Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr O'Callaghan - who chairs the association, which represents pie producers - said: "We don't actually export to Thailand or Iceland. It is certainly available in Iceland the shop."
Let me guess, a bad boy told BJ this and ran away (not that he'll ever feel obliged to justify it, particularly since he's now refusing to be interviewed by C4 because they accused him of..er..lying).
At the weekend BJ was blathering on about all the current restrictions to UK exports to the US, including shower trays. I think the exciting opportunities of the international shower tray trade have got innovative jam knocked into a cocked hat.
The American food lobby hates GIs. It will want the UK to, at a minimum, have a far more flexible regime than the EU does. Of course, the Melton Mowbray pork pie is not the most significant UK EU GI, Cornish pasties and Stilton are probably a bigger deal - but the biggest one of all, by a country mile, is Scotch whisky.
Is that actually true? That the American food lobby hates GIs? Or are GIs something American negotiators can "reluctantly" concede because in most cases there are FDA rules against blue Smarties and Kinder Eggs or sheer distance keeping Americans safe.
The trouble with posting while binge-watching Life On Mars on BBC Iplayer before someone comes along and flogs it off to Disney, is that I missed the obvious point that Americans see the problem the other way round, that GIs are a protectionist measure against Jack Daniels and Californian wine that nonetheless fill our shelves. So again, I doubt they are hugely significant. It just means we have English Sparkling Wine and Champagne, as opposed to Champagne and French Champagne.
Had May still been Tory leader it may have been Feb or even October 1974, Boris though is far more charismatic than the Heath like May and has stopped leakage of the Tory vote to the Brexit Party, even Powell refused to endorse Heath in 1974 causing Tory seats in the Midlands to be lost.
The Conservative vote share is down 9.5 points on 2017 - Heath lost 8.5 in 1974 so the two are comparable. I do agree had May remained leader the Conservatives would have been looking at perhaps losing half their 2017 share.
There are so many imponderables in the next few weeks - I think Boris could survive through a No Deal Brexit without an election simply because his opponents are so divided. That said, it may get problematic if the impacts are as drastic as some suggest and I think those Conservatives fighting local elections in 2020 may not be too comfortable but with an election not due until 2022 there's time to sort things out.
The TV licence is a very regressive tax. Public service broadcasting should be funded from general taxation. How much should be classed as 'public service' is another debate.
The problem is that there are people on the left (no one on here) who would generally oppose a poll tax like the TV tax, but as it's hypothecated for the BBC, they turn a blind eye.
If the Tories lose 10 seats to the SNP and 10 to the LibDems, how many gains from Labour do they need to get a majority?
642 seats (excl SF + Speaker) Therefore 322 seats needed for Majority Con currently 311 seats Minus 20 seats leaves Con with 291 seats Therefore, they would need to gain 31 seats from Labour. None of those would come in Scotland. Maybe a couple in Wales(?) So they need to gain 30 English Labour seats. Where?? Kensington, then, er...
Without breaking a sweat, I think the Tories will take or retake the following under pretty much any circumstances:
Kensington Canterbury Stroud Newcastle under Lyme Gower Chester Lincoln Barrow. Crewe Derby North
And there could be a few more where Labour are vulnerable due to Lib Dem seepage - Battersea and Bristol Norh West spring to mind.
However, that doesn't come close to 30. And that presupposes no Tory losses to Labour, which may be a bold assumption.
Disagree . Six of the defending Labour MPs will enjoy first term incumbency.
Where's the first term incumbency for MPs who pledged to implement Brexit - then didn't?
Just another bunch of lying shysters.....
Neither here nor there - it was not the issue which really mattered to people.
Stopping May getting a monster majority mattered to people last time. Not an issue next time.
Maybe. Who knows? But speaking personally I swung round to supporting Labour when I noticed that their campaign was well organised, their manifesto was sensible and they seemed to be getting traction. In other words they won me over by putting in the work and looking more like winning. The thing that most put me off voting for them was the polls showing that they couldn't win.
< The 2017 GE had echos of Heath's 1974 "who governs Britain?" election by asking the electorate for a strong mandate without a broad well-argued policy platform.
Actually, the forthcoming GE is more likely to be a Feb-74 type contest. In 1970, the Conservatives got 46% of the vote (Heath got a higher share then Thatcher, Major or May) and between them Con-Lab got 89% of the vote (85% in 2017).
The two things about Feb 74 many forget are first that the Conservatives won more votes than Labour but fewer seats (1951 reversed) and that the Con-Lab share fell to 76% with the Liberals and SNP picking up a lot of votes but not many seats.
The latest YouGov shows Con-Lab at 54% - it has never been so low. For the first time the Conservatives face a substantial challenge on their flank from BP while Labour and the LDs are very close. The Con-LD swing on YouGov is 10.5% while the Lab-LD swing is 15.5%.
These are huge movements and make UNS USE-less. In Feb 74 the Liberal vote went up spectacularly but broadly and that meant a few wins and lot of strong second places. The vote may be more concentrated (in 2017 a lower vote share than 1970 brought 12 seats) in 2019. Where will the BP poll well and what will be the impact - what of Scotland and Wales where equally large vote swings are being registered in polls?
For all the faux optimism in the pro-Johnson press, nothing has changed. The EU constantly and rightly remind us the onus is on the UK to come up with solutions to the issues caused by us leaving the SM and possibly the CU. Only a quarter are in the No Deal bunker and more than a third want to Remain with another quarter either clinging to the TM deal or the nonsensical Labour position (these are the votes in play when it comes down to No Deal vs Remain).
Polls will be used not as scientific statements of objective fact but as propaganda - as we know, it's the question, not the answer, that drives most polls.
We need to be careful when looking back at party vote shares in 1970. Whilst the combined Tory/Labour vote share was almost 90% , such a figure was artificially high in that both parties received many second preference votes from Liberal - and other - voters in the hundreds of seats which the latter failed to contest.In 1970 the Liberals fought barely half the 630 seats then in existence, and as a result many voters were presented with just Tory and Labour candidates.Even in February 1974, the Liberals did not fight circa 100 seats - though did have a full slate of candidates in the October election later the same year.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr O'Callaghan - who chairs the association, which represents pie producers - said: "We don't actually export to Thailand or Iceland. It is certainly available in Iceland the shop."
