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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The economy might be recovering but new poll by Populus finds that only 11pc feel part of it
There’s a new survey out from Populus with a sample of 4,071 British adults, in which 44% said that the most important issue in determining their vote at GE2015 will be either the economy or the cost of living.
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So that's part one sorted.
What would be really worrying for the Tories would be if the voters were feeling the benefit of the recovery but still intended to vote Labour, but as it is there's still some reason for them to hope things will get better.
The suggestion from people who looked at polls of US presidential elections was that what really matters is the trajectory at the time of the election, so the government may be best not to peak too soon...
a) is unemployment rising or falling ?
b) Is the economy growing or contracting ?
I can't see the logic behind such a move, if it happens. If Driver X is moving to Lotus next year you can make a case for them getting the seat two races early. If not, the reserve driver, Valsecchi, certainly should get it (my understanding was that he was likeliest to get it). But why go for Kovalainen?
It's possible Lotus might spring a surprise, I've read they're looking at 4, not 2, drivers for 2014 now, but why him? Against Hamilton in the McLaren he was slaughtered. Hulkenberg's faster, Maldonado's more bank manager-pleasing.
"Who would you trust to fulfil your human right to generous benefits for doing naff all to you and your hard working family ?"
A. Post about the topic at least 40 times a day for the entire duration of the story and periodically for many months later, retweet every criticism from a journalistic source, repeatedly claim that Cameron's judgement has been called into question and mercilessly mock anyone who sought to question any element of the story as a "non-storyer" who is "always wrong"; or
B. Insist it is a non-story and belittle anyone who attemped to refer to it?
Whether or not the story impacts the polls (I have said before it is unlikely to do so) it is one that strikes at the heart of Labour's culture, practices and integrity and it is one you, as a supporter of Labour, should be concerned about. And even if you choose not to be publicly critical of Labour, which is fair enough, you might consider whether it should temper your approach when the shoe is on the other foot.
I wonder if the respondents were profiled by Public / Private sector.
As a non-cheesemaker (I assume, forgive me if I'm wrong on that), how would you act responsibly to ensure that you benefit from economic growth in that situation?
By going for Kovi, Lotus are getting a reasonable driver who has been out of race-driving for less than a season, and one who could well get a drive next year. It would not surprise me if they get him for free. And 'free' is a magic word in F1...
Isam said:
So that's Jack Straw, David Blunkett, a large percentage of Asian and black Britons, Eastern European immigrants living in Boston, and their descedents all acknowledging that mass immigration was a bad mistake and that integration is nigh on impossible...
Only the metropolitan luvvies, governments stats addicts, champagne quaffers, Latin speakers and people that refuse to acknowledge when they've lost arguments remain blind to what everybody else can see
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/13/jack-straw-labour-mistake-poles
Sam,have you seen this -
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/why-cant-labour-talk-sensibly-about-immigration/
@tykejohnno
At least as more non white, nonenglish people are complaining about the situation, there seems to be more Labour people willing to acknowledge the awful mistakes theymade.
it really does make the middle class luvvies who think criticising mass immigration is racist look stuck in the 20th century
I can identify with whatBlunkett said, Romford is the town next to me, plenty of woodland for campsites about... At least it's one way of coping with the housing crisis!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2300089/I-prison-holiday-Boast-Romanian-gang-conducted-1million-gold-robbery-campaign-tricking-way-jewellers-wearing-pinstripe-suits.html
Ed needs to be bit careful though, if he gets in power and can't do anything he promises - it will be another single term government! Maybe that's the way it is going to go our modern world? Will anyone be in power for multiple terms again?
But why wouldn't Lotus go for Valsecchi? He has less race experience than Kovalainen, but he does have better knowledge of the team and its car.
In other news, a higher % of the tax take is coming from those at the top.
Laffer has the last laugh.
Let's be honest, people like whingeing. And with 24 hour media nowadays, there's plenty of scope. I noticed that the fuel price has gone down a bit. Had it gone up by the same amount, there would be wall to wall wailing.
Ed has jumped on the wailing bandwagon. That's politics, what else can he do?
The task for David Cameron and George Osborne is to make sure the improvement is felt by the people who matter to them, the 11 million plus people who are likely to vote Tory in 2015. Frankly if they do that, it doesn't really matter what Miliband or Clegg supporters feel or think.
