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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of electi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of elections of 2013 – tonight’s local by-election

Angmering on Arun (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Ind 1 (Conservative majority of 40)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 1520, 1404, 1324 (Average: 39%) Lib Dem 550 (16%) Lab 538 (15%) Ind 524 (15%) UKIP 517 (15%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jamie Bennett (Lib Dem), Andy Cooper (Con), Carly Goodwin (Lab)

Read the full story here


Comments

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    FPT NP

    AveryLP said:

    Mr. K, it's sad to see you're buying into a revisionist lie about Cameron. He's cocked up enough for genuine criticism without resorting to doublethink about the referendum.

    He kept his promise. He voted for it. The parties that didn't were yellow and red, not blue.

    As for keeping his promise, if he becomes PM next time his backbenchers will axe him if he doesn't. If you don't trust Cameron, you can certainly trust the Conservative Party's fondness for regicide.

    But Cameron hasn't promised a referendum if there isn't a treaty to vote on. He quite ostentatiously evaded answering ("I'm an optimist!"). And there really won't be a treaty to vote on in the next Parliament - nobody really wants one, and the lead-time required would mean that the first draft would be under discussion right now.

    What you would get in 2017 (by which time it's certainly possible that discussions on a treaty will be starting) is a promise to have a referendum in the following Parliament, if you re-elect the Tories AGAIN in 2020. It'd be fun in a morbid sort of way to see how often the trick can be repeated.

    The exact text of the speech pledging the IN/OUT referendum makes it clear that it is not dependent on a new EU treaty but, in the absence of a treaty, a new settlement negotiated by the UK:

    But if there is no appetite for a new Treaty for us all then of course Britain should be ready to address the changes we need in a negotiation with our European partners.

    The next Conservative Manifesto in 2015 will ask for a mandate from the British people for a Conservative Government to negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next Parliament.

    It will be a relationship with the Single Market at its heart.

    And when we have negotiated that new settlement, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice. To stay in the EU on these new terms; or come out altogether.

    It will be an in-out referendum.


    I think you might have looked at a blank sheet of paper and started to hallucinate, Nick.
    "...when we have negotiated that new settlement..."

    Indeed. And when I've won the lottery, I shall be pleased to give you 20% interest on any sum you choose to lend me now.

    Seriously, do you really believe this stuff?
    Yes, I certainly believe the intent.

    And Hague's work at the FCO in auditing the EU competences will be diligently if not faithfully completed.

    And I am equally sure that Angela likes the idea of hiding behind Dave's petticoat.

    But whether the naïveté leads to an entente cordiale universale, I'll pass on that for the moment.

    Start with an aggressive bid, wait to see how the cards fall and then limit your losses if necessary. Not a bad strategy.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Surely Angmering is all Duchy of Norfolk estate.

    Councillors should be appointed by Eddy Fitzalan-Howard not elected.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    How was la fille sautée, M. Smithson?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The YouGov daily poll trend that is no trend. See chart of all April surveys. pic.twitter.com/dIMh665e8z
    We can add that 'surge' to the one Cammie and the tories got for his EU speech of a lifetime. ;)

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    How was la fille sautée, M. Smithson?

    I dread to think.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950
    Mick_Pork said:

    The YouGov daily poll trend that is no trend. See chart of all April surveys. pic.twitter.com/dIMh665e8z
    We can add that 'surge' to the one Cammie and the tories got for his EU speech of a lifetime. ;)



    Calm down, dear! Calm down!

    (It's still mid-term!)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his regular piece. I take it we'll get a bumper edition (or numerous articles) in a fortnight?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Why look at a two week period for a trend? Surely last May, to now is the period of interest.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Go Con!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    If anyone knows of any candidate selections missing from this list I'd be interested to know. Thanks:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    @AveryLP

    Aggressive bid?

    I bet the rest of the EU were quaking in their boots!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    F1: interesting language from Alonso:

    http://www.espn.co.uk/ferrari/motorsport/story/105952.html

    "Lewis [Hamilton in fourth place] is one of the best drivers in the world and last year he put McLaren in a very competitive position and this year he is putting Mercedes in a very competitive position. Once more he is proving his talent. The Red Bull cars are probably the strongest and Kimi is doing a fantastic start to the season and is driving maybe better than anyone, so he deserves to be there."

    Praises Hamilton and Raikkonen as drivers, but the car that Vettel drives.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Interesting Indie front page.

