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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day
We’ll have to wait until the early hours of May 8th 2015 before we can start to say for sure whether the Ashcroft marginals polling or the Alan Bown funded Survation polls are in anyway accurate but they could have a more immediate impact – on the decisions of many in the Conservative “class of 2010“ on whether to continue in politics.
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How many Labour MP's are already quitting, or considering Mayor ambitions etc. Are they disheartened too?
Main reasons for separating the two is that mortgages are secured (and therefore are a different type of risk to the lending institution) and, more importantly, that the funds disbursed are (mostly) used for investment rather than consumption expenditure.
Anyway here goes. Note that these figures include lending to Housing Associations as well as Households: There has been an material increase in mortgage lending, though much of this is offset by existing borrowers paying down mortgage balances. It would not be valid on the basis of these figures to claim that that the recovery is based on an increase in consumer expenditure: they demonstrate an increase in household investment and, only to the extent that new borrowing exceeds paydowns, an increase in household borrowing.
How many have stepped down in total? OGH refers to 2. Are there others on the way out?
Priti Patel and Conor Burns were on the A list, it was hardly just luvvie central
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-List_(Conservative)
The optimistic answer is people who think they really can make a difference and have something to contribute. And then they meet the reality of being a back bencher, lobby fodder to be counted and not heard. They find that, however ambitious they are, they are surrounded by many who are equally ambitious and have been at it longer paying their dues and waiting their turn.
I actually think it would be good if some of these new MPs were made ministers in areas that they actually knew something about. Buggins turn is one of the many reasons that our political class seem ever more remote and unconnected to the rest of us focussed on party advancement rather than anything for us. But that is the way the system works and with very few exceptions that is the way it will continue to work. PMs, of any stripe, simply cannot afford to hack off too many of their party by appointing queue jumpers.
If some of these A listers had to be elected to find this out they are not as smart as they think they are.
That's an interesting and valid observation and may explain why people like Boris Johnson and Sir Robin Wales are perhaps more content running their small fiefdoms than being backbenchers at Westminster.
Why would someone like David Hodge give up running the £1 billion a year business that is Surrey County Council to be a backbench MP for Farnham or somewhere similar where his "power" would be limited.
I think this is why business people often eschew politics - in business they can command and cajole in politics they have to persuade and argue and that's a very different discipline.
On the other hand, Prescott was very interested in it as well and he really buggered things up.
But I'm not sure - I certainly come across people who appear to be strong UKIP supporters when canvassing. It's very rare to find people who strongly identify with the Greens (or even the Lib Dems). And it's surprising that UKIP has maintained its poll rating well above 10% despite the negative publicity that surrounded their conference and the lack of any important elections to keep them in the media. And the Lib Dems have joined the government and so can no longer go for the "up yours" NOTA vote.
All of this suggests to me that UKIP may well poll 10%+ at the general election.
""An extraordinary affair. I gave them their orders and they wanted to stay and discuss them."
EDIT: Remember, while the referendum party didn't have much impact in 1997 the SDP did shaft Labour in 1983. UKIP don't have to win or hold much support for more than one election to be very significant in betting on the next one.
Just to complete my input to mortgage and consumer credit stats, here are the net mortgage lending stats over the same periods in the previously posted tables. These demonstrate that increases in mortgage lending have been almost completely covered by repayments. Given that mortgages outstanding are around £1.2 trillion, a £6.4 or £7.5 million increase in net lending is only around half a per cent a year.
Even tim and Ben would find it difficult to see such an increase as a bubble.
Stephen Webb is an obvious example in the current government of a minister who actually knows about the area he is dealing with. We could do with more like him.
(You do realise Tim is going to tell us a completely new story about someone who was allegedly appointed to the Treasury because Dave thought she was an accountant now?)
Twitter rumours, don't put your house etc etc.
LDs not trusted after broken pledges, and will have also lost votes from Labs who feel their natural bedfellows have done the dirty on them by getting into bed w the Tories
Tories feel their party has sold out by compromising w the LDs, letting the dog wag the tail. also Cameron is closer to Miliband or Blair than any Previous Tory leader.
labour are still blamed for the economy, and the public don't rate Miliband. many WWC are (ex) Labour voters not so keen on Guardianista mass immigration parties.
So where would people who want out of the EU, new grammar schools to be allowed, lower taxes, restrictions on immigration, criminals locked up instead of put on tags, scrapping of green taxes etc etc go?
