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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing
Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference.
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You really couldn't get two more different polls: one has the progressives (Warren + Sanders) on more than 50%, while the other has them on just 20%.
I suspect the former is nearer the truth (although I'd reckon they'll get perhaps 42-45% between them), and that Sanders has a healthy lead in Nevada.
That being said, I also suspect that Sanders' will end up repeating New Hampshire and Iowa, and ending up in the high 20s. He's going to be top of the class (again), but without picking up the degree of momentum and the steadily rising vote shares that one would expect from someone coming into his third successive popular vote victory.
I suspect that Buttigieg will end up also following the New Hampshire and Iowa path, and getting into the low 20s, with Klobuchar and Warren getting in the mid-teens.
I don't expect Biden or Steyer to get any delegates.
Of course, actual delegates will be apportioned according to Congressional Districts, so they could look somewhat different to raw votes.
In LibDem election literature......
I can't see anyone defeating Donald Trump, including Klobuchar, with the possible exception of Mike Bloomberg. Which is why the President is launching attacks on him.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/17/mike-bloomberg-2020-election-115711
Source: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/sanders-opens-10-point-lead-nationally-bloomberg-surges-in-new-poll-1.8532701
He doesn't give a scoobies about any of the others and nor should he.
A woman in her late 50's with a record as effective, and moderate, Senator on the other hand......
The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.
Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.
She's very unlikely to win.
I checked yesterday, and it turns out I backed her.
https://twitter.com/AngusRobertson/status/1229663228768215040?s=20
Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.
Robertson is a formidable figure. The SNP will be a lot stronger if he returns to Holyrood.
She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
Nothing that happens this year would surprise me but that scenario would surprise me the least.
Failed In London Try Holyrood
”As the betting expert who successfully predicted the 760/1 long shot for Democratic US President, I am writing to tell you that I am putting my money on the LibDem candidate in this Thursday’s Romford by-election......”
I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
Failed in Edinburgh try Lords Troughing
That Nicla is on the way out seems to be catching on - it’s all about her legacy (NGO salary) now.
The problem is that I guess a contested convention can be a little bit self-fulfilling; For example, say you're KLOBUCHAR and your SURGE ends up fizzling out in NV and SC. At that point your campaign is basically hopeless. However if you keep going until Super Tuesday you'll at least get a bunch of delegates from Minnesota, who you may be able to trade for a job, maybe even the VP spot. What have you got to lose?
Reasons for her to stay on are thin.
The question is then whether he has lots of the legendary MOMENTUM, but I don't think he'll really be swept along by that, firstly because he's a known quantity and people who don't want him don't want him, and secondly because if the field has been winnowed that implies that there's is also a wining moderate, possessing the said MOMENTUM.
Also most of the party bigwigs - potentially even Obama - have yet to play the endorsement card, which they can use to drive the narrative when they need to. But again, if the moderate side is still a mess by Super Tuesday, it's hard for them to do that before Super Tuesday.
This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
Back in the Spring of 2017 there was a poll that found that amongst the electorate as a whole, Blair had a net favourability rating of -51, compared to -27 with Corbyn then. There may be more recent polling, but it's hard to imagine that people have revised their view of Blair since. Corbyn's ratings have since plummeted to the ball park of 2017 Blair levels, so they really do have something in common now, and neither is the answer to Labour's woes.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html
Not that I am against a united Ireland but I thought you might be less enthusiastic.
Wilson, who Starmer named, won 4, Attlee won 3 and MacDonald won 1
Now Boris has ensured Northern Ireland's position in the UK for a generation by keeping Alliance voters backing the Union by avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland and ensuring Northern Ireland can enjoy both a soft Brexit and still technically staying within the UK to keep Unionists appeased
She would have landed far more blows to the Tories and the leaders of the Tory party than any of the remaining candidates. She could have undertaken a substantial rebuild, refocus, reenergise and reconnect program for Labour.
A mob vandalises Trinity College – and the college authorities and police look away."
https://thecritic.co.uk/law-and-disorder-in-cambridge-whose-side-is-the-police-on/
https://tinyurl.com/uxddnbk
Barcelona will trigger the €20m release clause of Leganes striker Martin Braithwaite this week, report Cadena Cope.
The Blaugrana found out on Monday that they are allowed by La Liga to sign a contracted player from another Spanish club this month following a long-term injury for Ousmane Dembele, who will not feature again this campaign.
This ruling has provoked some controversy, as Lega are now powerless to stop Braithwaite leaving but unable to sign a replacement themselves.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1229675617546883072
Boris has made a deeper, strategic move towards a united Ireland because for all intents and purposes we will be treating the island of Ireland and Great Britain as two separate entities. There will be different regulatory regimes and therefore checks between the two. A bird in the hand, as they say.
This will mean that over time those who want a united Ireland will have facts on the ground on their side which will increasingly come to strengthen their position.
I suspect the next Labour Prime Minister may be someone prepared to do that, but by then Blair will have been out of power for quarter of a century plus.
Cops should have indulged they on Sunday then opened the roads. Common purpose at work.
If you're crap and you have good fortune that rarely works out. Unless someone very patient, who really loves you or your family, wants to do you a lifelong favour.
You have to have a decent level of competence and ability. Good fortune is then about being in the right place at the right time, and influencing the right people, to get that promotion, shot or opportunity to show what you can do and establish your reputation.
And, you have to keep working at it even then. You can't just switch off and go into autopilot or people (eventually) won't buy your products or hire you again.
A bit like the BBC license fee story - the press are reporting that "senior Downing St sources are determined that it will be abolished"... while the PM is reportedly lukewarm on the idea.
"Senior Downing St sources" are apparently running the country now.
Sadly, a reflection of the sympathies of the academics and the politicisation of the police, who would have been more concerned at not "alienating" a certain part of the community.
If the EDL had tried this as part of a stunt to draw attention to how Cambridge colleges are trying to write out key parts of English history in their teachings, for instance, the Rozzers would have swept down quicker than you could say constable.
I cannot and will not condone such disgusting views
As anyone who has suffered a house burglary will be well aware, the Police aren't particularly interested in investigating crimes against property.
(And if you're the victim of fraud, they are more interesting in making you think it will be investigated when it almost certainly won't.)