some of the effects of lockdown may work counter to seasonal effects, although the far greater effective R reduction from reducing numbers of contacts still justifies lockdown measures in some form.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    It's kind of weird to talk about this as if it's a trade-off, if you don't suppress the virus the economy will suppress itself.

    We must do everything possible to save lives, but I am not sure the above is true.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    tlg86 said:

    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.

    A rather odd point, given that we're not paid on the basis of how much money we need.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, people are scared about Covid-19. The government has offered financial packages that make the economy seem an abstract concern. Until the balance changes, the public won’t change their priorities.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Hard for the Sun to go downmarket, but it has. Boris will sleep a little more sweetly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    Looks like Warren and Harris would be terrible VP picks then.

    Klobuchar or Adams would be good picks, Whitmer might be alright and is still unknown
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I have seen no serious discussion of quarantine in the UK. This about keeping populations that are suspected of being infected isolated from populations that are presumed healthy and who can go about normal business. To be clear I am not referring to lockdown where everyone is a potential infection candidate, nor quarantine of people coming in from abroad. The lack of effective quarantine is the root cause behind the Care Homes scandal and, if not sorted out, it will sink track and trace or any post-lockdown strategy.

    Edit on your Starmer point. The current care homes guidance is even worse in the circumstances than the previous guidance that he picked Johnson up on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.

    A rather odd point, given that we're not paid on the basis of how much money we need.
    The government is paying people not to work. Why should that amount differ between people, and for how long should it differ?

    If your answer on the first part is based around people’s prior commitments, then @tlg86’s father has a good point.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I have seen no serious discussion of quarantine in the UK. This about keeping populations that are suspected of being infected isolated from populations that are presumed healthy and who can go about normal business. To be clear I am not referring to lockdown where everyone is a potential infection candidate, nor quarantine of people coming in from abroad. The lack of effective quarantine is the root cause behind the Care Homes scandal and, if not sorted out, it will sink track and trace or any post-lockdown strategy.
    I thought that was one that we had sorted out. We managed to quarantine those coming back from various cruises etc. But yes, it is absolutely essential.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    HYUFD said:

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
    I'm not sure Starmer is the concern for him on this one. The leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party has signed a deal to end the union as we know it and has then either lied about it or hadn't a clue what he was telling these business leaders in NI last November (https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728). "Throw the form in the bin" he told them. Yet it will be his government requiring the form.

    Its the same issue as yesterday. A Prime Minister so disinterested in the detail is a danger to this country at the best of times never mind during this crisis. What makes it worse are the people willing to excuse this gross incompetence and disinterest - several of them on here - for partisan reasons.

    Yes, and that party is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Unionist. As in protect the Union. Not incompetently shat on the union then lie about it.
    It was the EU who insisted either the whole UK be kept in a customs union ie the May deal or Northern Ireland be kept in the customs union with single market elements if GB was to leave the customs union and single market ie the Boris deal.

    It was either that or No Deal, the UK was never going to put barbed wire and troops back at the Irish border, so blame the EU for the current scenario
    You really are a blinkered Moron. Are you arguing that the EU not have an external border here? We knew fully well they would have a border, and we knew fully well our GFA commitments. The government lying to Morons that there is a way through to negate one or the other is something they can get away with because Morons.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    This week the EU and ECJ threatened Germany's constitutional court and today they threaten the UK over the bi lateral travel agreement with France

    They never learn do they
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.

    A rather odd point, given that we're not paid on the basis of how much money we need.
    Indeed - that would be socialism! But the reality is that the government furlough scheme cannot carry on indefinitely without large tax increases on those who are working. Starmer should be thinking about how he will react when the government eventually starts to do this.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    (https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728). "Throw the form in the bin" he told them. Yet it will be his government requiring the form.

    .

