Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
F1: looking again at the FP2 times, decided to back Hamilton at 4.5 each way to be the fastest qualifier. I wouldn't advocate equal stakes, but might be worth a little on Bottas at 21 likewise. Depends how well Mercedes are doing with their new engine.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
To save the union we may need a non English PM. I think much of the country is getting sick of the Eton public school brigade.
BoZo resigns, Corbyn takes over, tables WA4 and we leave on Oct 31st
Jezza is a Brexit hero and BoZo is a footnote
lol, but no, I think more like
BoZo resigns or they VONC him, Corbyn takes over (or Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart or whoever, with Corbyn having some kind of "be responsible for something important and ostentatiously don't break it" position), rejig the PD to be more Norway-ish, pass that with the existing WA it subject to a referendum.
Referendum in January, out or revoke by Jan 31st. Election after that or not, see how it goes.
I don't think it's possible to hold a referendum at such short notice but we need it just to get this mess out of the way.
All the Conservatives are/were either PM or Cabinet members and you forgot to name any Referendum SNP "Loser"
Wilson - loser Salmond - mostly a loser (2011 being a truly dazzling exception) Swinney - loser Sturgeon - loser Robertson - loser
I'm spotting a pattern here too...
But then, as Enoch Powell noted with uncharacteristic accuracy, all political careers end in failure. It's just recently most of our politicians haven't had any success beforehand either.
What did they lose then
Elections. Oh, and Salmond and Sturgeon lost a referendum apiece as well.
Of course, it depends a bit on how you define 'loser.' Sturgeon lost Salmond's hard earned majority ((c) TSE) but she did still have by far the most seats.
Mind you, I used to be a Plaid voter and they've never won anything at all.
Stretching it there Ydoethur Salmond came close but did lose the referendum only just, but given his 2007 and 2011 wins could not in any sense ever be seen as a loser. Sturgeon won her election is still in power and I cannot see where she lost anything. Wilson , was many moons ago and hardly an SNP party then, bit like saying now that the Greens had lost the election Swinney was only local and did not do great but hardly lost anything Robertson lost his seat
Some real petty stuff on here re Scotland, but hey as everything is rosy in England you have to have something to talk about.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
David has just lost the plot , she is going nowhere, she saw writing on the wall and got out before being humiliated. She will pop up in a nice sinecure , quango , think tank etc.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I think he was using hyperbole
As mentioned, I wouldn't want shorter than about 15-1 on an outright tory win and even that's probably being generous.
I would happily back the Tories at anything better than about evens. 15-1? There are simply too many imponderables that could make that seem like too generous a price.
Simply, the Tories lead in the polls, and it's entirely possible the Remain vote will be split.
But, as I said, who knows? If the UK enters a recession this year, 15-1 might look skinny.
Saying something should be ‘15/1’ alone should be a yellow card, when 14/1, 16/1 or ‘a 6% chance’ are available, but saying something should be 15/1 and refusing to lay 5/1 should be instant ban....THIS IS A BETTING SITE!!
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Problem is they need to be doing better than “OK” to defeat Brexit.
I think it is hard to evaluate in Scotland, where the SNP juggernaut comes into play, but in Westminster polling in Scotland the SLibs are up. Whether it is enough and concentrated in the right places will be telling. If I were her, I would invite Davidson Jr over for a play date, with photographers...
South of the border, obviously she is person non grata with die-hard Leavers, but she plays very well to Remainers, women, youngsters and those wanting a more cross party approach to politics. She also wins over Remainer Tories put off by Corbynite Labour.
She will be fine, and in a campaign will look like the fresh face.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
The truth is...
...no-one knows.
LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.
No-one knows.
My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)
But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.
Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Problem is they need to be doing better than “OK” to defeat Brexit.
They don't need to defeat Brexit. They're not set to explode if it happens, though no dpubt many feel that way.
Typical Tory! You interpreted what I said as being about the narrow interests of a political party. I was, of course, thinking about the wider interests of the country.
I’ll give you Tories something: you are predictable.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
You might be better asking an Englishman or woman but I don't think that her accent gives her a problem. What she brings is that she is personable, witty and superb at interviews (no doubt on the back of her TV background). The Tories have remarkably few people with these strengths, things you would have thought most politicians really ought to have. It's a pretty poor field which is presumably how Boris managed to come top the last time.
As for the EVEL issue, that did seem to risk Scottish MPs becoming second class citizens in the HoC but so far at least it has not worked out that way, possibly because both the last 2 administrations have had a remarkably light legislative agenda. A government that actually paid some attention to, well, governing might be different.
If Boris did win the next general election then I suspect he would lead the Tories at the subsequent general election too only going if the Tories most that general election too (a likely scenario after 14 years in power as would be the case then).
I agree that either way, whether Boris goes in government or in opposition Dominic Raab is the likely next Tory leader, holding one of the biggest government posts as Foreign Secretary now and the likeliest candidate to be able to win both Tory MPs and Tory members
Incidentally, the photo in the header interests me. Larry has his ears folded back and looks annoyed, and his slight crouch matches. That is not a cat wanting attention by jumping on the desk. Larry has been placed there by someone for the photo, and is none too ppleased with it.
Not sure about pop cat psychology. He might just have spotted something to eat on the other side of the room.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Have you asked HY and his fellow psychiatric ward patients how they feel at the prospect of arch-Remainer Ruth Davidson leading the Conservative Party?
I was playing for a civic service last night. Amanda Milling was there and at the bunfight afterwards I noticed she looked haggard.
I tactfully passed her a plate of sandwiches and kept schtum. After all, she did vote for the WA.
If the next election is six or more months away, I wonder how many other MPs will conclude like Jo Johnson that this just isn't worth it.