    No wonder Blair has launched a co-ordinated attack on Ed Miliband.

    Ed's committing suicide!

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76604/the_independent_thursday_18th_april_2013.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    Interesting Indie front page.

    No wonder Blair has launched a co-ordinated attack on Ed Miliband.

    Ed's committing suicide!

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76604/the_independent_thursday_18th_april_2013.html

    Increasingly the blank paper is looking the better option.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,541
    Interesting - it's just down the road from the cottage where I stay at weekends. Extremely Tory country, but in a peaceful, olde worlde sort of way rather than a raucous Daily Mail style. People say "Good morning" as you pass them and apologise if they were humming to themselves. I'd have thought UKIP would do quite well, but in their absence I'd imagine the Tory vote share should hold up.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    "Huge housebuilding programme"

    Go for it Ed

    He has just single-handedly lost the election for Labour.

    He has set the entire financial marketplace against him and his party.

    When Chinese investment houses pull out of buying Chinese municipal bonds because their regions and cities are over-leveraging in an economy growing at 8% per annum there is no chance of bond investors supporting a relaxation of fiscal consolidation in a UK economy growing at a good deal less than 2% per annum.

    Madness, tim.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    edited April 2013
    Oh Avery shut up. Honestly. You write this and even you know its wrong. What's more you aren't influencing anyone anywhere. You probably have less years on this earth than you think so don't waste it making up stupid statements on the internet that a couple of hundred people read at most, all of which already have made up their minds..... especially when you don't even believe it yourself.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    "Huge housebuilding programme"

    Go for it Ed

    He has just single-handedly lost the election for Labour.

    He has set the entire financial marketplace against him and his party.

    What's wrong with building houses ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    IOS said:

    Oh Avery shut up. Honestly. You write this and even you know its wrong. What's more you aren't influencing anyone anywhere. You probably have less years on this earth than you think so don't waste it making up stupid statements on the internet that a couple of hundred people read at most, all of which already have made up their minds..... especially when you don't even believe it yourself.

    I think you've just said his comments wound you.
  • re: Boston Marathon bombings, FBI press conference scheduled to start in a few minutes (5pm EDT).

    Given the huge flap over reported arrests that apparently never happened AND new evidence revealed by law enforcment, this one ought to be a hum-dinger.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    @AveryLP

    Aggressive bid?

    I bet the rest of the EU were quaking in their boots!

    Evening, Ben.

    Not a bridge player I assume.

    My ISP went AWOL today so I missed the early threads.

    Did you welcome the Retail Sales figures today?

  • Memorial to Boston Marathon bombing victims - haven't heard it yet, but early reports are that President Obama gave a very good speech today.

    Though personally am more interested in remarks by Cardinal O'Malley. Mainly because he appears to be emerging (or rather continuing to emerge) as key player in reform of Vatican, IF that's actaully in the cards.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    "Huge housebuilding programme"

    Go for it Ed

    He has just single-handedly lost the election for Labour.

    He has set the entire financial marketplace against him and his party.

    What's wrong with building houses ?
    I think Avery meant the commitment to relax austerity and thus spend more.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Thanks for asking.

    On Tuesday evening we had what was amongst one of three meals of our life if not the best here. http://www.lijsterbes.be/over-lijsterbes/de-verlokkingen-van-de-natuur/

    An extraordinary and memorable evening made possible by getting the top five right in the correct order in the Eastleigh by-election.
    AveryLP said:

    How was la fille sautée, M. Smithson?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    tim said:

    @TelegraphNews: Britain is a 'crisis economy', says incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney http://t.co/WEm5egqndC by @PhilAldrick

    "Ms Lagarde’s comments dealt a damaging blow to the Chancellor, whose policies she has previously championed. Her support has been critical to shoring up George Osborne’s credibility in the face of Labour’s attacks.
    Asked specifically about his opinion on the UK reovery, Mr Carney said he would reserve his opinion until he starts at the Bank in July. However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.
    In comments that will further disappoint Mr Osborne, Mr Carney stressed that governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity."

    Oh dear George might have to acquire a spine.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    @TelegraphNews: Britain is a 'crisis economy', says incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney http://t.co/WEm5egqndC by @PhilAldrick

    "Ms Lagarde’s comments dealt a damaging blow to the Chancellor, whose policies she has previously championed. Her support has been critical to shoring up George Osborne’s credibility in the face of Labour’s attacks.
    Asked specifically about his opinion on the UK reovery, Mr Carney said he would reserve his opinion until he starts at the Bank in July. However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.
    In comments that will further disappoint Mr Osborne, Mr Carney stressed that governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity."

