politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB leadership election

Starmer takes lead in race to become new Labour leader – poll https://t.co/DH2rmYGGlM

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

First like Starmer.

TheGreenMachine

2nd like the DUP every time from now onwards.

Quincel

Nandy now out to 60 on Betfair! That seems a bit harsh. It's one poll and a long way to go.

TheGreenMachine

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Starmer.

I hope your not eating humble pie in a couple of months.

TGOHF666

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

WhisperingOracle

Almost the only main candidate acceptable to both the right and left of the party, and now with the combined momentum of both this poll and that interesting poll of Tory supporters mentioned earlier, too, you'd have to think he's overwhelmingly the favourite at this stage.

TGOHF666

RLB over 5s now.

MikeSmithson

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.

SouthamObserver

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

WhisperingOracle

MikeSmithson said:

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.

Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.

TGOHF666

MikeSmithson said:

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.

To be fair the LDs finally got a female leader and it didn’t go so well. Maybe Labour are correct to be cautious.

TGOHF666

WhisperingOracle said:

Almost the only main candidate acceptable to both the right and left of the party, and now with the combined momentum of both this poll and that interesting poll of Tory supporters mentioned earlier, too, you'd have to think he's overwhelmingly the favourite at this stage.

I’m no Labour fan but not having a contest seems a terrible idea.

Alistair

Well fuck, I had a positive Cashout value on this market this morning, came within a couple of seconds of pushing the button and did not.

Alistair

So is this explicitly memebers? What about the equivalent of the 3 quid Momentum and Tory entryist?

rottenborough

WhisperingOracle said:

MikeSmithson said:

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.

Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.

Far more importantly, he passes the close your eyes and imagine him walking into Downing Street test.

Very difficult to believe this poll reflects the reality. Surely Labour members haven't woken up to reality this quickly?

rottenborough

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

Alistair

rottenborough said:

WhisperingOracle said:

MikeSmithson said:

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.

Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.

Far more importantly, he passes the close your eyes and imagine him walking into Downing Street test.

Very difficult to believe this poll reflects the reality. Surely Labour members haven't woken up to reality this quickly?

Has there been any member polling over the last 2 years on Corbyn or potential successors?

HYUFD

Looks like it is Starmer's to lose then and after 4 successive general election defeats Labour members are finally ready to elect a more centrist leader (even if a dull one). Should at least give the Tories more of a contest if indeed they do but still a long way to go and would not rule out Long Bailey yet

MikeSmithson

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

WhisperingOracle said:

MikeSmithson said:

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.

Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.

Far more importantly, he passes the close your eyes and imagine him walking into Downing Street test.

Very difficult to believe this poll reflects the reality. Surely Labour members haven't woken up to reality this quickly?

Has there been any member polling over the last 2 years on Corbyn or potential successors?

There was a poll in the summer in which Starmer came out very well

rottenborough

Quincel said:

Nandy now out to 60 on Betfair! That seems a bit harsh. It's one poll and a long way to go.

I've taken a nibble on her at 30.

Foxy

TGOHF666 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Almost the only main candidate acceptable to both the right and left of the party, and now with the combined momentum of both this poll and that interesting poll of Tory supporters mentioned earlier, too, you'd have to think he's overwhelmingly the favourite at this stage.

I’m no Labour fan but not having a contest seems a terrible idea.

It is indeed. Ideas need thrashing out.

We don't really know the runners and riders yet though.

Starmer may well be good against Johnson, not sure about the next GE

WhisperingOracle

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Starmer has been a partial, but very much not complete, endorser of Corbyn, while hinting always at a more pragmatic position, and at the risk of repeating myself, in the same way the Left wouldn't remove Ed Miliband for the same reason, I don't think they could remove Starmer either.

Jonathan

Intriguing.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/iamhamesh/status/1212504116909531141

Quincel

Interesting comparison with a members poll in May 2015. At that time, like now, candidates had not yet been chosen.

Corbyn wasn't even polled. But in fairness, the other 3 candidates were and the poll got them in the 'right' order. The poll had Burnham leading, then Cooper, then Kendall. Also had some other people in between them who never made it to nominations; most notably Chukka who was 2nd.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-will-win-labour-leadership-election-its-little-early-tell

Alistair

My only hope on this market is that RLB withdrawals in favour of Lavery and I can lay of my speculative bet on him for a decent repair of the damage.