A couple of days working after 2 months holidays, the poor souls. A few days hard work is what the useless losers need, preferably with picks and shovels whilst wearing ankle bracelets.
Was there a failure by successive governments to keep voters onside on Europe, particularly when it came to consequences of Treaties of Nice, Lisbon, Maastricht.
I don't think it's possible to hold a referendum at such short notice but we need it just to get this mess out of the way.
I think you could easily do it in 3 months. I know there's Electoral Commission guidance about it being longer but if everyone's in a hurry, which they are, you can pass the legislation much more quickly, and tell the EC not to faff around checking the question or whatever. And you can Brexit very quickly after the referendum if you're going into the transition and you've already passed all the (binding) legislation. You probably want to, as Leave people will be legitimately worried that they're going to have to keep on voting over and over until they give the right answer.
I think you misunderstood my post. I am not saying that the chances of the Tories winning an election are one in ten thousand. Clearly they're 50/50 or better.
I am saying that given the appalling mess they are in they SHOULD have only one chance in ten thousand. That they have a better chance than that is a truly shocking indictment of Labour.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
David , you are too old for teenage crushes, the big one has left the building.
I was playing for a civic service last night. Amanda Milling was there and at the bunfight afterwards I noticed she looked haggard.
I tactfully passed her a plate of sandwiches and kept schtum. After all, she did vote for the WA.
If the next election is six or more months away, I wonder how many other MPs will conclude like Jo Johnson that this just isn't worth it.
A couple of days working after 2 months holidays, the poor souls. A few days hard work is what the useless losers need, preferably with picks and shovels whilst wearing ankle bracelets.
I am struggling to follow your chain of reasoning Malcolm...
Anyway, fuck politics, it is a gorgeous early autumn day in Devon and off to Kingsbridge show. The dog can meet a hundred other pooches, and I can watch five year old lads in white stockmans coats and flat caps demonstrate to Boris how to handle a bull....
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Have you asked HY and his fellow psychiatric ward patients how they feel at the prospect of arch-Remainer Ruth Davidson leading the Conservative Party?
Incoming!
You are assuming that Brexit is going to continue to dominate. If we leave it won't. And she has accepted that we need to leave given the result. Being a democrat and all.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
You might be better asking an Englishman or woman but I don't think that her accent gives her a problem. What she brings is that she is personable, witty and superb at interviews (no doubt on the back of her TV background). The Tories have remarkably few people with these strengths, things you would have thought most politicians really ought to have. It's a pretty poor field which is presumably how Boris managed to come top the last time.
As for the EVEL issue, that did seem to risk Scottish MPs becoming second class citizens in the HoC but so far at least it has not worked out that way, possibly because both the last 2 administrations have had a remarkably light legislative agenda. A government that actually paid some attention to, well, governing might be different.
David , she is crap at any interview that is not scripted and by a patsy. She cannot think on her feet and cannot answer awkward questions.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
That poll would still see Boris in Downing Street with 311 Tory MPs and with DUP and Brexit Party support (the Brexit Party would also win a few MPs on 17% of the vote ie 5% higher even than UKIP got in 2015, seats like Thurrock, Mansfield, Ashfield etc Electoral Calculus have going Brexit Party on those numbers).
Plus remember Survation was the only pollster to underestimate the Tories lead in the 2017 general election and overestimated the Labour voteshare in the European Parliament elections
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Have you asked HY and his fellow psychiatric ward patients how they feel at the prospect of arch-Remainer Ruth Davidson leading the Conservative Party?
Incoming!
You are assuming that Brexit is going to continue to dominate. If we leave it won't. And she has accepted that we need to leave given the result. Being a democrat and all.
If we leave, do you really think the future relationship negotiations will be a low-key affair?
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
David , you are too old for teenage crushes, the big one has left the building.
Too old? Wife's birthday today, I am officially a toy boy for the next 20 days Malcolm. You may be right, she may have had enough politics altogether but I can see a fresh challenge getting her going again.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
Boris Johnson: ‘Scots should not become prime minister’
“government by a Scot is just not conceivable in the current constitutional context”
In the 2005 diary piece in The Spectator, Mr Johnson continued: “Not only is Scotland full of rotten boroughs, where Labour MPs are returned by relatively tiny electorates but, as I never tire of saying, we English MPs can be overruled by Scottish MPs on very controversial questions, affecting our constituents, when we have no corresponding say over those questions in Scotland, and those Scottish MPs themselves have no say over those questions, so that John Reid, Scottish health secretary for the so-called UK, has no say over health questions in so far as they affect his own constituents.
Some say this is just inside-beltway stuff. They are wrong. It makes English audiences roar with anger, and it explains why Gordon Brown makes so many speeches about ‘Britishness’ and ‘British values’.
“He’s not really interested in British values. He’s worried about his personal political disability as a Scottish MP, and so he should be.”
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
To save the union we may need a non English PM. I think much of the country is getting sick of the Eton public school brigade.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
The truth is...
...no-one knows.
LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.
No-one knows.
My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)
But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.
Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
Thought I'd read that Rory won't be standing?
Well, when he was interviewed couple of days ago on R4, he was pretty clear that he would be!
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
The truth is...
...no-one knows.
LibDems believe their "team" will soar during the election campaign. Labourites believe it will be a rerun of 2017. BJers think they'll suck the Brexit Party dry and land a 100 seat majority.
No-one knows.
My view is that an early election favours the Conservatives, but that they will lost 5-15 Remain seats to the LibDems (probably at the lower end of the range), and 8-10 seats to the SNP. I also think that the Alliance will do surprisingly well in Northern Ireland, as it allows people to vote against "a hard border" without crossing sectarian lines. (In Sinn Fein seats, a combination of wanting an MP that actually turns up, combined with a bit of Unionist tactical voting wouldn't surprise me in the least.)