    Central bankers play mind games - it's very important. "

    Governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity" is code for "don't expect the Bank of England to change its target to growth - growth is the target of fiscal policy".

    "Tremendous opportunity that is there" = "current long-term projections for growth remain in place".

    "Crisis economy" = expect inflation to be depressed for the short-to-mid-term.

    He's doing his job already. I can't see the article to see what Lagarde has said, but I expect that's not so rosy for the Chancellor.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    @TelegraphNews: Britain is a 'crisis economy', says incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney http://t.co/WEm5egqndC by @PhilAldrick

    "Ms Lagarde’s comments dealt a damaging blow to the Chancellor, whose policies she has previously championed. Her support has been critical to shoring up George Osborne’s credibility in the face of Labour’s attacks.
    Asked specifically about his opinion on the UK reovery, Mr Carney said he would reserve his opinion until he starts at the Bank in July. However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.
    In comments that will further disappoint Mr Osborne, Mr Carney stressed that governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity."

    Oh dear George might have to acquire a spine.
    It's total nonsense, tim.

    I recommend you watch the televised response of Christine Lagarde to Ed Conway's question.

    It was a straight repetition of the IMF's position in its last report on the UK economy. She even repeated first up and twice that the IMF supported the government's fiscal consolidation plans.

    As to the suggestion that Carney's appointment and comments will disappoint George, this is ridiculous. It was George who appointed Carney precisely because he wanted a Governor who will use novel monetary policies to drive the economy.

    And we all know what the novel BoE monetary interventions will be don't we.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @TelegraphNews: Britain is a 'crisis economy', says incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney http://t.co/WEm5egqndC by @PhilAldrick

    "Ms Lagarde’s comments dealt a damaging blow to the Chancellor, whose policies she has previously championed. Her support has been critical to shoring up George Osborne’s credibility in the face of Labour’s attacks.
    Asked specifically about his opinion on the UK reovery, Mr Carney said he would reserve his opinion until he starts at the Bank in July. However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.
    In comments that will further disappoint Mr Osborne, Mr Carney stressed that governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity."

    Oh dear George might have to acquire a spine.
    It's total nonsense, tim.

    I recommend you watch the televised response of Christine Lagarde to Ed Conway's question.

    It was a straight repetition of the IMF's position in its last report on the UK economy. She even repeated first up and twice that the IMF supported the government's fiscal consolidation plans.

    As to the suggestion that Carney's appointment and comments will disappoint George, this is ridiculous. It was George who appointed Carney precisely because he wanted a Governor who will use novel monetary policies to drive the economy.

    And we all know what the novel BoE monetary interventions will be don't we.

    It's the kind of "supportive" comment she'd make about Gordon Brown
  • Gove is probably correct that school holidays are overly long, and shouldn't follow a Victorian agricultural calendar. Let's hope he feels the same way about MPs hours.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Next Gove will be telling me I'm not entitled to a thirteen-week long vacation.

    We'll have to start a riot or something. Maybe even a discussion group.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Thanks for asking.

    On Tuesday evening we had what was amongst one of three meals of our life if not the best here. http://www.lijsterbes.be/over-lijsterbes/de-verlokkingen-van-de-natuur/

    An extraordinary and memorable evening made possible by getting the top five right in the correct order in the Eastleigh by-election.


    AveryLP said:

    How was la fille sautée, M. Smithson?

    Some time since I have been to Bruges, but it and its environs are a true gourmand's delight.

    Belgian cooking at its best matches anything the French can do, provided you are prepared to ignore its impact on your waistline.

    The Finns are very fond of the Rowanberry, which I have always thought looks prettier than it tastes. But the menu looks superb, And not overly rich either.

    You have much to thank Chris Huhne and Vicky Pryce for!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    @Grandiose.
    Building houses will reduce state spending in the medium term and increase tax revenues in the short term.
    It is exactly what Labour should make the centrepiece of its campaign.

