Wrong because you have ignored the different number of dont knows/dont votes/refusals in each group in those percentages, and also the different weighted sample sizes reflecting the different votes that each party got in 2017.
YouGov's actual figures in that poll are that 10% of 550 2017 Tories intend to vote BXP, as do 6% of 515 2017 Labour voters. So that's a ratio of 55:31, nowhere near as close as your 3:2.
However, that's only one poll and the cross breaks are quite volatile and so differ in others. In the YouGov mega poll of late October, with a much larger and therefore much more reliable sample size, the figures were as follows: 12% of 3825 of Tories intend to vote BXP, compared to 5% of 3581 Labour. Thats 459 ex Tories voting Brexit Party, compared to 179 ex Labour. A ratio of over 5:2.
Finally, these are voters intending to vote for a party who entire policy stance is centred around stopping Brexit and has pretty well no other policies. So achieving Brexit is pretty central to how they intend to cast their vote. If the BXP were not to stand candidates, it's pretty clear that a BXP inclined voter would see their next best option for stopping Brexit as being to vote Conservative, regardless of who they voted for in 2017.
55:31 is actually fairly close to 60:40 when you normalise the figures. If you think trying to include the don't knows is helpful (I don't) then by all means do so. Yes, my figures were excluding those, simply because I didn't think it was fair to include the don't knows as switchers and equally not fair to count them as not-switchers. If you have a model for how you think they'll break, apply it, but I don't so I'm effectively making the assumption that they will break in the same proportions as the decideds.
Your introduction of the other figures to show that TBP numbers could be even higher toward the Conservative end of the balance supports my point: I was disagreeing with the assertion that TBP voters will be predominantly ex-Labour voters. Of course they are more Conservative than Labour.
As for what happens in those seats where voters are lucky enough to be free from the Brexit Party scourge, I'll leave that for others to decide what the outcome will be. I wasn't trying to make any predictions, merely to say what the current state of play looks like.
I'm making the observation that as those people are telling the pollsters that they either wont vote or dont know how they are going to vote (if at all), there is absolutely no case for assuming that they will even vote let alone vote in a particular way.
Aren't you kind of undermining your own point here by tarring everyone on "the Left", as you choose to define it, as anti-Semites and Tory hating bigots?
It's hardly painting yourself, as presumably one of "the Right", as a freewheeling, see the good in everyone, and take all as they come sort of fellow.
My own view is that most people in the offline world are fairly pleasant whether they happen to agree with me on Brexit, tax levels, or pretty much anything else. Some aren't, but then a small number of people who agree with me on all major political matters are also absolute sh1ts!
Hating Tories isn't any kind of bigotry. Tories are scum. Conservatives* I have time for, but never Tories. Hating a Tory is like hating people who torture and kill foxes. It's hating someone for their moral philosophy and the way they act on it. It's hating someone because they make awful, destructive, mean-minded choices. There is nothing wrong with hating bad people. And Tories are the absolute fucking worst.
*People can be both Tories and Conservatives, but many Conservatives are not Tories.
Ridiculous. People should be free to choose not to wear one.
Looks like a fucking shit boozer, with an absolute helmet as a landlord. Bristol has plenty of very decent pubs, why go to this shithole?
Wearing a poppy = politically correct virtue signalling.
It is.
No, it isn't. It is a collective remembrance to those who have sacrificed for the rest of us, and a sign of support for veterans.
It's definitely politically correct, and it's also *signalling* - the poppy is worn where it is to be visible to other people, that's the whole point.
Whether a signal is *virtue* signalling depends on the goal of the person wearing it - ie whether their goal is to send the signal, or to make people think better of you with the fact that you're sending the signal. I think it's obvious that in this case there are both motivations, and some people have one, other people have the other, and others have both?
I think the same is true of pretty much all virtue signalling: If people could be sure it was virtue signalling, it wouldn't work as either a signal or a virtue signal.
However if somebody says that everybody who wears one colour is in one class and everyone who wears the other colour is in the other class, what they're unintentionally signalling is that they're full of shit.
Aren't you kind of undermining your own point here by tarring everyone on "the Left", as you choose to define it, as anti-Semites and Tory hating bigots?
It's hardly painting yourself, as presumably one of "the Right", as a freewheeling, see the good in everyone, and take all as they come sort of fellow.
My own view is that most people in the offline world are fairly pleasant whether they happen to agree with me on Brexit, tax levels, or pretty much anything else. Some aren't, but then a small number of people who agree with me on all major political matters are also absolute sh1ts!
Hating Tories isn't any kind of bigotry. Tories are scum. Conservatives* I have time for, but never Tories. Hating a Tory is like hating people who torture and kill foxes. It's hating someone for their moral philosophy and the way they act on it. It's hating someone because they make awful, destructive, mean-minded choices. There is nothing wrong with hating bad people. And Tories are the absolute fucking worst.
*People can be both Tories and Conservatives, but many Conservatives are not Tories.
You are absolutely pathetic.
Tories worse than child killers?
What is it about the left and hate?
I guess Noo is about 13 years old. He/She will grow out of it.
