politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson might just be a worthy successor to the UK Prime

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson might just be a worthy successor to the UK Prime Minister from the second world war

Today is the eightieth anniversary of the Anglo-French declaration of war on Germany. The Conservative Prime Minister had championed and overseen a ruinous foreign policy that had brought the United Kingdom and most of Western Europe to disaster, and things got a lot worse. Conservative MPs who criticised this policy were denounced in the media and ostracised. Sound familiar? But enough about Brexit, even Boris Johnson does love a good Brexit is like WWII analogy.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ... again!

peter_from_putney

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

If the Labour hierarchy really is being urged by former leader Tony Blair and others against "falling into the trap" of agreeing to a GE next month and possibly for some time thereafter until the threat of a no-deal brexit has finally been put to bed, then perhaps there is real value in Betfair Exchange's odds of 6.6, equivalent to 5.3/1 net in old money, against a General Election taking place in 2020, as opposed to what is left of 2019.
These odds compare very favourably with those of 3/1 or 7/2 being the best currently on offer from the conventional bookies.

DecrepitJohnL

OT just as TSE gives the pb historians something to chew on, the archaeologists want to move the Civil War.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-49551833

Scott_P

Democracy is about persuasion rather than obliteration and there are rules underpinning political conflict that don’t apply in military combat. The prime minister seems to have forgotten that, far from being the nation’s commander-in-chief, he is only “first among equals” in the cabinet and depends for his power on the House of Commons. The scorched-earth approach being pursued by No 10 will make it almost impossible to unite the Tory party, let alone the country, when the skirmishes are over.

Mr Johnson has adopted the Donald Trump tactic of goading his opponents in an attempt to energise his supporters but he has overplayed his hand.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnsons-luck-might-be-about-to-run-out-xwg9plxv3

peter_from_putney

I understand that Boris & Carrie's newly adopted stray pup has been named 'Philip'. There's obviously some sort of private joke involved there. I wonder if we'll be told, subject to it passing Mr Cumming's censorship restrictions of course.

peter_from_putney

Scott_P said:

Democracy is about persuasion rather than obliteration and there are rules underpinning political conflict that don’t apply in military combat. The prime minister seems to have forgotten that, far from being the nation’s commander-in-chief, he is only “first among equals” in the cabinet and depends for his power on the House of Commons. The scorched-earth approach being pursued by No 10 will make it almost impossible to unite the Tory party, let alone the country, when the skirmishes are over.

Mr Johnson has adopted the Donald Trump tactic of goading his opponents in an attempt to energise his supporters but he has overplayed his hand.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnsons-luck-might-be-about-to-run-out-xwg9plxv3

I think I'm right in believing that Rachel Sylvester, the author of this piece in The Tmes and spouse of Guardian journalist Patrick Wintour was never exactly Boris' biggest fan.

DecrepitJohnL

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

DecrepitJohnL

TSE's PS has another metaphor. Stanley Baldwin tried to have Churchill deselected.

Toms

I think a cartoon showing John Bull with his head up his fundament watched by his appalled bulldog would cover it.

peter_from_putney

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

If the Labour hierarchy really is being urged by former leader Tony Blair and others against "falling into the trap" of agreeing to a GE next month and possibly for some time thereafter until the threat of a no-deal brexit has finally been put to bed, then perhaps there is real value in Betfair Exchange's odds of 6.6, equivalent to 5.3/1 net in old money, against a General Election taking place in 2020, as opposed to what is left of 2019.
These odds compare very favourably with those of 3/1 or 7/2 being the best currently on offer from the conventional bookies.

I've just checked and in fact Betfair's odds for small stakes (£10) are 7, aka 5.7/1 net in old money ... tasty or what?

Nigelb

Nice thread header, TSE, but perhaps not one to persuade leavers by force of argument.

My guess is that it might be the little things that destroy the Brexit project, in the same way it was relatively trivial matters that for many years wound up eurosceptics...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49558563

DecrepitJohnL

peter_from_putney said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

If the Labour hierarchy really is being urged by former leader Tony Blair and others against "falling into the trap" of agreeing to a GE next month and possibly for some time thereafter until the threat of a no-deal brexit has finally been put to bed, then perhaps there is real value in Betfair Exchange's odds of 6.6, equivalent to 5.3/1 net in old money, against a General Election taking place in 2020, as opposed to what is left of 2019.
These odds compare very favourably with those of 3/1 or 7/2 being the best currently on offer from the conventional bookies.

I've just checked and in fact Betfair's odds for small stakes (£10) are 7, aka 5.7/1 net in old money ... tasty or what?

Remarkably, there seems to be an arb on 2020 between the two Betfair markets. ETA: too busy to check properly so be careful.

Byronic

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

edmundintokyo

I don't know much about history but I'm still going with Theresa May to the tune of Yakety Sax

edmundintokyo

Byronic said:

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

Boris made exactly the same mistake that TMay did: She boxed herself with her red lines for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts, and he boxed himself in with his do-or-die extension date for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts. It's not obvious that he wouldn't have made the same mistake she did with the red lines.

DecrepitJohnL

OT how thick are Telegraph readers assumed to be?

From a story about trains turning signals the wrong colour, we learn that:
Train signals are a traffic light system used on railways. They ensure trains are kept a safe distance apart and take factors such as stopping distances into account.

And:
season ticket prices will increase by 2.8 per cent next year, significantly increasing the cost of long-distance commuting. Yes, perhaps by around 2.8 per cent.