    I quite like the idea, as I mentioned this morning. I don't share your confidence that it will eventuate under a government of any colour or colours, however. None of the options sounds plausible.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    I don't agree with the decriminalisation of drugs because I don't believe that criminalisation is failing.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis

    Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:

    16+ age
    any drug down 10%
    any stimulant down 15%
    any Class A drug down 12%

    specifically 16-25
    any drug down 14%
    any stimulant down 30%
    any Class A drug down 19%

    "Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".

    The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."

    Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Mark Carney says UK a crisis economy. Is like when get new builder in, shakes head, says "Who did that? You've had some cowboys in 'ere"
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Mark Carney says UK a crisis economy. Is like when get new builder in, shakes head, says "Who did that? You've had some cowboys in 'ere"

    Carney gave a few hints that not much was going to change - although even if changes were coming, he'd be probably unlikely to flag them up - such as dropping a rather large hint that growth targetting was not on the agenda, certainly not in the sort of role inflation currently has.

  • Grandiose said:

    I don't agree with the decriminalisation of drugs because I don't believe that criminalisation is failing.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis

    Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:

    16+ age
    any drug down 10%
    any stimulant down 15%
    any Class A drug down 12%

    specifically 16-25
    any drug down 14%
    any stimulant down 30%
    any Class A drug down 19%

    "Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".

    The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."

    Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.


    That might be true, but we find drug factories, especially cannabis farms on an increasingly regular basis.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Daily Mail have a nice table, breaking down the May elections into county/unitary/welsh, and giving party candidate totals for each. UKIP are contesting more county council seats than the LDs.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2310978/UKIP-fight-shire-councils-Lib-Dems-new-poll-puts-Farages-anti-EU-party-DOUBLE-Cleggs-support.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    I realise you prefer Osbornes sub prime lending splurge and spending ever more on housing benefit.

    1. I support market pricing of rents even if that means housing benefit costs will need to rise to match the rent increases.

    2. Market prices for social housing rents means that property values should also rise to be broadly equivalent to private sector multiple housing schemes.

    3. Both measures will introduce liquidity into the social housing rental markets as well as to the property ownership, management and maintenance markets.

    4. Councils will find it easier to divest social housing property at fair markets, private sector property companies will be attracted into ownership and management; and construction companies will have an incentive to build for demand.

    5. All of the above will be less costly to the government and taxpayer than increasing central government borrowing to embark upon a massive national council house building programme.

    6. On the mortgage equity and guarantee schemes, these do not constitute sub prime lending by any accepted definition of the term in the mortgage lending business. The loans will be provided only to borrowers complying with normal credit risk criteria.

    7. The purpose of the schemes is to insure house buyers and builders against catastrophic and systemic collapse in house prices. The level of guarantees and equity sharing provided is sufficient to kick start an expansion of house building and purchase in the private sector. It's purpose is to stablilise house prices in a market which has seen consistent real term falls for over five years.

    8. The mortgage and house building stimulus is likely to be a necessary part of a wider scheme to recapitalise and restructure the UK banks, enabling early share sales at higher value and supporting higher levels of credit provision to the household market.

    9. All of the above is entirely consistent with the government's policy of rebalancing the economy by substituting private sector investment for central government investment where the nature of the project and market supports such a transition,

    Your comments on "sub prime lending splurge" and increased spend on housing benefit constitute soundbite smearing rather than worked argument.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    I don't agree with the decriminalisation of drugs because I don't believe that criminalisation is failing.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis

    Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:

    16+ age
    any drug down 10%
    any stimulant down 15%
    any Class A drug down 12%

    specifically 16-25
    any drug down 14%
    any stimulant down 30%
    any Class A drug down 19%

    "Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".

    The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."

    Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.


    That might be true, but we find drug factories, especially cannabis farms on an increasingly regular basis.

    "At 6.9%, cannabis use in the past year now remains at the lowest level since the CSEW measurement began."

    Whatever the flaws of the CSEW style of measurement (and at a third of the public reporting use at least once, the under-reporting can't be too great) they should be the same year-to-year.

    We could have become better at finding them; or we could be import-substituting; or growing could have been shifted from smaller-scale to larger-scale ventures.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    "Huge housebuilding programme"

    Go for it Ed

    He has just single-handedly lost the election for Labour.

    He has set the entire financial marketplace against him and his party.

    What's wrong with building houses ?
    Nothing wrong with building houses, Mr. Brooke.

    The more the merrier.

    But it is not a job for the government to carry out directly.

    Houses can be built by private sector construction companies, financed by private sector banks, and sold at profit to households.