    The difference between Johnson then and now since Comrade Corona of the Wuhan Battalion narrowly failed in his mission is striking. He is certainly a diminished figure.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Jonathan said:

    Hard for the Sun to go downmarket, but it has. Boris will sleep a little more sweetly.
    Harry is an excellent choice. Superb journalist.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I think the "end of the lockdown" may exaggerate the situation. I think people are still very wary about going out. I went lovely walk yesterday evening from Swanwick to Warsash along the River Hamble. Normally on a sunny May evening you would see scores of people, i saw 4.
    I agree people will be more cautious and we all need to assess our own risks but the government is publishing sector by sector guidance on working safely. Here is an example: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/construction-and-other-outdoor-work

    Without fast testing, lots of testing and adequate tracing this will not work. For a start people need to get there.
    Construction is now a very different beast than it was before lockdown. We are still only working at 40% with most staff on Furlough. However for those that are working we have had to make many changes in their working practices including supplying pop up washing stations, social distancing, new PPE (plastic face coverings on their hard hats), sanitising kits, much more supervision etc etc. We are not allowing van sharing at the moment and any welfare units for breaks have been closed and our guys have to go and sit in their vans. We have an hourly deep cleaning routine for all onsite toilets and washing facilities. Jobs will take longer, however im sure that all these new procedures will help reduce infection. Our office is also totally different now, we have perspex screens everywhere.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Another cherry picker.

    This was one poll, 300 people across something like 15 states, and as RCS pointed out it is unweighted. The standard for polls in GB is at least 1000 respondents with stratified sampling and post-hoc weighting.

    As Antohny Wells always says, the most likely explanation for a surprising result is that it is an outlier, unless and until other polls start corroborating it.
  • coachcoach Posts: 250
    edited May 2020

    On topic, people are scared about Covid-19. The government has offered financial packages that make the economy seem an abstract concern. Until the balance changes, the public won’t change their priorities.

    This interests me, I'm not convinced that a large majority of us are scared of the virus. But of the millions being paid to stay at home I'd say a large majority are very comfortable and therefore wish to see the lockdown extended.

    Be careful what you wish for
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    On topic, people are scared about Covid-19. The government has offered financial packages that make the economy seem an abstract concern. Until the balance changes, the public won’t change their priorities.

    All the govt has done is to move the retirement date forward from sixty-something to around twenty(ish). What's not to like?

    Even the weather is good :)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Dura_Ace said:

    (https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728). "Throw the form in the bin" he told them. Yet it will be his government requiring the form.

    .

    The difference between Johnson then and now since Comrade Corona of the Wuhan Battalion narrowly failed in his mission is striking. He is certainly a diminished figure.
    He's absolutely brilliant at bluster. Fantastic. He clearly knows how to grab attention and charm people with his act (we know its an act- the hair, the tie, the wiff waff). And thats great as long as underneath the hokey you are actually competent (George W Bush apparently).

    Johnson's problem is that he Isn't Competent. He's sold us a Monorail without a clue how to build one, hence "no border down the Irish Sea" knowing the GFA would compel us to put one in. That he mesmerises Comical-AliHYUFD is fine, here in the Real World his blustering incompetence matters.

    I'm not Irish. But I am a democrat and NI is democratically will of the people part of my country. That our government would cut them adrift and not know/lie is reprehensible. Had Labour done this the Unionist Party would be outraged. But no, its the Unionist Party dismantling the union. Trying to blame foreigners for sticking to rules that we knew existed up front is pandering to Morons. Plenty of them out there happily...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I have seen no serious discussion of quarantine in the UK. This about keeping populations that are suspected of being infected isolated from populations that are presumed healthy and who can go about normal business. To be clear I am not referring to lockdown where everyone is a potential infection candidate, nor quarantine of people coming in from abroad. The lack of effective quarantine is the root cause behind the Care Homes scandal and, if not sorted out, it will sink track and trace or any post-lockdown strategy.

    Edit on your Starmer point. The current care homes guidance is even worse in the circumstances than the previous guidance that he picked Johnson up on.
    Yes, the strategy should be test, track, trace, separate. The government should have quarantine centres where people who test positive are kept for 14 or until their symptoms subside. Leaving people to their own devices hasn't worked because there are enough irresponsible people who will continue to meet with others even if they have mild symptoms.

    The government's behaviour analysts continue to underestimate just how much short term hardship people are willing to undergo to get this under control. Almost everyone I know would be ok with mandatory separation and quarantine if it meant bringing an end to the virus sooner.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2020
    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Condolences to you Cyclefree and your family.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I think the "end of the lockdown" may exaggerate the situation. I think people are still very wary about going out. I went lovely walk yesterday evening from Swanwick to Warsash along the River Hamble. Normally on a sunny May evening you would see scores of people, i saw 4.
    I agree people will be more cautious and we all need to assess our own risks but the government is publishing sector by sector guidance on working safely. Here is an example: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/construction-and-other-outdoor-work

