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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fingering the index. A proposed technical change that is hugely important
Sir David Norgrove, Chair of @ukstatsauth, said: "We welcome the Chancellor’s intention to consult on resolving current issues with the RPI. We continue to urge the Government and others to cease to use the RPI." https://t.co/PmxWytJkal
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Though of course there will remain a bit of a difference between CPI and CPIH.
Mr Meeks will know how much it will reduce at the stroke of a pen, the deficits in Co pension schemes, but a lot one would think.
How much it will save the Govt in terms of state schemes, well it must be massive sums.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-an-elite-university-research-center-concealed-its-relationship-with-jeffrey-epstein
Dozens of pages of e-mails and other documents obtained by The New Yorker reveal that, although Epstein was listed as “disqualified” in M.I.T.’s official donor database, the Media Lab continued to accept gifts from him, consulted him about the use of the funds, and, by marking his contributions as anonymous, avoided disclosing their full extent, both publicly and within the university. Perhaps most notably, Epstein appeared to serve as an intermediary between the lab and other wealthy donors...
Interestingly, he is also on the board of the New York Times.
Until the Govt removes the triple lock the change won’t change the state pension either.
F1: after all the faff yesterday nothing happened to the grid order beyond the penalties already known about (Gasly and some others). Had a few bets in mind and will shortly check the markets.
2019 1/6
2020 5/1
2021 66/1
2022 or later 40/1
Best prices - Result of Next Independence Referendum
For independence 5/6
Against independence EVS
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/07/ken-clarke-interview-andrew-rawnsley-lost-tory-whip
I wonder how many SCon PPCs are going to promote themselves as “BoZo the Clown’s Candidate”?
As of today, no longer on NYT board, either. About it does make one wonder why we didn’t get to read more about Epstein sooner.
It has been suggested, that if the Prime Minister got the general election he wants, he could then postpone the election over October 31, so that the Brexit without a deal would happen by default. Can he do the same with the prorogation? Can he postpone the Queen's speach over October 31, so that the parliament will be on recess while the Brexit happens?
Johnson is not trying to get a deal through and rend the party asunder.
I think this has been covered here and the answer is no, he cannot tinker with proroguation in the way you suggest.
I wonder how much of that drop was due to yesterday’s news coverage of Bozo ignoring the law .
But back to Brexit and BoZo, what does Canada's best selling paper make of this week in British politics?
https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1170349845602852864?s=19
To answer your questions, once a date is decided, that's the date. A PM could announce a date quite a way in the future; Major did in 1997.
Prorogation's different; the Monarch decides when it should start, or the range of dates when it should start, and IIRC, how long it can be, or when it should finish.
It's all a bit cloudy though; we've never been in this situation before. Certainly since 1800 or so, although someone will tell me if I'm wrong.
Dominic Cummings has revolutionary designs for the way government policies are devised, decided and delivered, where "flawed" human decision making is mended by big data modelling and machine intelligence.
The Government advisor, currently war-gaming the next move for Mr Johnson, sees gaping errors in the state of political affairs suggesting they currently rely on idealistic human narratives and personal authorities prone to “systemic dysfunction and the influence of grotesque incompetents."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1174863/dominic-cummings-brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-eu-tory-rebels-artificial-intelligence
This sounds like something from the early 1950s US.
In theory, an unscrupulous and mendacious PM could name one date in the Commons, and another one in audience with the Queen.
https://youtu.be/4DQsG3TKQ0I
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1170580149072519168
(1) Pretty reliable.
(2) Extremely reliable.
(3) Azbantium. Four hundred times harder than diamond. Twenty feet thick.
In many ways Cummings summary analyses of government failure are highly to the point and accurate. But they are largely features of democracy, and cannot be got rid of without getting rid of democracy itself. And that is a necessary, not a sufficient, requirement of what he claims to desire. Because even removing the electorate from the equation, human failings (both benign and malicious) will still be manifest within the system.
It is also ironic that he claims things like the EU referendum campaign as evidence that he is right. A campaign that wasn't about taking the right decisions, but taking decisions that ultimately were designed to do no more than maximise popular (human) support for a proposition on a single day in history.
A bit like trying to predict how far the wreckage will scatter when a car goes off a cliff.
Betting PostF1: backed Bottas at 9.5 (with boost), each way (third the odds top 2) to win. I think he's very close and the Mercedes looks closer than the Ferrari than last week.
If you've got a pound spare, Albon at 376 likewise could be worth a little. Odds against but I think the sheer length of the odds on Ladbrokes (301 basic, 376 with boost) are just excessive.
Yesterday was a poor news cycle for Bozo . Ignoring the law isn’t a good look.
So that might have had an impact .
But for now a quickie on the political crisis -
The Queen's Speech is a farce it seems to me. The 'government' cannot get anything remotely serious through. So this event should surely be cancelled until a new government is formed, whether that be after an election or otherwise. If it goes ahead in these circumstances, the Queen is having the piss taken out of her.
You could go further. Make a 93 year old lady sit for hours, wearing punishment clothes, reading out stuff on live prime time TV that everyone and his dog knows is utter bullshit - is this not abuse?
Good thread header.
