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A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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@Plato Someone mentioned Southland the other day...
I enjoyed Southland. The 'nugget' style of filming makes it an interesting change in genre format. Gritty, yes, but not unpleasantly so. It was almost cancelled a while ago and was rescued with a massively slashed cast and budget. That actually made it better imho.
RT @Know: Price of 1 gig of storage over time:
1981 $300,000
1987 $50,000
1990 $10,000
1994 $1,000
1997 $100
2000 $10
2004 $1
2012 $0.10
Rogue has potential but they really need to turn down the over-acting - I'm exhausted just watching the characters trying to out tough each other by endlessly rolling their shoulders/legs akimbo/saying EFF EFF EFF loudly.
Red Widow is another one has possibilities but its disappeared and suspect its been cancelled too hastily.
WARNING - this joke is not suitable for Scottish Nationalists. Do not click on this link and then complain about it :^ )
RT @MackieJonathan: This joke will never cease being funny. #scotlab13 http://twitpic.com/cknw6y < EPIC
Unspoofable.
EPIC > LOL
;^)
Shadsy also seems to be pointing to a figure of 50(ish) though no doubt there will be a great deal of expectations management spin from the tories and the lib dems between now and May.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dER0ZjZZR1VzMHgzTUR2OFFtWTBsOXc#gid=0
Gloucester is a crucial Labour target, at number 39 with 68 gains required for a majority:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
That means, IMO, it's not a good idea for Osborne to make these policies the basis of a bust-up with the EU. There are plenty of better and more popular grounds on which to do that; but breaking up with Brussels in order to protect the banks would be terrible politics.
It's just stellar stuff that eclipses even Ed 'First Class Travel Millionaire Will Changer To Avoid Tax' Milliband.
I'm sticking to watching DVDs about fictional characters - they appear to have more scruples.
The updated Mail article. With added wincing. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311559/Thatcher-death-party-organiser-150-000-council-home-bought-PM-s-right-buy-scheme.html
The Tories are definitely worried though. I've seen hugely Tory heavy majority areas all but beg people not to vote UKIP on leaflets, as most UKIP policies are more national to take one example. Then UKIP bubble could burst so easily, but for the moment the, well, momentum is pretty intense.
Been speaking to Surrey cons today and they are very concerned that UKIP are going to clean up in certain ward areas. Add Kent into the mix where they are ashore in within many areas then I think the establishment are in for a big shock over the next month.
Shapps also is a disaster...makes Warsi look competent.
Terrible politics is what Osborne does best.
Leaving that aside, most of the city, and more pertinently, most of the tories city funders want to stay in the EU regardless of bankers bonuses etc.
That's why Cameron left the massive loophole in his cast iron IN/OUT referendum pledge.
If it ever came to a referendum he would campaign to stay in and it would tear the tories apart. Not that it will ever get to a referendum. Lisbon proved that.
In fact he's a few months older than Margaret Thatcher.
I can only offer my perspective from canvassing and assisting in one county division in Lancashire. It's a Conservative division and previously well canvassed, but sitting county councillor standing down and on paer should remain Conservative with a narrow majority (Labour have more than one district councillor in the division)
Having canvassed on three occasions, the Conservative pledge numbers are holding up because the new candidate has worked hard and has converted probables into definites and topped up with new pledges from previous uncanvassed. This has cancelled out the loss of Conservatives to UKIP which is certainly taking place. We are only canvassing definites, proabbles and uncanvassed but the candidate says that Labour voters are also tempted by UKIP. I know one former Labour councillor not far from me signed the UKIP candidates nomination papers.
In areas where the Conservative candidate has not worked so hard then I could see 25% of the previous 2009 Conservative vote stay at home or move to UKIP.
How on earth women can get boob jobs on the NHS because of lack of self esteem is beyond a joke. Imagine a bloke tried a similar thing due to his lack of size making him feel bad!
I dont know if UKIP would support this kind of nonsense, but the fact that it actually happens under the government we have and the one we had, is just one of the many reasons why I would never vote for any of the big three
What I find most peculiar is that this lady who proudly stands holding a giant Hammer&Sickle flag is suffering from Small Breast Syndrome [I made this up but assume someone with shares in an implant factory has tried to make it a psychiatric condition].
Aren't women meant to be equal to men? The Soviets for all their ills did a lot for female scientists etc under their version Wimmins Lib.
Given Lefties like Romany rail against Page Three et al and *objectifying* the female form - why is she giving a moment's thought to her cup size? Or bizarrely assessing her *esteem* by this? She's not even smart enough to use her sexuality a la Katie Price who shamelessly played an angle to win and outsmarted a lot of men's wallets in the process.
It's quite the most bizarre thing I've come across re political news in ages.