NickPalmer

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

No, There's a good analysis here;

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.

Stocky

Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

No, There's a good analysis here;

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.

He’ll get them in London alone.

rottenborough

Photo du jour

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1212505305449410560

HYUFD

Starmer leads Long Bailey amongst Labour members of every age and every gender and every region and amongst both middle and working class members.

Labour Party members who voted Leave back Long Bailey though but Remainers overwhelmingly back Starmer.
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-takes-lead-in-race-to-replace-corbyn-poll-11899154

MikeSmithson

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

No, There's a good analysis here;

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.

Thanks for that Nick - that sounds right. And the poll will help.

SouthamObserver

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

Unions or CLPs. I would not be hugely surprised if he got Unison’s backing, though.

TGOHF666

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212486981713899520?s=21

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212487666685612033?s=21

Quincel

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

No, There's a good analysis here;

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.

Thanks for that Nick - that sounds right. And the poll will help.

Is there a comprehensive list of which affiliated organisations have voting rights? In particular, do members of the Jewish Labour Movement vote? It would just seem fitting.

TheGreenMachine

TGOHF666 said:

Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

Wallace and gromit would do a better job.

Pulpstar

I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

kinabalu

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212495746978762752

TheGreenMachine

Alistair said:

Well fuck, I had a positive Cashout value on this market this morning, came within a couple of seconds of pushing the button and did not.

You have to wait for the fat lady to sing, as the saying goes.

TGOHF666

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1212493702972620800?s=21

SouthamObserver

Stocky said:

Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

SouthamObserver

Quincel said:

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

No, There's a good analysis here;

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.

Thanks for that Nick - that sounds right. And the poll will help.

Is there a comprehensive list of which affiliated organisations have voting rights? In particular, do members of the Jewish Labour Movement vote? It would just seem fitting.

There are 14 affiliates, JLM is one of them.

HYUFD

TGOHF666 said:

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1212493702972620800?s=21

Starmer clearly does much better with middle class than working class members on that poll, though he still leads fractionally with members from the working class

edmundintokyo

Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

Stocky

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

TGOHF666

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1212493702972620800?s=21

Starmer clearly does much better with middle class than working class members on that poll, though he still leads fractionally with members from the working class

His remainer credentials mean all economic good news from here on in he was against...

Awks..

dodrade

Does Labour become the rejoin party under Starmer or does he finally make his peace with Brexit?

Pulpstar

edmundintokyo said:

Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

Stay long Rayner, back her now if you're feeling bold I reckon. I'm going to leave her be in my book.

rottenborough

edmundintokyo said:

Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

Rayner is my dark horse on the betting.

Pulpstar

Lab Gain Kensington very easily if Starmer is leader. Rest of the country.... hmmm.

rottenborough

kinabalu said:

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212495746978762752

Has Owen's feed been hacked?

Pulpstar

SouthamObserver said:

Stocky said:

Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212499421570752512

WhisperingOracle

A Rayner versus Starmer clash could be an interesting one, because it would be a straight battle between a more targeted northern appeal and Starmer's forensic questioning and agreed-on authority. On policy terms they seem in fact to occupy a very similar soft-left area, but in terms of mood music and associations Rayner is at first glance and superficially slightly closer to the Corbynites.

BluestBlue

Starmer is probably Labour's best choice at the moment, but apart from being more intelligent than Corbyn, he essentially offers a doubling-down on Labour's current losing direction: human rights lawyer, represents inner-London, ultra-Remainer, super woke, and has already promised to keep most of Corbyn's loony economic policies to placate the membership. A dull speaker, and a general charisma vacuum.

Miliband Mark II

Pulpstar

Hmm Rayner worth a small top up at 60 on the back of this. Well £3 for me anyway.

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

Lab Gain Kensington very easily if Starmer is leader. Rest of the country.... hmmm.

He looks a bit like a British Bill Shorten which means Boris can certainly beat him, however he could be a British Francois Hollande I suppose (Hollande of course won after over a decade when the Socialists had been out of power at the Elysee).

Though yes Starmer will appeal more in marginal Tory Remain and soft Leave seats in London and the South than he will in strong Leave seats the Tories have gained from Labour in the Midlands, Wales and the North

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stocky said:

Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?

