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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Walsh – my 130/1 longshot for the Republican nomination
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Walsh – my 130/1 longshot for the Republican nomination
Generally speaking incumbent presidents tend not to have to face a serious primary challenge when they run for a second term. Certainly that’s been the assumption with Donald Trump and until now the possibility of other challengers has not appeared.
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If Walsh does run then you'd imagine that would open the floodgates for more mainstream Republicans to enter the race.
Hold on he is 800/960 there. Which makes his nomination odds around 400-1 surely ?
I'm not laying 960 but still.
Which seems to be working. Tory rebels have decided they don't need to rebel just yet.
The glowing headlines are a bonus.
Kasich would be interesting, and Romney might have one last run at it.
You mentioned Antrim as leading the resistance against the English pre the Protestant settlement
To some extent that is true but it was because the Earl of Tyrone was a devious and untrustworthy little shit rather than any “nationalistic sense” with a meaningful read across to today
From "Britain Elects"
Rokeby & Overslade (Rugby) result:
LDEM: 56.1% (-7.0)
CON: 20.2% (+1.8)
LAB: 9.6% (-8.8)
BREX: 9.5% (+9.5)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
I wish it was. It would make the campaign so much more interesting.
'My Maserati does 185
I lost my licence, now I don't drive...'
Anyhow nearly 60% of the vote is good in anyone’s book.
(https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/south-carolina-gop-could-scrap-2020-primary-to-protect-trump and https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/kansas-gop-likely-to-cancel-2020-caucus-not-as-needed-when-you-have-one-candidate)
You also need to remember that Trump has 80-90% approval within the party. That may be because many who dislike Trump but used to be members have since left the party, but it is also because the GOP is a completely crazy political party with no redeemable features. Trump is the symptom, not the cause. Pence or Cruz would be doing a lot of similar stuff as POTUS, just without the stupid gaffes and rhetoric. Arguably Trump only won because Americans thought he was moderate for the GOP in 2016: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-think-trump-has-moved-to-the-right/
There may be some money to be made on the shift in price if he does dive in. But I rather question whether that is likely (he's a radio host and it could well be a bit of PR to suggest he'll enter - doing so is more complex).
And if he does, will the price tighten all that much? You can get 50-1 on Booker and 100-1 on Klobucher for Democrat nominee... they ARE running and , while they are relative outsiders, they have both made the third debate qualifying threshold with relative ease, and there is a credible case that either of them could have a breakthrough in a fairly open race with a frontrunner who (while he has various merits) attracts nowhere near the fanatical devotion Trump does within the GOP.
Meanwhile, amusing reflection of the British commuter spirit here (read the comments too). Very un-American, I fear.
https://twitter.com/jamesorharry/status/1164440271607795712
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1164794108268830725?s=21
FPT
You didn’t answer my question on why a post No Deal backstop is logical
You said the EU will insist on it (which I agree is possible - it is certainly what they are saying at the moment)
But why is it logical
It means “we enter a negotiation but if we can’t agree then you give us everything we want”. That doesn’t seem like a basis for discussion
https://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2019/08/21/denmark-buy-america-from-russia/?utm_source=Rochdale+Herald+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=ac7582bcbb-The+Rochdale+Herald+Editor's+Picks&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c6eebb6843-ac7582bcbb-57803737&goal=0_c6eebb6843-ac7582bcbb-57803737&mc_cid=ac7582bcbb&mc_eid=699051b253
They will because it compromises their Single Market otherwise, which is why they're so desperate to nail us down now. We don't need to care about that though.
https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/status/1104052380088393733?s=21
I got up early today and went for a sunrise walk around Durham. My goodness, it's a beautiful place.
There must be NO backstop. What part of that are you struggling to comprehend? The backstop is undemocratic and unacceptable.
Its tragic in the 21st century that so many here are willing to throw it away so lightly.
Voting for the Parliament that sets your laws?
How bizarre (!)
One of the interesting things I wonder how people who laud the Osborne debt management defend. Specifically:
"So far, the outstanding cost of university tuition loans has added £105bn – around 5 per cent of GDP – to the UK’s debt. By the 2040s, according to Department for Education forecasts, it will have added £460bn, or nearly 12 per cent of GDP. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects that it will remain at above 10 per cent of GDP for decades thereafter.
With low interest rates, such a mountain of debt is manageable. When rates rise, that will change. The precise cost to government may also be underestimated. If university education turns out to be less useful than expected, the IFS points out, and future graduate earnings are even slightly lower than forecast, the taxpayer’s tab will rise rapidly. That seems plausible. In 2011, the government projected that it would end up paying for 30 per cent of the student loan book. That rate has since risen five times. It is now estimated at 54 per cent."
Your understanding of the backstop is beyond flawed.
If the EU agree to a technical solution for the Irish border great for Boris, if not Boris will go to No Deal on 31st October showing floating voters No Deal was his last resort to ensure Bexit.
It is win win for Boris
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1164787651280457729?s=21
I don't believe any free adult citizens should not have the vote.
Nevertheless I agree with the general position that Bozo is getting his widely expected honeymoon and people are trusting him, at the moment, to deliver on his extravagant promises. The honeymoon itself is no longer gathering speed; people are watching and waiting.
But if we on this forum aim to take a more detached view, I would say Ireland is correct that on balance it's better for
Northern Ireland to have an enforced sea border than a land border should the UK as a whole diverge from the EU. For practical reasons and reasons of visibility - there are ferry controls already on the sea border. Neither border might desirable - I would argue that - but if the UK is going to create a de facto hard border with the EU through divergence, it's better for Northern Ireland if it's the sea border. People in Northern Ireland agree with me, by a big margin.
