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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Saving lives and protecting the NHS

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, Britain has succeeded in making sure its horrific death toll was achieved in an orderly fashion.

    At the start of this, I'm sure I read you say something like this disease will touch all of us in some way. Apologies if I've got that wrong, but what's changed your mind?
    It will and nothing has changed my mind. There will be no shortage of retrofitting of rationalisations afterwards, just as there was with the Second World War. Many, indeed most, things will stay the same even as we claim to have changed.
    I see, you meant changes to life rather than it being inevitable that we'd all know someone who died from the virus?
    There will be changes to life. And I’m afraid I do still expect that most of us will know someone who died of the disease.
    But presumably you think that's partly as a result of the government handling of all this? For what it's worth I think the handling has been poor. What really scares me is that if this was a disease that was killing 20% of those infected, the response might not have been much different.
    This disease is difficult to combat and the government should be allowed a lot of leeway for that. Even allowing for that, the amateurishness, the decision-making by assessments of popularity rather than need and the regular resort to game-playing in the midst of a pandemic is dismal.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    Nobody knows except Trump has been my understanding so far.

    Happy to be corrected, but it seems he has just made something up hoping his base of conspiracy whackos will go along with it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    I have a bad feeling about these polls from the U.S.

    It looks to me like Trump may be re-elected.

    I travel in hope, but I am fully prepared for Trump to be re-elected. Although whether I will cope psychologically when it happens is another matter.

    This election is going to be utterly brutal and bat shit crazy.

    Just hope Biden is listening to Bill Clinton and not his wife when it comes to reaching out to the rural whites he needs to turn around.
    All I'll say is just because you don't want something to happen doesn't mean it will. @Quincel went through this in his threader. Biden should be favourite right now.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    geoffw said:

    Powerful header by Cyclefree. The rationing of health care discussed under "Staying at home when ill" is in retrospect (already!) something to be concerned about as it is a likely factor in our poor performance in comparison with Germany. The overriding policy objective was to protect the NHS which was done by making it less accessible to ill people! Our centralised health system doesn't score well against Germany's decentralised one.

    “The overriding policy objective was to protect the NHS which was done by making it less accessible to ill people!“

    Indeed. When policy is to protect an institution at the expense of those it is meant to serve, something is very wrong in our approach.

    Reverence is a very poor basis for decision-making. Treating the NHS as a sacred cow to be worshipped is daft.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, Britain has succeeded in making sure its horrific death toll was achieved in an orderly fashion.

    At the start of this, I'm sure I read you say something like this disease will touch all of us in some way. Apologies if I've got that wrong, but what's changed your mind?
    nothing has changed my mind.
    Your greatest fault
    Casually wafting aside thousands of avoidable deaths certainly doesn’t change my mind, except to regard you with complete contempt.

    For the record, folks, Mr Meeks thinks that because I agree with Boris and many scientists that we now have to incorporate 'some' risk when we get back into the world, that as a result it's inevitable some people will die, that this is somehow 'casual.' It isn't. I have buried many people close to me so I know death viscerally in a way that Mr Meeks did before he became an extinct and now fossilised ostrich with a head rammed an awful long way down in the sand.

    This virus is pernicious. But I'm afraid it's here. We cannot remain in lockdown in perpetuity. The nation's mental, emotional, physical, domestic and economic wellbeing requires that lockdown now eases. We have to take some of that risk and be as sensible - 'alert' - as we can be whilst getting out. Back on the horse, as it were. Nanny State cannot forever shield us from this. This is the reality.

    But I'm afraid reality is a detached and distant concept to a hardened old socialist like Meeks. He lived and died in a world which no longer exists.
    Well at least you’ve dropped the ridiculous pretence that you’re a socialist now. Though the idea that I am one is something that would come as a major surprise to most left of centre posters, and indeed me.

    But you still waft away the large number of avoidable deaths caused by Boris Johnson’s negligence, a negligence that you acknowledged yesterday but regard as a triviality. That is utterly contemptible.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    coach said:

    Jonathan said:

    coach said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I should have also mentioned that care home workers are dying at twice the rate of NHS workers. It is a scandal. Some of the people doing the most valuable work, poorly paid and little valued are being denied the PPE they need and are dying because of this. They are also a vector for retransmission into the wider community.

    The whole purpose of lockdown was to protect the vulnerable. If we can’t even do that, really what is the point of it all?

    If anything positive comes out of this it may be that people think twice about sending Mum off to a care home where greedy owners and (some) negligent staff are paid to see her through her dying days
    What on Earth are you talking about?
    I'm talking about more elderly people being cared for at home rather than being abandoned
    Do you speak from personal experience?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,781
    edited May 2020
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    That is a very good article, Cyclefree.
    I was contemplating writing something along the same lines myself, but my head has not been in the right place for setting out anything coherent enough to form a header.

    Why are social care and NHS not integrated?
    This is a question that cries out for an answer, but I'd go further. Under the existing system, it's not just a lack of integration, it's also that over the last few years increasing hurdles have been erected for individuals seeking to navigate between the two systems.
    When someone goes into care, the responsibility of the NHS for their healthcare does not end. Under the rather misleadingly named "Continuing Healthcare Framework", the NHS is still responsible for funding the healthcare of those who have been assessed and found to have a "primary health need" as set out in the National Framework.
    As the language suggests, this process is bureaucratic, difficult to navigate for individuals (some might say deliberately so), time consuming, and increasingly likely over the last few years to end in disappointment, unless the healthcare needs are absolutely undeniable.

    One might argue that Covid patients discharged into care homes fall into the category of those who should be assessed as having a "primary health need", and should remain the responsibility of the NHS. Quite how this system has operated on the last couple of months, I do not know, but I'd be interested to find out - and it ought to be asked in any enquiry.

    @Nigelb: it was inspired by your article which as one of our posters put it was Zola-esque in its righteous anger (a point I picked up in the introduction). And I have been reading some other stuff about how patients have been treated.

    It is a difficult bureaucratic system because as a society we don’t really value old people enough as a group, whatever we may think of our own individual elders.

    I really hope there is a proper inquiry into this and real effective changes made for the sake of all those like you who have lost a loved parent or grand-parent or friend.
    Thanks, Cyclefree.

    It's also a bureaucratic system which has deliberately been rendered steadily more difficult to navigate over the couple of decades since the Coghlan case -
    https://caretobedifferent.co.uk/the-coughlan-case/
    - in order to limit as much as possible the numbers of those assessed to have a "primary health need".
    I identify with that ... our local DH seems to make its exit policies extremely difficult to get to avoid people finding out what support they are entitled too. In practice once you are out of hosp, hands get washed of it.

