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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer takes clear lead in first YouGov members’ poll of LAB leadership election

Starmer takes lead in race to become new Labour leader – poll https://t.co/DH2rmYGGlM

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    First like Starmer.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    2nd like the DUP every time from now onwards.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited January 2020
    Nandy now out to 60 on Betfair! That seems a bit harsh. It's one poll and a long way to go.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First like Starmer.

    I hope your not eating humble pie in a couple of months.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited January 2020
    Almost the only main candidate acceptable to both the right and left of the party, and now with the combined momentum of both this poll and that interesting poll of Tory supporters mentioned earlier, too, you'd have to think he's overwhelmingly the favourite at this stage.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    RLB over 5s now.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.
    Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.
    To be fair the LDs finally got a female leader and it didn’t go so well. Maybe Labour are correct to be cautious.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Almost the only main candidate acceptable to both the right and left of the party, and now with the combined momentum of both this poll and that interesting poll of Tory supporters mentioned earlier, too, you'd have to think he's overwhelmingly the favourite at this stage.

    I’m no Labour fan but not having a contest seems a terrible idea.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Well fuck, I had a positive Cashout value on this market this morning, came within a couple of seconds of pushing the button and did not.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So is this explicitly memebers? What about the equivalent of the 3 quid Momentum and Tory entryist?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    WhisperingOracle said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.
    Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.
    Far more importantly, he passes the close your eyes and imagine him walking into Downing Street test.

    Very difficult to believe this poll reflects the reality. Surely Labour members haven't woken up to reality this quickly?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rottenborough said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.
    Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.
    Far more importantly, he passes the close your eyes and imagine him walking into Downing Street test.

    Very difficult to believe this poll reflects the reality. Surely Labour members haven't woken up to reality this quickly?
    Has there been any member polling over the last 2 years on Corbyn or potential successors?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Looks like it is Starmer's to lose then and after 4 successive general election defeats Labour members are finally ready to elect a more centrist leader (even if a dull one). Should at least give the Tories more of a contest if indeed they do but still a long way to go and would not rule out Long Bailey yet
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Alistair said:

    rottenborough said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    If you think Starmer is pale and stale you are in for a rude awakening. He'll make Johnson's life very difficult.
    Yes. A potentially forensic opposite to Johnson's blustering.
    Far more importantly, he passes the close your eyes and imagine him walking into Downing Street test.

    Very difficult to believe this poll reflects the reality. Surely Labour members haven't woken up to reality this quickly?
    Has there been any member polling over the last 2 years on Corbyn or potential successors?
    There was a poll in the summer in which Starmer came out very well
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Quincel said:

    Nandy now out to 60 on Betfair! That seems a bit harsh. It's one poll and a long way to go.

    I've taken a nibble on her at 30.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    TGOHF666 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Almost the only main candidate acceptable to both the right and left of the party, and now with the combined momentum of both this poll and that interesting poll of Tory supporters mentioned earlier, too, you'd have to think he's overwhelmingly the favourite at this stage.

    I’m no Labour fan but not having a contest seems a terrible idea.
    It is indeed. Ideas need thrashing out.

    We don't really know the runners and riders yet though.

    Starmer may well be good against Johnson, not sure about the next GE
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited January 2020
    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Starmer has been a partial, but very much not complete, endorser of Corbyn, while hinting always at a more pragmatic position, and at the risk of repeating myself, in the same way the Left wouldn't remove Ed Miliband for the same reason, I don't think they could remove Starmer either.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Intriguing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    https://twitter.com/iamhamesh/status/1212504116909531141
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Interesting comparison with a members poll in May 2015. At that time, like now, candidates had not yet been chosen.

    Corbyn wasn't even polled. But in fairness, the other 3 candidates were and the poll got them in the 'right' order. The poll had Burnham leading, then Cooper, then Kendall. Also had some other people in between them who never made it to nominations; most notably Chukka who was 2nd.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/who-will-win-labour-leadership-election-its-little-early-tell
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My only hope on this market is that RLB withdrawals in favour of Lavery and I can lay of my speculative bet on him for a decent repair of the damage.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?
    No, There's a good analysis here;

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

    Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?
    No, There's a good analysis here;

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

    Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.

    He’ll get them in London alone.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    edited January 2020
    Photo du jour

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1212505305449410560
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Starmer leads Long Bailey amongst Labour members of every age and every gender and every region and amongst both middle and working class members.

    Labour Party members who voted Leave back Long Bailey though but Remainers overwhelmingly back Starmer.
    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-takes-lead-in-race-to-replace-corbyn-poll-11899154
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?
    No, There's a good analysis here;

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

    Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.
    Thanks for that Nick - that sounds right. And the poll will help.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?