Let me guess, a bad boy told BJ this and ran away (not that he'll ever feel obliged to justify it, particularly since he's now refusing to be interviewed by C4 because they accused him of..er..lying).
At the weekend BJ was blathering on about all the current restrictions to UK exports to the US, including shower trays. I think the exciting opportunities of the international shower tray trade have got innovative jam knocked into a cocked hat.
The American food lobby hates GIs. It will want the UK to, at a minimum, have a far more flexible regime than the EU does. Of course, the Melton Mowbray pork pie is not the most significant UK EU GI, Cornish pasties and Stilton are probably a bigger deal - but the biggest one of all, by a country mile, is Scotch whisky.
Is that actually true? That the American food lobby hates GIs? Or are GIs something American negotiators can "reluctantly" concede because in most cases there are FDA rules against blue Smarties and Kinder Eggs or sheer distance keeping Americans safe.
Yep, it hates them and lobbies against them. See here for a decent summary of the issues:
Aiui and from your link, for which thanks, most of the objection is to an extension of GIs into America as part of a trade agreement, rather than to the current model. Yes, I see that.
"It’s possible to foresee a world where Lib Dem / SNP gains really hurt the Tories & meanwhile Lab run a 2017 style campaign that recovers vote share again."
The Lib Dems are turbo charged by remainer Labour
The key is, come an election, how many 2017 Labour voters in Labour marginals will
Yes the likes of HY has tied himself to these polls last time isn’t it?
I would agree though, waiting till 2020, 21, 22, could result in a more cataclysmic loss
No Deal Brexit collapses the Brexit Party vote in the Tories favour, if an election is held in the autumn perhaps even to get a mandate for it there is less economic impact yet and by aiming for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop Boris looks reasonable to swing voters if the EU refuse.
Boris is also a far better campaigner than May and will not repeat the likes of the dementia tax gaffe
You think Boris is a better campaigner than May and not gaffe after gaffe waiting to happen? Then why did
Boris has won 2 London Mayoral elections, the only Tory to do so and was lead campaigner for Leave in the winning EU referendum campaign.
By offering to propose a technical solution for the Irish border to Merkel and Macron in 30 days he also looks reasonable to swing voters if the EU refuse his proposal and he has to go to No Deal on October 31st, so excellent politics again
Ken Livingstone is the only Labour politician to win 2 London mayoral elections and no-one is suggesting he should lead Labour. If Ken hadn’t gratuitously pissed off Jewish voters in NW postcodes he would have won in 2008 and in 2012 he was a tired busted flush. Then again so is Corbyn. But it’s not just Corbyn he’s up against.
The problem with a “technical solution” is that (even if there is one) it is, well, technical - in other words it needs attention to detail. Which even his most rabid defenders cannot say he has.
London is a mainly Labour city, not an area in the shires.
Boris has advisers to do the detail, like most of the best leaders he sets the direction
Horace Cutler won London in 1977 - and only lost narrowly in 1981. The Tories also did very well indeed there at the 1987 GE.
Even if Boris does win the polls are showing it will not be on the scale May was projected to win by in 2017, currently most polls predict a Tory majority of 0 to 50 at most not 100+ as they were predicting in early 2017. What is the same though is Boris still has a clear lead over Corbyn as best PM and best PM numbers tend to be a better predictor of election winners than general voting intention numbers.
Corbyn will also face the problem the general election is likely to be in the midst of Brexit with Boris and Farage winning Leavers to finally deliver Brexit and the LDs, Greens and SNP winning Remainers to stop Brexit and so he will get squeezed whereas in 2017 there were still 2 days until Brexit Day so he could neutralise the issue by promising Leavers he would still deliver Brexit and Remainers he would stop a hard Brexit and then focus on an anti austerity message. He is unlikely to be able to repeat the trick again
Much as I have argued with you @HYUFD I acknowledge you do seem to have an inside track on the machinations of the Tory Party...
How do you currently see things panning out - GE before Brexit, just after, or early next year?
Corbyn pushes a VONC in September which fails, if the EU do not agree to a technical alternative to the backstop by the end of conference season I think Boris will call a general election in early October on a Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket on October 31st, the EU will grant an extension until general election day at the Commons request which Boris will reluctantly accept forcing a choice between Brexit with No Deal under Boris or potentially further extension leading to EUref2 and no Brexit at all with Labour, the LDs and SNP
That all sounds plausible but I appreciate it's just a guess. Thanks.
Timing doesn't worth though. With the FTPA you need 25 days between an election being called and the actual election.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr O'Callaghan - who chairs the association, which represents pie producers - said: "We don't actually export to Thailand or Iceland. It is certainly available in Iceland the shop."
Let me guess, a bad boy told BJ this and ran away (not that he'll ever feel obliged to justify it, particularly since he's now refusing to be interviewed by C4 because they accused him of..er..lying).
At the weekend BJ was blathering on about all the current restrictions to UK exports to the US, including shower trays. I think the exciting opportunities of the international shower tray trade have got innovative jam knocked into a cocked hat.
The American food lobby hates GIs. It will want the UK to, at a minimum, have a far more flexible regime than the EU does. Of course, the Melton Mowbray pork pie is not the most significant UK EU GI, Cornish pasties and Stilton are probably a bigger deal - but the biggest one of all, by a country mile, is Scotch whisky.
Is that actually true? That the American food lobby hates GIs? Or are GIs something American negotiators can "reluctantly" concede because in most cases there are FDA rules against blue Smarties and Kinder Eggs or sheer distance keeping Americans safe.
Yep, it hates them and lobbies against them. See here for a decent summary of the issues:
Aiui and from your link, for which thanks, most of the objection is to an extension of GIs into America as part of a trade agreement, rather than to the current model. Yes, I see that.
