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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself
In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition.
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If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.
If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.
But why should have Boris, “of all people, realised the folly of making promises you know you cannot keep”?
He had never knowingly kept a promise and like many in the British establishment, keeps failing upwards.
The driver [Boris] wanted to continue straight ahead but it is too late anyway, to swerve across three lanes of traffic now would be disruptive, dangerous and he's reasonably able to say no I'm not going to do that.
The passengers have gone along with the ride until it was past the point of changing direction. Not reasonable to expect Boris to change direction then when he doesn't want to or need to. The law stands, we exit 31 October.
I doubt he's thought it through. I expect Cummings has and is happy to "game" No Deal by filibustering until 31st October, after which the world will change.
One thing I'm not sure has been touched on is the possibility another law is passed by Parliament compelling him to seek an extension, immediately before they then pass a VoNC to force an election. That could be one way out, and he could just shrug and blame Parliament. But it requires a lot of coordination.
By the way, I owe you an unreserved apology for how I spoke to you on here the other day. I let my frustrations get the better of me and took them out on you. It was totally uncalled for and I apologise unreservedly: I'm sorry.
It won't happen again.
Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
Parliament rejected the deal.
Parliament rejected the deal again.
Parliament rejected the deal again.
Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.
Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jeremy-corbyn-will-tell-queen-were-taking-over-if-boris-johnson-loses-power-over-no-deal-brexit-3kf6xw2bd
An interesting piece though I'm not sure I wholly agree. As we saw last time, Governments can and do use elections to fly kites for controversial legislation as manifesto proposals to be enacted if they are re-elected.
I've now seen November 1st mooted as a GE date so the day after we leave the EU presumably without a WA so a sense of national euphoria (for some) but too early to see the economic impacts hitting home. Indeed, with many postal votes going in before 31/10, those anticipating No Deal can safely vote knowing Boris can't or won't renege.
IF the economic consequences are as deleterious as many believe, the re-elected Johnson Government will have a very early mid-term slump but presumably the CCHQ calculations are there will be plenty of time for the economic storm to pass and for the good times to roll before a 2024 GE though were Johnson then to be facing a new centrist Labour leader that would be a very different contest.
We are a long way from that but September will be crunch time for those opposed to No Deal. I expect the EU to offer a new extension which Johnson will reject but that may be challenged on the floor of the Commons. Presumably, if compelled by the Commons to agree to a new extension, Johnson would resign and call a GE on a "only I can end the Brexit nightmare" ticket.
As ComRes pointed out, calling the GE before 31/10 is much riskier for Johnson than calling it in the immediate aftermath of departure so I can see why 1/11 is entering GE date calculations but there's an awful lot of water to go under those bridges yet.
I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period
Contrary to what I thought at first the opposition parties should hold their fire. The more people are seeing the smirking buffoon the less they are seeing him as a serious player.
By the time parliament reconvenes his days will be numbered. So let it be.
Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.
Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
By my maths that is the very first Thursday available to us now if we follow the FTPA to its logical conclusion. It can't be an earlier Thursday than that. So Parliament made that decision not Boris.
DavidL said:
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The comment made to me at the time was Better Together is where Labour stalwarts taught Tories how to fight an election and win, something they had long since forgotten. There was undoubtedly some truth in that but describing it as a "Tory plot" or an "elephant trap" is a bit silly.
The nasties took advantage of the dumb Labour party, who were easily taken in fuelled by their hatred of the SNP. They are reaping their just rewards.
Actually, a falling pound makes a UK holiday more expensive too, due to inflationary pressures, even if these are modest at present.
No Parliament can bind its successors, so if a future Parliament wishes to rejoin after we have left that is their prerogative. However if we leave on 31 October, even during an election campaign, that is due to the LAW that Parliament has passed.
We are long past the last zebra crossing before the exit. That is the point. Parliament could have passed a deal, Parliament could have changed the FTPA, Parliament could have called an earlier election. It hasn't. Game Over.
On-topic: as many have said, Boris Johnson is a daft sod.
Grieve is the father of No Deal.
Actually I said, “terrible” and I should have said “disappointing”. Kent is supposed to be the garden of England after all.