    Ward: "We don't give those policies out. Do an FOI".
    PALS: "We don't give those policies out. Do an FOI".

    Did an FOI, but FOIs can take 28 days.

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/patient_discharge_policy#incoming-1465497
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    Interesting header - thanks Cyclefree. Clearly wanting to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed shouldn't mean that giving NHS interests priority over, say, social care, shouldn't be questioned. The problem in getting it greater attention is that only 10% of us will end up in care, and people with family networks can predict they probably won't, so not many people feel it's about them.

    By the way, analysis of the US trade talks by Ed Malls and others here:

    https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp136

    He's got a webinar with George Osborne at lunchtime:

    https://twitter.com/edballs/status/1260098881599258624

    - whatever you think of them, they're likely to have thoughts worth hearing on this.

    That report is worth reading - interesting and accessible analysis.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445

    https://twitter.com/edmorrish/status/1259813875987419136

    I guess a few us can offer thinking Clinton was going to win last time. Although not my worst prediction.

    Not quite a prediction, but I did once (back in 1983) turn down a ticket to see U2 at a small venue saying I'd never heard of them and so wasn't interested.

    I took out a five year mortgage rate fix in early 2008. Probably cost me at least £10,000.
    Taking out a fixed rate mortgage has benefits aside from any financial gain. Can't look back and think "if only". Because otherwise a key regret would be your lack of CDS trading to take advantage of the GFC.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,645

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    Nobody knows except Trump has been my understanding so far.

    Happy to be corrected, but it seems he has just made something up hoping his base of conspiracy whackos will go along with it.
    It's about Obama showing some interest in the Flynn case before leaving office.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Flynn

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863
    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    A number of Trump's campaign team were involved in criminal behaviour, some of whom have since gone to jail.
    The Trump administration is involved in an attempt to rewrite history, with the connivance of a corrupted Justice Department* (who recently dismissed the case against Mike Flynn, one of those who had pled guilty, on exceedingly dubious grounds).
    That effort may even include their manufacturing criminal charges against some in the Obama administration.

    *You will recall Attorney General Barr's role in spinning the Mueller report before it was released. This goes way beyond that.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Stay alert: what the hell does that mean? We need clarity and guidance.

    Here's 60 pages of clarity and guidance: We can't be expected to read or understand all that. We need clear, simple messages.

    Well use your common sense then: but people don't have any common sense, I mean they voted for Brexit!!!!!
    (repeats ad nauseam).
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,456

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, Britain has succeeded in making sure its horrific death toll was achieved in an orderly fashion.

    At the start of this, I'm sure I read you say something like this disease will touch all of us in some way. Apologies if I've got that wrong, but what's changed your mind?
    It will and nothing has changed my mind. There will be no shortage of retrofitting of rationalisations afterwards, just as there was with the Second World War. Many, indeed most, things will stay the same even as we claim to have changed.
    I see, you meant changes to life rather than it being inevitable that we'd all know someone who died from the virus?
    There will be changes to life. And I’m afraid I do still expect that most of us will know someone who died of the disease.
    That seems unlikely unless the death toll is a tiny fraction of the final death toll. Depending upon how you mean "know".
    How many people were at your wedding?

    I had 116 at mine and that was considered a "small" wedding in Ireland, so with an IFR of 0.7% and assuming we reach herd immunity before a vaccine/treatment then you'd expect 80% infections and an average of 0.65 Covid-19 deaths among those who attended my wedding.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    I went onto a tracker mortgage just before lockdown. My rate was already incredibly low and now the mortgage is even cheaper... Shame I don’t have a job. :D
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,645

    This "common sense" rubbish fails to acknowledge how unequal the employer-employee relationship is, especially for vulnerable workers - the low paid, casual, zero hour contracts, the young etc. Very revealing that Hancock couldn't say whether you could be forced to go back to work or not. It's obvious that none of the posh boys in government have ever had those kind of jobs. I remember when I worked in a restaurant, we were frequently compelled to stay late to clean up and wouldn't be paid beyond a certain time. Over the course of the week you'd be working for free for five or six hours. When I asked the manager if I'd be paid beyond 11pm if I stayed, he physically ejected me from his office. I guess that was just an example of good old British common sense in action.

    On the other hand, if employees could refuse to go back to work until it is some 'nebulous' version of safe, they might never go back to work, and rely on the government effectively paying wages until the end of days.

    This is actually a position where Unions work, as if the union is a reasonable one, they can collectively make sure, in partnership with employers than sensible rules are in place to make the workplace reasonable.



    THis is driving me mad, millions of people are currently working, they followed the Government guidance and using their common sense have insitgated new working practices. I imagine from the lack of press coverage that employees are happy with the new arrangements. Why can't those on Furlough follow this same approach to return to work?
    It is the old problem - stuff works isn't Proper News.

    I remember a hilarious interview between Norman Tebbit and Brian Redhead on Radio 4, many years ago.

    Tebbit started by asking - "Why haven't you asked me about the unemployment figures... you always used to ask me about them..."

    Finally baited Redhead into asking the question through gritted teeth. After he (Redhead) admitted that falling unemployment wasn't news.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386

    Well at least you’ve dropped the ridiculous pretence that you’re a socialist now. Though the idea that I am one is something that would come as a major surprise to most left of centre posters, and indeed me.

    I think I was pretending I was a socialist. At one point I even aligned myself with something called Labour Left which was the less mental version of Momentum. And then for an entertaining 6 months I tried on "social democrat" and had friends curious about my new found liberalism.

    Its still a work in progress. And its not fashionable. But I think my political perspective is closer to Blairite than anything else. So I am sure that I will be warmly welcomed back into the Labour Party!
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    That is a very good article, Cyclefree.
    I was contemplating writing something along the same lines myself, but my head has not been in the right place for setting out anything coherent enough to form a header.

    Why are social care and NHS not integrated?
    This is a question that cries out for an answer, but I'd go further. Under the existing system, it's not just a lack of integration, it's also that over the last few years increasing hurdles have been erected for individuals seeking to navigate between the two systems.
    When someone goes into care, the responsibility of the NHS for their healthcare does not end. Under the rather misleadingly named "Continuing Healthcare Framework", the NHS is still responsible for funding the healthcare of those who have been assessed and found to have a "primary health need" as set out in the National Framework.
    As the language suggests, this process is bureaucratic, difficult to navigate for individuals (some might say deliberately so), time consuming, and increasingly likely over the last few years to end in disappointment, unless the healthcare needs are absolutely undeniable.

