Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

If you’ve always been a lurker, So if you’made up your mind, that your lurking, must come to an end, take a chance, and start posting on PB, then this thread is for you. I’m sure once you start posting,  you’ll be, having the time of your life.

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,433
    evening all
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Galloway on his feet in the HoC now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    London in 1985, Thatcher's Britain:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3j2NYZ8FKs
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    I see what you've done with that thread header, TSE.
    When Mike comes back, I'm t-e-l-l-i-n-g on you.
  • LOL. That was Abbatastic.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I'd offer some advice to Ed but I would have to join a queue.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Avoid
    Betting
    Before
    Advice

    (tis the PB motto)
  • Fat_Steve said:

    I see what you've done with that thread header, TSE.
    When Mike comes back, I'm t-e-l-l-i-n-g on you.

    *Innocent Face*

    I have to thank Mike for giving me the opportunity to edit PB in his absence.

    Today I have written an Ed is Crap thread and an ABBA themed nighthawks.

    Best day ever.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rEd is doing a grand job - everyone is talking about him.
  • TSE. You're a real (Super) Trouper.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Nighthawks, kicking off at 20:30? It used to be 22:00, I don't know, what is the site coming to? I blame Fatcher, Osborne and that funny little gimp who does Prime Minister impersonations.
  • Nighthawks, kicking off at 20:30? It used to be 22:00, I don't know, what is the site coming to? I blame Fatcher, Osborne and that funny little gimp who does Prime Minister impersonations.

    Tonight is a bit complicated for me.

    I'm not sure what threads to run tomorrow, tomorrow is going to be a weird day for politics.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    I'm a lurcher.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    Since ICM's poll confirms that there has been no noticable shift in almost a year:

    Events to have had no noticable effect on the polls (via Wikipedia):

    Bob Diamond resigns as the Chief Executive of British bank Barclays following a scandal in which the bank tried to manipulate the Libor and Euribor interest rates systems.
    London hosts the 2012 Summer Olympic Games, beginning with an opening ceremony, and making the UK capital the first city to host the Games for a third time.
    West Coast franchise problems
    The UK's largest independent investigation into police wrongdoing will be conducted following damning reports into the 1989 Hillsborough disaster
    British Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond sign the Edinburgh Agreement - a deal setting out the terms of a referendum on Scottish independence.
    Saville et al.
    Prime Minister David Cameron orders a fresh investigation into allegations of sexual abuse involving a senior Conservative politician from the Thatcher era. The allegations concern sexual abuse at children's homes in Wales during the 1970s and 1980s
    Conservative MP Nadine Dorries is suspended from the party after her decision to appear on the reality television series I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here!.
    Elections are held to choose 41 Police and Crime Commissioners in England and Wales.
    Education Secretary Michael Gove and Rotherham Council are to launch separate investigations after three children were removed from their foster parents because the couple belong to the UK Independence Party.
    Leveson reports
    The UK Independence Party achieve second place in Middlesbrough and Rotherham, beating the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
    Government plans to redraw constituency boundaries before the next general election are defeated in the House of Commons by 334 to 292.
    Former government Minister Chris Huhne pleads guilty to perverting the course of justice over claims he caused his ex-wife to accept speeding points he had incurred. He also announces his intention to resign his House of Commons seat.
    The House of Commons votes 400 to 175 in favour of a vote on the bill to legalise same-sex marriage in England and Wales.
    Secretary of State for Education Michael Gove confirms that plans to replace the General Certificate of Secondary Education with a new English Baccalaureate qualification have been abandoned.
    UK loses top AAA credit rating for first time since 1978 after being downgraded by the ratings agency Moody's
    The Eastleigh by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of Chris Huhne, sees the Liberal Democrats hold the seat despite a UKIP surge that pushes the Conservatives into third place.
    Prime Minister David Cameron says talks between himself and the leaders of the UK's other main political parties on the recommendations of the Leveson report have broken down, and that he intends to publish a Royal Charter on press regulations.
    The date for the Scottish independence referendum is announced as 18 September 2014
    and probably Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher dies following a stroke.

    [Edit: in terms of Labour's lead over the Tories, that is. There has been a shift in UKIP upward, and a slight increase in LD. Those changes have been gradual across the whole year.]
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    @Grandiose
    Put like that, it's interesting
    I'm sure I'm not misremembering that, say, 5 years ago, the polls were more dynamic.
    There might be some small tweaks to methodology etc. that might influence this - But I don;t think they would explain the degree of difference between then and now.
    Has something changed?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    This was an anthem of the Gorbachev and Thatcher era.

    "Wind of Change" by the Scorpions.

    Written during a trip to Moscow in 1989, it was played endlessly in the Soviet Union right up to and through its dissolution.

