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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heading for Labour minority government?
At the time of writing, the Betfair odds for a Labour minority government after the expected election are 3.5 (7-2). After the Tory conference there should be a further Tory bounce, making the odds perhaps 3-1. This is, I think, too long. Here’s why.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-49887353
Either way, talking about propping up either Con or Lab under their present leaderships won't win us net votes.
Has anyone perused Dominic Cumming's blog? It's not an easy reading experience, to put it mildly.
https://dominiccummings.com
What makes me think that for all its difficulties the opposition parties should really be doing a GNU to settle Brexit (not just a Government of National Asking for an Extension) is that the arithmetic resulting from this fairly optimistic outcome, expected to last until Brexit is done at best, is... what they've got now. It's heads I lose, tails I win... the same thing that I've got already. So why flip the coin?
You fear your delusional? HY keeps quoting things like 37% (of 10K) without making clear that is a far smaller number than 5% (of four million!)
Tory remainers currently saying Tory to pollsters will vote Lib Dem. just looking at posters this site, those clearly moderate Labour for years if not decades are joining Lib Dem’s.
As to the prop up i’m Reminded of two quotes Jo will lean back on. Firstly Clegg “a vote for Lib Dem would give either the Tories a heart or Labour a head in future coalition” and then cable to his party during the 2010 coalition discussions “I’ve been fighting the Tories all my life, but we have to do this for the good of the country right now”
Others are saying the instability of such a thing means it doesn’t remotely get off the ground in the first place.
The Tory message is "Get Brexit done", and it's a good message, so get Brexit done.
I'm sure it's true that it's hard to keep this thing together long enough for it to happen, but the same is true of the Labour minority government described here that takes over and ends up in the exact same situation, *but only if everything goes right*.
You bet!
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The problem isn't that, it's:
1) Getting Corbyn to agree to move over, or getting various unlikely people to support Corbyn
2) Agreeing on a Brexit
But these are the exact same problems you'd have if you fought an election, as outlined above, and it went really well.
A minority Labour government would not need any policies, as purdah would prevent action anyway, and can be formed without the LibDems needing to break Jo Swinson's pledge not to support Jeremy Corbyn.
I guess, in order to understand what he writes you would have to be at least as smart as he is.
If only someone as smart as him could be put in charge of the Brexit process and/or running your country, that might work out really, really well.
But no need to agree any of that before somebody forms a government. Pick your person, they pick the cabinet and ask for their extension, now you've got time to haggle. If the haggling runs into a dead end then too bad, it's GE time. If they can make it work, everybody except the Tories wins.
The point is not what is desirable, where you could be right, but what is practicable. Bookies will pay out on what will have happened, not what should have happened.
I've actually built a simple model looking at the impact of tactical voting between the three main parties, which has come up with a few surprising results.
1. Lab -> LD tactical voting, actually makes very little difference. On current polling, the LDs are going to win all their marginal seats with the Tories anyway.
2. LD -> Lab tactical voting, makes quite a big difference.
3. Brexit -> Tory tactical voting makes a huge difference.
Brexit settled? How exactly is it going to be settled by this group of people.
People on the sovereignty wing aren't going to just shrug and say fair enough if we get revoke versus softest possible brexit referendum.
Brexit isn't going away, "revoke, remain, rebuild" is a fantasy that just leads to a populist "stab in the back" mythology.
Probably the only way to settle Brexit, is to have a no deal and for it to fail.
A. When did Baxter start doing this?
B. What on earth is he basing these NI predictions on?
Latest Electoral Calculus prediction:
Con 331 (+13)
Lab 213 (-49)
SNP 51 (+16)
LD 33 (+21)
DUP 9 (-1)
SF 7 (nc)
PC 3 (-1)
All 1 (+1)
Grn 1 (nc)
NI oth 1 (nc)
Bxp 0 (nc)
UKIP 0 (nc)
Con Maj 12 seats
Scotland, Wales and NI have routes out of the dystopian nightmare, but England is stuck in the mire for at least a generation.
