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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP the least liked party and LAB move to 8pc lead with TN

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  • Kevin Maguire tweets: All policy work in Miliband's office is suspended. He's on Desert Island Discs a week Sunday. Got to get right those records.

    There was policy work? I guess it depends on what you call 'policy'....

    10th Avenue Freeze Out will be one pick
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Grangemouth.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited November 2013
    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Stuff can sometimes take a while to feed through - there can often be a sort of 'delayed echo' effect methinks.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    35% of people saying they would never vote LD is a bit sad. It rather suggests that they view their allegiance as a brand thing rather than making a decision on the policies presented.

    Obviously that's something we all partly do. If the Tories came up with something truly daft then I'd certainly think harder before I condemned it out of hand than I would if Labour did - that's of course natural in that they have a record of being more in tune with my thinking than Labour. However I wouldn't hesitate for a moment to vote for whoever was next closest to my views if the Tories had some policy that I simply couldn't vote for.

    Given that the LDs are a pretty middle of the road bunch its quite hard to see why so many people might rule them out completely.

    The fact that UKIP has become such a polarising brand is also pretty strange. I don't believe for a moment that the 43% are steadfast pro-Europeans.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:



    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Stuff can sometimes take a while to feed through - there can often be a sort of 'delayed echo' effect methinks.
    I think people are often too quick to attribute polling movements to the latest political narrative which will largely tend to have passed most people by (not saying that specifically applies here but it is something that happens a lot).
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    edited November 2013
    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Was there ever a real narrowing? Or was it just random fluctuations, particularly around and after the conference season?

    Consider YouGov (Sunday Times)...

    Date ConLead
    8 Nov -5
    1 Nov -9
    25 Oct -6
    18 Oct -6
    11 Oct -5
    4 Oct -5
    27 Sep -11
    20 Sep -4
    13 Sep -5
    6 Sep -4
    31 Aug -10
    23 Aug -6
    An ongoing average of around -6, and a few outliers, both before and after October.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Neil said:

    The recent ICM poll showed that 39% of 2010 Lib Dem voters now intend to vote Labour at the next election. So let's look at the 2010 GE result from, I don't know, Sheffield Hallam

    Before backing a Lab gain in Sheffield Hallam with hard cash I would (a) listen to Mark Senior on how to interpret the poll and (b) look at local election results in the constituency since 2010.
    I won't be backing it with hard cash as I never bet. I said at the start I was being mischievous. The question is why the Lib Dems are holding up so well in some areas and completely collapsing in others? As for local elections, I wonder how much of it is down to councillors relying on their own reputation and disassociating themselves from the coalition. I remember a guy fro University who voted Lib Dem because they had done a good job on Sheffield council. They only have one parliamentary seat there however.
  • Labour's NHS in Wales in the 6 o'clock news....not in a good way....Labour spokesman not available.".
  • Next said:

    "Lord Ashcroft believes the Lib Dem vote is holding up best where they are incumbents and fighting Tories."

    It's also the case that the number of 2010 Lib Dems now falling into the "haven't made up my mind" category seems to be slowly rising.

  • Labour's NHS in Wales in the 6 o'clock news....not in a good way....Labour spokesman not available.".

    Every time I mention the NHS in Wales, and education for that matter, the likes of Tim, twobobajob, the fifth former, IOS and BupaRoger steadfast ignore me.

    Obviously the truth hurts.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The question is why the Lib Dems are holding up so well in some areas and completely collapsing in others?

    They are generally holding on where they already have MPs (with notable exceptions such as large parts of Scotland) and not where they dont. There are some obvious reasons why that might be the case but from a betting perspective you just have to be clear whether results since 2010 put a particular LD seat in the former category or latter.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Because you aren't looking at the full picture.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    It's blatantly obvious the tories fortunes are being dictated by the kippers and how their VI moves.

    Little Eds amusing fan club don't seem to have grasped that all his energy posturing did nothing noteworthy to improve labour's VI position and as can be clearly seen is still basically flatlining as it has been since the May local elections. Yes there's been a tiny move up of maybe a point or so lately but absolutely nothing like the fireworks the labour spinners would have you believe.

