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  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Another grim day in France - 1,120 deaths today according to Worldometer after 1,355 yesterday.

    I thought yesterday's was very high because it included som previously excluded non-hospital C-19 deaths. Does the same apply today?

    Not all countries are reporting deaths in care homes . This is the hidden disaster which some don’t want to own upto . And they’re not daily totals but have been compiled over several weeks . The UK hasn’t reported care home deaths only added on those who died at home .
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    ABZ said:

    Another grim day in France - 1,120 deaths today according to Worldometer after 1,355 yesterday.

    I thought yesterday's was very high because it included som previously excluded non-hospital C-19 deaths. Does the same apply today?

    Yes. It's the residue. Deaths today in hospitals was ~600.
    Thanks for this.

    So even if the FT is excluding non-hospital deaths, why is it showing a number well under 500 for France?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709

    Andy_JS said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    If this is true I don't know what the consequences might be.
    I want to see credible sources confirming this first before I believe it.

    But it should be obvious that China has a massive national interest in a huge disinformation campaign here. And that's before you get onto their cultural obsession in government and business of saving face.
    It's perhaps significant that the link to the Wuhan food market was the official line at the same time as they were arresting people for spreading rumours.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Foxy said:

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:
    US and Spain and France already are in terms of increase in cases and deaths, per capita Sweden and the Netherlands will be too

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Great. We’re only going to be in the top 5 in the western world.
    About right given we are the 5th largest economy in the western world and China is covering up its figures
    Don't start that again... :s
    Absolutely - not sure we need more of that! Regarding the exit strategy, which is where the government will really earn their corn, have you heard any whispers? Or is the goal to just get through the next week or two?

    Realistically, I think we will not get the virus to zero anywhere, but can control its spread (i.e., no hard lockdown) with much higher throughput testing, smart contact tracing and hopefully a better understanding of how to treat patients who do get infected. Are the medics in the NHS already getting more insight on this last front? For example, when to give oxygen / drugs - or is that still too soon?
    No, I don't have any knowledge of the next steps after the peak, but certainly testing and contact tracing are going to be key. Hancock is an App enthusiast so I suspect something like the Korean App.

    I hear a lot of pessimism about treatment. All sorts of things are tried out of desperation, but people keep on dying. We have no way of controlling this apart from century old public health measures.

    In time I think convalescent serum, and synthetic antibodies will be the best bet until we get a vaccine. In the meantime...
    It’s being reported that Singapore are abandoning contact tracing as they’ve started to lose control. It’s bought them extra weeks but it isn’t a long term answer. Will Korea be more successful? It only takes a small failure for it to spiral.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Counting the Nightingale?

    The problem of capacity in ICU is that people are not being discharged at the rate that they are arriving, and they need ventilating for weeks. Those beds are going to fill fast.
    Yes, counting the Nightingale. Admissions for covid were down today, maybe a blip
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Andy_JS said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    If this is true I don't know what the consequences might be.
    I want to see credible sources confirming this first before I believe it.

    But it should be obvious that China has a massive national interest in a huge disinformation campaign here. And that's before you get onto their cultural obsession in government and business of saving face.
    It's perhaps significant that the link to the Wuhan food market was the official line at the same time as they were arresting people for spreading rumours.
    Possibly.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    eadric said:
    I don’t think Italy are even on course for a worse than average year for mortality
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    isam said:

    eadric said:
    I don’t think Italy are even on course for a worse than average year for mortality
    Yeah. It is all a fuss about nothing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    GIN1138 said:

    Who's the sensible lady in an orange shawl at Trump's presser?

    Dr. Deborah Birx

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-dr-deborah-birx-hiv-aids
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Foxy said:

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:
    US and Spain and France already are in terms of increase in cases and deaths, per capita Sweden and the Netherlands will be too

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Great. We’re only going to be in the top 5 in the western world.
    About right given we are the 5th largest economy in the western world and China is covering up its figures
    Don't start that again... :s
    Absolutely - not sure we need more of that! Regarding the exit strategy, which is where the government will really earn their corn, have you heard any whispers? Or is the goal to just get through the next week or two?

    Realistically, I think we will not get the virus to zero anywhere, but can control its spread (i.e., no hard lockdown) with much higher throughput testing, smart contact tracing and hopefully a better understanding of how to treat patients who do get infected. Are the medics in the NHS already getting more insight on this last front? For example, when to give oxygen / drugs - or is that still too soon?
    No, I don't have any knowledge of the next steps after the peak, but certainly testing and contact tracing are going to be key. Hancock is an App enthusiast so I suspect something like the Korean App.

    I hear a lot of pessimism about treatment. All sorts of things are tried out of desperation, but people keep on dying. We have no way of controlling this apart from century old public health measures.

    In time I think convalescent serum, and synthetic antibodies will be the best bet until we get a vaccine. In the meantime...
    I think an App like model - together with rapid testing will make a big difference (cf that paper from Oxford which really shows you can keep numbers under control).

    Do you not hold out any hope for the antiviral therapies then? There's so many trials going on at present... hard to keep up!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Curious factoid. A friend is responsible for w large website. Traffic dipped a couple of weeks ago in the West, but has subsequently recovered substantially, even in Italy. In China it continues to be substantially lower. Which is curious considering China is back to normal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    GIN1138 said:

    Who's the sensible lady in an orange shawl at Trump's presser?