    It is for the government to get the macro-economic measures right to stimulate increased housebuilding and household purchaser/borrower demand. This is what George is attempting to do.


  • Grandiose said:

    Grandiose said:

    I don't agree with the decriminalisation of drugs because I don't believe that criminalisation is failing.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis

    Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:

    16+ age
    any drug down 10%
    any stimulant down 15%
    any Class A drug down 12%

    specifically 16-25
    any drug down 14%
    any stimulant down 30%
    any Class A drug down 19%

    "Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".

    The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."

    Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.


    That might be true, but we find drug factories, especially cannabis farms on an increasingly regular basis.

    "At 6.9%, cannabis use in the past year now remains at the lowest level since the CSEW measurement began."

    Whatever the flaws of the CSEW style of measurement (and at a third of the public reporting use at least once, the under-reporting can't be too great) they should be the same year-to-year.

    We could have become better at finding them; or we could be import-substituting; or growing could have been shifted from smaller-scale to larger-scale ventures.
    We only find 'em 'cos they're burning through the roof, due to bypassed electricity!

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    "This is what George is attempting to do."

    And failing.

    Miserably.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Gove is probably correct that school holidays are overly long, and shouldn't follow a Victorian agricultural calendar. Let's hope he feels the same way about MPs hours.

    Victorian agricultural calendar? That's been debunked I think (off to bed so can't be bothered to check...), here and in the US.
  • Carola said:

    Gove is probably correct that school holidays are overly long, and shouldn't follow a Victorian agricultural calendar. Let's hope he feels the same way about MPs hours.

    Victorian agricultural calendar? That's been debunked I think (off to bed so can't be bothered to check...), here and in the US.
    I did say probably! Anyway, I'm more interested in if Gove thinks that his job has overly long holidays.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "FBI releases photos of Boston suspects":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22211190
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Gone are the days when the PB Tories used to retweet Lagardes comments.

    "The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, said on Thursday that the poor performance of the British economy had left her with no alternative but to call on George Osborne to rethink his austerity strategy.

    Increasing the pressure on the chancellor to change course, Lagarde – who has previously given consistent and public support to the UK's deficit reduction strategy – said the fund had changed its stance as a result of weak economic figures.

    She also signalled that an IMF team would conduct a thorough investigation into the health of the UK when it arrives in London to carry out its annual review under the Washington organisation's article IV programme. Lagarde said she "vividly remembered" the chancellor coming to a meeting of European finance ministers and confessing that he was not proud of "carrying the biggest deficit in the room".

    The IMF had supported the government's attempt to tackle Britain's record peacetime budget deficit, but the backing had never been unconditional, Lagarde insisted. Despite suggestions from the Treasury that there was a split at the fund between pro- and anti-austerity factions, she gave full support to her chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, who warned Osborne this week that he would be "playing with fire" if he continued on his present course.

    Lagarde said: "We have said that should growth abate, should growth be particularly low, then there should be consideration to adjusting by way of slowing the pace. This is nothing new. And this is still the position and one that has been very clearly articulated within the various departments.

    "So we very much stand by that. Consideration should be given if growth weakens, and looking at the numbers, without having dwelled and looked under the skin of the British economy, as we will do in a few weeks' time under the article IV, the growth numbers are certainly not particularly good."

    RT@guardian: George Osborne told by IMF chief: rethink your austerity plan http://t.co/f1eoqXkMaD

    tim, it is quite clear that there is a battle going on between advocates of austerity economics and advocates of loosening fiscal policies to stimulate growth. Nowhere is this bigger at the moment than in the US.

    Of course the Guardian will promote a stimulus programme and enshroud Lagarde's remarks with the constructs of wild fantasy.

    Now point me to a single direct quote from Lagarde that can properly be interpreted as either a criticism or a change in policy from the most recent IMF published review of the UK economy.

    Lagarde said nothing new, changed no policy and reiterated her conditional support for the fiscal consolidation of the UK economy.

    Everything else is journalistic and partisan sound and fury signifiying nothing.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Grandiose said:

    tim said:

    @TelegraphNews: Britain is a 'crisis economy', says incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney http://t.co/WEm5egqndC by @PhilAldrick

    "Ms Lagarde’s comments dealt a damaging blow to the Chancellor, whose policies she has previously championed. Her support has been critical to shoring up George Osborne’s credibility in the face of Labour’s attacks.
    Asked specifically about his opinion on the UK reovery, Mr Carney said he would reserve his opinion until he starts at the Bank in July. However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.
    In comments that will further disappoint Mr Osborne, Mr Carney stressed that governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity."

