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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing

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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises
    A Keynesian fiscal stimulus? Will Boris have the balls to make Ed Balls Chancellor?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Observer, spraying around money recklessly in electoral bribes is nothing new, but it is irresponsible.

    Threatening to delist companies that don't obey the socialist creed on green matters, seizing shares/businesses without compensation, these are an entirely different order of magnitude.

    I also don't believe there's been a comparable anti-Muslim tide in the Conservatives. Some of those making accusations have been found to be/are dubious (the BBC debate questioner, and the MCB is hardly neutral), and we know the BBC has been feeble on the matter (I well recall Newsnight spending 95% of its time attacking rather than defending the right of the Jesus and Mo cartoonist to draw two religious figures, on the basis it's against Islamic rules [although he's an atheist]).

    Islam is hyper-sensitive to criticism and many Muslims believe it should be beyond it, and we should be very wary indeed of creating a blasphemy law by defining the ill-considered term 'Islamophobia' so broadly it shuts down on freedom of speech.

    The anti-Semitism sweeping through the left has far more concrete cases that are being, or should be, investigated. If similar specific cases of anti-Muslim prejudice exist within the Conservative Party, or elsewhere, they should likewise be investigated. That does not mean we should be blind to Islam's hyper-sensitive and the desire of many to curtail free speech when it comes to criticising or ridiculing an idea.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises

    You wanna bet? :smiley:

  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Scott_P said:
    My only comment is the use of the word could rather than will
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful
    There is Boris having conceded an independent review during the debates and then dropping it like a stone immediately thereafter. And both Ms Warsi's and Mr Javid's accusations go somewhat wider than you are conceding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises
    A magic money tree without any soil. Marvellous.

    And tax cuts focused predominantly on well off people who have already ceased to be active participants in the economy.
    No, tax cuts to grow the economy and focused on corporations with Hunt and £50k to £80k middle class workers with Boris not the richest 1%
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited July 2019



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair). Meanwhile it's prevented other parties from actually doing anything.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited July 2019
    Tabman said:



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair).
    This. If the Labour Party dies it offers a better chance of sensible non-Tory government in this country.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391

    Have you seen the cringeworthy 'model bus' interview? It is one thing for a politician to deflect using half truths, but to accidently allow an absolute whopper to trip off the tongue for no apparant gain is another. Having then realised the error, embellishing the point with spurrious detail, comfortable in the knowledge that your audience are so intellectually inferior that they won't even realise they have been subjected to a fib.

    You say Boris's bus-painting claim was accidental. Cynics believe it was deliberate and planned so future web searches would find this harmless anecdote rather than his lies controversial claims on buses, about £350 million going to the EU or the NHS.
    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/the-sinister-theory-about-boris-johnson-s-model-bus-story-john-mclellan-1-4956344
    Very clever!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises
    A magic money tree without any soil. Marvellous.

    And tax cuts focused predominantly on well off people who have already ceased to be active participants in the economy.
    No, tax cuts to grow the economy and focused on corporations with Hunt and £50k to £80k middle class workers with Boris not the richest 1%
    The "workers" will be partly paying for their own tax cut through higher National Insurance while the inactive pensioners will be receiving a much bigger benefit completely free.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. Observer, 'Islamophobia' remains a deeply flawed term as it wraps up entirely acceptable criticism of an idea with entirely unacceptable prejudice against individuals because of their religion.

    The Conservative Party now is unimpressive, yet still far better than the far left leadership of Labour. When the Conservative leader has marched under Hitler banners, then he'll be the equivalent of Corbyn.

    I see no difference between hostility to Jews and hostility to Muslims. I see no difference in Boris Johnson pandering to racists and Jeremy Corbyn doing it. I see no difference between a Labour Magic Money Tree and a Tory one. There is one difference between a Labour and Tory Fuck Business, though. The Tory one is deliberate and knowing.

    On pandering to racists, has Jeremy Corbyn used offensive terms like "yids" or "kikes" against Jews? Has Boris used similarly offensive terms for Black people? That would be one difference.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Tabman said:



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair). Meanwhile it's prevented other parties from actually doing anything.
    We might be heading back to the pre first world war status quo ante. Well not quite, but maybe Labour's hundred years in the sun are up.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_P said:
    Now is when the real Unionists are going to show their hand.

    Boris is a pseudo-Unionist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    FF43 said:

    I expect the UK to de facto stay in the CAP, once we face reality, as we must at some point. British farmers like their subsidies and like their only major export market even more. They are a powerful lobby.

    While it appears no-one in the government, with the exception of the outgoing Theresa May, cares less about Northern Ireland, CAP is pretty essential for NI's only significant industry. The Backstop is what it says. It's there to avoid the even worse outcome of a hard border. It's not a desirable end state.

    For different reasons I also expect the UK de facto to remain in the CFP. Access to UK waters is a top ask for Denmark and Spain and high demand for France and possibly others. As future negations will be with the EU27 jointly and severally, the CFP is a too red an EU line for a UK in weak negotiating position to trade away, except with a fig leaf.

    The latter is certainly true, and the EU has the leverage that their members buy 75-80% of the fish caught in British waters.

    On the former the problem is that the farmers with the power (in Tory circles) are the large landowners and not the folk with small farms out in the sticks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as his key commitment to Leave the EU with No Deal and go to WTO terms Nigel Farage promises to abolish interest rates on student loans, scrap HS2 and halve overseas aid use the savings to fund £200 billion of economic development outside London at a rally in Birmingham today.