But these 15-20 losses will likely be made up by gains from Labour. I'd expect 20-30 gains there, resulting in a small overall Conservative majority.
Go beyond the end of the year mind, and irrespective of Brexit, the UK and the world will likely have drifted into recession. That won't be a fun time, as the governing party, to ask for a mandate. And if it's in the context of "No Deal", it may be especially painful. (Not the recession, but the electoral response; the electorate rarely looks beyond the border.)
That all makes sense. However, I'd foresee some of the 21 running successfully as independent Conservatives - Rory Stewart, for example, resulting in further cuts to a slim majority.
Thought I'd read that Rory won't be standing?
After the whip was withdrawn he made a comment at an event about the end of his political career, but afterwards said he would be standing, IIRC.
With usual short termism Remainers are acting as if averting no deal with an extension averts no deal. It doesn’t! It’s 3 months! An election in November will be fought on pretty much exactly the same terms as one on October 15th.
Everyone agrees that the current Parliament is not fit for purpose. The only option is to seek one that is. It might not happen, but if we don’t have an election, and one as soon as possible before the clever clogs in parliament come up with any more cunning wheezes, we will never know.
If that leads to a Johnson majority and him choosing to continue to pursue no deal (i’m not sure he would with a majority - he’d prefer to serve 5 years and the option of being forced out by a VoNC would have been removed. Also wouldn’t have to listen to the DUP who could have been weakened by a GE anyway) then so be it. At least it would be solely his responsibility and wouldn’t be able to claim that the opposition/parliament were thwarting a deal.
Incidentally, the photo in the header interests me. Larry has his ears folded back and looks annoyed, and his slight crouch matches. That is not a cat wanting attention by jumping on the desk. Larry has been placed there by someone for the photo, and is none too ppleased with it.
Not sure about pop cat psychology. He might just have spotted something to eat on the other side of the room.
Not sure about cats but if my dog were exhibiting those signs I'd say it wasn't happy. Can't blame it. Would you be happy if Boris were using you as a prop for a photo opportunity?
The opposition are duty bound to keep Johnson in post for as long as possible giving him maximum exposure to the public. He has no majority let him stew in his own juice.
I have to say though Nichomar, I don't hink opposition parties refusing an election is a good look. The Liberal Democrats will probably be OK because their supporters care above all about stopping Brexit and an election will make that harder. The SNP will be OK because they have a headlock on Scotland and don't stand candidates outside it.
But Labour are going to face very awkward questions as to why they had a chance to turf out this shambles via an election and refused. And that's going to be their membership that get mad at them, not just their voters.
I’m not sure “Labour stopped us having an Election” is a great message in the middle of an election.....
It wouldn't be. But narratives are set before elections. At the moment, we are in a situation where they can be portrayed as scared of the voters. Should they change their minds, and we hold an election, they can be portrayed as inept and vacillating, the more so given the truly bizarre nature of some of their policies.
Of course, they may overcome this - they did before - but they seem determined to make life difficult for themselves.
Given the election- if it comes - will only be a couple of weeks after Johnson wanted it I think the upside for temporary delay is with Labour “we wanted to wait until we’d got the extension because we don’t trust Johnson like his ex-wife, his ex-girlfriends and brother - if they won’t trust him why should we?” Meanwhile Farage and BXP are monstering Johnson because he’s failed to hit the French President’s deadline of Oct 31 an elephant trap of Johnson’s own making.
Anyway, fuck politics, it is a gorgeous early autumn day in Devon and off to Kingsbridge show. The dog can meet a hundred other pooches, and I can watch five year old lads in white stockmans coats and flat caps demonstrate to Boris how to handle a bull....
Have a great day, I am off to football later with my grandson, brilliant sunshine here as well, about the first for a month. Will have a few beers, pie and bovril at half time, cracking day all round.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
She was favourite at one point.
I blame punters who have zero knowledge of Scottish politics, but stake hard cash based on the mad comments made on PB and similar sites, by folk who also have zero knowledge of Scottish politics.
There are only a handful of Unionists around here who have a good grasp of politics north of the border, and no, I’m not going to assist opponents of Scottish self-government by naming them
Anyway, fuck politics, it is a gorgeous early autumn day in Devon and off to Kingsbridge show. The dog can meet a hundred other pooches, and I can watch five year old lads in white stockmans coats and flat caps demonstrate to Boris how to handle a bull....
Have a great day, I am off to football later with my grandson, brilliant sunshine here as well, about the first for a month. Will have a few beers, pie and bovril at half time, cracking day all round.
English football team Malcy?. That Scottish football is dire...
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Have you asked HY and his fellow psychiatric ward patients how they feel at the prospect of arch-Remainer Ruth Davidson leading the Conservative Party?
Incoming!
You are assuming that Brexit is going to continue to dominate. If we leave it won't. And she has accepted that we need to leave given the result. Being a democrat and all.
If we leave, do you really think the future relationship negotiations will be a low-key affair?
Probably not but it will not be nearly as all enveloping as this is. We may talk about something else for hours at a time, even without a test match to distract us.
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
David , you are too old for teenage crushes, the big one has left the building.
Too old? Wife's birthday today, I am officially a toy boy for the next 20 days Malcolm. You may be right, she may have had enough politics altogether but I can see a fresh challenge getting her going again.
I don't see it David, her six months off with new baby has made up her mind that there are better things in life than wading in a sewer every day, especially when you know you are going nowhere and leading donkeys. Unless really stupid she will take a nice think tank job on six figures and have a cushy life. If Kezia no brains can get a cushy number she should have little problem.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Anyway, fuck politics, it is a gorgeous early autumn day in Devon and off to Kingsbridge show. The dog can meet a hundred other pooches, and I can watch five year old lads in white stockmans coats and flat caps demonstrate to Boris how to handle a bull....
Have a great day, I am off to football later with my grandson, brilliant sunshine here as well, about the first for a month. Will have a few beers, pie and bovril at half time, cracking day all round.
English football team Malcy?. That Scottish football is dire...
And for those of you convinced of the Cummings strategy to sweep the Labour heartlands ... Deja Vu.
"Theresa May laid bare the Conservatives’ ambitions to capture some of Labour’s most historic seats in England in a speech on Thursday night, telling voters in Leeds to put aside their traditional allegiances and vote “in the national interest”.
In a sign of the Conservatives’ bullishness about their chances in Labour’s northern heartlands, May told voters in Harehills that it was the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the ballot, not the traditional party."
Listening to Rachel Sylvester on Radio 4 Johnson is finished. The game's over. If she's correct wouldn't this be the moment for him to declare war on someone?
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Listening to Rachel Sylvester on Radio 4 Johnson is finished. The game's over. If she's correct wouldn't this be the moment for him to declare war on someone?
He’s currently at war with himself, looks like he’s losing.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Vicky Pollard???
A frankly sexist comment
Jo Swinson has a first from the LSE, She has more ministerial experience than several on the Tory or Labour front benches and she is widely regarded as a great example of a working Mum. Oh and has also won multiple awards as a Parliamentarian.
She is also surrounded by some great advisers, including incidentally Ed Davey, and leads a party that is undergoing a huge increase in membership and support. She is a serious political leader- and there are none of those in the Cabinet (and not many in the shadow cabinet) right now.
So while you might *want* to believe this, the reality is that Swinson is set to be a very significant figure both during the General election campaign and in the next Parliament.
And for those of you convinced of the Cummings strategy to sweep the Labour heartlands ... Deja Vu.
"Theresa May laid bare the Conservatives’ ambitions to capture some of Labour’s most historic seats in England in a speech on Thursday night, telling voters in Leeds to put aside their traditional allegiances and vote “in the national interest”.
In a sign of the Conservatives’ bullishness about their chances in Labour’s northern heartlands, May told voters in Harehills that it was the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the ballot, not the traditional party."
Except Cummings did actually win those areas in the EU referendum and Boris is a Leaver while May was a Remainer.
Cummings and Boris are forcing clear blue water with Corbyn on Brexit while easing off on austerity and pushing tax cuts, May's campaign saw her largely agree with Corbyn on Brexit while pushing more austerity and the dementia tax
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Well nobody can accuse him of following conventional wisdom of keeping options open. He’s been operating in ever decreasing circles for 2-3 months now.
Whilst the public are obviously aware of what is going on in a broader sense, and a clearly very unhappy, it will take a real political outrage to create the enviroment for a real populist backlash.
I have my fingers crossed for remainer MPs telling Boris to delay Brexit, him refusing and them setting up a puppet government to thwart the UK's exit.
The GE that follows will see the LD's ok but Labour will be utterly gutted out.
Looks like you're pretty new here. Welcome.
Anyway, you must be living in cloud cuckoo land. The Tories are in the process of ripping themselves apart. With a lying scumbag at the helm, their prospects dwindle by the day.
NOM will be the result of the next GE when it happens either in November or the spring.
The real value is in the Labour majority odds. That's the value bet.
Actually I agree with both you and David. If the Tories win, then those prices that David quotes are very attractive. Johnson doesn't have the air of someone wanting to do the job for ages, and if he runs into trouble after winning (and what government doesn't, to be put it at the mildest?) I can see him declaring victory (got Brexit, beat Corbyn, got another Tory term) and retiring to write scintillating memoirs. At that point, those prices will crash to more like 3-1.
Conversely, though, the market is underestimating the Labour odds in the current situation where none of us really have much clue what will happen next week, let alone two months hence. 14 is a bonkers price for Labour majority, and 3.75 is too long for most seats. So backing both the Tory front-runners as next PM and a Labour win look reasonable bets.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead as a martyr to Leavers, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case).
More likely though Boris will resign as PM and become Leader of the Opposition rather than extend than try to stay put and risk jail
Re: Johnson ignoring Parliament. He obviously isn’t well versed in the English Civil War. Are there any examples from classical antiquity from which he may be drawing inspiration? Or cautionary tales that he should be taking account of?
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
A word of warning to anyone thinking of staking cash on next Con leader: it’s not that long ago since one of the top names on that list was Ruth Davidson.
I wonder what happened to her?
#RuthForFM
Ho ho.
I wouldn't throw those receipts away just yet. An entirely possible scenario now is that Ruth decides it is better for her to be out of Holyrood, not overshadowing her successor and stands for Westminster instead. If she is elected there the odds on her will fall sharply. She will get nowhere with Boris as leader of course but as David has pointed out that may not be forever.
Indeed. But if she is aiming at the heights - both PM and one of the great offices such as Home Sec - she would need to be in an English seat would she not? EVEL and all that - not so much directly but because of the possible perceived implication that the PM 'must' be English in the sense of holding an English constituency seat (ie to be somehow valid). Also, what do you think about perceptions of her accent and intonation? To sound Scots is not always a good thing in some political arenas. I find such things difficult to detect myself so it'd be interesting what you think.
You might be better asking an Englishman or woman but I don't think that her accent gives her a problem. What she brings is that she is personable, witty and superb at interviews (no doubt on the back of her TV background). The Tories have remarkably few people with these strengths, things you would have thought most politicians really ought to have. It's a pretty poor field which is presumably how Boris managed to come top the last time.
As for the EVEL issue, that did seem to risk Scottish MPs becoming second class citizens in the HoC but so far at least it has not worked out that way, possibly because both the last 2 administrations have had a remarkably light legislative agenda. A government that actually paid some attention to, well, governing might be different.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Listening to Rachel Sylvester on Radio 4 Johnson is finished. The game's over. If she's correct wouldn't this be the moment for him to declare war on someone?
He’s currently at war with himself, looks like he’s losing.
LOL both. Could we get Trump in the same sinking boat?
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Re: Johnson ignoring Parliament. He obviously isn’t well versed in the English Civil War. Are there any examples from classical antiquity from which he may be drawing inspiration? Or cautionary tales that he should be taking account of?
There are rumours that next week he'll be making Dilyn a consul.
Can somebody point out what the penalty in law would be for Boris ignoring the stop no deal bill? Is that set out in the legislation?
IMO it's the one thing that would make a majority of MPs accept Corbyn's caretaker offer. A PM who openly refuses to obey the law will be seen even by a number of Tories as worse than a brief period of constrained left-wingery.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Vicky Pollard???
A frankly sexist comment
Jo Swinson has a first from the LSE, She has more ministerial experience than several on the Tory or Labour front benches and she is widely regarded as a great example of a working Mum. Oh and has also won multiple awards as a Parliamentarian.
She is also surrounded by some great advisers, including incidentally Ed Davey, and leads a party that is undergoing a huge increase in membership and support. She is a serious political leader- and there are none of those in the Cabinet (and not many in the shadow cabinet) right now.
So while you might *want* to believe this, the reality is that Swinson is set to be a very significant figure both during the General election campaign and in the next Parliament.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Is “Lock him up!” part of Cummings’ strategy?
Locking Boris away might make Dom's task easier, even if prison is taking it too far.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Is “Lock him up!” part of Cummings’ strategy?
As a last resort, 'we will then have Leaver marches with chants of 'free, free Boris Johnson".
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
the problem with the maths is you cancelled out (a-b). Numerically (a-b) is zero. You can't cancel zero.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
Can somebody point out what the penalty in law would be for Boris ignoring the stop no deal bill? Is that set out in the legislation?
IMO it's the one thing that would make a majority of MPs accept Corbyn's caretaker offer. A PM who openly refuses to obey the law will be seen even by a number of Tories as worse than a brief period of constrained left-wingery.
Corbyn as Neville Chamberlain for 5 minutes (before the LDs VONC him too) to extend and betray Brexit and Labour Leave voters is I agree the most likely scenario now
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Boris could be Toad from Wind in the Willows who if you recall made a spectacular return from jail
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
Think he'd be subject to a recall petition for starters?
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Vicky Pollard???
A frankly sexist comment
Jo Swinson has a first from the LSE, She has more ministerial experience than several on the Tory or Labour front benches and she is widely regarded as a great example of a working Mum. Oh and has also won multiple awards as a Parliamentarian.
She is also surrounded by some great advisers, including incidentally Ed Davey, and leads a party that is undergoing a huge increase in membership and support. She is a serious political leader- and there are none of those in the Cabinet (and not many in the shadow cabinet) right now.
So while you might *want* to believe this, the reality is that Swinson is set to be a very significant figure both during the General election campaign and in the next Parliament.
LOL, dream on she is just another Tory Donkey
Cicero lives in Tallinn and repeatedly posts on Welsh & Scottish affairs.
Wales and Scotland are faraway places from the Baltic. He knows nothing about them.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
It does not matter, Boris would be the spiritual leader of Leavers and Tories from jail even if say Raab took over as temporary Tory leader on his behalf during the election campaign
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
BoZo resigns, Corbyn takes over, tables WA4 and we leave on Oct 31st
Jezza is a Brexit hero and BoZo is a footnote
lol, but no, I think more like
BoZo resigns or they VONC him, Corbyn takes over (or Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart or whoever, with Corbyn having some kind of "be responsible for something important and ostentatiously don't break it" position), rejig the PD to be more Norway-ish, pass that with the existing WA it subject to a referendum.
Referendum in January, out or revoke by Jan 31st. Election after that or not, see how it goes.
I like it. I think it works if Johnson decides to break the law, or resigns.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Vicky Pollard???
A frankly sexist comment
Jo Swinson has a first from the LSE, She has more ministerial experience than several on the Tory or Labour front benches and she is widely regarded as a great example of a working Mum. Oh and has also won multiple awards as a Parliamentarian.
She is also surrounded by some great advisers, including incidentally Ed Davey, and leads a party that is undergoing a huge increase in membership and support. She is a serious political leader- and there are none of those in the Cabinet (and not many in the shadow cabinet) right now.
So while you might *want* to believe this, the reality is that Swinson is set to be a very significant figure both during the General election campaign and in the next Parliament.
LOL, dream on she is just another Tory Donkey
Did that Flanner chap ever get back to you about a gentleman's bet on LD gains in Scotland? Complete deefy slung to my generous offer.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
Of course it is bollox, but your reason is not correct. Each line of maths is correct, but in one of the lines of maths I did something, that although normally is ok, in this instant isn't for a very particular reason. I'm deliberately being vague and it is very trivial but an easy mistake to make.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
It does not matter, Boris would be the spiritual leader of Leavers and Tories from jail even if say Raab took over as temporary Tory leader on his behalf during the election campaign
And for those of you convinced of the Cummings strategy to sweep the Labour heartlands ... Deja Vu.
"Theresa May laid bare the Conservatives’ ambitions to capture some of Labour’s most historic seats in England in a speech on Thursday night, telling voters in Leeds to put aside their traditional allegiances and vote “in the national interest”.
