Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month
Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It's important that UKIP should get as many local councillors elected as possible, on the coat-tails of the MEPs.
Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10477858/Object-to-mass-immigration-from-the-EU-Join--Romaphobe-club.html
"It's not bigoted to worry about filthy and vastly overcrowded living arrangements, organised aggressive begging and the ghetto-isation of local streets.
Maybe the fears of a “flood” of eastern Europeans queuing up at Calais as December 31 ticks away are unfounded. No one any longer believes government estimates of how many are likely to come here anyway. But when David Cameron talks about making the UK benefit system less attractive to new arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria, he’s speaking to a lot more people than just his own party’s Right wing.
And my own party would do well to recognise that."
Don't know enough about it to say whether this is a good move or not.
I'm not saying that all, or any, of them will be won, but the party has a real chance.
As with most third / minor parties, come election day, I'd expect that if they do poll reasonably well, they'll do so at the expense of whichever of the main parties and/or their leaders is perceived as weak. That's an absolute rating, not a relative one: there could be none, one, two or three weak parties in 2015.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2013/177.aspx
A bit better than tweets. ;-)
"Ramping up the rhetoric on immigration just helps UKIP"
It seems that a lot of Labour MPs disagree with you, tim. They are queuing up to defend the right of the WWC to complain about it.
I wonder why?
My mother is what can be charitably described as Old Labour*, went to visit some shops on Page Hall Road in Sheffield yesterday.
When she got back home, she was ranting about the filthy disgusting Roma people she saw in the area, and she wants them sent back, if they don't learn how to behave in this country**
Normally my mother is very tolerant, but, there's something about the Roma that, I don't know, brings something out in people
*Though she did vote for that nice Mr Clegg in 2010.
**I did want to point out the irony of her wanting to send people back, but experience tells me not to disagree with my mother.
Politics, either side of the Atlantic http://tinyurl.com/pent94c
Not as exciting as the Kleenex-fest down thread would lead us to believe then.
That is very similar in parts to a greatly misunderstood speech on the same subject from many years ago.
Well said Tom Harris, it's enough to make me consider voting Labour
I can see the potential for those seats turning UKIP.
If that Survation poll in Thanet South were to be repeated at a general election, it would be a great night for Sir John Major, as he would no longer be the Tory Leader who led the party to their worst electoral defeat in history.
That honour would fall to Dave...
I regularly return to Boston to visit family. Perhaps I move in the wrong circles but Ukip are having a stormer. I'm not sure how the BBC managed such a "balanced" audience on QT from there. But that's only anecdote, of course.
That's the problem that white liberal luvvies are going to have... You can't just classify immigrants as one homogenous group and use them against your political enemies
Re: parties
It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM. If he has a better use of his time - and it sounds like he does - then it's absolutely right that he should delegate.
There's plenty of work parties that I host, say a few words of thanks, mingle for 45 mins or so, chat to the people I need to chat to, and then quietly duck out and let my CEO carry on working the crowd.
from a fortnight ago
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/15/sheffield-page-hall-roma-slovakia-immigration
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25137444
ie coverage of BoE Governor's speech.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/features/is-page-hall-really-a-ticking-bomb-of-racial-violence-1-6281461
If the Survation results were repeated nationwide, then according to Baxter we'd get 390 Labour, 90 UKIP, 87 Conservatives, 54 Lib Dems.
Labour would be winning huge numbers of seats on ridiculously low vote shares.
Depends what you mean by peaked. If you look at the all polls average that yougov fits in with the kippers being at the bottom of a slide after they peaked at the May local elections.
They're possibly starting to creep up again too.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
"I find it hard seeing them below 5%."
Yup. They're going to drop again after the EU elections but if this is the kippers bottoming out a around 11-12% between the May local elections and next years EU elections then to go back to around 3% they would have to crash and keep crashing hard after the EU elections. Farage imploding in a Robery Kilroy-Silk like manner might do it but that doesn't look likely right now.
Lewis Collins (Bodie from The Professionals) has died.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25135934
There goes another part of my childhood.
RIP.
Somewhere in Kent: 1 seat
Somewhere on the south coast: 1 seat
Somewhere in the south west: 1 seat
Somewhere in East Anglia: 1 seat
Somewhere in Lincolnshire: 1 seat
Total = 5 seats
Even money
I get Ukip 10% plus at GE 2015
You get Ukip 5% or less at said GE
In between is Void
Any takers?
Taylor Wimpey -7.77%
Persimmon -6.74%
Barratt -5.65%
Bovis -4.38%
Just a word to defend the local youth of Boston. I worked on the land throughout my teens and it was hard graft. Given a choice, I'd have happily sat on my arse and watched others do it. Unfortunately, that was in the sixties, so I had no option but to do it.
As I'm living in Merseyside now (as does tim), immigration tends to pass us by, so I'm surprised by the vehemence when I go back to Boston. And these are white, predominantly Catholic and hard-working newcomers.