They’d also require a much looser GI regime in the UK, so that US companies could export things like Stilton, Cornish pasties and Scotch to the UK.
You think Boris is a better campaigner than May and not gaffe after gaffe waiting to happen? Then why did his own campaign team hide him and not use this potent super weapon?
For evidence look at last weeks podium with Angela: Trumpesque mocking of Merkel with his premeditated “Wir schaffen das” jibe. And then accepting the insane 30day challenge with bumbling oomph leaving Malcolm Tucker back in downing street sounding off at the screen and banging his head on the table whilst chanting further expletives about the lack of operating sponge between his bosses ears.
*yawn*
We can Leave if we want to We can Leave our friends behind Cos our friends won't Leave, and if they won't Leave Then they're, no friends of mine!
We need to be careful when looking back at party vote shares in 1970. Whilst the combined Tory/Labour vote share was almost 90% , such a figure was artificially high in that both parties received many second preference votes from Liberal - and other - voters in the hundreds of seats which the latter failed to contest.In 1970 the Liberals fought barely half the 630 seats then in existence, and as a result many voters were presented with just Tory and Labour candidates.Even in February 1974, the Liberals did not fight circa 100 seats - though did have a full slate of candidates in the October election later the same year.
It's true the Liberals contested many more seats - the Party was on the up and thought it could risk the deposit money (back then you needed 12.5% of the vote to keep the deposit) in Feb 74 and I think we can probably argue the seats not contested were the ones the Party was unlikely to do well in. Adding the extra seats didn't significantly affect the overall share which fell 1% in October.
The Liberals fought 332 seats in 1970, 517 in Feb 1974 and 619 in Oct 1974 but I would argue the increase in number of seats contested was only part of the overall vote increase which saw the Party go from 7.5% to 19.3% - fighting 200 extra seats doesn't account for that in isolation.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr O'Callaghan - who chairs the association, which represents pie producers - said: "We don't actually export to Thailand or Iceland. It is certainly available in Iceland the shop."
Let me guess, a bad boy told BJ this and ran away (not that he'll ever feel obliged to justify it, particularly since he's now refusing to be interviewed by C4 because they accused him of..er..lying).
At the weekend BJ was blathering on about all the current restrictions to UK exports to the US, including shower trays. I think the exciting opportunities of the international shower tray trade have got innovative jam knocked into a cocked hat.
The American food lobby hates GIs. It will want the UK to, at a minimum, have a far more flexible regime than the EU does. Of course, the Melton Mowbray pork pie is not the most significant UK EU GI, Cornish pasties and Stilton are probably a bigger deal - but the biggest one of all, by a country mile, is Scotch whisky.
Is that actually true? That the American food lobby hates GIs? Or are GIs something American negotiators can "reluctantly" concede because in most cases there are FDA rules against blue Smarties and Kinder Eggs or sheer distance keeping Americans safe.
Yep, it hates them and lobbies against them. See here for a decent summary of the issues:
Aiui and from your link, for which thanks, most of the objection is to an extension of GIs into America as part of a trade agreement, rather than to the current model. Yes, I see that.
They’d also require a much looser GI regime in the UK, so that US companies could export things like Stilton, Cornish pasties and Scotch to the UK.
That was the bit I doubted. We can already buy American booze like Jack Daniels, and fresh food is largely protected by distance (and health-based regulations). The bigger problem appears to be not that Americans could not sell Cornish pasties or Feta cheese in Europe but if they accepted GIs as part of a trade agreement, American producers would not be allowed to sell Cornish pasties or Feta cheese to Americans, and that is where the money is.
We need to be careful when looking back at party vote shares in 1970. Whilst the combined Tory/Labour vote share was almost 90% , such a figure was artificially high in that both parties received many second preference votes from Liberal - and other - voters in the hundreds of seats which the latter failed to contest.In 1970 the Liberals fought barely half the 630 seats then in existence, and as a result many voters were presented with just Tory and Labour candidates.Even in February 1974, the Liberals did not fight circa 100 seats - though did have a full slate of candidates in the October election later the same year.
It's true the Liberals contested many more seats - the Party was on the up and thought it could risk the deposit money (back then you needed 12.5% of the vote to keep the deposit) in Feb 74 and I think we can probably argue the seats not contested were the ones the Party was unlikely to do well in. Adding the extra seats didn't significantly affect the overall share which fell 1% in October.
The Liberals fought 332 seats in 1970, 517 in Feb 1974 and 619 in Oct 1974 but I would argue the increase in number of seats contested was only part of the overall vote increase which saw the Party go from 7.5% to 19.3% - fighting 200 extra seats doesn't account for that in isolation.
I would not wish to deny that there was a Liberal surge in the last two weeks of the February 1974 campaign - but a fair bit of the higher vote share reflected having more candidates in the field. Had they offered the same number of candidates in 1970 , the Liberals would have surely managed circa 12% with a consequent loss of vote share for both main parties. The 1% drop in vote share at the October 74 election masked a somewhat sharper underlying decline - given that the party contested an additional 100 seats.
I think a thread header on the future of the BBC would be great if someone wants to do one? There was one a little while back if I'm not misremembering.
My concern with privatisation would be a) if we end up (as is often the case imo) flogging public assets off cheap and b) that we should still have some public service broadcasting which isn't commercial.
But both of these can be addressed by the state retaining a decent/controlling stake potentially. To be honest it seems a vote winning policy, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more parties proposing it at the next election.
I think a thread header on the future of the BBC would be great if someone wants to do one? There was one a little while back if I'm not misremembering.
My concern with privatisation would be a) if we end up (as is often the case imo) flogging public assets off cheap and b) that we should still have some public service broadcasting which isn't commercial.
But both of these can be addressed by the state retaining a decent/controlling stake potentially. To be honest it seems a vote winning policy, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more parties proposing it at the next election.