    He also unveiled the first 100 Brexit Party Parliamentary candidates selected ready for any snap general election.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819725

    Have you heard back about your application yet?
    Be fair Ian - @HYUFD is a conservative candidate and still has political ambition. Don’t get him in trouble even in jest
    Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters voted Brexit Party in May, I did not but the real trouble for Tories will be if they do not commit to deliver Brexit
    No they didn't.

    13.6m people voted Conservative in the 2017 General Election.

    The Brexit Party got 5.2m votes in the 2019 Euros.

    Even if EVERY Brexit voter was 2017 Tory (they weren't), they were still nowhere near 50% of 2017 Tory voters.
    Of those who voted then but as YouGov has showed if the Tories do not deliver Brexit and extend again in October they will fall behind the Brexit Party at the next general election and probably go the way of the dodo until the remnants of the party are taken over by the Brexit Party or end up in the LDs. That is what happened to the Progressive Conservative Party in Canada once it fell behind the populist rightwing Reform Party in 1993 and lost power to the Liberal Party
    Other than the fact the present day Conservative Party doesn’t have the word “progressive” in front of it, what’s the difference?

    I concede it has its roots in Western Canada rather than Ontario, but that’s about it.
    The present day Conservative Party of Canada was formed by a merger (effectively a takeover) between the Reform Party's successor party 'the Alliance' and the Progressive Conservatives in 1993
    That’s form over substance

    Stephen Harper could easily have been a Progressive Conservative PM
    Stephen Harper was first elected as a Reform Party MP in 1993 having defected from the Progressive Conservatives
    You really know how to spectacularly miss the point.

    There is no substantial policy difference between PCP and Reform
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful

    Yeah, well, I think it is shameful that you - someone born into wealth, who has known only privilege throughout his life - would inflict a No Deal Brexit not only on the poorest and most vulnerable, but also on millions of ordinary working people across the UK. I think it is shameful that you would also happily countenance the break-up of our country to achieve what you desire.

    More pertinently, I think it is utterly shameful that you choose to overlook the countless documented cases of Tory Islamophobia - and how they have gone untackled and unpunished - using precisely the same kind of language used by Labour supporters excusing anti-Semitism, and choose instead to attack someone who has walked away from his party precisely because he is opposed to its racism.

    I guess we just see the world differently, Chas.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    The Conservative Party now is unimpressive, yet still far better than the far left leadership of Labour. When the Conservative leader has marched under Hitler banners, then he'll be the equivalent of Corbyn.

    Golly - if we start like this on a Monday morning the mind boggles at where we might end up come Friday afternoon!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Woudn't normally post dreams here, but given the subject matter....

    Dreamt I was at Glastonbury and Emily Eavis was on the Pyramid stage. "Two years ago we had Jeremy Corbyn....well, for politcal balance...." and she introduces Mark Thatcher. And he came on to The Clash "White Man in Hammersmith Palais". Specifically,

    "All over people changing their votes
    Along with their overcoats
    If Adolf Hitler flew in today
    They'd send a limousine anyway"

    Please, don't even TRY to analyse that....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Have you seen the cringeworthy 'model bus' interview? It is one thing for a politician to deflect using half truths, but to accidently allow an absolute whopper to trip off the tongue for no apparant gain is another. Having then realised the error, embellishing the point with spurrious detail, comfortable in the knowledge that your audience are so intellectually inferior that they won't even realise they have been subjected to a fib.

    You say Boris's bus-painting claim was accidental. Cynics believe it was deliberate and planned so future web searches would find this harmless anecdote rather than his lies controversial claims on buses, about £350 million going to the EU or the NHS.
    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/the-sinister-theory-about-boris-johnson-s-model-bus-story-john-mclellan-1-4956344
    Very clever!
    The cynical strategy also explains Boris's pauses, as if he is struggling to remember what he has been told to say, rather than what he actually does.

    Mind you, Gordon Brown took three days to tell Mumsnet what sort of biscuits he likes!
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Tabman said:



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair). Meanwhile it's prevented other parties from actually doing anything.
    We might be heading back to the pre first world war status quo ante. Well not quite, but maybe Labour's hundred years in the sun are up.
    Indeed. Given the fragmentation of the pre-1914 Liberal Party into the chunk that headed off after Churchill (National Liberals) and those that went off to Labour, are we starting to see that process reversing?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    If the 150,000 Tory Members only read one article before putting their X next to the name of the 'cavorting charlatan' it might as well be this one. Easy to read and after reading it no excuses please. If you want a pathological liar as PM vote for Boris. Most of us don't have a vote so it's in your hands
    Disappointing article tbh

    It’s an interesting premise but she didn’t build a case - she simply asserted it in the final sentence. It’s just a quick and easy “Boris is a liar” article that doesn’t add anything new
    That's surely the whole point of her article. She's not making a case but simple bullet points of why and how he's a dishonest and opportunistic shit. Most of us with a measurable IQ have worked this out for ourselves but she was aiming at Boris supporting Tory members and a US audience.
    We do need an article that just sets out in simple terms the ways in which Boris is unsuitable to be prime minister.

    He has (at least?) twice been fired for lying in his job. Once as a reporter, and once as a politician (sacked by Michael Howard). A rich seam of dishonesties also exist. Turkey, Iraq war, Boris bus, Heathrow expansion, expenses etc. Then there are plenty of cock-ups as FS, Mayor of London.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair).
    This. If the Labour Party dies it offers a better chance of sensible non-Tory government in this country.
    You mean Tory-Lite government. Vaguely centre-right..
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful
    So David Cameron using parliamentary privilege to accuse a random Muslim of being an ISIS supporter in order to help Zac Goldsmith's efforts to link Sadiq Khan to terrorism wasn't islamophobic?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair).
    This. If the Labour Party dies it offers a better chance of sensible non-Tory government in this country.
    You mean Tory-Lite government. Vaguely centre-right..
    No. He means a properly Liberal government. Not the sort of auhtoritarian statism that we've seen from Labour (even when Blair was in power, he still had to pander to his financiers, sadly).
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises
    A magic money tree without any soil. Marvellous.