    Unions or CLPs. I would not be hugely surprised if he got Unison’s backing, though.

  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212486981713899520?s=21

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212487666685612033?s=21
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MikeSmithson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?
    No, There's a good analysis here;

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

    Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.
    Thanks for that Nick - that sounds right. And the poll will help.
    Is there a comprehensive list of which affiliated organisations have voting rights? In particular, do members of the Jewish Labour Movement vote? It would just seem fitting.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    TGOHF666 said:

    Forth like the 4th male, pale and stale leader Labour are about to elect in a row.

    Wallace and gromit would do a better job.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212495746978762752
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    Alistair said:

    Well fuck, I had a positive Cashout value on this market this morning, came within a couple of seconds of pushing the button and did not.

    You have to wait for the fat lady to sing, as the saying goes.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1212493702972620800?s=21
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Stocky said:

    Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

    He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Quincel said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The far left now has some serious thinking to do. They will need to find a way to keep Starmer off the ballot, which will be very difficult, or perhaps look to persuade Rayner to stand and hope she throws them some bones. Starmer looks to be in course for a Corbyn-sized victory as things stand. That will terrify both Unite and Momentum.

    Has he got a union to back him? Doesn't he need a big union backing to get on the ballot?
    No, There's a good analysis here;

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leadership-election-rules-who-can-vote-next-labour-leader-nominations-explained-1343638

    Starmer will get 33 CLPs nominating him (out of 650) in a canter.
    Thanks for that Nick - that sounds right. And the poll will help.
    Is there a comprehensive list of which affiliated organisations have voting rights? In particular, do members of the Jewish Labour Movement vote? It would just seem fitting.

    There are 14 affiliates, JLM is one of them.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    TGOHF666 said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1212493702972620800?s=21

    Starmer clearly does much better with middle class than working class members on that poll, though he still leads fractionally with members from the working class
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2020
    Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1212493702972620800?s=21

    Starmer clearly does much better with middle class than working class members on that poll, though he still leads fractionally with members from the working class
    His remainer credentials mean all economic good news from here on in he was against...

    Awks..
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Does Labour become the rejoin party under Starmer or does he finally make his peace with Brexit?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    edited January 2020
    edmundintokyo said:

    Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

    Stay long Rayner, back her now if you're feeling bold I reckon. I'm going to leave her be in my book.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    edmundintokyo said:

    Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

    Rayner is my dark horse on the betting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Lab Gain Kensington very easily if Starmer is leader. Rest of the country.... hmmm.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    kinabalu said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212495746978762752

    Has Owen's feed been hacked?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    edited January 2020
    SouthamObserver said:

    Stocky said:

    Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

    He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

    I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212499421570752512
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited January 2020
    A Rayner versus Starmer clash could be an interesting one, because it would be a straight battle between a more targeted northern appeal and Starmer's forensic questioning and agreed-on authority. On policy terms they seem in fact to occupy a very similar soft-left area, but in terms of mood music and associations Rayner is at first glance and superficially slightly closer to the Corbynites.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Starmer is probably Labour's best choice at the moment, but apart from being more intelligent than Corbyn, he essentially offers a doubling-down on Labour's current losing direction: human rights lawyer, represents inner-London, ultra-Remainer, super woke, and has already promised to keep most of Corbyn's loony economic policies to placate the membership. A dull speaker, and a general charisma vacuum.

    Miliband Mark II :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Hmm Rayner worth a small top up at 60 on the back of this. Well £3 for me anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Lab Gain Kensington very easily if Starmer is leader. Rest of the country.... hmmm.

    He looks a bit like a British Bill Shorten which means Boris can certainly beat him, however he could be a British Francois Hollande I suppose (Hollande of course won after over a decade when the Socialists had been out of power at the Elysee).

    Though yes Starmer will appeal more in marginal Tory Remain and soft Leave seats in London and the South than he will in strong Leave seats the Tories have gained from Labour in the Midlands, Wales and the North
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Pulpstar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stocky said:

    Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

    He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

    I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?
    It 'has to be a woman' seems to have not lasted first contact with the membership.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Apart from being male, a Londoner and a middle class remainer without much charisma, Starmer appears ideally qualified for the job.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Maybe value in the non-RLB left candidates. The Corbinistas are currently backing someone exceedingly shit for maximum loyalty, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll see which way the wind is blowing and compromise a bit on the loyal vs shit axis.

    Stay long Rayner, back her now if you're feeling bold I reckon. I'm going to leave her be in my book.
    I`ve just backed her at 60 with BF.

