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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB had held Durham NW then Starmer’s task could have been

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited January 2020

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah but it’s all about north London isn’t it? Last 3 leaders including Starmer.
    To be fair, I don't think they need *many* seats in East Anglia.

    They need some on the London fringe (e.g. Thurrock, majority, er, 11,000) and a few like Ipswich (maj 5,479).

    However the number of seats where Labour is no longer even competitive is perhaps a greater sign of the lack of a voting constituency that would see them win a majority elsewhere.
    Labour also need to win Peterborough and Norwich North and Colchester in East Anglia which are all in the 124 seats they need to gain for a majority (though not Thurrock which is 142nd now).


    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    HYUFD said:
    Remind me what Tony Blair did specifically for the North East?
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    edited January 2020
    @rottenborough

    What happens to the 12 & 5 ?

    Do they have to nominate one of the four people left?

    Are there more nomination's today, as it's suppose to add up to 203 or something.



  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Sanders surges as progressives flock to him over Warren

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/13/sanders-progressives-flock-warren-098065

    Yep. Every Democratic candidate who swings right, especially on the sacred totem of Medicare for All, gets punished by progressives, who then rally to Sanders the eternal purist. If his health holds out, he's got a very good chance of being the nominee.
  • HYUFD said:
    Bit of a daft comment from Dale.

    Labour probably need to win some seats in all regions to win a majority. So you could make the same point if they missed ANY region from the schedule.

    And he could have equally tweeted to say "To win a majority Labour need to win seats in the the North. So naturally the first two places with leadership hustings are... cue drumroll.... Liverpool and Durham".

    Additionally, nobody in history has ever said "I wasn't going to vote Labour... but they had their hustings here in Ipswich several years ago, which is a massive show of confidence in East Anglia". The only point is to offer a reasonable number of hustings which are scattered about in such a way that quite a lot of members can attend.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited January 2020
    This may not be the debate you want, but it's the debate you deserve:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Mg8fDaKN4
    4 years late, but it might happen.
  • @HYUFD

    Will there be another update at 5.30pm for labour leader election?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I suspect labour might be back in the game quicker than many think.

    Looking at the news on huawei, on veterans, on Europe, and the US trade deal, Boris might be in trouble with restive backbenchers sooner rather than later...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    HYUFD said:
    Bit of a daft comment from Dale.

    Labour probably need to win some seats in all regions to win a majority. So you could make the same point if they missed ANY region from the schedule.

    And he could have equally tweeted to say "To win a majority Labour need to win seats in the the North. So naturally the first two places with leadership hustings are... cue drumroll.... Liverpool and Durham".

    Additionally, nobody in history has ever said "I wasn't going to vote Labour... but they had their hustings here in Ipswich several years ago, which is a massive show of confidence in East Anglia". The only point is to offer a reasonable number of hustings which are scattered about in such a way that quite a lot of members can attend.
    Dale does seem to be unable to make anything resembling a cogent point these days.
  • HYUFD said:
    As opposed to Johnson who will have the guts and brass neck to say anything, beautiful or otherwise, even if it is contrary to what he thinks, just so long as it furthers his own personal ambitions.
  • I suspect labour might be back in the game quicker than many think.

    Looking at the news on huawei, on veterans, on Europe, and the US trade deal, Boris might be in trouble with restive backbenchers sooner rather than later...

    Agreed. Most of Johnson's apparent popularity at the recent GE was based on the extreme unpopularity and stupidity of his main opponent.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    @rottenborough

    What happens to the 12 & 5 ?

    Do they have to nominate one of the four people left?

    Are there more nomination's today, as it's suppose to add up to 203 or something.