It 'has to be a woman' seems to have not lasted first contact with the membership.

IanB2

Apart from being male, a Londoner and a middle class remainer without much charisma, Starmer appears ideally qualified for the job.

Stocky

Pulpstar said:

edmundintokyo said:

Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

Stay long Rayner, back her now if you're feeling bold I reckon. I'm going to leave her be in my book.

I`ve just backed her at 60 with BF.

I`m already on Lavery, the other possible left-winger, at big odds.

SouthamObserver

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stocky said:

Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?

I don’t see either making it to the election. The more I think about it the harder it is to see even a third candidate getting in. Realistically I reckon it’s Starmer v Long Bailey or Rayner.

Stocky

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212499421570752512

"The underdog"? Starmer`s been favourite for a while - Jones doesn`t know what he`s talking about.

rcs1000

Pulpstar said:

I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.

RobD

IanB2 said:

Apart from being male, a Londoner and a middle class remainer without much charisma, Starmer appears ideally qualified for the job.

What's wrong with being a man?

Pulpstar

The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

SouthamObserver

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

That may be how it ends up. I think Starmer would win if that happened. Corbyn would find it very tough to explain why he is staying on.

Stocky

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stocky said:

Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?

It 'has to be a woman' seems to have not lasted first contact with the membership.

I`m surprised to be honest. I`m hovering over the 5.2 BF odds on RLB to top up my position.

Stocky

SouthamObserver said:

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

That may be how it ends up. I think Starmer would win if that happened. Corbyn would find it very tough to explain why he is staying on.

But what if Corbyn did fight? Would the union/affilliate etc new rules apply to this contest?

NickPalmer

A few more details here. Women and Northern members backing starmer too, in similar proportions to the others.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/01/poll-of-labour-members-suggests-keir-starmer-is-first-choice

rottenborough

Stocky said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212499421570752512

"The underdog"? Starmer`s been favourite for a while - Jones doesn`t know what he`s talking about.

"underdog" in the Gramsci saloons.

SouthamObserver

Pulpstar said:

The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

This is a key point. Starmer makes it much easier for soft Tories to vote LibDem.

WhisperingOracle

IanB2 said:

Apart from being male, a Londoner and a middle class remainer without much charisma, Starmer appears ideally qualified for the job.

His background and origins are working-class, however. This matters a lot at the moment, not least in blunting various tabloid and tory lines of attack before his appeal is tried out and tested on the north.

RandallFlagg

Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

TheGreenMachine

dodrade said:

Does Labour become the rejoin party under Starmer or does he finally make his peace with Brexit?

There's not much remainers can do atm, if labour get a majority one year, possibly but it'll be forgotten about by then.

Sunil_Prasannan

BluestBlue said:

Starmer is probably Labour's best choice at the moment, but apart from being more intelligent than Corbyn, he essentially offers a doubling-down on Labour's current losing direction: human rights lawyer, represents inner-London, ultra-Remainer, super woke, and has already promised to keep most of Corbyn's loony economic policies to placate the membership. A dull speaker, and a general charisma vacuum.

Miliband Mark II

RLB = Swinson mark II

WhisperingOracle

SouthamObserver said:

Pulpstar said:

The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

This is a key point. Starmer makes it much easier for soft Tories to vote LibDem.

or if Brexit goes disastrously, as a knight of the realm, to vote Labour.

Stocky

Both Starmer for Labour and Davey for LibDems are trading on the same odds with BF (1.7).

This seems off to me. Surely Davey is more of a shoe-in than Starmer is??

NickPalmer

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.

BluestBlue

SouthamObserver said:

Pulpstar said:

The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

This is a key point. Starmer makes it much easier for soft Tories to vote LibDem.

Only if those soft Tories are also soft in the head and don't notice that Starmer's manifesto will be virtually indistinguishable from Corbyn's...

SouthamObserver

Stocky said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

That may be how it ends up. I think Starmer would win if that happened. Corbyn would find it very tough to explain why he is staying on.

But what if Corbyn did fight? Would the union/affilliate etc new rules apply to this contest?

I think so, though the MP threshold for a challenger would be higher (20%, I believe).

