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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters co

SystemSystem Posts: 12,185
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters could be reflected in the May 2nd locals where the Tories are the most vulnerable

A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited April 2013
    First!

    @Plato Someone mentioned Southland the other day...

    I enjoyed Southland. The 'nugget' style of filming makes it an interesting change in genre format. Gritty, yes, but not unpleasantly so. It was almost cancelled a while ago and was rescued with a massively slashed cast and budget. That actually made it better imho.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For our resident IT nerds - this is a cool historical factoid.

    RT @Know: Price of 1 gig of storage over time:
    1981 $300,000
    1987 $50,000
    1990 $10,000
    1994 $1,000
    1997 $100
    2000 $10
    2004 $1
    2012 $0.10
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    GeoffM said:

    First!

    @Plato Someone mentioned Southland the other day...

    I enjoyed Southland. The 'nugget' style of filming makes it an interesting change in genre format. Gritty, yes, but not unpleasantly so. It was almost cancelled a while ago and was rescued with a massively slashed cast and budget. That actually made it better imho.

    Thanks - will try again, it was late when I watched the most recent episode and it was all bit too loud and sweary so it got zapped.

    Rogue has potential but they really need to turn down the over-acting - I'm exhausted just watching the characters trying to out tough each other by endlessly rolling their shoulders/legs akimbo/saying EFF EFF EFF loudly.

    Red Widow is another one has possibilities but its disappeared and suspect its been cancelled too hastily.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    WARNING - this joke is not suitable for Scottish Nationalists. Do not click on this link and then complain about it :^ )

    RT @MackieJonathan: This joke will never cease being funny. #scotlab13 http://twitpic.com/cknw6y < EPIC
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
    For me the big consequence of the Ukip surge is not going to be the number of seats but how the syphoning off of support will impact on the Tory performance.
    I'm curious to see the breakdown/analysis of the UKIP vote after the elections.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Plato said:

    This joke will never cease being funny. #scotlab13 http://twitpic.com/cknw6y < EPIC

    As funny as a "serial labour voter" too clueless to know when someone is taking the p*** out of Scotish labour?

    Unspoofable.


    EPIC > LOL

    ;^)

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    For me the big consequence of the Ukip surge is not going to be the number of seats but how the syphoning off of support will impact on the Tory performance.
    Maybe, but if they do well then number of seats going to be the headline for them and they are unlikely to be too upset if it is.

    Shadsy also seems to be pointing to a figure of 50(ish) though no doubt there will be a great deal of expectations management spin from the tories and the lib dems between now and May.
    Got a new market up at Ladbrokes for the local elections.
    How many seats will UKIP gain?
    Evens Under 50
    2/1 50-100
    5/2 Over 100
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    LDs look like a pretty dispirited bunch in that IPSOS graphic.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    One of UKIP's best areas is likely to be Staffordshire where in 2009 they won more seats than Labour (4 vs 3): (the reds had previously been running the council). I've put together a target list for the party in that county although unfortunately there have been significant boundary changes so it's more of theoretical than practical use:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dER0ZjZZR1VzMHgzTUR2OFFtWTBsOXc#gid=0
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Neither of which are good news for the Tories, and stories about Grant Shapps being useless are already surfacing in preparation.

    They've been circulating for far longer than that. Perhaps Shapps being so useless in the first place but still promoted was yet another Osbrowne AAA master strategy? ;^)

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sophy Gardner, who was selected today for Labour in Gloucester, has an interesting CV:
    "Sophy Gardner is a former RAF Wing Commander, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. She was also in charge of RAF transport and refuelling assets during the 9/11 terrorist attacks and Afghanistan operations 2001-2, for which she was awarded the MBE. She’s an advocate for Labour Friends of the Forces, and runs her own communications strategy consultancy. Gardner was previously shortlisted for the Feltham and Heston and Rotherham selections.

    It is worth noting that Gardner was selected from an Open Shortlist – breaking the recent bad run for female candidates in such selections."
    http://labourlist.org/2013/04/gloucester-clp-select-their-ppc/

    Gloucester is a crucial Labour target, at number 39 with 68 gains required for a majority:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
  • RobofishRobofish Posts: 1
    SeanT said:

    If the EU was the EU of the Noughties, there would be no vote, and if somehow there was a vote, it would be lost by the Eurosceptics.

    But the EU is changing as we speak: and becoming more hostile to the UK. Moreover, it is becoming more hostile to the most important and influential part of the UK: London, the City, the south east of England, financial services.

    The EU is attempting to strangle London in several ways, from the bankers bonus cap, to a slew of new regulations, to the new FTT - which the UK is now fighting in the courts....

    The funny thing about that is, as far as I'm aware, all the anti-City policies the EU is now pushing for - the FTT, the bonus cap, etc - are generally popular with the British public. If put to a referendum, they'd probably pass here. There's something ironic about the British business community turning towards Euroscepticism over policies that most British people actually favour.

    That means, IMO, it's not a good idea for Osborne to make these policies the basis of a bust-up with the EU. There are plenty of better and more popular grounds on which to do that; but breaking up with Brussels in order to protect the banks would be terrible politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited April 2013
    I'll say this for UKIP - thank goodness it's given political wonks a lot more to talk about than most years. Obviously they've been around for ages, but the last year has been something of a breakthrough for them in perception terms (still to be seen if in electoral terms), and so without that rise it'd be exactly the same arguments as before, whereas at least there's some variety now.

    The Tories are definitely worried though. I've seen hugely Tory heavy majority areas all but beg people not to vote UKIP on leaflets, as most UKIP policies are more national to take one example. Then UKIP bubble could burst so easily, but for the moment the, well, momentum is pretty intense.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Could only get 50 on at 5/2 so will be going to betting shop to top up..
    Been speaking to Surrey cons today and they are very concerned that UKIP are going to clean up in certain ward areas. Add Kent into the mix where they are ashore in within many areas then I think the establishment are in for a big shock over the next month.
    Shapps also is a disaster...makes Warsi look competent.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    @Robofish

    Terrible politics is what Osborne does best.

    Leaving that aside, most of the city, and more pertinently, most of the tories city funders want to stay in the EU regardless of bankers bonuses etc.

    That's why Cameron left the massive loophole in his cast iron IN/OUT referendum pledge.

    If it ever came to a referendum he would campaign to stay in and it would tear the tories apart. Not that it will ever get to a referendum. Lisbon proved that.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @danielrhamilton: It speaks volumes about the challenges Italy faces that its leaders had to beg an 87 year old Communist to seek a 2nd term as President.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pedant's corner: have we reached the point where "syphon" is acceptable? The Greek word from which it is ultimately derived is spelled with an iota, so "siphon" is etymologically more correct, but the online dictionaries all seem OK with "syphon". Am I ridiculously old-fashioned to dislike this spelling?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Plato said:

    RT @danielrhamilton: It speaks volumes about the challenges Italy faces that its leaders had to beg an 87 year old Communist to seek a 2nd term as President.

    And it's a 7 year term as well so he'll be 94 at the end of it.

    In fact he's a few months older than Margaret Thatcher.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,252
    Just got home from Dirty Dicks. PBers really are the best !
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Robofish said:

    ...That means, IMO, it's not a good idea for Osborne to make these policies the basis of a bust-up with the EU. There are plenty of better and more popular grounds on which to do that; but breaking up with Brussels in order to protect the banks would be terrible politics.