4/6 LD to bt UKIP on vote share 2015 available in £100 to those who want to back up their views with cash
> Labour were not in power in 1983
> Ukip is not led by ex cabinet ministers like the SDP in 1983
> Ed is no Fatcha
> The Cons were going to win anyway in 1983
There is one similarity - the country is coming out of a slump into an economic boom - outpacing most other similar countries. The voters will give all that up for a nose spiting protest vote ?
6-7 % max for Ukip.
EDIT: Plus there's been a general fragmentation of the UK political scene since then. Every election the two-party vote decreases.
'Tory attacks SNP MSP over French accent'
http://tinyurl.com/nsjwazz
As for Farage - I'd suggest he will come unstuck long before May 2015.
Oh ye of little faith!
3 months in, 7% ROI inc a horrific run
The whole book is running at 13%
Still, no worries, best of luck
Typo could be that the 4 should've been a 10? Could equally have been bad odds making though I guess
He should have called him a Frog or a fromage alimentaires singes capitulards.
Maurice Chevalier accent is so boring.
A "Maurice Chevalier accent" would be silly in any language, including French.
Even the BBC would be reluctant to reprise the most famous example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRnbtRPC6v4
Who'd want to be an MP.
The salary is lower paid compared to other industries and professions.
You live your life under constant scrutiny and things you did before you became an MP get over analysed.
Plus the job entails being a glorified social worker when dealing with constituents.
Am on 47.5 at 3.17/1 - Just hope the rumour is right.
http://ianbone.wordpress.com/2013/12/03/class-war-election-statement-of-intent
claims that its candidates appear on the PB website
http://ianbone.wordpress.com/2013/12/02/class-war-candidates-now-listed-on-political-betting-forum/
Is this actually true? It's about time Britain had a 'seriously joking' political party, such as the Pirates in Sweden, the Radicals in Italy, and Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democrats in Russia.
Is there room in the market for more?
I don't really care about grammar schools. They are a means to an end, not the end in itself. What I want is better educational attainment for our children. Grammar schools may be part of the solution, but it will just be a part.
Supporters of grammar schools have to say what they will do for the many who fail to get in. To be fair, some have good answers to this.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 2m
Sky News reporting PC Toby Rowland is to sue Andrew Mitchell for libel. #gategate
Has anyone looked in the past at the impact it had on seats won by non-Tories? Could be an interesting parallel, although I'd argue UKIP has a broader appeal to those who feel excluded whereas (from memory) the RP was more right wing/anti-EU fanatics.
"Britain is no longer any kind of 'big country,' but merely a country of old Europe suitable for tourism and overseas study, with a few decent football teams." And foppish unintelligibility.
Re Scotland, they're not going to achieve much there I agree. But they never were, and I think that's in the price.
One man band I think less so than ever... Diane James, Paul Nuttall and even Michael Heaver are getting more media exposure now than any other kippers used to.
The man in the street has only heard of Boris, Cameron, Osborne, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Clegg and Farage. UKIP are no more of a one man band than the Libs.
This is possibly more of an issue for people who don't buy into the idea of being a small part of a collective movement (and businesspeople who do are probably rare). I've always been perfectly clear that I was unlikely to become PM or close to it and that I'd be personally better off pursuing my private career, but I was and am glad to help the cause by trying to win one of the 326 seats needed for a majority and then having some influence over decision-making (being able to talk about policy to any Cabinet Minister at any time is an underrated benefit).
That seems to me obviously more interesting and satisfying than being an IT service manager, however well-paid and stress-free that was.
"According to analysis by John Curtice and Michael Steed, "only a handful of the Conservatives' losses of seats can be blamed on the intervention of the Referendum Party". Their best estimate was that only four seats would have been Conservative without the Referendum Party standing. Supporters of the party contend the effect was greater: one estimate claims between 25 and 30 seats."
In any case, that was on 3% of the vote (similar to UKIP in 2010, when Anthony Wells estimates they cost the Tories only 1 or 2 seats). If UKIP get 6-7% or double figures it will be vastly more damaging.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4444
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/04/david-cameron-gambling-fixed-odds-betting-terminals?commentpage=1
Can't help but agree with Watson on this (urgh, I feel dirty saying that). But add it to the long list of 'things labour didn't have an issue with when they were in power'.
I work out a list of bets but I don't write the tweets or pick what bets to put up, the bloke who does didn't tell me this one!
Raceclear is our sister tipster, hopefully we can be as successful
If I had to guess, I'd give Ukip 10% at the next GE.