Jonathan

May was simply trying to unpick Cameron’s mess. The 2016 referendum was poorly defined. “Leave” is not an end state, it is a process. The end state was never clarified, which is why we are in the mess we’re in now. Ironically perhaps May delivered the literal result of the referendum, an eternal state of leaving the EU.

The referendum asked “shall we stay where we are or go for a walk”, we are still walking with no idea where we want to go.

Blame Cameron, not May.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. JohnL, the second paragraph reminds me of ITV News some years ago (I have mentioned this before but it remains fantastically daft).

Inflation had risen to 3%, a two-year high. In the next breath, the newsreader said prices were rising like never before.

No. Like two years ago.

Byronic

edmundintokyo said:

Byronic said:

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

Boris made exactly the same mistake that TMay did: She boxed herself with her red lines for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts, and he boxed himself in with his do-or-die extension date for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts. It's not obvious that he wouldn't have made the same mistake she did with the red lines.

No. The difference is that Boris, as a true Brexiteer, would have been trusted to deliver Brexit - back in 2016 - without boxing himself in. T May, by contrast, felt she had to prove she wasn’t a weak Remainer, so she went for the hardest, stupidest Brexit possible.

Was Boris’ commitment to October 31 an error, or a necessity? I thought it was an error at the time. Now I’m not quite so sure.

swing_voter

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

edmundintokyo

Jonathan said:

May was simply trying to unpick Cameron’s mess. The 2016 referendum was poorly defined. “Leave” is not an end state, it is a process. The end state was never clarified, which is why we are in the mess we’re in now. Ironically perhaps May delivered the literal result of the referendum, an eternal state of leaving the EU.

The referendum asked “shall we stay where we are or go for a walk”, we are still walking with no idea where we want to go.

Blame Cameron, not May.

It's the old lady who swallowed the fly only substituting ever-shittier leaders.

Who will be the horse?

DecrepitJohnL

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT how thick are Telegraph readers assumed to be?

From a story about trains turning signals the wrong colour, we learn that:
Train signals are a traffic light system used on railways. They ensure trains are kept a safe distance apart and take factors such as stopping distances into account.

And:
season ticket prices will increase by 2.8 per cent next year, significantly increasing the cost of long-distance commuting. Yes, perhaps by around 2.8 per cent.

Forgot the link:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/02/newly-refurbished-trains-pulled-service-fears-accidentally-turning/

Foxy

Johnson is no Chamberlain, Chamberlain was a highly successful Chancellor of the Exchequer. Also, while trying to negotiate a Deal with Hitler, he did actually prepare for No Deal, via a vast programme of re -armament.

Boris is unparalleled in British history. We have never had a government of gimps before.

JosiasJessop

Byronic said:

edmundintokyo said:

Byronic said:

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

Boris made exactly the same mistake that TMay did: She boxed herself with her red lines for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts, and he boxed himself in with his do-or-die extension date for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts. It's not obvious that he wouldn't have made the same mistake she did with the red lines.

No. The difference is that Boris, as a true Brexiteer, would have been trusted to deliver Brexit - back in 2016 - without boxing himself in. (Snip)

How is Boris a true Brexiteer? He swung on the issue all over the place, before deciding shortly before the referendum that being anti-EU was better for his bid to be PM.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/16/secret-boris-johnson-column-favoured-uk-remaining-in-eu

Boris doesn't believe in Brexit. Boris believes in Boris, and will do whatever is needed to promote his self-interest. Currently that involves being pro-Brexit (with leanings towards the no-deal BXPers love).

That might change if he feels a change is better for him.

YBarddCwsc

swing_voter said:

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

The election is very unpredictable (& therefore winnable by Boris ... or Jeremy for that matter).

Just in general, it is a poor plan for governments without a working majority to struggle on to a later defeat, which is usually larger after a period of weak governance (cf Callaghan or Major). The Tories have no effective majority and the only way of getting one is through an election.

Boris is right to go for an election now. Maybe he will lose, but he will sure lose more catastrophically later by hanging on.

If he suffers a mild loss .. then, so what? A weak and unstable Coalition Government will try to tackle the conundrum of Brexit. I am not sure Lab+Lib+SNP will fare much better than the Tories.

The election will probably not settle anything, but leave the new Government struggling on. Perhaps the face at the top will change.

eristdoof

Jonathan said:

The referendum asked “shall we stay where we are or go for a walk”, we are still walking with no idea where we want to go.

"Shall we play a game?"
"Yes!"
"What game shall we play?"
"Let's play 'What game shall we play?'"

DavidL

Are they actually being expelled from the party or are they merely having the whip removed in the House of Commons where they are proving themselves less than reliable members of the party they were elected to support? I think it is the latter and precedent indicates that that is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs.

DecrepitJohnL

swing_voter said:

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

Tory donors are reaching for their cheque books.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/02/conservative-donors-plan-tip-millions-106-target-seats-win-snap/

YBarddCwsc

DavidL said:

Are they actually being expelled from the party or are they merely having the whip removed in the House of Commons where they are proving themselves less than reliable members of the party they were elected to support? I think it is the latter and precedent indicates that that is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs.

Yes that occurred to me. I think it is the latter.

After all, Boris needs an election & he should be grateful to Gauke & Co.

SouthamObserver

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

eristdoof

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. JohnL, the second paragraph reminds me of ITV News some years ago (I have mentioned this before but it remains fantastically daft).