    The movement has all been in the kippers and tory VI and it is crystal clear. This was the low ebb for the kippers between the May locals and the European elections to come in May. Guess where their vote is starting to creep now and which direction the tory vote will go if the trend continues?


    Little Ed is relying on Farage doing his work for him which is just as well considering how witless his fan club are about issues like Falkirk. It's just as amusing watching out of touch labour idiots screech cluelessly about Falkirk as it is watching out of touch tories.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    Who can forget the day of Daves Awesome Europe speech

    On some days PB's comments can be a particularly special read. That was one of them.
  • Cameron on the 6pm news making the point that the decision to hold CHOGM in Sri Lanka was made in 2009.....under a Labour government..".
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I think Miliband demands CLegg's head in any deal though...

    As a potential small Labour piece of the jigsaw, I don't care who leads the LibDems in a potential coalition - if we need them as partners and they agree reasonable terms on policies, they can have anyone they like to help implement them.

    You've just won a place on LAbour's team negotiating the next coalition agreement.

    It would be so much preferable for Miliband to have his rose garden moment with someone other than Clegg. Every government could do with a bit of a honeymoon. Forming a coalition with someone as unpopular as Clegg would get the government off on the wrong foot. Clegg is toxic and Miliband knows it.
  • R0bertsR0berts Posts: 391

    Neil said:

    The recent ICM poll showed that 39% of 2010 Lib Dem voters now intend to vote Labour at the next election. So let's look at the 2010 GE result from, I don't know, Sheffield Hallam

    Before backing a Lab gain in Sheffield Hallam with hard cash I would (a) listen to Mark Senior on how to interpret the poll and (b) look at local election results in the constituency since 2010.
    I won't be backing it with hard cash as I never bet. I said at the start I was being mischievous. The question is why the Lib Dems are holding up so well in some areas and completely collapsing in others? As for local elections, I wonder how much of it is down to councillors relying on their own reputation and disassociating themselves from the coalition. I remember a guy fro University who voted Lib Dem because they had done a good job on Sheffield council. They only have one parliamentary seat there however.
    I'm honestly not having a go here, but generally I'm surprised at the number of posters here who say that don't ever bet.

    I'm hardly a hardcore punter, but I do like a dabble every now and then, which I think might be how I first came across Political, er, Betting.com.
  • R0bertsR0berts Posts: 391
    Len McCluskey.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I think Miliband demands CLegg's head in any deal though...

    As a potential small Labour piece of the jigsaw, I don't care who leads the LibDems in a potential coalition - if we need them as partners and they agree reasonable terms on policies, they can have anyone they like to help implement them.

    Yes - but will Ed Balls work with David Laws in the treasury ;) ?
    Balls would be a better chancellor if he could draw upon the experience of the LDs. As, somehow, he doesn't seem to really do as well as you might expect when on his own in the spotlight it might actually be better for him if he did have some help. My theory on EdB is that he has developed a streak of honesty and realworldliness. He realises how deceitful some of the statements he made in the past were, and realises that the coalition is really doing a reasonable (and very tough) job of working the country out of the black hole that he was partly responsible for.

    Zippy said it best.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Because you aren't looking at the full picture.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    It's blatantly obvious the tories fortunes are being dictated by the kippers and how their VI moves.

    Little Eds amusing fan club don't seem to have grasped that all his energy posturing did nothing noteworthy to improve labour's VI position and as can be clearly seen is still basically flatlining as it has been since the May local elections. Yes there's been a tiny move up of maybe a point or so lately but nothing like the fireworks the labour spinners would have you believe.

    The movement has all been in the kippers and tory VI and it is crystal clear. This was the low ebb for the kippers between the May locals and the European elections to come in May. Guess where their vote is starting to creep now and which direction the tory vote will go if the trend continues?