    One might argue that Covid patients discharged into care homes fall into the category of those who should be assessed as having a "primary health need", and should remain the responsibility of the NHS. Quite how this system has operated on the last couple of months, I do not know, but I'd be interested to find out - and it ought to be asked in any enquiry.

    @Nigelb: it was inspired by your article which as one of our posters put it was Zola-esque in its righteous anger (a point I picked up in the introduction). And I have been reading some other stuff about how patients have been treated.

    It is a difficult bureaucratic system because as a society we don’t really value old people enough as a group, whatever we may think of our own individual elders.

    I really hope there is a proper inquiry into this and real effective changes made for the sake of all those like you who have lost a loved parent or grand-parent or friend.
    Thanks, Cyclefree.

    It's also a bureaucratic system which has deliberately been rendered steadily more difficult to navigate over the couple of decades since the Coghlan case -
    https://caretobedifferent.co.uk/the-coughlan-case/
    - in order to limit as much as possible the numbers of those assessed to have a "primary health need".
    I identify with that ... our local DH seems to make its exit policies extremely difficult to get to avoid people finding out what support they are entitled too. In practice once you are out of hosp, hands get washed of it.

    Ward: "We don't give those policies out. Do an FOI".
    PALS: "We don't give those policies out. Do an FOI".

    Did an FOI, but FOIs can take 28 days.

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/patient_discharge_policy#incoming-1465497
    For those with persistence, it can be a battle that goes on for years.
    But of course most people don't have the wherewithal to pursue it.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    Stay alert: what the hell does that mean? We need clarity and guidance.

    Here's 60 pages of clarity and guidance: We can't be expected to read or understand all that. We need clear, simple messages.

    Well use your common sense then: but people don't have any common sense, I mean they voted for Brexit!!!!!
    (repeats ad nauseam).

    https://twitter.com/deGourlay/status/1259987337381130240?s=20

    The replies to the "just a plumber" are as you might expect. No one quite does condescension like #FBPE
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,781
    edited May 2020

    Well at least you’ve dropped the ridiculous pretence that you’re a socialist now. Though the idea that I am one is something that would come as a major surprise to most left of centre posters, and indeed me.

    I think I was pretending I was a socialist. At one point I even aligned myself with something called Labour Left which was the less mental version of Momentum. And then for an entertaining 6 months I tried on "social democrat" and had friends curious about my new found liberalism.

    Its still a work in progress. And its not fashionable. But I think my political perspective is closer to Blairite than anything else. So I am sure that I will be warmly welcomed back into the Labour Party!
    Labour Left is (or was?) the vehicle of one Dr Eoin Clarke. Unless there is another one out there.

    Their blog was where he published at least some of his apologies for lying about people.

    His current vehicle is the @toryfibs Twitter account, though he has had half a dozen in between, since he was using his "Dr" Moniker whilst promoting conspiracy theories about NHS privatisation.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    I think that plumber should be Prime Minister to be honest.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:
    In fairness, that would be part of any government’s strategy at some point.
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    coachcoach Posts: 250
    Jonathan said:

    coach said:

    Jonathan said:

    coach said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I should have also mentioned that care home workers are dying at twice the rate of NHS workers. It is a scandal. Some of the people doing the most valuable work, poorly paid and little valued are being denied the PPE they need and are dying because of this. They are also a vector for retransmission into the wider community.

    The whole purpose of lockdown was to protect the vulnerable. If we can’t even do that, really what is the point of it all?

    If anything positive comes out of this it may be that people think twice about sending Mum off to a care home where greedy owners and (some) negligent staff are paid to see her through her dying days
    What on Earth are you talking about?
    I'm talking about more elderly people being cared for at home rather than being abandoned
    Do you speak from personal experience?
    Yep
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo just can't help himself.

    Brief the spin to the papers

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1259941601838800899

    Then spend the next day winding it back and cleaning it up

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1260109715322871813

    You only had to listen to the PM's broadcast to know there will be no summer holidays this year. Most kids will not be at school, do you really think that they will let kids loose in a Haven Holiday Park? Just get real.

    Primary schools will be back next month, I suspect most people will try and have a holiday in England or a non quarantined country like France or Ireland
    Lockdown someplace else? Meet in another park? Sounds amazing.
    Restaurants, cafes, hotels, shops, cathedrals and churches are also due to have reopened by mid July
    Incorrect. They are not “due” to open by mid July, they “may” be allowed to open in mid July if it is “safe to do so”.
    So they are still due to do so unless there is a surge in cases again by then
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    https://twitter.com/edmorrish/status/1259813875987419136

    I guess a few us can offer thinking Clinton was going to win last time. Although not my worst prediction.

    Not quite a prediction, but I did once (back in 1983) turn down a ticket to see U2 at a small venue saying I'd never heard of them and so wasn't interested.

    I took out a five year mortgage rate fix in early 2008. Probably cost me at least £10,000.
    Similar for me - I predicted interest rates would rise steadily from 2012 onwards. Probably cost me £50,000 by not gambling and getting on the housing market - but then I am still mortgage free, so perhaps it's come good for me now.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Incidentally, despite the white noise from the twitterati and the wishful left, I'm afraid Boris is doing a good job. His popularity remains high and he will go on to win a thumping victory at the next election.

    You may not like it. I don't. But it's what will happen.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,602

    This "common sense" rubbish fails to acknowledge how unequal the employer-employee relationship is, especially for vulnerable workers - the low paid, casual, zero hour contracts, the young etc. Very revealing that Hancock couldn't say whether you could be forced to go back to work or not. It's obvious that none of the posh boys in government have ever had those kind of jobs. I remember when I worked in a restaurant, we were frequently compelled to stay late to clean up and wouldn't be paid beyond a certain time. Over the course of the week you'd be working for free for five or six hours. When I asked the manager if I'd be paid beyond 11pm if I stayed, he physically ejected me from his office. I guess that was just an example of good old British common sense in action.

    On the other hand, if employees could refuse to go back to work until it is some 'nebulous' version of safe, they might never go back to work, and rely on the government effectively paying wages until the end of days.

    This is actually a position where Unions work, as if the union is a reasonable one, they can collectively make sure, in partnership with employers than sensible rules are in place to make the workplace reasonable.



    THis is driving me mad, millions of people are currently working, they followed the Government guidance and using their common sense have insitgated new working practices. I imagine from the lack of press coverage that employees are happy with the new arrangements. Why can't those on Furlough follow this same approach to return to work?
    Depends where they are working.

    There are about 6 million people on furlough at the moment; are there any breakdowns as to the types of business they work for?

    A quick google throws up about 3 million people working in hospitality in 2015. Presumably most of them aren't working at the moment. Partly because of safety at work- but also because it's pretty clear that most of their customers would stay away until they feel safe.