Doing well at Newbury and Thirsk today so I am nicely up on the day regardless. Hope you did better elsewhere if you were punting more widely as well.
"How on earth women can get boob jobs on the NHS because of lack of self esteem is beyond a joke. Imagine a bloke tried a similar thing due to his lack of size making him feel bad!"
And don't forget that homeopathy is available too on the NHS. Now that's a right royal joke.
If it works for them - I won't knock it for things that aren't imminently life threatening. If anyone tried to suggest it for something that was - I'd crack their heads together.
@Plato:
"I wonder if the reason the PEB feels so authentic is because Kippers haven't yet fallen into the trap of being lead by PR gurus and hence over-packaged. They'll get there eventually - but its good to see them moving on from amateurish. That logo has go - it is so wrong on so many levels..."
The Logo is going to change and be redesigned. It will happen after May 2nd, of course, but I don't know exactly when. Actually the sooner the better, as it will take some time for the new logo to catch on. However changing a logo and perhaps name is tricky. When the Tories changed their emblem from a union jack based design to a pathetic turquoise tree (nearly green in fact), those with political nous knew what that change portended.
Just come back from a relaxing walk over Barns common. The trees are now beginning to give forth leaf. Spring at last?
TBH, I thought the Tories made a mistake shifting from the Union Jack Torch - it was a great logo that said a great many things all at the same time.
In terms of branding = a Does What It Says On The Tin image
- Union
- Patriotic
- Strong
- Pushing Forward
- Not Scared, Just Clear
- A light leading the way
- a hint of Justice about it
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38851000/jpg/_38851411_logo203.jpg
Sorry I couldn't make it to Dirty Dicks.
IMO, they'll win c.50 county council divisions, (currently they have 10).
I think it's hard to predict where they'll do best, and where they'll hurt the Conservatives most, because the Lib Dem vote will be well down on 2009 (a good year for the party) as well as the Conservative vote. And, in most county councils, the Lib Dems are the main challengers to the Conservatives.
Overall, I'd predict something like Labour winning Durham, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire.
Conservatives winning Herts., Essex, Lincs., Leicestershire, North Yorishire, Surrey, Kent, West Sussex, Kent, Hampshire, Wiltshire, Dorset, Norfolk, Oxfordshire. The Conservatives should hold Cambridgeshire, but UKIP could break through in Fenland, and Huntingdonshire, taking it to NOC.
Lib Dem possibly winning Somerset,
NOC Cornwall, East Sussex, Suffolk, Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Devon, Shropshire.
"This week, economists have been astonished to find that a famous academic paper often used to make the case for austerity cuts contains major errors. Another surprise is that the mistakes, by two eminent Harvard professors, were spotted by a student doing his homework.
It's 4 January 2010, the Marriott Hotel in Atlanta. At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Professor Carmen Reinhart and the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ken Rogoff, are presenting a research paper called Growth in a Time of Debt.
At a time of economic crisis, their finding resonates - economic growth slows dramatically when the size of a country's debt rises above 90% of Gross Domestic Product, the overall size of the economy.
Word about this paper spread. Policymakers wanted to know more. And so did student Thomas Herndon. His professors at the University of Massachusetts Amherst had set his graduate class an assignment - pick an economics paper and see if you can replicate the results. It's a good exercise for aspiring researchers.
Thomas chose Growth in a Time of Debt. It was getting a lot of attention, but intuitively, he says, he was dubious about its findings. Some key figures tackling the global recession found this paper a useful addition to the debate at the heart of which is this key question: is it best to let debt increase in the hope of stimulating economic growth to get out of the slump, or is it better to cut spending and raise taxes aggressively to get public debt under control?
EU commissioner Olli Rehn and influential US Republican politician Paul Ryan have both quoted a 90% debt-to-GDP limit to support their austerity strategies..."
The house has simply appreciated in value. There's no problem with the transaction - it's just the typical lefty hypocrisy of "do as I say not as I do".
Spring at last? God I hope so!
RT @GuidoFawkes: Great poster idea for those opposed to #BedroomTax Via @Steviehawkin http://twitter.com/Steviehawkin/status/321958098610823168/photo/1
Seems to me you have some kind of official or senior volunteer role. Would you mind letting us know? It's always good to be able to understand where people are coming from, even if they are not speaking in an official capacity.
That said, if you'd rather not then feel free to tell me to p*** off.
Something about the investigation.
How does someone who has:
a) come on the US authorities radar regarding Islamic extremisim
b) would have been noted as visiting Russia on a long trip
c) lived within striking distance of the attacks
d) had apparently become a lot more radicalised in recent times and communicated that radicalism
Take near 4 days to come up as a suspect and one that they made public by passing out pictures and asking the public to help identify him?