EPG

TGOHF666 said:

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212486981713899520?s=21

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212487666685612033?s=21

Sad when they base their case on lies from day one: "any official who has spent more than 18 months in a post ... [are] rewarded with promotions" is garbage. The question becomes whether you are ready for the public to be rather less sanguine when you incite strikes, "I thought it was just more money for the NHS".

Pulpstar

Starmer is 6.4 for next PM. Given he's odds on, and it's odds on he'll be labour leader and Johnson will be Tory leader at the next election that's probably a little long.
I've cleared my liability for him on that market anyway.

MarqueeMark

NickPalmer said:

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.

Well, Pidcock.....but she carelessly lost her seat whilst planning what she would do as PM.

Stocky

NickPalmer said:

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.

You are suggesting, then, that Milne, Murphy, McCluskey et al - plus Momentum - have been cowed by the GE result and lack the fight or power base to continue their piracy of the Labour Party.

I hope you are right - but I`m surprised to to see it crumble so easily be honest.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.

Mrs Foxy is backing him.

Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.

TheGreenMachine

https://youtu.be/ElUgttLExaw

rottenborough

Last line here:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1212500255423574016

Pulpstar

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.

Mrs Foxy is backing him.

Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.

Is Owen Jones backing him or just saying he thinks Starmer is inevitable ?

Foxy

RandallFlagg said:

Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

Well, maybe not.

They too are party loyalists.

WhisperingOracle

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.

Mrs Foxy is backing him.

Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.

Yes. Cross-appeal is the factor with him.

rottenborough

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.

Mrs Foxy is backing him.

Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.

Not sure Owen is backing him.

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.

I actually feel sorry for Long Bailey. A run at the leadership now is, from any objective perspective, ridiculous. She hasn’t even been a Labour member for that long (less than 10 years, I think) and has been almost entirely invisible. She will be a factional candidate, nothing more.

Quincel

TheGreenMachine said:

https://youtu.be/ElUgttLExaw

An interesting video, but one with a lot of discussion of higher pHs being good and lower pH bad and no explanation for why this is. From a dental perspective you don't want too much acidity, but anything near neutral (say 6 pH or more) is totally fine. Even 5 pH is far less acidic than most fruit juices or sodas.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1212501391601754113

SouthamObserver

Stocky said:

NickPalmer said:

Stocky said:

The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.

You are suggesting, then, that Milne, Murphy, McCluskey et al - plus Momentum - have been cowed by the GE result and lack the fight or power base to continue their piracy of the Labour Party.

I hope you are right - but I`m surprised to to see it crumble so easily be honest.

They need a candidate. The machine can do so much, but in the end it’s one member one vote.

rottenborough

Meanwhile in LaLa land:

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1212459535899746304

ralphmalph

In 2002 I was having a chat with a friend of mine, the son of a CotE,the topic how do the Torys beat Blair. The only conclusion we came too was an external event or Blair retired. In the end after multiple attempts the Torys went for a Blair clone, which they thought was better than the original.

So when Labour elect their Boris MKII we may be getting close to Lab being in power again.

Starmer is the wrong choice for these times, but then so are all the other candidates.

TheGreenMachine

Quincel said:

TheGreenMachine said:

https://youtu.be/ElUgttLExaw

An interesting video, but one with a lot of discussion of higher pHs being good and lower pH bad and no explanation for why this is. From a dental perspective you don't want too much acidity, but anything near neutral (say 6 pH or more) is totally fine. Even 5 pH is far less acidic than most fruit juices or sodas.

I did drink lots of bottled water, I'll be swapping to distilled water.

MarqueeMark

RandallFlagg said:

Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

They will "discover" he owns half of East Anglia - "Farmer" Starmer

And that he is sponsored by Pfizer - "Big Pharma" Starmer

And a mass-murderer - "Dahmer" Starmer

The bastard deserves all he gets for replacing Corbyn - "Bad Karma" Starmer....

BluestBlue

MarqueeMark said:

RandallFlagg said:

Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

They will "discover" he owns half of East Anglia - "Farmer" Starmer

And that he is sponsored by Pfizer - "Big Pharma" Starmer

And a mass-murderer - "Dahmer" Starmer

The bastard deserves all he gets for replacing Corbyn - "Bad Karma" Starmer....

And that he runs a dodgy website - the Daily Starmer...