    I`m already on Lavery, the other possible left-winger, at big odds.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Pulpstar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stocky said:

    Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

    He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

    I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?

    I don’t see either making it to the election. The more I think about it the harder it is to see even a third candidate getting in. Realistically I reckon it’s Starmer v Long Bailey or Rayner.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212499421570752512

    "The underdog"? Starmer`s been favourite for a while - Jones doesn`t know what he`s talking about.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

    While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

    I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    Apart from being male, a Londoner and a middle class remainer without much charisma, Starmer appears ideally qualified for the job.

    What's wrong with being a man?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    edited January 2020
    The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
    Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    That may be how it ends up. I think Starmer would win if that happened. Corbyn would find it very tough to explain why he is staying on.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stocky said:

    Reactions to this one poll seem a tad extreme? Recall that according to Herdson Starmer will struggle to get onto the ballot paper because of the new rules.

    He really won’t. Many others will, though. It could end up being a straight Long Bailey v Starmer fight, though I think this poll makes it more likely Rayner might stand instead of Long Bailey.

    I think this poll really crushes Cooper and Thornberry's hopes since they're the "next up" moderates/remainers to Starmer ?
    It 'has to be a woman' seems to have not lasted first contact with the membership.
    I`m surprised to be honest. I`m hovering over the 5.2 BF odds on RLB to top up my position.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    SouthamObserver said:

    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    That may be how it ends up. I think Starmer would win if that happened. Corbyn would find it very tough to explain why he is staying on.

    But what if Corbyn did fight? Would the union/affilliate etc new rules apply to this contest?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    A few more details here. Women and Northern members backing starmer too, in similar proportions to the others.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/01/poll-of-labour-members-suggests-keir-starmer-is-first-choice
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Stocky said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1212499421570752512

    "The underdog"? Starmer`s been favourite for a while - Jones doesn`t know what he`s talking about.
    "underdog" in the Gramsci saloons.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Pulpstar said:

    The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
    Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

    This is a key point. Starmer makes it much easier for soft Tories to vote LibDem.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited January 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Apart from being male, a Londoner and a middle class remainer without much charisma, Starmer appears ideally qualified for the job.

    His background and origins are working-class, however. This matters a lot at the moment, not least in blunting various tabloid and tory lines of attack before his appeal is tried out and tested on the north.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,294
    Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    dodrade said:

    Does Labour become the rejoin party under Starmer or does he finally make his peace with Brexit?

    There's not much remainers can do atm, if labour get a majority one year, possibly but it'll be forgotten about by then.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    BluestBlue said:

    Starmer is probably Labour's best choice at the moment, but apart from being more intelligent than Corbyn, he essentially offers a doubling-down on Labour's current losing direction: human rights lawyer, represents inner-London, ultra-Remainer, super woke, and has already promised to keep most of Corbyn's loony economic policies to placate the membership. A dull speaker, and a general charisma vacuum.

    Miliband Mark II :wink:

    RLB = Swinson mark II :lol:
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    SouthamObserver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
    Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

    This is a key point. Starmer makes it much easier for soft Tories to vote LibDem.

    or if Brexit goes disastrously, as a knight of the realm, to vote Labour.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Both Starmer for Labour and Davey for LibDems are trading on the same odds with BF (1.7).

    This seems off to me. Surely Davey is more of a shoe-in than Starmer is??
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

    A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    SouthamObserver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The party Starmer is really going to help............ will be the Lib Dems. Noone is going to be TERRIFIED of a Starmer premiership in the same way Corbyn gave anyone remotely right of centre nightmares.
    Labour having awful leaders makes things very hard for the yellow peril.

    This is a key point. Starmer makes it much easier for soft Tories to vote LibDem.

    Only if those soft Tories are also soft in the head and don't notice that Starmer's manifesto will be virtually indistinguishable from Corbyn's...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Stocky said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    That may be how it ends up. I think Starmer would win if that happened. Corbyn would find it very tough to explain why he is staying on.

    But what if Corbyn did fight? Would the union/affilliate etc new rules apply to this contest?

    I think so, though the MP threshold for a challenger would be higher (20%, I believe).