    Without fast testing, lots of testing and adequate tracing this will not work. For a start people need to get there.
    Construction is now a very different beast than it was before lockdown. We are still only working at 40% with most staff on Furlough. However for those that are working we have had to make many changes in their working practices including supplying pop up washing stations, social distancing, new PPE (plastic face coverings on their hard hats), sanitising kits, much more supervision etc etc. We are not allowing van sharing at the moment and any welfare units for breaks have been closed and our guys have to go and sit in their vans. We have an hourly deep cleaning routine for all onsite toilets and washing facilities. Jobs will take longer, however im sure that all these new procedures will help reduce infection. Our office is also totally different now, we have perspex screens everywhere.
    I take it that you came up with most of that yourselves before this guidance was published?
    But if your staff are still using public transport to get there there will be a spread of infection. And I fear that close proximity is in the nature of at least some of the work.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Are you seeing this change in any other data?
    I haven’t dug deep enough but it’s not all about what the data shows *at this stage* - it’s also about sculpting the battlelines, sensing the zeitgeist and which way the wind is blowing in the long campaign.

    You might laugh at that but informed intuition is an important part of any political betters strategy. It’s not all about raw polling numbers.

    Even if I’m wrong shaking the democrats out of their current complacency can only be a good thing and will lead to you being right.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I have seen no serious discussion of quarantine in the UK. This about keeping populations that are suspected of being infected isolated from populations that are presumed healthy and who can go about normal business. To be clear I am not referring to lockdown where everyone is a potential infection candidate, nor quarantine of people coming in from abroad. The lack of effective quarantine is the root cause behind the Care Homes scandal and, if not sorted out, it will sink track and trace or any post-lockdown strategy.
    I thought that was one that we had sorted out. We managed to quarantine those coming back from various cruises etc. But yes, it is absolutely essential.
    What I mean is that Asian countries such as Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore that have been relatively successful in suppressing the virus will put a tag on anyone with identified as a potential infection victim and woe betide you if you step outside your house. China whipped anyone with potential infection to a dedicated quarantine facility. I haven't seen any discussion of how this should be managed to the same standard in the UK. In the case of care homes there is nothing in place at all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Hard for the Sun to go downmarket, but it has. Boris will sleep a little more sweetly.
    Harry is an excellent choice. Superb journalist.
    You like Tory Bear. 🤷‍♂️

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Jonathan said:


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Impossible to discriminate those effects from effects of CV19 on the polls.
    The good thing about me is that I’m free of confirmation bias when it comes to Trump.

    Other punters are riddled with it on this site. They simply hate him too much.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.

    By that logic, Labour, the LDs and the SNP are in bigger trouble as they are against lifting the lockdown.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1259415801666449408?s=09
    I would that some degree of long term debilitation is very likely, but like so much other stuff wrt Corona it will be a long time before we know.

    Even physical recovery from say a week in Intensive Care or a nasty winter flu can take months to a year or more.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.

    A rather odd point, given that we're not paid on the basis of how much money we need.
    Indeed - that would be socialism! But the reality is that the government furlough scheme cannot carry on indefinitely without large tax increases on those who are working. Starmer should be thinking about how he will react when the government eventually starts to do this.
    As someone who is still working, I can't say I'm keen on the idea of paying more tax for the people who have enjoyed a two month holiday so far.

    A far better idea would be to tax those who were furloughed as and when they come back to work, to pay for their own bloody holidays.

    Not that I expect all of them will have jobs to come back to, of course...
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    Conservative loyalists have little choice other than to attack the NHS. Britain has obviously performed poorly and if they don’t attack the NHS, they’d have to accept the government had screwed up.

    Defending the government is far more important to them than working out why thousands of people died avoidable deaths.

    If you want to check for prejudice, reverse the positions...

    Labour loyalists have little choice other than to attack the Government. Britain has obviously performed poorly and if they don’t attack the Government., they’d have to accept the NHS had screwed up.

    Defending the NHS is far more important to them than working out why thousands of people died avoidable deaths.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.

    A rather odd point, given that we're not paid on the basis of how much money we need.
    Indeed - that would be socialism! But the reality is that the government furlough scheme cannot carry on indefinitely without large tax increases on those who are working. Starmer should be thinking about how he will react when the government eventually starts to do this.
    As someone who is still working, I can't say I'm keen on the idea of paying more tax for the people who have enjoyed a two month holiday so far.

