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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » November 14th 2013 Local By-Election Results

Seaton on Allerdale
Labour 464 (40%), United Kingdom Independence Party 426 (37%), Conservative 133 (11%), Green 108 (9%), Liberal Democrat 30 (3%)
Labour GAIN from Independent
Labour GAIN overall control of Allerdale with an overall majority of 2

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Pulpstar

Yes I checked - it is now 11/4 - Still value ?

MarkSenior

tim said:

On the off chance that there are any punters around rather than the Falkirk spammers I'm reposting this

This is a only a local election result for a town council but it may be significant in betting terms

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 7m
SANDWICH TOWN COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULT.
LABOUR (33.8%)
UKIP (27.3%)
TORY (25.2%)
LIBDEM (13.7%)

Tories drop from first to 3rd!

It's in Thanet South, which I'd make favourite for Farage to stand in.

5/1 PP

Conservatives did not actually fall from 3rd to 1st . All their councillors in Sandwich South were elected unopposed in 2011 . The ward was last contested in a by election in 2007 which the Conservatives won by around 30 votes . Labour had a councillor elected here in 2003 . Sandwich North is much more strongly Conservative as is Sandwich as a whole at district level

fitalass

David Cameron made the right decision to make this trip.

BBC News - Sri Lanka: Cameron urges leaders to 'bring country together'

"David Cameron has said his symbolic visit to the north of Sri Lanka has "drawn attention to the plight" of the Tamil minority in the country.

The Tamils' treatment at the end of the country's civil war dominated the run-up to the Commonwealth summit, which opened in the capital Colombo earlier.

The UK prime minister has defied calls for him to boycott the event in protest against alleged human rights abuses.

He urged the authorities to show "generosity" to all Sri Lankans.

Mr Cameron has insisted there should be a proper investigation into alleged Sri Lankan war crimes in the final months of the conflict which ended in 2009, saying a process of "truth-telling" was essential for reconciliation.

In a historic move, Mr Cameron travelled to the Tamil-dominated north of the country - the first international leader to do so since Sri Lankan independence in 1948."

TheScreamingEagles

New Old Thread

ThomasNashe

fitalass said:

David Cameron made the right decision to make this trip.

BBC News - Sri Lanka: Cameron urges leaders to 'bring country together'

"David Cameron has said his symbolic visit to the north of Sri Lanka has "drawn attention to the plight" of the Tamil minority in the country.

The Tamils' treatment at the end of the country's civil war dominated the run-up to the Commonwealth summit, which opened in the capital Colombo earlier.

The UK prime minister has defied calls for him to boycott the event in protest against alleged human rights abuses.

He urged the authorities to show "generosity" to all Sri Lankans.

Mr Cameron has insisted there should be a proper investigation into alleged Sri Lankan war crimes in the final months of the conflict which ended in 2009, saying a process of "truth-telling" was essential for reconciliation.

In a historic move, Mr Cameron travelled to the Tamil-dominated north of the country - the first international leader to do so since Sri Lankan independence in 1948."

I think on the whole, I agree. The publicity it's generated has been genuinely helpful. However, the real test is whether he and the other commonwealth leaders can place genuine pressure on Sri Lanka to end the atrocities which still appear to be being perpetrated on the Tamils.

NickPalmer

fitalass suggested on the last thread that UKIP's popularity was falling, together with Farage's, and that the increased Labour lead might reflect temporary doubts about economic recovery.

On the first, there doesn't seem clear evidence of a UKIP drop - e.g. the 13% in today's YG is pretty good. Farage has dropped with the general public as the novelty wears off but the UKIP vote still seems pretty solid to me.

On the second - as David L says, the lead is up from 5ish to 8ish (after a short period when it was 2ish). FWIW I think it's about narrative. Labour's themes - cost of living, energy price freeze, living wage, NHS - have dominated public discussion, with even opponents feeling they needed to talk about them. That makes it easier to see Labour as an interesting government, implementing/changing policy on these issues, and confers a dangerous air of irrelevance on the current government, which doesn't seem to be about anything in particular at the moment.

Bringing down the level of debt? Barely mentioned these days.
Reforming schools? Seems to have got a bit messy.
Reorganising the NHS. Urgh, change the subject.
Introducing Universal Benefit: um, maybe later.

Instead, we get a series of quarter-baked ideas: maybe something will be done on energy, or mobile phones, or control orders, or marriage tax allowance, but then again maybe not, it all has to be discussed, ask us again next year.

This isn't to say that nothing is being done, but a sense of narrative is missing, and that's crucial to any government as without it things gradually fall apart. The Tory strategy seems to be falling back on "Stop Labour!" which will IMO not prove sufficient.

SimonStClare

"Labour are cowards for racking up billions in debt, says Ken Livingstone

The former Mayor of London criticises Labour for spending billions to avoid tax and spending cuts in the 'boom years'"

Referring to Mr Miliband and Ed Balls, the Shadow chancellor’s, plans for the economy, he said: “I don’t believe that borrowing is your way to the future.”

I wonder if Ken now fancies his chances of running as an independent London mayor again?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10451851/Labour-are-cowards-for-racking-up-billions-in-debt-says-Ken-Livingstone.html