    Dr. Deborah Birx

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-dr-deborah-birx-hiv-aids
    Thanks. Amazing to watch someone sensible at a Trump presser...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    eadric said:
    I don’t think Italy are even on course for a worse than average year for mortality
    Yeah. It is all a fuss about nothing.
    I’m not saying that, but I think it is true that the mortality rate in Italy is lower than a normal year
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    eadric said:
    I don’t think Italy are even on course for a worse than average year for mortality
    Yeah. It is all a fuss about nothing.
    I’m not saying that, but I think it is true that the mortality rate in Italy is lower than a normal year
    Maybe for most of us all we really need is hot broth then
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Who's the sensible lady in an orange shawl at Trump's presser?

    Dr. Deborah Birx

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-dr-deborah-birx-hiv-aids
    Thanks. Amazing to watch someone sensible at a Trump presser...
    Truly the only grown-up in the room.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    eadric said:
    I don’t think Italy are even on course for a worse than average year for mortality
    Yeah. It is all a fuss about nothing.
    I’m not saying that, but I think it is true that the mortality rate in Italy is lower than a normal year
    I dont think it will be at all, but that is another pointless argument like the China one.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    isam said:
    Wife reports her hospital is half empty. Even her Coronavirus ward has empty beds.
  • HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    eadric said:
    I don’t think Italy are even on course for a worse than average year for mortality
    Yeah. It is all a fuss about nothing.
    I’m not saying that, but I think it is true that the mortality rate in Italy is lower than a normal year
    Maybe for most of us all we really need is hot broth then
    Lots.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.
    1st April


    2nd April


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Fenman said:

    isam said:
    Wife reports her hospital is half empty. Even her Coronavirus ward has empty beds.
    It depends on where you are in the country. We have plenty of beds in Leics, because we have prepared too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Who's the sensible lady in an orange shawl at Trump's presser?

    Dr. Deborah Birx

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-dr-deborah-birx-hiv-aids
    Thanks. Amazing to watch someone sensible at a Trump presser...
    Truly the only grown-up in the room.
    Birx and (particularly) Fauci are class acts.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    geoffw said:

    Whether Sweden's heterodoxy succeeds, they deserve respect for following their own path in an open and reasoned way. Whether or not they succeed they will have given all of us a lesson for the future.

    Do you think that Iran or the USA deserve respect for "following their own path"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    A good thread explaining why you need a very accurate antibody test for mass testing.
    https://twitter.com/zbinney_NFLinj/status/1245789672833417217
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.
    1st April


    2nd April

    So are they recording suspect cases or confirmed?
    Bearing in mind the slides were prepared today, the swab results for patients on the 2nd cannot be back. They are taking 3 days in my unit, and we do not have enough swab capacity to re-test the negatives.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Iain Dale's recommended Shadow Cabinet for Starmer if he wins tomorrow

    Leader: Sir Keir Starmer
    Deputy Leader: Angela Rayner
    Home Office: Yvette Cooper
    Chancellor: Rachel Reeves
    Foreign: Emily Thornberry
    Transport: Andy McDonald
    Justice: Lucy Powell
    Work and Pensions: Jess Phillips
    Environment: Lisa Nandy
    Business: Angela Eagle
    Education: Stella Creasy
    Health: Rosena Allin-Khan
    DCMS: Tracey Brabin
    Women & Equalities: Debbie Abrahams
    International Development: Matthew Pennycook
    Leader of the House: Meg Hillier
    Leader of the Lords: Angela Smith
    Communities & Local Govt: Liz Kendall
    Cabinet Office: Andrew Gwynne
    Defence: Jonathan Ashworth
    Party Chair: Stephen Kinnock
    International Trade: Seema Malhotra
    Northern Ireland: Louise Haigh
    Employment: Anneliese Dodds
    Wales: Stephen Doughty
    Scotland: Ian Murray
    Chief Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds
    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/04/iain-dale-which-starmer-will-we-get-as-labours-new-leader-this-weekend-radical-starmer-or-safety-first-starmer.html

    No bex? And you want to be taken seriously as a political journalist lain
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    A good thread explaining why you need a very accurate antibody test for mass testing.
    https://twitter.com/zbinney_NFLinj/status/1245789672833417217

    It is indeed an important point in that thread.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.
    1st April


    2nd April

    So are they recording suspect cases or confirmed?
    Bearing in mind the slides were prepared today, the swab results for patients on the 2and cannot be back. They are taking 3 days in my unit, and we do not have enough swab capacity to re-test the negatives.
    This is from the government to accompany the days press conferences. It doesn’t seem as if previous days numbers are altered later on to me, looking at the graphs. So looks like admissions were down today

    See for yourself, maybe I’m reading it wrong

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

    It is a good study, but was based on diseased individuals rather than healthy ones. You cannot extrapolate to a different population from it.

    There is also the point that masks are in short supply, and need to be available first to care homes etc.



  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

    In terms of protecting a wearer? WHO’s saying that?

    Snood or scarf could do the same in terms of protecting those around you.

    Whatever route you go down There needs to be awareness about being careful with it. In fact there needs to be better awareness on mobile phones, watches, rings and bling when returning to your house.