    And tax cuts focused predominantly on well off people who have already ceased to be active participants in the economy.
    No, tax cuts to grow the economy and focused on corporations with Hunt and £50k to £80k middle class workers with Boris not the richest 1%
    Uh, you know people earning more than 80k get the tax cut too, right?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    A bit difficult if he is going to wreck the economy.

    Does Boris really need three Chancellors of the Exchequer?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Well I've certainly managed to fire up the PB LibDems this morning!

    Unfortunately I have to be off. Enjoy the leadership candidates' debate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391

    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful
    So David Cameron using parliamentary privilege to accuse a random Muslim of being an ISIS supporter in order to help Zac Goldsmith's efforts to link Sadiq Khan to terrorism wasn't islamophobic?
    Institutional racism in the Conservative Party? No way! I liked Boris batting away the Picaninis comment as 'sattire'. Well I guess that makes it OK then?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847

    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful
    So David Cameron using parliamentary privilege to accuse a random Muslim of being an ISIS supporter in order to help Zac Goldsmith's efforts to link Sadiq Khan to terrorism wasn't islamophobic?
    Not to mention the links to Bannon and Scruton, over the top criticisms of Khan as Mayor and references to Londonistan, or the tory member polling saying they dont want a Muslim leader?

    It is very similar to the Labour anti semitism, both parties have been taken over by loons. It is the apologists for the loons on both sides who are the real threat as they normalise the unnecessary division and hatred.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    If the 150,000 Tory Members only read one article before putting their X next to the name of the 'cavorting charlatan' it might as well be this one. Easy to read and after reading it no excuses please. If you want a pathological liar as PM vote for Boris. Most of us don't have a vote so it's in your hands
    Disappointing article tbh

    It’s an interesting premise but she didn’t build a case - she simply asserted it in the final sentence. It’s just a quick and easy “Boris is a liar” article that doesn’t add anything new
    That's surely the whole point of her article. She's not making a case but simple bullet points of why and how he's a dishonest and opportunistic shit. Most of us with a measurable IQ have worked this out for ourselves but she was aiming at Boris supporting Tory members and a US audience.
    We do need an article that just sets out in simple terms the ways in which Boris is unsuitable to be prime minister.

    He has (at least?) twice been fired for lying in his job. Once as a reporter, and once as a politician (sacked by Michael Howard). A rich seam of dishonesties also exist. Turkey, Iraq war, Boris bus, Heathrow expansion, expenses etc. Then there are plenty of cock-ups as FS, Mayor of London.
    It is surprising Jeremy Hunt has not summarised Boris's flaws in a handy leaflet (or tweet, in these enlightened times). More surprising still if Labour does not have one ready to go for any snap election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. kinabalu, Corbyn has marched under Stalin and Lenin banners. The rightwing equivalent is Hitler.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    An interesting article regarding timelines here. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/07/01/can-johnson-survive-his-first-weeks-in-no-10

    It’s very hard to see any election before November
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited July 2019

    More surprising still if Labour does not have one ready to go for any snap election.

    I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't have one, given the current Labour leadership's ability to launch artillery strikes on it's lower extremities.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    It's funny how all the deflections, excuses and denials used to wish away anti-Semitism in the Labour party are used to wish away Islamophobia in the Conservative party.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Yeah, well, I think it is shameful that you - someone born into wealth, who has known only privilege throughout his life - would inflict a No Deal Brexit not only on the poorest and most vulnerable, but also on millions of ordinary working people across the UK. I think it is shameful that you would also happily countenance the break-up of our country to achieve what you desire.

    More pertinently, I think it is utterly shameful that you choose to overlook the countless documented cases of Tory Islamophobia - and how they have gone untackled and unpunished - using precisely the same kind of language used by Labour supporters excusing anti-Semitism, and choose instead to attack someone who has walked away from his party precisely because he is opposed to its racism.

    I guess we just see the world differently, Chas.

    On Brexit, I would prefer a Deal - EFTA would be fine or even a bespoke associate membership. But from where we stand we don’t have many choices. The damage to our democracy from revoking would be immense. You will be telling all those people who came out to vote because they believed that - just once - they could have a say that their voices and votes are irrelevant

    I guess I value liberty and democracy more highly than economics.

    Warsi is not a credible source in my view (I’ve not seen Javid’s remarks). There will always be unpleasant individuals in any large group but the key is the leadership and structures. I don’t think those are as rotten in the Tories as they are in Labour

    But let’s leave it there. It’s too nice a day to fling insults at each other
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited July 2019
    Charles said:



    Yeah, well, I think it is shameful that you - someone born into wealth, who has known only privilege throughout his life - would inflict a No Deal Brexit not only on the poorest and most vulnerable, but also on millions of ordinary working people across the UK. I think it is shameful that you would also happily countenance the break-up of our country to achieve what you desire.

    More pertinently, I think it is utterly shameful that you choose to overlook the countless documented cases of Tory Islamophobia - and how they have gone untackled and unpunished - using precisely the same kind of language used by Labour supporters excusing anti-Semitism, and choose instead to attack someone who has walked away from his party precisely because he is opposed to its racism.

    I guess we just see the world differently, Chas.