    Central bankers play mind games - it's very important. "

    Governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity" is code for "don't expect the Bank of England to change its target to growth - growth is the target of fiscal policy".

    "Tremendous opportunity that is there" = "current long-term projections for growth remain in place".

    "Crisis economy" = expect inflation to be depressed for the short-to-mid-term.

    He's doing his job already. I can't see the article to see what Lagarde has said, but I expect that's not so rosy for the Chancellor.

    At least someone understands!

    And the don't expect comment also means I'll fiddle around with special monetary policies but don't hold me responsible if it all goes wrong!

  • Test. First comment using Vanilla from an occasional lurker and even more occasional poster.

    Hello everyone, and thank you again to the many insightful posters that have motivated me again to work out the widget / account registration / format issues in order to follow your comments again.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Grandiose.
    Building houses will reduce state spending in the medium term and increase tax revenues in the short term.

    What complete and utter innumerate tosh.

    Provide a worked return on investment analysis to support this ludicrous theory, tim.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Sorry to be sombre, but is it really possible that the death toll in the dreadful explosion in Texas will turn out to be as low as is being suggested? The destruction looks horrific, and over a wide area including many buildings.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The jihadist inspired attack idea is still the biggest line of inquiry so far.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Griff Rhys Jones on QT looking like the Paul Whitehouse character in The Fast Show "middle class" I'll get my coat sketch
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    @Richard,

    If there was a decent evacuation due to the initial fire, then by the time of the explosion there may not have been many people in the vicinity,

    eg "More than 130 people had already been evacuated from the nursing home by the time of the explosion because the fire was recognised as a risk."
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @JonathanD - Let's hope so.
  • Texas fertilizer-plant explosion is likely NOT terrorism, but rather just another example of gross lack of sensible land-use regulation, all part of the Bush-Perry service to corporate paymasters.

    No doubt neither W nor Ranger Rick sees anything wrong with siting a potential massive bomb in proximity to schools, apartments, nursing homes.
  • Y0kel said:

    The jihadist inspired attack idea is still the biggest line of inquiry so far.

    Just so long as it's not the ONLY line of inquiry.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,661
    It would be nice for our kids to retain some semblance of a childhood. They need time to do stuff other than schoolwork. If you look at the countries which are most commonly identified as being the most innovative, they almost all tend to have shorter school days and longer holidays than we do. D minus for Mr Gove on this.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Angmering result Con 878 Lab 268 LD 228
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Oh well at least Ben will like the Indy front page - tims letting about how much GO is spending has hit he rocks - red doubling down on spending more - Hollande style :)
  • @JonathanD - Let's hope so.

    It looks like the City of West volunteer fire dept will have suffered a heavy loss.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    In short you want to stoke up all house prices and rents primarily to recapitalize the banks and use govt printed money to do it.
    And the social housing sector will be forced to inflate at the same rate ramping up housing benefit even further.


    Bonkers

    I want supply and demand in a free market to determine prices.

    The level of social housing rents and house prices are only very coincidentally linked to bank recapitalisation.

    QE will be used to buy mortgage assets from the banks thereby reducing their capital requirements, increasing share value and bringing forward the time at which the government can sell its holdings in the banks.

    Selling bank shares is the single most effective means of reducing UK public sector debt available to Osborne.

    The mortgages bought out of the banks can be securitised and sold by the government thereby liquidating the buy out costs. Or they can be held on the government books and run down over their term at profit like the NR & BB mortgage books.

    Allowing social housing sector rents and properties to price to market is simply a means of withdrawing government subsidy which distorts the market.

    Matching benefit to market rent just eliminates unnecessary distinctions between social and private sector housing to the benefit of all.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Dan Hodges cutting Miliband to size so brutally that were Ed to sit on a kerbstone his feet wouldn't reach the gutter.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Oh well at least Ben will like the Indy front page - tims letting about how much GO is spending has hit he rocks - red doubling down on spending more - Hollande style :)

    From now on known as Citoyen Edouard Milibande.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950

    Angmering result Con 878 Lab 268 LD 228

    LibDems - winning here!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited April 2013
    Grandiose said:

    Grandiose said:

    I don't agree with the decriminalisation of drugs because I don't believe that criminalisation is failing.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis

    Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:

    16+ age
    any drug down 10%
    any stimulant down 15%
    any Class A drug down 12%

    specifically 16-25
    any drug down 14%
    any stimulant down 30%
    any Class A drug down 19%

    "Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".