I would not wish to deny that there was a Liberal surge in the last two weeks of the February 1974 campaign - but a fair bit of the higher vote share reflected having more candidates in the field. Had they offered the same number of candidates in 1970 , the Liberals would have surely managed circa 12% with a consequent loss of vote share for both main parties. The 1% drop in vote share at the October 74 election masked a somewhat sharper underlying decline - given that the party contested an additional 100 seats.
It was an additional 102 seats which presumably were deemed not worth fighting in February. Yes, the vote share fell 1% and the actual vote fell from just over 6 million in February to 5,350,000 so it's a notable fall though I'd add turnout was down 6% overall which was just over 2 million votes and the Conservatives lost over 1 million votes. Labour also polled fewer votes - down about 150,000 so they lost fewer votes and on a falling turnout their vote share was up very slightly.
I'm not sure I'd call it a "sharp underlying decline" in all honesty, Turnout masks things - the Alliance parties got close to 8 million votes in 1983 and 1987 while Nick Clegg was just shy of 7 million in 2010.
There are now about 44 million electors in England, Scotland and Wales - a 70% turnout across the board would mean 30.8 million votes and if the LDs got 20% of those that would equate to only 6.1 million so not remarkable in sheer numbers but increase the turnout to 80% and the LDs on the same vote share poll over 7 million.
Even if Boris does win the polls are showing it will not be on the scale May was projected to win by in 2017, currently most polls predict a Tory majority of 0 to 50 at most not 100+ as they were predicting in early 2017. What is the same though is Boris still has a clear lead over Corbyn as best PM and best PM numbers tend to be a better predictor of election winners than general voting intention numbers.
Corbyn will also face the problem the general election is likely to be in the midst of Brexit with Boris and Farage winning Leavers to finally deliver Brexit and the LDs, Greens and SNP winning Remainers to stop Brexit and so he will get squeezed whereas in 2017 there were still 2 days until Brexit Day so he could neutralise the issue by promising Leavers he would still deliver Brexit and Remainers he would stop a hard Brexit and then focus on an anti austerity message. He is unlikely to be able to repeat the trick again
Much as I have argued with you @HYUFD I acknowledge you do seem to have an inside track on the machinations of the Tory Party...
How do you currently see things panning out - GE before Brexit, just after, or early next year?
Corbyn pushes a VONC in September which fails, if the EU do not agree to a technical alternative to the backstop by the end of conference season I think Boris will call a general election in early October on a Brexit Deal or No Deal ticket on October 31st, the EU will grant an extension until general election day at the Commons request which Boris will reluctantly accept forcing a choice between Brexit with No Deal under Boris or potentially further extension leading to EUref2 and no Brexit at all with Labour, the LDs and SNP
That all sounds plausible but I appreciate it's just a guess. Thanks.
Timing doesn't worth though. With the FTPA you need 25 days between an election being called and the actual election.
You also need 441 MPs to vote for said election.
When would Corbyn really want a GE ? After a no deal Brexit in Nov 2019 ?
I would not wish to deny that there was a Liberal surge in the last two weeks of the February 1974 campaign - but a fair bit of the higher vote share reflected having more candidates in the field. Had they offered the same number of candidates in 1970 , the Liberals would have surely managed circa 12% with a consequent loss of vote share for both main parties. The 1% drop in vote share at the October 74 election masked a somewhat sharper underlying decline - given that the party contested an additional 100 seats.
It was an additional 102 seats which presumably were deemed not worth fighting in February. Yes, the vote share fell 1% and the actual vote fell from just over 6 million in February to 5,350,000 so it's a notable fall though I'd add turnout was down 6% overall which was just over 2 million votes and the Conservatives lost over 1 million votes. Labour also polled fewer votes - down about 150,000 so they lost fewer votes and on a falling turnout their vote share was up very slightly.
I'm not sure I'd call it a "sharp underlying decline" in all honesty, Turnout masks things - the Alliance parties got close to 8 million votes in 1983 and 1987 while Nick Clegg was just shy of 7 million in 2010.
There are now about 44 million electors in England, Scotland and Wales - a 70% turnout across the board would mean 30.8 million votes and if the LDs got 20% of those that would equate to only 6.1 million so not remarkable in sheer numbers but increase the turnout to 80% and the LDs on the same vote share poll over 7 million.
I did not wish to imply a 'sharp underlying decline' - merely that it was somewhat 'sharper' than suggested by the headline figures!
The next election will be fought on the new political paradigm - leave/remain. Several parties are now very clearly embedded in positions along this new axis - Brexit and Tory on the Brexit side, LibDem, SNP, Plaid, Green, TIG on the other.
My former party - Labour- is the wild card. There is no way on this planet that the Stalinists will allow Labour to run a clear campaign that is unequivocally remain, No Way. Regardless of what party may want or even vote for.
So we can expect that in such a campaign as Brexit rages Labour will keep trying to ignore it, and will continue to openly contradict themselves. What impact this has will depend on the metrics in each individual seat. In my own seat of Stockton South Dr Paul Williams has been out front for remain and a referendum since the get go, knowing that our election win in 2017 was pulled off by creating a coalition of switching progressive voters. Alternately In Sheffield Hallam Labour took the seat from the LibDems because voters pivoted away from Clegg and the coalition and were prepared to vite for literally anyone as an alternative...
So an election won't be smooth and UNS can stay in it's box. But my view remains that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity where he can call an election as his last remaining play before being emancipated by MPs and can campaign against parliament on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
It's a risk. A big risk. But is not going a bigger risk...?
Do you mean emancipated or emasculated, Mr Pioneers? The alternative reading would, I thin, make better sense.
I did not wish to imply a 'sharp underlying decline' - merely that it was somewhat 'sharper' than suggested by the headline figures!
There's a valid comment in there - the Liberals lost some of their share recompensed slightly by fighting more seats but the Conservatives lost a million votes while Labour was down 150,000 or so.
We can posit a fall in the Liberal vote was marginally offset by fighting 102 extra seats but the fall in turnout was greater and affected all parties though the Labour vote was more willing to come out and back Wilson.