    Agree, although the easy way to defuse all of the potential "What have the Romans ever done for us?" arguments is simply observing that if it's such a good idea we'd be perfectly able to do it here and with the bonus of direct accountability.

  • Afternoon,

    I can only offer my perspective from canvassing and assisting in one county division in Lancashire. It's a Conservative division and previously well canvassed, but sitting county councillor standing down and on paer should remain Conservative with a narrow majority (Labour have more than one district councillor in the division)

    Having canvassed on three occasions, the Conservative pledge numbers are holding up because the new candidate has worked hard and has converted probables into definites and topped up with new pledges from previous uncanvassed. This has cancelled out the loss of Conservatives to UKIP which is certainly taking place. We are only canvassing definites, proabbles and uncanvassed but the candidate says that Labour voters are also tempted by UKIP. I know one former Labour councillor not far from me signed the UKIP candidates nomination papers.

    In areas where the Conservative candidate has not worked so hard then I could see 25% of the previous 2009 Conservative vote stay at home or move to UKIP.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    Plato said:

    I know some of us make fun of Lefty hypocrites - but surely Romany 'Thatcher Death Party Organiser' Blythe is in the running for the 2013 Award? Fake breasts on the NHS because of *low self-esteem* and bought her council house using Right to Buy? And made £150k in the process? It's a bingo card of Do What I Say, Not What I Do.

    It's just stellar stuff that eclipses even Ed 'First Class Travel Millionaire Will Changer To Avoid Tax' Milliband.

    I'm sticking to watching DVDs about fictional characters - they appear to have more scruples.

    The updated Mail article. With added wincing. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311559/Thatcher-death-party-organiser-150-000-council-home-bought-PM-s-right-buy-scheme.html

    That really is unspoofable...

    How on earth women can get boob jobs on the NHS because of lack of self esteem is beyond a joke. Imagine a bloke tried a similar thing due to his lack of size making him feel bad!

    I dont know if UKIP would support this kind of nonsense, but the fact that it actually happens under the government we have and the one we had, is just one of the many reasons why I would never vote for any of the big three
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,422
    GeoffM said:

    First!

    @Plato Someone mentioned Southland the other day...

    I enjoyed Southland. The 'nugget' style of filming makes it an interesting change in genre format. Gritty, yes, but not unpleasantly so. It was almost cancelled a while ago and was rescued with a massively slashed cast and budget. That actually made it better imho.

    Geoff, apologies for jinxing your choice, very disappointing run indeed.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    @Sam

    What I find most peculiar is that this lady who proudly stands holding a giant Hammer&Sickle flag is suffering from Small Breast Syndrome [I made this up but assume someone with shares in an implant factory has tried to make it a psychiatric condition].

    Aren't women meant to be equal to men? The Soviets for all their ills did a lot for female scientists etc under their version Wimmins Lib.

    Given Lefties like Romany rail against Page Three et al and *objectifying* the female form - why is she giving a moment's thought to her cup size? Or bizarrely assessing her *esteem* by this? She's not even smart enough to use her sexuality a la Katie Price who shamelessly played an angle to win and outsmarted a lot of men's wallets in the process.

    It's quite the most bizarre thing I've come across re political news in ages.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    malcolmg said:


    Geoff, apologies for jinxing your choice, very disappointing run indeed.

    No problem, I'll know for next time! :-)

    Doing well at Newbury and Thirsk today so I am nicely up on the day regardless. Hope you did better elsewhere if you were punting more widely as well.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Just got home from Dirty Dicks. PBers really are the best !

    Christ, were you found in the Gents this afternoon? ;^ )
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Sam said at 3:48:
    "How on earth women can get boob jobs on the NHS because of lack of self esteem is beyond a joke. Imagine a bloke tried a similar thing due to his lack of size making him feel bad!"

    And don't forget that homeopathy is available too on the NHS. Now that's a right royal joke.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,422
    GeoffM said:

    malcolmg said:


    Geoff, apologies for jinxing your choice, very disappointing run indeed.

    No problem, I'll know for next time! :-)

    Doing well at Newbury and Thirsk today so I am nicely up on the day regardless. Hope you did better elsewhere if you were punting more widely as well.

    Geoff, sadly not , lucky the jumps season is over, my pot is almost empty.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,082
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:


    What if the mood of business does switch? What if it becomes as eurosceptic as that of the public? At that point we will get a referendum very quickly, whoever is in power - and we will leave.

    Seems to me we're in a place where several different aspects of 'mood' could switch fairly quickly - that's why I believe a government of any political hue needs to be able to respond rapidly.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,252
    Plato said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just got home from Dirty Dicks. PBers really are the best !

    Christ, were you found in the Gents this afternoon? ;^ )
    Stopped overnight in London, then had a pleasent stroll from St Pauls to St Pancras where I caught the 11:55 to Sheffield. Then a tram ride and walk home :}
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,416
    Robofish said:

    SeanT said:

    If the EU was the EU of the Noughties, there would be no vote, and if somehow there was a vote, it would be lost by the Eurosceptics.

    But the EU is changing as we speak: and becoming more hostile to the UK. Moreover, it is becoming more hostile to the most important and influential part of the UK: London, the City, the south east of England, financial services.

    The EU is attempting to strangle London in several ways, from the bankers bonus cap, to a slew of new regulations, to the new FTT - which the UK is now fighting in the courts....

    The funny thing about that is, as far as I'm aware, all the anti-City policies the EU is now pushing for - the FTT, the bonus cap, etc - are generally popular with the British public. If put to a referendum, they'd probably pass here. There's something ironic about the British business community turning towards Euroscepticism over policies that most British people actually favour.

    That means, IMO, it's not a good idea for Osborne to make these policies the basis of a bust-up with the EU. There are plenty of better and more popular grounds on which to do that; but breaking up with Brussels in order to protect the banks would be terrible politics.
    They might well be popular if the came from a British government, but not if they're being proposed by the EU.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Toms said:

    Sam said at 3:48:
    "How on earth women can get boob jobs on the NHS because of lack of self esteem is beyond a joke. Imagine a bloke tried a similar thing due to his lack of size making him feel bad!"

    And don't forget that homeopathy is available too on the NHS. Now that's a right royal joke.

    Though I think homoeopathy is junk science at best - it does have a weird placebo effect. I know of two friends who tried everything to give up smoking = patches, cold turkey, hypnosis and then tried some sugar pills from Boots - eh voila! These people held down serious nerdy jobs and weren't religious - I've no idea what clicked the switch in their heads, but it did and they never smoked again.

    If it works for them - I won't knock it for things that aren't imminently life threatening. If anyone tried to suggest it for something that was - I'd crack their heads together.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    FPT.
    @Plato:
    "I wonder if the reason the PEB feels so authentic is because Kippers haven't yet fallen into the trap of being lead by PR gurus and hence over-packaged. They'll get there eventually - but its good to see them moving on from amateurish. That logo has go - it is so wrong on so many levels..."

    The Logo is going to change and be redesigned. It will happen after May 2nd, of course, but I don't know exactly when. Actually the sooner the better, as it will take some time for the new logo to catch on. However changing a logo and perhaps name is tricky. When the Tories changed their emblem from a union jack based design to a pathetic turquoise tree (nearly green in fact), those with political nous knew what that change portended.

    Just come back from a relaxing walk over Barns common. The trees are now beginning to give forth leaf. Spring at last?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Toms said:

    Sam said at 3:48:
    "How on earth women can get boob jobs on the NHS because of lack of self esteem is beyond a joke. Imagine a bloke tried a similar thing due to his lack of size making him feel bad!"