    Which is why the bumbling and uncertainty of the government is harmful to the economy. If the public doesn't feel safe, they won't act confidently.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    Lord Sumption at about 37 mins, on yesterday's PM programme.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j1yr
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    Incidentally, despite the white noise from the twitterati and the wishful left, I'm afraid Boris is doing a good job. His popularity remains high and he will go on to win a thumping victory at the next election.

    You may not like it. I don't. But it's what will happen.

    Depends what happens once we are likely on WTO terms next year and in the aftermath of Covid.

    I cannot see Starmer winning a majority against Boris but he could do a deal with the LDs and SNP
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    Fundamentally the problem with social care is that it costs a lot of money. We could have great social care but no-one wants to pay for it. Gordon Brown came up with a plan that was dubbed the "death tax" and he lost the election. Theresa May came up with a different plan that was dubbed the dementia tax and was a massive vote loser.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372

    Well at least you’ve dropped the ridiculous pretence that you’re a socialist now. Though the idea that I am one is something that would come as a major surprise to most left of centre posters, and indeed me.

    I think I was pretending I was a socialist. At one point I even aligned myself with something called Labour Left which was the less mental version of Momentum. And then for an entertaining 6 months I tried on "social democrat" and had friends curious about my new found liberalism.

    Its still a work in progress. And its not fashionable. But I think my political perspective is closer to Blairite than anything else. So I am sure that I will be warmly welcomed back into the Labour Party!
    I'm always dubious about the benefit of labels! My CLP has a Momentum chair (me), a Blair enthusiast (and former helicopter pilot in Afghanistan) as its Parliamentary candidate in 2019, and diverse opinions in between, We all rub along happily, and you're very welcome as far as I'm concerned. I expect there are things we would disagree on, but there's lots more to talk about, so no need to go there.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    edited May 2020

    DavidL said:

    Stay alert: what the hell does that mean? We need clarity and guidance.

    Here's 60 pages of clarity and guidance: We can't be expected to read or understand all that. We need clear, simple messages.

    Well use your common sense then: but people don't have any common sense, I mean they voted for Brexit!!!!!
    (repeats ad nauseam).

    https://twitter.com/deGourlay/status/1259987337381130240?s=20

    The replies to the "just a plumber" are as you might expect. No one quite does condescension like #FBPE
    I saw this interview last night, you could tell the interviewer was gutted
    Slightly amazing that Channel 4 News broadcast the interview. Maybe they did so just to show what an "idiot" he was, not realising that millions of people would be in agreement with what he said.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233

    This "common sense" rubbish fails to acknowledge how unequal the employer-employee relationship is, especially for vulnerable workers - the low paid, casual, zero hour contracts, the young etc. Very revealing that Hancock couldn't say whether you could be forced to go back to work or not. It's obvious that none of the posh boys in government have ever had those kind of jobs. I remember when I worked in a restaurant, we were frequently compelled to stay late to clean up and wouldn't be paid beyond a certain time. Over the course of the week you'd be working for free for five or six hours. When I asked the manager if I'd be paid beyond 11pm if I stayed, he physically ejected me from his office. I guess that was just an example of good old British common sense in action.

    On the other hand, if employees could refuse to go back to work until it is some 'nebulous' version of safe, they might never go back to work, and rely on the government effectively paying wages until the end of days.

    This is actually a position where Unions work, as if the union is a reasonable one, they can collectively make sure, in partnership with employers than sensible rules are in place to make the workplace reasonable.



    THis is driving me mad, millions of people are currently working, they followed the Government guidance and using their common sense have insitgated new working practices. I imagine from the lack of press coverage that employees are happy with the new arrangements. Why can't those on Furlough follow this same approach to return to work?
    You run a restaurant. The kitchen space is small (not unusual in many professional kitchens). You have two chefs and waiters coming in and out to collect food and put dirty plates in the washer. If the 2 metre guidance is to be observed there can only be one chef and no-one else can come into the kitchen? How does that restaurant operate?

    You run a small cinema in a market town. If the 2 metre guidance is to be observed in the entrance, in the cinema itself and in the exits, the audiences would be so small as to make the venue wholly unprofitable.

    You run a music festival: many of its performances are by touring opera companies, orchestras and other musical bands. None of them can produce their performances by standing 2 metres apart. Nor can the audience hear them if they have to sit apart. The bar is unable to operate under the guidance.

    These are three practical examples which I know of. If you have some suggestion for working practices which allow such venues to operate viably please share them. Because there are thousands of such venues and many others like them and social distancing will ensure that they will have to close down, no matter how many times people with no actual practical experience of how such business operate and make money witter about “common-sense”.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    edited May 2020

    Fundamentally the problem with social care is that it costs a lot of money. We could have great social care but no-one wants to pay for it. Gordon Brown came up with a plan that was dubbed the "death tax" and he lost the election. Theresa May came up with a different plan that was dubbed the dementia tax and was a massive vote loser.

    It's not just that people don't want to pay for it now. They never have done. When most of the people currently in nursing homes were young, most of them didn't want to pay for it either.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925
    Great header raising lots of interesting questions.

    I have now googled Lord Denning, because I was incredulous that a judge could say something like that. I now see I was very naïve.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300

    This "common sense" rubbish fails to acknowledge how unequal the employer-employee relationship is, especially for vulnerable workers - the low paid, casual, zero hour contracts, the young etc. Very revealing that Hancock couldn't say whether you could be forced to go back to work or not. It's obvious that none of the posh boys in government have ever had those kind of jobs. I remember when I worked in a restaurant, we were frequently compelled to stay late to clean up and wouldn't be paid beyond a certain time. Over the course of the week you'd be working for free for five or six hours. When I asked the manager if I'd be paid beyond 11pm if I stayed, he physically ejected me from his office. I guess that was just an example of good old British common sense in action.

    On the other hand, if employees could refuse to go back to work until it is some 'nebulous' version of safe, they might never go back to work, and rely on the government effectively paying wages until the end of days.

    This is actually a position where Unions work, as if the union is a reasonable one, they can collectively make sure, in partnership with employers than sensible rules are in place to make the workplace reasonable.



    THis is driving me mad, millions of people are currently working, they followed the Government guidance and using their common sense have insitgated new working practices. I imagine from the lack of press coverage that employees are happy with the new arrangements. Why can't those on Furlough follow this same approach to return to work?
    It is the old problem - stuff works isn't Proper News.

    I remember a hilarious interview between Norman Tebbit and Brian Redhead on Radio 4, many years ago.