    And to always flush toilets with the lid down, previous user may have left something in there for you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
    Oh sorry, I see. Yes, the crematorium round the corner to me is building a temporary mortuary. A bit freaky

    https://southessexcrematorium.co.uk/coronavirus-covid-19-updates-to-our-service/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    HYUFD said:

    Iain Dale's recommended Shadow Cabinet for Starmer if he wins tomorrow

    Leader: Sir Keir Starmer
    Deputy Leader: Angela Rayner
    Home Office: Yvette Cooper
    Chancellor: Rachel Reeves
    Foreign: Emily Thornberry
    Transport: Andy McDonald
    Justice: Lucy Powell
    Work and Pensions: Jess Phillips
    Environment: Lisa Nandy
    Business: Angela Eagle
    Education: Stella Creasy
    Health: Rosena Allin-Khan
    DCMS: Tracey Brabin
    Women & Equalities: Debbie Abrahams
    International Development: Matthew Pennycook
    Leader of the House: Meg Hillier
    Leader of the Lords: Angela Smith
    Communities & Local Govt: Liz Kendall
    Cabinet Office: Andrew Gwynne
    Defence: Jonathan Ashworth
    Party Chair: Stephen Kinnock
    International Trade: Seema Malhotra
    Northern Ireland: Louise Haigh
    Employment: Anneliese Dodds
    Wales: Stephen Doughty
    Scotland: Ian Murray
    Chief Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds
    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/04/iain-dale-which-starmer-will-we-get-as-labours-new-leader-this-weekend-radical-starmer-or-safety-first-starmer.html

    Good selections. But maybe Jess as Party Chair? DWP should be Stella.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    egg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

    In terms of protecting a wearer? WHO’s saying that?

    Snood or scarf could do the same in terms of protecting those around you.

    Whatever route you go down There needs to be awareness about being careful with it. In fact there needs to be better awareness on mobile phones, watches, rings and bling when returning to your house.

    And to always flush toilets with the lid down, previous user may have left covid 19 in there for you.
    The number of folk washing their hands or wearing gloves, then handling their never clean touchscreen phones...

    I use a Samsung SE10 , and clean it regularly with alcohol wipes. It doesn't seem to affect it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    HYUFD said:

    Iain Dale's recommended Shadow Cabinet for Starmer if he wins tomorrow

    Leader: Sir Keir Starmer
    Deputy Leader: Angela Rayner
    Home Office: Yvette Cooper
    Chancellor: Rachel Reeves
    Foreign: Emily Thornberry
    Transport: Andy McDonald
    Justice: Lucy Powell
    Work and Pensions: Jess Phillips
    Environment: Lisa Nandy
    Business: Angela Eagle
    Education: Stella Creasy
    Health: Rosena Allin-Khan
    DCMS: Tracey Brabin
    Women & Equalities: Debbie Abrahams
    International Development: Matthew Pennycook
    Leader of the House: Meg Hillier
    Leader of the Lords: Angela Smith
    Communities & Local Govt: Liz Kendall
    Cabinet Office: Andrew Gwynne
    Defence: Jonathan Ashworth
    Party Chair: Stephen Kinnock
    International Trade: Seema Malhotra
    Northern Ireland: Louise Haigh
    Employment: Anneliese Dodds
    Wales: Stephen Doughty
    Scotland: Ian Murray
    Chief Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds
    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/04/iain-dale-which-starmer-will-we-get-as-labours-new-leader-this-weekend-radical-starmer-or-safety-first-starmer.html

    Somewhere there is a William Hague article on building Shadow Cabinets to be balanced across different wings of the party (and possibly different regions as well). I don't think Iain Dale has achieved this balance. Boris has been clearer on purging dissentors, certainly than Corbyn ever was (although they largely self-purged). Mrs Thatcher's early team included a great many of her opponents. Dale offers a list of names which appears more or less arbitrary.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious factoid. A friend is responsible for w large website. Traffic dipped a couple of weeks ago in the West, but has subsequently recovered substantially, even in Italy. In China it continues to be substantially lower. Which is curious considering China is back to normal.

    There is a related rumour - and just a rumour - that Chinese mobile operators have lost 15m customers in the last few months, above and beyond the usual churn.

    Why? Probably just coronavirus confusion. But if you are a massive grassy knollite and you hate xi jinping, it means 15m Chinese have died, unexpectedly.

    Take your pick!
    Isn't it possible the fatality rate in China is about the same as it is in Italy, Spain, France, etc? So instead of 3,000 deaths that would be... well, someone else can work it out, but it's a lot of people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Iain Dale's recommended Shadow Cabinet for Starmer if he wins tomorrow

    Leader: Sir Keir Starmer
    Deputy Leader: Angela Rayner
    Home Office: Yvette Cooper
    Chancellor: Rachel Reeves
    Foreign: Emily Thornberry
    Transport: Andy McDonald
    Justice: Lucy Powell
    Work and Pensions: Jess Phillips
    Environment: Lisa Nandy
    Business: Angela Eagle
    Education: Stella Creasy
    Health: Rosena Allin-Khan
    DCMS: Tracey Brabin
    Women & Equalities: Debbie Abrahams
    International Development: Matthew Pennycook
    Leader of the House: Meg Hillier
    Leader of the Lords: Angela Smith
    Communities & Local Govt: Liz Kendall
    Cabinet Office: Andrew Gwynne
    Defence: Jonathan Ashworth
    Party Chair: Stephen Kinnock
    International Trade: Seema Malhotra
    Northern Ireland: Louise Haigh
    Employment: Anneliese Dodds
    Wales: Stephen Doughty
    Scotland: Ian Murray
    Chief Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds
    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/04/iain-dale-which-starmer-will-we-get-as-labours-new-leader-this-weekend-radical-starmer-or-safety-first-starmer.html

    No bex? And you want to be taken seriously as a political journalist lain
    And Angela Eagle for Business? Don't you want to differentiate from the Fuck Business Tories then, Labour?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
    Imo there should be greater concern for the under equipped care homes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious factoid. A friend is responsible for w large website. Traffic dipped a couple of weeks ago in the West, but has subsequently recovered substantially, even in Italy. In China it continues to be substantially lower. Which is curious considering China is back to normal.