    And don't forget that homeopathy is available too on the NHS. Now that's a right royal joke.

    Perhaps the answer is to offer Small Breast Syndrome patients on the NHS homoeopathy - kills two birds with one stone so to speak ;^)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    @MikeK

    TBH, I thought the Tories made a mistake shifting from the Union Jack Torch - it was a great logo that said a great many things all at the same time.

    In terms of branding = a Does What It Says On The Tin image

    - Union
    - Patriotic
    - Strong
    - Pushing Forward
    - Not Scared, Just Clear
    - A light leading the way
    - a hint of Justice about it

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38851000/jpg/_38851411_logo203.jpg
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,416

    Sorry I couldn't make it to Dirty Dicks.

    IMO, they'll win c.50 county council divisions, (currently they have 10).

    I think it's hard to predict where they'll do best, and where they'll hurt the Conservatives most, because the Lib Dem vote will be well down on 2009 (a good year for the party) as well as the Conservative vote. And, in most county councils, the Lib Dems are the main challengers to the Conservatives.

    Overall, I'd predict something like Labour winning Durham, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire.

    Conservatives winning Herts., Essex, Lincs., Leicestershire, North Yorishire, Surrey, Kent, West Sussex, Kent, Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset, Norfolk, Oxfordshire. The Conservatives should hold Cambridgeshire, but UKIP could break through in Fenland, and Huntingdonshire, taking it to NOC.

    Lib Dem possibly winning Somerset,

    NOC Cornwall, East Sussex, Suffolk, Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Devon, Shropshire.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    Ooops... this has an AGW/IPCC feel about it... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22223190. I'm not bothered about the case made for one or the other side - but it shows that *academic papers* can be flawed and then cited again and again a la Dr Andrew Wakefield.

    "This week, economists have been astonished to find that a famous academic paper often used to make the case for austerity cuts contains major errors. Another surprise is that the mistakes, by two eminent Harvard professors, were spotted by a student doing his homework.

    It's 4 January 2010, the Marriott Hotel in Atlanta. At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Professor Carmen Reinhart and the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ken Rogoff, are presenting a research paper called Growth in a Time of Debt.

    At a time of economic crisis, their finding resonates - economic growth slows dramatically when the size of a country's debt rises above 90% of Gross Domestic Product, the overall size of the economy.

    Word about this paper spread. Policymakers wanted to know more. And so did student Thomas Herndon. His professors at the University of Massachusetts Amherst had set his graduate class an assignment - pick an economics paper and see if you can replicate the results. It's a good exercise for aspiring researchers.

    Thomas chose Growth in a Time of Debt. It was getting a lot of attention, but intuitively, he says, he was dubious about its findings. Some key figures tackling the global recession found this paper a useful addition to the debate at the heart of which is this key question: is it best to let debt increase in the hope of stimulating economic growth to get out of the slump, or is it better to cut spending and raise taxes aggressively to get public debt under control?

    EU commissioner Olli Rehn and influential US Republican politician Paul Ryan have both quoted a 90% debt-to-GDP limit to support their austerity strategies..."
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    tim said:

    Teacher purchased from council in 2006 for £141,000 and sold it for £298,000
    ... discounts at these levels.

    At what "levels"? The sale price of a council house was based on its then full market valuation and only included a discount to reflect rent paid and depending on how long tenants had been living in the house. Plus if they sold their house before a minimum period had expired they would have to pay back a proportion of the discount anyway.

    The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:


    The Logo is going to change and be redesigned. It will happen after May 2nd, of course, but I don't know exactly when. Actually the sooner the better, as it will take some time for the new logo to catch on. However changing a logo and perhaps name is tricky. When the Tories changed their emblem from a union jack based design to a pathetic turquoise tree (nearly green in fact), those with political nous knew what that change portended.

    Just come back from a relaxing walk over Barns common. The trees are now beginning to give forth leaf. Spring at last?

    If UKIP want to change their logo, OK. Changing their name would be silly.

    Spring at last? God I hope so!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,976
    West Ham - striking a blow for East London!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2013
    MikeK said:

    FPT.
    @Plato:
    "I wonder if the reason the PEB feels so authentic is because Kippers haven't yet fallen into the trap of being lead by PR gurus and hence over-packaged. They'll get there eventually - but its good to see them moving on from amateurish. That logo has go - it is so wrong on so many levels..."

    The Logo is going to change and be redesigned. It will happen after May 2nd, of course, but I don't know exactly when. Actually the sooner the better, as it will take some time for the new logo to catch on. However changing a logo and perhaps name is tricky. When the Tories changed their emblem from a union jack based design to a pathetic turquoise tree (nearly green in fact), those with political nous knew what that change portended.

    Just come back from a relaxing walk over Barns common. The trees are now beginning to give forth leaf. Spring at last?

    MikeK you seem very well informed on UKIP -recall you posting membership numbers.

    Seems to me you have some kind of official or senior volunteer role. Would you mind letting us know? It's always good to be able to understand where people are coming from, even if they are not speaking in an official capacity.

    That said, if you'd rather not then feel free to tell me to p*** off.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2013
    Boston:

    Something about the investigation.

    How does someone who has:

    a) come on the US authorities radar regarding Islamic extremisim
    b) would have been noted as visiting Russia on a long trip
    c) lived within striking distance of the attacks
    d) had apparently become a lot more radicalised in recent times and communicated that radicalism

    Take near 4 days to come up as a suspect and one that they made public by passing out pictures and asking the public to help identify him?

    The family say that the elder brother was pestered by US authorities whilst the FBI say they questioned him once regarding links to Islamic extremism and found nothing. I suppose it depends who the US authorities in question were.

    There is possibly more depth to these guys. I find it doubtful the investigators didn't have them on the list early.

  • How does any politician hope to reform the NHS for the better when we have half a town marching in opposition to changes to a hospital that killed hundreds of their family and friends? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260

    I pity poor old Jeremy Lefroy the local MP - a good man who will have to spout stuff he knows is nonsense.

    Why have we got such a blind spot in this country to the failings of the NHS?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Plato said:

    Ooops... this has an AGW/IPCC feel about it... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22223190. I'm not bothered about the case made for one or the other side - but it shows that *academic papers* can be flawed and then cited again and again a la Dr Andrew Wakefield.

    "This week, economists have been astonished to find that a famous academic paper often used to make the case for austerity cuts contains major errors. Another surprise is that the mistakes, by two eminent Harvard professors, were spotted by a student doing his homework.

    It's 4 January 2010, the Marriott Hotel in Atlanta. At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Professor Carmen Reinhart and the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ken Rogoff, are presenting a research paper called Growth in a Time of Debt.

    At a time of economic crisis, their finding resonates - economic growth slows dramatically when the size of a country's debt rises above 90% of Gross Domestic Product, the overall size of the economy.

    Word about this paper spread. Policymakers wanted to know more. And so did student Thomas Herndon. His professors at the University of Massachusetts Amherst had set his graduate class an assignment - pick an economics paper and see if you can replicate the results. It's a good exercise for aspiring researchers.

    Thomas chose Growth in a Time of Debt. It was getting a lot of attention, but intuitively, he says, he was dubious about its findings. Some key figures tackling the global recession found this paper a useful addition to the debate at the heart of which is this key question: is it best to let debt increase in the hope of stimulating economic growth to get out of the slump, or is it better to cut spending and raise taxes aggressively to get public debt under control?

