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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An amazing statistic from the Survation Dudley North poll
None of the 2010 LD voters in the Survation Dudley N poll said they'd be backing party at GE2015. They're now "don't know" or LAB backers
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1. a "cyclically-adjusted current balance by the end of a rolling, five year forecast period" (the Primary Fiscal Mandate); and,
2. public sector net debt as a percentage of GDP to be falling at a fixed date of 2015-16.
OBR's March EFO forecast that the government was on target to meet the primary mandate but not the supplementary debt ratio target.
Specifically, the OBR forecast that the government, as a result of measures introduced in the March 2013 budget, would put the CACB back into surplus in 2016-17 and achieve a full year net surplus in 2017-18. The OBR claimed this forecast outcome had a greater probability than 50% and therefore that the government was meeting its target.
Chote backed off making a specific prediction on the supplementary target ("unfortunately, one cannot estimate the probability of achieving the supplementary target, given that we do not have a joint distribution that would allow us to apply the same technique."), but produced forecast growth, expenditure and borrowing figures from which headline estimates (without probability assessment) were produced. These forecast PSND as a % of GDP to rise by 2.4% in 2015-16 and by another 0.5% in 2016-17. These forecasts imply that the government would not meet its supplementary target but without the confirmation of a probability assessment.
What we know now is that the OBR's March EFO greatly underestimated growth and revenues this financial year. Given this and, with their forecasts for expenditure being (so far) in line with ONS actuals, the OBR's borrowing forecast ended up being far too high.
Given the pessimism of the March EFO and intervening gaps in forecast to actual, it is almost certain that the OBR will confirm that the government is continuing to meet its primary mandate and highly likely that the dates for achieving the surplus will be brought forward.
[to be continued]
[...continued]
The ONS stats show that the supplementary Debt to GDP target is being met for the aggregate figures (PSND) but not on the narrower but headline PSND ex figures: What is revealing though is the topping out of the ratio in this year's monthly figures. This suggests that the current level of growth is beginning to turn the balance:
We need to wait until the OBR releases its December EFO tomorrow to see what revisions are made to their Debt ratio forecasts. The new forecasts will certainly reduce the growth in debt ratios as forecast in the March publication, but it will be touch and go as to whether Chote will predict that Osborne is now on course to meeting both primary and supplementary targets.
I would not like to bet against Osborne achieving both targets by the end of this parliamentary term, regardless of what revisions Chote makes to his forecasts tomorrow!
Tempted to put a little on. Hamilton's only 6, so Rosberg's over four times as long. But the two men have practically identical points-per-finish levels (10.5 for Hamilton, 10.6875 for Rosberg). The difference in points at the end of the season was a DNF for Hamilton and three (all reliability) for Rosberg. I think they're extremely closely matched.
Thus the probability of none being found in the sample of 11, assuming that this rate is true, is (9/11)^11 = 0.11. Thus there is not enough evidence to overturn the null hypothesis (of Mike's expectation) that 1 or 2 out of 11 2010 Lib Dems tell the pollsters they will stay loyal.
However, in the November ICM, the rate of Lib Dem loyalty was 30%*. So, the probability of no loyal Lib Dems being found in a sample of 11, assuming a loyalty rate of 3/10, is (7/10)^11 = 0.020. This is significant at the 5% level, so this opinion poll does provide evidence that: * Incidentally, I've just checked this rate in the latest national Survation poll, and it is also 30%.
That's still exactly what I said with far fewer yellow boxes! Well, except the bit about betting against Osborne. The golden rule on betting against Osborne is to always have tim on the other side of the bet.
The yellow boxes are there as part of my campaign to make tim's posts more evidence based.
It is a step too far to expect the betting strategy to follow.
The only policy so far from the Labour party is Ed "Canute" Miliband's energy price freeze. Which will turn into a pensioner's-freeze policy if ever enacted.
Labour will have to do a lot better than hope the Tories implode.
Perhaps the site's resident farmer could write an article on the deal?
Total: 36
Lab: 15
Con: 11
LD: 7
PC: 1
Ind: 2 (Joyce and Mercer)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22617339
"Police are investigating 54 alleged gangs in a crackdown on child grooming in England and Wales, peers have heard."