    There is a related rumour - and just a rumour - that Chinese mobile operators have lost 15m customers in the last few months, above and beyond the usual churn.

    Why? Probably just coronavirus confusion. But if you are a massive grassy knollite and you hate xi jinping, it means 15m Chinese have died, unexpectedly.

    Take your pick!
    Isn't it possible the fatality rate in China is about the same as it is in Italy, Spain, France, etc? So instead of 3,000 deaths that would be... well, someone else can work it out, but it's a lot of people.
    If the 15m lost subscribers is true, it sounds more like an effect of the economic contraction. People who lose their jobs cancel their contracts.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
    Oh sorry, I see. Yes, the crematorium round the corner to me is building a temporary mortuary. A bit freaky

    https://southessexcrematorium.co.uk/coronavirus-covid-19-updates-to-our-service/
    If you have just been bereaved the first thing you will need to do is to register the death. If the death took place in Havering, registration is by appointment only.

    What kind of heartless company owns that place?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Just realised that FT graph is 7 day rolling average.
  • Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious factoid. A friend is responsible for w large website. Traffic dipped a couple of weeks ago in the West, but has subsequently recovered substantially, even in Italy. In China it continues to be substantially lower. Which is curious considering China is back to normal.

    There is a related rumour - and just a rumour - that Chinese mobile operators have lost 15m customers in the last few months, above and beyond the usual churn.

    Why? Probably just coronavirus confusion. But if you are a massive grassy knollite and you hate xi jinping, it means 15m Chinese have died, unexpectedly.

    Take your pick!
    Isn't it possible the fatality rate in China is about the same as it is in Italy, Spain, France, etc? So instead of 3,000 deaths that would be... well, someone else can work it out, but it's a lot of people.
    If the 15m lost subscribers is true, it sounds more like an effect of the economic contraction. People who lose their jobs cancel their contracts.
    Someone pointed out that there are 300m migrant workers in China. Many had several phones (for themselves and family at home) and canceled those they didn't need anymore.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Tim_B said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
    Oh sorry, I see. Yes, the crematorium round the corner to me is building a temporary mortuary. A bit freaky

    https://southessexcrematorium.co.uk/coronavirus-covid-19-updates-to-our-service/
    If you have just been bereaved the first thing you will need to do is to register the death. If the death took place in Havering, registration is by appointment only.

    What kind of heartless company owns that place?
    Isn't that just a statement of the Law?

    It is a large part of the work of the Patients Affairs Office at any hospital to guide the bereaved through the process. They generally handle it kindly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

    It is a good study, but was based on diseased individuals rather than healthy ones. You cannot extrapolate to a different population from it.

    There is also the point that masks are in short supply, and need to be available first to care homes etc.

    I appreciate those points.
    But this is an important result, as it pretty well settles at least one aspect of the argument.
    Some health authorities recommend that masks be worn by ill individuals to prevent onward transmission (source control)4,8. Surgical face masks were originally introduced to protect patients from wound infection and contamination from surgeons (the wearer) during surgical procedures, and were later adopted to protect healthcare workers against acquiring infection from their patients. However, most of the existing evidence on the filtering efficacy of face masks and respirators comes from in vitro experiments with nonbiological particles9,10, which may not be generalizable to infectious respiratory virus droplets. There is little information on the efficacy of face masks in filtering respiratory viruses and reducing viral release from an individual with respiratory infections8, and most research has focused on influenza...

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious factoid. A friend is responsible for w large website. Traffic dipped a couple of weeks ago in the West, but has subsequently recovered substantially, even in Italy. In China it continues to be substantially lower. Which is curious considering China is back to normal.

    There is a related rumour - and just a rumour - that Chinese mobile operators have lost 15m customers in the last few months, above and beyond the usual churn.

    Why? Probably just coronavirus confusion. But if you are a massive grassy knollite and you hate xi jinping, it means 15m Chinese have died, unexpectedly.

    Take your pick!
    Isn't it possible the fatality rate in China is about the same as it is in Italy, Spain, France, etc? So instead of 3,000 deaths that would be... well, someone else can work it out, but it's a lot of people.
    If the 15m lost subscribers is true, it sounds more like an effect of the economic contraction. People who lose their jobs cancel their contracts.
    Every adult in China has to have a phone to access services, but there are 1.6 billion cellphones contracts and 1.3 billion people, so clearly some have more than one. Those with a separate work phone may well have cancelled it during the lockdowns.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
    Oh sorry, I see. Yes, the crematorium round the corner to me is building a temporary mortuary. A bit freaky

    https://southessexcrematorium.co.uk/coronavirus-covid-19-updates-to-our-service/
    If you have just been bereaved the first thing you will need to do is to register the death. If the death took place in Havering, registration is by appointment only.

    What kind of heartless company owns that place?
    Isn't that just a statement of the Law?