    Little Ed is relying on Farage doing his work for him which is just as well considering how witless his fan club are about issues like Falkirk. It's just as amusing watching out of touch labour idiots screech cluelessly about Falkirk as it is watching out of touch tories.
    How are those independence VI polls going ;) ?
  • R0bertsR0berts Posts: 391
    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Because you aren't looking at the full picture.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    It's blatantly obvious the tories fortunes are being dictated by the kippers and how their VI moves.

    Little Eds amusing fan club don't seem to have grasped that all his energy posturing did nothing noteworthy to improve labour's VI position and as can be clearly seen is still basically flatlining as it has been since the May local elections. Yes there's been a tiny move up of maybe a point or so lately but absolutely nothing like the fireworks the labour spinners would have you believe.

    The movement has all been in the kippers and tory VI and it is crystal clear. This was the low ebb for the kippers between the May locals and the European elections to come in May. Guess where their vote is starting to creep now and which direction the tory vote will go if the trend continues?


    Little Ed is relying on Farage doing his work for him which is just as well considering how witless his fan club are about issues like Falkirk. It's just as amusing watching out of touch labour idiots screech cluelessly about Falkirk as it is watching out of touch tories.
    Tories and UKIP bouncing a few points off each other, Labour pretty solid in the high 30s. Been like that for ages, hasn't it?

    What Ed's energy wheeze (amongst other things, Syria, the Daily Mail) has probably done is harden his current majority-winning coalition of support.
  • Labour's NHS in Wales in the 6 o'clock news....not in a good way....Labour spokesman not available.".

    Every time I mention the NHS in Wales, and education for that matter, the likes of Tim, twobobajob, the fifth former, IOS and BupaRoger steadfast ignore me.

    Obviously the truth hurts.
    NHS Wales waiting times more than double in six months

    Opposition parties have claimed the NHS in Wales is in "crisis" and is a "national disgrace".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24938886
  • Mr. Roberts, the number of punters here has declined since 2007, which is a slight shame. It's also become more tribal since then, alas.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeL said:

    UKPR graph updated today - Lab lead has clearly widened over the last month.

    What seems surprising to me is that the lead narrowed to its lowest point around 15th October - ie well after the Miliband energy freeze announcement.

    So the widening of the lead in the last month doesn't appear to be down to energy - unless it's just that there was a delayed reaction - ie it took approx a month for the energy effect to feed through.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Because you aren't looking at the full picture.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    It's blatantly obvious the tories fortunes are being dictated by the kippers and how their VI moves.

    Little Eds amusing fan club don't seem to have grasped that all his energy posturing did nothing noteworthy to improve labour's VI position and as can be clearly seen is still basically flatlining as it has been since the May local elections. Yes there's been a tiny move up of maybe a point or so lately but nothing like the fireworks the labour spinners would have you believe.

    The movement has all been in the kippers and tory VI and it is crystal clear. This was the low ebb for the kippers between the May locals and the European elections to come in May. Guess where their vote is starting to creep now and which direction the tory vote will go if the trend continues?


    Little Ed is relying on Farage doing his work for him which is just as well considering how witless his fan club are about issues like Falkirk. It's just as amusing watching out of touch labour idiots screech cluelessly about Falkirk as it is watching out of touch tories.
    How are those independence VI polls going ;) ?
    Variable but certainly not pointing to a yes vote yet. To be fair they are little different to the polling we had months before 2011 showing a scottish labour lead in double figures. That's certainly not what happened on polling day, to say the least. Thank goodness SLAB don't have the same team working on the referendum that they did on that. Oh that's right, they do. Even down to Iain Gray. ;)

    SLAB's complacency is legendary as we just saw with their hapless handling of the bedroom tax vote.

  • Labour's NHS in Wales in the 6 o'clock news....not in a good way....Labour spokesman not available.".

    Every time I mention the NHS in Wales, and education for that matter, the likes of Tim, twobobajob, the fifth former, IOS and BupaRoger steadfast ignore me.