This started to go exponential around 12 years ago
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2513653/Sexual-violence-gang-neighbourhoods-like-war-zones-girls-young-11-groomed-raped.html
"Britain's worst gang hit neighbourhoods are seeing levels of sexual violence as bad as in war zones, it was claimed today."
Why would the (c. 10%-15%?) of voters who know about this - mostly erstwhile labour voters - vote for people who are quite happy to collude in covering it up?
Percentages of total MPs for each party standing down:
Lab: 6.2%
Con: 3.9%
LD: 12.3%
PC: 33.3%
Goldman Sachs appear to think that threatening to downsize their UK operation post Brexit will be seen as a bad thing.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100249028/goldman-sachs-would-drastically-cut-its-london-office-if-the-uk-quits-the-eu/
And still the LDs do nothing about it. Really odd.
The Tory party must take up the cause for lower income people and the aspirational working classes if they are to have a chance in the next election. These issues are the real meat an potatoes for the electorate. On the other side I would like to see out of work benefits frozen in cash terms for a further year. With a 5% rise in the minimum wage and a benefits freeze it really will pay to work.
Most of this is oppositionism and perfectly legitimate in that context. It makes as much sense as Clegg claiming that Labour has opposed £83bn of cuts to welfare. These are promises to be made and quietly forgotten.
I really have no idea what their economic plan is. At one time it was to
investspend more because the cuts were too deep too fast but I can't believe even Balls thinks that any more. Mr Blanchflower is the last man standing on that position. There have been comments that they are going to be tough on benefits but they are understandably vague on the details. I really don't know where they stand and sooner or later that is going to be a problem for them.Jings - there must be some other public sector centric areas that need a news editor too ?
For lefties, by lefties - paid for by everyone.
"I really have no idea what their economic plan is"
Do you think they do ?
House!
Of course the coalition are rattled - Labour have thrown an idea into the ring that is unworkable but sounds good. It is very hard for a responsible government to respond to that.
The joke must be on the Tories, as they have spent fully a quarter of a year trying to work out how to laugh it off.
At least he won't lose any votes there.
Labour have been most successful when they followed the Tories plans (eg. 1997-2001). It's when they start to think for themselves that we have problems.
Just like Labour getting a boost when they have an argument with the unions, the Tories will get a boost if they have an argument with big business and the CBI as they will be seen to be acting in the interests of the people rather than big business. Taking up the minimum wage cause is the easiest way for the government to beat Labour at their own game and target the aspirational working classes who are looking at UKIP right now.
Re UKIP being involved in the debates
Your answer on the previous thread, that its easy to exclude UKIP on the basis that they have no MPs, would be fair enough if the debates were solely an analysis of what has happened in the past five years.
But they are not.
They are a chance for parties to show what they are offering for the the future, and to exclude a party that is averaging over 10% in opinion polls, getting 23% of the vote in local elections and have a decent chance of winning in many of the constituencies they are standing would only seem right and proper to people who favour a closed shop.
They won't know what's hit them when Google and Amazon ramp up their TV operations.
18 months out from the election and the Coalition need to put some blood in the water and give Labour's core voters a massive beatdown to ensure Labour aren't able to hitch themselves to government spending plans and gain any credibility.
Massively political, but Osborne has never shied away from such moves in the past.
1. Camborne & Redruth: no selection
2. Oxford West & Abingdon: Layla Moran
3. Truro & Falmouth: Simon Rix
4. Newton Abbot: Richard Younger-Ross**
5. Harrogate & Knaresborough: Helen Flynn
6. Watford: no selection
7. Montgomeryshire: Jane Dodds
8. St Albans: Sandy Walkington*
9. Weston-super-Mare: Mike Bell*
10.Hereford & South Herefordshire: Lucy Hurds
*: stood last time
**: former MP
Remember when the AGW (always gurning wrongly) types were saying Cameron was "running scared" of debates ?
The comments below that article are quite funny and not what the BBC must have been expecting.
Some people genuinely thought that the headline meant the BBC was going to be less diverse!!! LOL.