    It is a large part of the work of the Patients Affairs Office at any hospital to guide the bereaved through the process. They generally handle it kindly.
    Here the hospital and the funeral director take care of it. The bereaved doesn't need to get involved in the administrivia. When I was living in England and my father died I had to both identify the body at the hospital morgue and then go register the death. I wasn't impressed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    Washington Times:

    "Chinese researchers isolated deadly bat coronaviruses near Wuhan animal market

    Chinese government researchers isolated more than 2,000 new viruses, including deadly bat coronaviruses, and carried out scientific work on them just three miles from a wild animal market identified as the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic."

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/china-researchers-isolated-bat-coronaviruses-near-/
  • anotherex_toryanotherex_tory Posts: 234
    edited April 2020
    So, as an introduction, I have been a lurker on this site for over 11 years and in fact it represents the one single source of information and gossip I have consistently accessed over that turbulent period. In fact it was this site which broke the Gordon Brown "bigotgate" story to me in 2010 demonstrating its worth perfectly.

    I am a mid 30's, non-degree educated, finance professional and despite my rather combative (but ultimately accurate), username in a past-life I was a Conservative party member who trod many a Croydon street and knocked on many a door canvassing for the first baron Croydon in 2017 - time well spent! Now I am without a a party or a real political identity as a pro-European conservative - so be it.

    Surprisingly though I am first motivated to directly comment on (rather than simply recommend), this site at this moment when the greatest damage to this country is really done through the unreasoning panic this entirely un-intimidating virus is causing. I am literally shocked and appalled that I am in a small minority who questions whether our rights are worth sacrificing at the alter a single scientific study has set up and whether the NHS is in fact a tail wagging the dog of the economy.

    I have seen a few commentators making allied points on this site and I feel an ineluctable pull to support them. Groupthink has taken over and panic reigns everywhere. The bottom line is this: poverty kills in all places and at all times. Our approach in the UK (shared widely as it is), will generate more misery and suffering than this hybrid corona virus ever will. My motivation now is that more people should be shouting this from the rooftops and despite all the controversy that has existed in the UK over the last decade this is the thing which really matters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.

    A question for tomorrows press conference. My *guess* is that they are using "hospital admissions" (literally that) for the data, diagnosis by symptoms.

    I really, really wish someone would ask my question about whether diagnosis by symptoms is more accurate than the current test, given the 75% accuracy that a number have talked about.



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    HYUFD said:

    Iain Dale's recommended Shadow Cabinet for Starmer if he wins tomorrow

    Leader: Sir Keir Starmer
    Deputy Leader: Angela Rayner
    Home Office: Yvette Cooper
    Chancellor: Rachel Reeves
    Foreign: Emily Thornberry
    Transport: Andy McDonald
    Justice: Lucy Powell
    Work and Pensions: Jess Phillips
    Environment: Lisa Nandy
    Business: Angela Eagle
    Education: Stella Creasy
    Health: Rosena Allin-Khan
    DCMS: Tracey Brabin
    Women & Equalities: Debbie Abrahams
    International Development: Matthew Pennycook
    Leader of the House: Meg Hillier
    Leader of the Lords: Angela Smith
    Communities & Local Govt: Liz Kendall
    Cabinet Office: Andrew Gwynne
    Defence: Jonathan Ashworth
    Party Chair: Stephen Kinnock
    International Trade: Seema Malhotra
    Northern Ireland: Louise Haigh
    Employment: Anneliese Dodds
    Wales: Stephen Doughty
    Scotland: Ian Murray
    Chief Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds
    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/04/iain-dale-which-starmer-will-we-get-as-labours-new-leader-this-weekend-radical-starmer-or-safety-first-starmer.html

    Somewhere there is a William Hague article on building Shadow Cabinets to be balanced across different wings of the party (and possibly different regions as well). I don't think Iain Dale has achieved this balance. Boris has been clearer on purging dissentors, certainly than Corbyn ever was (although they largely self-purged). Mrs Thatcher's early team included a great many of her opponents. Dale offers a list of names which appears more or less arbitrary.
    Is it possible to take Dale's Fantasy Shadow Cabinet seriously? Does he have any inside contacts in Labour?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Iain Dale's recommended Shadow Cabinet for Starmer if he wins tomorrow

    Leader: Sir Keir Starmer
    Deputy Leader: Angela Rayner
    Home Office: Yvette Cooper
    Chancellor: Rachel Reeves
    Foreign: Emily Thornberry
    Transport: Andy McDonald
    Justice: Lucy Powell
    Work and Pensions: Jess Phillips
    Environment: Lisa Nandy
    Business: Angela Eagle
    Education: Stella Creasy
    Health: Rosena Allin-Khan
    DCMS: Tracey Brabin
    Women & Equalities: Debbie Abrahams
    International Development: Matthew Pennycook
    Leader of the House: Meg Hillier
    Leader of the Lords: Angela Smith
    Communities & Local Govt: Liz Kendall
    Cabinet Office: Andrew Gwynne
    Defence: Jonathan Ashworth
    Party Chair: Stephen Kinnock
    International Trade: Seema Malhotra
    Northern Ireland: Louise Haigh
    Employment: Anneliese Dodds
    Wales: Stephen Doughty
    Scotland: Ian Murray
    Chief Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds
    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/04/iain-dale-which-starmer-will-we-get-as-labours-new-leader-this-weekend-radical-starmer-or-safety-first-starmer.html

    No bex? And you want to be taken seriously as a political journalist lain
    And Angela Eagle for Business? Don't you want to differentiate from the Fuck Business Tories then, Labour?
    I’m not disagreeing. But who do you suggest labour should appoint shadow for business?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    So, as an introduction, I have been a lurker on this site for over 11 years and in fact it represents the one single source of information and gossip I have consistently accessed over that turbulent period. In fact it was this site which broke the Gordon Brown "bigotgate" story to me in 2010 demonstrating its worth perfectly.