    There's no law that you have to nominate someone who qualifies, or indeed at all (I'll be surprised if JC nominates anyone).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    HYUFD said:
    21st century socialism is an excellent slogan. It sums up pithily and perfectly what the Labour offering under Starmer or Nandy ought to be. "AI" revolution, green new deal, new forms of ownership and truly devolved democratic control. No room in this for old fossils in upstairs rooms of pubs with their misty-eyed nostalgia for Castro and the Austin Allegro.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    kinabalu said:

    Pidcock was a highly divisive and factional MP. As leader she could only have made the split in the party even worse than it was under Corbyn. And in an age of fluid political allegiances, her much quoted remark that she could never be friends with a Tory summed marked her out as an extremist to her electorate. The swing of over 10% against her was even worse when you consider that she should have had an incumbency advantage as a newly elected MP in 2017.

    Too much is made of this IMO. It reminds me a little of the fuss about Andy Murray's "support anybody against England" remark.
    No, there's a difference between "I don't want your football team to win" and I would never be friends with you". Andy Murray didn't say he could never be friends with anyine English, did he?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    I suspect labour might be back in the game quicker than many think.

    Looking at the news on huawei, on veterans, on Europe, and the US trade deal, Boris might be in trouble with restive backbenchers sooner rather than later...

    If I remember correctly, the number of Conservative MPs in October 2019 hit a low of 291, a majority of -68. Two months later, that number became 365, a majority of 80.

    Any 'restive' backbenchers need to sit down, and, in the nicest possible way, shut the **** up.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Sanders surges as progressives flock to him over Warren

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/13/sanders-progressives-flock-warren-098065

    Yep. Every Democratic candidate who swings right, especially on the sacred totem of Medicare for All, gets punished by progressives, who then rally to Sanders the eternal purist. If his health holds out, he's got a very good chance of being the nominee.
    As an outsider I've never been convinced that Warren was genuinely left-wing. Whether a genuinely left-wing candidate can win vs Trump is an interesting question, though.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    kinabalu said:

    Pidcock was a highly divisive and factional MP. As leader she could only have made the split in the party even worse than it was under Corbyn. And in an age of fluid political allegiances, her much quoted remark that she could never be friends with a Tory summed marked her out as an extremist to her electorate. The swing of over 10% against her was even worse when you consider that she should have had an incumbency advantage as a newly elected MP in 2017.

    Too much is made of this IMO. It reminds me a little of the fuss about Andy Murray's "support anybody against England" remark.
    You may be right, but Andy Murray isn't a valid comparison. He was having a bit of fun with Tim Henman, as any one of us does with fans of rival teams. Any criticism of him whatsoever for that was absurd.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    I suspect labour might be back in the game quicker than many think.

    Looking at the news on huawei, on veterans, on Europe, and the US trade deal, Boris might be in trouble with restive backbenchers sooner rather than later...

    It remains to be seen.

    Anyone but Long-Bailey would be a good start although that is a big ask.The rest is down to Boris. I thought his Stormont speech was somewhat rambling, however voters seem to like that sort of thing.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Apart from the the YouGov poll of Labour members, the only other polling we have that gives an indication of the outcome of the Labour leadership contest is I believe that of late December published by BMG.

    https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/labour-leadership/

    They asked the public who they would most like to replace Corbyn, from a list of 12 candidates. The answers from 2019 Labour voters only are as follows:

    Starmer 59
    Phillips 41
    Nandy 18
    RLB 12
    Other named non-Corbynites 77 (Thornberry, Ashworth, Cooper, Lammy)
    Other named Corbynites 38 (Rayner, Gardiner, Burgon, Lewis)
    Other or NOTA 25
    Dont Know 113

    That's a ratio of more than 3 to 1 for non-Corbynites over Corbynites so it tends to reinforce the result of the YouGov Labour members poll. The difference is too stark to conclude anything but that the far left was trailing badly, even after allowing for members to be more in the Corbyn camp than Labour voters generally. I can't see that anything has happened over the past 3 weeks to change that.