    EU commissioner Olli Rehn and influential US Republican politician Paul Ryan have both quoted a 90% debt-to-GDP limit to support their austerity strategies..."

    Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff have made an initial response to the 'Excel error' revelations:

    On a cursory look, it seems that that Herndon Ash and Pollen also find lower growth when debt is over 90% (they find 0-30 debt/GDP , 4.2% growth; 30-60, 3.1 %; 60-90, 3.2%,; 90-120, 2.4% and over 120, 1.6%). These results are, in fact, of a similar order of magnitude to the detailed country by country results we present in table 1 of the AER paper, and to the median results in Figure 2. And they are similar to estimates in much of the large and growing literature, including our own attached August 2012 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper (joint with Vincent Reinhart) . However, these strong similarities are not what these authors choose to emphasize.

    The 2012 JEP paper largely anticipates and addresses any concerns about aggregation (the main bone of contention here), The JEP paper not only provides individual country averages (as we already featured in Table 1 of the 2010 AER paper) but it goes further and provide episode by episode averages. Not surprisingly, the results are broadly similar to our original 2010 AER table 1 averages and to the median results that also figure prominently.. It is hard to see how one can interpret these tables and individual country results as showing that public debt overhang over 90% is clearly benign.

    The JEP paper with Vincent Reinhart looks at all public debt overhang episodes for advanced countries in our database, dating back to 1800. The overall average result shows that public debt overhang episodes (over 90% GDP for five years or more) are associated with 1.2% lower growth as compared to growth when debt is under 90%. (We also include in our tables the small number of shorter episodes.) Note that because the historical public debt overhang episodes last an average of over 20 years, the cumulative effects of small growth differences are potentially quite large. It is utterly misleading to speak of a 1% growth differential that lasts 10-25 years as small.

    By the way, we are very careful in all our papers to speak of “association” and not “causality” since of course our 2009 book THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT showed that debt explodes in the immediate aftermath of financial crises. This is why we restrict attention to longer debt overhang periods in the JEP paper, though as noted there are only a very limited number of short ones. Moreover, we have generally emphasized the 1% differential median result in all our discussions and subsequent writing, precisely to be understated and cautious, and also in recognition of the results in our core Table 1 (AER paper).

    Lastly, our 2012 JEP paper cites papers from the BIS, IMF and OECD (among others) which virtually all find very similar conclusions to original findings, albeit with slight differences in threshold, and many nuances of alternative interpretation.. These later papers, by the way, use a variety of methodologies for dealing with non-linearity and also for trying to determine causation. Of course much further research is needed as the data we developed and is being used in these studies is new. Nevertheless, the weight of the evidence to date –including this latest comment — seems entirely consistent with our original interpretation of the data in our 2010 AER paper.


    It all rather appears to be a storm in a leftie tea mug. It got tim excited though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    It's a bit annoying when a comment is removed from a site but you can still see all of the replies. An example is this article on the Guardian website - the first comment was removed but it still has loads of replies:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/20/boston-suspect-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-captured-alive#start-of-comments
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    GeoffM said:

    tim said:

    Teacher purchased from council in 2006 for £141,000 and sold it for £298,000
    ... discounts at these levels.

    At what "levels"? The sale price of a council house was based on its then full market valuation and only included a discount to reflect rent paid and depending on how long tenants had been living in the house. Plus if they sold their house before a minimum period had expired they would have to pay back a proportion of the discount anyway.

    The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".


    In other words, the state subsidised the purchase of council owned properties.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,978
    Plato said:

    Ooops... this has an AGW/IPCC feel about it... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22223190. I'm not bothered about the case made for one or the other side - but it shows that *academic papers* can be flawed and then cited again and again a la Dr Andrew Wakefield.

    "This week, economists have been astonished to find that a famous academic paper often used to make the case for austerity cuts contains major errors. Another surprise is that the mistakes, by two eminent Harvard professors, were spotted by a student doing his homework.

    It's 4 January 2010, the Marriott Hotel in Atlanta. At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Professor Carmen Reinhart and the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ken Rogoff, are presenting a research paper called Growth in a Time of Debt.

    At a time of economic crisis, their finding resonates - economic growth slows dramatically when the size of a country's debt rises above 90% of Gross Domestic Product, the overall size of the economy.

    Word about this paper spread. Policymakers wanted to know more. And so did student Thomas Herndon. His professors at the University of Massachusetts Amherst had set his graduate class an assignment - pick an economics paper and see if you can replicate the results. It's a good exercise for aspiring researchers.

    Thomas chose Growth in a Time of Debt. It was getting a lot of attention, but intuitively, he says, he was dubious about its findings. Some key figures tackling the global recession found this paper a useful addition to the debate at the heart of which is this key question: is it best to let debt increase in the hope of stimulating economic growth to get out of the slump, or is it better to cut spending and raise taxes aggressively to get public debt under control?

    EU commissioner Olli Rehn and influential US Republican politician Paul Ryan have both quoted a 90% debt-to-GDP limit to support their austerity strategies..."

    I feel a little sorry for Reinhart and Rogoff. They made a mistake with their data (in fact, more than one), but they were bright enough to release the data so others can use that data. And that also means that any mistakes might be found, or counter-papers written.

    They deserve a little credit for that. Too many scientists hide and purposely obfuscate their data for a number of reasons.

    Talking of which, a scientists got jailed earlier this week for falsifying data on a pre-clincal drugs trial. What an asshat.

    http://www.pharmatimes.com/Article/13-04-19/UK_pharma_scientist_jailed_over_trial_fraud.aspx
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Napolitano re-elected as President of Italian Republic. Counting still underway, but he has already passed the 504 votes required-
    First time a President is re-elected for another term.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    GeoffM said:

    tim said:

    Teacher purchased from council in 2006 for £141,000 and sold it for £298,000
    ... discounts at these levels.

    At what "levels"? The sale price of a council house was based on its then full market valuation and only included a discount to reflect rent paid and depending on how long tenants had been living in the house. Plus if they sold their house before a minimum period had expired they would have to pay back a proportion of the discount anyway.

    The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".


    In other words, the state subsidised the purchase of council owned properties.

    I believe that the correct lefty approved term is "redistribution of wealth", in this case from the state to a "key worker" to allow them to live in an expensive area.

    Much as the removal of the "spare room subsidy" encourages the redistribution of housing according to their needs.

    From each according to their means, and to each according to their needs.

    It seems that some socialists are not keeping up with policies that match their slogans.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,859
    Betting Post

    Backed Alonso for the win at 2.62, hedged at 1.25:
    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/bahrain-pre-race.html
  • samsam Posts: 727

    MikeK said:


    The Logo is going to change and be redesigned. It will happen after May 2nd, of course, but I don't know exactly when. Actually the sooner the better, as it will take some time for the new logo to catch on. However changing a logo and perhaps name is tricky. When the Tories changed their emblem from a union jack based design to a pathetic turquoise tree (nearly green in fact), those with political nous knew what that change portended.

    Just come back from a relaxing walk over Barns common. The trees are now beginning to give forth leaf. Spring at last?

    If UKIP want to change their logo, OK. Changing their name would be silly.

    Spring at last? God I hope so!
    Farage said on last weeks Sunday Politics that the name is UKIP and not the Uk Independence Party anymore
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @AveryLP.