    A far better idea would be to tax those who were furloughed as and when they come back to work, to pay for their own bloody holidays.

    Not that I expect all of them will have jobs to come back to, of course...
    There is that.
    And FWIW they are also paying tax on their furlough income.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Pro_Rata said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The strong suggestions that vitamin D deficiencies plays a part was why sunbathing in the park (with social distancing) should never have been prevented. Of course in Scotland (which has an even greater problem with vitamin D deficiency) it still is.
    Seasonality, even in known seasonal viruses, doesn't seem to be that well understood with several candidates for the way that seasonality actually works, some or all of which may be factors. These include UV, absolute humidity (both degrading the virus quicker), fewer close contacts due to outdoor living in summer, vitamin D and mucus membranes being more effective in warm weather.

    For a normal seasonal virus this is plenty to take effective R from slightly above 1 to well below 1.


    If we consider seasonality at a base level, that temperature has an effect, for whatever reason, to reduce effective R, then I think plurality scientific opinion is that COVID-19 is seasonal. But the weather is nowhere near enough alone to take R below 1 at this stage, and some of the effects of lockdown may work counter to seasonal effects, although the far greater effective R reduction from reducing numbers of contacts still justifies lockdown measures in some form.
    I agree it is complex and somewhat uncertain what particular factor is most important but keeping people locked indoors is not the solution and never was, provided social distancing is observed. From my perspective I am taking 2hr walks pretty much every day to make sure I get exposed to UV, sunlight and vitamin D (which I am also taking in tablet form along with my zinc).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.

    'I don't see where Boris goes to be honest.'

    I don't think he's ever gone anywhere intending to be honest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020
    BBC news interviewing Paul Sweeney, who was Glasgow NE MP until December but now on universal credit given the current situation
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I think the "end of the lockdown" may exaggerate the situation. I think people are still very wary about going out. I went lovely walk yesterday evening from Swanwick to Warsash along the River Hamble. Normally on a sunny May evening you would see scores of people, i saw 4.
    I agree people will be more cautious and we all need to assess our own risks but the government is publishing sector by sector guidance on working safely. Here is an example: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/construction-and-other-outdoor-work

    Without fast testing, lots of testing and adequate tracing this will not work. For a start people need to get there.
    Construction is now a very different beast than it was before lockdown. We are still only working at 40% with most staff on Furlough. However for those that are working we have had to make many changes in their working practices including supplying pop up washing stations, social distancing, new PPE (plastic face coverings on their hard hats), sanitising kits, much more supervision etc etc. We are not allowing van sharing at the moment and any welfare units for breaks have been closed and our guys have to go and sit in their vans. We have an hourly deep cleaning routine for all onsite toilets and washing facilities. Jobs will take longer, however im sure that all these new procedures will help reduce infection. Our office is also totally different now, we have perspex screens everywhere.
    I take it that you came up with most of that yourselves before this guidance was published?
    But if your staff are still using public transport to get there there will be a spread of infection. And I fear that close proximity is in the nature of at least some of the work.
    The guidance was there from the 24th March on the Government Website. Also the Construction Leardership Council provide regular updates to their Site Operating Procedures, the first being produced on the 24th March 2020.

    https://www.constructionleadershipcouncil.co.uk/news/site-operating-procedures-during-covid-19/

    Thats why I got so annoyed when people kept saying there was no guidance.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Socky said:

    Conservative loyalists have little choice other than to attack the NHS. Britain has obviously performed poorly and if they don’t attack the NHS, they’d have to accept the government had screwed up.

    Defending the government is far more important to them than working out why thousands of people died avoidable deaths.

    If you want to check for prejudice, reverse the positions...

    Labour loyalists have little choice other than to attack the Government. Britain has obviously performed poorly and if they don’t attack the Government., they’d have to accept the NHS had screwed up.

    Defending the NHS is far more important to them than working out why thousands of people died avoidable deaths.
    You had harsh words this week for party political attacks. You must feel somewhat confused.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TGOHF666 said:

    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.

    By that logic, Labour, the LDs and the SNP are in bigger trouble as they are against lifting the lockdown.

    Maybe you are right. Maybe its us that are in trouble because we simply don;t have a grown up anywhere near government. And for that many of us will pay dearly in the coming years. Through our wallets, through our health both mental and physical.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    It's kind of weird to talk about this as if it's a trade-off, if you don't suppress the virus the economy will suppress itself.

