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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge toward a possible general election the latest Commo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge toward a possible general election the latest Commons Seats spreads from SportingIndex
So far I’ve only had one bet a buy of GRN seats at 1.5.
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https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1178640976346259462?s=20
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Fu*king
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Heptathlon world championship gold!
The only parties which could really benefit from tactical voting are the LDs from Labour and the Greens
Assymetry means you are effectively buying an option.
Therefore you would expect that for geographically diverse parties, their spreads (especially this far out) would overstate their chances.
So, even if you think that 30 is the most likely outcome for the LDs, then if you think there is a 5% chance they get 200 seats, you need to factor that into your betting.
This spread should not be the same as the Betfair midpoint.
It's basic human psychology: people don't like to admit that they got something wrong. And it's not just limited to Leave voters (for example, David Cameron still refusing to admit to himself that calling an EU referendum was a mistake from his own POV).
A symbolic "Brexit In Name Only", which allowed Leave voters to save face, was always going to be the most Remain-friendly possible option.
Certainly that's not the same as the modal outcome, but I don't think anyone ever suggested that betting odds should reflect the mode.
Guess we wait until Saturday?
https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1179859826740011013?s=21
Swing 3.5% Labour to Tory in Charnwood
First warning. ConHome next time.
I for one don’t believe the brexit and Tory party poll total are one and same thing nor labour and green totals. All this year we have seen greens do electorally well in Tory areas mopping up Tory remainers.
Has Boris mum had anything to say about being in that conference speech? Isn’t she the only Labour voter in the family? It was a big cheer at conference but maybe she voted leave for same reason as Corbyn and many of his union friends: EU is pro business and anti socialist revolution. A leave voter doesn’t mean a convert at the next Boris rally you know
The Charnwood result looks more interesting. Did LD stand aside for Green, or was there no available candidate?
13% swing from Labour to the Tories in Somerset too
I've not visited 'the South' before, and it carries a lot of historical baggage. But so far - Kentucky, Tennessee, a foray into north Georgia, and N Carolina, it's been great. Edit/ apart from ubiquitous grits
Probably.
Then you're allowed to tell me I'm right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbWBRnDK_AE
Swing 2.75% Labour to Tory in Cardiff as well
I wouldn't buy BXP with counterfeit but as AM and others have indicated, there is always that chance it could mop up the disaffected Tory vote. Even so they are such a disorganised bunch I can't see them converting votes into many seats. Remember UKIP in 2015 - 12% of the vote, no seats. BXP could easily match that next time around.
"I am an exceptional Remainer, Mr HYUFD. And since I'm moving up to Revoking, you should be more polite!"
BXP at 0.5 would be a sell!
Buying Conservative seats has a good chance of a small win, and a small chance of a horrendous loss.
Buying Brexit seats has a good chance of a small loss, a small chance of an enormous gain.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179905315308998656
Though if there is a perfect storm for the Tories and we see a 40/20/20 election result resulting in a 1931-style election result then even a sell on the Tories can have a chance of a horrendous loss.
If the Conservatives collapse, and the BXP rises, well, you'll probably be out of pocket but not massively.
The risk - really - is that Brexit happens but that the UK enters a recession, and in 2022 the voters are punishing you for the recession but not rewarding you for delivering Brexit. And that's a non-trivial chance.
I think it led to the chaos we have now, because had UKIP got half a dozen seats, possibly holding the balance of power, their MPs would have been expected to come up with some kind of realistic plan for Leave. But, because they were the nasty party, and it suited the establishment to ignore the ludicrous situation of Douglas Carswell representing 1/6th of the nation in the commons, it lulled them into forgetting that almost 13% voted UKIP not the 0.15% as represented in the HofC, which in turn led to Remain over confidence, thanks to the echo chamber effect
There's much that needs changing about our politics. Personally I would start with the voting system.
I would consider combining that bet with a small hedge betting on Labour 300-up on 3+ . . . if the Tories win big you lose 3x your stake which should be a small loss, but if Labour change leaders and clean up at the next election then you could massively win which should provide insurance against the Conservative collapse bet.
He's behind Sanders (who will be leaving the race due to having recently had a heart attack) and Buttigieg
Why is Nikki Halley the same odds as Mike Pence to be next President?
Why is Hillary Clinton lower odds than either, when she isn't running and wouldn't win even if she did?
For anyone who doesn't mind locking money up for a while, I'd sell Hillary, 'cause in three or four months, after she's got a solid zero delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire she'll be 999-1.
Next question: why is Andrew Yang the same odds as Pete Buttigieg or Bernie Sanders for next President? He's polling behind - oohhhh... - the entire Democratic field in Iowa, and not much better than that in New Hampshire. He can be solidly sold without risk. The move from 27-1 to 999-1 will also take just four months.
Amy Klobachar: now I've been rude to the usually eminently sensible @edmundintokyo about her in the past. But she's now 150-1 for the Democratic nomination. She's in the next debate. She lives in a state that borders Iowa. If Biden stumbles over the whole Hunter in Ukraine thing... well, maybe she benefits. OK, she probably won't benefit. But she's 150-1. That's a third the price of someone who definitely won't get the nomination. (I would point out that in one poll last month she was only a point behind Sanders in Iowa.) She has to be worth a small sum - say £10 - here.
Brexit may have been a factor, but local Green issues are big too. The area is low lying and nearby Sileby and Cossington made the national news this week with flooding. The council has planned a lot of new housing here too.
It is home to "Syston White" plums, which are an endangered indigenous variety that grows well in clay soil here. Very tasty, but not grown commercially due to erratic yields. Some years the trees are covered, other years only a half dozen plums. I have a tree in my front garden.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OilzJEcFgNo
If it is just about Brexit then Labour, PC and the Greens have the same policy (or end result) of a referendum. Easier to boost Labour over the line than the Lib Dems.
Besides how would PC and Green voters know they are not putting more meatloaf remainer Lib Dems who will go for no deal rather than work with Labour?