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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson is polling better amongst CON Remainers than Johnson while Farage has a big lead over Corbyn with LAB leavers
One of the really great thing about Opinium polls for the Observer is the way they present their data including crossheads that other pollsters don’t manage to produce.
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By resisting any collapse into Corbyn`s open embrace, she has shown the decent Conservatives that there is no risk in falling in with the Lib Dems. There is a safe alternative to the mad and desperate John-Conservatives.
What is missing is how the Labour remainers see Jo Swinson compared with Corbyn. I think she will be doing very well there too, despite Corbyn`s attempts to muddy the waters. Since nobody can believe a word of what Corbyn says, Labour remainers do well to settle for somebody more consistent.
Normal service will slowly resume over the next fortnight.
It is really tense even though the result is known.
A 2nd ref this autumn will either confirm and renew the 2016 vote or prove the big majority of voters actually comfortable in pooling some sovereignty and no more than 0.7 of GDP to be member of the world’s largest trading bloc with over 500 million consumers, representing 23% of global GDP. Removal of trade barriers and greater trade efficiency’s to 44% of all UK exports. Among other benefits. A GE with Boris getting a majority doesn’t confirm that, the majority will clearly come on back of split opposition votes.
But Boris owns every leave vote? Even those whose ideology understands brexit favours socialism rather than the business friendly conservatives?
And Boasting about brexit bozzy mopping up the brexit party voters by outflanking the brexit party, but at what cost? How many millions of remain conservatives saying to pollsters they will vote conservative actually vote tactically against a no deal brexit in autumn GE? None at all voting for other parties Because they are scared of Corbyn? Easy equation, certainty of Boris no deal breaking the economy and making households poorer versus the possibility of labour causing just as much damage to the economy with their Keynesian economics. As soon as starting gun fired this becomes the theme of the campaign as regards vote lending, not who is clearly better loved or less hated, but who or what is most feared. And in my mind it’s a no brainier, no deal brexit and it’s supporters will take a right hammering.
Only 39% are saying that they would still vote Labour now, but only 4% have so far switched directly to the Conservatives. The votes of the rest seem up for grabs, with 21% don't know and 24% who have switched to the Brexit Party. Amongst the same group, faced with a forced choice between Johnson and Corbyn for PM, 40% back Johnson against 27% for Corbyn. I think it reasonable to infer that all of those 27% are included in the 39% who would vote Labour now.
As almost none of those Labour Leave voters who have deserted the party would choose Corbyn over Johnson as PM, I think that it follows that virtually none of those voters can be expected to return to backing Corbyn's party at a general election.
Conclusion: Dire news for Labour. On top of their current support, the Conservatives have the potential to boost their vote by capturing a significant group of disaffected 2017 Labour Leave voters if:
1. The Brexit Party is subject to a squeeze, forcing a choice between Corbyn and Johnson. (i.e. While it is fairly obvious that Conservative defectors to the Brexit Party could return home, the prospect of Labour Leave defectors to the Brexit Party following them was less obvious before studying the Opinium tables.)
2. "Don't knows" in this group make up their minds, if they vote at all. (i.e. Contrary to the received wisdom that "don't knows" tend to return to their former party, the Opinium tables suggest that this group will behave otherwise.)
In the end it looks like Gove screwed us all over by sabotaging Boris last time. We instead pissed away three years with May. Boris may actually have been a better unifier had he won and would've probably governed more as he did London rather than his Cummings/ERG approach he's now locked in to.
I think the split vote shares in the polls are hiding the true picture. I would expect Labour to outperform and LDs to underperform on polling day as tactical anti no deal voting kicks in, and Labour are 2nd place in more seats than LDs (assuming a prebrexit election, post brexit much harder to figure out). Boris may be able to squeeze BXP a bit further but there will be a core vote there that he won't get on-board (would expect BXP to get around 7-8%). very risky for him to go for a prebrexit ge.
In 2015 the consensus when the election was called was that May was heading to a super majority. Ultimately the British people decided that was not a great idea and Labour was the obvious way to stop it. I suspect that much of their vote was always soft and now it has flaked away in exasperation.
