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One of the features of the current lockdown is just how thoughtful and generous people are. Shopping is a massive challenge for us at the moment because it is almost impossible to get delivery slots from the supermarket and we cannot countenance the risk of going ourselves
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I've laid both, but dyor.
Kelly, The Great Mortality. Just so you all know what to expect.
For all the screams of sinophobia etc, there is no way a sensible US president will want to get caught out again. In the same way as all developed nations are moving away from dependance on Saudi oil and Russian gas, it is a national security issue not to have a situation like China making 97% of all antibiotics or India making basically all the paracetamol.
A huge, ambitious rebuilding of the European economy to reshore jobs and supply chains from China. The aim of the scheme would be to bring back critical and sensitive manufacturing back from China and rebuild those industries in the worst affected nations. This would be a 10-15 year aim and not related to the emergency funding of €1.5tn that the ECB has recommended. This would be a huge €1.5tn fund of its own for economic stimulus going way, way beyond the patch job the ECB have recommended (which hasn't been met).
The main question is how to fund it. First lets look at the main reason why the Coronabond has been seen as a non-starter - they are, in essence, a debt mutualisation scheme under the umbrella of the EU. It allows poorer nations to benefit from the credit ratings of the wealthier nations, however, and this is the main sticking point, it also mutualises debt servicing costs. For the €1.5tn aim at a 1% annual average interest rate it would cost €15bn per year to service the bonds, this would come out of common EU funds which means the not only are the wealthy nations on the hook in case of default, they're also on the hook for the debt servicing cost. It is a scheme that has little to no support in northern Europe and also has no democratic mandate within the EU, this scheme would require treaty change, which is a whole new can of worms (and one that was avoided even during the EMU debt crisis).
There is nothing in it for the wealthier nations other than this ethereal concept of solidarity. It has been blatantly obvious to anyone watching for the last few years that solidarity was never going to be enough to get any kind of action on this.
The answer is split the difference. The spread on German and Italian debt currently sits at just under 2%, that means Germany can borrow money at an interest rate 2% lower than Italy. On average the nations who want the money need to pay around 1.5% more in interest than the nations who would be doing the borrowing. By splitting the difference both sides gain. Italy is suddenly able to access €400bn in no strings attached money at an interest rate of 0.6%, meaning debt servicing costs of €3.5bn per year vs something closer to €9bn once the increase in yields is taken into account due to new debt issuance.
It is not a fullproof plan and I'm sure there would be a lot of unease in Germany and other nations at giving southern Europe the proverbial national credit card, however, both sides gain. On €1.5tn of issued bonds, the creditor nations would benefit to the tune of €12bn per year and the debtor nations would also benefit by at least the same amount (probably more given the increase in yields were they to add that kind of debt onto their own balance sheets).
Treatment for my Parkinson's is on hold during coronavirus crisis and it is tough, says Shaun Udal
Former England spinner explains how coronavirus pandemic is making his and other Parkinson's disease sufferers' lives more painful
Shaun Udal has to stop talking every few minutes to take a sip of water. He apologises for having to pause and for the fact it is hard to hear him speak because his voice is weak.
Udal is fighting Parkinson’s disease, which was diagnosed almost exactly 12 months ago a few days before his 50th birthday. Now a year later, he is still coming to terms with his new life and dealing with the added complication of handling the coronavirus shutdown which has left him in pain because he is unable to access his treatment.
Before the pandemic, Udal had found some relief from his symptoms through massage therapy. His old Hampshire colleague, David Gower recommended a therapist in Romsey, Sue Mills, who had a reputation for alleviating Parkinson’s symptoms through a unique application of deep tissue massage to reactivate muscles shutdown by the disease.
Combined with his drug therapy, the massage sessions, available through the NHS, give Udal relief from the debilitating symptoms of Parkinson’s but physio practises are closed now and he is paying the price. His is also managing director of a cotton graphics clothing company which is shutdown at the moment too adding to his concerns.
There is a lot of publicity and advice for those with underlying health conditions put in danger by the coronavirus pandemic, but for someone like Udal the challenge is different. Parkinson’s is not respiratory disease and he is in no more danger form the virus as any other healthy person of his age but the difference is how it restricts access to treatment which could lead to longer terms problems.
“When I don’t have treatment after a week my speech is slurred, my foot drags and my right side is in pain. I had never experienced pain like I did with it yesterday. It was horrible. I have doubled up on painkillers now and that is helping a bit but that is not a long term answer.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2020/04/10/treatment-parkinsons-hold-coronavirus-crisis-tough-saysshaun/
Quite a few of this 0.6% are people with existing co-morbidities, so this death rate probably exaggerates the number of excess deaths.