Inflation had risen to 3%, a two-year high. In the next breath, the newsreader said prices were rising like never before.

No. Like two years ago.

I seldom* believe sentences that contain the words "never", "ever", "best", "most" or any other superlative.


*I wanted to write "never believe" but then realised the irony.

eek

When your chief cheerleader (the telegraph) has the headline “Despite what historians may tell you, Boris Johnson is not Hitler ” things aren’t going well.

OldKingCole

I suspect that TSE's suggestion that there will be no immediate crash, exactly as nothing much happened for a while after Sept 3rd 1939 as far as UK was concerned, is correct, but that during December things will get progressively more difficult. Something apparently silly will happen; perhaps a coach load of tourists going to a German Christmas Market refused entry to mainland Europe because the driver's papers are not in order perhaps, with a relative of an influential columnist on board. Something apparently small, then there'll be another, bigger.... perhaps a big farming bankruptcy as a result of lamb prices crashing. Then during January there'll be more and more events, not large in themselves but having a cumulative effect. Big increases in holiday prices, perhaps; the brochures come out in January.
People who thought; it's OK, it was Project Fear are going to start thinking; hang on, we can't do this, we can't get that.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

Johnson is no Chamberlain, Chamberlain was a highly successful Chancellor of the Exchequer. Also, while trying to negotiate a Deal with Hitler, he did actually prepare for No Deal, via a vast programme of re -armament.

Boris is unparalleled in British history. We have never had a government of gimps before.

I dunno, what about the 'Who? Who?' ministry of 1852 or the Bonar Law government of 1922-23? Or indeed the Balfour government from 1903-05?

I was most amused when I saw the headline and the photo. But I think my grandfather wouldn't have been impressed by the Second Battle of El Alamein comment. His view was that the mistakes were all on the British side, especially by Montgomery.

eek

DecrepitJohnL said:

swing_voter said:

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

Tory donors are reaching for their cheque books.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/02/conservative-donors-plan-tip-millions-106-target-seats-win-snap/

Are they? A paper reporting people claiming to be reaching for their cheque books isn’t the same as people actually writing cheques

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eek, could be worse. At least they aren't saying he *is* Hitler.

SouthamObserver

Jonathan said:

May was simply trying to unpick Cameron’s mess. The 2016 referendum was poorly defined. “Leave” is not an end state, it is a process. The end state was never clarified, which is why we are in the mess we’re in now. Ironically perhaps May delivered the literal result of the referendum, an eternal state of leaving the EU.

The referendum asked “shall we stay where we are or go for a walk”, we are still walking with no idea where we want to go.

Blame Cameron, not May.

Blame them both. Cameron’s entitlement and privilege, though, bred a casual disregard for consequences because he’d never experienced the consequences of failure. The same applies to Johnson, of course, hence his casual approach to No Deal. He sees it as an opportunity for himself, not as something the country will have to manage.

eristdoof

DavidL said:

Are they actually being expelled from the party or are they merely having the whip removed in the House of Commons where they are proving themselves less than reliable members of the party they were elected to support? I think it is the latter and precedent indicates that that is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs.

Of whom are you asking? If you mean the possible Tory MPs voting for a no-no-deal directive, then the Rumours/Leaks on Sunday were that they would not be able to fight the election as official Conservsative candidates. That souds more than "merely having the whip removed".

moonshine

Mr TSE always gives an interesting insight into the mind of the disgusted (ex) Tory Remainer.

To an extent I agree with his conclusion but not his route to getting there. I think Boris will get his majority, with the opposition vote share being split under quite unique circumstances. And he will then get Brexit done.

And I think it will turn out ok. But even if it’s a roaring success, Boris revitalises the economy, invests in health and education, reforms the housing market, cures the social crisis etc... it’s not clear to me there’s any circumstance that could bring such a hysterical viewpoint as Mr TSE’s back into the Tory fold while Boris is leader.

And without such a polarised electorate in 2023/4 as there is now, there’s no way Boris would get a majority if his vote ceiling is kept at 35% by natural Tory voters such as TSE. Which means very likely that Boris gets knifed before then. A one term Prime Minister (excluding this summer) but potentially one that will be judged better by historians then contemporaries.

DecrepitJohnL

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

ydoethur

moonshine said:

Mr TSE always gives an interesting insight into the mind of the disgusted (ex) Tory Remainer.

To an extent I agree with his conclusion but not his route to getting there. I think Boris will get his majority, with the opposition vote share being split under quite unique circumstances. And he will then get Brexit done.

And I think it will turn out ok. But even if it’s a roaring success, Boris revitalises the economy, invests in health and education, reforms the housing market, cures the social crisis etc... it’s not clear to me there’s any circumstance that could bring such a hysterical viewpoint as Mr TSE’s back into the Tory fold while Boris is leader.

And without such a polarised electorate in 2023/4 as there is now, there’s no way Boris would get a majority if his vote ceiling is kept at 35% by natural Tory voters such as TSE. Which means very likely that Boris gets knifed before then. A one term Prime Minister (excluding this summer) but potentially one that will be judged better by historians then contemporaries.

By 2023-24, the overwhelming likelihood is even a sane Tory government would lose an election anyway. Only one party has ever had more than thirteen years in government consecutively since 1832 and that didn't end terribly well for the party concerned.

Also, we have to assume Corbyn will be gone by then, even if Labour are still the official opposition. So the principal bulwark against a Tory collapse will ave been removed.

