politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013
Result: Liberal Democrat 1,591 (48% +12% on 2012), Labour 901 (27% -13% on 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 450 (13%), Green 210 (6% -5% on 2012), Conservative 189 (6% -7% on 2012)
Small regional sub-samples only appeal to long-lost skirt-wearers and other sheep botherers in foreign parts: To sane people it is just noise. That is all....
''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''
Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.
Something somewhere doesn't add up.
Landlords are buying the houses and filling them one family per room = high house prices + masses of poor people to vote Labour + landlords making a mint they'll quite happily share a little with members of the political class who'll keep the borders open - that part of the political class who don't already have their own inner-city BTL empire, that is.
“How did Flowers and people like him get into their positions? The answer is that a lot of it stems from their positions within the Labour Party,” says David Stanbury, a Co-op member in Devon who is unhappy about the annual use of some £1 million to fund the mutual’s political activities – all pro-Labour – when the Co-op Bank is teetering on the edge. “This money is, in effect, going to support the Labour Party because the Co-operative Party, to which it is given, is indistinguishable from Labour.”
the new management of Co-op Group is concerned to reform a governance system that allowed a small number of activists in the political wing of Co-op Group to control the group's commercial activities.
''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''
Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.
Something somewhere doesn't add up.
Landlords are buying the houses and filling them one family per room = high house prices + masses of poor people to vote Labour + landlords making a mint they'll quite happily share a little with members of the political class who'll keep the borders open - that part of the political class who don't already have their own inner-city BTL empire, that is.
Like, as reported, Pakistani landlords renting to Roma extended families?
The Boy Osborne gets the ball on the half way line, turns on a sixpence running straight towards goal , beats three men and crashes the ball into the back of the net.
His own net
Mark Kleinman @MarkKleinmanSky Exclusive: Then-BoE Governor Lord King warned rival bidder of 'political desire' for Co-Op to buy Lloyds branches. http://bit.ly/1aDdDLv
Very open-minded of Ossie - not seeking to undermine Labour's bank.
In July, after 30 years with HSBC, I switched my money to the Co-op. Whatever the breezy assurances, changing banks kicks off six months of admin aggro: bounced direct debits, people trying to pay into your dead account, re-registering every damn thing from Amazon one-click to online parking with your new card. But no matter: the path of righteousness can be stony.
Recommend 27 I did the same Deborah, moved from HSBC to the "ethical" Co-op - And I'm spitting furious! Run into the ground by useless regulators and a fake Methodist dope head - then worse still, taken over by hedge-funds. They say it's easy changing banks - but not if you have odds and ends of freelance income. Time to move again, though? Nationwide?
Recommend 27 I did the same Deborah, moved from HSBC to the "ethical" Co-op - And I'm spitting furious! Run into the ground by useless regulators and a fake Methodist dope head - then worse still, taken over by hedge-funds. They say it's easy changing banks - but not if you have odds and ends of freelance income. Time to move again, though? Nationwide?
It's fascinating as a comment for what it unintentionally reveals.
The author prefers the bank is run into the ground than taken over by hedge funds. So they would rather end up with a bankrupt business and lots of people unemployed than to let some "evil capitalists" potentially make a profit
Re: the deconstruction of the Camelot myth: I have just finished watching the "The Cold War" series (1998) narrated by Kenneth Branagh. The episode on Cuba left me with the clear view that Kennedy was recklessly negligent in the Bay of Pigs incident, and arguably catastrophically reckless in the brinkmanship of the Cuban missile crisis. If he had survived as President until 1969, I expect he would have been worse in dealing with Vietnam than Johnson was, and may have blundered into other crises in other foreign adventures.
But anyway, why is today's Google doodle on Doctor Who instead of JFK?
Re: the deconstruction of the Camelot myth: I have just finished watching the "The Cold War" series (1998) narrated by Kenneth Branagh. The episode on Cuba left me with the clear view that Kennedy was recklessly negligent in the Bay of Pigs incident, and arguably catastrophically reckless in the brinkmanship of the Cuban missile crisis. If he had survived as President until 1969, I expect he would have been worse in dealing with Vietnam than Johnson was, and may have blundered into other crises in other foreign adventures.