That being said... 0.6% of 70 million is still a large number. (Albeit I suspect we will find that people with certain genetic markers are unlikely to get the disease, so the maximum who will get it is probably unlikely to exceed 60%.)
So the question becomes how we improve treatments and minimse spread.
Trying to weave your way through this without going full on Jezza style socialism is very tricky, when the whole system has been driven to a place where you build it or source it in whichever location that can do it the cheapest and ship it 1,000 of miles around the world to the target market.
And us the consumer, we have become used to things becoming cheaper and cheaper, and having a totally disposal society.
I already stated some days ago that the focus right now must be on providing liquidity to sustain consumption, just to keep the show on the road, but that, once the dust has settled and the rebuild must begin, the focus may change and a further mutualisation of debt for genuine investment, in whichever actual form, may be the correct move.
When do we scrap the NHS and copy the German system?
Standards eh?
Perhaps what you should have asked is 'when do we fund the NHS at German levels'?
(2017 figures: UK spent £2,989 per person on healthcare, Germany spent £4,432)
"US government suspends all research involving bats out of concern that humans could pass coronavirus on and make the pandemic harder to contain"
Johnson is now well enough to do sudoku puzzles and watch the odd film. In tomorrow’s update we hear whether he went for the fish or meat main course !
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29
Which 'odd film' did he watch, I wonder?
Night all.
Keep this in mind the next time you are about to repeat a rumour or spread gossip.
In ancient Greece (469 - 399 BC), Socrates was widely lauded for his wisdom.
One day an acquaintance ran up to him excitedly and said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard about Diogenes?"
"Wait a moment," Socrates replied, "Before you tell me I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."
'Triple filter?" asked the acquaintance.
"That's right," Socrates continued, "Before you talk to me about Diogenes let's take a moment to filter what you're going to say. The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"
"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it."
"All right," said Socrates, "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about Diogenes something good?"
"No, on the contrary..."
"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something about Diogenes that may be bad, even though you're not certain it's true?"
The man shrugged, a little embarrassed. Socrates continued, "You may still pass the test though, because there is a third filter, the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about Diogenes going to be useful to me?"
"No, not really."
"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither True nor Good nor even Useful, why tell it to me or anyone at all?"
The man was bewildered and ashamed. This is an example of why Socrates was a great philosopher and held in such high esteem.
It also explains why Socrates never found out that Diogenes was shagging his wife
"However, it is understood that Britons will be asked to consider whether social interactions - such as going to an office or visiting relatives - are necessary as part of a plan to live with the virus for many months, or even years. It is hoped that a plan to encourage social distancing to become voluntary will help a second wave emerging."
Insane.
But the nation needs to consider what it values most: lower taxes and the opportunitiy to buy more 'stuff' and push up house prices, or better health and social care services.
This crisis has punctured the mantra about private sector involvement
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209347/UK-live-restrictions-coronavirus-vaccine-developed-say-officials.html
Its like the media never read the Imperial paper...
My Swedish friends always think it is slightly odd that a lot of media commentators here hold up the high taxation social democratic model as what we should aim for, without mentioning that there is loads of private involvement in providing public services. Most Swedes don't care who provides it, it is about is it any good and is it paid for out of their taxes.
That is one odd film.....
There will be a growing number of non-COVID COVID-caused medical deaths the longer the lock down goes on.
Money is important, but so is a decent set of priorities
traplure tonight. Smart looking moths. They hibernate in tunnels over winter.Odd story from BBC donating ventilators from Holby City to UWE field hosptial.
Takes set realism to a new height.
I would suggest that has been superceded by the all round cooperation for covid with lots of lessons learnt and pointing a way to the future for the NHS
My wife and I discussed health issues early on in this pandemic and both agreed we would not be attending hospital unless we felt we had no option.
Nothing in the lock down here would stop us going to seek medical attention if needed as I understand it
Presumably you'd be fine with a properly funded NHS if they just dropped these roles?
The Creep versus The Crud
People are happy to do this for while, but not if they think their politicians are taking the piss and using this as an excuse to take away freedoms, which some police forces epecially seem all too keen to do.
He says shear testing capacity isn't really the key and "test, test, test" is far too simplistic approach. Reactive testing of people complaining of symptoms is of limited use.
South Korea has it best, because they have a unified system, where they are extremely adept at working out who to test next and speed of results. Not just simple contact tracing, but working out where to look next.
For days the message has been stay at home this Easter, the weather will be great, we know its a nightmare but you must sacrifice and grit your teeth and stay at home.
Tonight it seems the message has been allowed to be: this will go on for a year.
What do the human behaviour modellers think might be the response to that?
80 plus - no intensive care
60 plus and "significant failure in 1 or more organ systems - no intensive care
Plus plenty of rumblings that they might need to change course re social distancing
Money goes further if spent on the most important things does it not?