DavidL

eristdoof said:

DavidL said:

Are they actually being expelled from the party or are they merely having the whip removed in the House of Commons where they are proving themselves less than reliable members of the party they were elected to support? I think it is the latter and precedent indicates that that is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs.

Of whom are you asking? If you mean the possible Tory MPs voting for a no-no-deal directive, then the Rumours/Leaks on Sunday were that they would not be able to fight the election as official Conservsative candidates. That souds more than "merely having the whip removed".

I was querying what TSE says in his header. The inability to fight an election assumes that they still not have the whip at the election (which may, in fairness, be very close indeed).

Boris is charged with hypocrisy over this because he and other members of his cabinet rebelled so disastrously and so recently but to me he is showing how a leader must respond. It was the pathetic May who either couldn't or wouldn't use the levers of power available to her for fear of the consequences. What is the advantage of pretending that you have a majority in the Commons when you don't? It may allow you to hide out in Number 10 but it achieves nothing. Boris is making it clear that he is not going to tolerate that. He may fail, he may not get his election or he may lose it. But at least we have someone actually trying to govern.

OldKingCole

YBarddCwsc said:

swing_voter said:

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

The election is very unpredictable (& therefore winnable by Boris ... or Jeremy for that matter).

Just in general, it is a poor plan for governments without a working majority to struggle on to a later defeat, which is usually larger after a period of weak governance (cf Callaghan or Major). The Tories have no effective majority and the only way of getting one is through an election.

Boris is right to go for an election now. Maybe he will lose, but he will sure lose more catastrophically later by hanging on.

If he suffers a mild loss .. then, so what? A weak and unstable Coalition Government will try to tackle the conundrum of Brexit. I am not sure Lab+Lib+SNP will fare much better than the Tories.

The election will probably not settle anything, but leave the new Government struggling on. Perhaps the face at the top will change.

If Callaghan had been able to hang on until the autumn, as things were improving, he might have won, or at least been a lot closer.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

Because like Brown in 1994 he knew he would come a humiliating last and wreck his future chances of being party leader as well as his hopes of a cushy number in the cabinet.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/gilesyb/status/1168765466795528193?s=21

Luckyguy1983

moonshine said:

Mr TSE always gives an interesting insight into the mind of the disgusted (ex) Tory Remainer.

To an extent I agree with his conclusion but not his route to getting there. I think Boris will get his majority, with the opposition vote share being split under quite unique circumstances. And he will then get Brexit done.

And I think it will turn out ok. But even if it’s a roaring success, Boris revitalises the economy, invests in health and education, reforms the housing market, cures the social crisis etc... it’s not clear to me there’s any circumstance that could bring such a hysterical viewpoint as Mr TSE’s back into the Tory fold while Boris is leader.

And without such a polarised electorate in 2023/4 as there is now, there’s no way Boris would get a majority if his vote ceiling is kept at 35% by natural Tory voters such as TSE. Which means very likely that Boris gets knifed before then. A one term Prime Minister (excluding this summer) but potentially one that will be judged better by historians then contemporaries.

Do you think? I think there's every possibility that people like TSE will clamber back on board. There will always be reasons why people can claim it's actually Boris who has changed to their position.

logical_song

moonshine said:

Mr TSE always gives an interesting insight into the mind of the disgusted (ex) Tory Remainer.

To an extent I agree with his conclusion but not his route to getting there. I think Boris will get his majority, with the opposition vote share being split under quite unique circumstances. And he will then get Brexit done.

And I think it will turn out ok. But even if it’s a roaring success, Boris revitalises the economy, invests in health and education, reforms the housing market, cures the social crisis etc... it’s not clear to me there’s any circumstance that could bring such a hysterical viewpoint as Mr TSE’s back into the Tory fold while Boris is leader.

And without such a polarised electorate in 2023/4 as there is now, there’s no way Boris would get a majority if his vote ceiling is kept at 35% by natural Tory voters such as TSE. Which means very likely that Boris gets knifed before then. A one term Prime Minister (excluding this summer) but potentially one that will be judged better by historians then contemporaries.

Appropriate posting from one named 'Moonshine'.

DecrepitJohnL

eek said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

swing_voter said:

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

Tory donors are reaching for their cheque books.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/02/conservative-donors-plan-tip-millions-106-target-seats-win-snap/

Are they? A paper reporting people claiming to be reaching for their cheque books isn’t the same as people actually writing cheques

Political parties often go into the red to fight elections, so perhaps the difference is moot. That story suggests that money might be by-passing CCHQ and going directly to constituencies. And who runs and funds the Midlands Industrial Council anyway?

DavidL

So the full judicial review hearing is programmed to take place before Lord Doherty this morning. Its already looking a bit superseded isn't it? By the end of the day in which it is being determined whether or not Parliament might be prorogued for a few weeks it may have been dissolved altogether. Joanna Cherry was in Court last week for the interim interdict application but I doubt she will be there today. She will be in the Commons where she belongs and where political issues are rightly determined in this country.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/andrewmarr9/status/1168765332724572160?s=21

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Johnson is no Chamberlain, Chamberlain was a highly successful Chancellor of the Exchequer. Also, while trying to negotiate a Deal with Hitler, he did actually prepare for No Deal, via a vast programme of re -armament.

Boris is unparalleled in British history. We have never had a government of gimps before.

I dunno, what about the 'Who? Who?' ministry of 1852 or the Bonar Law government of 1922-23? Or indeed the Balfour government from 1903-05?

I was most amused when I saw the headline and the photo. But I think my grandfather wouldn't have been impressed by the Second Battle of El Alamein comment. His view was that the mistakes were all on the British side, especially by Montgomery.

I've edited my piece to clarify what I meant to say about El Alamein.

Tabman

Byronic said:

edmundintokyo said:

Byronic said:

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

Boris made exactly the same mistake that TMay did: She boxed herself with her red lines for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts, and he boxed himself in with his do-or-die extension date for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts. It's not obvious that he wouldn't have made the same mistake she did with the red lines.

No. The difference is that Boris, as a true Brexiteer, would have been trusted to deliver Brexit - back in 2016 - without boxing himself in. T May, by contrast, felt she had to prove she wasn’t a weak Remainer, so she went for the hardest, stupidest Brexit possible.

Was Boris’ commitment to October 31 an error, or a necessity? I thought it was an error at the time. Now I’m not quite so sure.

Boris is not a "true brexiteer". He chose brexit to further his own ambition

Big_G_NorthWales

peter_from_putney said:

I understand that Boris & Carrie's newly adopted stray pup has been named 'Philip'. There's obviously some sort of private joke involved there. I wonder if we'll be told, subject to it passing Mr Cumming's censorship restrictions of course.

I have to object at this information.

The puppy was rescued from abandoned by a South Wales puppy farmer and adopted by Carrie and given the name of 'Dilyn'

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

So the full judicial review hearing is programmed to take place before Lord Doherty this morning. Its already looking a bit superseded isn't it? By the end of the day in which it is being determined whether or not Parliament might be prorogued for a few weeks it may have been dissolved altogether. Joanna Cherry was in Court last week for the interim interdict application but I doubt she will be there today. She will be in the Commons where she belongs and where political issues are rightly determined in this country.

You mean, the Commons that Boris Johnson is shutting down at a crucial period?

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Johnson is no Chamberlain, Chamberlain was a highly successful Chancellor of the Exchequer. Also, while trying to negotiate a Deal with Hitler, he did actually prepare for No Deal, via a vast programme of re -armament.

Boris is unparalleled in British history. We have never had a government of gimps before.

I dunno, what about the 'Who? Who?' ministry of 1852 or the Bonar Law government of 1922-23? Or indeed the Balfour government from 1903-05?

I was most amused when I saw the headline and the photo. But I think my grandfather wouldn't have been impressed by the Second Battle of El Alamein comment. His view was that the mistakes were all on the British side, especially by Montgomery.

I've edited my piece to clarify what I meant to say about El Alamein.

Ah! That now makes much more sense and I am sure the ghost of my grandfather is now happy.

logical_song

On R4 'Today' programme someone speculated that Labour would abstain in a vote on a GE. So 'No Deal' ruled out first then no GE.
What would happen then?

TGOHF

Any updates on Jezza’s appetite for a GE or is he still hiding behind the sofa ?

Bob__Sykes

Simply cannot believe what happened yesterday evening. Boris surely realises his threat will fail and he has forced himself into an election he probably cannot win, and the near certainty of a Corbyn led rabble of a Government which will wreck the economy and probably the Union. And that Brexit is dead in the water.

The thought that Corbyn walks into No 10 next month leading an unstable leftie coalition fills me with horror.

SouthamObserver

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/andrewmarr9/status/1168765332724572160?s=21

If you are an MP opposed to a No Deal Brexit you’d have to be certifiably insane to vote to give Boris Johnson the ability to choose - and change - the date of an election.

DecrepitJohnL

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

Because like Brown in 1994 he knew he would come a humiliating last and wreck his future chances of being party leader as well as his hopes of a cushy number in the cabinet.

Brown may well have won. Remember Blair and Brown were not enemies or even rivals but close allies in the creation of New Labour. (Trivia: it was Brown who wrote Blair's famous Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.)

Slackbladder

logical_song said:

On R4 'Today' programme someone speculated that Labour would abstain in a vote on a GE. So 'No Deal' ruled out first then no GE.
What would happen then?

Given that the 'no-deal' vote is now a confidence vote, then it would kick into action the FTPA and start the clock on 14 days to get a new government. If not, there's a election anyway

numbertwelve

If Corbyn turns around and blocks an election now, the optics are going to be grim.

CarlottaVance

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

Tabman

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Pulling out early? I suppose it was a first.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

Because like Brown in 1994 he knew he would come a humiliating last and wreck his future chances of being party leader as well as his hopes of a cushy number in the cabinet.

Brown may well have won. Remember Blair and Brown were not enemies or even rivals but close allies in the creation of New Labour. (Trivia: it was Brown who wrote Blair's famous Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.)

Brown certainly believed he would have done, although that then begs the obvious question of why he withdrew.

I didn't think anyone else believed it until just now.

Pulpstar

Assume Corbyn dodges the election. He might try and do that. If Boris Johnson resigns as UK PM rather than sign the letter as decreed by the act that will probably pass this week then he is not technically in breach since he isn't PM.
I think Johnson will resign sooner than sign the letter, and either noone will sign it or Corbyn will.

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/andrewmarr9/status/1168765332724572160?s=21

If you are an MP opposed to a No Deal Brexit you’d have to be certifiably insane to vote to give Boris Johnson the ability to choose - and change - the date of an election.

So you are expecting Labour's leadership to vote for it then?