    Obviously the truth hurts.
    NHS Wales waiting times more than double in six months

    Opposition parties have claimed the NHS in Wales is in "crisis" and is a "national disgrace".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24938886
    Now someone else has helped me in my quest to bring this scandal to the fore, perhaps we can have a response from the usual suspects.
  • F1: Hulkenberg does not have a deal with Lotus, but might do:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/sauber/motorsport/story/134983.html

    If he had a definite seat there next year, he would have taken up the seat for the last two races. Slightly depressing that Lotus still haven't sorted their money out, given they've done a deal with Quantum.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913
    Totally off topic I wonder if I can ask a question about how many employees a political party might have?

    Essentially I'd like to know if an MPs local election agents are full-time, and whether there are similar employees that support councillors and the like.

    Does every labour MP for example have a full-time local representative, and would a labour councillor have such a thing, or part of such a thing?

    I'd also be interested in any observations as to how this may have changed over time.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Now someone else has helped me in my quest to bring this scandal to the fore, perhaps we can have a response from the usual suspects.

    (Partial) Devolution at work.

    Imagine the benefits of full devo.....

    Bev.


  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited November 2013

    Next said:

    "Lord Ashcroft believes the Lib Dem vote is holding up best where they are incumbents and fighting Tories."

    It's also the case that the number of 2010 Lib Dems now falling into the "haven't made up my mind" category seems to be slowly rising.

    Incorrect it has been steady for quite some time at around 25-30 % . Edit - looking back to ICM November 2012 poll the figure was 38% so it is in fact falling gradually .
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Neil said:

    The jury is out on whether Blunkett is to the left or right of Powell.

    As long as he is a card-carrying member of the left, nothing else matters. Like the Papal Indulgences of the 16th Century, believers are absolved from all wrong.... unless they are caught.

    Indeed, Miss C (and welcome back/post more).

    Thank you MD. It has been a while....

    Bev.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013
    R0berts said:

    Tories and UKIP bouncing a few points off each other, Labour pretty solid in the high 30s. Been like that for ages, hasn't it?

    Not even close. It's remarkable how anyone can possibly deny the clear correlation shown.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Big surge in UKIP VI going up to May with a corresponding fall in tory VI. After May kipper VI falls and tory VI correspondingly rises in lockstep. Nor is it anywhere near the first time both parties vote seem reliant on each others fortunes as you can trace it back easily to Osbrowne's omnishambles. That's where the tory and labour vote really decoupled because after the initial tory drop of the omnishambles and labour rise labour's vote then starts to drop too. The kippers aren't just taking from the tories but they are easily the lions share.

    The VI that is easiest to read is of course the lib dems which is as hopeless as it was since Calamity Clegg's tanked it way back in 2010. It's also where labour was first gifted their lead. Little Ed has done very little to significantly change labour VI. Which to be fair is the fate of most oppositions but it also leads to the current overestimation of just how effective he is.
  • F1: all the timings are late due to the timezone, so my pieces will be up in the evenings, rather than the mornings.

    Same will apply to Interlagos, of course.

    Also, it appears McLaren gave Perez 2 days' notice of his departure. I really don't like that sort of thing. When Bourdais and Alguersuari were axed by Toro Rosso it was so late and with so little notice neither was able to secure another seat for the next season.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Labour moves to an 8 point lead from 2 points.

    Clearly, it's the Falkirk effect again !!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Mick_Pork said:

    R0berts said:

    Tories and UKIP bouncing a few points off each other, Labour pretty solid in the high 30s. Been like that for ages, hasn't it?

    Not even close. It's remarkable how anyone can possibly deny the clear correlation shown.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Big surge in UKIP VI going up to May with a corresponding fall in tory VI. After May kipper VI falls and tory VI correspondingly rises in lockstep. Nor is it anywhere near the first time both parties vote seem reliant on each others fortunes as you can trace it back easily to Osbrowne's omnishambles. That's where the tory and labour vote really decoupled because after the initial tory drop of the omnishambles and labour rise labour's vote then starts to drop too. The kippers aren't just taking from the tories but they are easily the lions share.