David Cameron. Some guy!
As any election will now be after October 31st I think Boris's chances of a swing from Brexit to Tory has gone forever.
Now tell me again, Mr Corbyn, your reasons for changing your mind on having an election?
Scotland is tricky especially if it wishes to join the EU, protecting the EU single market will require a meaningful border on the Tweed. The last few years has shown it's not a easy thing to achieve. It's difficult to see how it will work.
Wales is hitched to England forever, no way out of it for them.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/outrage-over-corbyn-s-rosh-hashanah-video-featuring-hamas-kaddish-activist-1.489412
I’m afraid I’m unconvinced by the rest of the tips. We could quote credibly get a loose Labour minority without Corbyn, whilst a Labour majority Government with him is out of the question.
So long as Con + Brexit + DUP is under 305, it’s by far the most likely result. Given where that trio starts from and current political volatility, that is significantly more likely than those odds suggest.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6414414/interest-rates-cut-to-record-low-of-075pc/?cs=14264
And if Labour has a majority, it will not need an agreement with the LibDems.
Ultimately I don't see the Scottish people taking the step, in many ways independce was more viable in 2014 than today.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1178889061886496768?s=21
The quantity of border crossings is only a small vector in the overall problem.
Jennifer Arcuri’s laptop containing personal details from her time with Boris Johnson has been stolen. The American former model’s computer was snatched in Britain in the past 10 days.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-lover-petrified-after-20376100
You would think a security expert would encrypt their hard drive...
The LibDems could win it back, it looks to me like a three way marginal and the betting odss that I've seen make it more likely to be Tory or LibDem rather than Labour that wins.
It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some coaching from Cummins - they will all agree to no more extensions, so as to keep their fabled unity.
Then it it is down to Parliament - Deal or No Deal, by 31st October. The Remainers have shot themselves in the foot by saying - nay, legislating - that No Deal is an unacceptable outcome. Boris knows they have to approve a deal.
He might get some twiddly bits. The political declaration might get rewritten on a late-night napkin. But otherwise it will still be May's shit deal.
Some PMs might feel they should show at least a tinge of embarrassment at having got nowhere with negotiating against the EU. Boris just says "I have done what the previous PM could not - delivered Brexit through the House, in the teeth of the most ferocious and personal attacks from an Establishment utterly determined to use every tool to prevent this outcome. But done it I have. I gave you my word I would - or die in a ditch. Well, you can put another headstone by that ditch. One that says UK's EU membership...."
And the nation goes "thank fuck for that...."
Unless Corbyn goes, the voters will not believe that Labour is getting serious. Swinson has a winning card: making Corbyn the issue sends support her way by reminding them that he is an unrepentant nut job and she will oppose him regardless... it also makes Labour more likely to keep him, since they can not climb down, and that's a short run win for the Lib Dems too.
For the national interest, the quicker Corbyn goes, the better.
Such a minority Government today couldn’t be formed unless there were arrangements with a number of other parties for it to govern. It’s just way too short.
Whatever he does will be firmly in his own interests. I can’t imagine what the current British government could offer him that would make him malleable.
No particular view on if the tip is value or not but Swinson not wanting a formal link between the two parties isnt a huge obstacle imo.
Someone will give. Because entertaining though the stalemate is we have a hard deadline on Brexit and an increasing risk that the political terrorism we're starting to see gains a form foothold.
My assessment? Johnson happy to be removed from office by parliament (nice set up for his Election campaign), Corbyn doesn't want to delay either and wants an election. So GNU suits both. The real entertainment will be when the GNU (quite properly) points out that we are only half way through this parliament and proceeds to embark on a referendum and some constitutional reforms first...
To be equivalent to the Irish border, England would have to annex the Scottish Borders and put the border with Indy Scotland at the Antonine wall.
My only question is will the EU insist on a referendum to resolve the issue or accept that in 2051 we will be asking for another 6 month extension as the formal beginning of that (and every previous) leaders summit.
