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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at when Boris Johnson’s tenure as Conservative Party leader will end
Recent history suggests Boris Johnson will not see out a full term.
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There are always unexpected scandals, and it is just about possible that the EU negotiations will go catastrophically badly, but I'd be most tempted by the post-2024 date, if I had any spare cash to lock up for half a decade or longer.
Basically, I'm not tempted by those odds.
But if he survives this year, it seems pretty likely he'll make it to the next election.
More seriously, the other imponderable is how far his lust for power will outweigh his greed. Being PM is not lucrative. Being an ex-PM on the chatshow and lecture circuits undoubtedly would be.
Personally, I don’t think he’ll last until 2024, and I would guess he will walk in 2023. But given he has spent the last year totally confounding every prediction I could easily be wrong.
Even if Brexit is a complete fuck up or we have a recession that isn't going to be enough as his team will shitpost their way out of it using a three word slogan that comprises of the imperative form of a separable verb and a noun. MAKE MONEY GOOD.
Johnson's fat pussy is welded to the seat behind the desk in No. 10 for the foreseeable.
Corbyn claimed to oppose Israel and love Jews, although I don’t think he was widely believed. Orban is an unusual example of somebody who hates Jews and loves Israel.
A financial scandal would perhaps be different. Politically, even a recession brought on by Brexit is survivable, the problem may be a sense of betrayal when the fishermen or other core group get chucked under the bus. Johnson does have a untrustworthiness that could get him into that sort of mess. Then there is getting involved in another unpopular Mid East war.
The Tories are ruthless at getting rid of leaders that are a liability, and far more willing to do so than Labour He simply has too much credit in the bank to get chucked out this year, though his ratings with the public may tank.
Sources told the Herald on Sunday that the outcome was ‘utterly humiliating’, ‘a complete mess’ and showed ‘ a complete loss of authority’ for Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard.
Miles Briggs, the Conservative MSP said... “They are all over the place when it comes to Scotland’s place in the Union.“
Willie Rennie... “The Liberal Democrats are clear: we are opposed to independence. Who knows what Labour’s position is.”
(Herald on Sunday £)
Richard Leonard is still the shortest priced Unionist to be next FM, at 12/1 (Shadsy). I find it very hard to believe that he’ll survive as SLab leader until May 2021.
Next Scottish First Minister (Ladbrokes)
Derek Mackay (SNP) 3/1
Kate Forbes (SNP) 8/1
Angus Robertson (SNP) 10/1
Keith Brown (SNP) 12/1
Richard Leonard (Lab) 12/1
John Swinney (SNP) 12/1
Mhairi Black (SNP) 16/1
Shona Robison (SNP) 16/1
Mike Russell (SNP) 16/1
Humza Yousaf (SNP) 16/1
It’ll be interesting to see how Shadsy prices Jackson Carlaw (next Con leader?) in this market. A lot will depend on how conciliatory Carlaw is towards Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats, both deeply bruised and hurt by their treatment from the Conservatives over the last five years. Forgive & forget is profoundly unlikely.
Iran plane crash: Britain condemns Tehran's arrest of UK ambassador
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51077897
Do they actually WANT a full war? Or are they just panicking and collapsing in an undignified heap?
“
Apparently not. If Sir Keir wins, the party that harangues us about the importance of diversity will have selected its past three leaders from within the same four square miles of North London.”
So right now one of the most likely causes of a Boris departure is that he has had enough.
When his political capital is spent, his demise could be swift. He has made a lot of enemies and does not have the confidence of the full Conservative tribe.
Bozo to leave Downing Street in 2021
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/call-the-election-game-over-for-varadkar-as-ff-td-set-to-vote-no-confidence-in-harris-38854090.html
The assertions on here about what the Conservative Party thinks are invariably utterly adrift of reality.
https://twitter.com/stubai1912/status/1216050528192466944?s=21
Guaranteed 67% return on investment in less than five years. You’d be a fool not to.
getting worried Harry, no sign of the WATP lot there
https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1215930857317437440?s=21
There are times when I really want to share something, or just unload some political frustration.
