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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general elec
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general election then he needs to improve his approval ratings with GE2017 Labour voters
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Delayed for 3 months at best. What then? Parliament will continue blocking any deal, and eventually France/whoever are going to put their collective feet down and say no more extensions.
18% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting LD too and 8% are voting Brexit Party.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-
Your bars are the wrong way round.
Boris Johnson campaigned in his leadership election about cutting taxes for the rich, where does Johnson think the money will come from to pay for this? The poor have the most densely concentrated numbers in safe Labour seats. Tories think the rich do not have enough money and the poor should pay for tax cuts is not a strategy to win the votes of the most disadvantaged in society. Corbyn and the Labour party will run a campaign that motivates Labour voters in safe Labour seats to vote Labour.
The Tory strategy is mad as it means sacrificing circa 35 seats to LD & SNP. If the Tories do nothing in those write-offs theoretically the Tories could target 70 Labour seats but targeting a seat does not necessarily mean you are in with a chance of winning it. Sometimes increased activity by a hated political party can be counter productive to their chances. Tory targeting will also be curtailed by their diminishing membership whilst Labour , LD and SNP will have a motivated group of canvasses and leaflet delivery operatives.
BF market suggests its not totally dead.
Seems a fair price (5.7) to me.
The question is does Boris or whoever goes for No Deal feel lucky as Brexit will be blamed for every issue in the next 5 years and whoever implements it will be blamed for those issues.
Strange old world
Cambridge and Imperial College London the only other UK universities in the top 10, the other places all taken by US colleges like Harvard and Yale and Stanford.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979
Luckily for us, Parliament is not.
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1171877411572637696?s=21
Cummings policy of tax cuts for all and more money for the NHS etc as well as delivering Brexit is the only way the Tories will win a majority, they are going to lose seats to the LDs and SNP regardless, as will Corbyn Labour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49666979
The composition of the 14% Brexit voters is interesting.
8% are ex Tories. Presumably Boris is not hard enough for them and would have to offer No Deal in the Tory manifesto.
3% are ex Lab. Obviously Leavers. Not necessarily No Dealers but can't bring themselves to support the Tories. More likely to revert to Labour than Tory or stick with BXP.
3% are ex UKIP or NV. These may well not vote or stick with BXP.
I'm not sure there is much scope for the Tories to squeeze BXP much further. Perhaps 1-2%. Nor more Labour Leavers. They've already got 9% of 2017 Labour voters. Why would more switch now?
I think the Tories will get 32-33% - perhaps less if there is more of a surge of sensible mainstream Tories lending their votes to the LibDems as Swinson gets more airtime in the debates etc.
Lab, LibDem and Green will get 46-48% between them. But how effective will tactical voting be?
My tactical voting model, including the latest polls, gives:
Con 296
Lab 236
LD 48
SNP 51
I’m sure all the problems will magically drift away , except no one bar the no deal fantasists will believe a word of it .
Sad.
However for elite opinion ?
" What did you know and when did you know it ? "
The answer now being " Everything and well in advance ".
All MPs and Civil Servants have the inevitable Iraq Style Brexit inquiry in mind and post no deal " excess deaths ". You can never directly link X death to Y event but like welfare reform if you make fragile systems even more fragile some people fall off.
The ' elite ' won't allow no deal as they don't want to be cross examined under oath by the crowdfunded lawyer of a angry grieving relative in 5 years time however complex causality. Yellowhammer focuses this mindset.
Lawyers should it take as a compliment.
It is possible his seat total collapses if the election is after Oct 31, we havent left as seems likely, and his campaign is as shambolic as his government.
If it goes really well for them getting 340-350 is still possible, but I doubt it.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
Another thing I think the anti-Johnson / Cumming types are getting wrong is that the 48pc Remain bloc is one monolithic bloc. From what I can tell of my social; circle who voted Remain, it is not. You have very ardent pro-Remainers whose vote will be definitely dictated by their views on Brexit but a lot of reluctant Remainers who voted for Remain but whose heart was more pro-Brexit. Those of the latter type just want it out of the way and are quite complimentary of what Johnson has done.
So there won't be an election.
'Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’
Boris is a Berlusconi style populist, tax cuts and more spending cake for all.
He will run a campaign precisely the opposite of May's dour tax rises and spending cuts for all campaign in 2017
So Universal Credit didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?
So National Minimum Wage didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?
So Tax Credits didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?
So open borders didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?
So education reforms didn't gamble with the livelihoods of the poorest in this country?
Parliament gambles with the livelihoods of everyone affected whenever it enacts changes.
As I understand it It's entirely possible the Supreme Court could rule the prorogation was unlawful under Scottish law, but lawful under English law. This would be unhelpful.
Do none of you, blathering on about "coups" and proragations and the minutiae of parliamentry convention, understand quite how badly this is playing...? Clearly not.
Come voting day many of you are in for a rude surprise....
It will not be popular in Surrey. I can see lots of Remainers, intending to vote Labour or Lib Dem, looking at that list, and thinking.... ok, that's worse than No Deal.
You have been telling us for days that it wouldn't work.
Why the change of heart?
But stay in the bubble if it makes you happy.
The Scottish opinion states that because the PM misled the Queen , that this made the decision unlawful .
I think to be honest even though I’m an ardent Remainer and detest Bozo the first opinion seems pretty sound .
However I think the key issue that might come up . This Perogative power could allow a PM to effectively shut the Commons for as long as they liked . Unless that power is restricted . Normally our conventions have survived contact with some pretty rubbish governments, but Brexit has now brought the law and convention into conflict .
This, in fact, is horribly plausible. Maybe it will be a good thing.
Certainly I think many have made their minds up (on either side) and now everything feeds their fears/Hope's etc