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    TGOHF666 said:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212486981713899520?s=21

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1212487666685612033?s=21

    Sad when they base their case on lies from day one: "any official who has spent more than 18 months in a post ... [are] rewarded with promotions" is garbage. The question becomes whether you are ready for the public to be rather less sanguine when you incite strikes, "I thought it was just more money for the NHS".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Starmer is 6.4 for next PM. Given he's odds on, and it's odds on he'll be labour leader and Johnson will be Tory leader at the next election that's probably a little long.
    I've cleared my liability for him on that market anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    NickPalmer said:

    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

    A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.
    Well, Pidcock.....but she carelessly lost her seat whilst planning what she would do as PM.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    NickPalmer said:

    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

    A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.
    You are suggesting, then, that Milne, Murphy, McCluskey et al - plus Momentum - have been cowed by the GE result and lack the fight or power base to continue their piracy of the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right - but I`m surprised to to see it crumble so easily be honest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

    While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

    I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.
    Mrs Foxy is backing him.

    Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    https://youtu.be/ElUgttLExaw
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Last line here:

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1212500255423574016
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

    While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

    I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.
    Mrs Foxy is backing him.

    Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.
    Is Owen Jones backing him or just saying he thinks Starmer is inevitable ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RandallFlagg said:

    Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

    Well, maybe not.

    They too are party loyalists.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

    While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

    I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.
    Mrs Foxy is backing him.

    Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.
    Yes. Cross-appeal is the factor with him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see Labour moving forward in the likes of Milton Keynes, Reading West, Peterborough whilst going further backward in Hemsworth, Normanton and Doncaster if Starmer becomes leader.

    While Starmer is uninspiring, he's also unthreatening.

    I think he'd end up doing better than Corbyn everywhere.
    Mrs Foxy is backing him.

    Telling too that Owen Jones and NickP do too. They are both loyalists.
    Not sure Owen is backing him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    NickPalmer said:

    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

    A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.

    I actually feel sorry for Long Bailey. A run at the leadership now is, from any objective perspective, ridiculous. She hasn’t even been a Labour member for that long (less than 10 years, I think) and has been almost entirely invisible. She will be a factional candidate, nothing more.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheGreenMachine said:

    https://youtu.be/ElUgttLExaw

    An interesting video, but one with a lot of discussion of higher pHs being good and lower pH bad and no explanation for why this is. From a dental perspective you don't want too much acidity, but anything near neutral (say 6 pH or more) is totally fine. Even 5 pH is far less acidic than most fruit juices or sodas.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1212501391601754113
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Stocky said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Stocky said:

    The left won`t give up their position easily. I wonder whether Corbyn will stay on longer than expected?

    If so, would Starmer challenge him? How does this work given the new rules?

    Corbyn really won't. It's been a duty rather than a pleasure for some time.

    A weakness of the left has for some time been the narrow inner circle - really only McDonnell and Abbott among MPs, neither of whom fancy it. No serious thought seems to have been given to bringing on the next generatgion of left-wingers.
    You are suggesting, then, that Milne, Murphy, McCluskey et al - plus Momentum - have been cowed by the GE result and lack the fight or power base to continue their piracy of the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right - but I`m surprised to to see it crumble so easily be honest.

    They need a candidate. The machine can do so much, but in the end it’s one member one vote.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    Meanwhile in LaLa land:

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1212459535899746304
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    In 2002 I was having a chat with a friend of mine, the son of a CotE,the topic how do the Torys beat Blair. The only conclusion we came too was an external event or Blair retired. In the end after multiple attempts the Torys went for a Blair clone, which they thought was better than the original.

    So when Labour elect their Boris MKII we may be getting close to Lab being in power again.

    Starmer is the wrong choice for these times, but then so are all the other candidates.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,090
    Quincel said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    https://youtu.be/ElUgttLExaw

    An interesting video, but one with a lot of discussion of higher pHs being good and lower pH bad and no explanation for why this is. From a dental perspective you don't want too much acidity, but anything near neutral (say 6 pH or more) is totally fine. Even 5 pH is far less acidic than most fruit juices or sodas.
    I did drink lots of bottled water, I'll be swapping to distilled water.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited January 2020
    RandallFlagg said:

    Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

    They will "discover" he owns half of East Anglia - "Farmer" Starmer

    And that he is sponsored by Pfizer - "Big Pharma" Starmer

    And a mass-murderer - "Dahmer" Starmer

    The bastard deserves all he gets for replacing Corbyn - "Bad Karma" Starmer....
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    MarqueeMark said:

    RandallFlagg said:

    Expect to see Skwawkbox and Novora Media attacking on Starmer on a daily basis now, and attempt to dig up (or invent most likely) any skeleton they can find.

    They will "discover" he owns half of East Anglia - "Farmer" Starmer

    And that he is sponsored by Pfizer - "Big Pharma" Starmer

    And a mass-murderer - "Dahmer" Starmer

    The bastard deserves all he gets for replacing Corbyn - "Bad Karma" Starmer....
    And that he runs a dodgy website - the Daily Starmer...
This discussion has been closed.