  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    21st century socialism is an excellent slogan. It sums up pithily and perfectly what the Labour offering under Starmer or Nandy ought to be. "AI" revolution, green new deal, new forms of ownership and truly devolved democratic control. No room in this for old fossils in upstairs rooms of pubs with their misty-eyed nostalgia for Castro and the Austin Allegro.
    Not sure on that one. 21st century socialism sounds as oxymoronic as compassionate fascism.

    Socialism is a highly outdated and discredited creed. It is a word that Labour politicians would best remember was greatly favoured by the team that brought them the worst ever defeat against a highly flawed and divided Tory Party. They should quietly drop it again.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bedford and Canterbury show that Labour don't need to be afraid of the east and the south east. There are plenty of commuter towns filling up with professional emigrés from London. They may well be a lot easier to take or retake than northern towns.
  • @rottenborough

    What happens to the 12 & 5 ?

    Do they have to nominate one of the four people left?

    Are there more nomination's today, as it's suppose to add up to 203 or something.



    There's no law that you have to nominate someone who qualifies, or indeed at all (I'll be surprised if JC nominates anyone).
    Fair enough, thanks for clearing it up.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    Pidcock was a highly divisive and factional MP. As leader she could only have made the split in the party even worse than it was under Corbyn. And in an age of fluid political allegiances, her much quoted remark that she could never be friends with a Tory summed marked her out as an extremist to her electorate. The swing of over 10% against her was even worse when you consider that she should have had an incumbency advantage as a newly elected MP in 2017.

    Too much is made of this IMO. It reminds me a little of the fuss about Andy Murray's "support anybody against England" remark.
    Stu is as Stu does... :wink:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kinabalu said:

    Pidcock was a highly divisive and factional MP. As leader she could only have made the split in the party even worse than it was under Corbyn. And in an age of fluid political allegiances, her much quoted remark that she could never be friends with a Tory summed marked her out as an extremist to her electorate. The swing of over 10% against her was even worse when you consider that she should have had an incumbency advantage as a newly elected MP in 2017.

    Too much is made of this IMO. It reminds me a little of the fuss about Andy Murray's "support anybody against England" remark.
    Indeed. There is much that marks Pidcock as an extremist, chiefly the fact that every policy position of hers is compatible with her being a raging Trot.

    The comment about being friends with a Tory was small beer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    kicorse said:

    You may be right, but Andy Murray isn't a valid comparison. He was having a bit of fun with Tim Henman, as any one of us does with fans of rival teams. Any criticism of him whatsoever for that was absurd.

    No, you're right. I didn't mean that it's objectively an equivalent remark. Just that the Pidcock thing reminds me a little of it in the sense of people (and I sense many of them the same people) really rather going to town with it and failing to show any signs of letting it drop after a decent period.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Bedford and Canterbury show that Labour don't need to be afraid of the east and the south east. There are plenty of commuter towns filling up with professional emigrés from London. They may well be a lot easier to take or retake than northern towns.

    Students and minorities.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    You may be right, but Andy Murray isn't a valid comparison. He was having a bit of fun with Tim Henman, as any one of us does with fans of rival teams. Any criticism of him whatsoever for that was absurd.

    No, you're right. I didn't mean that it's objectively an equivalent remark. Just that the Pidcock thing reminds me a little of it in the sense of people (and I sense many of them the same people) really rather going to town with it and failing to show any signs of letting it drop after a decent period.
    You mean the way one side of politics continues to blame everything on Thatcher and digs up old Boris articles from decades ago? The left never lets _anything_ drop, so why should we?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Cookie said:

    No, there's a difference between "I don't want your football team to win" and I would never be friends with you". Andy Murray didn't say he could never be friends with anyine English, did he?

    There is a difference, yes. But there is also a similarity (to me at least) in the OTTness and prolonged lifespan of the reaction.


  • Mark Allen is a very fair price.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RLB = Jo Swinson
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2020
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bravo Boris. Absolutely right

    I do hope that lefty c*nt Geo Eaton, who hounded Sir Roger to an early grave, is getting his just deserts on social media
    Celebrating setting up an elderly, cancer ridden man by posing with champers and posting it all over social media... what a guy!