    Seems like there's a queue to give hapless George a good kicking today

    IMF steps up call for Osborne to abandon austerity plans as row escalates
    A row between George Osborne and the International Monetary Fund over Britain’s economic strategy has escalated after the fund’s deputy managing director joined those urging the Chancellor to abandon his austerity plans.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10007727/IMF-steps-up-call-for-Osborne-to-abandon-austerity-plans-as-row-escalates.html


    The Treasury select committee is deeply unimpressed by Osborne's Help To Buy scheme
    The plan to help first-time buyers is "very much a work in progress", say Andrew Tyrie and colleagues.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/treasury-select-committee-deeply-unimpressed-osbornes-help-buy-scheme


    The IMF and Andrew Tyrie's Treasury Select Committee, all lefties.

    First, tim, you have to provide evidence that the IMF has criticised the UK government's fiscal policies and performance.

    I have asked you and Ben twice to provide evidence of such criticism by direct quotation of Christine Lagarde's response to Ed Conway's question at the IMF press conference in Washington.

    Neither you nor Ben have so far responded to my request. As the whole narrative of criticism originates from Lagarde's response to Conway, I would have thought providing this evidence would be a simple task.

    Here is a link to a video clip of Lagarde's complete response to Conway:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1080069/lagarde-imf-may-urge-osborne-over-austerity

    She makes it clear that the IMF supports Osborne's fiscal consolidation plans (this is repeated twice); that the IMF position on the UK hasn't changed since its last published review of the UK economy; and, that it has always been the position of the IMF that the pace of consolidation should be reviewed in the event of lower than expected growth outcomes.

    She does state that UK growth has "not been very good", but this applies to almost all countries under IMF observation and as the UK's growth is currently higher than all other EU large countries, Osborne's plans must be the least of her worries at present.

    Conway is attempting to create a "story" out of nothing in order to cover his error in attributing the previous day's ramblings of I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange to official IMF policy.

    Growth stimulus will be discussed with the Treasury during the IMF's upcoming review of the UK economy, but the discussions are far more likely to concentrate on the optimal level and scope of monetary stimulus by the Bank of England than any change in fiscal plans.

    Anyway, I wait for your direct quote from Lagarde to substantiate your claims. You should note I am an eternal optimist and fully expect your delivery.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    More evidence of the old fogey UKIP vote

    https://twitter.com/alexandralswann/status/325626604548145152

    And an opinium poll

    UKIP (@UKIP)
    20/04/2013 17:34
    Latest Opinium poll for the Observer has UKIP on 17%. LibDems on 8%. #NewThirdParty
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    738 votes for Napolitano
    997 the total number of voters
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    Napolitano re-elected as President of Italian Republic. Counting still underway, but he has already passed the 504 votes required-
    First time a President is re-elected for another term.

    How many terms do the Italians expect Napolitano to serve, Andrea?

    He was born before Margaret Thatcher!

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Robofish said:

    SeanT said:

    If the EU was the EU of the Noughties, there would be no vote, and if somehow there was a vote, it would be lost by the Eurosceptics.

    But the EU is changing as we speak: and becoming more hostile to the UK. Moreover, it is becoming more hostile to the most important and influential part of the UK: London, the City, the south east of England, financial services.

    The EU is attempting to strangle London in several ways, from the bankers bonus cap, to a slew of new regulations, to the new FTT - which the UK is now fighting in the courts....

    The funny thing about that is, as far as I'm aware, all the anti-City policies the EU is now pushing for - the FTT, the bonus cap, etc - are generally popular with the British public. If put to a referendum, they'd probably pass here. There's something ironic about the British business community turning towards Euroscepticism over policies that most British people actually favour.

    That means, IMO, it's not a good idea for Osborne to make these policies the basis of a bust-up with the EU. There are plenty of better and more popular grounds on which to do that; but breaking up with Brussels in order to protect the banks would be terrible politics.
    They don't have to use them as the basis. They can decide they want to split because of the FTT but publically make it about sausages.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    AveryLP said:

    Napolitano re-elected as President of Italian Republic. Counting still underway, but he has already passed the 504 votes required-
    First time a President is re-elected for another term.

    How many terms do the Italians expect Napolitano to serve, Andrea?

    He was born before Margaret Thatcher!

    I am not sure. I have never heard talking about term limits. But no-one have served more than one term anyway. They are elected old and so it was not expected to see them doing another term.

    If Napolitano serves a full term (I doubt), he will be almost 95
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    She should have waited, the govt has upped the giveaway massively

    Mark Prisk has opened the door for London’s council tenants to take up their Right to Buy with an increased discount of up to £100,000.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mark-prisk-offers-100k-right-to-buy-discount-to-the-capital-s-social-tenants

    The PB Tories rail against people on good salaries in social housing then support measures that throws massive pots of money at them

    And don't forget Osborne's state subsidised mortgages will give out an even bigger bonus.

    And yet they go on about tattoo removal on the NHS and suchlike.

    Tories oppose the provision of breast implants on the NHS due to the risk of inflation.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    Opinium



    we do not weight results by party ID or past vote.

    Have to admit I don't follow opinion polls and the way they are interpreted ll that closely, but it still mus be good for UKIP to poll over double the LDs surely? #quitcallingmeshirley
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    To AveryLP:

    a comment apropos of a thread last night, when the PB p!ssup at DD's was underway:

    You are right. Ms. Mullova's Bach chaconne is superb. I think it blends technique, musicality, and control about as well as the human frame can manage. I could imagine the great man himself smiling to hear her play it. One can only try to imagine how he (visualised? auditised?) music, but she may be coming close to it.
    Note to self: watch it Toms, you're gushing.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667

    GeoffM said:

    tim said:

    Teacher purchased from council in 2006 for £141,000 and sold it for £298,000
    ... discounts at these levels.

    At what "levels"? The sale price of a council house was based on its then full market valuation and only included a discount to reflect rent paid and depending on how long tenants had been living in the house. Plus if they sold their house before a minimum period had expired they would have to pay back a proportion of the discount anyway.

    The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".


    In other words, the state subsidised the purchase of council owned properties.

    I believe that the correct lefty approved term is "redistribution of wealth", in this case from the state to a "key worker" to allow them to live in an expensive area.

    Much as the removal of the "spare room subsidy" encourages the redistribution of housing according to their needs.

    From each according to their means, and to each according to their needs.

    It seems that some socialists are not keeping up with policies that match their slogans.

    My problem with the spare room subsidy cut is that it penalises many hard working families and encourages feckless idlers to breed more children. Given the fact that we are told the welfare system has to change because there are so many of these people I find it incomprehensible that the government has created new incentives for them to carry on their dissolute behaviour.

    As for council house sales, I am all for redistribution. I am glad the right recognises it for what it is - a great enabler and only achievable on any meaningful scale by the state.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @AveryLP.

    Seems like there's a queue to give hapless George a good kicking today

    IMF steps up call for Osborne to abandon austerity plans as row escalates
    A row between George Osborne and the International Monetary Fund over Britain’s economic strategy has escalated after the fund’s deputy managing director joined those urging the Chancellor to abandon his austerity plans.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10007727/IMF-steps-up-call-for-Osborne-to-abandon-austerity-plans-as-row-escalates.html


    The Treasury select committee is deeply unimpressed by Osborne's Help To Buy scheme
    The plan to help first-time buyers is "very much a work in progress", say Andrew Tyrie and colleagues.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/treasury-select-committee-deeply-unimpressed-osbornes-help-buy-scheme


    The IMF and Andrew Tyrie's Treasury Select Committee, all lefties.