Johnson is clearly enjoying being Prime Minister, which he has looked forward to all his life. He really needs, and seems to want, a Brexit success, which is incompatible with the scorched earth that his policy implies. I get the impression his heart is no longer in Do or Die, although nothing changed on the ground and his advisors and backers are pushing to burn the bridges.
So he is rapidly foll owing May's journey and has now reactivated Chequers that the EU rejected sand he called a turd before resigning over it.
The Brexit challenge is to negotiate an arrangement that is significantly worse than the one we already have and call it a triumph. Johnson thinks he can do that, I believe.
Even if he doesn't think he can, he's got no choice, on the "if you can't ride two horses, you shouldn't have joined the circus" principle.
At some point, he will have to press the go/no go button on leaving with no deal on October 31. That may come in 25ish days time. Whatever he does then will upset someone. Then the gamesg afoot...
I'm not sure about this. Johnson may have to accept the backstop.
FWIW, I think that he'll try that as well. Accept the backstop with some lipstick, stand down the no deal plan, probably blaming Gove and Cummings for misleading him about the adequacy of their no deal prep. But the climbdown from his current posture will be enormous.
Couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
Brexit is far less interesting than Cricket and BBC privatization. But since you raised it, I'm amazed how many people still think the government is bluffing on No Deal. This is now the overwhelmingly likely outcome.
I don't think the government is bluffing about No Deal. Brexit is at core an ideological project. No Deal is a likely outcome. Problem for Johnson is that No Deal is incompatible with Brexit success. Blaming others for failure is weak gruel. I think Johnson wants and needs something that can be passed off as a triumph of statesmanship.
The next election will be fought on the new political paradigm - leave/remain. Several parties are now very clearly embedded in positions along this new axis - Brexit and Tory on the Brexit side, LibDem, SNP, Plaid, Green, TIG on the other.
My former party - Labour- is the wild card. There is no way on this planet that the Stalinists will allow Labour to run a clear campaign that is unequivocally remain, No Way. Regardless of what party may want or even vote for.
So we can expect that in such a campaign as Brexit rages Labour will keep trying to ignore it, and will continue to openly contradict themselves. What impact this has will depend on the metrics in each individual seat. In my own seat of Stockton South Dr Paul Williams has been out front for remain and a referendum since the get go, knowing that our election win in 2017 was pulled off by creating a coalition of switching progressive voters. Alternately In Sheffield Hallam Labour took the seat from the LibDems because voters pivoted away from Clegg and the coalition and were prepared to vite for literally anyone as an alternative...
So an election won't be smooth and UNS can stay in it's box. But my view remains that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity where he can call an election as his last remaining play before being emancipated by MPs and can campaign against parliament on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
It's a risk. A big risk. But is not going a bigger risk...?
Yes, I agree that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity, during which he has every opportunity to squeeze the Brexit Party should he go for an election on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
What is notable about the most recent polls is that there is a fairly consistent share for the unambiguously pro-Brexit parties, despite inconsistencies in the Conservative vote share: i.e. YouGov 47% (33+14+0), Opinium 49% (32+16+1), Kantar 47% (42+5+0). Johnson has to unite that coalition enough to squeeze the Brexit Party into high single figures - that will I think be enough for his working majority.
The best game I've ever been to live was as an 8 year old child seeing my Tranmere Rovers face Bolton Wanderers in the old Third Division [now League One] Play Off Final at Wembley. We beat Bolton 1-0 during extra time and I remember the chanting of all our fans being "We are going up, Reebok go home."
That was 28 years ago and since then the fortunes of the clubs have been mixed to say the least! Bolton ended up spending a spell in the Premiership while after some incredible cup runs at the turn of the century we faced repeated relegations until what felt like oblivion being relegated out of the Football League.
A few years later fortunes have changed again and now we're both back where we started in League One [the old Third Division of course] but when we played Bolton and beat them 5-0 recently that was not a victory that it felt possible to celebrate in the circumstances.
What is happening in Bolton is utterly tragic and could have happened to many a club. I hope a solution is found still, but if this is the end of Bolton Wanderers then this is a terrible tragedy for their fans especially but football in general.
Philip, I've been away for a few days and although I still disagree with you on a number of things I just wanted to acknowledge that I found a particular post you did re a hard border in Ireland a few days ago very interesting and something I hadn't thought of and although I still think nothing has changed I must admit Boris is putting up a good effort.
The next election will be fought on the new political paradigm - leave/remain. Several parties are now very clearly embedded in positions along this new axis - Brexit and Tory on the Brexit side, LibDem, SNP, Plaid, Green, TIG on the other.
My former party - Labour- is the wild card. There is no way on this planet that the Stalinists will allow Labour to run a clear campaign that is unequivocally remain, No Way. Regardless of what party may want or even vote for.
So we can expect that in such a campaign as Brexit rages Labour will keep trying to ignore it, and will continue to openly contradict themselves. What impact this has will depend on the metrics in each individual seat. In my own seat of Stockton South Dr Paul Williams has been out front for remain and a referendum since the get go, knowing that our election win in 2017 was pulled off by creating a coalition of switching progressive voters. Alternately In Sheffield Hallam Labour took the seat from the LibDems because voters pivoted away from Clegg and the coalition and were prepared to vite for literally anyone as an alternative...
So an election won't be smooth and UNS can stay in it's box. But my view remains that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity where he can call an election as his last remaining play before being emancipated by MPs and can campaign against parliament on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
It's a risk. A big risk. But is not going a bigger risk...?
Except that he doesn’t get to call an election thanks to the FTPA. Or do you think Corbyn would take up the challenge and back a vote for an election ?
And I don’t see how a PM publicly determined to Leave at the end of October asks for an election before that.
The next election will be fought on the new political paradigm - leave/remain. Several parties are now very clearly embedded in positions along this new axis - Brexit and Tory on the Brexit side, LibDem, SNP, Plaid, Green, TIG on the other.