South Devon is wonderful and the food is better, yes, although Sidmouth (for example) is the sort of place that annoys me - tatty and full of people on mobility scooters.
Never been to North Yorkshire. It’s on the bucket list.
Likewise the allegations that J R-M's investment business has a client base of largely Russian beneficial owners, which having met him in a previous life, I believe to be true.
Incidentally the failure of the Ba.com website is exactly the kind of effect that we have been warned about concerning Russian cyber attacks. My long term connection with Estonia gives me a different perspective, but I am increasingly worried at the extremely casual approach that the UK is taking to its own security vis-a-vis the declared campaign of propaganda and subversion (and murder) that the Kremlin has been undertaking against Britain.
Russian hybrid aggression against the UK has been going on for some time, yet the media - with honorable exceptions- seem strangely uninterested.
Why?
The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.
Apart from Cummings, there is Lord Carlisle (who now runs some kind of freelance intelligence service), and various former MI5/MI6 apparatchiks.
Mostly lawyers though.
Only mentions in passing that all this is moot if an alternative PM has command of the House in the 14 days.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/moment-comes-boris-should-not-afraid-enlist-queens-help-foiling/
In that circumstance HMQ will tell Johnson, politely, to piss off.
"...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".
https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494
If the opposition wants a No Deal blocking bill they should become the government and put their own name to that. Labour has made it clear Corbyn is the only option.
So we are down to three options.
1: EU blinks, gives us a better deal, we leave with that.
2: EU does not blink, Parliament installs Corbyn.
3: EU does not blink, Parliament blinks, No Deal.
Cyclefree's idea that Boris will extend is a nonsense. If Parliament requires an extension it should send for Corbyn.
On the other hand maybe Rod Liddle is paid in hard currency - after all the patriotic Spectator is owned by residents of Monaco, which uses the Euro.
La Reyne le veult.
Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson-vote-leave-nigel-farage-a9045766.html
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1159391802450948097
But they are. And that is the fundamental problem.
And if we don't leave on October 31st Nigel will destroy the Tory party...
Talk about dragging the Queen into it!!! There is some precedent from 1708 apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/08/alaska-warmest-month-ever-july-2019-sea-ice
In many countries the Head of Government holds veto powers, in the UK those powers are held by the Queen but the Head of Government wields her powers.
If Parliament wants to pass the law, it can elect a new PM.
It ought to be deeply concerning that Russia is involved in social media manipulation (automated and human); that Russia has plans and weapons to disrupt communications cables and satellites; that it might even have agents (and does have useful idiots) at the highest level of western governments, including ours and America's. But it isn't.
DJL's first law of politics: things that ought to matter, often don't.
Mr. Thompson, the PM cannot veto what the Commons votes for. He isn't a consul in ancient Rome. If the Commons votes for something then for the monarch to refuse it, except in the most extreme circumstances such as abolishing elections, would be absolutely unacceptable, especially if advised to refuse to pass the approved bill by a man who had lost the vote.
The Lib Dems (and some Labour people) opposed the deal, and are now claiming no deal doesn't have a mandate, despite having voted for it to occur.
Please point me to the box I ticked that said 'Leave but only with a Deal'.
People were well aware that there was the possibility of leaving without a deal. It is only those who want to reverse the whole process who are rewriting history.
VONC in Johnson - Johnson loses
VOC in Corbyn - Corbyn loses
VOC in Clarke/Starmer/Benn etc - also loses
So Johnson ends up staying by default and we have an election.
Parliament has refused repeatedly to pass a deal, that is Parliament's choice. We have a little bit of time left, if the EU and the Government and Parliament can reach an agreement then we can pass a deal. Otherwise no deal is simply where we are.
If we can get a deal, great. If we can't that's disappointing. Either way we leave.
Please point me to the box I ticked that said 'Leave but only with a Deal'.
People were well aware that there was the possibility of leaving without a deal. It is only those who want to reverse the whole process who are rewriting history."
Why a box? The Vote Leave campaign made it clear over and over again that a deal would be simple.
It is extremely rare, but yes the PM retains the right [via Her Majesty] to veto. The Commons can override that veto by replacing the PM.