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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of elections of 2013 – tonight’s local by-election
Angmering on Arun (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Ind 1 (Conservative majority of 40)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 1520, 1404, 1324 (Average: 39%) Lib Dem 550 (16%) Lab 538 (15%) Ind 524 (15%) UKIP 517 (15%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jamie Bennett (Lib Dem), Andy Cooper (Con), Carly Goodwin (Lab)
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And Hague's work at the FCO in auditing the EU competences will be diligently if not faithfully completed.
And I am equally sure that Angela likes the idea of hiding behind Dave's petticoat.
But whether the naïveté leads to an entente cordiale universale, I'll pass on that for the moment.
Start with an aggressive bid, wait to see how the cards fall and then limit your losses if necessary. Not a bad strategy.
Councillors should be appointed by Eddy Fitzalan-Howard not elected.
Calm down, dear! Calm down!
(It's still mid-term!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
Aggressive bid?
I bet the rest of the EU were quaking in their boots!
http://www.espn.co.uk/ferrari/motorsport/story/105952.html
"Lewis [Hamilton in fourth place] is one of the best drivers in the world and last year he put McLaren in a very competitive position and this year he is putting Mercedes in a very competitive position. Once more he is proving his talent. The Red Bull cars are probably the strongest and Kimi is doing a fantastic start to the season and is driving maybe better than anyone, so he deserves to be there."
Praises Hamilton and Raikkonen as drivers, but the car that Vettel drives.
No wonder Blair has launched a co-ordinated attack on Ed Miliband.
Ed's committing suicide!
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76604/the_independent_thursday_18th_april_2013.html
He has set the entire financial marketplace against him and his party.
When Chinese investment houses pull out of buying Chinese municipal bonds because their regions and cities are over-leveraging in an economy growing at 8% per annum there is no chance of bond investors supporting a relaxation of fiscal consolidation in a UK economy growing at a good deal less than 2% per annum.
Madness, tim.
Given the huge flap over reported arrests that apparently never happened AND new evidence revealed by law enforcment, this one ought to be a hum-dinger.
Not a bridge player I assume.
My ISP went AWOL today so I missed the early threads.
Did you welcome the Retail Sales figures today?
Though personally am more interested in remarks by Cardinal O'Malley. Mainly because he appears to be emerging (or rather continuing to emerge) as key player in reform of Vatican, IF that's actaully in the cards.
On Tuesday evening we had what was amongst one of three meals of our life if not the best here. http://www.lijsterbes.be/over-lijsterbes/de-verlokkingen-van-de-natuur/
An extraordinary and memorable evening made possible by getting the top five right in the correct order in the Eastleigh by-election.
Governments should not be looking to central banks to return countries to prosperity" is code for "don't expect the Bank of England to change its target to growth - growth is the target of fiscal policy".
"Tremendous opportunity that is there" = "current long-term projections for growth remain in place".
"Crisis economy" = expect inflation to be depressed for the short-to-mid-term.
He's doing his job already. I can't see the article to see what Lagarde has said, but I expect that's not so rosy for the Chancellor.
I recommend you watch the televised response of Christine Lagarde to Ed Conway's question.
It was a straight repetition of the IMF's position in its last report on the UK economy. She even repeated first up and twice that the IMF supported the government's fiscal consolidation plans.
As to the suggestion that Carney's appointment and comments will disappoint George, this is ridiculous. It was George who appointed Carney precisely because he wanted a Governor who will use novel monetary policies to drive the economy.
And we all know what the novel BoE monetary interventions will be don't we.
We'll have to start a riot or something. Maybe even a discussion group.
Belgian cooking at its best matches anything the French can do, provided you are prepared to ignore its impact on your waistline.
The Finns are very fond of the Rowanberry, which I have always thought looks prettier than it tastes. But the menu looks superb, And not overly rich either.
You have much to thank Chris Huhne and Vicky Pryce for!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/sep/28/drug-use-age-popular-cannabis
Both sets of tables show a considerable decline in drug use since 2007:
16+ age
any drug down 10%
any stimulant down 15%
any Class A drug down 12%
specifically 16-25
any drug down 14%
any stimulant down 30%
any Class A drug down 19%
"Illicit drug use in England and Wales is firmly on a downward curve, with the latest annual figures confirming the long-term trend that they might simply be "going out of fashion".
The latest figures published on Thursday even record a decline in recently banned so-called "legal highs" such as mephedrone and Spice (synthetic cannabis)."
Of course the one thing you can't do to legal highs is legalise them.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/324996604362883072/photo/1
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2310978/UKIP-fight-shire-councils-Lib-Dems-new-poll-puts-Farages-anti-EU-party-DOUBLE-Cleggs-support.html
2. Market prices for social housing rents means that property values should also rise to be broadly equivalent to private sector multiple housing schemes.
3. Both measures will introduce liquidity into the social housing rental markets as well as to the property ownership, management and maintenance markets.
4. Councils will find it easier to divest social housing property at fair markets, private sector property companies will be attracted into ownership and management; and construction companies will have an incentive to build for demand.
5. All of the above will be less costly to the government and taxpayer than increasing central government borrowing to embark upon a massive national council house building programme.
6. On the mortgage equity and guarantee schemes, these do not constitute sub prime lending by any accepted definition of the term in the mortgage lending business. The loans will be provided only to borrowers complying with normal credit risk criteria.
7. The purpose of the schemes is to insure house buyers and builders against catastrophic and systemic collapse in house prices. The level of guarantees and equity sharing provided is sufficient to kick start an expansion of house building and purchase in the private sector. It's purpose is to stablilise house prices in a market which has seen consistent real term falls for over five years.
