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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks go
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks good value at 7/2
I may be committing a '@campbellclaret' error by sharing, but I care little!I'm a Labour Party member who is going canvassing to support @DoddsJane of the @WelshLibDems next week in her bid to win the #BreconandRadnorshireby-election.For me, it's #CountryBeforeParty #Remain pic.twitter.com/QtZE6TH72T
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This was going to be my Sunday thread.
Tipslapped?
Edited extra bit: I have put a little bit on.
No doubt there will be the usual foaming outrage against the elites from his supporters.
On-topic. I think some people are getting carried away. There is no such thing as an easy by-election win, especially not in a huge constituency like Brecon and Radnorshire. It's all about getting one more vote than the runner-up, and edging the Tory majority down to 0 in the HOC. Anything more is a bonus. Talk of 50+% seems fanciful to me.
Is Sunderland the new Nürnberg?
About 23 years ago, because I love my classics and history, I was very tempted to read Literae humaniores at Oxford, but I decided against it, because I wanted to do a degree with a definitive career pathway, now that's the degree our likely next PM read.
Though I'm still reeling from seeing a picture of OGH with a full head of hair.
Surely one for a classics enthusiast......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/stories-48770759?__twitter_impression=true
2. There is nothing more pointless than spoiling a ballot paper.
Acropolis Now, a Thrace saving option, The Greeks have lost their marbles, Greek banks at the centaur of attention, etc
Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.
Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter
We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now
Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration
We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in
It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end
Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.
(And please don't mention BMWs, you might trigger me. I took mine in for a routine service a couple of weeks ago, and asked them to check the wheel balancing as the car was juddering at speed. It wasn't the wheel balancing, but something wrong with the engine. In fact, it turns out it needs a completely new engine, at 44,000 miles. To be fair, BMW are stumping up the £12K for the actual engine, but I'm still looking at a hefty labour charge.)
Richmond Park was overwhelmingly Remain, whereas Brecon was in line with the country as a whole.
Whilst I suspect the Lib Dem ground game will yield differential turnout, they are generally in a stronger place than in 2016, and some will vote on a basis other than Brexit (e.g. casting a judgment on Davies' conduct leading to the by-election), the cap is probably lower than it was in Richmond Park.
Brexit makes by-elections rather different from the free hit of the past, where Lib Dems in particular sometimes got very swings indeed. In those days, it didn't really matter if you agreed with the Lib Dems - people just wanted to send a message. Now, their well known position on Brexit inevitably puts off as many as it attracts.
I am reminded of a Matthew Parris anecdote about the Crosby by-election, when he was canvassing for the Tories and the SDP candidate was Shirley Williams. At one door, a man forcefully said he was voting for Williams. Asked why, he said, "because I want to bring back hanging and the birch". When Parris patiently explained Shirley Williams was vehemently against those things, the man asked "so what's your candidate's position?" Parris explained the candidate was pretty tough on crime, but probably not to the extent of advocating "hangings and the birch", whereupon the chap said "well, I'm voting for Shirley then" and slammed the door. So that's the protest vote... but I just don't see many Brexiteers voting for Dodds on that basis in the current climate.
Although I am now plagued by the thought of hordes of blond Boris miniatures, speaking with Brummie accents.
That, as I said, is extraordinary, especially for someone who is seeking elected office themselves.
I'm off to rehearse my campaign speech...
Spoiling your ballot papers is a cowardly cop out.
Or of course have no further comment on the decision that is eventually made whatsoever. Even on PB!
>SandyRentool said:
Off topic: CLP AGM tonight. Yours truly is standing for an executive position...<
Good luck! I became CLP Chair last month (such power, and one so young). Gradually PB is taking over the Labour Party - like Momentum, but more secretive.
I'm thinking of giving a full 1,2,3,4 listing next time, in such a way that my tactical votes still count, but my point is made clear that I'm not impressed by this system, for the want of a little bit more counting.
- Chris Davies, Con
- Tomos Glyndwr Davies, Lab
- Jane Dodds, Lib Dems
- Des Parkinson, Brexit Party
- Liz Phillips, UKIP Make Brexit Happen
- Lady Lily the Pink, Monster Raving Loony
I will refrain from commenting that I've always thought there's a bit of the Parkinsons about the Brexit Party.After all this campaigning we have little idea what the true hunt position is on very much. He may have been pro hound anti fox to curry favour with niche electorate, but he didn’t shy away from being anti abortion.
When big g considered Boris over hunts hunting support people rightly said, here’s clear winner, tribes now rallying round him. Because truth is For all theology and ethics a case is not built upon one single verse or argument. A year ago Big G would never have contemplated voting for Boris. This Greasypole hungry charlatan cuddling up to the populist right is just not you. And to your credit, your honesty, that’s how it turned out.
If Pb was a bus, we were all on a bus, I’d slap the back of your chair right now.
That said, I agree it isn't a total waste of time. If none of the candidates is adequate, at least by spoiling you ballot your abstention you are being clear you are dissatisfied. Quite a few non-voters aren't actively unhappy with the candidates - many haven't formed a preference but are basically fine with others making the decision for them.
https://twitter.com/AtaDivision/status/1147114330288209920
The Conservatives were just under 28% in the 1985 by-election.
We have to start somewhere so the Con-Lab vote share in B&R was just under 2/3 in 2017. On the assumption they've lost just under half of that let's allocate 40% to Con and Lab so we can say Con 30% and Lab 10%. The national Con-LD swing is about 15% so that would put the LDs at about 45% with TBP filling in the rest and maybe nicking another five points off the Conservatives so I come out at LD 45%, CON 25%, TBP 20% and Lab 10% so on a turnout of around 50%, I make it about a 5,000 LD majority.
Abstaining doesn't mean neither of them are elected and we stay as we are.
Likewise if we have a no deal Brexit we don't just go back to the status quo ante. Something changes.
Remember the abuse we got from the Tommy defenders, those poor thickos fell for Tommy's bullshit.
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1001056246756265986
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1001057162800586753
a) nobhead
b) nob head
c) knobhead
or
d) knob head