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/andrewmarr9/status/1168765332724572160?s=21

If there was any risk of the election being after 31st October or even so close to it that nothing can be done that would be a "tactical trick" which Labour should avoid. Provided that is dealt with (using the bill posted on here yesterday would suffice) any other avoidance of an election would be cowardice by this disgraceful Parliament. Corbyn is many unpleasant and disgraceful things but he is no coward.

SouthamObserver

Tabman said:

Byronic said:

edmundintokyo said:

Byronic said:

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

Boris made exactly the same mistake that TMay did: She boxed herself with her red lines for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts, and he boxed himself in with his do-or-die extension date for a short-term boost with the brexit enthusiasts. It's not obvious that he wouldn't have made the same mistake she did with the red lines.

No. The difference is that Boris, as a true Brexiteer, would have been trusted to deliver Brexit - back in 2016 - without boxing himself in. T May, by contrast, felt she had to prove she wasn’t a weak Remainer, so she went for the hardest, stupidest Brexit possible.

Was Boris’ commitment to October 31 an error, or a necessity? I thought it was an error at the time. Now I’m not quite so sure.

Boris is not a "true brexiteer". He chose brexit to further his own ambition

The 31st October do or die is Johnson’s opportunity. He has to deliver a No Deal on that day. And, of course, it is all about Johnson. Nothing else matters to him. That’s why the smarter members of the opposition (so not Jeremy Corbyn and Richard Burgon) have realised that handing Johnson the ability to decide when an election is called is not a wise move. Do not give your opponent what he wants you to give him.

swing_voter

Has Justine Greening just resigned the whip on R4?

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

I was really surprised her name was not on that list yesterday.

A_View_From_Cumbria5

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

Are they actually being expelled from the party or are they merely having the whip removed in the House of Commons where they are proving themselves less than reliable members of the party they were elected to support? I think it is the latter and precedent indicates that that is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs.

Yes that occurred to me. I think it is the latter.

After all, Boris needs an election & he should be grateful to Gauke & Co.

They will cease to be members of the party. They will not be permitted to refer to themselves as Conservatives or make use of material owned by the Conservative Party. They will have to return anything belonging to the Conservative Party in their care immediately or else make reasonable provision for its return.

Rory Stewart was effectively imposed on Penrith and Border Con Assn in 2010 to much local hostility. There were some very strong and hard working local candidates who were refused PAB approval. If the present chairman regrets Rory's passing he is in a very small minority.

numbertwelve

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

Because like Brown in 1994 he knew he would come a humiliating last and wreck his future chances of being party leader as well as his hopes of a cushy number in the cabinet.

Brown may well have won. Remember Blair and Brown were not enemies or even rivals but close allies in the creation of New Labour. (Trivia: it was Brown who wrote Blair's famous Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.)

Brown certainly believed he would have done, although that then begs the obvious question of why he withdrew.

I didn't think anyone else believed it until just now.

I think Brown got nervous when he saw a marginal poll that suggested Labour would lose their majority.

Big_G_NorthWales

Slackbladder said:

logical_song said:

On R4 'Today' programme someone speculated that Labour would abstain in a vote on a GE. So 'No Deal' ruled out first then no GE.
What would happen then?

Given that the 'no-deal' vote is now a confidence vote, then it would kick into action the FTPA and start the clock on 14 days to get a new government. If not, there's a election anyway

Not sure how proroguing the HOC helps

FF43

I can't think of any previous prime minister that resembles Boris Johnson because none were so feckless. Many were incompetent but all ,I think,felt an obligation to do what they thought was best for the country. Chamberlain certainly did.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Johnson is no Chamberlain, Chamberlain was a highly successful Chancellor of the Exchequer. Also, while trying to negotiate a Deal with Hitler, he did actually prepare for No Deal, via a vast programme of re -armament.

Boris is unparalleled in British history. We have never had a government of gimps before.

I dunno, what about the 'Who? Who?' ministry of 1852 or the Bonar Law government of 1922-23? Or indeed the Balfour government from 1903-05?

I was most amused when I saw the headline and the photo. But I think my grandfather wouldn't have been impressed by the Second Battle of El Alamein comment. His view was that the mistakes were all on the British side, especially by Montgomery.

I've edited my piece to clarify what I meant to say about El Alamein.

Ah! That now makes much more sense and I am sure the ghost of my grandfather is now happy.

God knows what my grandfather would think. He died there, killed by a British grenade thrown from behind him. One of those mistakes I suppose.

not_on_fire

L

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

I was really surprised her name was not on that list yesterday.

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

I was really surprised her name was not on that list yesterday.

A pity. She was at one time talked of as a future PM.

Also, likely puts Putney in play for the GE.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

So the full judicial review hearing is programmed to take place before Lord Doherty this morning. Its already looking a bit superseded isn't it? By the end of the day in which it is being determined whether or not Parliament might be prorogued for a few weeks it may have been dissolved altogether. Joanna Cherry was in Court last week for the interim interdict application but I doubt she will be there today. She will be in the Commons where she belongs and where political issues are rightly determined in this country.

You mean, the Commons that Boris Johnson is shutting down at a crucial period?

If Parliament doesn't stop him, which it can.

Stereotomy

Slackbladder said:

logical_song said:

On R4 'Today' programme someone speculated that Labour would abstain in a vote on a GE. So 'No Deal' ruled out first then no GE.
What would happen then?