8. The mortgage and house building stimulus is likely to be a necessary part of a wider scheme to recapitalise and restructure the UK banks, enabling early share sales at higher value and supporting higher levels of credit provision to the household market.
9. All of the above is entirely consistent with the government's policy of rebalancing the economy by substituting private sector investment for central government investment where the nature of the project and market supports such a transition,
Your comments on "sub prime lending splurge" and increased spend on housing benefit constitute soundbite smearing rather than worked argument.
Whatever the flaws of the CSEW style of measurement (and at a third of the public reporting use at least once, the under-reporting can't be too great) they should be the same year-to-year.
We could have become better at finding them; or we could be import-substituting; or growing could have been shifted from smaller-scale to larger-scale ventures.
The more the merrier.
But it is not a job for the government to carry out directly.
Houses can be built by private sector construction companies, financed by private sector banks, and sold at profit to households.
It is for the government to get the macro-economic measures right to stimulate increased housebuilding and household purchaser/borrower demand. This is what George is attempting to do.
And failing.
Miserably.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22211190
Of course the Guardian will promote a stimulus programme and enshroud Lagarde's remarks with the constructs of wild fantasy.
Now point me to a single direct quote from Lagarde that can properly be interpreted as either a criticism or a change in policy from the most recent IMF published review of the UK economy.
Lagarde said nothing new, changed no policy and reiterated her conditional support for the fiscal consolidation of the UK economy.
Everything else is journalistic and partisan sound and fury signifiying nothing.
And the don't expect comment also means I'll fiddle around with special monetary policies but don't hold me responsible if it all goes wrong!
Hello everyone, and thank you again to the many insightful posters that have motivated me again to work out the widget / account registration / format issues in order to follow your comments again.
Provide a worked return on investment analysis to support this ludicrous theory, tim.
If there was a decent evacuation due to the initial fire, then by the time of the explosion there may not have been many people in the vicinity,
eg "More than 130 people had already been evacuated from the nursing home by the time of the explosion because the fire was recognised as a risk."
No doubt neither W nor Ranger Rick sees anything wrong with siting a potential massive bomb in proximity to schools, apartments, nursing homes.
The level of social housing rents and house prices are only very coincidentally linked to bank recapitalisation.
QE will be used to buy mortgage assets from the banks thereby reducing their capital requirements, increasing share value and bringing forward the time at which the government can sell its holdings in the banks.
Selling bank shares is the single most effective means of reducing UK public sector debt available to Osborne.
The mortgages bought out of the banks can be securitised and sold by the government thereby liquidating the buy out costs. Or they can be held on the government books and run down over their term at profit like the NR & BB mortgage books.
Allowing social housing sector rents and properties to price to market is simply a means of withdrawing government subsidy which distorts the market.
Matching benefit to market rent just eliminates unnecessary distinctions between social and private sector housing to the benefit of all.
If only it had occurred before Eastleigh.
Everyone knows that, SO.
O/T: Got to give a talk to the FDA in College Park, Maryland next month - does anyone know a nice (not ridiculously expensive) hotel nearby?
I have posted already about how I went with my dad to the Open at Lytham in 1963 and saw Bob Charles win.
In 2009 Stuart Cink beat Tom Watson in a playoff to win the Open.
A few months afterwards he appeared at a charity golf tournament I help to organize at TPC Sugarloaf and let me hold the Claret Jug, finding Charles, Nicklaus and Watson's name on it.
Jim Huber wrote a wonderful book about the 2009 Open, called 'Four Days in July - Tom Watson, the 2009 Open Championship, and a tournament for the ages.", featuring a photo silhouette of Watson on the cover.
Today I was at Sugarloaf again, as a hole captain during a pro-am tournament, prior to the Greater Gwinnett Championship, a new stop on the Champions Tour.
Tom Watson was participating in the pro-am, so while he was signing photos of the 'ams' on 10 tee, I asked him if he would sign my copy of the Huber book.
He took it, looked at the dustcover for a moment, looked up at me and smiled, said "Of course I will. I'd be delighted."
He signed it with my name, his, and a nice message. We exchanged a couple of comments, I wished him luck for the Ryder Cup, he put out his hand and we shook, and he walked out to the tee, a 628 yard par 5, hit his shot, and was gone.
I have had the opportunity to shake his hand before, and he is unfailingly a gentleman.
Who doesn't like Tom Watson?
In Utrecht in Holland it cut the costs per addict including crime by about 75% per addict. From meory 17k AUD to 4k AUD (or was it Euros) but please check for exact figures.
I therefore agree with you in principle, it seems a cop out, but it is a solution which minimises damage to the individuals and socity in general. On balance give it a go.
Fresh coffee for breakfast and they change the sheets at least once a week.
I dont think it's been quite the same since it was burnt down.
How long will you be there for?
IF you want to get really wild and crazy, check out Motel 6 - use $$$ saved to rent a car so you can play hookey in the mountains or at the beach.
BTW, avoid "breakfast included" unless it's a real cooked breakfast, what you generally get under that rubric tends to be sub-minimal or semi-toxic. However, if all you want is some cornflakes, coffee & a (stale) muffin, go for it!
Bad because it extends range & reach of terrorists. Good because conpiracies are generally easier to crack than lone wolves.
maybe someone could arrest Tony Pulis...
@Sunil_Prasannan - as our resident train aficionado, is this good or bad?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9pOJ8Bc_-g
Connected?
(Edit: yes, sadly the officer died)
It will be a missed opportunity to totally rebuild the station. But the needs of passengers are not driving this - it is the dreaded phrase 'commercial opportunities'.
On other news, the Norwegians are considering building the world's first ship tunnel. It ain't going to be as successful as a Suez or Panama, that's for sure...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22157079