But anyway, why is today's Google doodle on Doctor Who instead of JFK?
He'd have had to work had in January '69 given that his successor would have been elected in November '68
@ToryTreasury: Labour's response to inquiry the PRA, FCA and the perm sec at the Treasury all think is justified is to try and undermine it #sameoldlabour
''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''
Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.
Something somewhere doesn't add up.
Landlords are buying the houses and filling them one family per room = high house prices + masses of poor people to vote Labour + landlords making a mint they'll quite happily share a little with members of the political class who'll keep the borders open - that part of the political class who don't already have their own inner-city BTL empire, that is.
Like, as reported, Pakistani landlords renting to Roma extended families?
The question was how you can have high house prices and lots of poor people in the same area. The answer is the houses are being bought up by landlords not the people living in them.
Re: the deconstruction of the Camelot myth: I have just finished watching the "The Cold War" series (1998) narrated by Kenneth Branagh. The episode on Cuba left me with the clear view that Kennedy was recklessly negligent in the Bay of Pigs incident, and arguably catastrophically reckless in the brinkmanship of the Cuban missile crisis. If he had survived as President until 1969, I expect he would have been worse in dealing with Vietnam than Johnson was, and may have blundered into other crises in other foreign adventures.
But anyway, why is today's Google doodle on Doctor Who instead of JFK?
He'd have had to work had in January '69 given that his successor would have been elected in November '68
I'm not sure what "he'd have had to work had in January '69" is supposed to mean, but the premise of my comment was speculating on what might have happened if Kennedy had been re-elected for a second term in 1964 and had then finished his second term on 20th January 1969.
''The Labour vote will turn out for the local elections, which next year are in London boroughs and some other areas, mostly urban ones where Labour is strong.''
Inner London is an interesting one. We read that you can't buy a garden shed for less than a quarter of a million, even in the poorest boroughs of the city, and yet labour claims to remain 'strong' here.
Something somewhere doesn't add up.
Landlords are buying the houses and filling them one family per room = high house prices + masses of poor people to vote Labour + landlords making a mint they'll quite happily share a little with members of the political class who'll keep the borders open - that part of the political class who don't already have their own inner-city BTL empire, that is.
I've not encountered any families in a room in my canvassing (and I've worked in elections in seats all over Britain), and if I did my guess is that they'd be non-voters. taffys is mistaken in thinking that Labour's vote is mostly among the poorest - in my experience, it's among people who are doing OK or better and have the chance to draw breath and look at the society around them. On the real sink estates, turnout is extremely low - if you're deep in debt and struggling to get by in daily life, voting or even registering seems a pointless distraction, like taking up train-spotting.
IMO that's a problem for democracy in general and left-wing parties in particular: the temptation that this leads to is to target policy at the not-so-desperate, but an essential compnoent of our raison d'etre is trying to help reduce extreme poverty. (It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)
"(It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)"
No surprise Osborne is trying to tightly draw the enquiry rules.
@suttonnick: AUDIO: Co-op Bank problems visible in 2011, Bank of England & Treasury turned blind eye, says Tory David Davis #wato http://t.co/cZMj140Tho
Not just a blind eye according to Mervyn King.
Yes - GO is dreading this enquiry - so much so he's er set it up himself....
"(It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)"
That would help Labour enormously of course.
Yes it would, and equal sized constituencies would help the Tories. We should still get on and do both and not worry about which parties benefit.
I've not encountered any families in a room in my canvassing (and I've worked in elections in seats all over Britain), and if I did my guess is that they'd be non-voters. taffys is mistaken in thinking that Labour's vote is mostly among the poorest - in my experience, it's among people who are doing OK or better and have the chance to draw breath and look at the society around them. On the real sink estates, turnout is extremely low - if you're deep in debt and struggling to get by in daily life, voting or even registering seems a pointless distraction, like taking up train-spotting.
IMO that's a problem for democracy in general and left-wing parties in particular: the temptation that this leads to is to target policy at the not-so-desperate, but an essential compnoent of our raison d'etre is trying to help reduce extreme poverty. (It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)
"I've not encountered any families in a room in my canvassing"
Oh.