But one can certainly argue that it is an abuse of process.
In fact I would. I just have.
How the lead will respond to "events dear boy events" I have no idea (and anyone who claims they do know is a liar and a knave) and is why I have not placed any bets of any sort on a forthcoming election.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49624132
This is all part of the demonization of Boris that seems to be at the forefront of any radio phone in or forum chat.
There is obviously extreme concern within that cohort that Boris can still reach the voters that other voters can not reach.
And on another subject I sail from Southampton on Saturday for Nova Scotia and the Atlantic Coast. It was hit yesterday by the same hurricane that hit the Bahamas and it centred on Halifax. Ever so pleased we were not moored in Halifax last night as we will be in two weeks
Good work.
Can you think of any other circumstances where a Prime Minister (especially a Conservative Prime Minister) has argued from such a position - whether in relation to themselves or the actions of others? There's a big difference between expressing sympathy for a cause (eg. pursued by those breaking the law) and expressing support for/potentially encouraging the lawbreaking itself.
(It could be pointed out that this is a line oft put forward by the current Labour leadership, and I think a major part of where they find themselves today - Europe issue notwithstanding)
In this case, the contents will be not a programme for government but essentially the highlights of what the Tory manifesto under Johnson will be if there is an election.
Therefore the correct place for these policies is that Tory manifesto. If they do appear there, and the party wins an election, THEN we can and must have a QS which turns them into government policy.
That is the correct sequence of events.
Over-reliance on computing power to predict and inform policy-making in complex, messy human scenarios? The Soviets were big on that (Read 'Red Plenty' by Francis Spufford) but the apocryphal US 'Victory Index' is also a good warning from history on the dangers of using big data: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/10/the-computer-that-predicted-the-us-would-win-the-vietnam-war/542046/
And if you think "But we have more sophisticated computers now, and AI to tidy everything up", it's still a force-multiplier for a flawed philosophy that at the heart of it has a citizen sticking their fingers up at being told to do something 'cos it's the overwhelmingly 'logical' thing to do.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1170589084882034688?s=20
Thats your and their interpretation of what he has said.
Last time i checked you havent broken any law until you have. Now the "remainers" want to have a court case because in their view he may break the law...
This is quite mad and people are seeing through it.
They can't do a worse at running the country than Dominic Cummings.
The Parliamentary numbers are now totally confusing to me.
On Boris he is on course to destroy the one nation section which includes myself and requires each mp to sign a no deal pledge. Any conservative refusing will be deselected but the problem is that there is an army of TBP MEPs who could be used in an agreement between Farage and Boris. Farage has already announced he will not stand his candidates in the 28 spartan seats and is looking at an agreement that his party will be given free run in Doncaster to take on Ed Miliband
It also looks as if Boris is to seek a judicial review on the no deal act and no doubt John Bercow will be at the heart of the case on the grounds he failed to act impartially and assisted one side of the argument, rather than being even handed
When a GE comes around it raises a huge issue for me. In almost every case I would not vote conservative but if by doing so I put Corbyn in no 10 that would be a step too far. I suspect many thousands of conservatives face the same difficult decision.
I would say I could vote lib dem and quite like Jo Swinson and in any election I hope she does well but in Aberconwy it is a straight conservative-labour marginal
He has said he is prepared to defy a law passed by Parliament. He has also said "in theory" he would be breaking the law by so doing.
It is pushing it to say that people are "seeing through" false arguments that he is saying he is prepared to break the law. People backing him are those accepting him of the idea of him breaking the law (because of their views on Brexit), not because they are looking into the nuances of whether he is actually prepared to do so.
Yes, yes, technically there's a strong case for it (although one can debate whether consumers trading down to cheaper goods isn't in principle a genuine loss of value). I wonder if the technical discussion will feature prominently in Labour and LibDem leaflets, rather than just JOHNSON TO ATTACK YOUR PENSION?
"My Lords and members of the House of Commons. My government will legislate in the interests of everyone in our country. My government policy is Bollocks to the European Union. No other measures will be laid before you.
My Lords and members of the House of Commons
I pray that the blessing of almighty God may rest upon your counsels. Fat chance".
I say again in this country you have not broken the law until you have no matter what you say.
If Jeremy Corbyn were to be ousted, Boris and Brexit would be flushed away in moments.
I am not sure who I detest more.
My wife and I have had a lifetime love of the sea and we have been fortunate to sail the seven seas over the last 10 years
Anyway, when Boris does decide to call a vote of No Confidence in his Government, even harder to imagine Rudd now voting to keep it in place. Which will suit Boris just fine, as he side-steps the FTPA.....
A great many constituents in Con-Lab marginals now find themselves in a most invidious position. I can't see an alternative Government that can command a majority coalescing around anyone. There's no majority for Corbyn as PM, and no incentive for Corbyn to back anyone other than himself. The polls are all over the shop. Presumably the pollsters are all implementing different models for trying to understand the current state of chaos - though, in any event, none of their results tell us anything useful. We've no idea if they bear any relation to present reality, and we know from the 2017 vote that they'll almost certainly bear no relation whatsoever to reality on polling day itself.
Personally, I'm therefore inclined not to get too excited about any of them.