Public sector workers were more likely than private sector counterparts to argue that there is no sign of national economic recovery (46% and 37% respectively)
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/margaret-thatcher-and-the-missing-votes/
The whole of history since could have been different
The economy was growing strongly by 1996 too, with the Tories ahead on the economy metric.
Discounting "don't knows" the score is 50% believe there is a recovery, 50% don't.
I'm aware of the Lafferesque basis for the policy (as well as the only live study that's really been able to test Laffer principles - the New Jersey state tax study, which suggested that if a Laffer tipping point does exist it's csomewhere loser to 75% than 45% tax) but that's not really the point: most voters are not, and they don't see a tax cut for the rich as beneficial to either themselves or the public finances as a whole.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f07a690a-4ba0-11e3-8203-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2kXK3EyBf
Key quotes:
"Senior Labour party figures are under pressure from the UK’s most important European allies to say whether or not the party will hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
In a sign of growing European worries over a possible British exit from the union, diplomats from the biggest continental embassies, including Germany and France, have been holding meetings with Labour MPs and peers as they try to flesh out what the party will do if it wins the next election.
Several people close to the discussions have told the Financial Times the issue is one of major concern for European governments.
Some countries have warned Labour of the risks of holding a referendum, pointing out how they are difficult to predict – even in pro-European countries, as seen when French voters opposed the European constitution. One official said: “We don’t recommend referendums as a rule.”
"European powers are particularly worried that it would be harder for the pro-union side to win if it was being led by Labour, rather than the Conservatives.
Many foreign officials believe that if the Tories were in opposition they would campaign hard against EU membership, leaving a more difficult task for the “yes” campaign.
However, a “yes” campaign led by Mr Cameron after a possible renegotiation of powers between London and Brussels would be far more likely to win.
Lord Mandelson, Labour’s former business secretary and a prominent pro-European, is one of those who has been lobbied, as have others close to Ed Miliband, the party leader."
But, presumably "the cheesemakers" would have other industries that they relied upon to fuel their supergrowth such as dairy farmers, "cheesemaking" machinery manufacturers, and logistical support, and those industries would also get beneficial effects. "The cheesemakers" themselves would require financial and accountancy advice, PR and advertising.
If "cheesemaking" were that huge, the "cheese" would be big enough for the most resourceful to get a piece of it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24923951
As for Cameron and Co deleting speeches do they take us all for complete bloody fools.
Read my lips no Green Taxes...
Enjoy drowning in your whirlpool of self confirming hatred of anything outside your blinkered world view as you get sucked in and lost without trace. As time goes by millions of others will shed their blinkers or refuse to put them on in the first place.
Mostly from individuals, not companies.
(Labour, of course, get most of theirs from unions, with Unite leading the way).
This helps to explain why so far the Tories' recovery, although evident, has been somewhat modest and demonstrates just how much there is still to play for as the recovery takes further hold and is more generally recognised as being fact. Given that we are already several months down the path of recovery, this is likely to take some considerable time yet, depending on the media coverage it receives. Such a time frame probably suits Cameron & Co. since the party would clearly wish to avoid peaking too early.
We possibly need a poll which asks the question: "For which party would you be most likely to vote were the economic recovery to continue over the next [18] months?"
I don't know why they aren't going for Valsecchi. It'll be a trade-off between many different factors, and there's probably no right answer.
All I know is that I'll be glad to see more of Kovi around the paddock. He's only a mid-team driver at best, but he gives a good interview.
Once it's actually solidly happening then the challenge is to channel the warm feelings where they count.
For certain Dave n George will, under Lynton's guidance, be beavering away to ensure that as many core Tories and marginal waverers do start to feel it by May 2015.
It's all well and good Miliband pledging to freeze energy prices, but what will he do about petrol prices, water bills, mortgages, TV licence costs and most crucially mortgage interest rates?
An electricity price freeze is no good if the council tax or mortgage rate shoots up instead (unless you live in a council flat on benefits).
In my definition zealots who can only see good in their side and bad in the other(s).
Seems a fair enough definition in principle, but I'm not sure that it applies to the large numbers of not-particularly-well-off people who see a tax rate cut for those on "astronomical" incomes as evidence that this particular Tory leadership favours a small clique of the very rich. There are a lot of Tory voters who don't believe in the American Dream and know that however hard they work they will never be earning anything like £150k - so they don't see it as a policy for aspiration, but a bung to the rich.