The family say that the elder brother was pestered by US authorities whilst the FBI say they questioned him once regarding links to Islamic extremism and found nothing. I suppose it depends who the US authorities in question were.
There is possibly more depth to these guys. I find it doubtful the investigators didn't have them on the list early.
I pity poor old Jeremy Lefroy the local MP - a good man who will have to spout stuff he knows is nonsense.
Why have we got such a blind spot in this country to the failings of the NHS?
On a cursory look, it seems that that Herndon Ash and Pollen also find lower growth when debt is over 90% (they find 0-30 debt/GDP , 4.2% growth; 30-60, 3.1 %; 60-90, 3.2%,; 90-120, 2.4% and over 120, 1.6%). These results are, in fact, of a similar order of magnitude to the detailed country by country results we present in table 1 of the AER paper, and to the median results in Figure 2. And they are similar to estimates in much of the large and growing literature, including our own attached August 2012 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper (joint with Vincent Reinhart) . However, these strong similarities are not what these authors choose to emphasize.
The 2012 JEP paper largely anticipates and addresses any concerns about aggregation (the main bone of contention here), The JEP paper not only provides individual country averages (as we already featured in Table 1 of the 2010 AER paper) but it goes further and provide episode by episode averages. Not surprisingly, the results are broadly similar to our original 2010 AER table 1 averages and to the median results that also figure prominently.. It is hard to see how one can interpret these tables and individual country results as showing that public debt overhang over 90% is clearly benign.
The JEP paper with Vincent Reinhart looks at all public debt overhang episodes for advanced countries in our database, dating back to 1800. The overall average result shows that public debt overhang episodes (over 90% GDP for five years or more) are associated with 1.2% lower growth as compared to growth when debt is under 90%. (We also include in our tables the small number of shorter episodes.) Note that because the historical public debt overhang episodes last an average of over 20 years, the cumulative effects of small growth differences are potentially quite large. It is utterly misleading to speak of a 1% growth differential that lasts 10-25 years as small.
By the way, we are very careful in all our papers to speak of “association” and not “causality” since of course our 2009 book THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT showed that debt explodes in the immediate aftermath of financial crises. This is why we restrict attention to longer debt overhang periods in the JEP paper, though as noted there are only a very limited number of short ones. Moreover, we have generally emphasized the 1% differential median result in all our discussions and subsequent writing, precisely to be understated and cautious, and also in recognition of the results in our core Table 1 (AER paper).
Lastly, our 2012 JEP paper cites papers from the BIS, IMF and OECD (among others) which virtually all find very similar conclusions to original findings, albeit with slight differences in threshold, and many nuances of alternative interpretation.. These later papers, by the way, use a variety of methodologies for dealing with non-linearity and also for trying to determine causation. Of course much further research is needed as the data we developed and is being used in these studies is new. Nevertheless, the weight of the evidence to date –including this latest comment — seems entirely consistent with our original interpretation of the data in our 2010 AER paper.
It all rather appears to be a storm in a leftie tea mug. It got tim excited though.
It's a bit annoying when a comment is removed from a site but you can still see all of the replies. An example is this article on the Guardian website - the first comment was removed but it still has loads of replies:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/20/boston-suspect-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-captured-alive#start-of-comments
They deserve a little credit for that. Too many scientists hide and purposely obfuscate their data for a number of reasons.
Talking of which, a scientists got jailed earlier this week for falsifying data on a pre-clincal drugs trial. What an asshat.
http://www.pharmatimes.com/Article/13-04-19/UK_pharma_scientist_jailed_over_trial_fraud.aspx
First time a President is re-elected for another term.
Much as the removal of the "spare room subsidy" encourages the redistribution of housing according to their needs.
From each according to their means, and to each according to their needs.
It seems that some socialists are not keeping up with policies that match their slogans.
Betting PostBacked Alonso for the win at 2.62, hedged at 1.25:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/bahrain-pre-race.html
"MikeK you seem very well informed on UKIP -recall you posting membership numbers.
Seems to me you have some kind of official or senior volunteer role. Would you mind letting us know? It's always good to be able to understand where people are coming from, even if they are not speaking in an official capacity.
That said, if you'd rather not then feel free to tell me to p*** off."
---------------
No feel free to ask anything you like. The truth is that I have no official or even senior volunteer role in UKIP. However, I do strongly support them and have access to UKIPs various web sites and correspond regularly with UKIP members and supporters. I also criticise them in a supportive way if I feel that they are not doing what I consider their best.
Unfortunately there are no council elections where I live to give physical help, that will have to wait until next year unless there is a local by-election before then. In another year, if I live that long, I will enter my ninth decade. But I can still be enthused by something new and indeed the rise of UKIP is keeping me young.