    On Brexit, I would prefer a Deal - EFTA would be fine or even a bespoke associate membership. But from where we stand we don’t have many choices. The damage to our democracy from revoking would be immense. You will be telling all those people who came out to vote because they believed that - just once - they could have a say that their voices and votes are irrelevant

    I guess I value liberty and democracy more highly than economics.

    Warsi is not a credible source in my view (I’ve not seen Javid’s remarks). There will always be unpleasant individuals in any large group but the key is the leadership and structures. I don’t think those are as rotten in the Tories as they are in Labour

    But let’s leave it there. It’s too nice a day to fling insults at each other

    Those people did not vote for No Deal. No-one ever has. When given the opportunity to do so, the electorate has consistently chosen not to. I am not defending Labour. Labour is a cesspit of institutional racism. The difference between us is that I believe the Conservative party is too. I will vote for neither.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    eek said:

    An interesting article regarding timelines here. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/07/01/can-johnson-survive-his-first-weeks-in-no-10

    It’s very hard to see any election before November

    Very interesting. An offer of Sindyref2 to get SNP onside in a VoNC would be classic Boris.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Charles said:



    I guess I value liberty and democracy more highly than economics.

    That's easy to say when you're cushioned from it's effects.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    It's funny how all the deflections, excuses and denials used to wish away anti-Semitism in the Labour party are used to wish away Islamophobia in the Conservative party.

    Islamophobia is a part of the core tory DNA like golf, fox hunting and autoerotic asphyxiation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,264

    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful
    So David Cameron using parliamentary privilege to accuse a random Muslim of being an ISIS supporter in order to help Zac Goldsmith's efforts to link Sadiq Khan to terrorism wasn't islamophobic?
    Institutional racism in the Conservative Party? No way! I liked Boris batting away the Picaninis comment as 'sattire'. Well I guess that makes it OK then?
    Makes what OK?

    The comment was a good satire of Tony Blair going on 'colonial tours' of 'black countries' to avoid the political heat at home.

    That they are trolling with this stuff says not very much about Boris, and more about his attackers.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny how all the deflections, excuses and denials used to wish away anti-Semitism in the Labour party are used to wish away Islamophobia in the Conservative party.

    Islamophobia is a part of the core tory DNA like golf, fox hunting and autoerotic asphyxiation.
    The Upper Classes had a history of anti-semitism too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,264
    Hmmm.

    Surely Nellie the Elephant in Mike's (thanks, Mike) piece is the assumption that we can equate Euros with a General Election.

    Perhaps more so than in the past, but how much?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Morning all :)

    Let's not forget Boris will say whatever he judges the audience in front of him wants to hear. Speaking to 160,000 Conservative members is a different audience to speaking to the rest of the country but in the prism of this election he has to speak to the wider world and we're now seeing the coming of Magic Grandson.

    Money for all, tax cuts for all, huge infrastructure projects - there's no problem Boris can't solve with money. It's almost May-like in its intervention and indeed the more I hear him the more I hear her. Strangely, I also hear Corbyn as well - there's plenty of money in Hammond's "war chest".

    Who cares about a No Deal? Who cares about paying back the national debt? Who worries about the costs of adult social care? Who is interested in a Sovereign Wealth Fund to provide a lifeline in the next recession?

    Magic Grandson trying to emulate his Grandfather.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    An interesting article regarding timelines here. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/07/01/can-johnson-survive-his-first-weeks-in-no-10

    It’s very hard to see any election before November

    Very interesting. An offer of Sindyref2 to get SNP onside in a VoNC would be classic Boris.
    So to win Brexit Boris is happy to lose Scotland and Northern Ireland. Truely we are in for interesting times...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises
    A magic money tree without any soil. Marvellous.

    And tax cuts focused predominantly on well off people who have already ceased to be active participants in the economy.
    No, tax cuts to grow the economy and focused on corporations with Hunt and £50k to £80k middle class workers with Boris not the richest 1%
    Uh, you know people earning more than 80k get the tax cut too, right?
    Not always. Any increases to the personal allowance don't help anyone above 100k, for example. Nothing to stop that approach from being more widely adopted, or for an increase to the base rate threshold being counterbalanced by an opposite movement to a threshold further up.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Just a quick check-in with the PB hive mind. If I put in the same numbers on the Flavible UK results predictor versus Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus I'm getting radically different results. While I get that Baxter probably has a higher inertia factor based on previous results, I cant see what the difference is to cause the bias in either direction. Any ideas?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    eek said:

    So to win Brexit Boris is happy to lose Scotland and Northern Ireland. Truely we are in for interesting times...

    I am not sure that is necessarily true.

    In order to win the leadership, BoZo is happy for people to think he would be happy to lose Scotland and Ireland to win Brexit...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Charles said:

    On Brexit, I would prefer a Deal - EFTA would be fine or even a bespoke associate membership. But from where we stand we don’t have many choices. The damage to our democracy from revoking would be immense. You will be telling all those people who came out to vote because they believed that - just once - they could have a say that their voices and votes are irrelevant

    I guess I value liberty and democracy more highly than economics.

    The damage to democracy would come from imposing something without a specific mandate. A second referendum is the only way to obtain consent - and ensure the people you purport to be so concerned about's voices are heard.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    If the 150,000 Tory Members only read one article before putting their X next to the name of the 'cavorting charlatan' it might as well be this one. Easy to read and after reading it no excuses please. If you want a pathological liar as PM vote for Boris. Most of us don't have a vote so it's in your hands
    Disappointing article tbh

    It’s an interesting premise but she didn’t build a case - she simply asserted it in the final sentence. It’s just a quick and easy “Boris is a liar” article that doesn’t add anything new
    That's surely the whole point of her article. She's not making a case but simple bullet points of why and how he's a dishonest and opportunistic shit. Most of us with a measurable IQ have worked this out for ourselves but she was aiming at Boris supporting Tory members and a US audience.
    We do need an article that just sets out in simple terms the ways in which Boris is unsuitable to be prime minister.

