politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Test post from Dirty Dicks
I’m at the PB gathering at Dirty Dicks where we’ve had a great turnout including a number who have travelled from as far as Manchester and Leeds to be here.
Thanks for the comments lads. Believe it or not I didn't read any further details of names until about 6.30 tonight as the nature of my work often means Internet surfing is not viable.
Im only just home and have to pop out again for a short bit but I'll hopefully post later about some aspects of the investigation, why events from the outside and (relative) inside continued to point strongly to a possible jihadist threat as the likeliest line of inquiry and how subsequent events may end up proving some of those concerns to be justified.
I haven't had much time to read up on the two people in the case other than they appear to have Wahabbist group connections. The motivations still remain to be proven but it'll be an interesting one if its anything other than how it looks.
Hm, was he under 18 when he was sentenced. That might (partly) explain the duration.
Nonetheless a man's sexuality is formed at 14, not 18. Pedophilia is incurable and intractable. This guy was clearly a dangerous and predatory pedo, from the get go.
The law, in this case, was an ass - and a dangerous ass, at that.
That is true, and I must say I am ignorant as to whether sentencing changes when you turn 16, or when you turn 18.
Hm, was he under 18 when he was sentenced. That might (partly) explain the duration.
Nonetheless a man's sexuality is formed at 14, not 18. Pedophilia is incurable and intractable. This guy was clearly a dangerous and predatory pedo, from the get go.
The law, in this case, was an ass - and a dangerous ass, at that.
That is true, and I must say I am ignorant as to whether sentencing changes when you turn 16, or when you turn 18.
18
You can get away with almost anything until then. My good wife despairs sometimes.
Hm, was he under 18 when he was sentenced. That might (partly) explain the duration.
Nonetheless a man's sexuality is formed at 14, not 18. Pedophilia is incurable and intractable. This guy was clearly a dangerous and predatory pedo, from the get go.
The law, in this case, was an ass - and a dangerous ass, at that.
That is true, and I must say I am ignorant as to whether sentencing changes when you turn 16, or when you turn 18.
Apparently you cannot go on the sex offenders register if you are younger than 18 (says the Times).
Ridiculous. Sexuality begins at pubescence, not the age of majority. Sex crimes should be treated in that light. If we did that, a little girl might not have been raped.
Win win I would say. Get to pick another fight with the EU which may be of interest to UKIP waverers and also protect an essential UK national interest.
‘Is there anybody there?’ said the Traveller, Knocking on the moonlit door; And his horse in the silence champed the grasses Of the forest’s ferny floor: And a bird flew up out of the turret, Above the Traveller’s head: And he smote upon the door again a second time; ‘Is there anybody there?’ he said. But no one descended to the Traveller; No head from the leaf-fringed sill Leaned over and looked into his grey eyes, Where he stood perplexed and still."
Win win I would say. Get to pick another fight with the EU which may be of interest to UKIP waverers and also protect an essential UK national interest.
UKIP are apparently having their best ever month for new membership applications.
Watched the extended version of Brian Blessed's Have I Got News For You stint. Glad I did, as I may well use the game of nipsy (possibly renamed) in a future book: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipsy
Much of the confusion as the days wore on was caused by people suggesting that it couldn't be a jihadist inspired (for many, read Al Qaeda) attack. I posted on Monday night why such a motivation couldn't be ruled out
Why ironically the speculations of why it couldn't be, may suggest that it was:
-The attack wasn't spectacular: It was, it just didnt quite go to plan.
-The attack was on an unlikely event: Exactly, under defended and full of crowds, it was also local to the two suspects
-There was no big claim: This is something that would not surprise the authorities at all. They are well aware that the global jihadists have massively decentralised their actions mainly because it has to be, its essentially tactical necessity and important to vary their approaches. Thus actual actions may not be subject to a central control, in fact they may be almost entirely home brewed and autonomous.
-There were not many people involved: The USA appears to have actually been relatively free from larger networks for some time. Thus to have one or two key actors rather than 4 or 5 is very consistent with the situation in the US in recent years. In short larger networks simply have not been able to organise in the US, at least that the authorities know of.
As a result the authorities would have seen the jihadist motivation as still a very strong possibility.
Is it a jihadist inspired motivation though in this case? It seems the logical course but I think thats still to come out. It does fit the picture that US authorities have nightmares over; the domestic, apparently unconnected, lilywhite.
Win win I would say. Get to pick another fight with the EU which may be of interest to UKIP waverers and also protect an essential UK national interest.
UKIP are apparently having their best ever month for new membership applications.