The fact that Johnson has resiled on his promised inquiry is a disgrace and was criticised by me (and others) on here earlier today.
Charles point earlier was about the Muslim community not fearing the outcome of the upcoming election. Also if you note what I said about one community concerns getting a whole article can pretty much only be a reference to very recent articles as we have one far more than 'a whole article' on the subject.
Also quite frankly Aleesha tweets were far from limited to the Conservative party, it is the whole* press that is rotten not just the Conservative party.
*Maybe a little overstatement..
This woman just a little further down her Twitter feed laughed about pushing "Blairites" into the sea.
Pushing the Jews into the sea has been a long demand from anti-Semitic Palestinian state. They wish to restore "Arab" lands via the genocide of Jewish Israelis.
Not only that but the sea is a source of wealth and there were some Blairite Jews so she is in fact simultaneously laughing at the idea of a genocide of Jewish people and accusing Jewish people of being money grabbing.
You can probably interpret it into a blood libel as well and it certainly raises questions about whether she believes the holocaust happened at all.
Also not sure about this 'anti semitic Palestinian state' pushing the Jews into the sea, surely the reality is the other way around?
I mean I know we are supposed to concentrate on words and ignore actions but it is the Israeli government who are closer to practising genocide on the Muslims.
Also what happened to the we should be concerned about minority communities BS you usually spout, or does that nonsense only count when you think it works to the partisan benefit of your beloved Conservatives?
We should be concerned about all minority communities. I am not a Conservative, I do not love them and I have never voted for them. I find the current Israeli government reprehensible in its policy towards the occupied territories.
That does not mean I will indulge someone that gets upset because a Muslim politiician gets criticized for celebrating the death of a former PM. Nor does it mean I will overlook the "push into the sea" language that comes straight from the Hamas Founding Charter.
Pushing the Jews into the sea has been a long demand from anti-Semitic Palestinian state. They wish to restore "Arab" lands via the genocide of Jewish Israelis.
Not only that but the sea is a source of wealth and there were some Blairite Jews so she is in fact simultaneously laughing at the idea of a genocide of Jewish people and accusing Jewish people of being money grabbing.
You can probably interpret it into a blood libel as well and it certainly raises questions about whether she believes the holocaust happened at all.
Also not sure about this 'anti semitic Palestinian state' pushing the Jews into the sea, surely the reality is the other way around?
I mean I know we are supposed to concentrate on words and ignore actions but it is the Israeli government who are closer to practising genocide on the Muslims.
Also what happened to the we should be concerned about minority communities BS you usually spout, or does that nonsense only count when you think it works to the partisan benefit of your beloved Conservatives?
We should be concerned about all minority communities. I am not a Conservative, I do not love them and I have never voted for them. I find the current Israeli government reprehensible in its policy towards the occupied territories.
That does not mean I will indulge someone that gets upset because a Muslim politiician gets criticized for celebrating the death of a former PM. Nor does it mean I will overlook the "push into the sea" language that comes straight from the Hamas Founding Charter.
Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.
Also in reference to your we should be concerned about all minority communities, you clearly ignore discrimination against other minority communities, you somehow turn a woman who is complaining about discrimination laughing at a tweet that included among other things Blairites getting into the sea as you being the victim, or more likely you know full well what you are doing and are trying to void talk about Conservative discrimination by somehow accusing the Muslim woman of anti semitism.
Your a fucking joke mate, I can see why you are so eager to vote for bank robbers, post boxes and piccaninnies Johnson.
Also it is quite telling the people who want to ignore discrimination like go home and obvious racist abuse that normal people suffer day in day out because somebody said they would celebrate the deaths of people responsible for the deaths of others.... I mean seriously?!
Are you that much of an old racist right wing asshole that all the racist abuse barely registers but someone saying they would celebrate the death of 2 old warmongers is beyond the pale?!
I won't be celebrating any individual deaths (something of a personal policy) but it will be nice when this type of racist baby boomer thinking dies off.
Edit: This loops back to the media like Aleesha was talking about in her tweets.
Also quite frankly Aleesha tweets were far from limited to the Conservative party, it is the whole* press that is rotten not just the Conservative party.
*Maybe a little overstatement..
This woman just a little further down her Twitter feed laughed about pushing "Blairites" into the sea.
Pushing the Jews into the sea has been a long demand from anti-Semitic Palestinian state. They wish to restore "Arab" lands via the genocide of Jewish Israelis.
That's an amazing number of errors in two short sentences. * Until the late 1980s the PLO's aim was a single secular state of Palestine which paid no attention to whether citizens were Muslim, Christian, or Jewish. * Then after negotiations with Israel the position changed to one of aiming for two states, one Jewish (i.e. Israel) and one Arabic (to be called Palestine). * Neither position involved calling for the expulsion of any Jews from anywhere, nor for killing even a single person, let alone genocide. * Many Israeli Jews actually are Arabs, or at least they are from Arab backgrounds and would have been called "Arab Jews" until the term was deleted from some lexicons. This includes practically all Israeli Jews with parents or grandparents from Morocco, Iraq, and Yemen, three countries from which a large number of Jews immigrated in the first few years after the creation of Israel. * The more than 400 million Arabs in the world are Semites. * Expulsions? Well according to the United Nations there are literally millions of Arabs who have either been expelled from their homes in Palestine by the Jewish state or whose parents or grandparents were. (United Nations link). When was the last time Arabs in Palestine expelled any Jews? * Death tolls? Check the figures published by the United Nations. There have been far more Arab casualties than Jewish casualties in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. * The sea? Do you think the Arabs forced to live in Gaza are even allowed access to it?