In the long run a Corbyn led Labour party getting absolutely thumped would probably be good for the party. At the moment the legends of 2015 give the harder left more credibility than they deserve. If Labour are to move back to the centre ground and become a credible party of government again the current leadership needs humiliated.
2: The rise of the Lib Dems.
People didn't beleive the Gerry Adams hugging commie bits despite them being true as it seems a right-wing smear and he just seemed a nice old grandpa. The last few years have made the nastiness much more real.
There was no real alternative 2 years ago to the Tories. So if you were never going to support the Tories, Labour was the only alternative. No longer true.
1) Shows LD-curious voters that it's Lab territory defending against a Tory
2) Avoids talking about Corbyn too much
3) Makes the most of Labour's strategic ambiguity on Brexit, since MPs will tend to have taken positions that play well in their seat
Happy days for the Lib Dems.
This time Corbyn will need to be scrutinised and I don't think he'll be given the benefit of the doubt as last time.
If you look at the last, say, eight UK General Elections, then pattern is for the third/fourth party to benefit from increased coverage during the campaign. Now, this is by no means universal. But assuming that, because something happened last time, it will definitely happen again seems at best complacent.
It was relentless in regard to his past.
One could argue the manifesto was not scrutinised as in past elections.
I do agree he will not be given the benefit of the doubt this time.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-21st-august-2019/
They don't show figures for Laboure Remainers sepatately, but if you look at all Remainers:
10% of Remainer strongly approve of Corbyn, and 16% approve.
9% of Remainers strongly approve of Swinson and 25% approve.
She leads him 24-21 among Remainers as "best PM", though 27% of Remainers say "Neither" and 12% say dunno. 15% say Johnson.
However, among Labour voters he leads her by 54-9, whereas she leads him among LibDems by 62-5. So I think all the figures are showing is really that each of them is popular with most but not all of their own parties - there isn't a large chunk of voters apparently poised to switch. (Alarmingly, 6 and 8% of the two parties votes think Johnson is the best choice as PM, and 1% of LibDems would prefer Farage as PM.)
Every candidate in every constituency is going to be asked, repeatedly "Why should I vote for a racist party?"
Keeping Brexit out of the next election is looking considerably more challenging at the moment. It's not something that Corbyn wants to talk about, even now. He has found a sound bite of being opposed to no deal but that doesn't get you very far when you are still committed to leaving, just on terms that will never ever be available. Its a mess and there is going to be a lot of flak directed towards him not just from a remainer dominated media but the Lib Dems and the Greens hungry for his votes.
Therefore I agree with Mr T; Corbyn will be scrutinised and won't, given his shilly-shallying over both anti-semitism and Brexit, get the easy ride he had last time.
Boris is regularly caught out lying, which doesn't seem to be causing him any problems at the moment, but in an election campaign, may well.
I suppose the line that writes itself has already been posted?
It mainly seemed to be about May and the Tories, the LDs were also-rans by my memory.
Do you really believe the Labour Party is now institutionally racist, the evidence points to that? and that’s why they have dropped in the polls?
They dropped in polls because of of their brexit fudging, given the oxygen of a GE the racism and nasty party smears Will be rebutted and lost in the wider noise as the tribe closes ranks.
If it were the other way around, the party wasn’t racist but a candidate was, the candidate would be in trouble. That’s how GE work. So I ask you again, how many of the 247 Labour MPs are you claiming is racist? Because it’s the stance of that MP, on anti semitism and brexit their voters will be voting on,
Labour will not keep Brexit out of the next election. It will use loudspeakers to let people know it stood for a 2nd referendum with Remain as an option. This may not satisfy die-hard Remainers like me but will satisfy about 90% of Remainers who think they will win the 2nd Ref.
Ironically, it will also satisfy many Labour Leavers [ who are not die-hard; they have left anyway ], who do not eat and drink politics and who also believe Leave will win the 2nd referendum.
IIUC Swinson has already ruled out a *coalition* with Corbyn. I'm not sure what she'll say about supporting a Corbyn minority government.