My former party - Labour- is the wild card. There is no way on this planet that the Stalinists will allow Labour to run a clear campaign that is unequivocally remain, No Way. Regardless of what party may want or even vote for.
So we can expect that in such a campaign as Brexit rages Labour will keep trying to ignore it, and will continue to openly contradict themselves. What impact this has will depend on the metrics in each individual seat. In my own seat of Stockton South Dr Paul Williams has been out front for remain and a referendum since the get go, knowing that our election win in 2017 was pulled off by creating a coalition of switching progressive voters. Alternately In Sheffield Hallam Labour took the seat from the LibDems because voters pivoted away from Clegg and the coalition and were prepared to vite for literally anyone as an alternative...
So an election won't be smooth and UNS can stay in it's box. But my view remains that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity where he can call an election as his last remaining play before being emancipated by MPs and can campaign against parliament on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
It's a risk. A big risk. But is not going a bigger risk...?
Yes, I agree that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity, during which he has every opportunity to squeeze the Brexit Party should he go for an election on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
What is notable about the most recent polls is that there is a fairly consistent share for the unambiguously pro-Brexit parties, despite inconsistencies in the Conservative vote share: i.e. YouGov 47% (33+14+0), Opinium 49% (32+16+1), Kantar 47% (42+5+0). Johnson has to unite that coalition enough to squeeze the Brexit Party into high single figures - that will I think be enough for his working majority.
Much of the residual Brexit Party vote is unlikely to switch to the Tories - in the same way that many 2015 UKIP voters declined the opportunity to vote Tory in 2017.
Harris’s figures are a bit better than the consensus view of her. I think it still a bit early to write off her chances completely. But it does seem to be shaping up to be a Warren/Biden contest, even if neither is inevitable.
The next election will be fought on the new political paradigm - leave/remain. Several parties are now very clearly embedded in positions along this new axis - Brexit and Tory on the Brexit side, LibDem, SNP, Plaid, Green, TIG on the other.
My former party - Labour- is the wild card. There is no way on this planet that the Stalinists will allow Labour to run a clear campaign that is unequivocally remain, No Way. Regardless of what party may want or even vote for.
So we can expect that in such a campaign as Brexit rages Labour will keep trying to ignore it, and will continue to openly contradict themselves. What impact this has will depend on the metrics in each individual seat. In my own seat of Stockton South Dr Paul Williams has been out front for remain and a referendum since the get go, knowing that our election win in 2017 was pulled off by creating a coalition of switching progressive voters. Alternately In Sheffield Hallam Labour took the seat from the LibDems because voters pivoted away from Clegg and the coalition and were prepared to vite for literally anyone as an alternative...
So an election won't be smooth and UNS can stay in it's box. But my view remains that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity where he can call an election as his last remaining play before being emancipated by MPs and can campaign against parliament on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
It's a risk. A big risk. But is not going a bigger risk...?
Yes, I agree that Johnson has a narrow window of opportunity, during which he has every opportunity to squeeze the Brexit Party should he go for an election on a "give me majority to deliver No Deal" platform.
What is notable about the most recent polls is that there is a fairly consistent share for the unambiguously pro-Brexit parties, despite inconsistencies in the Conservative vote share: i.e. YouGov 47% (33+14+0), Opinium 49% (32+16+1), Kantar 47% (42+5+0). Johnson has to unite that coalition enough to squeeze the Brexit Party into high single figures - that will I think be enough for his working majority.
Much of the residual Brexit Party vote is unlikely to switch to the Tories - in the same way that many 2015 UKIP voters declined the opportunity to vote Tory in 2017.
I think that depends upon the circumstances of any election. And those are for now entirely unclear.
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
The best game I've ever been to live was as an 8 year old child seeing my Tranmere Rovers face Bolton Wanderers in the old Third Division [now League One] Play Off Final at Wembley. We beat Bolton 1-0 during extra time and I remember the chanting of all our fans being "We are going up, Reebok go home."
That was 28 years ago and since then the fortunes of the clubs have been mixed to say the least! Bolton ended up spending a spell in the Premiership while after some incredible cup runs at the turn of the century we faced repeated relegations until what felt like oblivion being relegated out of the Football League.
A few years later fortunes have changed again and now we're both back where we started in League One [the old Third Division of course] but when we played Bolton and beat them 5-0 recently that was not a victory that it felt possible to celebrate in the circumstances.
What is happening in Bolton is utterly tragic and could have happened to many a club. I hope a solution is found still, but if this is the end of Bolton Wanderers then this is a terrible tragedy for their fans especially but football in general.
I’ve disagreed with you politically, it on this, I’m with you. There have been some local heroes in football..... Bob Lord ..... if you want to go back a bit, but some owners have solely been there for their personal aggrandisement. Owen Oyston comes to mind, and there’s someone locally who built ‘their’ club only to let it crash and burn when they lost interest.
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
Look at his years of reporting for the Telegraph from Brussels. The pork pie story (or the kipper one) are very much of a piece with the imaginative bilge he wrote back then.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
The other point, of course, is that any trade deal with the US is likely to look like the one Japan just shook hands on - we will agree improved trade terms for the US in return for their not making ours any worse....
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
Look at his years of reporting for the Telegraph from Brussels. The pork pie story (or the kipper one) are very much of a piece with the imaginative bilge he wrote back then.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
Making shit up has served Johson well so far, so why stop?
He is also treated incredibly indulgently by the media ("Boris" fuck that, he isn't a very naughty boy and sure as hell isn't the Messiah), as if he is a 5-year-old and everyone has to applaud his every performance, however shit.
The best game I've ever been to live was as an 8 year old child seeing my Tranmere Rovers face Bolton Wanderers in the old Third Division [now League One] Play Off Final at Wembley. We beat Bolton 1-0 during extra time and I remember the chanting of all our fans being "We are going up, Reebok go home."
That was 28 years ago and since then the fortunes of the clubs have been mixed to say the least! Bolton ended up spending a spell in the Premiership while after some incredible cup runs at the turn of the century we faced repeated relegations until what felt like oblivion being relegated out of the Football League.
