So the great stock market crash is now barely crossing the pond with futures down between 0.7 and 2.4 % I'm not convinced that a great crash is yet upon us. Oil has dropped a little but it was worse a couple of weeks ago. Currecnies are ok and both the Dax and the FTSE have settled. Maybe time to buy again or better still have some luch and see how things are by tea-time.
Markets generally settle when Wall Street is about to open.
Why would a global killer virus affect currencies? Unless a flight to safety, $ and Swiss Fr.
The Dow futures are down 0.7%. It's not armageddon today.
Edit Dow down 0.78%
The screen I am looking at, the Dow is expected to open down about 800 points - roughly 3%
Sorry yes - was looking at something else. Still don't see it as too bad given the Dow is over-valued anyway IMHO.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
I'm travelling to London alternate weeks to work on client site. I'm crossing my fingers that travel restrictions are imposed while I'm working from home, rather than when I'm in a London hotel.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
Actually I did read somewhere, long ago, that the single most contaminated object is the "G" button in a lift.
I'd be amused in the future to see Patel as our third female Prime Minister ...
... If only because the overreactions and horror by the left on here would make eadric seem normal in comparison.
Well, I suppose there have been thicker leaders of the Conservative Party. Oh, hang on make that in the singular. Anyone heard anything from "IDS" recently? has he said anything particularly erudite on anything...ever?
So the great stock market crash is now barely crossing the pond with futures down between 0.7 and 2.4 % I'm not convinced that a great crash is yet upon us. Oil has dropped a little but it was worse a couple of weeks ago. Currecnies are ok and both the Dax and the FTSE have settled. Maybe time to buy again or better still have some luch and see how things are by tea-time.
Markets generally settle when Wall Street is about to open.
Why would a global killer virus affect currencies? Unless a flight to safety, $ and Swiss Fr.
The Dow futures are down 0.7%. It's not armageddon today.
Edit Dow down 0.78%
The screen I am looking at, the Dow is expected to open down about 800 points - roughly 3%
One share that is bucking the trend is YouGov, up 1% today. I wonder why that is?
YouGov is benefitting from an expectation of significant consolidation within the MR industry. Something I wish I had spotted months back, the shares having been a clear buy for some time.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
Actually I did read somewhere, long ago, that the single most contaminated object is the "G" button in a lift.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
Noticed there weren't as many at the gym as usual this morning. Hmmm.
I was comparing the risk of gettimg the virus - a few hundred in Italy have got it and maybe 2 or 3% will die of it, compared with 3,000 pa road deaths. Just keeping it in perspective. Keeping calm and carrying on.
Yes, but we each assume we can personally avoid the road deaths, because we are all above average drivers and, even if an accident happens in front of us, our above average reactions and some nifty James Bond driving will see us clear.
Quite. People's reaction to the odd terrorist attack or scary virus is always OTT compared with death by cancer, stroke etc. If this virus was called flu rather than a scary name it wouldn't have anything like the same response. I assume there is an evolutionary reason for this OTT reaction.
Fear of the unknown.
Its basically the same as xenophobia.
Rubbish. It's because the person who panics in a fire first, gets out of the door, and the others who delay will burn, especially those with normalcy bias (as on this site),. They just sit there thinking, Oh, this could never really happen to me
So the early panickers live on to spread their panicky genes. Because sometimes there really IS a fire.
What are these practical steps the early panickers are taking? Besides obsessive posting on the internet with various alter egos?
Obsessively washing your hands is probably quite sensible.
Not much more than it always has been sensible though.
Washing your hands and "catch it, kill it, bin it" are good advice all the time, especially at winter.
The effectiveness of such measures depends on their widespread adoption.
There's been a fair amount of modelling on this, assuming various infectivity rates for viruses, and the difference between (say) half the population and three quarters following the advice is quite dramatic in terms of the number of total infections.
Of course it's sensible - but an awful lot of people don't follow the advice without a great deal of prompting.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The sell positions I took before market open this morning are already up £2k. Normally I’d take profits but my instincts are that Wall Street open will accelerate rather than abate the selloff.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
I'd be amused in the future to see Patel as our third female Prime Minister ...
... If only because the overreactions and horror by the left on here would make eadric seem normal in comparison.
Well, I suppose there have been thicker leaders of the Conservative Party. Oh, hang on make that in the singular. Anyone heard anything from "IDS" recently? has he said anything particularly erudite on anything...ever?
Actually, yes. His analysis of the problems of people trapped in welfare because of the perverse incentives which applied especially under Brown was outstanding, and refreshingly based on actually going out to talk to real people. I remember him giving a speech at our local party association annual dinner; the first part of the speech was nothing special, albeit with some good anecdotes about Norman Tebbitt, but then he got on to welfare and he suddenly became absolutely passionate as well as demonstrating that he was very well-informed. It was riveting.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,"
So low temperatures may be why this so far has been an overwhelmingly northern hemisphere outbreak, with far fewer cases in hotter countries....