    Play it tonight for Maggie.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KcRl1p2waM

    I follow the Moskva
    Down to Gorky Park
    Listening to the wind of change
    An August summer night
    Soldiers passing by
    Listening to the wind of change

    The world is closing in
    Did you ever think
    That we could be so close, like brothers
    The future's in the air
    I can feel it everywhere
    Blowing with the wind of change

    Take me to the magic of the moment
    On a glory night
    Where the children of tomorrow dream away
    in the wind of change

    Walking down the street
    Distant memories
    Are buried in the past forever
    I follow the Moskva
    Down to Gorky Park
    Listening to the wind of change

    Take me to the magic of the moment
    On a glory night
    Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams
    With you and me
    Take me to the magic of the moment
    On a glory night
    Where the children of tomorrow dream away
    in the wind of change

    The wind of change
    Blows straight into the face of time
    Like a stormwind that will ring the freedom bell
    For peace of mind
    Let your balalaika sing
    What my guitar wants to say

    Take me to the magic of the moment
    On a glory night
    Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams
    With you and me
    Take me to the magic of the moment
    On a glory night
    Where the children of tomorrow dream away
    in the wind of change
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just got in and skimmed through the last thread and was rather entertained by the usual suspects' predictable response to the IMF report. I'd urge them all to have a quick google news search for Gordon Brown IMF Warning, filtered for 1998-2007. Virtually every year there's a story with a headline such as "IMF gives Brown borrowing warning" or "IMF warns Brown taxes too high"; were the left listening then?
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Written during a trip to Moscow in 1989, it was played endlessly in the Soviet Union right up to and through its dissolution.

    Play it tonight for Maggie."


    One day someone may explain to my satisfaction how internal political and economic reform in the Eastern Bloc constituted a wartime victory for the West, let alone a single-handed triumph for the leader of a relatively unimportant country off the coast of western Europe.

    But I doubt it.
  • @y0kel

    what are we to make that that the devices used in Boston are of a similar nature of those used as IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    "Written during a trip to Moscow in 1989, it was played endlessly in the Soviet Union right up to and through its dissolution.

    Play it tonight for Maggie."


    One day someone may explain to my satisfaction how internal political and economic reform in the Eastern Bloc constituted a wartime victory for the West, let alone a single-handed triumph for the leader of a relatively unimportant country off the coast of western Europe.

    But I doubt it.

    It was Mikhail Gorbachev's 1984 meeting with Margaret Thatcher wot did it, James.

    She converted him to Thatcherism and the rest is history.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The bad news for Osborne keeps on rolling in

    Following on from his IMF shellacking:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100212411/george-osbornes-favourite-economists-may-have-got-their-sums-wrong-that-cant-be-good-for-the-chancellor/

    Conservatism almost entirely discredited.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548



    One day someone may explain to my satisfaction how internal political and economic reform in the Eastern Bloc constituted a wartime victory for the West, let alone a single-handed triumph for the leader of a relatively unimportant country off the coast of western Europe.

    But I doubt it.

    I don't expect you to believe anybody on this, but maybe Gorbachev could persuade you?

    "But Gorbachev said on Monday that his relationship with Thatcher helped bring change and tear down the Iron Curtain."
    http://news.in.msn.com/international/gorbachev-says-exceptional-thatcher-helped-end-cold-war
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "In 1987, psychologist and risk perception expert Paul Slovic skillfully summarized in the journal Science how we calculate risk. In general, humans tend to be wary and apprehensive of risks that are uncontrollable, potentially fatal, possibly catastrophic, and relatively unknown."

    http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/04/16/why-we-fear-terrorism/
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I don't expect you to believe anybody on this, but maybe Gorbachev could persuade you?"

    If I thought he wasn't just saying what politicians always say in these circumstances, then maybe.

    "Slovakia and the United States stand shoulder to shoulder in the cause of freedom"

    Etc, etc.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:


    Conservatism almost entirely discredited.

    A most inappropriate comment, Ben.

    On tonight of all nights.

    Shame on you.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "A most inappropriate comment, Ben.

    On tonight of all nights."


    Is tonight like Maundy Thursday for you, or something? "Take this iron, and eat of it. This is the iron of the Iron Lady. It has been shed for you and for all, so that income tax may be lowered. Do this in memory of me."
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    @y0kel

    what are we to make that that the devices used in Boston are of a similar nature of those used as IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan?

    The most common use has been by Jihadists worldwide but the knowledge of how to make them spreads much wider so it may point one way but not with a certainty.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    "A most inappropriate comment, Ben.

    On tonight of all nights."


    Is tonight like Maundy Thursday for you, or something? "Take this iron, and eat of it. This is the iron of the Iron Lady. It has been shed for you and for all, so that income tax may be lowered. Do this in memory of me."

    Careful, James, carry on in that vein and she may rise again from the dead.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    BenM said:

    The bad news for Osborne keeps on rolling inFollowing on from his IMF shellacking:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100212411/george-osbornes-favourite-economists-may-have-got-their-sums-wrong-that-cant-be-good-for-the-chancellor/

    Conservatism almost entirely discredited.