The SDP surge was different. Thatcher was very divisive but Labour shot themselves in the foot (literally, as they say nowadays) by electing Michael Foot.
I was much younger then and a Labour voter and I couldn't understand them bringing in this doddery old bloke - the sort who sits next to you on the bus, and you realise he's talking to himself and there's food stains all down his duffle coat.
No wonder the press had a field day, and the SDP looked like the voice of sanity. And temporarily, there was a big chasm labelled NOTA for them to fill. The chasm has been created this time by general distrust of politicians.
People tried to suggest I'd make a good MP.
I'd sooner trap one of my appendages in a door.
In fact, it might even be the case that the Tories are the 2nd largest party after the SNP in terms of membership, although neither slab nor scon publish reliable membership numbers.
It is easy to forget that any successful party has to be a broad church. Whilst you are right that many people think like him, I'm not sure that appealing to dinosaurs is a particularly successful strategy. At best, you need to appeal to your core and as many other people as possible, without actively repelling everyone else. You want to be a jam guy (ahem, SeanT) with many different flavours rather than Marmite.
As for the media exposure: I disagree. you mention James and Nuttall, but I'm a bit of a politics geek and I could not identify them in a line-up. It would be interesting to see any recent polling on this.
The mantle of the Scottish Tory surger is yours, my friend
LOL!
This country would become truly Great, if the vote was restricted to higher income tax rate payers and those that own property . Possibly testicles as well.
I am depressed and I have decided to get help
...... I am just going to come right out and say that I am clinically depressed. I went to see a doctor this week who prescribed me medication to relieve my black moods.
http://www.johnwoodcock.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=451:i-am-depressed-and-i-have-decided-to-get-help&catid=40:latest-news&Itemid=176
This country would become truly Great, if the vote was restricted to higher income tax rate payers and those that own property . Possibly testicles as well.
The Pirates in Sweden appeal to the under-30s. Their presentation goes: music, down with copyright, er, be cool, music, crowdfunding, don't be a suit. They've got a sizeable market share.
Class War's main manifesto policy in Britain will be a mansion tax: 50% per year on all properties worth more than £2m. The poor darlings surely don't understand the pricing of negative income-bearing assets, and they definitely don't understand trusts, or even how trusts avoid stamp duty. But...
Is it actually true that their candidates are listed on PB and are going to be available in the bookies in the near future, or is this just Ian Bone's self-promotion?
5% to Class War could give viewers something to talk about, even if the day won't come when the visual display shows 325 seats occupied by men in ski-masks. Most people aren't interested in the Liberal Democrats and UKIP etc.
Speak slowly with long pauses between words and enunciate in pure English RP.
Sir Winston set the example followed nobly by Ted Heath and the Blessed Margaret.
Sir Winston: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHBCMjyHxwQ
It is a sign of how Britain's standing in the world has fallen when we hear Blair or Cleggie atempt to parle Français.
Dave's rendition of Mandarin warmly reminds me of my own annual rendtiion of Auld Lang Syne. The way it should be done.
If Bloom is now considered the extreme wing of Ukip then I think they have done well compared to what people might have thought five years ago.
We shall see. UKIP have beaten expectations in all polls and elections (bar one in Scotland) in the last year or so. PB attitude is similar to a spread bettor who sells Australa runs at 300 at the start, sells again at 350 when they're 60-0, sells again at 400 when they're 130-1, and carries on until the Aussies are 600-7 dec
And till probably won't admit they were wrong
The bet is for all that want to take it. Better odds on lib Dems beating ukip than you would get anywhere else in the world, 4/6.
My money is where my mouth us roll up roll up
I won't take that bet, thanks.
Works every time.
Any more parties than this is really a form of confusion marketing where you are being offered deals that turn out to be too good to be true.
But the end result will be to help Labour get into power and deliver even more anti-UKIP policies.
So I'm not sure why you are so pleased.
Believe it, it's true.
Everyone's different.
No problem re the bet, only three people seem to really believe Ukip will fade away
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For one I have never voted Conservative so don't care if they are not in government.
Secondly, I don't see much difference between Conservatives and Labour anyway, so wouldn't bother me which one is in charge.
Thirdly, if it takes a Labour win to make Conservatives wake up to the fact that the only way for things to change is to vote Ukip, so be it
What could be more anti ukip than foreign aid commitments, mass immigration, A pro EU leader, the importance given to gay marriage, the reluctance to reinstate grammar schools, and a 45% top rate of tax?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100248976/cameron-needs-to-fire-the-tory-leakers-who-are-endangering-the-union/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter