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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most.

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Comments

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    6/7% remains my best guess, with a realistic chance of winning in up to half a dozen constituencies.

    It's important that UKIP should get as many local councillors elected as possible, on the coat-tails of the MEPs.
  • Sean_F said:

    6/7% remains my best guess, with a realistic chance of winning in up to half a dozen constituencies.

    It's important that UKIP should get as many local councillors elected as possible, on the coat-tails of the MEPs.

    What seats do you think they have a realistic chance of winning?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    FPT:

    Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    Labour MP Tom Harris:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10477858/Object-to-mass-immigration-from-the-EU-Join--Romaphobe-club.html

    "It's not bigoted to worry about filthy and vastly overcrowded living arrangements, organised aggressive begging and the ghetto-isation of local streets.

    Maybe the fears of a “flood” of eastern Europeans queuing up at Calais as December 31 ticks away are unfounded. No one any longer believes government estimates of how many are likely to come here anyway. But when David Cameron talks about making the UK benefit system less attractive to new arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria, he’s speaking to a lot more people than just his own party’s Right wing.
    And my own party would do well to recognise that."
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    tim said:

    FPT:

    Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...

    Not Help To Buy, he's no power over that, Funding For Lending. And Loan To Value caps being
    hinted at.

    Has Bubble Boy Osborne been rumbled?
    Fairy nuff, I had the TV on in the background.

    Don't know enough about it to say whether this is a good move or not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    6/7% remains my best guess, with a realistic chance of winning in up to half a dozen constituencies.

    It's important that UKIP should get as many local councillors elected as possible, on the coat-tails of the MEPs.

    What seats do you think they have a realistic chance of winning?
    Thanet North and South, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness, Eastleigh.

    I'm not saying that all, or any, of them will be won, but the party has a real chance.

  • The other main question about UKIP besides how big their vote share will be is where will it come from and in what proportions? Their electoral coalition attracts support from Con, Lab, LD, others and Didn't Vote, for varying different (and to an extent, contradictory), reasons.

    As with most third / minor parties, come election day, I'd expect that if they do poll reasonably well, they'll do so at the expense of whichever of the main parties and/or their leaders is perceived as weak. That's an absolute rating, not a relative one: there could be none, one, two or three weak parties in 2015.
  • FPT:

    Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...

    Help to Buy is about to become largely irrelevant as big lenders are returning to offering 95% LTV mortgages. Job done there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    And the BoE's news release:
    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2013/177.aspx

    A bit better than tweets. ;-)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    "Ramping up the rhetoric on immigration just helps UKIP"

    It seems that a lot of Labour MPs disagree with you, tim. They are queuing up to defend the right of the WWC to complain about it.

    I wonder why?
  • @AndyJS

    My mother is what can be charitably described as Old Labour*, went to visit some shops on Page Hall Road in Sheffield yesterday.

    When she got back home, she was ranting about the filthy disgusting Roma people she saw in the area, and she wants them sent back, if they don't learn how to behave in this country**

    Normally my mother is very tolerant, but, there's something about the Roma that, I don't know, brings something out in people

    *Though she did vote for that nice Mr Clegg in 2010.

    **I did want to point out the irony of her wanting to send people back, but experience tells me not to disagree with my mother.
  • Ally Fogg ‏@AllyFogg 20h
    Politics, either side of the Atlantic http://tinyurl.com/pent94c
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2013

    And the BoE's news release:
    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2013/177.aspx

    A bit better than tweets. ;-)

    'Commenting on these changes to the scheme, the Chancellor of the Exchequer said: “The Funding for Lending Scheme proved to be a successful tool in supporting the recovery. Now that the housing market is starting to pick up, it is right that we focus the scheme’s firepower on small businesses. Small firms are the lifeblood of our economy. That’s why we’re reforming the banks, introducing the employment allowance and now focussing the Funding for Lending Scheme to support them”.'

    Not as exciting as the Kleenex-fest down thread would lead us to believe then.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    AndyJS said:

    Labour MP Tom Harris:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10477858/Object-to-mass-immigration-from-the-EU-Join--Romaphobe-club.html

    "It's not bigoted to worry about filthy and vastly overcrowded living arrangements, organised aggressive begging and the ghetto-isation of local streets.

    Maybe the fears of a “flood” of eastern Europeans queuing up at Calais as December 31 ticks away are unfounded. No one any longer believes government estimates of how many are likely to come here anyway. But when David Cameron talks about making the UK benefit system less attractive to new arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria, he’s speaking to a lot more people than just his own party’s Right wing.
    And my own party would do well to recognise that."

    Wow.

    That is very similar in parts to a greatly misunderstood speech on the same subject from many years ago.

    Well said Tom Harris, it's enough to make me consider voting Labour

  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    6/7% remains my best guess, with a realistic chance of winning in up to half a dozen constituencies.

    It's important that UKIP should get as many local councillors elected as possible, on the coat-tails of the MEPs.

    What seats do you think they have a realistic chance of winning?
    Thanet North and South, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness, Eastleigh.

    I'm not saying that all, or any, of them will be won, but the party has a real chance.

    Thanks, some UKIPers on here, and elsewhere are boldly predicting UKIP winning 25-30 seats, but when I ask them for the specific seats, they go silent.

    I can see the potential for those seats turning UKIP.

    If that Survation poll in Thanet South were to be repeated at a general election, it would be a great night for Sir John Major, as he would no longer be the Tory Leader who led the party to their worst electoral defeat in history.

    That honour would fall to Dave...
  • @AndyJS

    My mother is what can be charitably described as Old Labour*, went to visit some shops on Page Hall Road in Sheffield yesterday.

    When she got back home, she was ranting about the filthy disgusting Roma people she saw in the area, and she wants them sent back, if they don't learn how to behave in this country**

    Normally my mother is very tolerant, but, there's something about the Roma that, I don't know, brings something out in people

    *Though she did vote for that nice Mr Clegg in 2010.

    **I did want to point out the irony of her wanting to send people back, but experience tells me not to disagree with my mother.

    Wasn't there a recent news article referring to trouble in Sheffield between Roma and Asians?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    CD13 said:


    "Ramping up the rhetoric on immigration just helps UKIP"

    It seems that a lot of Labour MPs disagree with you, tim. They are queuing up to defend the right of the WWC to complain about it.

    I wonder why?

    On the immigration issue, the mainstream parties are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Argue for the benefits of immigration, and 70%+ of the voters will be alienated; ignore it, and UKIP is given free rein; speak up about it, and they raise expectations that they can't fulfil.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Sean F,

    I regularly return to Boston to visit family. Perhaps I move in the wrong circles but Ukip are having a stormer. I'm not sure how the BBC managed such a "balanced" audience on QT from there. But that's only anecdote, of course.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited November 2013

    @AndyJS

    My mother is what can be charitably described as Old Labour*, went to visit some shops on Page Hall Road in Sheffield yesterday.

    When she got back home, she was ranting about the filthy disgusting Roma people she saw in the area, and she wants them sent back, if they don't learn how to behave in this country**

    Normally my mother is very tolerant, but, there's something about the Roma that, I don't know, brings something out in people

    *Though she did vote for that nice Mr Clegg in 2010.

    **I did want to point out the irony of her wanting to send people back, but experience tells me not to disagree with my mother.

    Wasn't there a recent news article referring to trouble in Sheffield between Roma and Asians?

    That's the problem that white liberal luvvies are going to have... You can't just classify immigrants as one homogenous group and use them against your political enemies
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM. If he has a better use of his time - and it sounds like he does - then it's absolutely right that he should delegate.

    There's plenty of work parties that I host, say a few words of thanks, mingle for 45 mins or so, chat to the people I need to chat to, and then quietly duck out and let my CEO carry on working the crowd.
  • @AndyJS

    My mother is what can be charitably described as Old Labour*, went to visit some shops on Page Hall Road in Sheffield yesterday.

    When she got back home, she was ranting about the filthy disgusting Roma people she saw in the area, and she wants them sent back, if they don't learn how to behave in this country**

    Normally my mother is very tolerant, but, there's something about the Roma that, I don't know, brings something out in people

    *Though she did vote for that nice Mr Clegg in 2010.

    **I did want to point out the irony of her wanting to send people back, but experience tells me not to disagree with my mother.

    Wasn't there a recent news article referring to trouble in Sheffield between Roma and Asians?
    Yes

    from a fortnight ago

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/15/sheffield-page-hall-roma-slovakia-immigration
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited November 2013
    BBC coverage of help for business...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25137444

    ie coverage of BoE Governor's speech.
  • “I had a Pakistani saying to me the other day: ‘These Roma, come here, not integrating, they’re a disgrace’,” he recalls. “I said to him ‘I remember people saying the same about Pakistani families 30 years ago. I didn’t listen to them then and I’m not listening to you now’.”

    http://www.thestar.co.uk/features/is-page-hall-really-a-ticking-bomb-of-racial-violence-1-6281461
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    6/7% remains my best guess, with a realistic chance of winning in up to half a dozen constituencies.

    It's important that UKIP should get as many local councillors elected as possible, on the coat-tails of the MEPs.

    What seats do you think they have a realistic chance of winning?
    Thanet North and South, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness, Eastleigh.

    I'm not saying that all, or any, of them will be won, but the party has a real chance.

    Thanks, some UKIPers on here, and elsewhere are boldly predicting UKIP winning 25-30 seats, but when I ask them for the specific seats, they go silent.

    I can see the potential for those seats turning UKIP.

    If that Survation poll in Thanet South were to be repeated at a general election, it would be a great night for Sir John Major, as he would no longer be the Tory Leader who led the party to their worst electoral defeat in history.

    That honour would fall to Dave...
    25-30 is hugely over-optimistic - unless the Conservative Party were to implode.

    If the Survation results were repeated nationwide, then according to Baxter we'd get 390 Labour, 90 UKIP, 87 Conservatives, 54 Lib Dems.

    Labour would be winning huge numbers of seats on ridiculously low vote shares.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    I don't think UKIP can win more than about 5 seats at the next election, which is why I think they ought to instead concentrate on maximising their share of the vote across the country. If they do that they may win the 5 anyway. But targetting 20 seats at the expense of national share would be a mistake from their point of view IMO.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    "The only times that UKIP has peaked before have been in the months before and after the EU elections."

    Depends what you mean by peaked. If you look at the all polls average that yougov fits in with the kippers being at the bottom of a slide after they peaked at the May local elections.
    They're possibly starting to creep up again too.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    "I find it hard seeing them below 5%."

    Yup. They're going to drop again after the EU elections but if this is the kippers bottoming out a around 11-12% between the May local elections and next years EU elections then to go back to around 3% they would have to crash and keep crashing hard after the EU elections. Farage imploding in a Robery Kilroy-Silk like manner might do it but that doesn't look likely right now.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    Off-topic:

    Lewis Collins (Bodie from The Professionals) has died.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25135934

    There goes another part of my childhood.

    RIP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The best UKIP could do in terms of seats would be something like this:

    Somewhere in Kent: 1 seat
    Somewhere on the south coast: 1 seat
    Somewhere in the south west: 1 seat
    Somewhere in East Anglia: 1 seat
    Somewhere in Lincolnshire: 1 seat

    Total = 5 seats
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    I will repeat my offer of a bet

    Even money

    I get Ukip 10% plus at GE 2015
    You get Ukip 5% or less at said GE

    In between is Void

    Any takers?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think UKIP can win more than about 5 seats at the next election, which is why I think they ought to instead concentrate on maximising their share of the vote across the country. If they do that they may win the 5 anyway. But targetting 20 seats at the expense of national share would be a mistake from their point of view IMO.

    No, Good targeting is what counts under FPTP. Fight hard everywhere, and one can be pretty certain that UKIP will win no seats, even if they end up with perhaps 20 seats where they poll 20%+. One mustn't try to run before one can walk.


  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    FPT:

    Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...

    Help to Buy is about to become largely irrelevant as big lenders are returning to offering 95% LTV mortgages. Job done there.
    Looks like a big mistake.
  • AndyJS said:

    The best UKIP could do in terms of seats would be something like this:

    Somewhere in Kent: 1 seat
    Somewhere on the south coast: 1 seat
    Somewhere in the south west: 1 seat
    Somewhere in East Anglia: 1 seat
    Somewhere in Lincolnshire: 1 seat

    Total = 5 seats

    In all honesty I think UKIP will be struggling to get any more than that even on a very good day. But I would expect their overall share of the national vote to be in the low to mid teens.
  • The market seems to have greatly over-reacted to the Funding for Lending announcement:

    Taylor Wimpey -7.77%
    Persimmon -6.74%
    Barratt -5.65%
    Bovis -4.38%
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349

    Just a word to defend the local youth of Boston. I worked on the land throughout my teens and it was hard graft. Given a choice, I'd have happily sat on my arse and watched others do it. Unfortunately, that was in the sixties, so I had no option but to do it.

    As I'm living in Merseyside now (as does tim), immigration tends to pass us by, so I'm surprised by the vehemence when I go back to Boston. And these are white, predominantly Catholic and hard-working newcomers.

    Still, as the Guardian likes to say, I should "check my privilege". As we don't live in an area affected, perhaps we should be quiet.
  • Off-topic:

    Lewis Collins (Bodie from The Professionals) has died.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25135934

    There goes another part of my childhood.

    RIP.

    Damn. That is sad. Like you the Professionals were part of my teens. Great shame. :-(
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    UKIP will poll 6 to 8% in 2015 and will win ZERO seats . In Lincolnshire and hence Boston and Skegness they are in meltdown and half their councillors have gone off into a splinter group . Their best chance of a seat is one of the Kent coastal seats with Farage as a candidate , they may be able to poll a plurality in these seats on a local election turnout in mid term but as the Survation poll shows they would not do so on a GE turnout .
  • Charles said:

    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM.

    One might think that part of Cameron's work as a UK pm was to preserve the UK, he certainly likes to give that impression. However I accept that his heart isn't really in it, and he's not very good at it.
  • Off-topic:

    Lewis Collins (Bodie from The Professionals) has died.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25135934

    There goes another part of my childhood.

    RIP.

    Damn. That is sad. Like you the Professionals were part of my teens. Great shame. :-(
    Lewis Collins stared in the best ever opening sequence imo - That shite car smashing through the building's glass and onto the road is the thing of cult.
    Might have to watch Who Dares Wins tonight !
  • tim said:

    @CD13

    "As local Tory MP Mark Simmonds pointed out earlier this year, there are about 1,300 unemployed people in Boston: "If we got rid of 10,000 migrants, who would do the work?""

    Tim , there are now such things as buses, cars and even trains. What you do is get on or in them and they take you great distances beyond even the next village!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour and the Co op : a cheap source of funds well below the market rates for Labour and their cronies- meanwhile no bond payments for savers this year..

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2514682/Co-op-Bank-slammed-cheap-loans-Celtic-Football-Club.html

    "The Co-operative Bank has come under fire for dishing out £33.2million in cheap loans and overdrafts to Celtic Football Club, which was chaired by former Labour home secretary John Reid"

    "Labour’s former energy minister Brian Wilson joined the Celtic board in 2005 and remains a director."

    "The latest company accounts for Celtic show it has a £12million overdraft facility charging an average of 1.5 per cent over the year to June 30 2013.
    This is based on one percentage point above the Bank of England’s base rate, which is currently 0.5 per cent.

    The remainder is made up of a £21.2million long-term loan, with an average rate of 1.65 per cent. This makes even Labour’s recent £1.2million cheap loan at 4 per cent – or 3.5 per cent above Base Rate – look expensive.

    Co-op’s hugely generous terms once again highlight the close links between the scandal-hit lender and the upper echelons of the Labour Party."

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    tim,

    "If we got rid of 10,000 migrants, who would do the work?""

    We managed in the 1960s as many of us weren't technically unemployed. I remember having to leave early on Thursday afternoons so some of the gang could sign on. And on one particular day, we had the police stop the gang van so they could check on who was moonlighting.

    But Simmonds is tight about the benefit for farmers. Having a stable hard-working, low-paid workforce is great.
  • FPT:

    Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...

    Help to Buy is about to become largely irrelevant as big lenders are returning to offering 95% LTV mortgages. Job done there.
    Looks like a big mistake.
    95% LTV is fine, particularly at a time when the market across the UK is still well below its peak five years ago and even further below in real terms (I would exclude London from that and were I a lender, would certainly be cautious about lending 90%+ there).
  • TGOHF said:

    Labour and the Co op : a cheap source of funds well below the market rates for Labour and their cronies- meanwhile no bond payments for savers this year..

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2514682/Co-op-Bank-slammed-cheap-loans-Celtic-Football-Club.html

    "The Co-operative Bank has come under fire for dishing out £33.2million in cheap loans and overdrafts to Celtic Football Club, which was chaired by former Labour home secretary John Reid"

    "Labour’s former energy minister Brian Wilson joined the Celtic board in 2005 and remains a director."

    "The latest company accounts for Celtic show it has a £12million overdraft facility charging an average of 1.5 per cent over the year to June 30 2013.
    This is based on one percentage point above the Bank of England’s base rate, which is currently 0.5 per cent.

    The remainder is made up of a £21.2million long-term loan, with an average rate of 1.65 per cent. This makes even Labour’s recent £1.2million cheap loan at 4 per cent – or 3.5 per cent above Base Rate – look expensive.

    Co-op’s hugely generous terms once again highlight the close links between the scandal-hit lender and the upper echelons of the Labour Party."

    If that was done all above board it would mean that Celtic football club was less of a credit risk than the most stable sovereign governments. Now what happened to that other most similar ,in terms of size, location and trade, Glasgow club the other year? Rangers was it?

    The Co-op cannot claim to be ethical and lend money on the cheap to its mates. Its as simple as that
  • Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think UKIP can win more than about 5 seats at the next election, which is why I think they ought to instead concentrate on maximising their share of the vote across the country. If they do that they may win the 5 anyway. But targetting 20 seats at the expense of national share would be a mistake from their point of view IMO.

    No, Good targeting is what counts under FPTP. Fight hard everywhere, and one can be pretty certain that UKIP will win no seats, even if they end up with perhaps 20 seats where they poll 20%+. One mustn't try to run before one can walk.
    That depends on what UKIP's grand strategy is. Does it want to be primarily a political party or a pressure group?

    If it wants to espouse EU exit above all else, it's best bet is to fight hard everywhere, cause as much trauma as possible for the existing Westminster parties and aim to have one of them adopt EU exit as a policy, or at least offer a credible exit route. On the other hand, if EU exit is secondary to establishing an elected presence and then growing it over the decades, it would be better concentrating on half a dozen constituencies.
  • Charles said:

    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM.

    One might think that part of Cameron's work as a UK pm was to preserve the UK, he certainly likes to give that impression. However I accept that his heart isn't really in it, and he's not very good at it.
    Salmond has done far more to preserve the UK this week than anyone.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM.

    One might think that part of Cameron's work as a UK pm was to preserve the UK, he certainly likes to give that impression. However I accept that his heart isn't really in it, and he's not very good at it.
    Sure he has all sorts of responsibilities and needs to allocate his time accordingly. I'd say spending time with Merkel and Hollande et al is more important than making a bunch of third tier celebutards feel even more self-important than they do already
  • Charles said:

    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM.

    One might think that part of Cameron's work as a UK pm was to preserve the UK, he certainly likes to give that impression. However I accept that his heart isn't really in it, and he's not very good at it.
    Salmond has done far more to preserve the UK this week than anyone.
    I think the job of the UK PM is to preserve the UK as long as its nation states want to. Its rather strange for a nationalist like you to demand the UK PM has to be against your view? Takes all sorts I suppose
  • sorry David, that was meant for Uniondivvie
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    FPT:

    Sorry to go off-topic immediately, but the TV should just said something about Carney recommending changing help-to-buy significantly. Unless I misheard, which is quite possible as I was (ahem) supposed to be working ...

    Help to Buy is about to become largely irrelevant as big lenders are returning to offering 95% LTV mortgages. Job done there.
    Looks like a big mistake.
    95% LTV is fine, particularly at a time when the market across the UK is still well below its peak five years ago and even further below in real terms (I would exclude London from that and were I a lender, would certainly be cautious about lending 90%+ there).
    At a time when the Bank of England base rate is near zero? It's asking for trouble. Let people have their 'dream' as Cameron would put it and then wait for them to fall into bankruptcy when rates rise.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2013
    @david_herdson

    'Salmond has done far more to preserve the UK this week than anyone.'

    SNP currency position shredded by Lamont & EU membership shredded by Davidson in yesterday's debate.

    Maybe the voter bribes,free childcare etc. will work but on the substantive issues it's hopeless.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    CD13 said:

    tim,

    "If we got rid of 10,000 migrants, who would do the work?""

    We managed in the 1960s as many of us weren't technically unemployed. I remember having to leave early on Thursday afternoons so some of the gang could sign on. And on one particular day, we had the police stop the gang van so they could check on who was moonlighting.

    But Simmonds is tight about the benefit for farmers. Having a stable hard-working, low-paid workforce is great.

    In the 1960s and 70s many people were employed by large companies and nationalised industries even though they were not doing any real work. At that time employers were much more wary of making people redundant partly because of union power but also because there was stronger sense of social obligation - it was not good form for an employer to turn a man (and it usually was a man in those days) on to the street because how would he feed his wife and kids?

    So in effect the state was paying for unproductive people through subsidies to nationalised industries and other companies (there were a lot of subsidies in then - food was subsidised for a time in the 1970s).

    Thatcher got rid of all that and threw unproductive people on to the dole instead. So instead of subsidies to employers the state picked up the cost of benefits. And instead of the semblance of work people were thrust into the reality of idleness. But the cost to the taxpayer remained much the same.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527

    TGOHF said:

    Labour and the Co op : a cheap source of funds well below the market rates for Labour and their cronies- meanwhile no bond payments for savers this year..

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2514682/Co-op-Bank-slammed-cheap-loans-Celtic-Football-Club.html

    "The Co-operative Bank has come under fire for dishing out £33.2million in cheap loans and overdrafts to Celtic Football Club, which was chaired by former Labour home secretary John Reid"

    "Labour’s former energy minister Brian Wilson joined the Celtic board in 2005 and remains a director."

    "The latest company accounts for Celtic show it has a £12million overdraft facility charging an average of 1.5 per cent over the year to June 30 2013.
    This is based on one percentage point above the Bank of England’s base rate, which is currently 0.5 per cent.

    The remainder is made up of a £21.2million long-term loan, with an average rate of 1.65 per cent. This makes even Labour’s recent £1.2million cheap loan at 4 per cent – or 3.5 per cent above Base Rate – look expensive.

    Co-op’s hugely generous terms once again highlight the close links between the scandal-hit lender and the upper echelons of the Labour Party."

    If that was done all above board it would mean that Celtic football club was less of a credit risk than the most stable sovereign governments. Now what happened to that other most similar ,in terms of size, location and trade, Glasgow club the other year? Rangers was it?

    The Co-op cannot claim to be ethical and lend money on the cheap to its mates. Its as simple as that
    In 2010 the Co-op Bank wrote off £17 million of loans to Sheffield Wednesday FC.

    I was furious at the time. I'm not sure how investing in the football bubble (and yes Tim, that is a real bubble) could be seen as being an ethical use of cash.
  • Charles said:

    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM.

    One might think that part of Cameron's work as a UK pm was to preserve the UK, he certainly likes to give that impression. However I accept that his heart isn't really in it, and he's not very good at it.
    Salmond has done far more to preserve the UK this week than anyone.
    You'll be willing to bet on a big surge for No in the next independence poll then?

  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    edited November 2013



    In the 1960s and 70s many people were employed by large companies and nationalised industries even though they were not doing any real work. At that time employers were much more wary of making people redundant partly because of union power but also because there was stronger sense of social obligation - it was not good form for an employer to turn a man (and it usually was a man in those days) on to the street because how would he feed his wife and kids?

    So in effect the state was paying for unproductive people through subsidies to nationalised industries and other companies (there were a lot of subsidies in then - food was subsidised for a time in the 1970s).

    Thatcher got rid of all that and threw unproductive people on to the dole instead. So instead of subsidies to employers the state picked up the cost of benefits. And instead of the semblance of work people were thrust into the reality of idleness. But the cost to the taxpayer remained much the same.....

    The original policy was probably sensible in the immediate post war years (the nation had to send lots of young men to fight, some came back injured, others didn't come back at all). Was it fair to deny them a job afterwards, no it wasn't, and there was lots to do after the war.

    The issue is, how long do you keep it going. 1965 was only twenty years after WW2, so maybe that would have been a good point. 1979 was 34 years after WW2, and closer to WW2 than we are now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Charles said:

    @theuniondivvie FPT

    Re: parties

    It's a work event: he's hosting it in his capacity as PM.

    One might think that part of Cameron's work as a UK pm was to preserve the UK, he certainly likes to give that impression. However I accept that his heart isn't really in it, and he's not very good at it.
    Salmond has done far more to preserve the UK this week than anyone.
    You'll be willing to bet on a big surge for No in the next independence poll then?

    My guess is it wont really shift things at all.

  • Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think UKIP can win more than about 5 seats at the next election, which is why I think they ought to instead concentrate on maximising their share of the vote across the country. If they do that they may win the 5 anyway. But targetting 20 seats at the expense of national share would be a mistake from their point of view IMO.

    No, Good targeting is what counts under FPTP. Fight hard everywhere, and one can be pretty certain that UKIP will win no seats, even if they end up with perhaps 20 seats where they poll 20%+. One mustn't try to run before one can walk.
    That depends on what UKIP's grand strategy is. Does it want to be primarily a political party or a pressure group?

    If it wants to espouse EU exit above all else, it's best bet is to fight hard everywhere, cause as much trauma as possible for the existing Westminster parties and aim to have one of them adopt EU exit as a policy, or at least offer a credible exit route. On the other hand, if EU exit is secondary to establishing an elected presence and then growing it over the decades, it would be better concentrating on half a dozen constituencies.
    The only sure way for UKIP to achieve an EU exit is to win a majority at a general election with an EU exit being the first policy of their manifesto.

    An EU exit may well happen by other routes before they achieve this, but I don't see how not trying to achieve the above will make it any more likely, rather than less likely.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,752
    edited November 2013
    Charles said:

    more important than making a bunch of third tier celebutards feel even more self-important than they do already

    Perhaps Dave should have thought of that before coming up with such an orgy of 'celebutard' (nice btw) celebration, him being so averse to celebrity showboating and all.

    'The prime minister requests the pleasure of the company of
    -------------
    to celebrate St Andrew's Day and the contribution Scotland makes to the United Kingdom and the wider world.'

    Unless something better turns up.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2013
    Sean_F said:


    25-30 is hugely over-optimistic - unless the Conservative Party were to implode.

    If the Survation results were repeated nationwide, then according to Baxter we'd get 390 Labour, 90 UKIP, 87 Conservatives, 54 Lib Dems.

    Labour would be winning huge numbers of seats on ridiculously low vote shares.

    I think we have to be careful not to reject results because they sound crazy. FPTP often does crazy things. In 1993 the Progressive Conservatives in Canada went from an overall majority to two seats. Wikipedia has a nice collection of wipe-out results:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wipeout_(elections)

    One question I haven't really been able to get a grip on is how bad things are for grassroots Tory parties facing UKIP defections, and how much it matters. I wonder if we won't be seeing a few shock results here and there where the incumbent doesn't see the danger until it's too late and their activist base stays at home or helps the opposition.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: now confirmed, Brawn says aufwiedersehen Mercedes:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25125831

    It'll be quite interesting to see how UKIP does both in the euros and in the General Election.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:


    25-30 is hugely over-optimistic - unless the Conservative Party were to implode.

    If the Survation results were repeated nationwide, then according to Baxter we'd get 390 Labour, 90 UKIP, 87 Conservatives, 54 Lib Dems.

    Labour would be winning huge numbers of seats on ridiculously low vote shares.

    I think we have to be careful not to reject results because they sound crazy. FPTP often does crazy things. In 1993 the Progressive Conservatives in Canada went from an overall majority to two seats. Wikipedia has a nice collection of wipe-out results:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wipeout_(elections)

    One question I haven't really been able to get a grip on is how bad things are for grassroots Tory parties facing UKIP defections, and how much it matters. I wonder if we won't be seeing a few shock results here and there where the incumbent doesn't see the danger until it's too late and their activist base stays at home or helps the opposition.
    Canada does have a habit of coming up with extraordinary results.

    Here, the 1920s were a time when all sorts of things happened politically that no one could have predicted.

  • After the American B52s, now South Korea and Japan have flown through China's new air defence zone without filing flight plans ahead of time:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    Sean_F said:


    25-30 is hugely over-optimistic - unless the Conservative Party were to implode.

    If the Survation results were repeated nationwide, then according to Baxter we'd get 390 Labour, 90 UKIP, 87 Conservatives, 54 Lib Dems.

    Labour would be winning huge numbers of seats on ridiculously low vote shares.

    I think we have to be careful not to reject results because they sound crazy. FPTP often does crazy things. In 1993 the Progressive Conservatives in Canada went from an overall majority to two seats. Wikipedia has a nice collection of wipe-out results:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wipeout_(elections)

    One question I haven't really been able to get a grip on is how bad things are for grassroots Tory parties facing UKIP defections, and how much it matters. I wonder if we won't be seeing a few shock results here and there where the incumbent doesn't see the danger until it's too late and their activist base stays at home or helps the opposition.
    WRT your last paragraph, we might get some sort of idea in the next round of local elections.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547



    In the 1960s and 70s many people were employed by large companies and nationalised industries even though they were not doing any real work. At that time employers were much more wary of making people redundant partly because of union power but also because there was stronger sense of social obligation - it was not good form for an employer to turn a man (and it usually was a man in those days) on to the street because how would he feed his wife and kids?

    So in effect the state was paying for unproductive people through subsidies to nationalised industries and other companies (there were a lot of subsidies in then - food was subsidised for a time in the 1970s).

    Thatcher got rid of all that and threw unproductive people on to the dole instead. So instead of subsidies to employers the state picked up the cost of benefits. And instead of the semblance of work people were thrust into the reality of idleness. But the cost to the taxpayer remained much the same.....

    The original policy was probably sensible in the immediate post war years (the nation had to send lots of young men to fight, some came back injured, others didn't come back at all). Was it fair to deny them a job afterwards, no it wasn't, and there was lots to do after the war.

    The issue is, how long do you keep it going. 1965 was only twenty years after WW2, so maybe that would have been a good point. 1979 was 34 years after WW2, and closer to WW2 than we are now.
    IMHO it would be better to move back toward the post-war system. Recognise that there will always be some people who are lazy/stupid/incompetent or otherwise unemployable and put them on jobs like road-sweeping or park keeping or just hanging around in places where human presence is desirable (eg railway stations late at night). Better than keeping them on benefits. We also need to move away from the idea that if you send the unemployed on endless schemes and "training" they will be transformed into eager and productive workers who will knock the spots of Polish plumbers - this kind of b*llocks is promoted by all parties - we need a bit more realism here.
  • Sean_F said:


    Canada does have a habit of coming up with extraordinary results.

    Here, the 1920s were a time when all sorts of things happened politically that no one could have predicted.

    Right - I guess the betting angle is that there's likely to be value in logical but ridiculous-sounding outcomes...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527

    After the American B52s, now South Korea and Japan have flown through China's new air defence zone without filing flight plans ahead of time:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957

    There's one thing about this story that amazes me: the B52 is still a very capable and useful aircraft, despite having been on active service for nearly sixty years. Although updated, the newest airframes are over fifty years old. It would be like us still flying the Vulcan bomber on combat roles.

    It surely has to be a candidate for the most capable and successful combat plane ever?

    It has none of the sexiness of the B1-B (or even better, the Tu-160), or the sheer expense of the B2, but it has been massively successful.

    Also, B52's were extensively used against Vietnam and surrounding countries up to 1973. I wonder if the US chose it for that reason. A better message ...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    After the American B52s, now South Korea and Japan have flown through China's new air defence zone without filing flight plans ahead of time:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957

    There's one thing about this story that amazes me: the B52 is still a very capable and useful aircraft, despite having been on active service for nearly sixty years. Although updated, the newest airframes are over fifty years old. It would be like us still flying the Vulcan bomber on combat roles.

    It surely has to be a candidate for the most capable and successful combat plane ever?

    It has none of the sexiness of the B1-B (or even better, the Tu-160), or the sheer expense of the B2, but it has been massively successful.

    Also, B52's were extensively used against Vietnam and surrounding countries up to 1973. I wonder if the US chose it for that reason. A better message ...
    And, it's likely to be in service for at least another 20 years.

  • Mr. Jessop, it's interesting how certain technology appears, if not quite timeless, to have a surprising longevity, given the nature and speed of technological progress.

    On a sort-of related note, the Williams car this year was actually faster when they took the coanda exhaust off the back (it's banned next year so they were testing that, and both drivers reported it improved the car).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Labour and the Co op : a cheap source of funds well below the market rates for Labour and their cronies- meanwhile no bond payments for savers this year..

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2514682/Co-op-Bank-slammed-cheap-loans-Celtic-Football-Club.html

    "The Co-operative Bank has come under fire for dishing out £33.2million in cheap loans and overdrafts to Celtic Football Club, which was chaired by former Labour home secretary John Reid"

    "Labour’s former energy minister Brian Wilson joined the Celtic board in 2005 and remains a director."

    "The latest company accounts for Celtic show it has a £12million overdraft facility charging an average of 1.5 per cent over the year to June 30 2013.
    This is based on one percentage point above the Bank of England’s base rate, which is currently 0.5 per cent.

    The remainder is made up of a £21.2million long-term loan, with an average rate of 1.65 per cent. This makes even Labour’s recent £1.2million cheap loan at 4 per cent – or 3.5 per cent above Base Rate – look expensive.

    Co-op’s hugely generous terms once again highlight the close links between the scandal-hit lender and the upper echelons of the Labour Party."

    If that was done all above board it would mean that Celtic football club was less of a credit risk than the most stable sovereign governments. Now what happened to that other most similar ,in terms of size, location and trade, Glasgow club the other year? Rangers was it?

    The Co-op cannot claim to be ethical and lend money on the cheap to its mates. Its as simple as that
    In 2010 the Co-op Bank wrote off £17 million of loans to Sheffield Wednesday FC.

    I was furious at the time. I'm not sure how investing in the football bubble (and yes Tim, that is a real bubble) could be seen as being an ethical use of cash.

    Any links between the Owls and Labour ? Board members ? Season ticket holders ?

  • After the American B52s, now South Korea and Japan have flown through China's new air defence zone without filing flight plans ahead of time:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957

    Also, B52's were extensively used against Vietnam and surrounding countries up to 1973. I wonder if the US chose it for that reason. A better message ...
    Or because it would be completely un-missable on Chinese radar......
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour MP Tom Harris:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10477858/Object-to-mass-immigration-from-the-EU-Join--Romaphobe-club.html

    "It's not bigoted to worry about filthy and vastly overcrowded living arrangements, organised aggressive begging and the ghetto-isation of local streets.

    Maybe the fears of a “flood” of eastern Europeans queuing up at Calais as December 31 ticks away are unfounded. No one any longer believes government estimates of how many are likely to come here anyway. But when David Cameron talks about making the UK benefit system less attractive to new arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria, he’s speaking to a lot more people than just his own party’s Right wing.
    And my own party would do well to recognise that."

    Wow.

    That is very similar in parts to a greatly misunderstood speech on the same subject from many years ago.

    Well said Tom Harris, it's enough to make me consider voting Labour

    Your a fool if you do,harris is a very small voice in a party that still supports mass immigration.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774

    And the BoE's news release:
    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2013/177.aspx

    A bit better than tweets. ;-)

    The BoE said:
    "The changes we are making have no implications for HM Government’s Help to Buy scheme, which is designed to address the specific issue of access to mortgages for borrowers without large deposits, unlike the FLS which was designed to boost lending more generally."

    In short housebuilding no longer needs access to cheap cash as there is increased demand, not least by HTB so FLS is better deployed elsewhere. As was obvious when he was before the Treasury Select Committee this week the Governor and Osborne are very much singing off the same hymn sheet and suggestions otherwise are, well, just silly.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour MP Tom Harris:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10477858/Object-to-mass-immigration-from-the-EU-Join--Romaphobe-club.html

    "It's not bigoted to worry about filthy and vastly overcrowded living arrangements, organised aggressive begging and the ghetto-isation of local streets.

    Maybe the fears of a “flood” of eastern Europeans queuing up at Calais as December 31 ticks away are unfounded. No one any longer believes government estimates of how many are likely to come here anyway. But when David Cameron talks about making the UK benefit system less attractive to new arrivals from Romania and Bulgaria, he’s speaking to a lot more people than just his own party’s Right wing.
    And my own party would do well to recognise that."

    Wow.

    That is very similar in parts to a greatly misunderstood speech on the same subject from many years ago.

    Well said Tom Harris, it's enough to make me consider voting Labour

    Your a fool if you do,harris is a very small voice in a party that still supports mass immigration.
    You're right, I wont!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited November 2013
    I have a feeling the Chinese will soon be deploying very close/aggressive escorts through that air space
  • Sean_F said:


    And, it's likely to be in service for at least another 20 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B52#Continued_service

    ..it intends to keep the B-52H in service until 2045, nearly 90 years after the B-52 first entered service and an unprecedented length of service for any aircraft, civilian or military
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527

    After the American B52s, now South Korea and Japan have flown through China's new air defence zone without filing flight plans ahead of time:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957

    Also, B52's were extensively used against Vietnam and surrounding countries up to 1973. I wonder if the US chose it for that reason. A better message ...
    Or because it would be completely un-missable on Chinese radar......
    Yes, that would be a more likely reason. Whatever else it may be, the B52 is not stealthy. Send in something more modern, and you just give the Chinese an opportunity to tune their radars to your newest kit.

    It's quite a worrying move by China. They really are giving signs of expansionism.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,971
    edited November 2013
    @TGHOF

    For quite a few years, Labour MP Joe Ashton was concurrently a Director of Sheffield Wednesday

    This was the Joe Ashton

    Police have confirmed Labour MP Joe Ashton was found at a Thai massage parlour when they conducted a raid on the premises.

    The information given by the MP was "misleading" and a computer check had to be made to determine his identity, Northamptonshire's Chief Constable Chris Fox said.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/297721.stm
  • Sean_F said:


    And, it's likely to be in service for at least another 20 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B52#Continued_service

    ..it intends to keep the B-52H in service until 2045, nearly 90 years after the B-52 first entered service and an unprecedented length of service for any aircraft, civilian or military
    Just reading the Wikipedia thing on how it got designed:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-52_Stratofortress

    I love the way they twat around for several years with all kinds of official proposals and expensive prototypes, then it gets rejected on a Thursday evening and they call over a couple of engineers who happen to be in town and get a whole new design sorted over the weekend.


  • In 2010 the Co-op Bank wrote off £17 million of loans to Sheffield Wednesday FC.

    I was furious at the time. I'm not sure how investing in the football bubble (and yes Tim, that is a real bubble) could be seen as being an ethical use of cash.

    In Wednesday's case they didn't really have an option - it was that or the club went bust and they got no money back. Unlike other clubs who spent big (although Wednesday didn't even spend that big, just bought bad/injured players and Di Canio who swanned off) and then dropped out of the Premier League at precisely the wrong moment, Wednesday didn't go into administration soon after but attempted to service the Co-Op loans for over a decade, crippling the club competitively in the process and leading to a situation where due to another relegation, the club would've gone under and no one would've got anything.

    In comparison Leeds (twice), Leicester, Coventry and many others went into admin much sooner and paid tiny amounts in the pound to their creditors and regained financial sanity much more after the ITV Digital collapse meant that the money outside the prem was greatly reduced.

    At the time of relegation from the prem the club owed £16m to Co-Op - for which you can blame the ludicrous stewardship of current FA Chairman and paddling pool enthusiast 'Sir' Dave Richards. A large amount - but serviceable in the Premiership or in theory by player sales and not Leeds or Rangers scale, but bad appointments and signings then led to relegation and players which had been worth £2-£3m now being worth nothing and clogging up the wage bill.

    In 2010 despite 0 transfer spend for 10 years the debt was £23m, £6m of which the Co-Op got back from the new owner Mandaric. Not ideal by any means, but a lot better deal than Leeds' creditors got out of Ken Bates.

    Less a case of cheap money and a bubble, more of Co-Op desperately trying to somehow eke out a return on their loan by allowing the club to nurse the debt until either a buyer arrived or had a miracle season a la Blackpool or Burnley and returned to the top flight.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527

    Sean_F said:


    And, it's likely to be in service for at least another 20 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B52#Continued_service

    ..it intends to keep the B-52H in service until 2045, nearly 90 years after the B-52 first entered service and an unprecedented length of service for any aircraft, civilian or military
    It'll last 100 years or more, and long after the B1-B is retired. Despite costing more than the B1-B to operate:
    http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/

    The reason is simple: it does the job well, and creating a new airframe to fulfil the same role would cost countless billions. Why replace it if it still performs, and has not reached it's fatigue life?
  • It's quite a worrying move by China. They really are giving signs of expansionism.

    TBF the Japanese have been escalating, too. Each side's responding to the side's moves, and neither side has the political space to let their opponent's last move go unanswered...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    edited November 2013



    In Wednesday's case they didn't really have an option - it was that or the club went bust and they got no money back. Unlike other clubs who spent big (although Wednesday didn't even spend that big, just bought bad/injured players and Di Canio who swanned off) and then dropped out of the Premier League at precisely the wrong moment, Wednesday didn't go into administration soon after but attempted to service the Co-Op loans for over a decade, crippling the club competitively in the process and leading to a situation where due to another relegation, the club would've gone under and no one would've got anything.

    In comparison Leeds (twice), Leicester, Coventry and many others went into admin much sooner and paid tiny amounts in the pound to their creditors and regained financial sanity much more after the ITV Digital collapse meant that the money outside the prem was greatly reduced.

    At the time of relegation from the prem the club owed £16m to Co-Op - for which you can blame the ludicrous stewardship of current FA Chairman and paddling pool enthusiast 'Sir' Dave Richards. A large amount - but serviceable in the Premiership or in theory by player sales and not Leeds or Rangers scale, but bad appointments and signings then led to relegation and players which had been worth £2-£3m now being worth nothing and clogging up the wage bill.

    In 2010 despite 0 transfer spend for 10 years the debt was £23m, £6m of which the Co-Op got back from the new owner Mandaric. Not ideal by any means, but a lot better deal than Leeds' creditors got out of Ken Bates.

    Less a case of cheap money and a bubble, more of Co-Op desperately trying to somehow eke out a return on their loan by allowing the club to nurse the debt until either a buyer arrived or had a miracle season a la Blackpool or Burnley and returned to the top flight.

    Yep, I agree that the deal *may* have been the best on the table at the time. What annoyed me was that a so-called ethical bank had got so heavily involved in football to begin with.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    The Lightning went into service in 1954 IIRC. Various versions were in service for over 50 years. No doubt there are experts on here who can put me right as to whether this was basically the same plane or completely different varients.

    What is clear, I think, is that WW2 and Korea gave a fantastic lift to military aircraft design which was not really matched until the American super budgets of the 80s produced stealth technology.
  • They already hate schoolgirl education activists and regularly issue statements against a government they are trying to topple. But now the Pakistani Taliban have found a new target for their anger: unpatriotic media admiration for the Indian batsman Sachin Tendulkar.

    Lavish praise for the recently retired cricketer in the Pakistani press has so irritated the militant group that it has released a video ordering newspapers and TV stations to stop promoting him.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/28/taliban-media-unpatriotic-sachin-tendulkar
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527

    Sean_F said:


    And, it's likely to be in service for at least another 20 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B52#Continued_service

    ..it intends to keep the B-52H in service until 2045, nearly 90 years after the B-52 first entered service and an unprecedented length of service for any aircraft, civilian or military
    Just reading the Wikipedia thing on how it got designed:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-52_Stratofortress

    I love the way they twat around for several years with all kinds of official proposals and expensive prototypes, then it gets rejected on a Thursday evening and they call over a couple of engineers who happen to be in town and get a whole new design sorted over the weekend.
    "All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and politics."

    - Sir Sidney Camm.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    tim said:

    @BusinessDesk: Mark Carney slams brakes on George Osborne's housing market boom | Phillip Inman http://t.co/m9eVnRfMOp

    You should work for The Guardian as a headline writer (or in Labour's comms dept). They are very good at not telling the truth, especially when a political point is to be made.

  • Look Squirrel

    Scunthorpe fans asked not to dress as squirrels for Alan Knill return

    • Former Scunthorpe manager injured in crash with rodent
    • 'I was flying through the air – I could have died,' he says

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/nov/28/scunthorpe-fans-squirrels-knill-plymouth
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10479466/Boris-Johnson-some-people-are-too-stupid-to-get-on-in-life.html

    If you believe "some people are too stupid to get on" then logically shouldn't you be be in favour of an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?

    If you support unlimited mass immigration and amnesties for illegals *and* believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then isn't that pretty much explicitly waging economic warfare on the stupid for the benefit of the filthy rich - (as opposed to the non-filthy rich).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Just spent a little while going through the BBC's excellent 2010 election map. To be honest, looking at that, if Ed can't win 40 seats and make Labour the largest party, he's cr*p. He doesn't need to worry too much about London, there aren't many seats around there that will be easy pickings. Should be 7/8 in both the East Midlands and north west.

    What is talked about enough is what will happen to the Lib Dims in Scotland? Could be another easy 4-5 seats for Ed there.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MrJones said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10479466/Boris-Johnson-some-people-are-too-stupid-to-get-on-in-life.html

    If you believe "some people are too stupid to get on" then logically shouldn't you be be in favour of an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?

    If you support unlimited mass immigration and amnesties for illegals *and* believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then isn't that pretty much explicitly waging economic warfare on the stupid for the benefit of the filthy rich - (as opposed to the non-filthy rich).

    What do you recommend we do with low IQ bigots who post on betting websites?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527
    DavidL said:

    The Lightning went into service in 1954 IIRC. Various versions were in service for over 50 years. No doubt there are experts on here who can put me right as to whether this was basically the same plane or completely different varients.

    What is clear, I think, is that WW2 and Korea gave a fantastic lift to military aircraft design which was not really matched until the American super budgets of the 80s produced stealth technology.

    Really? Without turning this into planespotters-r-us, the Lightning was introduced into service in 1959, and last retired from Saudi use in 1986 and RAF in 1988. I'm not sure any were flying in service after that date. Therefore less than 30 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Electric_Lightning

    Also, the US were investing in stealth from the mid-1970s; the Have Blue prototype first flew in 1977, and the F117 Stealth Fighter in 1981. Therefore it was well before Reagan's military spending ramp.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Have_Blue
  • I've just seen that the Christian B&B owners in Cornwall who turned away a gay couple have had their case at the Supreme Court turned down. BBC report here.

    Is anyone bothered about this? I'm a Christian - evangelical-ish but not sure where I stand personally on what God things about same-sex, um, sex; but strongly liberal in that I think the state shouldn't treat people differently based upon the gender of their partner. So I think it's absolutely right that this the B&B owners lost their case, and I rather liked what Stonewall said in their statement:

    'Some might suggest that, rather than pursuing this case, a far more Christian thing to do would be to fight the evils of poverty and disease worldwide.'
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Rebecca Keating ‏@RebeccaKeating 2m
    BIS Sec Vince Cable warns the housing market in "areas like London are in danger of getting us back into boom bust territory"

    Thats the policy aim though.

    Will anyone care what the randy old goat spins if you post this a forth time ?



  • Yep, I agree that the deal *may* have been the best on the table at the time. What annoyed me was that a so-called ethical bank had got so heavily involved in football to begin with.

    My point is that as a bank they loaned Wednesday money at a time when loaning money to what was then a mid-table Premier League side was a perfectly reasonable business proposition - in the mid 90s with crowds on the up, a team that had finished high in the league on a number of occasions, a large fanbase Hillsborough done up for Euro 96 and Sky money increasing hugely.

    Dave Richards and the management then made a string of almost unbelievably bad decisions which negated all these advantages- not by spending hugely beyond their means but sacking competent managers and appointing dolts who signed a collection of players who relegated the club and were then worth next to nothing. From then on it was a case of the Co-Op trying to get their money back, not helped by the collapse of ITV Digital which cost football league clubs millions.

    The situation is more like lending HMV money at the height of DVD and CD sales being popular, not realising that the management wouldn't have the sense to work out that online sales were going to be pretty important in a few years.

    I agree with you that after the ITV Digital collapse, wages exploding and it being clear that the new money in football arguably greatly increased the incentives to financial mismanagement (creating a temptation to overspend to stay or become competitive and reap future rewards) loaning to football clubs looked a lot more foolish and unethical.

    In this case I just don't think it's true - you had a business that was valuable to the community, did a lot of good work and was seemingly in a growing market that happened to be so badly managed that it squandered those advantages and found itself in the mire.

    In this case I think it's less the Co-Op's fault and more the bloke with the knighthood enjoying free lunches at the FA.
  • DavidL said:

    The Lightning went into service in 1954 IIRC. Various versions were in service for over 50 years. No doubt there are experts on here who can put me right as to whether this was basically the same plane or completely different varients.

    What is clear, I think, is that WW2 and Korea gave a fantastic lift to military aircraft design which was not really matched until the American super budgets of the 80s produced stealth technology.

    Really? Without turning this into planespotters-r-us, the Lightning was introduced into service in 1959, and last retired from Saudi use in 1986 and RAF in 1988. I'm not sure any were flying in service after that date. Therefore less than 30 years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Electric_Lightning

    Also, the US were investing in stealth from the mid-1970s; the Have Blue prototype first flew in 1977, and the F117 Stealth Fighter in 1981. Therefore it was well before Reagan's military spending ramp.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Have_Blue
    I saw a TV program the other day which had a Lightning in the South African Air Force. Looks like it was quite recent, it featured Brian Cox (ah, Wikipedia you're my friend. Filmed in 2009, the aircraft crashed soon afterwards).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    If you go back through the last 6 months of ICM polling, it suggests the Lib Dems could lose 2/3 of their Scottish vote. Another half dozen seats for Ed without having to lift a finger?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    saddened said:

    MrJones said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10479466/Boris-Johnson-some-people-are-too-stupid-to-get-on-in-life.html

    If you believe "some people are too stupid to get on" then logically shouldn't you be be in favour of an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?

    If you support unlimited mass immigration and amnesties for illegals *and* believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then isn't that pretty much explicitly waging economic warfare on the stupid for the benefit of the filthy rich - (as opposed to the non-filthy rich).

    What do you recommend we do with low IQ bigots who post on betting websites?
    What do you recommend we do about people who can't follow simple logic?

    If people believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then logically shouldn't they want an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?
  • saddened said:

    MrJones said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10479466/Boris-Johnson-some-people-are-too-stupid-to-get-on-in-life.html

    If you believe "some people are too stupid to get on" then logically shouldn't you be be in favour of an IQ test as a requirement for immigration?

    If you support unlimited mass immigration and amnesties for illegals *and* believe some percentage of people are too stupid to get on then isn't that pretty much explicitly waging economic warfare on the stupid for the benefit of the filthy rich - (as opposed to the non-filthy rich).

    What do you recommend we do with low IQ bigots who post on betting websites?
    I can only speak for myself but it's good to have MrJones's perspective on the site. And of all the anti-immigration people on the site, which I think is a majority, I think his arguments are the least stupid.

    On the substance of the point, from an economic point of view screening out people who were both stupid and feckless might be a useful thing to do. But in practice immigrants tend to have quite a lot of feck.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    Rebecca Keating ‏@RebeccaKeating 2m
    BIS Sec Vince Cable warns the housing market in "areas like London are in danger of getting us back into boom bust territory"

    Thats the policy aim though.

    Will anyone care what the randy old goat spins if you post this a forth time ?
    trolling tim's tweet tourettes.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,527



    My point is that as a bank they loaned Wednesday money at a time when loaning money to what was then a mid-table Premier League side was a perfectly reasonable business proposition - in the mid 90s with crowds on the up, a team that had finished high in the league on a number of occasions, a large fanbase Hillsborough done up for Euro 96 and Sky money increasing hugely.

    Dave Richards and the management then made a string of almost unbelievably bad decisions which negated all these advantages- not by spending hugely beyond their means but sacking competent managers and appointing dolts who signed a collection of players who relegated the club and were then worth next to nothing. From then on it was a case of the Co-Op trying to get their money back, not helped by the collapse of ITV Digital which cost football league clubs millions.

    The situation is more like lending HMV money at the height of DVD and CD sales being popular, not realising that the management wouldn't have the sense to work out that online sales were going to be pretty important in a few years.

    I agree with you that after the ITV Digital collapse, wages exploding and it being clear that the new money in football arguably greatly increased the incentives to financial mismanagement (creating a temptation to overspend to stay or become competitive and reap future rewards) loaning to football clubs looked a lot more foolish and unethical.

    In this case I just don't think it's true - you had a business that was valuable to the community, did a lot of good work and was seemingly in a growing market that happened to be so badly managed that it squandered those advantages and found itself in the mire.

    In this case I think it's less the Co-Op's fault and more the bloke with the knighthood enjoying free lunches at the FA.

    Are you a fan? ;-)

    I'm very sceptical about such things. It would be interesting to see the terms of the loans, and whether they were realistic at the time, yet alone in hindsight.

    As for value to the community: I daresay they could have loaned (or even given) those millions to local businesses and done much more good to the area.

    Football and F1 are the antithesis of each other: football is a sport that masquerades as a multi-billion dollar business, whilst F1 is a multi-billion dollar business masquerading as a sport.

    F1 works as a business. Football does not.
This discussion has been closed.