    First, tim, you have to provide evidence that the IMF has criticised the UK government's fiscal policies and performance.

    I have asked you and Ben twice to provide evidence of such criticism by direct quotation of Christine Lagarde's response to Ed Conway's question at the IMF press conference in Washington.

    Neither you nor Ben have so far responded to my request. As the whole narrative of criticism originates from Lagarde's response to Conway, I would have thought providing this evidence would be a simple task.

    Here is a link to a video clip of Lagarde's complete response to Conway:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1080069/lagarde-imf-may-urge-osborne-over-austerity

    She makes it clear that the IMF supports Osborne's fiscal consolidation plans (this is repeated twice); that the IMF position on the UK hasn't changed since its last published review of the UK economy; and, that it has always been the position of the IMF that the pace of consolidation should be reviewed in light of lower than expected growth outcomes.

    She does state that UK growth has "not been very good", but this applies to almost all countries under IMF observation and as the UK's growth is currently higher than all other EU large countries, Osborne's plans must be the least of her worries at present.

    Conway is attempting to create a "story" out of nothing in order to cover his error in attributing the previous day's ramblings of I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange to official IMF policy.

    Growth stimulus will be discussed with the Treasury during the IMF's upcoming review of the UK economy, but the discussions are far more likely to concentrate on the optimal level and scope of monetary stimulus by the Bank of England than any change in fiscal plans.

    Anyway, I wait for your direct quote from Lagarde to substantiate your claims. You should note I am an eternal optimist and fully expect your delivery.

    It is extraordinary how literally every news source reporting this story could have got it so wrong.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Y0kel said:

    Boston:

    Something about the investigation.

    How does someone who has:

    a) come on the US authorities radar regarding Islamic extremisim
    b) would have been noted as visiting Russia on a long trip
    c) lived within striking distance of the attacks
    d) had apparently become a lot more radicalised in recent times and communicated that radicalism

    Take near 4 days to come up as a suspect and one that they made public by passing out pictures and asking the public to help identify him?

    The family say that the elder brother was pestered by US authorities whilst the FBI say they questioned him once regarding links to Islamic extremism and found nothing. I suppose it depends who the US authorities in question were.

    There is possibly more depth to these guys. I find it doubtful the investigators didn't have them on the list early.

    I dunno. Couldn't the US have a policy blind spot on Chechens on the assumption they'd only be interested in Russian targets.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    How does any politician hope to reform the NHS for the better when we have half a town marching in opposition to changes to a hospital that killed hundreds of their family and friends? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260

    I pity poor old Jeremy Lefroy the local MP - a good man who will have to spout stuff he knows is nonsense.

    Why have we got such a blind spot in this country to the failings of the NHS?

    How often has Stafford been on the BBC 6 o' clock news?

    How often was Leveson on the BBC 6 o' clock news?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    Would @PBModerator confirm that the rules re commenting on certain other posters [direct or indirect] are still in place?

    I try hard to observe courtesy and respect the site host - I'd find guidance here very helpful. And hope that this is applied equally and to all concerned irrespective of all topics and political views if politely expressed.

    Thanx in Advance.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    timmo said:

    Could only get 50 on at 5/2 so will be going to betting shop to top up..
    Been speaking to Surrey cons today and they are very concerned that UKIP are going to clean up in certain ward areas. Add Kent into the mix where they are ashore in within many areas then I think the establishment are in for a big shock over the next month.
    Shapps also is a disaster...makes Warsi look competent.

    I'm sure this poll will be dismissed, but I don't think it is bad news for UKIP

    www.thisiskent.co.uk/story-18730064-detail/story.html#ixzz2QjSQwDPo


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,859
    Mr. Jones, that's very telling.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    MrJones said:

    Y0kel said:

    Boston:

    Something about the investigation.

    How does someone who has:

    a) come on the US authorities radar regarding Islamic extremisim
    b) would have been noted as visiting Russia on a long trip
    c) lived within striking distance of the attacks
    d) had apparently become a lot more radicalised in recent times and communicated that radicalism

    Take near 4 days to come up as a suspect and one that they made public by passing out pictures and asking the public to help identify him?

    The family say that the elder brother was pestered by US authorities whilst the FBI say they questioned him once regarding links to Islamic extremism and found nothing. I suppose it depends who the US authorities in question were.

    There is possibly more depth to these guys. I find it doubtful the investigators didn't have them on the list early.

    I dunno. Couldn't the US have a policy blind spot on Chechens on the assumption they'd only be interested in Russian targets.
    Definitely no. The Chechens are some of the most exported Jihadist fighters going. Theres well established links between international jihadism and Chechen involvement.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    It's all a huge conspiracy

    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan 18 Apr
    Osborne believes Obama Keynesians at IMF inc Olivier Blanchard are attacking Plan A as a proxy attack on US Republicans, according to #FT

    What I don't get is why Osborne would brief against the IMF when the IMF has not, in fact, criticised his policies. Even more bizarre, given the potentially negative effects all these false reports could have on market sentiment, why hasn't the IMF clarified its position and roundly condemned what must be considered a malicious attempt to destabilise the UK economy undertaken by literally every reporter covering this story.

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Toms said:

    To AveryLP:

    a comment apropos of a thread last night, when the PB p!ssup at DD's was underway:

    You are right. Ms. Mullova's Bach chaconne is superb. I think it blends technique, musicality, and control about as well as the human frame can manage. I could imagine the great man himself smiling to hear her play it. One can only try to imagine how he (visualised? auditised?) music, but she may be coming close to it.
    Note to self: watch it Toms, you're gushing.

    I called you brave, Toms, because PB taste in music is not universally tilted in favour of classical music. And solo violin is probably the most difficult place to start especially if it is Bach at his most sublime but complex.

    What I admire most about Mullova is that she makes the chaconne so accessible to the untutored listener. She is daunted neither by the structure nor the complexity not the length of the piece: it all appears so effortlessly coherent.

    And boy does she have competition on this one. I just hope that someone reading listened to the pieces for the first time and enjoyed them.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Y0kel said:



    Definitely no. The Chechens are some of the most exported Jihadist fighters going. Theres well established links between international jihadism and Chechen involvement.

    Ironic that imported terrorism has been visited on Boston given all that they've exported to us in the last 40 years.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    She should have waited, the govt has upped the giveaway massively

    Mark Prisk has opened the door for London’s council tenants to take up their Right to Buy with an increased discount of up to £100,000.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mark-prisk-offers-100k-right-to-buy-discount-to-the-capital-s-social-tenants

    The PB Tories rail against people on good salaries in social housing then support measures that throws massive pots of money at them

    And don't forget Osborne's state subsidised mortgages will give out an even bigger bonus.

    And yet they go on about tattoo removal on the NHS and suchlike.

    Tories oppose the provision of breast implants on the NHS due to the risk of inflation.

    I fear that joke fell flat.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mr @TSE - shame that I missed you re DDicks. Hope Seb is fine and dandy.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    How does any politician hope to reform the NHS for the better when we have half a town marching in opposition to changes to a hospital that killed hundreds of their family and friends? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260

    I pity poor old Jeremy Lefroy the local MP - a good man who will have to spout stuff he knows is nonsense.

    Why have we got such a blind spot in this country to the failings of the NHS?

    Did Stafford Hospital kill hundreds? It doesn't say that anywhere in the Francis report. The care at Stafford was bad enough without people repeating these fantasy figures about the number of excess deaths which can only be little more than guesses.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver.