    I am a mid 30's, non-degree educated, finance professional and despite my rather combative (but ultimately accurate), username in a past-life I was a Conservative party member who trod many a Croydon street and knocked on many a door canvassing for the first baron Croydon in 2017 - time well spent! Now I am without a a party or a real political identity as a pro-European conservative - so be it.

    Surprisingly though I am first motivated to directly comment on (rather than simply recommend), this site at this moment when the greatest damage to this country is really done through the unreasoning panic this entirely un-intimidating virus is causing. I am literally shocked and appalled that I am in a small minority who questions whether our rights are worth sacrificing at the alter a single scientific study has set up and whether the NHS is in fact a tail wagging the dog of the economy.

    I have seen a few commentators making allied points on this site and I feel an ineluctable pull to support them. Groupthink has taken over and panic reigns everywhere. The bottom line is this: poverty kills in all places and at all times. Our approach in the UK (shared widely as it is), will generate more misery and suffering than this hybrid corona virus ever will. My motivation now is that more people should be shouting this from the rooftops and despite all the controversy that has existed in the UK over the last decade this is the thing which really matters.

    Welcome to the site.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    egg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

    In terms of protecting a wearer? WHO’s saying that?

    Snood or scarf could do the same in terms of protecting those around you.

    Whatever route you go down There needs to be awareness about being careful with it. In fact there needs to be better awareness on mobile phones, watches, rings and bling when returning to your house.

    And to always flush toilets with the lid down, previous user may have left covid 19 in there for you.
    The number of folk washing their hands or wearing gloves, then handling their never clean touchscreen phones...

    I use a Samsung SE10 , and clean it regularly with alcohol wipes. It doesn't seem to affect it.
    Come in, take them off straightaway, wash your hands, hit them with the alcohol wipe, wash your hands. It’s not part of people’s routines, I agree it needs more awareness to build that routine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Masks work.

    Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
    We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

    It is a good study, but was based on diseased individuals rather than healthy ones. You cannot extrapolate to a different population from it.

    There is also the point that masks are in short supply, and need to be available first to care homes etc.

    I appreciate those points.
    But this is an important result, as it pretty well settles at least one aspect of the argument.
    Some health authorities recommend that masks be worn by ill individuals to prevent onward transmission (source control)4,8. Surgical face masks were originally introduced to protect patients from wound infection and contamination from surgeons (the wearer) during surgical procedures, and were later adopted to protect healthcare workers against acquiring infection from their patients. However, most of the existing evidence on the filtering efficacy of face masks and respirators comes from in vitro experiments with nonbiological particles9,10, which may not be generalizable to infectious respiratory virus droplets. There is little information on the efficacy of face masks in filtering respiratory viruses and reducing viral release from an individual with respiratory infections8, and most research has focused on influenza...

    Yes, Surgeons wear masks to protect their patients rather than themselves, though there is little evidence that it actually makes any difference:

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01410
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious factoid. A friend is responsible for w large website. Traffic dipped a couple of weeks ago in the West, but has subsequently recovered substantially, even in Italy. In China it continues to be substantially lower. Which is curious considering China is back to normal.

    There is a related rumour - and just a rumour - that Chinese mobile operators have lost 15m customers in the last few months, above and beyond the usual churn.

    Why? Probably just coronavirus confusion. But if you are a massive grassy knollite and you hate xi jinping, it means 15m Chinese have died, unexpectedly.

    Take your pick!
    Isn't it possible the fatality rate in China is about the same as it is in Italy, Spain, France, etc? So instead of 3,000 deaths that would be... well, someone else can work it out, but it's a lot of people.
    If the 15m lost subscribers is true, it sounds more like an effect of the economic contraction. People who lose their jobs cancel their contracts.
    Someone pointed out that there are 300m migrant workers in China. Many had several phones (for themselves and family at home) and canceled those they didn't need anymore.
    China also has (or had last time I was there) a weird in country roaming system if you got a phone which was only usable in one state it was cheaper monthly than one which worked everywhere. Loads of people had two phones, one for in state and one for out of state. It may have changed since then though.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.

    A question for tomorrows press conference. My *guess* is that they are using "hospital admissions" (literally that) for the data, diagnosis by symptoms.

    I really, really wish someone would ask my question about whether diagnosis by symptoms is more accurate than the current test, given the 75% accuracy that a number have talked about.



    What about curved balls getting over looked. Black Death travelled the world on fleas on rats? What about fleas, ticks?

    Fly’s. It literally flies in through the window and gets on your kitchen counter.
    I’m self isolating well says someone eating a sandwich.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    edited April 2020
    De-lurking for an instant to make a couple of points.
    1 It is nice to see Taiwan being the good guys for a change. Lovely people and a vision of what China could have been. Open, tolerant Liberal democracy. Which is technologically advanced, capitalist and a democracy.. Yet still, indisputably Chinese.
    If.we ever get through this support them. Do business there. Go on holiday. You won't regret it
    2 It's far too soon to assign blame. Thousands of decisions have been taken in short order. Some of them will have been right some wrong. All of them will have been taken under extreme pressure, and without the benefits of scrutiny, discussion or reflection. It will come out in the wash whenever that is. And that is what this government will be judged on. Fortunately we have one with a solid majority for the first time in 10 years. In 4 and a bit years we can pass considered judgement.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.