    Not to mention...

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1116017433008070656
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2020

    Apart from the the YouGov poll of Labour members, the only other polling we have that gives an indication of the outcome of the Labour leadership contest is I believe that of late December published by BMG.

    https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/labour-leadership/

    They asked the public who they would most like to replace Corbyn, from a list of 12 candidates. The answers from 2019 Labour voters only are as follows:

    Starmer 59
    Phillips 41
    Nandy 18
    RLB 12
    Other named non-Corbynites 77 (Thornberry, Ashworth, Cooper, Lammy)
    Other named Corbynites 38 (Rayner, Gardiner, Burgon, Lewis)
    Other or NOTA 25
    Dont Know 113

    That's a ratio of more than 3 to 1 for non-Corbynites over Corbynites so it tends to reinforce the result of the YouGov Labour members poll. The difference is too stark to conclude anything but that the far left was trailing badly, even after allowing for members to be more in the Corbyn camp than Labour voters generally. I can't see that anything has happened over the past 3 weeks to change that.

    Deltapoll did a poll on the recognition of the candidates. Only 1 in 5 Labour voters recognised Starmer, lower even than the average of the public.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/labour-leadership-candidates

    Do not expect even many of those who have a vote in this election to be that familiar with any of the candidates. Remember at this stage in 2015 Corbyn was preferenced by only a handful of people in polls of leadership contenders.

    It is unsurprising the narrative has swung behind Starmer, but when the voters get around to make their decision and look at the candidates don't be surprised if they're not interested in the anointed favourite.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    TGOHF666 said:
    One less opportunity to go fully Soviet, for the moment anyway.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Rumours that Burgon has made it. Also:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1216720273946349569
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    No, there's a difference between "I don't want your football team to win" and I would never be friends with you". Andy Murray didn't say he could never be friends with anyine English, did he?

    There is a difference, yes. But there is also a similarity (to me at least) in the OTTness and prolonged lifespan of the reaction.
    I apologise for contributing to the longevity of the reaction. Unfortunately it was new to me, and I didn't know how much people had been going on about it.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:
    Bravo Boris. Absolutely right

    I do hope that lefty c*nt Geo Eaton, who hounded Sir Roger to an early grave, is getting his just deserts on social media
    Celebrating setting up an elderly, cancer ridden man by posing with champers and posting it all over social media... what a guy!

    Not to mention...

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1116017433008070656
    Ugh!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    You may be right, but Andy Murray isn't a valid comparison. He was having a bit of fun with Tim Henman, as any one of us does with fans of rival teams. Any criticism of him whatsoever for that was absurd.

    No, you're right. I didn't mean that it's objectively an equivalent remark. Just that the Pidcock thing reminds me a little of it in the sense of people (and I sense many of them the same people) really rather going to town with it and failing to show any signs of letting it drop after a decent period.
    Momentum has acted as a divisive faction within the Labour Party and Pidcock has been one of their most prominent cheerleaders in that. The comment just sums her up her divisiveness generally, whether it be towards members of her own party or members of the general public that MPs should really have been trying to court rather than going out of their way to offend.

    As for letting it drop, I am quite happy to if you stop singing her praises.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Clive Lewis has pulled out. The fact that he has done so means that his nominees (including him) now have 30 mins to nominate another candidate. I don't think that will help Thornberry.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    You may be right, but Andy Murray isn't a valid comparison. He was having a bit of fun with Tim Henman, as any one of us does with fans of rival teams. Any criticism of him whatsoever for that was absurd.

    No, you're right. I didn't mean that it's objectively an equivalent remark. Just that the Pidcock thing reminds me a little of it in the sense of people (and I sense many of them the same people) really rather going to town with it and failing to show any signs of letting it drop after a decent period.
    Momentum has acted as a divisive faction within the Labour Party and Pidcock has been one of their most prominent cheerleaders in that. The comment just sums her up her divisiveness generally, whether it be towards members of her own party or members of the general public that MPs should really have been trying to court rather than going out of their way to offend.