State x voters get to vote, state y voters get to vote. If the elected representatives of state y refuse a deal there is no deal, state x's government will need to make state y want a deal.
No I do not believe that 52% can remove the voting rights for the 48%, which is why the backstop is unacceptable to me even if a majority of NI backs it.
Leaving the EU may remove rights you currently have but it doesn't remove any fundamental rights. You maintain [unless the backstop goes ahead] the right to set the laws that apply to you etc, etc, etc same as free citizens of any free country.
Even East Ham is not without its charm on a fine sunny morning. The group of drunks down by the War Memorial looked almost serene as I walked past on my way to get the Racing Post for day 3 of the Ebor meeting. I fancy BATTAASH to lay his York demons and beat TEN SOVEREIGNS in the Nunthorpe but I'm not getting involved financially.
The different interpretations and spin put on the Prime Minister's visit to Paris illustrate the deep and damaging polarisation of opinion and expectation. I'm no fan of Johnson but he's certainly keeping himself in trim rushing around doing this and meeting that but all new Prime Ministers are the same - it's almost a rite of passage to visit the extremities of the UK in the first week (just in case people in Truro and Stornaway hadn't heard we had a new PM - it's like something out of the 18th Century) and then to look busy on the world stage (May did exactly the same so the more things change, the more they do stay the same).
Interesting to see the Redwood tweet that the backstop isn't the only thing wrong with the WA and it's been an enormous red herring that resolving the backstop issue will somehow make the WA palatable to all. The only Deal in town is No Deal and so the political manoeuvring will now begin - Boris will want his election and his majority in the bag either before 31/10 or before the impacts of No Deal reach the public or he will have to hope his preservation will be confirmed by the disunity of his opponents on which many PMs in the past have also relied.
If they don't apply to you then not voting in European elections will be as rational as not voting in US Federal elections - are you upset you can't vote in their elections?
I want you to not be subject to the European Parliament. The issue with the backstop is that you will be subject to the Parliament but not get the right to vote in those elections. That I object to. That is undemocratic and unacceptable. Make sense yet?
https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1164663794402041862?s=20
If democracy is NOT getting what you want all the time than a reversal of Brexit is not undemocratic if proved untenable, especially if the Brexit That Was Promised is not the Brexit we're getting.
What is the difference between a right and a fundamental right?
Yet Boris is right to stick to trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop which passed the Commons unlike the Withdrawal Agreement as is which was voted down by the Commons 3 times.
The Brady amendment is the only Brexit option to have passed the Commons with EUref2 and revoke also being voted down by the Commons in the indicative votes
Amazing article in the NS - who rightly attack academia, academics, education as big business, politicians, money led systems, anti-intellectualism, students and immoral wishful thinking in equal measure.
The fires in the Amazon in Brazil and neighbouring countries as plotted on a chart on Sky news are frightening
I do not normally comment on climate change but like Brexit I accept the science but are more moderate in how we adapt over the next few decades
However, the Amazonian fires are a reminder to everyone to treat our planet and all those living on it, including all animals, with respect and concern and I am pleased Macron is raising it at the G7 this weekend
So how did Trump get to be nomiated the last time? Well the establishment candidates were all fighting it out between themselves and Trump with his anti-establishment republicanism was consistently coming 1st or second. by the rime it was down to just 2 candidates he was the front runner and Cruz eventually dropped out.
The danger to Trump is if there is exactly one other contender, whom the
"Establishment Republicans" can unite behind. If one contender encourages others to throw their hat in the ring then I would expect Trump to be nominated again.
The UK wants its to set its own laws and standards independently. However it also doesn't want a hard border.
Usually when you have two countries with different laws and standards you have a border to stop people bringing in things that are legal in one country and illegal in another. So if you don't want a border, you have to give up the ability to set laws and standards independently, as EU countries do.
The UK says it can work out clever ways to avoid the need for this, but it's vague about the practical details, and the EU side isn't convinced they really can or will. They've probably long suspected that the actual goal is to try to force Ireland to diverge from the EU, align its regulations with the UK and increase the impact of its border with the EU, which someone on the UK side recently blurted out.
So the EU's order of preference is:
1) Clever vague thing the British say they can do really working
2) Align NI, border in the Irish Sea
3) Align NI+UK
4) None of this, resulting in an adminstrative clusterfuck and/or Irish divergence from the EU
Hard border probably comes in above or below (4), depending who in the EU we're talking about.
The WA says:
* Do (1) if you can produce something workable, with independent arbitration if you say your plans are workable and we say they're not
* Failing that, since the DUP nixed (2), (3)
This isn't particularly ungenerous to the UK, IMHO.
Remember Trump and Cruz combined got almost 70% of the Republican primary vote in 2016 as Boris did in the Tory membership vote this summer
I do believe it to be a fundamental human right. All free adult citizens should have the right without qualification. If we are in the backstop and subject to European Parliament laws how do we vote for MEPs for that?
After battering the backstop for cleaving one part of the UK from the rest, she then managed to see no contradiction in Priti Patel's statement that in the event of no deal, FOM would end on 31st Oct while the CTA would remain in place allowing the whole population of Eastern Europe to decamp to that part of the UK via Dublin.
Brexiteers, eh?
Millenials are due to end up paying for their degrees twice. Once when taxed as a loan and then again when the writeoffs are sent back to the taxpayer, which in 20 years time will be their generation again.
We do not elect judges. They also set our laws.