    A question for tomorrows press conference. My *guess* is that they are using "hospital admissions" (literally that) for the data, diagnosis by symptoms.

    I really, really wish someone would ask my question about whether diagnosis by symptoms is more accurate than the current test, given the 75% accuracy that a number have talked about.



    On our daily COVID19 status report, we had 122 confirmed inpatients and 94 suspected (awaiting swabs) at midnight on 1/4/20.

    I suspect that is fairly typical, so roughly 21 per 100 000 population. Leicester is a little below the English numbers though.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    egg said:

    isam said:

    Lockdown with rising temperatures leading to greater consumption of refreshing cold drinks. What could go wrong? Apart from rising domestic violence?

    There are also whispers that capacity strain is moving from the NHS to funeral directors.

    What capacity strain? There are over 5,000 empty critical beds in London
    Yes so as I said the new concern is how funeral directors cope with the rising death toll.
    Imo there should be greater concern for the under equipped care homes.
    Care homes. Many have a small supply of masks, and that’s all their PPE, so managers may say to nursing and care staff only use them when we know we have a case. But when will that get confirmed? Money has been tight in the industry, can we be sure even the thermometers are working well enough.

    A key part of the issue here is the second word in care home. It’s peoples home, not an isolation ward. Individuals isolating at home have more control over people coming out and in and who they have contact with, care homes need staff coming in and out in order to keep it going.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    On China:

    1) They lied, and covered up with violence*, the emergence of the virus
    2) They lied, and covered up with violence, the existence of human to human transmission.
    3) They are still using violence against doctors working in the field, in China.
    4) The WHO reported what they were told.
    5) What they were told depended on how brave the Chinese people they met were. The doctors etc in China *knew* that the people who didn't keep their mouths shut were vanishing.
    6) The WHO deliberately and exactly refused to deal with Taiwan, their warnings etc. They tried the position that Taiwan dd not exists.
    7) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak - A classic coverup by a morally bankrupt regime. One interesting thing about this one. The visitors were carefully given a story and they followed it. In fact, one academic led a campaign over the years to smear the reputation of anyone who said that the Soviet story was wrong.

    During the Cold War, various international institutions tried the We-Just-Accept-What-Moscow-Tells-Us approach - claiming that to do other would be to take a side. This never worked out to their credit.

    * Disappearing people involves violence.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Broadband engineers threatened due to 5G coronavirus conspiracies

    EE suspects telephone mast engulfed by fire in Birmingham was an arson attack as celebrities claim Covid-19 caused by new network

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/apr/03/broadband-engineers-threatened-due-to-5g-coronavirus-conspiracies

    Not that social media misinformation can affect elections (where's the report, Boris?).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.

    A question for tomorrows press conference. My *guess* is that they are using "hospital admissions" (literally that) for the data, diagnosis by symptoms.

    I really, really wish someone would ask my question about whether diagnosis by symptoms is more accurate than the current test, given the 75% accuracy that a number have talked about.



    On our daily COVID19 status report, we had 122 confirmed inpatients and 94 suspected (awaiting swabs) at midnight on 1/4/20.

    I suspect that is fairly typical, so roughly 21 per 100 000 population. Leicester is a little below the English numbers though.
    As a matter of interest, is admission for COVID19, by diagnosis on admission, a number that is reported by the hospital?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    dixiedean said:

    De-lurking for an instant to make a couple of points.
    1 It is nice to see Taiwan being the good guys for a change. Lovely people and a vision of what China could have been. Open, tolerant Liberal democracy. Which is technologically advanced, capitalist and a democracy.. Yet still, indisputably Chinese.
    If.we ever get through this support them. Do business there. Go on holiday. You won't regret it
    2 It's far too soon to assign blame. Thousands of decisions have been taken in short order. Some of them will have been right some wrong. All of them will have been taken under extreme pressure, and without the benefits of scrutiny, discussion or reflection. It will come out in the wash whenever that is. And that is what this government will be judged on. Fortunately we have one with a solid majority for the first time in 10 years. In 4 and a bit years we can pass considered judgement.


    1) Yes, the whole "Liberal Democracy is not for ethnic group x" is a racist trope that has been playing since I can remember. Used to be a standard on the Left in this country about Africa. Except for South Africa, obviously.

    2) Yes, the landscape is changing very, very fast. Until we get an effective vaccine, this thing not be over. 2 years - including time to actually get it out there??
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:
    I would be sceptical of data for 2/4/20. The patients admitted then will not have had their swab results yet, so labelled as suspect rather than confirmed cases. That might are artefactually cause a down tick over the final couple of days whenever this is plotted.

    A question for tomorrows press conference. My *guess* is that they are using "hospital admissions" (literally that) for the data, diagnosis by symptoms.

    I really, really wish someone would ask my question about whether diagnosis by symptoms is more accurate than the current test, given the 75% accuracy that a number have talked about.



    On our daily COVID19 status report, we had 122 confirmed inpatients and 94 suspected (awaiting swabs) at midnight on 1/4/20.