"taffys is mistaken in thinking that Labour's vote is mostly among the poorest"
True, Labour's biggest voting percentage of all comes from the public sector rich. However labour generally gets the *plurality* of votes among the - as you say - very low turn out poor hence why labour almost always wins in poor areas. Hence taffy's question, how come these areas are both poor and have very high house prices. The answer is landlords own the houses not the people living in them and they are making a mint from breaking houses into one room "flats" hence the high house prices.
Re: the deconstruction of the Camelot myth: I have just finished watching the "The Cold War" series (1998) narrated by Kenneth Branagh. The episode on Cuba left me with the clear view that Kennedy was recklessly negligent in the Bay of Pigs incident, and arguably catastrophically reckless in the brinkmanship of the Cuban missile crisis. If he had survived as President until 1969, I expect he would have been worse in dealing with Vietnam than Johnson was, and may have blundered into other crises in other foreign adventures.
But anyway, why is today's Google doodle on Doctor Who instead of JFK?
He'd have had to work had in January '69 given that his successor would have been elected in November '68
I'm not sure what "he'd have had to work had in January '69" is supposed to mean, but the premise of my comment was speculating on what might have happened if Kennedy had been re-elected for a second term in 1964 and had then finished his second term on 20th January 1969.
I misunderstood your post (although TBF it is ambiguous). I thought you were complaining about LBJ's performance over Vietnam specifically *in 1969*. Hence with 20 days vs 345, he'd have had to work hard...
"(It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)"
That would help Labour enormously of course.
Yes it would, and equal sized constituencies would help the Tories. We should still get on and do both and not worry about which parties benefit.
If you use population, you'd get some seats with extremely small numbers of voters determining the outcome, especially in London. Surely it would be better to get people registered to vote.
"(It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)"
That would help Labour enormously of course.
Yes it would, and equal sized constituencies would help the Tories. We should still get on and do both and not worry about which parties benefit.
If you use population, you'd get some seats with extremely small numbers of voters determining the outcome, especially in London. Surely it would be better to get people registered to vote.
Getting people to register is also important - that might help Labour too.
"(It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)"
That would help Labour enormously of course.
Yes it would, and equal sized constituencies would help the Tories. We should still get on and do both and not worry about which parties benefit.
Yes, I'd be up for that, without knowing the net party impact - seems a fair compromise. Obviously it would make all parties take low-turnout seats more seriously, including more of an effort to get people to register.
By the way, don't think you've posted before? - if so, welcome aboard.
"Milestone were charging young father Andreas Luiz £1,000 a month to house his wife and child in a small, windowless room with a fake garage door."
"But these cases are far from isolated. Newham, Southwark and Ealing councils also described estate agents marketing garages and sheds that fail to meet the most basic legal requirements for habitation, such as windows."
"Milestone were charging young father Andreas Luiz £1,000 a month to house his wife and child in a small, windowless room with a fake garage door."
"But these cases are far from isolated. Newham, Southwark and Ealing councils also described estate agents marketing garages and sheds that fail to meet the most basic legal requirements for habitation, such as windows."
"BTL empires and poverty are very much connected."
Not new of course. It used to be like that in the past. Old Labour got rid of it and New Labour brought it back.
Ed Miliband lives in a Labour constituency. The houses where he lives are very big, very expensive and typically house very wealthy people who do not live one room to a family. What makes the constituency Labour is that alongside these big houses are substantial areas of council housing, where Labour is very well organised. It's also the case that a lot of the people that live in the big houses have been there for three or four decades, and have always voted Labour (see my Mum, for example). It's a similar story in many London constituencies.
Yes, I know that Doctor Who started 50 years ago today, you deranged and splobglious booliak. My question was enquiring as to the whyness of why the Google Doodle was spobbling the fact a day earlier by doing it yesterday instead of today.
Re: the deconstruction of the Camelot myth: I have just finished watching the "The Cold War" series (1998) narrated by Kenneth Branagh. The episode on Cuba left me with the clear view that Kennedy was recklessly negligent in the Bay of Pigs incident, and arguably catastrophically reckless in the brinkmanship of the Cuban missile crisis. If he had survived as President until 1969, I expect he would have been worse in dealing with Vietnam than Johnson was, and may have blundered into other crises in other foreign adventures.