Given that the 'no-deal' vote is now a confidence vote, then it would kick into action the FTPA and start the clock on 14 days to get a new government. If not, there's a election anyway

I don't think that's how it works

not_on_fire

Slackbladder said:

logical_song said:

On R4 'Today' programme someone speculated that Labour would abstain in a vote on a GE. So 'No Deal' ruled out first then no GE.
What would happen then?

Given that the 'no-deal' vote is now a confidence vote, then it would kick into action the FTPA and start the clock on 14 days to get a new government. If not, there's a election anyway

That’s not how the FTPA works - only a specific motion now counts as a confidence vote.

If Boris is going to go for a GE anyway perhaps the rebels can VONC him first, just for fun.

Big_G_NorthWales

swing_voter said:

Has Justine Greening just resigned the whip on R4?

She would lose her seat in a GE this year

Chris

Slackbladder said:

logical_song said:

On R4 'Today' programme someone speculated that Labour would abstain in a vote on a GE. So 'No Deal' ruled out first then no GE.
What would happen then?

Given that the 'no-deal' vote is now a confidence vote, then it would kick into action the FTPA and start the clock on 14 days to get a new government. If not, there's a election anyway

Sorry, but that's completely wrong.

To be a VONC for FTPA purposes, the motion needs to be:
“That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”

The vote will not be a VONC for FTPA purposes.

DecrepitJohnL

Bob__Sykes said:

Simply cannot believe what happened yesterday evening. Boris surely realises his threat will fail and he has forced himself into an election he probably cannot win, and the near certainty of a Corbyn led rabble of a Government which will wreck the economy and probably the Union. And that Brexit is dead in the water.

The thought that Corbyn walks into No 10 next month leading an unstable leftie coalition fills me with horror.

What do you fear from Corbyn that has not happened under Boris? That Corbyn might go on an unfunded spending spree? Expel opponents? Play fast and loose with Scotland and Northern Ireland? Pack the government with half a dozen old school chums? Even shut down parliament?

swing_voter

not_on_fire said:

L

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

I was really surprised her name was not on that list yesterday.

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

I was really surprised her name was not on that list yesterday.

A pity. She was at one time talked of as a future PM.

Also, likely puts Putney in play for the GE.

Is Amber Rudd looking for a seat?

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/andrewmarr9/status/1168765332724572160?s=21

If you are an MP opposed to a No Deal Brexit you’d have to be certifiably insane to vote to give Boris Johnson the ability to choose - and change - the date of an election.

I think laying a GE this year at 1.21 on Betfair is now serious value. I think this current Parliament would prefer trench warfare and a GE only when there's a window where No Deal isn't bearing down fast.

However, I'm already in as deep as I want to go so that'd be for others to take up.

ydoethur

numbertwelve said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

Because like Brown in 1994 he knew he would come a humiliating last and wreck his future chances of being party leader as well as his hopes of a cushy number in the cabinet.

Brown may well have won. Remember Blair and Brown were not enemies or even rivals but close allies in the creation of New Labour. (Trivia: it was Brown who wrote Blair's famous Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.)

Brown certainly believed he would have done, although that then begs the obvious question of why he withdrew.

I didn't think anyone else believed it until just now.

I think Brown got nervous when he saw a marginal poll that suggested Labour would lose their majority.

1994 not 2007!

CarlottaVance

swing_voter said:

Has Justine Greening just resigned the whip on R4?

No, she said she would not stand as a candidate at the next election.

TGOHF

Big_G_NorthWales said:

swing_voter said:

Has Justine Greening just resigned the whip on R4?

She would lose her seat in a GE this year

She will lose the whip tonight.

Another barnacle off the boat.

numbertwelve

I am having a dilemma about my vote at a GE.

I live in a Labour-Tory marginal. My instinctive vote is for the LDs, but I don’t believe they can “win here”. I want to avoid a Comrade Corbyn government as much as possible, but I find myself despairing at the thought of voting Tory. What do I do?

ydoethur

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

Johnson is no Chamberlain, Chamberlain was a highly successful Chancellor of the Exchequer. Also, while trying to negotiate a Deal with Hitler, he did actually prepare for No Deal, via a vast programme of re -armament.

Boris is unparalleled in British history. We have never had a government of gimps before.

I dunno, what about the 'Who? Who?' ministry of 1852 or the Bonar Law government of 1922-23? Or indeed the Balfour government from 1903-05?

I was most amused when I saw the headline and the photo. But I think my grandfather wouldn't have been impressed by the Second Battle of El Alamein comment. His view was that the mistakes were all on the British side, especially by Montgomery.

I've edited my piece to clarify what I meant to say about El Alamein.

Ah! That now makes much more sense and I am sure the ghost of my grandfather is now happy.

God knows what my grandfather would think. He died there, killed by a British grenade thrown from behind him. One of those mistakes I suppose.

Well, that presumably was an individual's tragic mistake.

My grandfather on the other hand was in 9th Armoured Brigade...

A_View_From_Cumbria5

DecrepitJohnL said:

eek said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

swing_voter said:

I would like to know what CCHQ feel about an election, after the kicking in May's Euros and a string of Parliamentary seats vulnerable to SNP/Lib Dem gains the coffers and goodwill will be under real strain and that is before BXP challenge the hold in midlands and shires to split the vote. The idea that the party wants an election is fanciful...