    I suspect that is fairly typical, so roughly 21 per 100 000 population. Leicester is a little below the English numbers though.
    As a matter of interest, is admission for COVID19, by diagnosis on admission, a number that is reported by the hospital?
    No, they are only reported as such when the swabs are back, and with rare exceptions, swabs are only done on admission. A typical case is then labelled as suspect for a few days before becoming confirmed or not.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    On China:

    1) They lied, and covered up with violence*, the emergence of the virus
    2) They lied, and covered up with violence, the existence of human to human transmission.
    3) They are still using violence against doctors working in the field, in China.
    4) The WHO reported what they were told.
    5) What they were told depended on how brave the Chinese people they met were. The doctors etc in China *knew* that the people who didn't keep their mouths shut were vanishing.
    6) The WHO deliberately and exactly refused to deal with Taiwan, their warnings etc. They tried the position that Taiwan dd not exists.
    7) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak - A classic coverup by a morally bankrupt regime. One interesting thing about this one. The visitors were carefully given a story and they followed it. In fact, one academic led a campaign over the years to smear the reputation of anyone who said that the Soviet story was wrong.

    During the Cold War, various international institutions tried the We-Just-Accept-What-Moscow-Tells-Us approach - claiming that to do other would be to take a side. This never worked out to their credit.

    * Disappearing people involves violence.

    I just finished reading that article about Sverdlovsk, and then came here to see it mentioned. Interesting to note that the strain that was being used was isolated from anthrax that came from another leak.
    I don't know what has happened in China but there's ample evidence from the past that accidents involving biological, chemical, and nuclear material that should never happen do happen again and again.

  • Labour party leader results are out. He won by just 179 votes!

    Full details here
    https://www.labour.ie/news/2020/04/03/labour-party-leadership-election-results/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    So, as an introduction, I have been a lurker on this site for over 11 years and in fact it represents the one single source of information and gossip I have consistently accessed over that turbulent period. In fact it was this site which broke the Gordon Brown "bigotgate" story to me in 2010 demonstrating its worth perfectly.

    I am a mid 30's, non-degree educated, finance professional and despite my rather combative (but ultimately accurate), username in a past-life I was a Conservative party member who trod many a Croydon street and knocked on many a door canvassing for the first baron Croydon in 2017 - time well spent! Now I am without a a party or a real political identity as a pro-European conservative - so be it.

    Surprisingly though I am first motivated to directly comment on (rather than simply recommend), this site at this moment when the greatest damage to this country is really done through the unreasoning panic this entirely un-intimidating virus is causing. I am literally shocked and appalled that I am in a small minority who questions whether our rights are worth sacrificing at the alter a single scientific study has set up and whether the NHS is in fact a tail wagging the dog of the economy.

    I have seen a few commentators making allied points on this site and I feel an ineluctable pull to support them. Groupthink has taken over and panic reigns everywhere. The bottom line is this: poverty kills in all places and at all times. Our approach in the UK (shared widely as it is), will generate more misery and suffering than this hybrid corona virus ever will. My motivation now is that more people should be shouting this from the rooftops and despite all the controversy that has existed in the UK over the last decade this is the thing which really matters.

    Greetings ex-lurker.

    Certainly economic performance is a good predictor of various aspects of health. The Marmot reports, particularly the 2010 original are good reading on these.

    The choice is not lockdown vs normality though, it is lockdown vs economy during an out of control pandemic. It is moot which is worse for the economy.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    glw said:

    On China:

    1) They lied, and covered up with violence*, the emergence of the virus
    2) They lied, and covered up with violence, the existence of human to human transmission.
    3) They are still using violence against doctors working in the field, in China.
    4) The WHO reported what they were told.
    5) What they were told depended on how brave the Chinese people they met were. The doctors etc in China *knew* that the people who didn't keep their mouths shut were vanishing.
    6) The WHO deliberately and exactly refused to deal with Taiwan, their warnings etc. They tried the position that Taiwan dd not exists.
    7) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak - A classic coverup by a morally bankrupt regime. One interesting thing about this one. The visitors were carefully given a story and they followed it. In fact, one academic led a campaign over the years to smear the reputation of anyone who said that the Soviet story was wrong.

    During the Cold War, various international institutions tried the We-Just-Accept-What-Moscow-Tells-Us approach - claiming that to do other would be to take a side. This never worked out to their credit.

    * Disappearing people involves violence.

    I just finished reading that article about Sverdlovsk, and then came here to see it mentioned. Interesting to note that the strain that was being used was isolated from anthrax that came from another leak.
    I don't know what has happened in China but there's ample evidence from the past that accidents involving biological, chemical, and nuclear material that should never happen do happen again and again.

    The basic lessons of this are -

    1) Dictatorial systems lie reflexively
    2) They enforce the narrative with murder
    3) People in the reporting chain in such systems lie to their superiors
    4) 1-3 effects everything that such systems do.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    These subplots just get better and better.
    https://twitter.com/jallepap/status/1245912262344204288?s=19
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    On Boris Johnson's condition:

    According to sources, he has spent a lot of time sleeping as extreme exhaustion is one of the key features of the illness. One says: 'It has hit him hard, really slammed him but it's in his nature to put the bravest face on it.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8186043/Coronavirus-hit-Boris-Johnson-hard-theyve-barricaded-doors-No-10-writes-RICHARD-KAY.html
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited April 2020

    On Boris Johnson's condition:

    According to sources, he has spent a lot of time sleeping as extreme exhaustion is one of the key features of the illness. One says: 'It has hit him hard, really slammed him but it's in his nature to put the bravest face on it.'

    Weekend at Bernies.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    HYUFD said:

    various poll tweets

    Kind of weird to be polling Trump against a Generic Dem when we already know who the Dem nominee is.
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