A few years later fortunes have changed again and now we're both back where we started in League One [the old Third Division of course] but when we played Bolton and beat them 5-0 recently that was not a victory that it felt possible to celebrate in the circumstances.
What is happening in Bolton is utterly tragic and could have happened to many a club. I hope a solution is found still, but if this is the end of Bolton Wanderers then this is a terrible tragedy for their fans especially but football in general.
I’ve disagreed with you politically, it on this, I’m with you. There have been some local heroes in football..... Bob Lord ..... if you want to go back a bit, but some owners have solely been there for their personal aggrandisement. Owen Oyston comes to mind, and there’s someone locally who built ‘their’ club only to let it crash and burn when they lost interest.
Trouble with Bolton is it is difficult to identify a true "villain." They took a punt on a hugely over ambitious stadium, hotel and shopping complex miles out of town, just before Internet shopping took off. They were almost insolvent when Allardyce became manager. He somehow got them up and kept them up for years, even getting them into Europe. But the long-term debt never got dealt with. Former owner Eddie Davies was rumoured to have put £150m in. No one has ripped them off as far as can be seen. They simply took a poor business decision 20+ years ago.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr O'Callaghan - who chairs the association, which represents pie producers - said: "We don't actually export to Thailand or Iceland. It is certainly available in Iceland the shop."
Let me guess, a bad boy told BJ this and ran away (not that he'll ever feel obliged to justify it, particularly since he's now refusing to be interviewed by C4 because they accused him of..er..lying).
At the weekend BJ was blathering on about all the current restrictions to UK exports to the US, including shower trays. I think the exciting opportunities of the international shower tray trade have got innovative jam knocked into a cocked hat.
"It’s possible to foresee a world where Lib Dem / SNP gains really hurt the Tories & meanwhile Lab run a 2017 style campaign that recovers vote share again."
The Lib Dems are turbo charged by remainer Labour
The key is, come an election, how many 2017 Labour voters in Labour marginals will
Yes the likes of HY has tied himself to these polls last time isn’t it?
The last Survation poll in the 2017 campaign had a 1% Tory lead, the Tories ended up with a 2% lead, the latest Survation has a 4% Tory lead
That 4% lead is not a day before polling day though is it? The theme of an election doesn’t emerge till the campaign is underway. And I’m confident If the election comes this autumn with no deal brexit in the air the theme will be Boris Johnson will wreck the economy and make your household poorer.
I would agree though, waiting till 2020, 21, 22, could result in a more cataclysmic loss
No Deal Brexit collapses the Brexit Party vote in the Tories favour, if an election is held in the autumn perhaps even to get a mandate for it there is less economic impact yet and by aiming for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop Boris looks reasonable to swing voters if the EU refuse.
Boris is also a far better campaigner than May and will not repeat the likes of the dementia tax gaffe
You think Boris is a better campaigner than May and not gaffe after gaffe waiting to happen? Then why did
Ken Livingstone is the only Labour politician to win 2 London mayoral elections and no-one is suggesting he should lead Labour. If Ken hadn’t gratuitously pissed off Jewish voters in NW postcodes he would have won in 2008 and in 2012 he was a tired busted flush. Then again so is Corbyn. But it’s not just Corbyn he’s up against.
The problem with a “technical solution” is that (even if there is one) it is, well, technical - in other words it needs attention to detail. Which even his most rabid defenders cannot say he has.
London is a mainly Labour city, not an area in the shires.
Boris has advisers to do the detail, like most of the best leaders he sets the direction
Mr. kjh, one might suspect that the PM is an incompetent buffoon.
I remember the Andrew Tyrie comment when chairing a committee Boris was in front off. It went along the lines of 'That's all very well Boris, but none of it is true is it?'
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
Look at his years of reporting for the Telegraph from Brussels. The pork pie story (or the kipper one) are very much of a piece with the imaginative bilge he wrote back then.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
His approach is the embodiment of not letting the truth get in the way of a good story.
In the end it looks like Gove screwed us all over by sabotaging Boris last time. We instead pissed away three years with May. Boris may actually have been a better unifier had he won and would've probably governed more as he did London rather than his Cummings/ERG approach he's now locked in to.
I think the split vote shares in the polls are hiding the true picture. I would expect Labour to outperform and LDs to underperform on polling day as tactical anti no deal voting kicks in, and Labour are 2nd place in more seats than LDs (assuming a prebrexit election, post brexit much harder to figure out). Boris may be able to squeeze BXP a bit further but there will be a core vote there that he won't get on-board (would expect BXP to get around 7-8%). very risky for him to go for a prebrexit ge.
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
Look at his years of reporting for the Telegraph from Brussels. The pork pie story (or the kipper one) are very much of a piece with the imaginative bilge he wrote back then.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
His experience is that if he tells a colourful story that doesn't stand up but also doesn't matter very much, people will be amused by his cheek and it'll get him in the news again. That is the key lesson that Trump has taught us - if you constantly attract attention, even for moderately disreputable things, people will keep you front of mind and will grumble that they never hear from your opponents, who are busy doing worthy and unremarkable things.
Arguably, Corbyn shouldn't be speaking about child poverty or addressing the fine points of Brexit, but doing a stunt selling his marrows in Covent Garden or claiming that he once ran a marathon. in 20 minutes.
It's bit sad for us nerds, and possibly for Britain.
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
Look at his years of reporting for the Telegraph from Brussels. The pork pie story (or the kipper one) are very much of a piece with the imaginative bilge he wrote back then.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
His experience is that if he tells a colourful story that doesn't stand up but also doesn't matter very much, people will be amused by his cheek and it'll get him in the news again. That is the key lesson that Trump has taught us - if you constantly attract attention, even for moderately disreputable things, people will keep you front of mind and will grumble that they never hear from your opponents, who are busy doing worthy and unremarkable things.
Arguably, Corbyn shouldn't be speaking about child poverty or addressing the fine points of Brexit, but doing a stunt selling his marrows in Covent Garden or claiming that he once ran a marathon. in 20 minutes.