Tory donors are reaching for their cheque books.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/02/conservative-donors-plan-tip-millions-106-target-seats-win-snap/

Are they? A paper reporting people claiming to be reaching for their cheque books isn’t the same as people actually writing cheques

Political parties often go into the red to fight elections, so perhaps the difference is moot. That story suggests that money might be by-passing CCHQ and going directly to constituencies. And who runs and funds the Midlands Industrial Council anyway?

I think it is an open secret that donors have been reaching out to candidates they approve of and not going through CCA. There are few funding worries as far as I am aware. There has been an assumption for the last 18 months that a GE would be called when and not if the government fell. Con funding is as far as I know better than in 2017.

Big_G_NorthWales

I do wonder how that 'shouty crackpot' is allowed to continue to interupt the media interviews on College Green

OldKingCole

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

Are they actually being expelled from the party or are they merely having the whip removed in the House of Commons where they are proving themselves less than reliable members of the party they were elected to support? I think it is the latter and precedent indicates that that is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs.

Yes that occurred to me. I think it is the latter.

After all, Boris needs an election & he should be grateful to Gauke & Co.

They will cease to be members of the party. They will not be permitted to refer to themselves as Conservatives or make use of material owned by the Conservative Party. They will have to return anything belonging to the Conservative Party in their care immediately or else make reasonable provision for its return.

Rory Stewart was effectively imposed on Penrith and Border Con Assn in 2010 to much local hostility. There were some very strong and hard working local candidates who were refused PAB approval. If the present chairman regrets Rory's passing he is in a very small minority.

I don't think one can be stopped from calling oneself an 'Independent Conservative', can one? It's not calculated to deceive, like Literal Democrat. Perhaps one would have to use a small 'c' e.g. 'Independent with conservative views.'

DavidL

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Maybe in TSE's analogy, May was Chamberlain.

In May 1940, Chamberlain's government fell following the fiasco of the Norway campaign. Churchill became prime minister over Halifax. The principal architect of the Norway Campaign had been Winston Churchill.

May was Chamberlain; Hunt was Halifax, the Foreign Secretary favouring a negotiated settlement; Vote Leave (an objective with no proper strategy or tactics) was the Norway Campaign; Boris's often unreliable anti-EU reports as the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent were the Wilderness Years. Ergo, Boris is Churchill.

Yes, that is a much better analogy. At least inasmuch as TMay is definitely Chamberlain. Right down to the unfortunate grimaces and body language.

The more I think on it, the more disastrous she becomes, in hindsight. She fucked everything up. SHE is the source of most of our woes. From her stupid red lines, and onwards...

If Boris and Cummings had been in power from the summer of 2016, we would have peacefully left by now, probably into EFTA, or we would have long delayed A50, until we were properly ready.

Sigh.

Johnson, heroically, cacked his pants and pulled out of the leadership contest. Churchillian.

Was it ever explained why Boris pulled out so precipitately? He might still have won. Did he fear some new revelation that either never emerged or was a damp squib?

Because like Brown in 1994 he knew he would come a humiliating last and wreck his future chances of being party leader as well as his hopes of a cushy number in the cabinet.

Brown may well have won. Remember Blair and Brown were not enemies or even rivals but close allies in the creation of New Labour. (Trivia: it was Brown who wrote Blair's famous Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.)

Brown certainly believed he would have done, although that then begs the obvious question of why he withdrew.

I didn't think anyone else believed it until just now.

I think Brown got nervous when he saw a marginal poll that suggested Labour would lose their majority.

1994 not 2007!

The only issue by 1994 was how badly Major's government was going to fare when it ran out of road. The answer was very badly indeed but no doubt his advice now is welcome.

TGOHF

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I do wonder how that 'shouty crackpot' is allowed to continue to interupt the media interviews on College Green

You mean Owen Jones ?

not_on_fire

numbertwelve said:

I am having a dilemma about my vote at a GE.

I live in a Labour-Tory marginal. My instinctive vote is for the LDs, but I don’t believe they can “win here”. I want to avoid a Comrade Corbyn government as much as possible, but I find myself despairing at the thought of voting Tory. What do I do?

Support changing the voting system

Jonathan

Justine Greening is a huge loss, she was the symbol of a resurgent Tory party in 2005. For her to no longer feel at home in the party should be a massive wake up call.

AlastairMeeks

@ydoethur (and others), a historical question. I’m aware that royal assent was last used by Queen Anne and refusal was last considered by George V in relation to the Government of Ireland Act. Are there any 18th or 19th century examples of threats to withhold royal assent? I seem to recall there are but my memory is not obliging me on this occasion.

Big_G_NorthWales

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

Justine Greening standing down at next GE R4

I was really surprised her name was not on that list yesterday.

A pity. She was at one time talked of as a future PM.

Also, likely puts Putney in play for the GE.


Is Amber Rudd looking for a seat?

Not that one

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Simply cannot believe what happened yesterday evening. Boris surely realises his threat will fail and he has forced himself into an election he probably cannot win, and the near certainty of a Corbyn led rabble of a Government which will wreck the economy and probably the Union. And that Brexit is dead in the water.

The thought that Corbyn walks into No 10 next month leading an unstable leftie coalition fills me with horror.

What do you fear from Corbyn that has not happened under Boris? That Corbyn might go on an unfunded spending spree? Expel opponents? Play fast and loose with Scotland and Northern Ireland? Pack the government with half a dozen old school chums? Even shut down parliament?

Yes, all of those. That's the problem. Getting rid of Johnson to go for Corbyn instead is like getting rid of herpes to find you now have syphilis.