    He has (at least?) twice been fired for lying in his job. Once as a reporter, and once as a politician (sacked by Michael Howard). A rich seam of dishonesties also exist. Turkey, Iraq war, Boris bus, Heathrow expansion, expenses etc. Then there are plenty of cock-ups as FS, Mayor of London.
    It is surprising Jeremy Hunt has not summarised Boris's flaws in a handy leaflet (or tweet, in these enlightened times). More surprising still if Labour does not have one ready to go for any snap election.
    Hunt may be pulling his punches in the expectation of losing. Labour won't.
    Their online video game is pretty strong I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Cicero said:

    Just a quick check-in with the PB hive mind. If I put in the same numbers on the Flavible UK results predictor versus Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus I'm getting radically different results. While I get that Baxter probably has a higher inertia factor based on previous results, I cant see what the difference is to cause the bias in either direction. Any ideas?

    Doesn't flavible claim to do a bit more than Baxter's plain UNS?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Just a quick check-in with the PB hive mind. If I put in the same numbers on the Flavible UK results predictor versus Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus I'm getting radically different results. While I get that Baxter probably has a higher inertia factor based on previous results, I cant see what the difference is to cause the bias in either direction. Any ideas?

    Doesn't flavible claim to do a bit more than Baxter's plain UNS?
    Baxter isn't UNS, it's a transition model.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Scott_P said:

    eek said:

    So to win Brexit Boris is happy to lose Scotland and Northern Ireland. Truely we are in for interesting times...

    I am not sure that is necessarily true.

    In order to win the leadership, BoZo is happy for people to think he would be happy to lose Scotland and Ireland to win Brexit...
    If he wants the SNP not to vote against him in a VoNC he needs to offer more than hope to the SNP...

    It's really impossible to see how Boris gets out of this situation in one piece...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Just a quick check-in with the PB hive mind. If I put in the same numbers on the Flavible UK results predictor versus Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus I'm getting radically different results. While I get that Baxter probably has a higher inertia factor based on previous results, I cant see what the difference is to cause the bias in either direction. Any ideas?

    Doesn't flavible claim to do a bit more than Baxter's plain UNS?
    Yes they call it a 'weighted swing'.

    https://flavible.com/politics/methodology
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    As it includes tax cuts not tax rises
    A magic money tree without any soil. Marvellous.

    And tax cuts focused predominantly on well off people who have already ceased to be active participants in the economy.
    No, tax cuts to grow the economy and focused on corporations with Hunt and £50k to £80k middle class workers with Boris not the richest 1%
    Uh, you know people earning more than 80k get the tax cut too, right?
    Not always. Any increases to the personal allowance don't help anyone above 100k, for example. Nothing to stop that approach from being more widely adopted, or for an increase to the base rate threshold being counterbalanced by an opposite movement to a threshold further up.
    Sure, but as far as we know that's not Boris' proposal
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    If the 150,000 Tory Members only read one article before putting their X next to the name of the 'cavorting charlatan' it might as well be this one. Easy to read and after reading it no excuses please. If you want a pathological liar as PM vote for Boris. Most of us don't have a vote so it's in your hands
    Disappointing article tbh

    It’s an interesting premise but she didn’t build a case - she simply asserted it in the final sentence. It’s just a quick and easy “Boris is a liar” article that doesn’t add anything new
    That's surely the whole point of her article. She's not making a case but simple bullet points of why and how he's a dishonest and opportunistic shit. Most of us with a measurable IQ have worked this out for ourselves but she was aiming at Boris supporting Tory members and a US audience.
    We do need an article that just sets out in simple terms the ways in which Boris is unsuitable to be prime minister.

    He has (at least?) twice been fired for lying in his job. Once as a reporter, and once as a politician (sacked by Michael Howard). A rich seam of dishonesties also exist. Turkey, Iraq war, Boris bus, Heathrow expansion, expenses etc. Then there are plenty of cock-ups as FS, Mayor of London.
    It is surprising Jeremy Hunt has not summarised Boris's flaws in a handy leaflet (or tweet, in these enlightened times). More surprising still if Labour does not have one ready to go for any snap election.
    Hunt may be pulling his punches in the expectation of losing. Labour won't.
    Their online video game is pretty strong I think.
    Link?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Tabman said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It's funny how all the deflections, excuses and denials used to wish away anti-Semitism in the Labour party are used to wish away Islamophobia in the Conservative party.

    Islamophobia is a part of the core tory DNA like golf, fox hunting and autoerotic asphyxiation.
    The Upper Classes had a history of anti-semitism too.
    Alan Clark was given to referring to "the clipped cock brigade" in his diary when he was sat in his fucking castle worrying about Thatch's semitophilia.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Excellent news. Good for them both to agree common position. I guess they are leaving C&S open though?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Mr. kinabalu, Corbyn has marched under Stalin and Lenin banners. The rightwing equivalent is Hitler.

    If the leader of the Conservative Party were to make a habit of marching in enthusiastic celebration of Adolf Hitler and the Thousand Year Reich, I would be writing to the Guardian about it. This is true.

    And yet I don't write in about Jeremy Corbyn and his links to individuals who take a sanguine (and sometimes more than that) view of Soviet Russia. Indeed I am almost certain to vote for him to be our next PM.