    As for letting it drop, I am quite happy to if you stop singing her praises.
    Divisive? Isn't the whole Jeremy idea to bring people together?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Not sure on that one. 21st century socialism sounds as oxymoronic as compassionate fascism.

    Socialism is a highly outdated and discredited creed. It is a word that Labour politicians would best remember was greatly favoured by the team that brought them the worst ever defeat against a highly flawed and divided Tory Party. They should quietly drop it again.

    The single biggest determinant of life outcome is birth circumstances. This has always been true and will forever be true. Of all the roles of government the most important is to enact policy which mitigates against this. Makes it less true than it otherwise would be - even though still true. Such policy to reflect the times we live in not times gone by. This is "socialism" and as such it will never be outdated.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    IshmaelZ said:

    RLB = Jo Swinson

    Prime Minister RLB

    No, it doesn't get any better does it?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Personally , I am sorry to see Butler and Burgon reach the 22 nomination threahold. Neither would be any good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    So, will Thornberry get the "aw, bless...." nominations to get through in the final hour?

    Because that worked out so well at broadening the field when they did it for Corbyn....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kinabalu said:

    Not sure on that one. 21st century socialism sounds as oxymoronic as compassionate fascism.

    Socialism is a highly outdated and discredited creed. It is a word that Labour politicians would best remember was greatly favoured by the team that brought them the worst ever defeat against a highly flawed and divided Tory Party. They should quietly drop it again.

    The single biggest determinant of life outcome is birth circumstances. This has always been true and will forever be true. Of all the roles of government the most important is to enact policy which mitigates against this. Makes it less true than it otherwise would be - even though still true. Such policy to reflect the times we live in not times gone by. This is "socialism" and as such it will never be outdated.
    Removal of a child from their parents and into the loving arms of a state nursery then school seems the logical way to ensure absolute fairness. Not sure that would lead to the most well-adjusted generation, however.
  • testing
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Clive Lewis has pulled out. The fact that he has done so means that his nominees (including him) now have 30 mins to nominate another candidate. I don't think that will help Thornberry.

    Although she's now up to 21 with 15 minutes left to get 1 more.

    I hope she doesn't, the more vying for CLP nominations, the less we are likely to get on the ballot paper. It might be just a choice between Starmer and RLB.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    The Burgon is confirmed at 22 after a day of begging and cajoling.
    https://labour.org.uk/people/leadership-2020-nominations/deputy-leadership-2020/
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Anorak said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not sure on that one. 21st century socialism sounds as oxymoronic as compassionate fascism.

    Socialism is a highly outdated and discredited creed. It is a word that Labour politicians would best remember was greatly favoured by the team that brought them the worst ever defeat against a highly flawed and divided Tory Party. They should quietly drop it again.

    The single biggest determinant of life outcome is birth circumstances. This has always been true and will forever be true. Of all the roles of government the most important is to enact policy which mitigates against this. Makes it less true than it otherwise would be - even though still true. Such policy to reflect the times we live in not times gone by. This is "socialism" and as such it will never be outdated.
    Removal of a child from their parents and into the loving arms of a state nursery then school seems the logical way to ensure absolute fairness. Not sure that would lead to the most well-adjusted generation, however.
    Many parents know that they can do better for their children which is why the loss of Surestart is such a big problem. Now by the time the children reach school some problems are set in.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Thornberry and Butler clearly did a deal to nominate each other.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Interesting that Cooper has not only not run for Leader but not nominated anyone either.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Quincel said:

    Interesting that Cooper has not only not run for Leader but not nominated anyone either.

    She should have nominated RLB.
  • So, will Thornberry get the "aw, bless...." nominations to get through in the final hour?

    Because that worked out so well at broadening the field when they did it for Corbyn....