    The VI that is easiest to read is of course the lib dems which is as hopeless as it was since Calamity Clegg's tanked it way back in 2010. It's also where labour was first gifted their lead. Little Ed has done very little to significantly change labour VI. Which to be fair is the fate of most oppositions but it also leads to the current overestimation of just how effective he is.
    I wonder whether too much weighting is given to the omnishambles budget. It should be remembered that things were getting gradually worse for the Tories in 2011 before Cameron pulled off his 'veto' moment and had a mini surge in the polls. I always wondered whether it would last since Cameron was not in a position to deliver much, so I always thought the decline in Tory support in the first half of 2012 was veto surge unwind.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Cameron on the 6pm news making the point that the decision to hold CHOGM in Sri Lanka was made in 2009.....under a Labour government..".

    That is a poor excuse. No one forced him to go. Three PM's did not go.

  • Incorrect it has been steady for quite some time at around 25-30 % . Edit - looking back to ICM November 2012 poll the figure was 38% so it is in fact falling gradually .

    Back In February (the peak of labour's polling) the don't knows were 21.86%. last 7 polls it is 25.5%

    Labour's percentage taken has dropped from 38.6% to 34.1%
    UKIPs is up from 5.4% to 7.6%
    Tories up from 9.42% to 12.29%


  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Labour's NHS in Wales in the 6 o'clock news....not in a good way....Labour spokesman not available.".

    Every time I mention the NHS in Wales, and education for that matter, the likes of Tim, twobobajob, the fifth former, IOS and BupaRoger steadfast ignore me.

    Obviously the truth hurts.
    You mean Labour's lead on the NHS and Education in Wales would have been even higher ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,913

    Neil said:

    The jury is out on whether Blunkett is to the left or right of Powell.

    As long as he is a card-carrying member of the left, nothing else matters. Like the Papal Indulgences of the 16th Century, believers are absolved from all wrong.... unless they are caught.

    Indeed, Miss C (and welcome back/post more).

    Thank you MD. It has been a while....

    Bev.

    I agree, but I'm actually quite happy that Blunkett (or at least someone) enjoys such an indulgence. He's given expression to a difficult question. With regard to race, religion, and disability it has almost become impossible to phrase questions, let alone form answers. All that happens is that minorities are quietly excluded.

    Indulgences were I think given almost exclusively to those that had been caught. Another wheel-barrow-full of indulgences for Mr Dancer would be the call !

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Eric.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    surbiton said:

    Cameron on the 6pm news making the point that the decision to hold CHOGM in Sri Lanka was made in 2009.....under a Labour government..".

    That is a poor excuse. No one forced him to go. Three PM's did not go.
    Should we stop paying cricket against Sri Lanka?
  • surbiton said:

    Labour moves to an 8 point lead from 2 points.

    Clearly, it's the Falkirk effect again !!

    What, claiming people intend to vote Labour despite them not knowing about it?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Unite.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Falkirk.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Mornington Crescent.
  • surbiton said:

    Labour's NHS in Wales in the 6 o'clock news....not in a good way....Labour spokesman not available.".

    Every time I mention the NHS in Wales, and education for that matter, the likes of Tim, twobobajob, the fifth former, IOS and BupaRoger steadfast ignore me.

    Obviously the truth hurts.
    You mean Labour's lead on the NHS and Education in Wales would have been even higher ?
    You really haven't got a clue have you
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Bobajob said:

    Mornington Crescent.

    You cannot go directly there, you have to go along the Miliband-Hollande line.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699


    Incorrect it has been steady for quite some time at around 25-30 % . Edit - looking back to ICM November 2012 poll the figure was 38% so it is in fact falling gradually .
    Back In February (the peak of labour's polling) the don't knows were 21.86%. last 7 polls it is 25.5%

    Labour's percentage taken has dropped from 38.6% to 34.1%
    UKIPs is up from 5.4% to 7.6%
    Tories up from 9.42% to 12.29%




    2010 LD voters saying Don't Know or Won't Vote - ICM polls 2013

    Jan 28%
    Feb 24%
    Mar 32%
    Apr 32%
    May 28%
    June 43%
    July 18%
    Aug 37%
    Sept 27%
    Oct 32%
    Nov 27%
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited November 2013

    I wonder whether too much weighting is given to the omnishambles budget. It should be remembered that things were getting gradually worse for the Tories in 2011 before Cameron pulled off his 'veto' moment and had a mini surge in the polls. I always wondered whether it would last since Cameron was not in a position to deliver much, so I always thought the decline in Tory support in the first half of 2012 was veto surge unwind.