But anyway, why is today's Google doodle on Doctor Who instead of JFK?
He'd have had to work had in January '69 given that his successor would have been elected in November '68
I'm not sure what "he'd have had to work had in January '69" is supposed to mean, but the premise of my comment was speculating on what might have happened if Kennedy had been re-elected for a second term in 1964 and had then finished his second term on 20th January 1969.
I misunderstood your post (although TBF it is ambiguous). I thought you were complaining about LBJ's performance over Vietnam specifically *in 1969*. Hence with 20 days vs 345, he'd have had to work hard...
My comment was not in any way ambiguous, you overwhelmingly and catastrophically booliakterous nincompoop. I was quite clearly speculating about what Kennedy would have done as President, if he had been President for the full two terms from 1961 to 1969. There is nothing in what I wrote which could possibly be interpreted as meaning that I was referring only to the final 20 days of that period to the exclusion of the other 2,902.
Ed Miliband lives in a Labour constituency. The houses where he lives are very big, very expensive and typically house very wealthy people who do not live one room to a family. What makes the constituency Labour is that alongside these big houses are substantial areas of council housing, where Labour is very well organised. It's also the case that a lot of the people that live in the big houses have been there for three or four decades, and have always voted Labour (see my Mum, for example). It's a similar story in many London constituencies.
Yes, the school catchment colonies of the public sector rich are safe - probably safer - Labour as well but not sure how that is anything to do with the current argument.
"All but one of the inner London local authority areas fall into the 20 most deprived in England, and inequality within the capital means unemployment in the poorest wards is eight times that in the richest."
"Newham in east London is the most deprived borough in England, followed by Hackney. Westminster comes fourth. The one inner-London authority that escapes the deprivation table is the City."
"In the richest wards less than 1 per cent of people live in overcrowded households, compared with 29.8 per cent in Spitalfields."
the new management of Co-op Group is concerned to reform a governance system that allowed a small number of activists in the political wing of Co-op Group to control the group's commercial activities.
It's an example, isn't it, of the thought that it only requires good men to do nothing for evil to triumph.
Mind, as I've said before if you were interested at all in politics and didn't know the Co-op was aligned with Labour you really weren't paying attention.
I know it's been suggested that most people don't know, but I thnk that whle most probably don't know the details, the vast majority have at least a vague idea.
Comments
http://www.itsourcounty.org/beliefs/
Julie Pörksen — (Alan Beith): LD, Berwick-upon-Tweed.
Karin Smyth — (Dawn Primarolo): Lab, Bristol South.
Craig Williams — (Jonathan Evans): Con, Cardiff North.
Chris Philp — (Richard Ottaway): Con, Croydon South.
Vikki Slade — (Annette Brooke): LD, Mid Dorset
Liz Evans — (Martin Caton): Lab, Gower.
Ranil Jayawardena — (James Arbuthnot): Con, Hampshire NE
Tulip Siddiq — (Glenda Jackson): Lab, Hampstead & Kilburn
Lisa Smart — (Andrew Stunell): LD, Hazel Grove.
Vicky Foxcroft — (Joan Ruddock): Lab, Lewisham Deptford.
Robert Jenrick — (Newark): Con/Ind, Newark.
Rowenna Davis — (John Denham): Lab, Southampton Itchen.
Tom Tugendhat — (John Stanley): Con, Tonbridge & Malling
:welcome-analysis-alert:
"I was sitting there gawping in open-mouthed astonishment. I was in stunned disbelief."
That was on the subject of free school meals.
DJack_Journo/status/403995162180730880/photo/1
No Flowers gag...
It should also be pointed out the Rugby seat saw a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab
FPT: Mr. Eagles: *which* Agathocles of Syracuse?
Calling Posters PB Tories/BNP etc, violates the site rules.
You have been constantly told not to call other posters racist, in any shape or form.
Any more infractions, and your posting privileges will be revoked for 72 hours.
Are we clear?