Yes, but a bit uneven. Classic 1970s drama, made on a shoestring but brilliant in its way. There's a point where one of the characters says only 15 people survived in a area with a population of 75,000 yet later on it's revealed 100,000 survived in Scotland.
Very few survived in Europe apparently though one of the books (possibly non-canon) says France had a higher survival rate than England.
The descent into chaos is surprisingly civilised - it's the death of Peter Bowles that really shakes you. His wife then cuts her hair and burns the house down which is something we'd all do in a crisis - I know I would (and Eadric might too).
I binge-watched Cobra at the weekend and David Cameron (sorry, Robert Sutherland) got there in the end. Will he win his election? Methinks he will and the devious right-wing Home Secretary (aren't they all?) will get his comeuppance as moderation triumphs. Or perhaps not?
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
That is a good article, but it is up to 9 days dependent on the conditions. Also these are results for other Coronaviruses such as SARS, but not yet for COVID-19. The assumption is that COVID-19 will be similar.
On a Radio 4 programme last week I heard that most viruses are broken down by bright sunlight which is one reason why colds and flu are more prevelent in winter and in cold climates.
I'd be amused in the future to see Patel as our third female Prime Minister ...
... If only because the overreactions and horror by the left on here would make eadric seem normal in comparison.
Well, I suppose there have been thicker leaders of the Conservative Party. Oh, hang on make that in the singular. Anyone heard anything from "IDS" recently? has he said anything particularly erudite on anything...ever?
Actually, yes. His analysis of the problems of people trapped in welfare because of the perverse incentives which applied especially under Brown was outstanding, and refreshingly based on actually going out to talk to real people. I remember him giving a speech at our local party association annual dinner; the first part of the speech was nothing special, albeit with some good anecdotes about Norman Tebbitt, but then he got on to welfare and he suddenly became absolutely passionate as well as demonstrating that he was very well-informed. It was riveting.
A riveting speech by IDS? Truly the world is ending.
I see BFE has a new market on whether the US will enter recession during 2020, with ‘yes’ being at 3.3. Those of the SeanT school of global apocalypse may wish to take a look...
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
Actually I did read somewhere, long ago, that the single most contaminated object is the "G" button in a lift.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
Actually I did read somewhere, long ago, that the single most contaminated object is the "G" button in a lift.
I'd imagine it is the flush button on a toilet cistern.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
That is a good article, but it is up to 9 days dependent on the conditions. Also these are results for other Coronaviruses such as SARS, but not yet for COVID-19. The assumption is that COVID-19 will be similar.
On a Radio 4 programme last week I heard that most viruses are broken down by bright sunlight which is one reason why colds and flu are more prevelent in winter and in cold climates.
Isn’t the point about this virus that, so far, it hasn’t been “similar”?
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
That is a good article, but it is up to 9 days dependent on the conditions. Also these are results for other Coronaviruses such as SARS, but not yet for COVID-19. The assumption is that COVID-19 will be similar.
On a Radio 4 programme last week I heard that most viruses are broken down by bright sunlight which is one reason why colds and flu are more prevelent in winter and in cold climates.
Because viruses need hosts to survive few last very long outside a host:
Actually, that German paper linked below has this interesting and perhaps even encouraging discovery
"Low temperature and high air humidity further increase the lifespan [of the virus on surfaces]," points out Kampf."
This might explain why it is thriving in central China - where right now they have cool temperatures and high humidity. Lombary and Veneto in northern Italy suffers the same in winter. As does Qom!
My God, I've just solved coronavirus. It will be worst in cool places with high humidity.
As the northern hemisphere warms the virus WILL die out?
And now, to work
Good news, as I am expecting to be in Bergamo by May, by when it won’t be cold and humid.
I'd be amused in the future to see Patel as our third female Prime Minister ...
... If only because the overreactions and horror by the left on here would make eadric seem normal in comparison.
Well, I suppose there have been thicker leaders of the Conservative Party. Oh, hang on make that in the singular. Anyone heard anything from "IDS" recently? has he said anything particularly erudite on anything...ever?
Actually, yes. His analysis of the problems of people trapped in welfare because of the perverse incentives which applied especially under Brown was outstanding, and refreshingly based on actually going out to talk to real people. I remember him giving a speech at our local party association annual dinner; the first part of the speech was nothing special, albeit with some good anecdotes about Norman Tebbitt, but then he got on to welfare and he suddenly became absolutely passionate as well as demonstrating that he was very well-informed. It was riveting.
A riveting speech by IDS? Truly the world is ending.
Yes, I was very surprised. This was in the early coalition years.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
That is a good article, but it is up to 9 days dependent on the conditions. Also these are results for other Coronaviruses such as SARS, but not yet for COVID-19. The assumption is that COVID-19 will be similar.