    I remember the day well

    Best bet, Corbyn 80/1
    Worst bet, lay Corbyn, 140/1

    (I think I lost a fiver, no violins required!)
  • Thornberry through
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Quincel said:

    Interesting that Cooper has not only not run for Leader but not nominated anyone either.

    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1216717935227625473
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    TGOHF666 said:
    They will split the feminist vote.

    Although having female leaders is not a panacea, sure there is Thatcher but there is also May.
    Internationally the sample is large enough to say there is no electoral benefit to having a female party leader.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Thornberry still on 21 with 2 minutes to go. If I was running the Labour site I'd not update it until 2:40pm even if more people nominated just for the drama, but that may not be their view.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Quincel said:

    Interesting that Cooper has not only not run for Leader but not nominated anyone either.

    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1216717935227625473
    Apologies, the Wikipedia list either missed her or I did.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    So, will Thornberry get the "aw, bless...." nominations to get through in the final hour?

    Because that worked out so well at broadening the field when they did it for Corbyn....

    I remember the day well

    Best bet, Corbyn 80/1
    Worst bet, lay Corbyn, 140/1

    (I think I lost a fiver, no violins required!)
    I made a grand on Corbyn...

    ...by being quick when the YouGov members poll came out getting on at evens. Proof that not all good bets need to be smart bets.
  • NEW: Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips, Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry are through the first stage. Rosena Allin Khan, Richard Burgon, Dawn Butler, Ian Murray, Angela Rayner have made it through for deputy. From Wednesday, they'll be seeking CLP/affiliate noms.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    marke0903 said:

    Thornberry through

    Labour chasing the white van man vote?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Interesting that Cooper has not only not run for Leader but not nominated anyone either.

    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1216717935227625473
    Apologies, the Wikipedia list either missed her or I did.
    To be fair her tweet only appeared 45 minutes ago.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Interesting how Jess Phillips raced to the line and stopped dead, whereas RLB has had a constant if slow dribble of noms, ending up with a much higher number. Perhaps to do with the is-he-isn't-he shenanigans around Lavery. The 'true socialists' were keeping their powder dry.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    justin124 said:

    Personally , I am sorry to see Butler and Burgon reach the 22 nomination threahold. Neither would be any good.

    Not all of them are going to get to the members though.....
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    marke0903 said:

    Thornberry through

    Bad news for Nandy and Phillips. The chances of either of them getting on the ballot paper after securing enough CLP nominations must now be appreciably less.
  • Anorak said:

    Interesting how Jess Phillips raced to the line and stopped dead, whereas RLB has had a constant if slow dribble of noms, ending up with a much higher number. Perhaps to do with the is-he-isn't-he shenanigans around Lavery. The 'true socialists' were keeping their powder dry.

    RLB has added most of her "extra" in the last 24 hours.

    Which suggests to me they were keeping an eye on the field.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    On thread, just a moment to think how sick as a parrot Pidcock must be feeling about now....

    *singing*

    "Should have been me........"
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    justin124 said:

    Personally , I am sorry to see Butler and Burgon reach the 22 nomination threahold. Neither would be any good.

    Not all of them are going to get to the members though.....
    Be interested to see who Unite plump for, in the deputy contest.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    marke0903 said:

    Thornberry through

    Bad news for Nandy and Phillips. The chances of either of them getting on the ballot paper after securing enough CLP nominations must now be appreciably less.
    Looking like Starmer and Long-Face. Becky coming up on the rails to guarantee another ten years of Boris?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    marke0903 said:

    Thornberry through

    Bad news for Nandy and Phillips. The chances of either of them getting on the ballot paper after securing enough CLP nominations must now be appreciably less.
    Be a poor show if Nandy doesn't get through, given she is the only BAME representative remaining, and the amount of times I've heard that the broadest possible selection of candidates must be put to the members.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    Quincel said:

    Quincel said:

    Interesting that Cooper has not only not run for Leader but not nominated anyone either.