Mr. Above, do recall that Boris Johnson is an egocentric imbecile.
He did vote for May's Deal, remember. But even in the mind-bogglingly unlikely scenario that all his colleagues had voted for it - the Wollastons's, the Grieve's, the Soubry's et al - the DUP were set against it. Back then, it failed. Now it passes. That is what this past year has been about.
Just happy circumstances that it replaced May with Boris as PM.
It is also a happy circumstance that the Europhile Headbanger wing has been self-excised from the Conservative Party. Much, much easier to govern now.
May's deal is however the only thing he has and his cackhanded plans since then haven't changed the deal from May's original (and not that bad) version.
The policy of running down the clock to force a decision is the action of a bully and not of someone who wants the best for his country.
I’m afraid I don’t see the evidence that Labour will improve its position in any GE to a point where a minority Labour administration comes in firing range. It’d have to be very near 322 MPs with the SNP (let’s say PC and Greens prop it up with at least 45 SNP MPs) so it would need at least 270 MPs to be able to recommend a new PM to the Queen, and would be very shaky at that.
It’s possible but not something I’m tempted by at current odds.
In the reasonably likely outcome that Labour loses seats but the Conservatives fall short of a majority (even with the DUP), then it is quite likely that there will be no PM with the confidence of the House:
1) Labour. The Lib Dems may demand a different compromise Labour MP is made PM to have their support - which would not be entirely unreasonable in the scenario where Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result in decades. It is also likely that Corbyn would refuse this request and so no Labour government can be formed that can survive a confidence vote.
2) Conservatives. There is almost zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Conservative government that is imitating the Brexit party. It wouldn't even matter if Johnson stepped aside; there simply isn't anyone moderate enough left on the front benches to win Lib Dem support given the main issue of the day.
Which means a second election in 2020 is quite possible. The key difference will be that lots of new marginals will have been created in the aftermath of the next election.
Metaphor for the state of the Good Friday agreement?
"I wanted to end the Brexit farce. The other 26 wanted it to carry on indefinitely. In the words of the mighty Brian Clough "“We talked about it for 20 minutes and then we decided I was right”...."
The Electoral Calculus polling average (with changes on GE2017) is:
Conservative 32.3 (-11.2)
Labour 25.4 (-15.6)
Liberal Democrat 19.6 (+12)
Brexit Party 12.7 (+12.7)
Applying these changes in support to the GE2017 result in Portsmouth South would give you a result of:
Liberal Democrat 29.3
Conservatives 26.4
Labour 25.4
Brexit Party 12.7
Who is best placed to defeat the Tories? Various attempts to encourage people to vote tactically could end up with a result like this (with tactical vote change):
Conservative 28.4 (+2)
Labour 27.4 (+2)
Liberal Democrat 27.3 (-2)
Brexit Party 10.7 (-2)
Tactical voting for Labour (and between the Leave parties) has handed the seat to the Tories. Tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats would see otherwise.
How can voters be sure which way is the best to vote? I don't know. I do know that using the 2017GE results as a guide, when the national vote has changed so dramatically, will often lead a tactical voter astray.
Not that I would want Watson as PM but he might be an acceptable figleaf.
How on earth was it supposed to pass with that "support" from the leading Tory backbencher who had recently been Foreign Secretary.
Will he be ashamed? Will he lead us into captivity? Will he surrender?
"Some old colleagues have said ‘Don’t put this stuff on the internet, we don’t want the second referendum mob looking at it.’ Don’t worry! Ideas like this have to be forced down people’s throats practically at gunpoint."
When the Uk thrives post Brexit (which is nailed on barring a Jezza govt) - the ground will be laid out for an easy SNP win.
Then the small matter of having 14 months to negotiate that FTA, or another cliff edge.
It would be funny if it weren't so disastrous if a bunch of Remainer activists challenging the prorogation of Parliament in a bid to stop no deal forced us to er, leave with no deal.
Orban may be far more savvy at backroom politics, but that’s a different thing.