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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yet another Dem TV Debate and this time Bernie’s expected to b
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yet another Dem TV Debate and this time Bernie’s expected to be in the firing line
Ahead of Saturday’s South Carolina primary we have yet another TV debate between the main contenders. This takes place in Charleston and will start at 1am GMT lasting two hours.
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Sky paper reviewer on covid -19 says it is very exciting and repeats it
People have died, thousands suffering, and real economic damage is possible
And its 'exciting'. She needs to have more respect
And of course they will in their thousands.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/24/coronavirus-covid-19-global-pandemic-closed-borders-market-crash/
Leaving you with an all-shite field.
The UK has only 4048 adult critical care beds, of which there were exactly 1000 available at the last reporting day (near the end of December 2019) - fewer than a quarter.
As soon as intensive care facilities become full, you can expect people who would have recovered from the virus, to die. You can also expect other people who currently form part of the 3000 now in intensive care but who wouldn't be able to get a bed because of all the Covid-19 cases, to die as well.
This is not exciting. This is f*cking scary.
And Super Tuesday is only a week away.
"Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said."
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
Fuck it. Let's go for twenty, and then at least it's a simple head-to-head.
Whatever Mike has in Sanders, Sanders has ten times more on Bloomberg.
You know, they should make Warren the nominee as she's the only (vaguely serious) candidate who can't be called by a name beginnig with 'b'.
I don't think it should have whittled down to just two candidates but the attrition rate so far has been exceptionally low, despite an exceptionally wide field. This close to Super Tuesday, for an open nomination, I think you'd normally be looking at about 3-4 serious candidates.
A long way to go but Trump vs. Bernie is not the foregone conclusion most on here think it is.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232407079379505153
Let's stick some numbers on it.
40% of the global population is 3.1bn; 70% is 5.4bn.
Even if only 1% of those with Covid-19 die, then that's a death toll of 30-55m.
On the other hand, if health systems are overwhelmed and not only the 2% of cases as experienced in Wuhan result in deaths but a third of the critical ones too, due to lack of care facilities (giving a 3.5% mortality rate), then that's about 110-190m people, or two to three times the death toll from WW2.
That's not counting secondary effects, from health systems collapsing due to infected staff through to severe economic, social and political disruption.
So, for example, decriminalising those who attempt to cross the border is not... ummm... universally popular.
Likewise, taking away people's existing healthcare plans polls really poorly.
And that wealth tax... while I personally am a fan of wealth taxes (albeit charged at a very low level), it's not... ahhh... much more popular than the Coronavirus.
To take some examples from the Pandemic Flu plan for Leics (pop 1050000, so multiply by 70 or so for UK figures) with an infection rate of 50% and 2.5% fatality rate there would be 12,500 excess deaths in a 3 month pandemic, reduce that infection rate to 25% and the excess deaths are 6,250. Roughly this projects to 350000 nationally.
If the mortality is half that, then we are looking at 175000 lives saved. It is a No brainer. Today in Italy there were an increase of 40% of cases, but the measures have only been in place a couple of days, so these are people infected before the measures were put in place.
https://twitter.com/mcspocky/status/1232097129365221377?s=19
If you have four candidates around the 10-15% mark, and one candidate on 30% (which is what's happening right now), then the candidate on 30% will get 60% of the delegates.
That is to say that we've had an exceptionally warm start to the year, and it's not impossible that March is colder, rather than warmer.
Let's see:
However, Downing Street reacted negatively to the suggestion and claimed it did not recognise the need for a “level playing field” between the UK and EU at all, in spite of the goals of the political declaration.
“Level playing field is an EU construct, not a piece of terminology which we use,” Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/25/downing-street-rejects-eu-opening-trade-offer
And let's contrast that with the Political Declaration which Boris signed up to:
Page 6: However, with a view to facilitating the movement of goods across borders, the Parties envisage comprehensive arrangements that will create a free trade area, combining deep regulatory and customs cooperation, underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field for open and fair competition, as set out in Section XIV of this Part [and other reference on the same page]
Page 14, heading for Section XIV: XIV. LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR OPEN AND FAIR COMPETITION...
the future relationship must ensure open and fair competition, encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840656/Political_Declaration_setting_out_the_framework_for_the_future_relationship_between_the_European_Union_and_the_United_Kingdom.pdf
One can hardly blame the EU for being dubious about whether this government can be trusted in anything.
The good news is this panic phase subsides when prudent management stops new cases from going exponential, which is the case now in China, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The bad news is that economic activity remains very low.
I hope that European politicians and officials spent the last few days talking to their Singaporean counterparts. It is remarkable how thoroughly almost every case here has now been traced to its infection point, using a combination of cell phone gps, cctv and most recently biological analysis - the big Church cluster here has now finally been successfully traced to a worker at the church who had attended a Chinese New Year dinner attended by two Wuhan visitors.
The doom and gloom and resignation to tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK is understandable but unnecessary. A digital surveillance state like the UK with a centralised health system is well equipped to contain this but the trade off will be a 2020 recession. It should be lighter than in Asia, given the UK’s economic bias to services, which apart from tourism can be satisfactorily managed on a Work From Home basis. Good job the new boy at No 11 has a fiscally expansionist Budget lined up. And I see they are taking my advice in random testing of thousands to see if there’s a hidden reservoir of mild or asymptomatic cases
The reactive rather than proactive response from the Health Dept and FCO are not however very encouraging. Telling people that have visited Italy to self isolate is all well and good, but why were you letting them go there on Monday in the first place? Hancock cut a pathetic figure with his “ooh well I’m not saying don’t go to Italy. Or am I? I wouldn’t go. Should you? Ooh I don’t know really, let me come back to you when we’ve wasted another day thinking about it”.
As others have noted, they should also be throwing money at ramping up ICU beds and I’ve seen no sign of that yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1232406719147511818?s=20
Those no deal Brexit refrigeration capacity would come in handy to store the bodies.
If this does get into the wild in my area of the UK I'd rather not got out if I can avoid it. Given how quickly it has gone from one confirmed case to hundreds in Italy, SK, and Iran once they start testing the general population, I've decided to grab another few weeks worth of food, and keeping my petrol tank full.
I am personally at almost no risk of death from it, but I'd like to have the resources to avoid my parents needing to go out if this does get here.
I think you want a playing field that is much bigger, by more than an order of magnitude, and much more diverse, with much more far reaching consequences.
I think it should be obvious that for a much bigger and much more complicated playing field the provisions which try to achieve a fair and even level will also have to be more extensive and - for both partners - also more intrusive.
The more you try to limit the level playing field provisions, the more the playing field will shrink, but that will not turn out to be Simples.
Live stream:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klDbFuxmXrA
Also, get a supply of neoprene gloves to wear while in public, and a large supplies of hand sanitizer and alcohol wipes for wiping down things you have to touch. Learn how to take the gloves off without infecting yourself
Seems we were right to worry.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
The EU is demanding unreasonable things once again. They are making the same mistake for the third time in this mess.
Seems Biden can remember that movie too. Except, he recalls it as a documentary.....
Seems he can remember Ali's rope-a-dope too.....
A British movie frm the mid 60's. You can tell it is a British movie because all the Chinese characters are played by Brits with names like Martin and Peter.....
"But Martin was born in the East End of London, into a Jewish family, the son of a Russian-Jewish grocer and his Polish-Jewish wife who had left Russia at the revolution....."
"Quite. He looks like a dodgy foreigner. He'll do....."
Back in the days when UKIP made movies......
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/grace-assembly-coronavirus-mystery-solved-mega-cluster-linked-to-2-wuhan-tourists-via-a
This is Brexit. Get used to it.