    The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."

    Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.


    That might be true, but we find drug factories, especially cannabis farms on an increasingly regular basis.

    "At 6.9%, cannabis use in the past year now remains at the lowest level since the CSEW measurement began."

    Whatever the flaws of the CSEW style of measurement (and at a third of the public reporting use at least once, the under-reporting can't be too great) they should be the same year-to-year.

    We could have become better at finding them; or we could be import-substituting; or growing could have been shifted from smaller-scale to larger-scale ventures.
    open borders = cheaper labour costs

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Angmering result Con 878 Lab 268 LD 228

    South Coast Tory resurgence!

    If only it had occurred before Eastleigh.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Interesting in SeanT's article that 70% of fiction readers are women. I like reading fiction which automatically puts me in the weird category. (Just started reading The White Hotel by DM Thomas in case anyone's interested).
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    It would be nice for our kids to retain some semblance of a childhood. They need time to do stuff other than schoolwork. If you look at the countries which are most commonly identified as being the most innovative, they almost all tend to have shorter school days and longer holidays than we do. D minus for Mr Gove on this.

    They should be made to work or flogged and sent early to bed without supper.

    Everyone knows that, SO.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Of course the short answer for why the Orange Prize still exists is because it helps to pay for a number of people's five star hotel stays and/or Michelin starred restaurant meals. And they'd like that to continue, if possible.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,541
    Angmering: think we should let the Tories enjoy that one.

    O/T: Got to give a talk to the FDA in College Park, Maryland next month - does anyone know a nice (not ridiculously expensive) hotel nearby?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    My love of golf is no secret to those on here.

    I have posted already about how I went with my dad to the Open at Lytham in 1963 and saw Bob Charles win.

    In 2009 Stuart Cink beat Tom Watson in a playoff to win the Open.

    A few months afterwards he appeared at a charity golf tournament I help to organize at TPC Sugarloaf and let me hold the Claret Jug, finding Charles, Nicklaus and Watson's name on it.

    Jim Huber wrote a wonderful book about the 2009 Open, called 'Four Days in July - Tom Watson, the 2009 Open Championship, and a tournament for the ages.", featuring a photo silhouette of Watson on the cover.

    Today I was at Sugarloaf again, as a hole captain during a pro-am tournament, prior to the Greater Gwinnett Championship, a new stop on the Champions Tour.

    Tom Watson was participating in the pro-am, so while he was signing photos of the 'ams' on 10 tee, I asked him if he would sign my copy of the Huber book.

    He took it, looked at the dustcover for a moment, looked up at me and smiled, said "Of course I will. I'd be delighted."

    He signed it with my name, his, and a nice message. We exchanged a couple of comments, I wished him luck for the Ryder Cup, he put out his hand and we shook, and he walked out to the tee, a 628 yard par 5, hit his shot, and was gone.

    I have had the opportunity to shake his hand before, and he is unfailingly a gentleman.

    Who doesn't like Tom Watson?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm going to NYC for the first time next month. If anyone has any tips I'd love to hear them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234
    edited April 2013
    Just received an email. My local 'petition' in favour of a Sheffield Ikea has hit 327 signs !https://sheffield.moderngov.co.uk/mgepetitionlistdisplay.aspx?bcr=1
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    Grandiose said:

    I don't agree with the decriminalisation of drugs because I don't believe that criminalisation is failing.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis

    Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:

    16+ age
    any drug down 10%
    any stimulant down 15%
    any Class A drug down 12%

    specifically 16-25
    any drug down 14%
    any stimulant down 30%
    any Class A drug down 19%

    "Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".

    The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."

    Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.


    I was against legal shooting galleries but in Sydney i last 15 years they cut crime and meant needles were (mainly) in the same place and under medical control.
    In Utrecht in Holland it cut the costs per addict including crime by about 75% per addict. From meory 17k AUD to 4k AUD (or was it Euros) but please check for exact figures.
    I therefore agree with you in principle, it seems a cop out, but it is a solution which minimises damage to the individuals and socity in general. On balance give it a go.


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Angmering: think we should let the Tories enjoy that one.

    O/T: Got to give a talk to the FDA in College Park, Maryland next month - does anyone know a nice (not ridiculously expensive) hotel nearby?