On a Radio 4 programme last week I heard that most viruses are broken down by bright sunlight which is one reason why colds and flu are more prevelent in winter and in cold climates.
Isn’t the point about this virus that, so far, it hasn’t been “similar”?
In a biological sense COVID-19 is a Corona Virus, like SARS. The exact effect on humans is somewhat but not very different from SARS.
Give it a month and there will be angry hordes taking an axe to your front door if they suspect you are hoarding canned food....
The scariest stat I saw is that it apparently incubates and transmits very quickly in gyms. Although apparently peak infection time was a couple of weeks ago.
Just as well none of us on here goes to a gym regularly.
A key factor must be how long the virus can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as door handles?
The best guess at the moment is that the virus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,"
So low temperatures may be why this so far has been an overwhelmingly northern hemisphere outbreak, with far fewer cases in hotter countries....
Yes, but a bit uneven. Classic 1970s drama, made on a shoestring but brilliant in its way. There's a point where one of the characters says only 15 people survived in a area with a population of 75,000 yet later on it's revealed 100,000 survived in Scotland.
Very few survived in Europe apparently though one of the books (possibly non-canon) says France had a higher survival rate than England.
The descent into chaos is surprisingly civilised - it's the death of Peter Bowles that really shakes you. His wife then cuts her hair and burns the house down which is something we'd all do in a crisis - I know I would (and Eadric might too).
John Hopkins now has Italian cases up to 215, second only to Korea (833) outside China (77,150).
I'm flying to Italy in 12 days time for a skiing holiday. I note that more than 3,000 people a year are killed on Italian roads (not counting pistes) so I'll be sure to look both ways.
Hope it goes well, but your relative risk point is a bit obscure. I would ski conservatively; you don't want to be looking for intensive care for a broken limb in a Northern Italian hospital atm.
I was comparing the risk of gettimg the virus - a few hundred in Italy have got it and maybe 2 or 3% will die of it, compared with 3,000 pa road deaths. Just keeping it in perspective. Keeping calm and carrying on.
Yes, but we each assume we can personally avoid the road deaths, because we are all above average drivers and, even if an accident happens in front of us, our above average reactions and some nifty James Bond driving will see us clear.
Quite. People's reaction to the odd terrorist attack or scary virus is always OTT compared with death by cancer, stroke etc. If this virus was called flu rather than a scary name it wouldn't have anything like the same response. I assume there is an evolutionary reason for this OTT reaction.
Fear of the unknown.
Its basically the same as xenophobia.
SNIP
What are these practical steps the early panickers are taking? Besides obsessive posting on the internet with various alter egos?
Selling all my shares last week, thus avoiding today's correction.
Anyone who was noting my remarks, should have done the same. I see that some of you didn't. I tried my best.
Nevertheless your decision has incurred costs - transaction costs and opportunity costs - as well as timing risk if you reenter the market too early, or too late. So you do have a psychological need to find fellow worriers so as to feel back within the herd, and to spread the panic so that you are eventually vindicated.
Despite all that, I have been selling too.
I have bought a few, down 20K but it will come back and some good bargains about. Brave to come out of market as it will rebound very quickly so very easy to lose out.
Comments
The poster people found condescending was:
Your Courage
Your Cheerfulness
Your Resolution
Will Bring
Us Victory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On
Interesting bit of EU trademark lunacy in there too.
There's been a fair amount of modelling on this, assuming various infectivity rates for viruses, and the difference between (say) half the population and three quarters following the advice is quite dramatic in terms of the number of total infections.
Of course it's sensible - but an awful lot of people don't follow the advice without a great deal of prompting.
the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,"
So low temperatures may be why this so far has been an overwhelmingly northern hemisphere outbreak, with far fewer cases in hotter countries....
Very few survived in Europe apparently though one of the books (possibly non-canon) says France had a higher survival rate than England.
The descent into chaos is surprisingly civilised - it's the death of Peter Bowles that really shakes you. His wife then cuts her hair and burns the house down which is something we'd all do in a crisis - I know I would (and Eadric might too).
I binge-watched Cobra at the weekend and David Cameron (sorry, Robert Sutherland) got there in the end. Will he win his election? Methinks he will and the devious right-wing Home Secretary (aren't they all?) will get his comeuppance as moderation triumphs. Or perhaps not?
The FTSE has crashed to 7146 - it hasn't been this low since, er, December 5th.
Perhaps everyone forgot Boris and the Tories won the election - or perhaps everyone suddenly remembered.
On a Radio 4 programme last week I heard that most viruses are broken down by bright sunlight which is one reason why colds and flu are more prevelent in winter and in cold climates.
https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/how-long-do-bacteria-and-viruses-live-outside-the-body/
Good news, as I am expecting to be in Bergamo by May, by when it won’t be cold and humid.