I have asked you and Ben twice to provide evidence of such criticism by direct quotation of Christine Lagarde's response to Ed Conway's question at the IMF press conference in Washington.
Neither you nor Ben have so far responded to my request. As the whole narrative of criticism originates from Lagarde's response to Conway, I would have thought providing this evidence would be a simple task.
Here is a link to a video clip of Lagarde's complete response to Conway:
http://news.sky.com/story/1080069/lagarde-imf-may-urge-osborne-over-austerity
She makes it clear that the IMF supports Osborne's fiscal consolidation plans (this is repeated twice); that the IMF position on the UK hasn't changed since its last published review of the UK economy; and, that it has always been the position of the IMF that the pace of consolidation should be reviewed in the event of lower than expected growth outcomes.
She does state that UK growth has "not been very good", but this applies to almost all countries under IMF observation and as the UK's growth is currently higher than all other EU large countries, Osborne's plans must be the least of her worries at present.
Conway is attempting to create a "story" out of nothing in order to cover his error in attributing the previous day's ramblings of I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange to official IMF policy.
Growth stimulus will be discussed with the Treasury during the IMF's upcoming review of the UK economy, but the discussions are far more likely to concentrate on the optimal level and scope of monetary stimulus by the Bank of England than any change in fiscal plans.
Anyway, I wait for your direct quote from Lagarde to substantiate your claims. You should note I am an eternal optimist and fully expect your delivery.
https://twitter.com/alexandralswann/status/325626604548145152
And an opinium poll
UKIP (@UKIP)
20/04/2013 17:34
Latest Opinium poll for the Observer has UKIP on 17%. LibDems on 8%. #NewThirdParty
997 the total number of voters
He was born before Margaret Thatcher!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100211974/anti-racism-an-industry-in-decline/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
If Napolitano serves a full term (I doubt), he will be almost 95
a comment apropos of a thread last night, when the PB p!ssup at DD's was underway:
You are right. Ms. Mullova's Bach chaconne is superb. I think it blends technique, musicality, and control about as well as the human frame can manage. I could imagine the great man himself smiling to hear her play it. One can only try to imagine how he (visualised? auditised?) music, but she may be coming close to it.
Note to self: watch it Toms, you're gushing.
As for council house sales, I am all for redistribution. I am glad the right recognises it for what it is - a great enabler and only achievable on any meaningful scale by the state.
How often was Leveson on the BBC 6 o' clock news?
I try hard to observe courtesy and respect the site host - I'd find guidance here very helpful. And hope that this is applied equally and to all concerned irrespective of all topics and political views if politely expressed.
Thanx in Advance.
www.thisiskent.co.uk/story-18730064-detail/story.html#ixzz2QjSQwDPo
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260
What I admire most about Mullova is that she makes the chaconne so accessible to the untutored listener. She is daunted neither by the structure nor the complexity not the length of the piece: it all appears so effortlessly coherent.
And boy does she have competition on this one. I just hope that someone reading listened to the pieces for the first time and enjoyed them.
Sarcasm doesn't provide adequate camouflage.
So tim. Ben and SO, please quote Lagarde to back up your position.
Your silence is deafening.
It is par for the course.
I deliberately use this golfing metaphor in the hope that it will encourage PB's newly successful golfing tipster to hole the ball on his fourth shot.
The first three attempts appear to have been air shots.
http://www.timeout.com/london/things-to-do/soho-then-and-now-in-pictures?intcid=leader
One can only imagine how confused the good people of Bournemouth were when they woke up to find the latest edition of 'In Touch Hersham' delivered through their letterboxes.
As a lawyer she will know that and will also know that the same does not apply to the Chief Economist who is not a member of the IMF's Executive Board.
I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange's views may be interesting but they are not representative.
Can I assume from your reply that you now concede Lagarde did not criticise the UK's fiscal policy?
Had the bar staff not asked us to go down stairs, we'd have never left.
As punishment, I'm emailing you a picture of my shoes.
Mock ye not the afflicted.
I was at Camden Market this morning, and following on from our discussion last night, I saw this T shirt on sale, and I thought you two would appreciate it.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/failed-Turing-Test-T-Shirt-CafePress/dp/B007YTU92E/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1366480327&sr=8-5&keywords=turing+test
Or just the worst terrorist atrocity of the last decade?
I have limited sympathy for the Chechen fighters cause since then, and cannot see how blowing up an eight year old child and maiming hundreds at a sporting event in Boston furthers their cause.
How upset they must have been when it turned out the authors were not Mormons.
Slightly O/T and no doubt in poor taste wonder how Bostonians feel about Noraid and how it is "different"?
In 1997, a lot of New Labour MPs never expected to be elected, AIUI. The same could happen to UKIP candidates.