It's a weird situation where much of the potential *Labour* voter pool also think Corbyn is bad. So maybe if she says she'll work with a Labour politician but not Jeremy Corbyn, and the polling doesn't show us anywhere near Lab Maj, that will actually boost the Labour share...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/world/protocol-pushes-trump-to-the-edge-of-g20-photo-1.3493260
The bottom line I am trying to get across here is how the GE is actually platform for an MP to take a noticeable stand the voters will like to hear.
If party’s policy puts a hospital in danger, or proposes a railroad through the village or promises an airport next door, whether the MP is out there for or against makes a difference, does it not? if anything stance against racism and brexit should bring even greater support to that MP than the party position, not less. In this way the GE becomes an opinion poll game changer from what is driving it at the moment where you hear from spokesman not the MP
So this guy is wrong ? Just asking.
Boris's first London Mayor victory was 2008
1. Opinion against Corbyn has hardened - he now has the worst ratings of any opposition leader, ever.
2. In Spring 2017, Corbyn was still a relatively new kid on the block, and views of him were not set in stone, as was proved by the recovery in his personal ratings. In Autumn 2019 he will be 4 years into his leadership, and the potential for people to change their (even more hostile) views of him is thus very much less.
3. In 2017, Labour neutralised Brexit as an issue amongst their Leave voters. They won't be able to do the same in 2019 to appeal to their former Leave voters.
Also, in 2017, Labour was the only tactical choice to avoid the Conservatives getting a majority, so Remain supporters voted tactically for Labour in spite of Corbyn. Now a vote for the LDs is credible. Remain voters facing less clear tactical choices will often choose a party whose leader they are ambivalent about over one whose leader they really dislike.
To me this gives further weight to the argument that if we get a Brexit election Labour should fight for the Remain vote and accept the potential loss of many of the above type voters. The alternative - to embrace the sort of Farage like tone which would appeal to them - would probably not work and at the same time would risk a mass defection of more enlightened Labour voters to the LDs. This could be terminal.
We are going to have to build socialism without the proles is what I'm saying. Or without these sort of proles.
* That’s racy not ...
That’s the kind of thing that explains why Yes is now ahead. Nobody is surprised anymore that London doesn’t give a shit.
I don't see Corbyn benefiting from tactical voting to anything like the extent he did in 2017. A combination of the anti-semitism and Brexit issues will push many 2017 Labour voters towards the Lib Dems
If Johnson manages to largely neutralise the BXP (Big "if" I know) then I think he will cruise home.
- Boris in The Daily Telegraph 21 July 2005.
Although big in Westminster politics these days, Boris is no longer new or fresh in politics, does have more baggage now
He complained about blue on blue in leadership election, but he was not really fought or tested like he will be if he makes it to the next General Election
But regarding you last point, you are relying on all as opposed to some Remain voters seeing it your way and disregarding the Remain Alliance (from which Labour will be absent). In 1983, you could similarly make a case that the only tactical choice to avoid a Conservative majority was to vote Labour in 9/10ths of seats.
- Boris in The Times, 18 February 2005.
Her ratings are mediocre, but BoZo’s are dire north of the border.
- Boris Johnson on the Barclays Cycle Hire launch, July 2010
And I think you're right about the not voting in this GE that we are all so excited about.
Hope you are right because my hopes of a Tory defeat rest upon exactly that.
But regarding what drives these 'types' to support Brexit - and to like Farage - my personal hometown exposure (which is still substantial) tells me it is one thing above all else - IMMIGRATION - and it tells me that without a shadow of a doubt.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-democrats.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Remember trump won not by being popular or likable, but his opponent being hated. Whoever gets the dem ticket, trump team will go all out to make that person a hated figure too. So I say ignore their polling and status in the betting, pick which one most looks made of Teflon. HY is absolutely right. Warren would be slaughtered in an election against Trump, her policy platform is full of holes, and Warren herself unlikable. She’s not nearly Teflon enough for what the Trump campaign will do to her.
HY is wrong, gaff prone Biden is too old and confused to be commander in chief, on these grounds he is easily dismantled.
Which must be where I get it from.
It's about putting together a coalition of voters that is broad enough to win.
I think Corbyn can do it in a pre Brexit election if Labour offer Ref2.
In a post Brexit election I give him little chance.