Big feature on immigration, particularly in Boston, Lincs written by Rod Liddle... it was almost a double page advert for UKIP. Locals wages through the floor, Eastern Europeans driving around in flash cars, beating up British people... It ended with something along the lines of "At least there is some hope, UKIP might take charge of the council soon"
The Latvians, Lithuanians and Russians are said to be horrified by the prospect of Romanians and Bulgarians undercutting them.
Leading The Sun editorial was a plea not to blame the immigrants but those whose policies allowed them in... the atmosphere in Boston was said to be that of a "tinderbox"
I am probably the only person on PB to read this today, but millions of working class voters will have
Approximately 19% of industrialised swine production (by number of animals) is in China, rising to 25% over the next few years (far larger if you include backyard production).
Genus Plc, which includes PIC (the "pig improvement company" - I tried to persuade them to call it "group" instead of company") is an industry in which the UK is a genuine world leader (albeit strong in the bovine semen market). It's an important market position in a growing sector and a significant source of foreign earnings.
Sky's rolling sports news programme is a good watch if its a busy sports night. It's often got plenty of footage/comment/soundbites you just never see elsewhere.
It'll be especially good tonight with Premier league reaction, ashes up ahead.
What is to stop the Chinese taking the semen, creating vast numbers of new pigs from it, then selling semen to everyone cheaper than us?
I had to smile at a recent news report from Sheffield, where gangs of vigilantes from the Pakistani community are apparently going around telling the newly arrived Roma about how the British behave.
I wouldn't pay for BBC news 24 - far inferior to Sky news.
From talking to a close friend who works there, the whole company is a bit of a shambles internally too, no one knows what to do and their management structure has broken down with Clark too worried about internal rivals for his position and trying to sabotage the careers of successful people in order to protect his job. Just horrible all around.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25219432
Are the odds good enough?
I really cannot see UKIP doing any better.
(But it's not.)
(insert joke here)
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What would the union jack look like if the Scottish bit was removed?
So, my guess is that UKIP won't be there, as it will take the agreement of Cameron, Clegg and Miliband for them to be invited. And Cameron, in all likelihood, will refuse to be there if Farage is.
Regarding the earlier question about whether the Sun could back UKIP, I think for entirely cynical reasons they will not. The Murdoch empire - I suspect - is quite keen to merge Sky Deutschland, BSkyB and Sky Italia to create a Sky Europe group. A pan European pay-TV outfit that bid for pan-European rights would require the approval of the EU competition authority, and therefore Rupert and James will be keen not to antagonise the Eurocrats too much. (In fact, threatening to go UKIP, but not actually doing so, probably maximises their leverage in discussions with Brussels.)
But election coverage has long been done on the past set of results, just as an objective measure.
Love the court artists pic of Nigella Lawson giving evidence ... pic.twitter.com
/ZwvaT5W0bx
Being excluded fits much better with the UKIP 'discrimination' message, and makes it clear that the old parties are seeking to exclude them. It also allows them to avoid being grilled on some of their more clueless policies, and stops Farage looking like just another politician.
So, my guess is that Farage will be publicly fuming at being excluded the debates, but privately will be rather please.
Where in the manifesto did it say there would be millions of immigrants from Eastern Europe?
Wasn't Labour's estimate for rather fewer?
What does it matter if they voted Labour then and wont now?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25213845
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_FLNG
http://abarrelfull.wikidot.com/prelude-floating-lng-terminal
That's over five times the weight of the latest American aircraft carriers.
I've just soiled my pants.
If the BBC version of reality was true that would be a 100% certainty.
(But it's not.)
I reckon they will win 1 or 2 and get about 12-13% of the vote
There has long been only 3 parties that poll in double figures
And as there has only ever been one election to feature debates, its hardly wrecking history to include the third/fourth most popular party at the time in one or two of them
The SPD have been very vocal in attempting to get a minimum wage implemented, and have made it a cornerstone of their coalition negotiations - and IIRC have been successful in getting one.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2517953/Nigella-Lawson-court-quizzed-drug-taking-claims-Charles-Saatchi-marriage-breakdown.html