    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1216717935227625473
    Apologies, the Wikipedia list either missed her or I did.
    The adults in the room seem to be agreeing on Starmer/Rayner.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anorak said:

    Interesting how Jess Phillips raced to the line and stopped dead, whereas RLB has had a constant if slow dribble of noms, ending up with a much higher number. Perhaps to do with the is-he-isn't-he shenanigans around Lavery. The 'true socialists' were keeping their powder dry.

    I heard that from someone last week... RLB will gain ground as the contest goes on
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    edited January 2020


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Momentum has acted as a divisive faction within the Labour Party and Pidcock has been one of their most prominent cheerleaders in that. The comment just sums her up her divisiveness generally, whether it be towards members of her own party or members of the general public that MPs should really have been trying to court rather than going out of their way to offend.

    As for letting it drop, I am quite happy to if you stop singing her praises.

    Fine. I won't mention her again until she is next validly in the news.

    Apart from on this thread which (rather like me) is devoted to her.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    isam said:

    Anorak said:

    Interesting how Jess Phillips raced to the line and stopped dead, whereas RLB has had a constant if slow dribble of noms, ending up with a much higher number. Perhaps to do with the is-he-isn't-he shenanigans around Lavery. The 'true socialists' were keeping their powder dry.

    I heard that from someone last week... RLB will gain ground as the contest goes on
    I think that's right, but she will have to up her activity and profile a lot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    kicorse said:

    I apologise for contributing to the longevity of the reaction. Unfortunately it was new to me, and I didn't know how much people had been going on about it.

    No problem at all. But, yes, they have been "going on about it" forever. Whenever Pidcock is mentioned that remark of hers - "I won't be friends with a tory" - crops up with the same inevitability as the featured couple on Escape To The Country saying that they don't want a separate dining room ,they want a large kitchen diner which will be the "heart of the home" where everyone can sit and chat.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    I think that confirms Chris Williamson is a piece of work and the Labour party is better off without him.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    I apologise for contributing to the longevity of the reaction. Unfortunately it was new to me, and I didn't know how much people had been going on about it.

    No problem at all. But, yes, they have been "going on about it" forever. Whenever Pidcock is mentioned that remark of hers - "I won't be friends with a tory" - crops up with the same inevitability as the featured couple on Escape To The Country saying that they don't want a separate dining room ,they want a large kitchen diner which will be the "heart of the home" where everyone can sit and chat.
    Or indeed The Sainted Margaret's no such thing as society quote taken out of context as it usually is by leftist types; I'm delighted we can put that behind us and no longer use it to prove any kind of point.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    Anorak said:

    Interesting how Jess Phillips raced to the line and stopped dead, whereas RLB has had a constant if slow dribble of noms, ending up with a much higher number. Perhaps to do with the is-he-isn't-he shenanigans around Lavery. The 'true socialists' were keeping their powder dry.

    I heard that from someone last week... RLB will gain ground as the contest goes on
    I think that's right, but she will have to up her activity and profile a lot.
    The more Labour members see her, the more they will like her. The more normal people see her the more they will dislike her.
  • Anorak said:

    Interesting how Jess Phillips raced to the line and stopped dead, whereas RLB has had a constant if slow dribble of noms, ending up with a much higher number. Perhaps to do with the is-he-isn't-he shenanigans around Lavery. The 'true socialists' were keeping their powder dry.

    I think because Phillips is quite a distinctive backbench choice, who was very openly critical of Corbyn, it was probably fairly obvious to her who her MP supporters were going in.

    With RLB, she is one of a number of fairly loyal frontbenchers who could have a shot at it. MPs looking for that kind of candidate probably wanted to see who came forward and how the numbers looked before committing to one of them. Some probably also expected to be nominating Pidcock a few weeks ago.

    I suspect also that Phillips' focus moved pretty firmly to CLP nominations the moment she'd got the required number of MPs on board (as I assume she'll struggle with unions). This is a major hurdle for Phillips, whereas I would guess RLB is safer in that respect and will be able to get in via the unions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    You mean the way one side of politics continues to blame everything on Thatcher and digs up old Boris articles from decades ago? The left never lets _anything_ drop, so why should we?