We should be concerned about all minority communities. I am not a Conservative, I do not love them and I have never voted for them. I find the current Israeli government reprehensible in its policy towards the occupied territories.
That does not mean I will indulge someone that gets upset because a Muslim politiician gets criticized for celebrating the death of a former PM. Nor does it mean I will overlook the "push into the sea" language that comes straight from the Hamas Founding Charter.
Actions not words, the Israeli government is a far bigger Muslim killer than vice versa.
Also in reference to your we should be concerned about all minority communities, you clearly ignore discrimination against other minority communities, you somehow turn a woman who is complaining about discrimination laughing at a tweet that included among other things Blairites getting into the sea as you being the victim, or more likely you know full well what you are doing and are trying to void talk about Conservative discrimination by somehow accusing the Muslim woman of anti semitism.
Your a fucking joke mate, I can see why you are so eager to vote for bank robbers, post boxes and piccaninnies Johnson.
Boris Johnson's use of the word "piccaninnies" is significant not only because it is a vile racist term of abuse but because it is specifically a word used by Enoch Powell in his 1968 "blood" speech to describe black children. What is Brexit, essentially, for many of those who voted for it (not all of them, obviously!), other than a way of saying "Enoch was right"?
If you want a European for a neighbour vote Labour
Indeed, that's the Tory campaign message and I don't agree with the smiley. "Australian-style points system" is code. Japan and both Korean governments have strict immigration policies too, but no - it's always Australia that gets mentioned.
If you want a European for a neighbour vote Labour
Indeed, that's the Tory campaign message and I don't agree with the smiley. "Australian-style points system" is code. Japan and both Korean governments have strict immigration policies too, but no - it's always Australia that gets mentioned.
Because its the single biggest recipient of the British diaspora? More Brits there than in the whole of the EU.....
Comments
Tories worse than child killers?
What is it about the left and hate?
Whether a signal is *virtue* signalling depends on the goal of the person wearing it - ie whether their goal is to send the signal, or to make people think better of you with the fact that you're sending the signal. I think it's obvious that in this case there are both motivations, and some people have one, other people have the other, and others have both?
I think the same is true of pretty much all virtue signalling: If people could be sure it was virtue signalling, it wouldn't work as either a signal or a virtue signal.
However if somebody says that everybody who wears one colour is in one class and everyone who wears the other colour is in the other class, what they're unintentionally signalling is that they're full of shit.
That does not mean I will indulge someone that gets upset because a Muslim politiician gets criticized for celebrating the death of a former PM. Nor does it mean I will overlook the "push into the sea" language that comes straight from the Hamas Founding Charter.
Also in reference to your we should be concerned about all minority communities, you clearly ignore discrimination against other minority communities, you somehow turn a woman who is complaining about discrimination laughing at a tweet that included among other things Blairites getting into the sea as you being the victim, or more likely you know full well what you are doing and are trying to void talk about Conservative discrimination by somehow accusing the Muslim woman of anti semitism.
Your a fucking joke mate, I can see why you are so eager to vote for bank robbers, post boxes and piccaninnies Johnson.
Are you that much of an old racist right wing asshole that all the racist abuse barely registers but someone saying they would celebrate the death of 2 old warmongers is beyond the pale?!
I won't be celebrating any individual deaths (something of a personal policy) but it will be nice when this type of racist baby boomer thinking dies off.
Edit: This loops back to the media like Aleesha was talking about in her tweets.
* Until the late 1980s the PLO's aim was a single secular state of Palestine which paid no attention to whether citizens were Muslim, Christian, or Jewish.
* Then after negotiations with Israel the position changed to one of aiming for two states, one Jewish (i.e. Israel) and one Arabic (to be called Palestine).
* Neither position involved calling for the expulsion of any Jews from anywhere, nor for killing even a single person, let alone genocide.
* Many Israeli Jews actually are Arabs, or at least they are from Arab backgrounds and would have been called "Arab Jews" until the term was deleted from some lexicons. This includes practically all Israeli Jews with parents or grandparents from Morocco, Iraq, and Yemen, three countries from which a large number of Jews immigrated in the first few years after the creation of Israel.
* The more than 400 million Arabs in the world are Semites.
* Expulsions? Well according to the United Nations there are literally millions of Arabs who have either been expelled from their homes in Palestine by the Jewish state or whose parents or grandparents were. (United Nations link). When was the last time Arabs in Palestine expelled any Jews?
* Death tolls? Check the figures published by the United Nations. There have been far more Arab casualties than Jewish casualties in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
* The sea? Do you think the Arabs forced to live in Gaza are even allowed access to it?