    We must do everything possible to save lives, but I am not sure the above is true.
    If an economy is not surpressed by an uncontrolled pandemic, with a high infection rate, lots of hospitalisations and lots of deaths, then that economy is already in a dire situation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,931
    eristdoof said:

    alex_ said:



    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    But isn’t this part of the problem (and is potentially true of COVID) as well. First of all the headlines focus on “case” numbers, rather than outcomes. Which distorts people’s views on danger. Kids are potentially exposed to all kinds of things all the time. They will be infected by many of them. For some this may even be dangerous. But they still go to school, and nobody previously questioned that they should. Yes there is a bit of a “fear of the unknown”. Who’s worried about a bit of mumps? We know what that is and the danger from it. But “Kawasaki syndrome linked to COVID...”

    Whilst the point of the COVID lockdown is to limit spread and protect the elderly and limit the impact on the NHS that is not the reason many people support it. It is because they are scared of it personally. But whilst everything says there is a large chance they might get it, for the non-elderly the subsequent danger is very small. Not nonexistent - but not incomparable with many other risks that people don’t give a second thought about.

    Take construction workers. And very dangerous profession. One that people do despite the dangers. Relative to the risk from COVID?

    Unions are saying that teachers should refuse to work unless their safety can be “guaranteed”. Of course it can’t be guaranteed. Reasonable measures can be taken to minimise the risk, but at some point a line must be drawn. That is what risk management and mitigation is all about. And in normal times we live with it every day.
    This last point goes back to my comment on Monday, that the approach to solving the problems that the Corona virus is throwing at us, is in the UK is very adversarial.

    I expect the unions would be happy that "Reasonable measures can be taken to minimise the risk", as is the case in schools in Berlin (already reopened). As someone replied, the UK teachers' unions are almost certainly working with the government and with head masters, but the agressive ultimatum approach is making everyone's task at finding a solution that much harder.
    The urgency is, one imagines, to finalise new arrangements before reopening in June which is only a couple of weeks away.

    The first striking thing is the government says we should wear masks on buses but not in classrooms. Second is that since the virus is spread largely by saliva droplets, then should teachers use microphones rather than projecting their voices, and should music lessons and assemblies avoid singing and shared musical instruments (eg recorders)?

    We've discussed all this before but the government's guidance is lacking, although it does promise more details in time.

    If Covid-19 becomes endemic then one casualty might need to be parental choice of schools, with children being sent to their nearest schools in order to reduce the strain on buses. Overall this will not make much difference because the number of schools and places will not change, but it will mean both parties abandoning that part of their doctrines.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.

    By that logic, Labour, the LDs and the SNP are in bigger trouble as they are against lifting the lockdown.

    Maybe you are right. Maybe its us that are in trouble because we simply don;t have a grown up anywhere near government. And for that many of us will pay dearly in the coming years. Through our wallets, through our health both mental and physical.
    In which case by leading the escape, Boris may be the one eyed man in the blind kingdom of the Uk.

    Also

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/13/attention-citizens-the-covid19-emergency-is-over/

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited May 2020
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is there not a difference between the economy and how are we going to pay for all of this?

    If the powers that be think that the best thing is to remain like this for a few years, we are going to have to pay for it. My dad keeps making the point that if we aren't going to the pub and spending money, then we don't need to be paid as much money as usual.

    A rather odd point, given that we're not paid on the basis of how much money we need.
    Indeed - that would be socialism! But the reality is that the government furlough scheme cannot carry on indefinitely without large tax increases on those who are working. Starmer should be thinking about how he will react when the government eventually starts to do this.
    As someone who is still working, I can't say I'm keen on the idea of paying more tax for the people who have enjoyed a two month holiday so far.

    A far better idea would be to tax those who were furloughed as and when they come back to work, to pay for their own bloody holidays.

    Not that I expect all of them will have jobs to come back to, of course...
    I'm not certain about this, but I think when you come off unemployment benefit, they take it back through PAYE (maybe someone else can correct/clarify this).

    It's going to be a big ask to do that for those furloughed on £2,500 a month. And the problem is, no one knows when "normal" will return. If it was September, then it might be feasible to avoid a massive alteration to the tax system/public sector pay etc. But I suspect that adjustments will need to be made in the here and now.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    eristdoof said:


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Another cherry picker.