    How come, you may ask?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    edited July 2019

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    If I was them, I'd go down the "We aim to be largest party" direction, and say it was up to other parties to approach us were that to be the case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1145620949674409984
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Chris Patten knows a thing or two about tax bombshells.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    If the 150,000 Tory Members only read one article before putting their X next to the name of the 'cavorting charlatan' it might as well be this one. Easy to read and after reading it no excuses please. If you want a pathological liar as PM vote for Boris. Most of us don't have a vote so it's in your hands
    Disappointing article tbh

    It’s an interesting premise but she didn’t build a case - she simply asserted it in the final sentence. It’s just a quick and easy “Boris is a liar” article that doesn’t add anything new
    That's surely the whole point of her article. She's not making a case but simple bullet points of why and how he's a dishonest and opportunistic shit. Most of us with a measurable IQ have worked this out for ourselves but she was aiming at Boris supporting Tory members and a US audience.
    We do need an article that just sets out in simple terms the ways in which Boris is unsuitable to be prime minister.

    He has (at least?) twice been fired for lying in his job. Once as a reporter, and once as a politician (sacked by Michael Howard). A rich seam of dishonesties also exist. Turkey, Iraq war, Boris bus, Heathrow expansion, expenses etc. Then there are plenty of cock-ups as FS, Mayor of London.
    It is surprising Jeremy Hunt has not summarised Boris's flaws in a handy leaflet (or tweet, in these enlightened times). More surprising still if Labour does not have one ready to go for any snap election.
    Hunt may be pulling his punches in the expectation of losing. Labour won't.
    Their online video game is pretty strong I think.
    Link?
    Did you mean to reply to me? Those are just my opinions/speculations.

    I thought these videos were powerful: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gvagsSOlAy4&ved=2ahUKEwjC1PS9tJPjAhXFGewKHbifBoAQwqsBMAF6BAgFEAo&usg=AOvVaw3HI-HVx_Te6pvj3mr7HvtB

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/28/momentum-video-jeremy-corbyn-labour-university-tuition&ved=0ahUKEwjN4rnstJPjAhVHr6QKHaDTC7MQo7QBCCYwAA&usg=AOvVaw2IJPi-pYupGxwS_7EYYJKD
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Just a quick check-in with the PB hive mind. If I put in the same numbers on the Flavible UK results predictor versus Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus I'm getting radically different results. While I get that Baxter probably has a higher inertia factor based on previous results, I cant see what the difference is to cause the bias in either direction. Any ideas?

    Doesn't flavible claim to do a bit more than Baxter's plain UNS?
    Yes they call it a 'weighted swing'.

    https://flavible.com/politics/methodology
    Thanks. The upshot is that flavible is trying to use other data to make a more sophisticated (not necessarily better) estimate of how politics is changing (esp the emergence of new parties) whereas Baxter just works from 2017 GE straight.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    If the 150,000 Tory Members only read one article before putting their X next to the name of the 'cavorting charlatan' it might as well be this one. Easy to read and after reading it no excuses please. If you want a pathological liar as PM vote for Boris. Most of us don't have a vote so it's in your hands
    Disappointing article tbh

    It’s an interesting premise but she didn’t build a case - she simply asserted it in the final sentence. It’s just a quick and easy “Boris is a liar” article that doesn’t add anything new
    That's surely the whole point of her article. She's not making a case but simple bullet points of why and how he's a dishonest and opportunistic shit. Most of us with a measurable IQ have worked this out for ourselves but she was aiming at Boris supporting Tory members and a US audience.
    We do need an article that just sets out in simple terms the ways in which Boris is unsuitable to be prime minister.

    He has (at least?) twice been fired for lying in his job. Once as a reporter, and once as a politician (sacked by Michael Howard). A rich seam of dishonesties also exist. Turkey, Iraq war, Boris bus, Heathrow expansion, expenses etc. Then there are plenty of cock-ups as FS, Mayor of London.
    It is surprising Jeremy Hunt has not summarised Boris's flaws in a handy leaflet (or tweet, in these enlightened times). More surprising still if Labour does not have one ready to go for any snap election.
    Hunt may be pulling his punches in the expectation of losing. Labour won't.
    Their online video game is pretty strong I think.
    Link?
    Did you mean to reply to me? Those are just my opinions/speculations.

    I thought these videos were powerful: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gvagsSOlAy4&ved=2ahUKEwjC1PS9tJPjAhXFGewKHbifBoAQwqsBMAF6BAgFEAo&usg=AOvVaw3HI-HVx_Te6pvj3mr7HvtB

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/28/momentum-video-jeremy-corbyn-labour-university-tuition&ved=0ahUKEwjN4rnstJPjAhVHr6QKHaDTC7MQo7QBCCYwAA&usg=AOvVaw2IJPi-pYupGxwS_7EYYJKD
    There might be a misunderstanding about how to parse the phrase "online video game".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited July 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    An interesting article regarding timelines here. https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/07/01/can-johnson-survive-his-first-weeks-in-no-10

    It’s very hard to see any election before November

    Very interesting. An offer of Sindyref2 to get SNP onside in a VoNC would be classic Boris.
    The SNP are made of sterner stuff than the grovelling Matt Hancocks of ths world. They can't be bought off and certainly not by the odious Johnson
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    kinabalu said:



    How come, you may ask?

    I do ask
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    The other reason why Boris does so well is he provides hope and positivity to frightened, worried people. If you are worried about Brexit and anxious about the consequences of No Deal, there's no need.

    Boris will make it right - Boris will sort it out, just put your faith in him and you'll be fine. Essentially, that's the message.