I'm aware of the Lafferesque basis for the policy (as well as the only live study that's really been able to test Laffer principles - the New Jersey state tax study, which suggested that if a Laffer tipping point does exist it's csomewhere loser to 75% than 45% tax) but that's not really the point: most voters are not, and they don't see a tax cut for the rich as beneficial to either themselves or the public finances as a whole.
To answer a different question with the aim of getting to the right answer, I think heaven and earth need to be moved to rebalance the economy. The rich, super rich, filthy rich and obscenely rich have created a class that is repugnant and unjustified. There is a massive need to stop the easy merry go round of corporate excess and rewarded failure.
I would support a John Lewis regulation on limiting the maximum any one employee can earn to a multiplier of 'x'. Bonus payments too, they trader needs the cleaner and technician to work. There has been an unhealthy and accelerating trend from late 80s to 2008 of corporate greed, and I find it offensive as do millions of others.
before 2030, but there is no need to be so monodimensional, it is not about love of Tory (or Labour), it is about free thinking, which is an anathema to political ideologues like you.
this is not good for Labour as it resplits the left.
FWIW I think we're heading for another hung parliament and a right old mess with potentially Labour most MPs but Tories most votes, UKIP and LDs on similar(ish) vote shares but UKIP no MPs and nobody with a clear run at running the country. :-(
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24924185
If Cameron did brewing we all might be thirsty. For a PR man he is often remarkably shallow.
It is those who are parachuted-in and claim they deserve ridiculous salaries that p*** me off. If they think they are that good, then let them start their own enterprise.
(What's happened to Rod btw, anyone know?)
As much of the pain is deferred until post 2015, this prediction may well hold true for the 2015 administration rather than the 2010 government.
:innocent face:
FFS
Most people thought Andrew Mitchell called the police plebs. Most people thought he should resign. Only 8% of people believed that he hadn't used the word pleb.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/09/25/andrew-mitchells-plebs-comment/
I hope we get a poll telling us what most people think once the Met have finally finished their investigation.
The unemployment figures are pretty bloody amazing. Very impressive. Jobs growth across all sectors. The unemployment rate is still high, but the inactivity rate is the lowest it has been since 1991 which accounts for a lot of the higher figure than under Labour.
The immigration fear-mongers have taken another hit as well, UK nationals have taken 93% of the jobs created over the last year, with non-UK nationals (EU and non-EU) taking just 7% of jobs created. If this continues until the election UKIP will be in big trouble. I do feel there has been a concerted effort by a lot of employers to "hire British" recently to improve their public image. If that is true then it alone will deter continued immigration.
Thought experiment: assume half the countries (chosen at random) in the world decided to allow free movement of labour and capital, and the other half decided to impose restrictions on where people were allowed to live, and who people were allowed to work for, and who people were allowed to buy good and services from.
Which half of the world do you think would do better?
I know which one I'd bet on. And I think you know where all the smart people would want to be. I think the most creative and productive people relish competition, don't you?
It is at the following URL, as shown by Google (I have to use that as their website does not appear to have a search option).
http://www.labour.org.uk/gordon_brown_conference
And their 805 pages of news archive only seems to go back as far as Ed's conference, although it s hard to tell which one, as they are not dated.
At least some older speeches seems to be on there, but it appears to be well hidden from the site itself ...
Can we take it Labour are trying to hide the past as well?
This is not financial advice
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5% in September, against expectations for a 0.3% fall , which is clearly not very good. But industrial production, excluding construction, actually rose 1.1%, against expectations of flat. So, construction very weak, and everything else actually not bad.
The most scary number, though, was Retail Sales in the Netherlands, which dropped a barely credible 6.1% yoy in October, from a 0.7% drop in September.
Good news from the UK: jobless claims dropped 41,700 in October - much better than the 30,000 expected.
Can I ask you a question about the games industry, using Vanilla message system?
Thanks Philip
Market forces at work! Sure.
Expectations are for the recession to continue in Italy, while the Netherlands and France have broadly flat GDP. Germany and Austria are expected to grow GDP at around 0.3% quarterly rates. (Equivalent to 1-1.5% annual rates. Why anyone publishes QoQ numbers is a mystery to me.)
Europe is a stupid basket case because they have monetary unity without a political or fiscal union. It kills any kind of competitive market forces within the bloc and everyone must bow down to German austerity.
Guido implies more to come from Falkirk - a thousand emails takes a while to read.
http://order-order.com/2013/11/13/how-much-new-evidence-does-ed-need/#comments