    This was one poll, 300 people across something like 15 states, and as RCS pointed out it is unweighted. The standard for polls in GB is at least 1000 respondents with stratified sampling and post-hoc weighting.

    As Antohny Wells always says, the most likely explanation for a surprising result is that it is an outlier, unless and until other polls start corroborating it.
    There are better reasons than the polls to doubt Biden's chances.

    Look at the way Republicans are running with this Obamagate nonsense. They are going to savage Biden during a campaign and he's going to look old and weak and incapable.

    Look at the state Republicans in Wisconsin, striking down the stay home order from the Governor. They are going to use every state legislative and legal avenue they can invent to stop Democrats from voting and follow that up with gun-toting demonstrators who will stop Biden from "stealing" the election by stopping his voters from turning up to vote.

    The Democrats are still behaving as though they can win this with normal politics. They are wholly unprepared for the brutal, full-spectrum life and death struggle that Trump and the Republicans will unleash to retain the Presidency this November.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The problems remain. As I have said for trace and isolate 3 things are required. The ability to test fast. Literally every hour will be important if the contacts are to be traced before they in turn have had any opportunity to infect anyone else. We think it takes a few days for this thing to become infectious but we don't know. 4-5 days is far, far too long. I am not sure why we take this long when other countries can get results in 48 hours or even less but it needs to change.
    The quantity of testing available is important. When people are at home the number of tests is small because they should have very limited contact with anyone other than immediate family. If we are out and about again that is not the case. If someone has been on a train or a bus all those on the train or bus should be tested. If they have been to their office then those in the office need tested and the place sterilised. I think it is questionable whether the current 86k is going to be sufficient.
    Finally, we need the ability to trace those who have had material contact. That is going to require the app and it is not ready.

    I have been more anxious about ending the lock down and the economic consequences than most but the brutal truth here is that the government is jumping the gun. We are not ready to end the lockdown and won't be until these criteria are met. An increase in spread and the return of exponential growth is almost inevitable.

    Dare I suggest that this might have been a better target for SKS yesterday than an out of date guidance note?

    I think the "end of the lockdown" may exaggerate the situation. I think people are still very wary about going out. I went lovely walk yesterday evening from Swanwick to Warsash along the River Hamble. Normally on a sunny May evening you would see scores of people, i saw 4.
    I agree people will be more cautious and we all need to assess our own risks but the government is publishing sector by sector guidance on working safely. Here is an example: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/construction-and-other-outdoor-work

    Without fast testing, lots of testing and adequate tracing this will not work. For a start people need to get there.
    Construction is now a very different beast than it was before lockdown. We are still only working at 40% with most staff on Furlough. However for those that are working we have had to make many changes in their working practices including supplying pop up washing stations, social distancing, new PPE (plastic face coverings on their hard hats), sanitising kits, much more supervision etc etc. We are not allowing van sharing at the moment and any welfare units for breaks have been closed and our guys have to go and sit in their vans. We have an hourly deep cleaning routine for all onsite toilets and washing facilities. Jobs will take longer, however im sure that all these new procedures will help reduce infection. Our office is also totally different now, we have perspex screens everywhere.
    I take it that you came up with most of that yourselves before this guidance was published?
    But if your staff are still using public transport to get there there will be a spread of infection. And I fear that close proximity is in the nature of at least some of the work.
    The guidance was there from the 24th March on the Government Website. Also the Construction Leardership Council provide regular updates to their Site Operating Procedures, the first being produced on the 24th March 2020.

    https://www.constructionleadershipcouncil.co.uk/news/site-operating-procedures-during-covid-19/

    Thats why I got so annoyed when people kept saying there was no guidance.
    Thanks, that is really helpful.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.

    By that logic, Labour, the LDs and the SNP are in bigger trouble as they are against lifting the lockdown.

    Maybe you are right. Maybe its us that are in trouble because we simply don;t have a grown up anywhere near government. And for that many of us will pay dearly in the coming years. Through our wallets, through our health both mental and physical.
    In which case by leading the escape, Boris may be the one eyed man in the blind kingdom of the Uk.

    Also

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/13/attention-citizens-the-covid19-emergency-is-over/

    that is great
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Nigelb said:

    More pertinently, saving lives and saving the economy are not mutually exclusive priorities; they ought to be complementary:

    https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1260698195677663238

    Though only fair to point out this...