    It's difficult to work out.
    Last year when Osborne was embroiled in the omnishambles he unmasked the huge Libor conspiracy involving several top politicians.
    And what happened?
    The press suppressed it all.

    I hope Avery can get to the bottom of all this

    I add Southam Observer to the list of those from whom I request evidence of IMF criticism of Osborne's poliicies.

    Sarcasm doesn't provide adequate camouflage.

    So tim. Ben and SO, please quote Lagarde to back up your position.

    Your silence is deafening.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver.

    It's difficult to work out.
    Last year when Osborne was embroiled in the omnishambles he unmasked the huge Libor conspiracy involving several top politicians.
    And what happened?
    The press suppressed it all.

    I hope Avery can get to the bottom of all this

    Indeed. When every single media outlet is clearly involved in a conspiracy to destabilise the British economy - and the IMF refuses to call them out on it - we need Avery, Guido and other impartial, disinterested, spin-free seekers of justice to keep the flame of truth alive. One day Ed Balls will be imprisoned for his vile manipulation of the LIBOR rates, you mark my words.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    GeoffM said:

    tim said:

    Teacher purchased from council in 2006 for £141,000 and sold it for £298,000
    ... discounts at these levels.

    At what "levels"? The sale price of a council house was based on its then full market valuation and only included a discount to reflect rent paid and depending on how long tenants had been living in the house. Plus if they sold their house before a minimum period had expired they would have to pay back a proportion of the discount anyway.

    The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".


    In other words, the state subsidised the purchase of council owned properties.

    I believe that the correct lefty approved term is "redistribution of wealth", in this case from the state to a "key worker" to allow them to live in an expensive area.

    Much as the removal of the "spare room subsidy" encourages the redistribution of housing according to their needs.

    From each according to their means, and to each according to their needs.

    It seems that some socialists are not keeping up with policies that match their slogans.

    My problem with the spare room subsidy cut is that it penalises many hard working families and encourages feckless idlers to breed more children. Given the fact that we are told the welfare system has to change because there are so many of these people I find it incomprehensible that the government has created new incentives for them to carry on their dissolute behaviour.

    As for council house sales, I am all for redistribution. I am glad the right recognises it for what it is - a great enabler and only achievable on any meaningful scale by the state.

    SO, I know you have strong views on the welfare state, so perhaps you can help me with this. Setting aside all the complexities of taking away things that people already enjoy, surely it is right that the state should provide what people *need*. It's a fact of life that there is only limited amount of money - personally I'd like to see that help as many people as possible.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver.

    It's difficult to work out.
    Last year when Osborne was embroiled in the omnishambles he unmasked the huge Libor conspiracy involving several top politicians.
    And what happened?
    The press suppressed it all.

    I hope Avery can get to the bottom of all this

    I add Southam Observer to the list of those from whom I request evidence of IMF criticism of Osborne's poliicies.

    Sarcasm doesn't provide adequate camouflage.

    So tim. Ben and SO, please quote Lagarde to back up your position.

    Your silence is deafening.

    Lagarde is not the only person of note or import at the IMF. You may want to check out the views of the organisation's chief economist. Or then again, you might not! Ms Lagarde is a charming woman who I have had the great pleasure of meeting. As you probably know, she is a lawyer by trade.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @AveryLP.

    Seems like there's a queue to give hapless George a good kicking today

    IMF steps up call for Osborne to abandon austerity plans as row escalates
    A row between George Osborne and the International Monetary Fund over Britain’s economic strategy has escalated after the fund’s deputy managing director joined those urging the Chancellor to abandon his austerity plans.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10007727/IMF-steps-up-call-for-Osborne-to-abandon-austerity-plans-as-row-escalates.html


    The Treasury select committee is deeply unimpressed by Osborne's Help To Buy scheme
    The plan to help first-time buyers is "very much a work in progress", say Andrew Tyrie and colleagues.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/treasury-select-committee-deeply-unimpressed-osbornes-help-buy-scheme


    The IMF and Andrew Tyrie's Treasury Select Committee, all lefties.

    First, tim, you have to provide evidence that the IMF has criticised the UK government's fiscal policies and performance.

    I have asked you and Ben twice to provide evidence of such criticism by direct quotation of Christine Lagarde's response to Ed Conway's question at the IMF press conference in Washington.

    Neither you nor Ben have so far responded to my request. As the whole narrative of criticism originates from Lagarde's response to Conway, I would have thought providing this evidence would be a simple task.

    Here is a link to a video clip of Lagarde's complete response to Conway:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1080069/lagarde-imf-may-urge-osborne-over-austerity

    She makes it clear that the IMF supports Osborne's fiscal consolidation plans (this is repeated twice); that the IMF position on the UK hasn't changed since its last published review of the UK economy; and, that it has always been the position of the IMF that the pace of consolidation should be reviewed in light of lower than expected growth outcomes.

    She does state that UK growth has "not been very good", but this applies to almost all countries under IMF observation and as the UK's growth is currently higher than all other EU large countries, Osborne's plans must be the least of her worries at present.

    Conway is attempting to create a "story" out of nothing in order to cover his error in attributing the previous day's ramblings of I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange to official IMF policy.

    Growth stimulus will be discussed with the Treasury during the IMF's upcoming review of the UK economy, but the discussions are far more likely to concentrate on the optimal level and scope of monetary stimulus by the Bank of England than any change in fiscal plans.

    Anyway, I wait for your direct quote from Lagarde to substantiate your claims. You should note I am an eternal optimist and fully expect your delivery.

    It is extraordinary how literally every news source reporting this story could have got it so wrong.

    It is not extraordinary at all, SO.

    It is par for the course.

    I deliberately use this golfing metaphor in the hope that it will encourage PB's newly successful golfing tipster to hole the ball on his fourth shot.

    The first three attempts appear to have been air shots.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    o/t - Sorry to hear JohnO ended up in Bournemouth last night, I'd like to say it had nothing to do with me but perhaps I was wrong to insist on that last drink. Hopefully JohnO will be back with a report on Bournemouth's lap-dancing clubs and how they compare to Wigan's later.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Charles said:

    GeoffM said:

    tim said:

    Teacher purchased from council in 2006 for £141,000 and sold it for £298,000
    ... discounts at these levels.

    At what "levels"? The sale price of a council house was based on its then full market valuation and only included a discount to reflect rent paid and depending on how long tenants had been living in the house. Plus if they sold their house before a minimum period had expired they would have to pay back a proportion of the discount anyway.

    The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".


    In other words, the state subsidised the purchase of council owned properties.

    I believe that the correct lefty approved term is "redistribution of wealth", in this case from the state to a "key worker" to allow them to live in an expensive area.

    Much as the removal of the "spare room subsidy" encourages the redistribution of housing according to their needs.

    From each according to their means, and to each according to their needs.

    It seems that some socialists are not keeping up with policies that match their slogans.

    My problem with the spare room subsidy cut is that it penalises many hard working families and encourages feckless idlers to breed more children. Given the fact that we are told the welfare system has to change because there are so many of these people I find it incomprehensible that the government has created new incentives for them to carry on their dissolute behaviour.

    As for council house sales, I am all for redistribution. I am glad the right recognises it for what it is - a great enabler and only achievable on any meaningful scale by the state.