    Tebbit started by asking - "Why haven't you asked me about the unemployment figures... you always used to ask me about them..."

    Finally baited Redhead into asking the question through gritted teeth. After he (Redhead) admitted that falling unemployment wasn't news.
    I don't think i have heard the media mention the food boxes for the shielded once....and quickly shut up about ventaliators, when 1000s of these CPAP masks were being churned out.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Why are nightclubs open if football is being played behind closed doors? That does not make sense to me.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,054

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    Nobody knows except Trump has been my understanding so far.

    Happy to be corrected, but it seems he has just made something up hoping his base of conspiracy whackos will go along with it.
    It is more sinister than that as it will be reinforced by the usual army of bots.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Complicate by homophobia:

    South Korea's capital city of Seoul announced on Tuesday (May 12) that its nightclub cluster of coronavirus cases had risen to 101, up from 86 the previous day.

    The "come forward, get tested" strategy that has helped the country contain its Covid-19 outbreak has run into an obstacle: its longstanding homophobia.

    In South Korea's latest outbreak linked to clubs, several of them frequented by gay customers, health officials are trying to track more than 5,500 people who visited the bars between April 24 and May 6. But more than half remain out of reach, while the infections tied to the bars continue to rise.


    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/homophobia-poses-obstacle-to-south-koreas-coronavirus-strategy-as-nightclub-cluster
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    eekeek Posts: 25,037

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    Nobody knows except Trump has been my understanding so far.

    Happy to be corrected, but it seems he has just made something up hoping his base of conspiracy whackos will go along with it.
    So see Scotland and the use of Independence whenever things / questions get difficult?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,039
    edited May 2020

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    By accepting the risk, in conjunction with vulnerable groups remaining shielded. Life has to return to normal fairly soon.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    My worst sporting prediction came at 17:00 on Saturday 26 September 2015 when walking back to the car from the King Power Stadium. Having seen Leicester lose 5-2 to Arsenal I said to my friends "Leicester might be in trouble this season."
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    coach said:

    Jonathan said:

    coach said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I should have also mentioned that care home workers are dying at twice the rate of NHS workers. It is a scandal. Some of the people doing the most valuable work, poorly paid and little valued are being denied the PPE they need and are dying because of this. They are also a vector for retransmission into the wider community.

    The whole purpose of lockdown was to protect the vulnerable. If we can’t even do that, really what is the point of it all?

    If anything positive comes out of this it may be that people think twice about sending Mum off to a care home where greedy owners and (some) negligent staff are paid to see her through her dying days
    What on Earth are you talking about?
    I'm talking about more elderly people being cared for at home rather than being abandoned
    Interesting approach - blame the families.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    DavidL said:

    Stay alert: what the hell does that mean? We need clarity and guidance.

    Here's 60 pages of clarity and guidance: We can't be expected to read or understand all that. We need clear, simple messages.

    Well use your common sense then: but people don't have any common sense, I mean they voted for Brexit!!!!!
    (repeats ad nauseam).

    Just put the press on ignore.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    Nobody knows except Trump has been my understanding so far.

    Happy to be corrected, but it seems he has just made something up hoping his base of conspiracy whackos will go along with it.
    Even his usual enablers seem to have doubts. Though they are playing along with the 'investigate the Obama administration'.

    Senate Republicans break with Trump over ‘Obamagate’
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/11/senate-republicans-trump-obamagate-249734
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:


    That’s just a long-winded way of saying that the government’s new strategy is to blame individuals if they fall ill and businesses if they close down.

    Why not - they are responsible for H&S at work before during and after Covid.

    Do you want the government running businesses for them now ? Communism by Covid .
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    eekeek Posts: 25,037
    Chris said:

    coach said:

    Jonathan said:

    coach said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I should have also mentioned that care home workers are dying at twice the rate of NHS workers. It is a scandal. Some of the people doing the most valuable work, poorly paid and little valued are being denied the PPE they need and are dying because of this. They are also a vector for retransmission into the wider community.

    The whole purpose of lockdown was to protect the vulnerable. If we can’t even do that, really what is the point of it all?

    If anything positive comes out of this it may be that people think twice about sending Mum off to a care home where greedy owners and (some) negligent staff are paid to see her through her dying days
    What on Earth are you talking about?
    I'm talking about more elderly people being cared for at home rather than being abandoned
    Interesting approach - blame the families.
    I seem to remember someone with similar viewpoints disappeared off this site last week.

    As we said then dealing with dementia is something that requires trained people who are detached from the family - otherwise it's beyond painful.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited May 2020

    //twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1260126596847017984?s=20
    twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1260127011605024768?s=20

    Prof Cricket...had to explain it was falling last week to the numpties...

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1260134471971602438?s=19
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    Powerful header by Cyclefree. The rationing of health care discussed under "Staying at home when ill" is in retrospect (already!) something to be concerned about as it is a likely factor in our poor performance in comparison with Germany. The overriding policy objective was to protect the NHS which was done by making it less accessible to ill people! Our centralised health system doesn't score well against Germany's decentralised one.

    “The overriding policy objective was to protect the NHS which was done by making it less accessible to ill people!“

    Indeed. When policy is to protect an institution at the expense of those it is meant to serve, something is very wrong in our approach.

    Reverence is a very poor basis for decision-making. Treating the NHS as a sacred cow to be worshipped is daft.
    Response to an epidemic is a perfect example of health care provision as a "public good". The epidemic calls for a coordinated national response, and you would think the NHS is ideally suited to deal with it. Yet our centralised system has, at least up to this point, shown itself to be less than the sum of its parts. The reverence, idolatry and the clapping are fine for the health workers, but the system appears to have feet of clay.

  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1259918935845220352?s=20

    Hilarious. Makes bitter old fools looks very stupid.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,645
    rkrkrk said:

    Great header raising lots of interesting questions.

    I have now googled Lord Denning, because I was incredulous that a judge could say something like that. I now see I was very naïve.

    The same kind of opinion still exists in official circles - just not applied to Police evidence anymore.

    Hence certain issues where public officials were *proud* that prosecutions were prevented.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    DavidL said:

    Stay alert: what the hell does that mean? We need clarity and guidance.

    Here's 60 pages of clarity and guidance: We can't be expected to read or understand all that. We need clear, simple messages.