    It's wise to point to the minisurge of the EU flounce that wasn't. What you can be certain it did was to focus matters right on to the European agenda at a point where the kippers were certainly stronger than they were before 2010 but at around 5% by no means the threat they are now. So when the Veto flounce unwound on top of Osbrowne's omnishambles the kipper VI broke through with unhappy tories jumping on board and their rise only stopped after the May locals this year where it finally begun to fall back.

    So it was a double whammy of first one of the kippers core issues being given rocket fuel by inept EU posturing then the omnishambles which just gave discontented tories on the right an obvious place to go.

    The labour rise at the omnishambles cannot be dismissed however. It's a safe bet a good number of floating voters jumped ship to labour after the omnishambles. Those kind of floating voters were unlikely to be vastly concerned by the EU flounce but economic competence and some of them will have drifted back by now. Quite possibly during early 2013 if you look at the graph.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Omnium said:

    Indulgences were I think given almost exclusively to those that had been caught. Another wheel-barrow-full of indulgences for Mr Dancer would be the call !

    I think that was the official policy. The scandal was that if you had enough money you could buy eternal salvation. It rather sounds like political party funding these days.

    Oh well.... what goes round, comes round....

    :-O

    Bev.



  • 2010 LD voters saying Don't Know or Won't Vote - ICM polls 2013

    Jan 28%
    Feb 24%
    ---------------------------------
    Mar 32%
    Apr 32%
    May 28%
    June 43%
    July 18%
    Aug 37%
    Sept 27%
    Oct 32%
    Nov 27%

    So, ICM and Yougov disagree.....

    8 out of 9 higher than in Feb 2013. Excellent.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Falkirk Sri Lanka Mitchell Coulson Brookes Ashcroft Ashcroft Unite

    HOUSE !
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2013

    I love OGH spin perspective:

    There’s little doubt that if party wants to be liked then it’s better to be in opposition.

    So much nicer than "The Lib Dems are more toxic than the Tories"


    Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative. - Oscar Wilde
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2013

    Max said: "It's because leftism is like a religion to some people. ..... People on the left are the least open minded I have ever come across"

    And rules are different for them than for others - Enoch Powell does a "Blood in the streets" speech and is vilified for decades. David Blunkett does a "Blood in streets (Sheffield)" speech and gets support from Nick Clegg.

    Hmm.....

    If Powell had been able to spread bet on the accuracy of his forecasts against the predictions of those who accused him of exaggerating he would have cleaned up year on year...

    Just imagine if he had been around to hear Labours back of a fag packet guesses in 2004!

  • DavidL said:

    The Dean of the Faculty of Advocates (my great leader) Richard Keen QC has just announced that he is to stand down in January and become chairman of the Conservative party in Scotland.
    An interesting move and perhaps indicative that someone thinks the tories might get a majority in the next election.

    I can loyally and honestly say he has been an excellent Dean. As a debater he is so many levels above the level of public discourse in Scotland as to be absurd. It will be interesting to see what he can do.

    Isn't that an office which usually functions as a hereditament of the Hope dynasty?

    No.

    It is a proper job, roughly equivalent to the Chairman of the Bar of England and Wales (Maura McGowan QC), not a symbolic post.
  • See all the lefties have disappeared, are they waiting instruction from HQ over the Wales disaster.
  • Off Topic, but I found this interesting
    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/14/behind-the-scenes-labour-hq-is-in-tumult/#more-17488

    Which echoes what was hinted at earlier today by the carefully neutral Don Hodges.
  • See all the lefties have disappeared, are they waiting instruction from HQ over the Wales disaster.

    Er! Mr. Engerlund,

    If I may be so presumptuous, wot are you warbling about.

    Nobody asks you how many emails, phone calls and texts you get from CCO do they.

    (Do you like my attempt at Thames Engerlish?)
This discussion has been closed.