On this occasion:
RLB rocked up in The Potteries to find out why we lost. Reporter asks people in the street and they all say Corbyn. RLB asks a room full of Momentum loons and comes away saying it was the Brexit policy.
I suppose she really means "Starmer's Brexit Policy'.
Standard unionist fodder.
Nobody cares where Boris puts his willy or how many children he has. After all we now have a so called leading Liberal Democrat admitting she has sex with kitchen utensils (what I have heard many ordinary people decipher her "pansexual" remark to mean).
The FTPA will go shortly and Boris will call the next GE when he is well ahead of Labour or SDP Mark II in the polls and then he can go when he feels like it, in 2028 or thereafter.
The last Tory PM with a large majority was Margaret Thatcher and her downfall began when she started to cave in to the EU and the liberal London elite which lost her the support of the red working class who put her in in 1979 and kept her there in 1983 and 1987. John Major, David Cameron and Theresa May all surrendered to the EU and paid the price.
With a stable majority there's little reason for Johnson not to serve a full term.
😁
https://twitter.com/theredroar/status/1216290144812195841?s=21
RLB also gets a Sunday Times front-page fact-check kicking about working "as a lawyer for the NHS for ten years".
Deep, deep cover.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gazzman5/status/1216242762837843968/photo/1
Otherwise she is just saying vote for me, more of the same, lose again next time.
I suppose that appeals to that part of the membership who aren't interested in forming a government.
Bozo will dip his wick somewhere or other. She'll then walk out.
Next year some scandal or other will blow up in his face and he'll be forced to resign.
Remember, these predictions come from the person who in October was saying that we would be staying in the EU!
I live further away from London than most people on here but yet the “London bubble” bullsh*t persists.
Subject to a scandal which he can't avoid or evade, Boris Johnson is safe until he becomes (or appears to have become) a loser.
As long as he is a winner, he is completely safe.
Let's not forget the Conservative Parliamentary Party toppled a woman who had won them three successive GE victories and had been PM for eleven years simply because they were 10 points behind in the polls and the backbenchers in marginal seats didn't want to lose their jobs.
For all the adulation Boris enjoys now, IF (or probably when) the polls turn against him and assuming there is a more popular alternative within the Party (a Heseltine or even Major-type figure), he will be gone.
This raises the more interesting question as to whether 12/12 was a vote for Boris Johnson rather than for the Conservative Party. How many of those in the new northern Tory seats are actually Boris supporters rather than Tories?
Whether the electorate get to dispense with Boris's services or whether the Conservative MPs do it is another question.
If the choice was today I'd vote Starmer. But still keeping my mind open for the debate(s).
Boris is popular because he has never had to make a real unpopular decision. That time will come at some point and then who knows how it will play out.
Mrs Stodge is furious over the proposed IR35 tax changes which are going to make her working life as a Contractor much harder.
There will be a drip-drip of decisions which will erode the 12/12 Conservative voting coalition. Decisions on HS2 and the third runway at LHR are obvious areas where there will be a lot of unhappy people whatever is decided.
Boris may think he can please all of the people all of the time - Cummings will tell him he only has to please some of the people (say 40%) all of the time.
I'm a Leaver, after all.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1216292525042012162?s=20
Everyone is aware of his colourful personal life and the basic trade deal for goods he agrees in December is unlikely to do much to really concern the ERG
Welcome to the incredibly depressing world-view of the liberal left. The only problem is that it isn’t true. Compare and contrast this bleak picture of Britain with the evidence.
As every study of Brexit has shown, the British voted this way not because of white supremacism, to kick out immigrants or to return to splendid isolation.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/goodbye-little-england-we-are-positively-happy-0hk3sgd8c
The quote from the partner at the bottom of the article speaks the truth.
Every Prime Minister needs a willy?
"So, Leave voter, did you vote for Brexit because you like the idea of Britain as a predominantly white anglo nation, superior to others, that is very hard for foreign migrants to get into? Or was it all about sovereignty and making our own laws?"
Lab 202
LD 11