    Well use your common sense then: but people don't have any common sense, I mean they voted for Brexit!!!!!
    (repeats ad nauseam).

    https://twitter.com/deGourlay/status/1259987337381130240?s=20

    The replies to the "just a plumber" are as you might expect. No one quite does condescension like #FBPE
    I saw this interview last night, you could tell the interviewer was gutted
    This man is the perfect antidote to the learned helplessness and affected idiocy of the Twitterised commentariat - like a tall glass of cool water in the middle of a fucking desert.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    DavidL said:

    This "common sense" rubbish fails to acknowledge how unequal the employer-employee relationship is, especially for vulnerable workers - the low paid, casual, zero hour contracts, the young etc. Very revealing that Hancock couldn't say whether you could be forced to go back to work or not. It's obvious that none of the posh boys in government have ever had those kind of jobs. I remember when I worked in a restaurant, we were frequently compelled to stay late to clean up and wouldn't be paid beyond a certain time. Over the course of the week you'd be working for free for five or six hours. When I asked the manager if I'd be paid beyond 11pm if I stayed, he physically ejected me from his office. I guess that was just an example of good old British common sense in action.

    This is indeed a problem. I am due to give a talk on this (from the employers' perspective) in a couple of weeks. How does an employer decide it is safe to return to work? What responsibility does he have for the fact that this might involve the use of public transport? How can social distancing be enforced on a building site, in an office or call centre? What steps need to be taken to sterilise equipment and common surfaces? Can they provide canteen facilities? I honestly don't know the answer to much of this yet.
    To give him credit, Elon Musk is going to be mucking in and working on the shop floor with his employees from now on.

    I'm not sure for how long, but I assume at least until everyone has been vaccinated.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,645

    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
    First thing that comes to mind - 14 days quarantine for everyone will shut the freight industry down. Quite neatly. Much more effective than WTO rules.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    tlg86 said:

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Why are nightclubs open if football is being played behind closed doors? That does not make sense to me.
    It is a good question. Sports are being played in empty stadiums, but you can go and dance in a hot sweaty room with 1000s of others. Seems a huge logical fail.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Complicate by homophobia:

    South Korea's capital city of Seoul announced on Tuesday (May 12) that its nightclub cluster of coronavirus cases had risen to 101, up from 86 the previous day.

    The "come forward, get tested" strategy that has helped the country contain its Covid-19 outbreak has run into an obstacle: its longstanding homophobia.

    In South Korea's latest outbreak linked to clubs, several of them frequented by gay customers, health officials are trying to track more than 5,500 people who visited the bars between April 24 and May 6. But more than half remain out of reach, while the infections tied to the bars continue to rise.


    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/homophobia-poses-obstacle-to-south-koreas-coronavirus-strategy-as-nightclub-cluster
    Korean society is where we were, perhaps a couple of decades back, on this.

    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/05/356_289414.html
    ...Health Minister Park Neung-hoo is under fire for remarks on the sexual minority community related to a new COVID-19 outbreak centered around clubs in Itaewon.

    The controversy started Monday after a Telegram message by South Gyeongsang Province Governor Kim Kyoung-soo in a group chat with other government officials came to the attention of a local news agency, News 1.

    "The health minister's remarks during the previous meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, that strong measures are needed especially in Seoul's Itaewon, Nonhyeon and Ikseon areas as they are frequented by the sexual minority community, are highly dangerous comments," read Kim's message. Kim sent the message after a closed meeting on the coronavirus outbreak at the Government Complex Seoul, which Kim and other governors attended through a video call.

    "Such remarks are not only discriminatory against sexual minorities but also give the impression that the government's measures against the new COVID-19 outbreaks centering on Itaewon target sexual minorities. I am concerned that the minister is viewing the issue that way," Kim's message read....

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233

    Cyclefree said:
    In fairness, that would be part of any government’s strategy at some point.
    If so, let’s cut the crap, abandon all this social distancing advice and let people make their own decisions about how to live and operate. Pretending that things can be made “safe” and that there will be a time when closed businesses can reopen using the new guidance is a cruel deception.
  • Options
    Not going to make myself very popular with these two questions, and it will certainly prove how dim I am but:

    1. Something like 84% of care homes are private, with fees up to £2,000 per week. I fully appreciate that the people within the care homes, both staff and patients, are entitled to protection by the state, but do the owners not have any responsibility?

    2. What does an NHS Procurement Manager actually do for his £45,000 per year?
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Labour can be laid at only 3.45 to get a MAJORITY at the next GE. That`s extraordinary isn`t it? Long time (probably) to tie your money up for though.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    Cyclefree said:


    That’s just a long-winded way of saying that the government’s new strategy is to blame individuals if they fall ill and businesses if they close down.

    Why not - they are responsible for H&S at work before during and after Covid.

    Do you want the government running businesses for them now ? Communism by Covid .
    That's exactly what some people want.

    Some people haven't got over losing on Brexit and losing the last election. Now they're trying to use coronavirus to attack the Government when we should all be pulling together in a non-partisan manner to get out of this. Of course mistakes were made but it doesn't help to jump up and down every day on the minutest alleged slip-up when the roadmap is complicated.

    I'm afraid that, once again, my fellow lefties are showing themselves up in a very poor light.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,372
    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    Powerful header by Cyclefree. The rationing of health care discussed under "Staying at home when ill" is in retrospect (already!) something to be concerned about as it is a likely factor in our poor performance in comparison with Germany. The overriding policy objective was to protect the NHS which was done by making it less accessible to ill people! Our centralised health system doesn't score well against Germany's decentralised one.

    “The overriding policy objective was to protect the NHS which was done by making it less accessible to ill people!“

    Indeed. When policy is to protect an institution at the expense of those it is meant to serve, something is very wrong in our approach.

    Reverence is a very poor basis for decision-making. Treating the NHS as a sacred cow to be worshipped is daft.
    Response to an epidemic is a perfect example of health care provision as a "public good". The epidemic calls for a coordinated national response, and you would think the NHS is ideally suited to deal with it. Yet our centralised system has, at least up to this point, shown itself to be less than the sum of its parts. The reverence, idolatry and the clapping are fine for the health workers, but the system appears to have feet of clay.

    While I agreed downthread that the NHS shouldn't be protected in the sense of considering it in isolation from social care and other factors, that's nothing to do with opposing a centrally-coordinated health system. Overall I don't think the NHS has done badly - where cracks have appeared they were generally for reasons outside NHS managers' control - late lockdown, PPE shortages. A sensible analysis of how it should do better shouldn't be a vehicle for political rhetoric about sacred cows and idolatry.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300

    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
    First thing that comes to mind - 14 days quarantine for everyone will shut the freight industry down. Quite neatly. Much more effective than WTO rules.
    Oh no i think for freight is fine, that is happening across Europe. It was the idea of going on a jollie in July that have reservations.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
    This is currently who can enter France from the UK (or anywhere)



    https://twitter.com/lefoudubaron/status/1259813102708838401?s=20
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    edited May 2020
    The Gov't needs to implement something specifically for care homes yesterday that goes beyond the previous lockdown measures.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,576
    edited May 2020

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1259918935845220352?s=20

    Hilarious. Makes bitter old fools looks very stupid.