    Apols for delay in replying. Had to get to Waitrose before Storm Brendan.

    This could one day be an apt comparison - when Pidcock has won elections and been PM for a decade and has transformed Britain according to her core beliefs her "never friends with a tory" remark can take its rightful place with such chestnuts as "no such thing as society" - but right now it really isn't.
  • TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    I apologise for contributing to the longevity of the reaction. Unfortunately it was new to me, and I didn't know how much people had been going on about it.

    No problem at all. But, yes, they have been "going on about it" forever. Whenever Pidcock is mentioned that remark of hers - "I won't be friends with a tory" - crops up with the same inevitability as the featured couple on Escape To The Country saying that they don't want a separate dining room ,they want a large kitchen diner which will be the "heart of the home" where everyone can sit and chat.
    Or indeed The Sainted Margaret's no such thing as society quote taken out of context as it usually is by leftist types; I'm delighted we can put that behind us and no longer use it to prove any kind of point.
    What context was it it taken out of as a matter of interest?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Anorak said:

    Removal of a child from their parents and into the loving arms of a state nursery then school seems the logical way to ensure absolute fairness. Not sure that would lead to the most well-adjusted generation, however.

    Given the outrage at the "class war" notion of private schools being not charities, I would give this proposal very little chance indeed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    On thread, just a moment to think how sick as a parrot Pidcock must be feeling about now....

    *singing*

    "Should have been me........"

    I have written a poem called Lament For Laura and if this provocation continues I will be posting it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2020
    Not sure if this has been noted before, but it's potentially very significant: the CLP nomination process will be done by AV:

    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/LE20-Guidelines-for-CLP-Nomination-Meetings.pdf
  • That's a lot of stoats that had to die for one weasel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    Good to see another eco-warrior in the House of Lords. :smiley:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Just goes to prove any billionaire loser can fight back against the odds to achieve greatness.

    Warms the cockles....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770

    That's a lot of stoats that had to die for one weasel.
    :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    eek said:

    I think that confirms Chris Williamson is a piece of work and the Labour party is better off without him.
    If the winning leader has signed up to the list of points that Williamson is moaning about there is no way back for him.

    He'll have to start his own party. I'm sure thousands will flock to his standard.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020

    Indeed. There is much that marks Pidcock as an extremist, chiefly the fact that every policy position of hers is compatible with her being a raging Trot.

    The comment about being friends with a Tory was small beer.

    I googled "Pidcock raging Trot" and nothing came up other than the (surprising?) fact that she opposes self ID for transgender women.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    He says that like it would be a bad thing...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    edited January 2020

    He says that like it would be a bad thing...
    If all the anti-semites left voluntarily, it saves Starmer a job.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited January 2020

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    I apologise for contributing to the longevity of the reaction. Unfortunately it was new to me, and I didn't know how much people had been going on about it.

    No problem at all. But, yes, they have been "going on about it" forever. Whenever Pidcock is mentioned that remark of hers - "I won't be friends with a tory" - crops up with the same inevitability as the featured couple on Escape To The Country saying that they don't want a separate dining room ,they want a large kitchen diner which will be the "heart of the home" where everyone can sit and chat.
    Or indeed The Sainted Margaret's no such thing as society quote taken out of context as it usually is by leftist types; I'm delighted we can put that behind us and no longer use it to prove any kind of point.
    What context was it it taken out of as a matter of interest?
    “they never quoted the rest. I went on to say: There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It’s our duty to look after ourselves and then to look after our neighbour. My meaning, clear at the time but subsequently distorted beyond recognition, was that society was not an abstraction, separate from the men and women who composed it, but a living structure of individuals, families, neighbours and voluntary associations.“

    https://iea.org.uk/blog/there-is-no-such-thing-as-society
This discussion has been closed.