    Back in 2008 as the storm clouds of recession gathered over London, along comes happy Boris and suddenly everything seems fine again. For a city used to being positive and happy, Boris was the perfect candidate in 2008 - those peddling hope (even false hope) will always get a good hearing in times of anxiety.

    This is why Boris will be Prime Minister - not because he's the best man for the job but he makes people happy or feel better no matter if that optimism is built on sand.
  • Off Topic - any updates from BJO?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Brexit killed prudence
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
    Good question.

    I've just received my voting link by email. I was going to immediately vote Swinson but, having watched the first 15 minutes of this debate, I think I might change my mind.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    dixiedean said:

    If that You Gov is any way correct, the choice of our next PM could well be Swinson or Davey. Checks position. Cripes!!

    FWIW - Davey and Swinson will doing a hustings of sorts tomorrow on sky news at 10am
    Swinson is a bigger liar than Boris and I have more chance of being Pope than she does of being PM.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Agela Merkel quite clearly has some illness and the Germans are trying to cover it up.

    Early Parkinsons ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    MattW said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Observer, the spending promises are reckless, but not confiscating property and acquiring businesses without recompense reckless. And there's no corresponding anti-Semitism surge.

    I agree with a lot of your sentiment but would add that your preferred alternative, (given a deal seems improbable, although do feel free to correct me), of remaining has very significant downsides as well.

    Odd to think where we'd be had it been 52% the other way. Probably Cameron having handed over to Osborne, with Farage leading UKIP to causing Labour some serious harm?

    No need to acquire businesses if they no longer exist. For Labour anti-Semitism, read Tory Islamophobia. There are no good options, but for me economic destruction is probably the least best. I guess others have other views.

    I think it is shameful the way that you try to equate Labour anti-Semitism with “Tory islamophobia”

    Labour anti-Semitism is a real thing, with multiple data points, that goes right to the top of the party. In my view it’s unproven for Corbyn himself but there is lots of circumstantial evidence that he at least tolerates it in his allies

    While I am sure there are cases of Tory islamophobia - and these should be cracked down on - there is limited evidence of anything more widespread (apart from wild accusations by Baroness Warsi which are partly driven by self promotion). There is certainly no evidence of the leadership sharing or tolerating these views

    We all knew you were going to come up with some way to justify supporting Labour. To do it by diminishing a real and important problem is just shameful
    So David Cameron using parliamentary privilege to accuse a random Muslim of being an ISIS supporter in order to help Zac Goldsmith's efforts to link Sadiq Khan to terrorism wasn't islamophobic?
    Institutional racism in the Conservative Party? No way! I liked Boris batting away the Picaninis comment as 'sattire'. Well I guess that makes it OK then?
    Makes what OK?

    The comment was a good satire of Tony Blair going on 'colonial tours' of 'black countries' to avoid the political heat at home.

    That they are trolling with this stuff says not very much about Boris, and more about his attackers.
    I believe your critisism of my comment is unfair! You would have been better to have been critical of my unacceptable spelling.

    The allusion of Blair as some old colonialist is good satire. The use of 'water melon smiles' is crass steteotypical racism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    If that You Gov is any way correct, the choice of our next PM could well be Swinson or Davey. Checks position. Cripes!!

    FWIW - Davey and Swinson will doing a hustings of sorts tomorrow on sky news at 10am
    Swinson is a bigger liar than Boris and I have more chance of being Pope than she does of being PM.
    His Holiness should try and moderate his language
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    IanB2 said:

    Tabman said:



    I've stuck with my party through thick and thin. Of course they've done plenty I don't agree with, but they offer the best hope for the better society that I would like to see.

    The Labour Party is the biggest blocker to progress in this country that there is. It's an unholy alliance of self-interested Unions and middle class identity politicians, who's sole aim is to preserve the status of it's client vote.

    In it's 120 year or so existence as a major electoral force, it's barely been in power for a fifth of that (and a significant chunk of that time was Blair).
    This. If the Labour Party dies it offers a better chance of sensible non-Tory government in this country.
    You mean Tory-Lite government. Vaguely centre-right..
    Like the SNP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
    Good question.

    I've just received my voting link by email. I was going to immediately vote Swinson but, having watched the first 15 minutes of this debate, I think I might change my mind.
    I'm sure plenty of journalists equate LD and anyone else working together as a coalition, influenced by the fold memory of the LD-Con coalition Gov't.

    "Offer support" would be a much better question, as that encompasses confidence and supply, coalition, bill by bill support and even whipped abstention on Budgets and QS.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
    They would sell their granny for a whiff of power. They are the worst of an extremely bad bunch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
    They could, but I don't see why they would need to answer a hypothetical question in those terms.
    'We would have to see what Parliamentary Labour Party we might be negotiating with' would be a reasonable answer, given that any such negotiations would be after an election whose outcome is highly uncertain - and might not even return Corbyn to Parliament.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Just a quick check-in with the PB hive mind. If I put in the same numbers on the Flavible UK results predictor versus Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus I'm getting radically different results. While I get that Baxter probably has a higher inertia factor based on previous results, I cant see what the difference is to cause the bias in either direction. Any ideas?

    Doesn't flavible claim to do a bit more than Baxter's plain UNS?
    Yes they call it a 'weighted swing'.

    https://flavible.com/politics/methodology
    Thanks. The upshot is that flavible is trying to use other data to make a more sophisticated (not necessarily better) estimate of how politics is changing (esp the emergence of new parties) whereas Baxter just works from 2017 GE straight.
    Thanks to all... Sounds like Flavible might be doing more than Baxter, so I should probably at least split the difference when thinking about what the seat numbers might be in any given scenario.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    stodge said:

    The other reason why Boris does so well is he provides hope and positivity to frightened, worried people. If you are worried about Brexit and anxious about the consequences of No Deal, there's no need.