It's bit sad for us nerds, and possibly for Britain.
I’m not yet convinced that the UK electorate, however much they might be charmed by him (FWIW, I’m immune, so perhaps not the best judge), will actually vote for the cheerful bullshitter.
Re Boris - listening to the Today programme this morning and the guy from the Melton Mowbray Association it is difficult to believe that Boris got so many facts wrong in such a short sentence. And of course there was no need to. This wasn't a remain/leave issue. This was about exports to the US. There must have been dozens of other examples to use. Why say stuff that is so wrong and for no obvious benefit. Why isn't he verifying these facts? Where is he getting them from? It was an unnecessary thing to do.
Look at his years of reporting for the Telegraph from Brussels. The pork pie story (or the kipper one) are very much of a piece with the imaginative bilge he wrote back then.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
Except the kipper story turned out to be true. But by that time all the braying remainerite twitter crowd had moved on.
Comments
There are so many imponderables in the next few weeks - I think Boris could survive through a No Deal Brexit without an election simply because his opponents are so divided. That said, it may get problematic if the impacts are as drastic as some suggest and I think those Conservatives fighting local elections in 2020 may not be too comfortable but with an election not due until 2022 there's time to sort things out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/49470865
You also need 441 MPs to vote for said election.
We can Leave if we want to
We can Leave our friends behind
Cos our friends won't Leave, and if they won't Leave
Then they're, no friends of mine!
The Liberals fought 332 seats in 1970, 517 in Feb 1974 and 619 in Oct 1974 but I would argue the increase in number of seats contested was only part of the overall vote increase which saw the Party go from 7.5% to 19.3% - fighting 200 extra seats doesn't account for that in isolation.
My concern with privatisation would be a) if we end up (as is often the case imo) flogging public assets off cheap and b) that we should still have some public service broadcasting which isn't commercial.
But both of these can be addressed by the state retaining a decent/controlling stake potentially. To be honest it seems a vote winning policy, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more parties proposing it at the next election.
I'm not sure I'd call it a "sharp underlying decline" in all honesty, Turnout masks things - the Alliance parties got close to 8 million votes in 1983 and 1987 while Nick Clegg was just shy of 7 million in 2010.
There are now about 44 million electors in England, Scotland and Wales - a 70% turnout across the board would mean 30.8 million votes and if the LDs got 20% of those that would equate to only 6.1 million so not remarkable in sheer numbers but increase the turnout to 80% and the LDs on the same vote share poll over 7 million.
After a no deal Brexit in Nov 2019 ?
We can posit a fall in the Liberal vote was marginally offset by fighting 102 extra seats but the fall in turnout was greater and affected all parties though the Labour vote was more willing to come out and back Wilson.
What is notable about the most recent polls is that there is a fairly consistent share for the unambiguously pro-Brexit parties, despite inconsistencies in the Conservative vote share: i.e. YouGov 47% (33+14+0), Opinium 49% (32+16+1), Kantar 47% (42+5+0). Johnson has to unite that coalition enough to squeeze the Brexit Party into high single figures - that will I think be enough for his working majority.
The best game I've ever been to live was as an 8 year old child seeing my Tranmere Rovers face Bolton Wanderers in the old Third Division [now League One] Play Off Final at Wembley. We beat Bolton 1-0 during extra time and I remember the chanting of all our fans being "We are going up, Reebok go home."
That was 28 years ago and since then the fortunes of the clubs have been mixed to say the least! Bolton ended up spending a spell in the Premiership while after some incredible cup runs at the turn of the century we faced repeated relegations until what felt like oblivion being relegated out of the Football League.
A few years later fortunes have changed again and now we're both back where we started in League One [the old Third Division of course] but when we played Bolton and beat them 5-0 recently that was not a victory that it felt possible to celebrate in the circumstances.
What is happening in Bolton is utterly tragic and could have happened to many a club. I hope a solution is found still, but if this is the end of Bolton Wanderers then this is a terrible tragedy for their fans especially but football in general.
Or do you think Corbyn would take up the challenge and back a vote for an election ?
And I don’t see how a PM publicly determined to Leave at the end of October asks for an election before that.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-biden-has-an-iowa-problem-not-an-enthusiasm-problem/
Harris’s figures are a bit better than the consensus view of her. I think it still a bit early to write off her chances completely.
But it does seem to be shaping up to be a Warren/Biden contest, even if neither is inevitable.
And those are for now entirely unclear.
Mr. kjh, one might suspect that the PM is an incompetent buffoon.
I suspect he is constitutionally incapable of not telling/inventing curious stories.
He is also treated incredibly indulgently by the media ("Boris" fuck that, he isn't a very naughty boy and sure as hell isn't the Messiah), as if he is a 5-year-old and everyone has to applaud his every performance, however shit.
I make shit up on purpose when writing* and dwell in artistic poverty, the PM makes it up about serious matters and governs the nation.
*books by Thaddeus White are well worth reading, if you enjoy fantasy.
They were almost insolvent when Allardyce became manager. He somehow got them up and kept them up for years, even getting them into Europe. But the long-term debt never got dealt with.
Former owner Eddie Davies was rumoured to have put £150m in. No one has ripped them off as far as can be seen.
They simply took a poor business decision 20+ years ago.
I think the split vote shares in the polls are hiding the true picture. I would expect Labour to outperform and LDs to underperform on polling day as tactical anti no deal voting kicks in, and Labour are 2nd place in more seats than LDs (assuming a prebrexit election, post brexit much harder to figure out). Boris may be able to squeeze BXP a bit further but there will be a core vote there that he won't get on-board (would expect BXP to get around 7-8%). very risky for him to go for a prebrexit ge.
Arguably, Corbyn shouldn't be speaking about child poverty or addressing the fine points of Brexit, but doing a stunt selling his marrows in Covent Garden or claiming that he once ran a marathon. in 20 minutes.
It's bit sad for us nerds, and possibly for Britain.
I guess we’ll find out.