But if HMG don't win through on this FTT, even the Cameroons might consider themselves forced to advocate leaving the EU.
I really think this is make or break for the UK. If they are really determined to ignore our interests to this extent the drive to leave will be very hard to resist. Cameron has already explained this in words of one syllable. It will be very interesting to see how Germany plays this when it comes to representations to the court.
For those who like consistency: The Adam Gadahn message...
You may not know this guy, an American born and significant Al Qaeda figure who hangs out Pakistan.
A while ago this guy did the usual videos calling for followers to attack targets in their neighborhoods....
Interestingly he also mentioned a guy called Nidal Hassan, remember him? He was the US soldier who shot up an Army base in the US a while back with an apparently jihadist motivation. Hasan was painted in the video as an ideal, a man in an island of unbelievers who struck on his own initiative, without fear. In short, Gadahn was advocating a local autonomy message, don't wait for some central call, you don't need to go to Jihad camp,. you don't need training in the mountains. No sir, watch some videos, get tooled up and go make it happen in your community.
Hassan, however, was potentially not without certainly some ind of aspirational link, if not actual direction, from an external 3rd party.
Gadahn then goes on to describe 3 key characteristics of a good target:
They should choose a target -they know well, -is feasible to hit and -will have a major impact.
Hindsight is 20-20 but it'll be interesting to see if this gets raised later.
This man clearly has insufficient respect for the outcome of the PB competition. Positively shameful I say. Yet another black mark for the EU. They are coming thick and fast.
Of course it's quiet - half the board is getting noisily sozzled at Dirty Dicks.
I wish I was there, but I had to come to the house in Hungary this weekend. I'm having a few drinks myself, and I've just smashed my record on Blackberry's wordmole game:88,404.
UKIP must be closing in on the LD membership number.
Assuming the EU elections in 2014 will drive UKIP numbers higher, they might find themselves matching/passing the Conservatives by the 2015 general election.
EDIT Or perhaps not. I got a bit carried away there! :-)
Listening to Heifetz's 1935 recording of Bach's great Chaconne. Sometimes older is best.
Toms
A brave and welcome post to counterpoint the debauchery of the PBers at Dirty Dicks.
Brave too to claim it as the best. A piece of music which every violinist of note has recorded in the last century. What of Grumiaux, Oistrakh, Milstein, Stern, Perlman etc etc who all have their fans?
Anyway here is one of my favourites. Let's call it a great recording. Viktoria Mullova on the 1723 Jules Falk Stradivarius playing live at St. Nikolai Church, Leipzig.
Actually my favourite is her first recording on Phillips but this will do as YouTube didn't yield my first request.
I believe Mullova would have been recognised as one of great violinists of the 20th century had she been twenty years older and been able to flourish during the great age of classical music recordings. Instead she became famous for winning a Gold Medal at the International Tchaikovsky competition in 1982, then becoming one of last artists to defect from the USSR jumping her protectors in Helsinki during a concert tour the following year. She was granted asylum by the US.
She is now married to an Englishman and lives in Holland Park.
Got back from DDs a short while ago. Good to see everyone again, as well as several new faces! Thanks to Fat Steve for arranging the bash and also Mike and TSE for running the PB site!
Jack W, I just realised I forgot to "Jedi Mind-trick" TSE into revealing your real-life persona, so your secret is still safe!!
If he was hiding in the boat then it is quite possible that his location would have been picked up by thermal imaging photography taken from the helicopter.
This would explain why the Police might have announced that the search was over and the curfew ended.
The Police, even if they knew his location, would not have attempted to apprehend him in the boat for fear of him detonating explosive devices or wrong identity. If he was listening in to news broadcasts then the public announcement might have caused him to move from the boat.
Complete and utter speculation but it fits the odd events of the past couple of hours.
I think that could be right. There was an air of complacency about the press conference which seemed a bit odd at the time but if they all knew where he was that would explain it.
The FBI admitted Friday they interviewed the now-deceased Boston Marathon bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev two years ago and failed to find any incriminating information about him.
As first reported by CBS News correspondent Bob Orr, the FBI interviewed Tsarnaev, the elder brother of at-large bombing suspect Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, at the request of a foreign government to see if he had any extremist ties, but failed to find any linkage.
Both Tsarnaev brothers were legal permanent residents of the U.S. There is no evidence so far that either brother received any tactical training.
CBS News correspondent John Miller reports it is likely Russia asked to have the elder Tsarnaev vetted because of suspected ties to Chechen extremists.
The FBI admitted Friday they interviewed the now-deceased Boston Marathon bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev two years ago and failed to find any incriminating information about him.