    For him, government advice is to carry on. No change is easy. Those who the government wants to change their behaviour, say by going back to work, might want greater clarity.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, Britain has succeeded in making sure its horrific death toll was achieved in an orderly fashion.

    At the start of this, I'm sure I read you say something like this disease will touch all of us in some way. Apologies if I've got that wrong, but what's changed your mind?
    It will and nothing has changed my mind. There will be no shortage of retrofitting of rationalisations afterwards, just as there was with the Second World War. Many, indeed most, things will stay the same even as we claim to have changed.
    I see, you meant changes to life rather than it being inevitable that we'd all know someone who died from the virus?
    There will be changes to life. And I’m afraid I do still expect that most of us will know someone who died of the disease.
    That seems unlikely unless the death toll is a tiny fraction of the final death toll. Depending upon how you mean "know".
    How many people were at your wedding?

    I had 116 at mine and that was considered a "small" wedding in Ireland, so with an IFR of 0.7% and assuming we reach herd immunity before a vaccine/treatment then you'd expect 80% infections and an average of 0.65 Covid-19 deaths among those who attended my wedding.
    40 at the ceremony, total of 60 at the wedding breakfast and party afterwards. Wanted it close friends and family not acquaintances.

    My closest connection to a death in real life through this is someone I very briefly worked with a decade ago. I worked with a father and son - the father very briefly about 12 years ago, the son for longer, but even he I stopped working with and last spoke to him nearly a decade ago. I found out from a mutual friend last week that his father had died of CV19. I feel very, very sorry for him, but I don't especially consider someone I briefly worked with 12 years ago and have never spoken to since to be someone I truly "know".
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Yes, it's been clear for a week or so that, in England at least, community transmission has fallen to well below R1 but transmission in care homes is probably hovering above R1.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863
    Chris said:

    coach said:

    Jonathan said:

    coach said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I should have also mentioned that care home workers are dying at twice the rate of NHS workers. It is a scandal. Some of the people doing the most valuable work, poorly paid and little valued are being denied the PPE they need and are dying because of this. They are also a vector for retransmission into the wider community.

    The whole purpose of lockdown was to protect the vulnerable. If we can’t even do that, really what is the point of it all?

    If anything positive comes out of this it may be that people think twice about sending Mum off to a care home where greedy owners and (some) negligent staff are paid to see her through her dying days
    What on Earth are you talking about?
    I'm talking about more elderly people being cared for at home rather than being abandoned
    Interesting approach - blame the families.
    And an unproductive one.
    Those who are inclined to abandon their ageing parents are unlikely to change. And it's deeply offensive to those who make every effort to keep parents out of care until forced by circumstance.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    This man review nails Westworld Season 3...It could have been written by our own Malky G.

    https://youtu.be/ZJ9aCMqT5iE
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    tlg86 said:

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Why are nightclubs open if football is being played behind closed doors? That does not make sense to me.
    It is a good question. Sports are being played in empty stadiums, but you can go and dance in a hot sweaty room with 1000s of others. Seems a huge logical fail.
    Young people, innit? If you were over 50, you would be ill-advised to attend such nightclubs.

    The medical advice posted here recently to stay at home and have a wank seems apposite.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,645

    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
    First thing that comes to mind - 14 days quarantine for everyone will shut the freight industry down. Quite neatly. Much more effective than WTO rules.
    Oh no i think for freight is fine, that is happening across Europe. It was the idea of going on a jollie in July that have reservations.
    I mean the assumption that a free movement area* was entirely for jollies to the wine regions or something.

    *Yes, exactly.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:
    God I hate the American practice of putting the difference in brackets and not the change. I want changes dammit.
    Absolutely! Are Americans so thick they can't think for themselves what the net difference is between 40 and 53?
    I think it's that because they have a much more entrenched two-party system it is possible to reduce the poll simply to the lead without giving the figures. It's much more usual for a US poll to be reported as "Biden +5", because all the other parameters are known.

    In the UK if you say the Tories are 10 points ahead then there have been times when it wouldn't have been obvious whether Labour were second, or another party was.
    I doubt that's it, the two parties have been the two parties almost all the time and if another party enters the top two that's generally reported as news.

    We tend to emphasise the swing in a way the American reporting just doesn't seem to, despite their love of talk of "the Big Mo"
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
    This is currently who can enter France from the UK (or anywhere)



    https://twitter.com/lefoudubaron/status/1259813102708838401?s=20
    Meanwhile for the UK it's still anyone who fancies it I think.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Cyclefree said:
    It's not a question of blame, its a question of risk. We need to get on with life whilst being alert to the risks that this virus imposes.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can someone explain what Obamagate is about? I feel massively out of the loop.

    Nobody knows except Trump has been my understanding so far.

    Happy to be corrected, but it seems he has just made something up hoping his base of conspiracy whackos will go along with it.
    Even his usual enablers seem to have doubts. Though they are playing along with the 'investigate the Obama administration'.

    Senate Republicans break with Trump over ‘Obamagate’
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/11/senate-republicans-trump-obamagate-249734
    It's slightly more than that. It goes back to, pre-the 2016 election, the FBI had been granted permission to spy on the Trump campaign without telling the courts that it was off the back of information paid for by Hillary Clinton's team. When Trump unexpectedly won, Trump is claiming that Obama deliberately tried to sabotage the incoming administration by playing up the Russian links and that Flynn was specifically targeted because he was the one member of the incoming administration who knew how the intelligence services operated and therefore what would have been the chain of command for seeking permission to spy on Trump i.e. to Obama himself.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    Chancellor Rishi Sunak is to reveal the future of the government's job retention scheme later, amid growing calls to extend it.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,576
    edited May 2020

    This man review nails Westworld Season 3...It could have been written by our own Malky G.

    youtu.be/ZJ9aCMqT5iE

    The reviewer watched the whole series though. What I try to do, not always successfully, is remember I do not have to finish; I can bail out if a book, film or television series is frustrating or boring.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the idea is they have put this in place for freight and then in 2-3 months time it will transition to holiday makers. And same with Ireland.

    I have personal reservations, but i believe that is the logic.

