Fleeing into dollars is like being in the light brigade and deciding that the best course of action isn't to stop, but lead the charge into the valley of unpleasant outcomes.
@rcs1000 When would you expect to see the number of new cases in Italy start to level off? I'd have hoped to see it the next few days I think. Assuming they have a 24-48h turnaround for new tests, the new cases today would have been sampled yesterday or Monday (i.e., 7 days after the lockdown). If the most severe symptoms arise 7 days post infection, that would suggest that we should begin to see a small decline over the next few days if the lockdown is working I think? (I admit to being a little disappointed in the spike today, although could be due to many reasons).
In Wuhan, the reported cases only started to drop 10-11 days after the beginning of the lockdown. They continued to rise right up until that point.
I'm going to go for a peak on Friday, with declining numbers from then on.
And I will also forecast that by a week Friday, they'll have more than halved compared to the peak.
I know the site is your brainchild RCS, but this crisis has brought the best out of you. Your composed, informative reassuring posts pauses of calm among spanking of panic buttons and gnashes of despair.
@rcs1000 When would you expect to see the number of new cases in Italy start to level off? I'd have hoped to see it the next few days I think. Assuming they have a 24-48h turnaround for new tests, the new cases today would have been sampled yesterday or Monday (i.e., 7 days after the lockdown). If the most severe symptoms arise 7 days post infection, that would suggest that we should begin to see a small decline over the next few days if the lockdown is working I think? (I admit to being a little disappointed in the spike today, although could be due to many reasons).
In Wuhan, the reported cases only started to drop 10-11 days after the beginning of the lockdown. They continued to rise right up until that point.
I'm going to go for a peak on Friday, with declining numbers from then on.
And I will also forecast that by a week Friday, they'll have more than halved compared to the peak.
I know the site is your brainchild RCS, but this crisis has brought the best out of you. Your composed, informative reassuring posts pauses of calm among spanking of panic buttons and gnashes of despair.
@rcs1000 When would you expect to see the number of new cases in Italy start to level off? I'd have hoped to see it the next few days I think. Assuming they have a 24-48h turnaround for new tests, the new cases today would have been sampled yesterday or Monday (i.e., 7 days after the lockdown). If the most severe symptoms arise 7 days post infection, that would suggest that we should begin to see a small decline over the next few days if the lockdown is working I think? (I admit to being a little disappointed in the spike today, although could be due to many reasons).
In Wuhan, the reported cases only started to drop 10-11 days after the beginning of the lockdown. They continued to rise right up until that point.
I'm going to go for a peak on Friday, with declining numbers from then on.
And I will also forecast that by a week Friday, they'll have more than halved compared to the peak.
I know the site is your brainchild RCS, but this crisis has brought the best out of you. Your composed, informative reassuring posts pauses of calm among spanking of panic buttons and gnashes of despair.
You're very kind
Don't let it go to your head Robert
I realise you played a minor role in this site's success, and I hope everyone realises this
Why have the government leaked a lockdown is coming?
Because they don’t want to look idiotic like the Italians yet a bit of notice for those who really don’t want to be cordoned in London is actually sensible. I know people who are already making their plans on the back of the media stories.
It looks statistically significant - which means that mathematically there is likely to be a difference, rather than just random error - but in terms of risk assessment it doesn’t look “significant” in a plain English sense. There are plenty of Os with the disease, so it is hardly as if they are immune.
Comments
https://twitter.com/gamesblazer06/status/1240416065722519553
https://www.newsweek.com/blood-type-coronavirus-covid-19-1492890
Btw NEW THREAD