As first reported by CBS News correspondent Bob Orr, the FBI interviewed Tsarnaev, the elder brother of at-large bombing suspect Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, at the request of a foreign government to see if he had any extremist ties, but failed to find any linkage.
Both Tsarnaev brothers were legal permanent residents of the U.S. There is no evidence so far that either brother received any tactical training.
CBS News correspondent John Miller reports it is likely Russia asked to have the elder Tsarnaev vetted because of suspected ties to Chechen extremists.
The FBI admitted Friday they interviewed the now-deceased Boston Marathon bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev two years ago and failed to find any incriminating information about him.
As first reported by CBS News correspondent Bob Orr, the FBI interviewed Tsarnaev, the elder brother of at-large bombing suspect Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, at the request of a foreign government to see if he had any extremist ties, but failed to find any linkage.
Both Tsarnaev brothers were legal permanent residents of the U.S. There is no evidence so far that either brother received any tactical training.
CBS News correspondent John Miller reports it is likely Russia asked to have the elder Tsarnaev vetted because of suspected ties to Chechen extremists.
The FBI admitted Friday they interviewed the now-deceased Boston Marathon bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev two years ago and failed to find any incriminating information about him.
As first reported by CBS News correspondent Bob Orr, the FBI interviewed Tsarnaev, the elder brother of at-large bombing suspect Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, at the request of a foreign government to see if he had any extremist ties, but failed to find any linkage.
Both Tsarnaev brothers were legal permanent residents of the U.S. There is no evidence so far that either brother received any tactical training.
CBS News correspondent John Miller reports it is likely Russia asked to have the elder Tsarnaev vetted because of suspected ties to Chechen extremists.
Forget the peripheral rubbish about Boston. Let's talk about DD's tonight!
Only capable of posting one time as I'm about to collapse however...
What a great evening. My first time and I was treated royally. A super lot of conversations with all ages from the very young lurkers up to the venerable Jack.
Nice to meet Ave it and Sunil and double carpet, stoge (several times) and especially TSE who I owe a huge THANK YOU you know what for!. And loads of others especially the secretive establishment linked insiders :-)
One word of warning about DD's however, the Youngs Special is stronger than you think!
I left intending to catch my 11 ish train from Victoria (apologies secretive one but I had to try and get the Underground). Well after a signal failure and a change of trains, I got to Victoria 10 mins late for the train and had to get the 00.07. Got back to the hotel ,finally, and found the final throws of a wedding party.
I had to stay up and watch the antics - women falling off shoes and stridently declaring they were sober, gents staring into their beers and talking about sport. What fun.
OK time for bed and not really looking forward to my 4 hour drive later today.
I think that could be right. There was an air of complacency about the press conference which seemed a bit odd at the time but if they all knew where he was that would explain it.
Oh dear, my speculation was far too complicated,
It was a trail of blood leading to the boat that revealed his location. The house owner [?] went into his garden and saw the blood and looked into the boat and saw him there then reported his location to the police. I guess he wasn't in any state to continue with the run.
I think that could be right. There was an air of complacency about the press conference which seemed a bit odd at the time but if they all knew where he was that would explain it.
Oh dear, my speculation was far too complicated,
It was a trail of blood leading to the boat that revealed his location. The house owner [?] went into his garden and saw the blood and looked into the boat and saw him there then reported his location to the police. I guess he wasn't in any state to continue with the run.
Opemijo Jaji, 18, was a violent pedophile, known to be obsessed with "little white girls". In 2011 he was convicted of sexually assaulting a 12 year old, he was only stopped from brutal rape when interruped by a passer by.
He was given.... a ten month detention and training order. He was released after FIVE MONTHS. The very next month he was convicted of possessing the most obscene category of images of child abuse after downloading videos - all of brutal rapes of little white girls.
He was then given an 18 month... "youth rehabilitation order" requiring him to be "supervised" by a probation officer.
Jaji was on a bus after meeting his probation officer when he followed home an 11 year old girl, dragged her into bushes, and violently raped her for three hours.
She survived, and testified against him this week. He has, finally, got life.
Is it beyond the wit of the authorities to put an obvious pedo behind bars, until he can no longer be a danger, once he has been convicted of attempted rape AND downloading the worst kind of violent child porn?0 Or does it take some Solomonic wisdom that our judiciary cannot be expected to posses, to discern that this guy was a clear and present danger?
Grrr.
But that would mean a shed load of redundancies in the excuse industry, and we can't have that
Comments
In more important news, P3 of the Bahrain Grand Prix is tomorrow, as is qualifying.
Hope the attendees have a nice time.