    S. Korea to create 1.56 million jobs in public sector
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/biz/2020/05/488_289548.html
    ...The government said Thursday that it plans to create over 1.56 million jobs in the public sector as part of emergency measures to fight the rapid increase in unemployment brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The announcement comes on the heels of the biggest year-on-year job losses in April for two decades, suffered mostly by low-income, temporary workers who are not subscribed to the state-run Employment Insurance plan.

    Of greater concern is the number of those experiencing temporary layoffs ― people who are statistically considered employed ― hovering at over 1 million for a second consecutive month, meaning those currently receiving unemployment benefits could lose their jobs altogether if the economy fails to pick up quickly.

    Yet experts question the efficacy of short-term, low quality jobs created with taxpayers' money, saying the measures will have little to no desired outcome without creating the environment to help resume much-stalled corporate activities via tax cuts and deregulation....

    ...The government will resume its job creation program that was temporarily halted due to the virus pandemic, making some 445,000 jobs available mostly to the elderly and those in the low income bracket. The jobs will involve outdoor work that does not require coming into close contact with other people.

    In addition to the resumption of the existing project, at least 550,000 new jobs will be created for young jobseekers and those with low incomes. For young jobseekers, 100,000 jobs related to digitization will be made available in the public sector and 50,000 at private firms.

    About 50,000 openings will be available for jobseekers who want to participate in paid career building activities to bolster their resume, while 300,000 jobs will be offered to people in the low income bracket.

    Around 50,000 jobs will be at small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that apply for state subsidies which are granted only if they hire new workers.

    State-run examinations for 48,000 civil service positions will resume, months after the process, including tests and interviews, was delayed due to the pandemic.
    ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    @Cyclefree so very sorry to hear your news - all best wishes to you and your family.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Impossible to discriminate those effects from effects of CV19 on the polls.
    The good thing about me is that I’m free of confirmation bias when it comes to Trump.

    Other punters are riddled with it on this site. They simply hate him too much.
    Please don't inject toilet duck.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    More pertinently, saving lives and saving the economy are not mutually exclusive priorities; they ought to be complementary:

    https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1260698195677663238

    Though only fair to point out this...

    S. Korea to create 1.56 million jobs in public sector
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/biz/2020/05/488_289548.html
    ...The government said Thursday that it plans to create over 1.56 million jobs in the public sector as part of emergency measures to fight the rapid increase in unemployment brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The announcement comes on the heels of the biggest year-on-year job losses in April for two decades, suffered mostly by low-income, temporary workers who are not subscribed to the state-run Employment Insurance plan.

    Of greater concern is the number of those experiencing temporary layoffs ― people who are statistically considered employed ― hovering at over 1 million for a second consecutive month, meaning those currently receiving unemployment benefits could lose their jobs altogether if the economy fails to pick up quickly.

    Yet experts question the efficacy of short-term, low quality jobs created with taxpayers' money, saying the measures will have little to no desired outcome without creating the environment to help resume much-stalled corporate activities via tax cuts and deregulation....

    ...The government will resume its job creation program that was temporarily halted due to the virus pandemic, making some 445,000 jobs available mostly to the elderly and those in the low income bracket. The jobs will involve outdoor work that does not require coming into close contact with other people.

    In addition to the resumption of the existing project, at least 550,000 new jobs will be created for young jobseekers and those with low incomes. For young jobseekers, 100,000 jobs related to digitization will be made available in the public sector and 50,000 at private firms.

    About 50,000 openings will be available for jobseekers who want to participate in paid career building activities to bolster their resume, while 300,000 jobs will be offered to people in the low income bracket.

    Around 50,000 jobs will be at small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that apply for state subsidies which are granted only if they hire new workers.

    State-run examinations for 48,000 civil service positions will resume, months after the process, including tests and interviews, was delayed due to the pandemic.
    ...
    This is what i said ages ago, you run communism lite till the virus is over; the demand simply won't be there in the private sector.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    eristdoof said:


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
    Another complacent in a state of denial.

    Polls up until now have effectively been mid-term, and meaningless. Now, as the candidates firm up and November hoves into view, we're starting to see a bit of a change.
    Another cherry picker.

    This was one poll, 300 people across something like 15 states, and as RCS pointed out it is unweighted. The standard for polls in GB is at least 1000 respondents with stratified sampling and post-hoc weighting.

    As Antohny Wells always says, the most likely explanation for a surprising result is that it is an outlier, unless and until other polls start corroborating it.
    I’m not interested in cherry picking. I have no agenda.