22 November 2013 5:22pm
Recommend
27
I did the same Deborah, moved from HSBC to the "ethical" Co-op - And I'm spitting furious! Run into the ground by useless regulators and a fake Methodist dope head - then worse still, taken over by hedge-funds. They say it's easy changing banks - but not if you have odds and ends of freelance income. Time to move again, though? Nationwide?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/22/i-switched-co-op-bank
Regulation, regulation, regulation...failed, failed, failed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnstaple_railway_station
The author prefers the bank is run into the ground than taken over by hedge funds. So they would rather end up with a bankrupt business and lots of people unemployed than to let some "evil capitalists" potentially make a profit
If a bank or financial adviser is desperately keen to sell you something, and tells you it's a wonderful deal: it isn't.
If a guy goes on and on about how honest he is: he isn't.
If an organisation goes on and on about how 'ethical' it is: it isn't.
But anyway, why is today's Google doodle on Doctor Who instead of JFK?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fd22de6-5364-11e3-9250-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lPoCy11q
Fought Luton South in 2010. Shortlisted in Newark and longlisted in Croydon South in the last month
http://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2013/nov/22/regulation-is-lesson-of-co-op-bank?CMP=twt_fd
Unspoofable
IMO that's a problem for democracy in general and left-wing parties in particular: the temptation that this leads to is to target policy at the not-so-desperate, but an essential compnoent of our raison d'etre is trying to help reduce extreme poverty. (It's also why arguably eligible population rather than the number who have registered should be the basis for the Boundary Commission calculations.)
In the 8 Lab and LD vacancies filled so far, all have been women.
In the 6 Con vacancies filled so far, all have been men.
That would help Labour enormously of course.
We should still get on and do both and not worry about which parties benefit.
Oh.
"taffys is mistaken in thinking that Labour's vote is mostly among the poorest"
True, Labour's biggest voting percentage of all comes from the public sector rich. However labour generally gets the *plurality* of votes among the - as you say - very low turn out poor hence why labour almost always wins in poor areas. Hence taffy's question, how come these areas are both poor and have very high house prices. The answer is landlords own the houses not the people living in them and they are making a mint from breaking houses into one room "flats" hence the high house prices.
By the way, don't think you've posted before? - if so, welcome aboard.
edit: For example
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-21574772
"Milestone were charging young father Andreas Luiz £1,000 a month to house his wife and child in a small, windowless room with a fake garage door."
"But these cases are far from isolated. Newham, Southwark and Ealing councils also described estate agents marketing garages and sheds that fail to meet the most basic legal requirements for habitation, such as windows."
The first open selection in a Labour held seat will take place at the end of the month (Greenwich and Woolwich).
Including Falkirk, 16 Labour seats won't have the sitting MP contesting it in 2015: 11 men and 5 women are leaving the Commons.
In the first 9 vacancies (5 selected, 3 underway and 1 about to start), they opted for 7 AWS and 2 Open shortlists to replace 6 men and 3 women.
In the next 7 known vacancies they are replacing 5 men and 2 women.
Not new of course. It used to be like that in the past. Old Labour got rid of it and New Labour brought it back.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/inner-london-most-deprived-part-of-britain-1581185.html
"All but one of the inner London local authority areas fall into the 20 most deprived in England, and inequality within the capital means unemployment in the poorest wards is eight times that in the richest."
"Newham in east London is the most deprived borough in England, followed by Hackney. Westminster comes fourth. The one inner-London authority that escapes the deprivation table is the City."
"In the richest wards less than 1 per cent of people live in overcrowded households, compared with 29.8 per cent in Spitalfields."
etc
"The government is to give new tax breaks to small sports clubs in an effort to boost participation.
More than 40,000 clubs could benefit by being allowed to keep up to £100,000 each in additional revenue."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25060904
Dow Jones and S&P 500 both close tonight at all time highs.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11900474
It's an example, isn't it, of the thought that it only requires good men to do nothing for evil to triumph.
Mind, as I've said before if you were interested at all in politics and didn't know the Co-op was aligned with Labour you really weren't paying attention.
I know it's been suggested that most people don't know, but I thnk that whle most probably don't know the details, the vast majority have at least a vague idea.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/video/2013/nov/22/daniel-radcliffe-video-interview