    Boris will make it right - Boris will sort it out, just put your faith in him and you'll be fine. Essentially, that's the message.

    Back in 2008 as the storm clouds of recession gathered over London, along comes happy Boris and suddenly everything seems fine again. For a city used to being positive and happy, Boris was the perfect candidate in 2008 - those peddling hope (even false hope) will always get a good hearing in times of anxiety.

    This is why Boris will be Prime Minister - not because he's the best man for the job but he makes people happy or feel better no matter if that optimism is built on sand.

    He scares me. His witless bluster could result in some very real harm to people in this country.

    At a time of insecurity I want someone I can trust, someone in whom I can have confidence, someone who I can trust to have a well-thought put plan to steer us through.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Scott_P said:

    eek said:

    So to win Brexit Boris is happy to lose Scotland and Northern Ireland. Truely we are in for interesting times...

    I am not sure that is necessarily true.

    In order to win the leadership, BoZo is happy for people to think he would be happy to lose Scotland and Ireland to win Brexit...
    Is all that marching at the weekend got you confused Scott
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Agela Merkel quite clearly has some illness and the Germans are trying to cover it up.

    Early Parkinsons ?
    Sad, if so. But isn’t she retiring?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    If the polls stay as they are, LibDems will be able to insist the other parties be asked whether they would support them.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
    Good question.

    I've just received my voting link by email. I was going to immediately vote Swinson but, having watched the first 15 minutes of this debate, I think I might change my mind.
    If the current political climate did not favour any credible woman candidate [ understandably ] , Davey would be a formidable candidate. Saying, he is my candidate and I don't like him. Wrote to him twice and was just ignored.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Well I've certainly managed to fire up the PB LibDems this morning!

    Unfortunately I have to be off. Enjoy the leadership candidates' debate.

    Donkey Derby's are always interesting
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, Corbyn has marched under Stalin and Lenin banners. The rightwing equivalent is Hitler.

    If the leader of the Conservative Party were to make a habit of marching in enthusiastic celebration of Adolf Hitler and the Thousand Year Reich, I would be writing to the Guardian about it. This is true.

    And yet I don't write in about Jeremy Corbyn and his links to individuals who take a sanguine (and sometimes more than that) view of Soviet Russia. Indeed I am almost certain to vote for him to be our next PM.

    How come, you may ask?
    How come ?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1145622022858448897

    No point in trying to swim and then tying yourself to an anchor.

    Can a journalist ask them if they'll give confidence and supply to Labour though ?
    Good question.

    I've just received my voting link by email. I was going to immediately vote Swinson but, having watched the first 15 minutes of this debate, I think I might change my mind.
    If the current political climate did not favour any credible woman candidate [ understandably ] , Davey would be a formidable candidate. Saying, he is my candidate and I don't like him. Wrote to him twice and was just ignored.
    Edit: I meant he is my MP....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    If that You Gov is any way correct, the choice of our next PM could well be Swinson or Davey. Checks position. Cripes!!

    FWIW - Davey and Swinson will doing a hustings of sorts tomorrow on sky news at 10am
    Swinson is a bigger liar than Boris and I have more chance of being Pope than she does of being PM.
    Thought you were a Wee Free?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Agela Merkel quite clearly has some illness and the Germans are trying to cover it up.

    Early Parkinsons ?
    Morning Alan, certainly looked like that or something similar
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Brexit killed prudence
    And David and George and Theresa and it will shortly be adding Boris to its list of victims.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Agela Merkel quite clearly has some illness and the Germans are trying to cover it up.

    Early Parkinsons ?
    Sad, if so. But isn’t she retiring?
    currently shes trying to hang in until the next election

    she has done a 180 degree turn on her nominated successor AKK and now appears to be withdrawing support from her

    shes in a fight with Macron on EU commissioners

    and she has led her party to the number two slot behind the greens according to the latest polls

    really she should have gone out on a high and not stood this time around
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Given the enthusiasm held by some for wealth taxes here, there’s an interesting article at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48759591

    What it doesn’t touch on clearly and would be interesting to understand better (and which politicians might seek to understand better) is how much of this “wealth” is locked in private pension funds and how much of the growth in wealth is attributable to people having to make provision for their own retirement rather than relying on employer DB pensions. On its face, it seems that much of this wealth is both illiquid and purposed for long term income provision. Is that wrong?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    As well as Hunt's pledge today to provide funds to support farmers, fishermen and small businesses in the event of No Deal, the Boris camp today has promised public sector workers a pay rise if Boris becomes PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48819260

    Fuck Business and the Magic Money Tree. How is this better than anything being promised by Corbyn and McDonnell?

    Isn't there someting groteque about these two Tory politicians making grand spending pledges to the electorate in order to persuade 150,000 party members to vote for them? It feels like there's something rotten in the state of British politics....
    It is grotesque.

    I have been at the seaside for the weekend and come back to find that both candidates are proposing to spend and borrow like there’s no tomorrow, thus throwing away any claim to being the party of prudent stewardship of the economy and making Corbyn’s case better than he can, and one is saying with a straight face that businesses and families bankrupted or severely harmed by a no Deal Brexit should just suck it up and be prepared to sacrifice themselves and their families.

    On reflection, grotesque is too polite a word.

    Have I missed anything else important?
    Brexit killed prudence
    Yet the deficit is down now to a fraction of what it was under the "Iron Chancellor" of Labour for each of the five years before the recession hit. Explain that please.
This discussion has been closed.