    I want to make money in November.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Quicker than JFK.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited May 2020
    As for some on topic stuff:

    1) Of course there were going to be checks in the Irish Sea. Ever since Boris did what he had told us no British Prime Minister would ever consider doing.

    2) Yes he is diminished and weaker since CV-19 and who could blame him; it sounds like a horrible disease especially if there are comorbidities or you are obese.

    It seems that I am in a minority of PB Tories in wanting a PM who is 100% rather than one who, through no fault of his own, diminished and not fighting fit because we need a PM now who is totally on top of his game. Whatever that is. Hence I'd take Raab or Gove or Sunak or even Boris right now, 50-75% of whom I am deeply suspicious of and would rather not be PM. But just as long as they are firing on all cylinders, I'm ok with it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited May 2020
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hard for the Sun to go downmarket, but it has. Boris will sleep a little more sweetly.
    Harry is an excellent choice. Superb journalist.
    You like Tory Bear. 🤷‍♂️

    I think he should bring back the old hairdo to match Boris.

    image
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Here is my armchair solution to the coronavirus outbreak, as it now stands.

    -Develop 2 treatment pathways.

    -Less severe, diagnosis (via digital appointment), at home test to confirm diagnosis as much as is currently possible. Treatment at home. To include detailed advice and support, and drugs, even if these are only zinc and vitamin C - they will still do a lot for people's morale.

    -More severe, treatment in a dedicated coronavirus hospital, and convalescence in a dedicated coronavirus nursing home. Staffed by the immune. Get it out of the wider NHS totally.

    -Get the wider NHS back treating the backlog.

    -Whilst these are being established, begin a staggered return to an open economy with social distancing. Monitor closely, and leave the major risk factors out until the 'coronavirus health service' has been set up.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,489
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hard for the Sun to go downmarket, but it has. Boris will sleep a little more sweetly.
    Harry is an excellent choice. Superb journalist.
    You like Tory Bear. 🤷‍♂️

    You dislike him for the same reasons?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    TOPPING said:

    As for some on topic stuff:

    2) Yes he is diminished and weaker since CV-19 and who could blame him; it sounds like a horrible disease especially if there are comorbidities or you are obese.

    Depends if its permanent or not - he is likely to feel very different in the weeks and months ahead.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,931
    edited May 2020
    Did we get PMQs wrong? Suppose it is not that SKS was good but that Boris was uncharacteristically bad because Covid-19 has left him unable to concentrate for more than short periods? Or even think clearly because Boris did not seem to realise SKS was directly quoting government guidelines, despite having just been told, and he completely missed SKS's question on excess but not covid-19 deaths. If so, @eadric's 8/1 against Boris leaving next year might be dashed by earlier resignation. Either that or Boris will recover and master future PMQs as any Prime Minister should.

    ETA the markets seem to agree as Boris is half the price to go this year, despite there being only half the year left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited May 2020
    TOPPING said:

    @Cyclefree so very sorry to hear your news - all best wishes to you and your family.

    Seconded, condolences Cyclefree
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    @NigelB, @Cyclefree, @DixieDean, @Charles and everyone else who has lost loved ones, may you find peace in your heart and healing in your soul in these darkest times.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hard for the Sun to go downmarket, but it has. Boris will sleep a little more sweetly.
    Harry is an excellent choice. Superb journalist.
    You like Tory Bear. 🤷‍♂️

    You dislike him for the same reasons?
    Never had much time for the Guido/ToryBear gang. Right wing tabloid/gutter journalism surprisingly ain't my bag. He will no doubt be an asset to the Boris in the Sun.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Boris is in big trouble. People are sensing the weakness, cowardice and incompetence in this government and it is being blackmailed left right and centre.

    The teaching unions over school returns.
    Employers threatening mass redundancy if they have to chip in for furlough payments.
    Incandescent Tory MPs threatening to cancel the Sunak credit card and veto tax rises.

    To name but three.

    I don;t see where Boris goes to be honest. Lockdown was a very bad decision made into a catastrophic decision by prolonging it. The baby steps emergence is the icing on the sh8tstorm cake.

    It turns out there were reasons why no government in history ever restricted the liberty of its healthy citizens or shut down their economy. Ever.

    I think Hitler and Stalin might have just restricted liberties of healthy citizens a tad
This discussion has been closed.