In a sign of the Conservatives’ bullishness about their chances in Labour’s northern heartlands, May told voters in Harehills that it was the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the ballot, not the traditional party."
Except Cummings did actually win those areas in the EU referendum and Boris is a Leaver while May was a Remainer.
Cummings and Boris are forcing clear blue water with Corbyn on Brexit while easing off on austerity and pushing tax cuts, May's campaign saw her largely agree with Corbyn on Brexit while pushing more austerity and the dementia tax
That strategy is dependent on Brexit being the only issue. It isn't, and the Bored of Brexit mob will vote on other issues, as they did in 2017. The BXP vote is not interchangeable with the Tory vote and never will be. Indeed a formal pact may well damage both parties more than they gain, something my party also should consider.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
Think he'd be subject to a recall petition for starters?
The point surely is not what the legal position is, but what the effect on public opinion is.
I don't really know, ... but it seems a really high risk strategy for Remainers.
What about Nicolas Soames for PM with or without ginger up his arse? If post Brexit we become the theme parrk in the atlantic ocean many predict he'd be perfect.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
But you can have your cake and eat it apparently
Hmm, though you really only have it until you eat it
BoZo resigns, Corbyn takes over, tables WA4 and we leave on Oct 31st
Jezza is a Brexit hero and BoZo is a footnote
lol, but no, I think more like
BoZo resigns or they VONC him, Corbyn takes over (or Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart or whoever, with Corbyn having some kind of "be responsible for something important and ostentatiously don't break it" position), rejig the PD to be more Norway-ish, pass that with the existing WA it subject to a referendum.
Referendum in January, out or revoke by Jan 31st. Election after that or not, see how it goes.
I don't think it's possible to hold a referendum at such short notice but we need it just to get this mess out of the way.
That is an implausable time scale. If Corbyn or ANO took over mid October it would take all of the time under the extension to obtain a formal ageement with the EU, then the HOC needs legislation enabling the referendum, then the wording needs to be agreed, then the campaign.
Late Spring, early Summer is a minimum for the actual vote and would a cobbled together HOC hold together and what domestic policy agenda could be agreed
The HOC is bankrupt, Boris is hopeless, and we need an election
Boris is correct wanting it on the 15th October, the rest are just playing politics because labour and lots of independents fear for their seats
Interesting header as ever Mr Herdson, but a gentle reminder that if the next polls follow the most recent Survation one of a declining Tory lead things might not be developing in Johnson’s favour....
But that poll has Swinon's LibDems taking a tumble. If that trend continues, we might yet head towards a repeat of the Tory/Labour clash of 2017....
I did try to warn them.
Ed Davey would be wiping the floor with The Clown.
This is no time for a shouty Vicky Pollard.
The sole time I have seen Jo Swinson was in clips from the HoC debate last week, and I thought she was pretty good.
Just a guess, but I suspect she'll improve over time, and that she'll do OK. Not super duper amazing, but OK.
Vicky Pollard???
A frankly sexist comment
Jo Swinson has a first from the LSE, She has more ministerial experience than several on the Tory or Labour front benches and she is widely regarded as a great example of a working Mum. Oh and has also won multiple awards as a Parliamentarian.
She is also surrounded by some great advisers, including incidentally Ed Davey, and leads a party that is undergoing a huge increase in membership and support. She is a serious political leader- and there are none of those in the Cabinet (and not many in the shadow cabinet) right now.
So while you might *want* to believe this, the reality is that Swinson is set to be a very significant figure both during the General election campaign and in the next Parliament.
LOL, dream on she is just another Tory Donkey
Did that Flanner chap ever get back to you about a gentleman's bet on LD gains in Scotland? Complete deefy slung to my generous offer.
He slunk off, never seen him posting again. I do have a bet with Cicero though, he/she was happy to back their words.
On tactical voting, I think it will fail in anything resembling a 3-cornered marginal but will work big time in Southern Tory seats where the LibDems are the obvious alternative, plus Labour seats with an incumbent MP. I know a number of visceral Labour and LibDem people in seats like that who are prepared to vote tactically through gritted teeth. On current polling (which is far from reliable, but it's all we've got), I can see LibDems gaining 25 seats and Labour virtually standing still, with a couple of losses in Leave seats and a couple of gains in confusing places (like Broxtowe).
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
They sound like at least a 20-1 shot.
Despite your complete conviction in the VANISHINGLY NARROW chance of a Conservative majority I will give you the opportunity of putting your money where your mouth is.
Happy to have anything up to £10k on a Tory majority at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
Of course it is bollox, but your reason is not correct. Each line of maths is correct, but in one of the lines of maths I did something, that although normally is ok, in this instant isn't for a very particular reason. I'm deliberately being vague and it is very trivial but an easy mistake to make.
And for those of you convinced of the Cummings strategy to sweep the Labour heartlands ... Deja Vu.
"Theresa May laid bare the Conservatives’ ambitions to capture some of Labour’s most historic seats in England in a speech on Thursday night, telling voters in Leeds to put aside their traditional allegiances and vote “in the national interest”.
In a sign of the Conservatives’ bullishness about their chances in Labour’s northern heartlands, May told voters in Harehills that it was the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the ballot, not the traditional party."
Except Cummings did actually win those areas in the EU referendum and Boris is a Leaver while May was a Remainer.
Cummings and Boris are forcing clear blue water with Corbyn on Brexit while easing off on austerity and pushing tax cuts, May's campaign saw her largely agree with Corbyn on Brexit while pushing more austerity and the dementia tax
That strategy is dependent on Brexit being the only issue. It isn't, and the Bored of Brexit mob will vote on other issues, as they did in 2017. The BXP vote is not interchangeable with the Tory vote and never will be. Indeed a formal pact may well damage both parties more than they gain, something my party also should consider.
Wrong.
Until Brexit is delivered Brexit IS the main issue.
2017 was fought with both May and Corbyn promising to deliver Brexit so other issues came to the fore neither have done so Brexit dominates after May extended and most Brexit Party voters voted Tory in 2017. Boris will fight as the leader to deliver Brexit come what may.
Plus on other issues there will be no dementia tax gaffes from Boris anyway
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Better to have Boris in jail refusing to extend with a big Tory poll lead, than to have him stay in Number 10 and agree to extend with the Tory vote collapsing to the Brexit Party and Corbyn able to come through the middle in my view (albeit with a small chance of PM Farage too in the latter case)
Usual question - are you sure you are totally at one with Johnson on this? I’m not convinced he’s totally au fait with the jail idea...
Actually would he be able to stand if in jail following conviction. He wouldn’t be allowed to vote so may not be on electoral register.
Bobbie Sands was elected an MP
Was he convicted or just interned
The Irish MPs elected in 1918 included 33 who were in prison at the time following the Easter Rising.
...the week from hell. Everything is unravelling...clueless and powerless...Viscerally I expect we're going to see him leaching support.
...absolutely risible...They are ripping themselves apart...fury in the corridors...nutcases...
....... I suggest the chances of an outright Conservative win are vanishingly narrow.
Wow.
rity at 5-1...which is incredibly skinny odds going by your post.
Money to be held by trusted 3rd party.
The Tories should be ten thousand to one.
We right now have a party led by a pair of inept posh boys - one in Parliament and one appointed because of being bezzy mates - running a third rate cabal of hopelessly incompetent members with an ideology seemingly determined to take us back to the 1950s, noted for their institutionalised racism, incapable of forming a coherent sentence, ruthlessly kicking all of their opponents out, rumoured to have links to Russia, constitutionally incapable of telling the truth, and putting forward a pack of populist lies based on their own drunken prejudices and outmoded principles in a blatant attempt to bribe the electorate into voting for them.
And because Labour are in this state, somehow the Tories sitll lead the polls.
I hope you don't teach your students about probability.
I was once asked if I could teach A-level maths. I got my whiteboard pen out and proved 2+2 can equal 5 in the right circumstances.
Funnily enough, nobody's asked me since.
But on a serious point, no government in this state should have even a faint chance of re-election. Labour members, I hope you're happy with how electing a geriatric populist nutter with the integrity of Horatio Bottomley has turned out.
Just for a bit of fun:
a = b aa = ab aa-bb = ab - bb (a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b) a+b = b 2b = b 2 = 1
Is that what you did?
pure and utter bollox. If you have two apples and another two apples , you can never get 2 apples to equal one apple unless you eat one of them.
Of course it is bollox, but your reason is not correct. Each line of maths is correct, but in one of the lines of maths I did something, that although normally is ok, in this instant isn't for a very particular reason. I'm deliberately being vague and it is very trivial but an easy mistake to make.
Malcolm I think ydoethur may suggest the correct remark to the student in red ink is '2/10, needs to try harder' and not 'utter bollox'. I don't think I ever got that comment on my homework and I definitely submitted stuff that could have been described as such.
BoZo resigns, Corbyn takes over, tables WA4 and we leave on Oct 31st
Jezza is a Brexit hero and BoZo is a footnote
lol, but no, I think more like
BoZo resigns or they VONC him, Corbyn takes over (or Ken Clarke or Rory Stewart or whoever, with Corbyn having some kind of "be responsible for something important and ostentatiously don't break it" position), rejig the PD to be more Norway-ish, pass that with the existing WA it subject to a referendum.
Referendum in January, out or revoke by Jan 31st. Election after that or not, see how it goes.
I don't think it's possible to hold a referendum at such short notice but we need it just to get this mess out of the way.
That is an implausable time scale. If Corbyn or ANO took over mid October it would take all of the time under the extension to obtain a formal ageement with the EU, then the HOC needs legislation enabling the referendum, then the wording needs to be agreed, then the campaign.
Late Spring, early Summer is a minimum for the actual vote and would a cobbled together HOC hold together and what domestic policy agenda could be agreed
The HOC is bankrupt, Boris is hopeless, and we need an election
Boris is correct wanting it on the 15th October, the rest are just playing politics because labour and lots of independents fear for their seats
G, correct they should be having it as soon as possible. The cabal of cowardy custards after whining for ever about wanting an election should be getting on with it. SNP especially should be getting pelters.
Comments
Salmond came close but did lose the referendum only just, but given his 2007 and 2011 wins could not in any sense ever be seen as a loser.
Sturgeon won her election is still in power and I cannot see where she lost anything.
Wilson , was many moons ago and hardly an SNP party then, bit like saying now that the Greens had lost the election
Swinney was only local and did not do great but hardly lost anything
Robertson lost his seat
Some real petty stuff on here re Scotland, but hey as everything is rosy in England you have to have something to talk about.
Boris inherited a shit storm. Labour's is entirely of its own making.
South of the border, obviously she is person non grata with die-hard Leavers, but she plays very well to Remainers, women, youngsters and those wanting a more cross party approach to politics. She also wins over Remainer Tories put off by Corbynite Labour.
She will be fine, and in a campaign will look like the fresh face.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1170240267968028677
Rectal cleansing with ginger...
I’ll give you Tories something: you are predictable.
As for the EVEL issue, that did seem to risk Scottish MPs becoming second class citizens in the HoC but so far at least it has not worked out that way, possibly because both the last 2 administrations have had a remarkably light legislative agenda. A government that actually paid some attention to, well, governing might be different.