    1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC is OK, Nick.

    Fresh coffee for breakfast and they change the sheets at least once a week.
  • Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    edited April 2013
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting in SeanT's article that 70% of fiction readers are women. I like reading fiction which automatically puts me in the weird category. (Just started reading The White Hotel by DM Thomas in case anyone's interested).

    I am also a constant male reader of fiction, having just finished 'Last Orders' by Graham Swift [Winner, 1996 Booker Prize].
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Avery

    I dont think it's been quite the same since it was burnt down.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @AndyJS

    How long will you be there for?
  • Nick, suggest you check with U of MD to see IF they have guest accomodation available for visiting scholars - definitely mention FDA plus your status as XMP - the later should be very appealing to typical US academic snobs!

    IF you want to get really wild and crazy, check out Motel 6 - use $$$ saved to rent a car so you can play hookey in the mountains or at the beach.

    BTW, avoid "breakfast included" unless it's a real cooked breakfast, what you generally get under that rubric tends to be sub-minimal or semi-toxic. However, if all you want is some cornflakes, coffee & a (stale) muffin, go for it!
  • Re: new Boston Massacre, the key thing about what FBI revealed (or rather let people see) today, is that it appears vritually certain that bombings were conspiracy rather than lone nut.

    Bad because it extends range & reach of terrorists. Good because conpiracies are generally easier to crack than lone wolves.
  • AveryLP said:

    Angmering: think we should let the Tories enjoy that one.

    O/T: Got to give a talk to the FDA in College Park, Maryland next month - does anyone know a nice (not ridiculously expensive) hotel nearby?

    1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC is OK, Nick.

    Fresh coffee for breakfast and they change the sheets at least once a week.
    Sounds as though you are clueless re: how awful the commute is from WH to DC burbs! Even going against the traffic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,957

    AveryLP said:

    Angmering: think we should let the Tories enjoy that one.

    O/T: Got to give a talk to the FDA in College Park, Maryland next month - does anyone know a nice (not ridiculously expensive) hotel nearby?

    1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC is OK, Nick.

    Fresh coffee for breakfast and they change the sheets at least once a week.
    Sounds as though you are clueless re: how awful the commute is from WH to DC burbs! Even going against the traffic.
    That's solved with the complementary helicopter facilities.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    SeanT said:



    Everyone in the world is now sitting with their noses an inch from their laptops and iPads saying: ooh, looks a bit Muslim/white survivalist nutter/er, Mormon/member of my personal hate group

    i'd be quite happy to arrest all baseball cap wearers.

    maybe someone could arrest Tony Pulis...
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342

    SeanT said:



    Everyone in the world is now sitting with their noses an inch from their laptops and iPads saying: ooh, looks a bit Muslim/white survivalist nutter/er, Mormon/member of my personal hate group

    i'd be quite happy to arrest all baseball cap wearers.

    maybe someone could arrest Tony Pulis...
    Is it just me and suspect 1 looks like Osama without a beard, and suspect 2 looks North Korean? Surely not......

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,957
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22204998

    @Sunil_Prasannan - as our resident train aficionado, is this good or bad?!
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    @redcliffe not thin enough to be n korean!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I think the World Government should pass a law to make it compulsory for every national parliament to do this if and when they legalise equal marriage for gay couples
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9pOJ8Bc_-g
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888
    edited April 2013
    A policeman has been shot (and killed - I think the newsreader said so) on the MIT campus outside Boston.

    Connected?

    (Edit: yes, sadly the officer died)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888
    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22204998

    @Sunil_Prasannan - as our resident train aficionado, is this good or bad?!

    Not speaking as a train expert, Euston needs a rebuild. I haven't used it in the last few years, but it had some of the worst passenger facilities of any of the London termini. And that was saying something. Now the front-end of Kings Cross and St Pancras have been overhauled, I bet it is even worse.

    It will be a missed opportunity to totally rebuild the station. But the needs of passengers are not driving this - it is the dreaded phrase 'commercial opportunities'.

    On other news, the Norwegians are considering building the world's first ship tunnel. It ain't going to be as successful as a Suez or Panama, that's for sure...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22157079
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    One tip is to leave a tip at restaurants and for bar service unless you wanted to be bawled out.
    AndyJS said:

    I'm going to NYC for the first time next month. If anyone has any tips I'd love to hear them.

This discussion has been closed.