Still, as the Guardian likes to say, I should "check my privilege". As we don't live in an area affected, perhaps we should be quiet.
Might have to watch Who Dares Wins tonight !
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2514682/Co-op-Bank-slammed-cheap-loans-Celtic-Football-Club.html
"The Co-operative Bank has come under fire for dishing out £33.2million in cheap loans and overdrafts to Celtic Football Club, which was chaired by former Labour home secretary John Reid"
"Labour’s former energy minister Brian Wilson joined the Celtic board in 2005 and remains a director."
"The latest company accounts for Celtic show it has a £12million overdraft facility charging an average of 1.5 per cent over the year to June 30 2013.
This is based on one percentage point above the Bank of England’s base rate, which is currently 0.5 per cent.
The remainder is made up of a £21.2million long-term loan, with an average rate of 1.65 per cent. This makes even Labour’s recent £1.2million cheap loan at 4 per cent – or 3.5 per cent above Base Rate – look expensive.
Co-op’s hugely generous terms once again highlight the close links between the scandal-hit lender and the upper echelons of the Labour Party."
"If we got rid of 10,000 migrants, who would do the work?""
We managed in the 1960s as many of us weren't technically unemployed. I remember having to leave early on Thursday afternoons so some of the gang could sign on. And on one particular day, we had the police stop the gang van so they could check on who was moonlighting.
But Simmonds is tight about the benefit for farmers. Having a stable hard-working, low-paid workforce is great.
The Co-op cannot claim to be ethical and lend money on the cheap to its mates. Its as simple as that
If it wants to espouse EU exit above all else, it's best bet is to fight hard everywhere, cause as much trauma as possible for the existing Westminster parties and aim to have one of them adopt EU exit as a policy, or at least offer a credible exit route. On the other hand, if EU exit is secondary to establishing an elected presence and then growing it over the decades, it would be better concentrating on half a dozen constituencies.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2514682/Co-op-Bank-slammed-cheap-loans-Celtic-Football-Club.html#ixzz2lvGaNRu5
Loans for the Bhoys...
'Salmond has done far more to preserve the UK this week than anyone.'
SNP currency position shredded by Lamont & EU membership shredded by Davidson in yesterday's debate.
Maybe the voter bribes,free childcare etc. will work but on the substantive issues it's hopeless.
So in effect the state was paying for unproductive people through subsidies to nationalised industries and other companies (there were a lot of subsidies in then - food was subsidised for a time in the 1970s).
Thatcher got rid of all that and threw unproductive people on to the dole instead. So instead of subsidies to employers the state picked up the cost of benefits. And instead of the semblance of work people were thrust into the reality of idleness. But the cost to the taxpayer remained much the same.....
I was furious at the time. I'm not sure how investing in the football bubble (and yes Tim, that is a real bubble) could be seen as being an ethical use of cash.
The issue is, how long do you keep it going. 1965 was only twenty years after WW2, so maybe that would have been a good point. 1979 was 34 years after WW2, and closer to WW2 than we are now.
An EU exit may well happen by other routes before they achieve this, but I don't see how not trying to achieve the above will make it any more likely, rather than less likely.
'The prime minister requests the pleasure of the company of
-------------
to celebrate St Andrew's Day and the contribution Scotland makes to the United Kingdom and the wider world.'
Unless something better turns up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wipeout_(elections)
One question I haven't really been able to get a grip on is how bad things are for grassroots Tory parties facing UKIP defections, and how much it matters. I wonder if we won't be seeing a few shock results here and there where the incumbent doesn't see the danger until it's too late and their activist base stays at home or helps the opposition.
F1: now confirmed, Brawn says aufwiedersehen Mercedes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25125831
It'll be quite interesting to see how UKIP does both in the euros and in the General Election.
Here, the 1920s were a time when all sorts of things happened politically that no one could have predicted.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957
It surely has to be a candidate for the most capable and successful combat plane ever?
It has none of the sexiness of the B1-B (or even better, the Tu-160), or the sheer expense of the B2, but it has been massively successful.
Also, B52's were extensively used against Vietnam and surrounding countries up to 1973. I wonder if the US chose it for that reason. A better message ...
On a sort-of related note, the Williams car this year was actually faster when they took the coanda exhaust off the back (it's banned next year so they were testing that, and both drivers reported it improved the car).
Any links between the Owls and Labour ? Board members ? Season ticket holders ?
"The changes we are making have no implications for HM Government’s Help to Buy scheme, which is designed to address the specific issue of access to mortgages for borrowers without large deposits, unlike the FLS which was designed to boost lending more generally."
In short housebuilding no longer needs access to cheap cash as there is increased demand, not least by HTB so FLS is better deployed elsewhere. As was obvious when he was before the Treasury Select Committee this week the Governor and Osborne are very much singing off the same hymn sheet and suggestions otherwise are, well, just silly.
..it intends to keep the B-52H in service until 2045, nearly 90 years after the B-52 first entered service and an unprecedented length of service for any aircraft, civilian or military
It's quite a worrying move by China. They really are giving signs of expansionism.