Thanks for the comments lads. Believe it or not I didn't read any further details of names until about 6.30 tonight as the nature of my work often means Internet surfing is not viable.
Im only just home and have to pop out again for a short bit but I'll hopefully post later about some aspects of the investigation, why events from the outside and (relative) inside continued to point strongly to a possible jihadist threat as the likeliest line of inquiry and how subsequent events may end up proving some of those concerns to be justified.
I haven't had much time to read up on the two people in the case other than they appear to have Wahabbist group connections. The motivations still remain to be proven but it'll be an interesting one if its anything other than how it looks.
"Mr. W, I'm not sure a chap suffering a fit of exclamation marks should necessarily be attacking the sobriety of others."
Twas a jealous observation rather than an attack !!
I'll get my coat.
You can get away with almost anything until then. My good wife despairs sometimes.
How long will he be in prison,10 years max?
hmm... no posts for 20 mins but no problem posting. Is everyone in the pub?
Win win I would say. Get to pick another fight with the EU which may be of interest to UKIP waverers and also protect an essential UK national interest.
Knocking on the moonlit door;
And his horse in the silence champed the grasses
Of the forest’s ferny floor:
And a bird flew up out of the turret,
Above the Traveller’s head:
And he smote upon the door again a second time;
‘Is there anybody there?’ he said.
But no one descended to the Traveller;
No head from the leaf-fringed sill
Leaned over and looked into his grey eyes,
Where he stood perplexed and still."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVXshbV-5FM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311559/Thatcher-death-party-organiser-150-000-council-home-bought-PM-s-right-buy-scheme.html
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/325291316986658818
But if HMG don't win through on this FTT, even the Cameroons might consider themselves forced to advocate leaving the EU.
Watched the extended version of Brian Blessed's Have I Got News For You stint. Glad I did, as I may well use the game of nipsy (possibly renamed) in a future book: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipsy
Much of the confusion as the days wore on was caused by people suggesting that it couldn't be a jihadist inspired (for many, read Al Qaeda) attack. I posted on Monday night why such a motivation couldn't be ruled out
Why ironically the speculations of why it couldn't be, may suggest that it was:
-The attack wasn't spectacular: It was, it just didnt quite go to plan.
-The attack was on an unlikely event: Exactly, under defended and full of crowds, it was also local to the two suspects
-There was no big claim: This is something that would not surprise the authorities at all. They are well aware that the global jihadists have massively decentralised their actions mainly because it has to be, its essentially tactical necessity and important to vary their approaches. Thus actual actions may not be subject to a central control, in fact they may be almost entirely home brewed and autonomous.
-There were not many people involved: The USA appears to have actually been relatively free from larger networks for some time. Thus to have one or two key actors rather than 4 or 5 is very consistent with the situation in the US in recent years. In short larger networks simply have not been able to organise in the US, at least that the authorities know of.
As a result the authorities would have seen the jihadist motivation as still a very strong possibility.
Is it a jihadist inspired motivation though in this case? It seems the logical course but I think thats still to come out. It does fit the picture that US authorities have nightmares over; the domestic, apparently unconnected, lilywhite.
Time, however, will tell where this one goes.
You may not know this guy, an American born and significant Al Qaeda figure who hangs out Pakistan.
A while ago this guy did the usual videos calling for followers to attack targets in their neighborhoods....
Interestingly he also mentioned a guy called Nidal Hassan, remember him? He was the US soldier who shot up an Army base in the US a while back with an apparently jihadist motivation. Hasan was painted in the video as an ideal, a man in an island of unbelievers who struck on his own initiative, without fear. In short, Gadahn was advocating a local autonomy message, don't wait for some central call, you don't need to go to Jihad camp,. you don't need training in the mountains. No sir, watch some videos, get tooled up and go make it happen in your community.
Hassan, however, was potentially not without certainly some ind of aspirational link, if not actual direction, from an external 3rd party.
Gadahn then goes on to describe 3 key characteristics of a good target:
They should choose a target
-they know well,
-is feasible to hit and
-will have a major impact.
Hindsight is 20-20 but it'll be interesting to see if this gets raised later.
This man clearly has insufficient respect for the outcome of the PB competition. Positively shameful I say. Yet another black mark for the EU. They are coming thick and fast.
They reported having 22,000 members on 11th February
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/301002037699702784
24,000 members on 26th March
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/316632162289987584
and 25,000 members on 11th April.
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/322327897673191425
I wish I was there, but I had to come to the house in Hungary this weekend. I'm having a few drinks myself, and I've just smashed my record on Blackberry's wordmole game:88,404.