    I think the idea is that in 2-3 months you will be able to.
    This is currently who can enter France from the UK (or anywhere)



    https://twitter.com/lefoudubaron/status/1259813102708838401?s=20
    Meanwhile for the UK it's still anyone who fancies it I think.
    So you CAN transit through France to reach your residence? My question then is this: what happens to a UK citizen arriving at Heathrow or St Pancras International? Will authorities have any clue if they have arrived from Hanoi via Paris?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    tlg86 said:

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Why are nightclubs open if football is being played behind closed doors? That does not make sense to me.
    It is a good question. Sports are being played in empty stadiums, but you can go and dance in a hot sweaty room with 1000s of others. Seems a huge logical fail.
    Young people, innit? If you were over 50, you would be ill-advised to attend such nightclubs.

    The medical advice posted here recently to stay at home and have a wank seems apposite.
    Well, yes, but those young people are liable to spread it through the rest of the population, although I guess South Korea are all over them with the track and trace stuff.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,181
    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption at about 37 mins, on yesterday's PM programme.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j1yr

    Is this the same Sumption who thought the poor were breeding too much in the 1970s?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    TGOHF666 said:

    Cyclefree said:


    That’s just a long-winded way of saying that the government’s new strategy is to blame individuals if they fall ill and businesses if they close down.

    Why not - they are responsible for H&S at work before during and after Covid.

    Do you want the government running businesses for them now ? Communism by Covid .
    That is precisely what the government is doing now. It is not letting businesses operate and make their own decisions about what to do. It is preventing them from doing so, dishonestly holding out the hope that they “may” be able to reopen at some point and will then wash its hands of them when it turns out they can’t.

    It will not make “social distancing” the law because that would stop many from going to work at all - there is no “social distancing” possible on trains, tubes and buses - so it will do it indirectly - and then blame them. And the blunt fact is that this is not their fault.

    Whereas how this government dealt with this is the government’s responsibility and the steps it has and has not taken have made things worse than they would otherwise have been for many people and firms. Better be honest and provide some sort of compensation and help to transition to this new world than pretend that in a few weeks this will all be eased and lifted.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    Andy_JS said:

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    By accepting the risk, in conjunction with vulnerable groups remaining shielded. Life has to return to normal fairly soon.
    Unfortunately the Virus says "No".
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    In fairness, that would be part of any government’s strategy at some point.
    If so, let’s cut the crap, abandon all this social distancing advice and let people make their own decisions about how to live and operate. Pretending that things can be made “safe” and that there will be a time when closed businesses can reopen using the new guidance is a cruel deception.
    I really don't think that people are deceived. There is a virus. It is dangerous. Contact with others or with things others have touched creates risk. Be aware of that and act appropriately. But do not let yourself be paralysed into not living or earning.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, it's been clear for a week or so that, in England at least, community transmission has fallen to well below R1 but transmission in care homes is probably hovering above R1.
    If it was above 1 then why are deaths falling (and have been for nearly a month) in care homes?

    The virus is one that particularly targets the elderly with co-morbidities. Who of course are those resident in care homes and they can't be either shielded or socially distanced in the same way as their more healthy and less dependent cohorts of the same age range can be.

    Sending at risk of being positive patients into them is a bloody moronic idea and I'm glad its been stopped but the tragic reality is this virus would hit care homes like a ton of bricks come what may - it has in every nation in the world. Which is why we should be doing what we can to shield them even if they can't be shielded in the same way as others can be.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Scott_xP said:
    Fucking Shapps, knew he was the bed blocker on quarantine.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Fucking Shapps, knew he was the bed blocker on quarantine.
    The thing is, I'd have been really keen on it 3 months ago. It doesn't really make a huge amount of sense right now.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Some 101 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus after a cluster outbreak at clubs in Seoul’s party district of Itaewon.

    One night out, 100 new cases and still rising. I honestly don't see how we get back to indoor mass events.

    Why are nightclubs open if football is being played behind closed doors? That does not make sense to me.
    It is a good question. Sports are being played in empty stadiums, but you can go and dance in a hot sweaty room with 1000s of others. Seems a huge logical fail.
    Young people, innit? If you were over 50, you would be ill-advised to attend such nightclubs.

    The medical advice posted here recently to stay at home and have a wank seems apposite.
    Well, yes, but those young people are liable to spread it through the rest of the population, although I guess South Korea are all over them with the track and trace stuff.
    That is indeed the difference. The problem being that with prehistoric attitudes to wards gays still rife in Korean society, many of those who were there don't want to be tracked and traced.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited May 2020
    How are the government found it so complicated to come up with a plan to close the borders when everybody else has done it & we are a friggin island.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Does anyone know the cumulative excess deaths figure from the ONS?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386

    Well at least you’ve dropped the ridiculous pretence that you’re a socialist now. Though the idea that I am one is something that would come as a major surprise to most left of centre posters, and indeed me.

    I think I was pretending I was a socialist. At one point I even aligned myself with something called Labour Left which was the less mental version of Momentum. And then for an entertaining 6 months I tried on "social democrat" and had friends curious about my new found liberalism.

    Its still a work in progress. And its not fashionable. But I think my political perspective is closer to Blairite than anything else. So I am sure that I will be warmly welcomed back into the Labour Party!
    I'm always dubious about the benefit of labels! My CLP has a Momentum chair (me), a Blair enthusiast (and former helicopter pilot in Afghanistan) as its Parliamentary candidate in 2019, and diverse opinions in between, We all rub along happily, and you're very welcome as far as I'm concerned. I expect there are things we would disagree on, but there's lots more to talk about, so no need to go there.
    Thats appreciated Nick. As you will know local parties are largely a rule unto themselves. My CLP are largely moderate and calm and a waived through acceptance of my return at the inevitable EC objection vote has been assured. Many won't be happy though, and I expect several further complaints (including someone who defected from the LibDems to Labour who is apparently aggrieved that I have the gall to defect from the LDs to Labour).

    The fun bit is the BLP. Its largely dormant, with the only active members left the angry and self-righteous. I had a bit of row with the Secretary about them openly advocating the "Socialist Action" so-called newspaper on a local FB politics site. He responded by posting photo after photo of its insane demands with "noboy in the Labour Party can object to that". The acting Chair (a personal friend and a long-standing Blairite of old before entering the Black Sleep of the Kali-Ma) posts endless rants against the BBC and has now blocked me.

    Until May last year this branch held 4 out of 7 councillors in our town. Its now zero, the dynamic campaigning branch that I once led is in ruins, and the lunatic trots are all that is left and they're still pissing into the water supply. Will be fun when I next get to go to a branch meeting...
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,375
    Thanks for Header. On topic -

    Social care is a mess because we value the right to pass and receive a large tax-free inheritance above the responsibility to provide dignity for all in old age. This is the choice we have made. Little point moaning about it if we are not prepared to make a different value judgment.
This discussion has been closed.