For quite a few years, Labour MP Joe Ashton was concurrently a Director of Sheffield Wednesday
This was the Joe Ashton
Police have confirmed Labour MP Joe Ashton was found at a Thai massage parlour when they conducted a raid on the premises.
The information given by the MP was "misleading" and a computer check had to be made to determine his identity, Northamptonshire's Chief Constable Chris Fox said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/297721.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-52_Stratofortress
I love the way they twat around for several years with all kinds of official proposals and expensive prototypes, then it gets rejected on a Thursday evening and they call over a couple of engineers who happen to be in town and get a whole new design sorted over the weekend.
In 2010 the Co-op Bank wrote off £17 million of loans to Sheffield Wednesday FC.
I was furious at the time. I'm not sure how investing in the football bubble (and yes Tim, that is a real bubble) could be seen as being an ethical use of cash.
In Wednesday's case they didn't really have an option - it was that or the club went bust and they got no money back. Unlike other clubs who spent big (although Wednesday didn't even spend that big, just bought bad/injured players and Di Canio who swanned off) and then dropped out of the Premier League at precisely the wrong moment, Wednesday didn't go into administration soon after but attempted to service the Co-Op loans for over a decade, crippling the club competitively in the process and leading to a situation where due to another relegation, the club would've gone under and no one would've got anything.
In comparison Leeds (twice), Leicester, Coventry and many others went into admin much sooner and paid tiny amounts in the pound to their creditors and regained financial sanity much more after the ITV Digital collapse meant that the money outside the prem was greatly reduced.
At the time of relegation from the prem the club owed £16m to Co-Op - for which you can blame the ludicrous stewardship of current FA Chairman and paddling pool enthusiast 'Sir' Dave Richards. A large amount - but serviceable in the Premiership or in theory by player sales and not Leeds or Rangers scale, but bad appointments and signings then led to relegation and players which had been worth £2-£3m now being worth nothing and clogging up the wage bill.
In 2010 despite 0 transfer spend for 10 years the debt was £23m, £6m of which the Co-Op got back from the new owner Mandaric. Not ideal by any means, but a lot better deal than Leeds' creditors got out of Ken Bates.
Less a case of cheap money and a bubble, more of Co-Op desperately trying to somehow eke out a return on their loan by allowing the club to nurse the debt until either a buyer arrived or had a miracle season a la Blackpool or Burnley and returned to the top flight.
http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/
The reason is simple: it does the job well, and creating a new airframe to fulfil the same role would cost countless billions. Why replace it if it still performs, and has not reached it's fatigue life?
What is clear, I think, is that WW2 and Korea gave a fantastic lift to military aircraft design which was not really matched until the American super budgets of the 80s produced stealth technology.
Lavish praise for the recently retired cricketer in the Pakistani press has so irritated the militant group that it has released a video ordering newspapers and TV stations to stop promoting him.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/28/taliban-media-unpatriotic-sachin-tendulkar
- Sir Sidney Camm.
Scunthorpe fans asked not to dress as squirrels for Alan Knill return
• Former Scunthorpe manager injured in crash with rodent
• 'I was flying through the air – I could have died,' he says
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/nov/28/scunthorpe-fans-squirrels-knill-plymouth
If you believe "some people are too stupid to get on" then logically shouldn't you be be in favour of an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?
If you support unlimited mass immigration and amnesties for illegals *and* believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then isn't that pretty much explicitly waging economic warfare on the stupid for the benefit of the filthy rich - (as opposed to the non-filthy rich).
What is talked about enough is what will happen to the Lib Dims in Scotland? Could be another easy 4-5 seats for Ed there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Electric_Lightning
Also, the US were investing in stealth from the mid-1970s; the Have Blue prototype first flew in 1977, and the F117 Stealth Fighter in 1981. Therefore it was well before Reagan's military spending ramp.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Have_Blue
Is anyone bothered about this? I'm a Christian - evangelical-ish but not sure where I stand personally on what God things about same-sex, um, sex; but strongly liberal in that I think the state shouldn't treat people differently based upon the gender of their partner. So I think it's absolutely right that this the B&B owners lost their case, and I rather liked what Stonewall said in their statement:
'Some might suggest that, rather than pursuing this case, a far more Christian thing to do would be to fight the evils of poverty and disease worldwide.'
If people believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then logically shouldn't they want an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?
On the substance of the point, from an economic point of view screening out people who were both stupid and feckless might be a useful thing to do. But in practice immigrants tend to have quite a lot of feck.
I'm very sceptical about such things. It would be interesting to see the terms of the loans, and whether they were realistic at the time, yet alone in hindsight.
As for value to the community: I daresay they could have loaned (or even given) those millions to local businesses and done much more good to the area.
Football and F1 are the antithesis of each other: football is a sport that masquerades as a multi-billion dollar business, whilst F1 is a multi-billion dollar business masquerading as a sport.
F1 works as a business. Football does not.