EDIT
Or perhaps not. I got a bit carried away there! :-)
A brave and welcome post to counterpoint the debauchery of the PBers at Dirty Dicks.
Brave too to claim it as the best. A piece of music which every violinist of note has recorded in the last century. What of Grumiaux, Oistrakh, Milstein, Stern, Perlman etc etc who all have their fans?
Anyway here is one of my favourites. Let's call it a great recording. Viktoria Mullova on the 1723 Jules Falk Stradivarius playing live at St. Nikolai Church, Leipzig.
Actually my favourite is her first recording on Phillips but this will do as YouTube didn't yield my first request.
I believe Mullova would have been recognised as one of great violinists of the 20th century had she been twenty years older and been able to flourish during the great age of classical music recordings. Instead she became famous for winning a Gold Medal at the International Tchaikovsky competition in 1982, then becoming one of last artists to defect from the USSR jumping her protectors in Helsinki during a concert tour the following year. She was granted asylum by the US.
She is now married to an Englishman and lives in Holland Park.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQcio8OLneg (prettier visuals)
Oh I have found her original Phillips recording so take your pick:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8ClFfVnw8o (prettier sound)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9451668/Liberal-Democrat-membership-plunges-by-25.html
During the Eastleigh by election, I think it was reported that a third of LD members live in London.
Jack W, I just realised I forgot to "Jedi Mind-trick" TSE into revealing your real-life persona, so your secret is still safe!!
Good to see you (and others) earlier and many thanks to Fat Steve for organising things (and to Mike and the team for keeping the show on the road).
In my next post I will reveal all the gossip that was disclosed tonight...
I will have nightmares about those shoes. They are the fashion equivalent of a Crystal Swing single.
http://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/325399046216888320/photo/1
Combined with the fact that he created a YouTube playlist entitled "Terrorists" five months ago, this seems like a blunder by the authorities.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OnlyInBOS/status/325398341506723840/photos/null
I think we can safely say he's the most cornered person in history...
This would explain why the Police might have announced that the search was over and the curfew ended.
The Police, even if they knew his location, would not have attempted to apprehend him in the boat for fear of him detonating explosive devices or wrong identity. If he was listening in to news broadcasts then the public announcement might have caused him to move from the boat.
Complete and utter speculation but it fits the odd events of the past couple of hours.
I think that could be right. There was an air of complacency about the press conference which seemed a bit odd at the time but if they all knew where he was that would explain it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Boston_Police
The FBI admitted Friday they interviewed the now-deceased Boston Marathon bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev two years ago and failed to find any incriminating information about him.
As first reported by CBS News correspondent Bob Orr, the FBI interviewed Tsarnaev, the elder brother of at-large bombing suspect Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, at the request of a foreign government to see if he had any extremist ties, but failed to find any linkage.
Both Tsarnaev brothers were legal permanent residents of the U.S. There is no evidence so far that either brother received any tactical training.
CBS News correspondent John Miller reports it is likely Russia asked to have the elder Tsarnaev vetted because of suspected ties to Chechen extremists.
Full story: http://cbsn.ws/XLR8hd
https://mobile.twitter.com/Lord_Voldemort7
It is a tough job that the intelligence services do. The costs of the smallest failure can be very high.
But something went wrong here. And a big rethink of intelligence sharing and trust between the US and Russia is overdue.
Only capable of posting one time as I'm about to collapse however...
What a great evening. My first time and I was treated royally. A super lot of conversations with all ages from the very young lurkers up to the venerable Jack.
Nice to meet Ave it and Sunil and double carpet, stoge (several times) and especially TSE who I owe a huge THANK YOU you know what for!. And loads of others especially the secretive establishment linked insiders :-)
One word of warning about DD's however, the Youngs Special is stronger than you think!
I left intending to catch my 11 ish train from Victoria (apologies secretive one but I had to try and get the Underground). Well after a signal failure and a change of trains, I got to Victoria 10 mins late for the train and had to get the 00.07. Got back to the hotel ,finally, and found the final throws of a wedding party.
I had to stay up and watch the antics - women falling off shoes and stridently declaring they were sober, gents staring into their beers and talking about sport. What fun.
OK time for bed and not really looking forward to my 4 hour drive later today.
It was a trail of blood leading to the boat that revealed his location. The house owner [?] went into his garden and saw the blood and looked into the boat and saw him there then reported his location to the police. I guess he wasn't in any state to continue with the run.
The helicopter detection story is revived.
Which is the true story?
http://alyssalindley.tumblr.com/post/48368749553/ive-met-the-boston-bombers
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/04/19/two-quotes/