    SO, I know you have strong views on the welfare state, so perhaps you can help me with this. Setting aside all the complexities of taking away things that people already enjoy, surely it is right that the state should provide what people *need*. It's a fact of life that there is only limited amount of money - personally I'd like to see that help as many people as possible.

    I agree. The problem with this policy is that the net effect is likely to push up overall costs, while encouraging the Mick Philpotts out there to carry on having kids.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Y0kel said:

    MrJones said:

    Y0kel said:

    Boston:

    Something about the investigation.

    How does someone who has:

    a) come on the US authorities radar regarding Islamic extremisim
    b) would have been noted as visiting Russia on a long trip
    c) lived within striking distance of the attacks
    d) had apparently become a lot more radicalised in recent times and communicated that radicalism

    Take near 4 days to come up as a suspect and one that they made public by passing out pictures and asking the public to help identify him?

    The family say that the elder brother was pestered by US authorities whilst the FBI say they questioned him once regarding links to Islamic extremism and found nothing. I suppose it depends who the US authorities in question were.

    There is possibly more depth to these guys. I find it doubtful the investigators didn't have them on the list early.

    I dunno. Couldn't the US have a policy blind spot on Chechens on the assumption they'd only be interested in Russian targets.
    Definitely no. The Chechens are some of the most exported Jihadist fighters going. Theres well established links between international jihadism and Chechen involvement.
    As fighters going into pre-existing warzones yes.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    One can only imagine how confused the good people of Bournemouth were when they woke up to find the latest edition of 'In Touch Hersham' delivered through their letterboxes.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver.

    It's difficult to work out.
    Last year when Osborne was embroiled in the omnishambles he unmasked the huge Libor conspiracy involving several top politicians.
    And what happened?
    The press suppressed it all.

    I hope Avery can get to the bottom of all this

    I add Southam Observer to the list of those from whom I request evidence of IMF criticism of Osborne's poliicies.

    Sarcasm doesn't provide adequate camouflage.

    So tim. Ben and SO, please quote Lagarde to back up your position.

    Your silence is deafening.

    Lagarde is not the only person of note or import at the IMF. You may want to check out the views of the organisation's chief economist. Or then again, you might not! Ms Lagarde is a charming woman who I have had the great pleasure of meeting. As you probably know, she is a lawyer by trade.

    But Lagarde, as Managing Director of the IMF, is authorised by the IMF's constitution to represent the organisation in public.

    As a lawyer she will know that and will also know that the same does not apply to the Chief Economist who is not a member of the IMF's Executive Board.

    I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange's views may be interesting but they are not representative.

    Can I assume from your reply that you now concede Lagarde did not criticise the UK's fiscal policy?

  • Neil said:

    o/t - Sorry to hear JohnO ended up in Bournemouth last night, I'd like to say it had nothing to do with me but perhaps I was wrong to insist on that last drink. Hopefully JohnO will be back with a report on Bournemouth's lap-dancing clubs and how they compare to Wigan's later.

    You're a terrible terrible influence.

    Had the bar staff not asked us to go down stairs, we'd have never left.

    As punishment, I'm emailing you a picture of my shoes.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    @Very naughty Irish person

    Mock ye not the afflicted.
  • JohnO said:

    @Very naughty Irish person

    Mock ye not the afflicted.

    I feel your pain, I'm knackered, I'm contemplating going to bed at 8pm on a Saturday night.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver.

    It's difficult to work out.
    Last year when Osborne was embroiled in the omnishambles he unmasked the huge Libor conspiracy involving several top politicians.
    And what happened?
    The press suppressed it all.

    I hope Avery can get to the bottom of all this

    I add Southam Observer to the list of those from whom I request evidence of IMF criticism of Osborne's poliicies.

    Sarcasm doesn't provide adequate camouflage.

    So tim. Ben and SO, please quote Lagarde to back up your position.

    Your silence is deafening.

    Lagarde is not the only person of note or import at the IMF. You may want to check out the views of the organisation's chief economist. Or then again, you might not! Ms Lagarde is a charming woman who I have had the great pleasure of meeting. As you probably know, she is a lawyer by trade.

    But Lagarde, as Managing Director of the IMF, is authorised by the IMF's constitution to represent the organisation in public.

    As a lawyer she will know that and will also know that the same does not apply to the Chief Economist who is not a member of the IMF's Executive Board.

    I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange's views may be interesting but they are not representative.

    Can I assume from your reply that you now concede Lagarde did not criticise the UK's fiscal policy?

    I never claimed otherwise; neither did anyone else. But what Lagarde did not do was rebuke the chief economist or repudiate his words. She spoke very diplomatically, as you would expect. If you wish to pretend that what the IMF's chief economist said does not matter and that nothing has changed then that is your prerogative.

  • Chris_A said:


    Did Stafford Hospital kill hundreds? It doesn't say that anywhere in the Francis report. The care at Stafford was bad enough without people repeating these fantasy figures about the number of excess deaths which can only be little more than guesses.

    Tell that to the mourning relatives, Chris_A.

  • @JohnO and @Neil

    I was at Camden Market this morning, and following on from our discussion last night, I saw this T shirt on sale, and I thought you two would appreciate it.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/failed-Turing-Test-T-Shirt-CafePress/dp/B007YTU92E/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1366480327&sr=8-5&keywords=turing+test
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,976
    JohnO said:

    @Very naughty Irish person

    Mock ye not the afflicted.

    I hope you didn't get a penalty fare! Hersham's a long way from Bournemouth!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MrJones said:

    Y0kel said:

    MrJones said:

    Y0kel said:

    Boston:

    Something about the investigation.

    How does someone who has:

    a) come on the US authorities radar regarding Islamic extremisim
    b) would have been noted as visiting Russia on a long trip
    c) lived within striking distance of the attacks
    d) had apparently become a lot more radicalised in recent times and communicated that radicalism

    Take near 4 days to come up as a suspect and one that they made public by passing out pictures and asking the public to help identify him?

    The family say that the elder brother was pestered by US authorities whilst the FBI say they questioned him once regarding links to Islamic extremism and found nothing. I suppose it depends who the US authorities in question were.

    There is possibly more depth to these guys. I find it doubtful the investigators didn't have them on the list early.

    I dunno. Couldn't the US have a policy blind spot on Chechens on the assumption they'd only be interested in Russian targets.
    Definitely no. The Chechens are some of the most exported Jihadist fighters going. Theres well established links between international jihadism and Chechen involvement.
    As fighters going into pre-existing warzones yes.
    Was Beslan a warzone then?

    Or just the worst terrorist atrocity of the last decade?

    I have limited sympathy for the Chechen fighters cause since then, and cannot see how blowing up an eight year old child and maiming hundreds at a sporting event in Boston furthers their cause.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    Mr Jones 5.59pm. As does the BBC and fellow travellers. Of course you can ask the families of the telecom engineers killed by Islamists in Chechnya in 1999 but no one cares. Emphasise Chechen, not the religion of peace...

    How upset they must have been when it turned out the authors were not Mormons.

    Slightly O/T and no doubt in poor taste wonder how Bostonians feel about Noraid and how it is "different"?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,082
    UKIP's support seems to be fairly evenly spread out, which is hampering it at the moment. However, if it really is a party on the rise, with a wide-ranging popular appeal akin to Mr Blair's New Labour, then it could easily go from no seats to quite a lot of seats in a single GE.

    In 1997, a lot of New Labour MPs never expected to be elected, AIUI. The same could happen to UKIP candidates.
This discussion has been closed.