I agree that either way, whether Boris goes in government or in opposition Dominic Raab is the likely next Tory leader, holding one of the biggest government posts as Foreign Secretary now and the likeliest candidate to be able to win both Tory MPs and Tory members
Incoming!
https://www.ft.com/content/b6571af0-d003-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true&segmentId=dd5c99e9-30be-ddd0-c634-ff3a0c2b738f
Was there a failure by successive governments to keep voters onside on Europe, particularly when it came to consequences of Treaties of Nice, Lisbon, Maastricht.
I think you misunderstood my post. I am not saying that the chances of the Tories winning an election are one in ten thousand. Clearly they're 50/50 or better.
I am saying that given the appalling mess they are in they SHOULD have only one chance in ten thousand. That they have a better chance than that is a truly shocking indictment of Labour.
Plus remember Survation was the only pollster to underestimate the Tories lead in the 2017 general election and overestimated the Labour voteshare in the European Parliament elections
“government by a Scot is just not conceivable in the current constitutional context”
In the 2005 diary piece in The Spectator, Mr Johnson continued: “Not only is Scotland full of rotten boroughs, where Labour MPs are returned by relatively tiny electorates but, as I never tire of saying, we English MPs can be overruled by Scottish MPs on very controversial questions, affecting our constituents, when we have no corresponding say over those questions in Scotland, and those Scottish MPs themselves have no say over those questions, so that John Reid, Scottish health secretary for the so-called UK, has no say over health questions in so far as they affect his own constituents.
Some say this is just inside-beltway stuff. They are wrong. It makes English audiences roar with anger, and it explains why Gordon Brown makes so many speeches about ‘Britishness’ and ‘British values’.
“He’s not really interested in British values. He’s worried about his personal political disability as a Scottish MP, and so he should be.”
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-scots-should-not-become-prime-minister-1-4948629
Children who play with fire get burnt.
Everyone agrees that the current Parliament is not fit for purpose. The only option is to seek one that is. It might not happen, but if we don’t have an election, and one as soon as possible before the clever clogs in parliament come up with any more cunning wheezes, we will never know.
If that leads to a Johnson majority and him choosing to continue to pursue no deal (i’m not sure he would with a majority - he’d prefer to serve 5 years and the option of being forced out by a VoNC would have been removed. Also wouldn’t have to listen to the DUP who could have been weakened by a GE anyway) then so be it. At least it would be solely his responsibility and wouldn’t be able to claim that the opposition/parliament were thwarting a deal.
At least the poor creature didn't faint.
There are only a handful of Unionists around here who have a good grasp of politics north of the border, and no, I’m not going to assist opponents of Scottish self-government by naming them
Still, birthday duties to attend to. Laters.
The Prime Minister said he “will not” carry out Parliament’s instructions to seek an Article 50 extension if he fails to agree a new deal, adding he was only bound “in theory” by a law passed on Friday.
Mr Johnson also ruled out the option of resigning to avoid asking for an extension, saying he would be staying in office to deliver Brexit and defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/boris-johnson-set-defy-law-rather-ask-brexit-delay/
"Theresa May laid bare the Conservatives’ ambitions to capture some of Labour’s most historic seats in England in a speech on Thursday night, telling voters in Leeds to put aside their traditional allegiances and vote “in the national interest”.
In a sign of the Conservatives’ bullishness about their chances in Labour’s northern heartlands, May told voters in Harehills that it was the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on the ballot, not the traditional party."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/theresa-may-to-lay-bare-ambition-to-capture-labour-heartlands
I am not hugely sure it is sensible ...
A frankly sexist comment
Jo Swinson has a first from the LSE, She has more ministerial experience than several on the Tory or Labour front benches and she is widely regarded as a great example of a working Mum. Oh and has also won multiple awards as a Parliamentarian.
She is also surrounded by some great advisers, including incidentally Ed Davey, and leads a party that is undergoing a huge increase in membership and support. She is a serious political leader- and there are none of those in the Cabinet (and not many in the shadow cabinet) right now.
So while you might *want* to believe this, the reality is that Swinson is set to be a very significant figure both during the General election campaign and in the next Parliament.
Cummings and Boris are forcing clear blue water with Corbyn on Brexit while easing off on austerity and pushing tax cuts, May's campaign saw her largely agree with Corbyn on Brexit while pushing more austerity and the dementia tax
Conversely, though, the market is underestimating the Labour odds in the current situation where none of us really have much clue what will happen next week, let alone two months hence. 14 is a bonkers price for Labour majority, and 3.75 is too long for most seats. So backing both the Tory front-runners as next PM and a Labour win look reasonable bets.
More likely though Boris will resign as PM and become Leader of the Opposition rather than extend than try to stay put and risk jail
a = b
aa = ab
aa-bb = ab - bb
(a-b)(a+b) = b(a-b)
a+b = b
2b = b
2 = 1
Is that what you did?
Could we get Trump in the same sinking boat?
Boris would be the Nelson Mandela of Brexiteers
Wales and Scotland are faraway places from the Baltic. He knows nothing about them.
I don't really know, ... but it seems a really high risk strategy for Remainers.
Late Spring, early Summer is a minimum for the actual vote and would a cobbled together HOC hold together and what domestic policy agenda could be agreed
The HOC is bankrupt, Boris is hopeless, and we need an election
Boris is correct wanting it on the 15th October, the rest are just playing politics because labour and lots of independents fear for their seats
Until Brexit is delivered Brexit IS the main issue.
2017 was fought with both May and Corbyn promising to deliver Brexit so other issues came to the fore neither have done so Brexit dominates after May extended and most Brexit Party voters voted Tory in 2017. Boris will fight as the leader to deliver Brexit come what may.
Plus on other issues there will be no dementia tax gaffes from Boris anyway