    George Osborne's not fighting an academic war. The claim in question was that debt above 90% is correlated with more negative growth than for debt under 90% but it hardly matters. Osborne in the public minds is tied to just one set of data: the UK's. The fact is that growth will be good for the government and recession bad come 2015. Whether Labour's plans are seen as a credible alternative is, in my opinion, largely out of their hands, and, to the extent that it will be a factor, not determined by two academics because it's about Britain and Britain's fortunes and nowhere else.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Careful, James, carry on in that vein and she may rise again from the dead."

    Well, if last night's ICM is anything to go by, that's the Tories' only hope of getting back to 40%.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Grandiose said:

    BenM said:

    The bad news for Osborne keeps on rolling inFollowing on from his IMF shellacking:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100212411/george-osbornes-favourite-economists-may-have-got-their-sums-wrong-that-cant-be-good-for-the-chancellor/

    Conservatism almost entirely discredited.

    George Osborne's not fighting an academic war. The claim in question was that debt above 90% is correlated with more negative growth than for debt under 90% but it hardly matters. Osborne in the public minds is tied to just one set of data: the UK's. The fact is that growth will be good for the government and recession bad come 2015. Whether Labour's plans are seen as a credible alternative is, in my opinion, largely out of their hands, and, to the extent that it will be a factor, not determined by two academics because it's about Britain and Britain's fortunes and nowhere else.
    It is important politically, Grandiose.

    If the Keynesians can force Osborne into a perceived U-turn or change of plan to obvious stimuli then it gives legitimacy to the Balls platform.

    Whatever Osborne does he mustn't allow it to be seen as a retreat or endorsement of any strategy other than 'per ardua ad astra'.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    When you have an economist whose name could easily be mistaken for BOGOFF, you should be careful !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited April 2013
    The best version and lit by my very good friend who fatally fell of the roof of his house in France last year. A big fan of Thatcher and 'help the heroes'. So for Michel Gemmel RIP I give you......

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=php1eERRhmk
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Grandiose said:



    George Osborne's not fighting an academic war.

    That's right. He's not. He's got no data or empirical evidence to back him up at all now.

    So all we see is empty bluster and bullshine from the biggest charlatan the post of Chancellor has ever had the misfortune to have as incumbent.

    Look around you - the Austerity experiment is a disaster. It's a disaster for the country due to its failure and its a rolling disaster for you Tories because its wholly undermined any claim to competence you erroneously thought you had.

    There is not going to be much growth between now and 2015. The goal is wide open for Labour and the keeper is prostrate on the ground.

  • Unless anything major happens between now and 9am, I'm going to run an Open thread tomorrow morning.

    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Hope that meets with your approval.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AveryLP said:

    "Written during a trip to Moscow in 1989, it was played endlessly in the Soviet Union right up to and through its dissolution.

    Play it tonight for Maggie."


    One day someone may explain to my satisfaction how internal political and economic reform in the Eastern Bloc constituted a wartime victory for the West, let alone a single-handed triumph for the leader of a relatively unimportant country off the coast of western Europe.

    But I doubt it.

    It was Mikhail Gorbachev's 1984 meeting with Margaret Thatcher wot did it, James.

    She converted him to Thatcherism and the rest is history.

    I thought he was a CIA plant from well before then.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BenM said:

    Grandiose said:



    George Osborne's not fighting an academic war.

    That's right. He's not. He's got no data or empirical evidence to back him up at all now.

    So all we see is empty bluster and bullshine from the biggest charlatan the post of Chancellor has ever had the misfortune to have as incumbent.

    Look around you - the Austerity experiment is a disaster. It's a disaster for the country due to its failure and its a rolling disaster for you Tories because its wholly undermined any claim to competence you erroneously thought you had.

    There is not going to be much growth between now and 2015. The goal is wide open for Labour and the keeper is prostrate on the ground.

    No, Ben, "austerity doesn't work".

    Take Greece for example.

    Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said that Greece has completed most of the fiscal adjustment and efforts needed to recover competitiveness.

    "We have completed two thirds of the fiscal adjustment and three quarters of the adjustment of the economy’s competitiveness," he said at a press conference in Athens.

    Stournaras assured that the Greek economy is rapidly regaining trust and that the country needs to remain calm and focused.

    He added that the goal is to obtain a primary surplus this year in order to ease the debt reductions requested by international lenders and that the government would be willing to recover 15,000 public sector workers by the end of 2014 and 4,000 as early as the end of this year.

    Also, Deputy Finance Minister Christos Staikouras assured that €20bn in deposits have returned to the banking system.

    Meanwhile, the country held a debt auction on Tuesday that allowed €1.625bn to be raised in three-month bills at a yield of 4.05% and a bid-to-cover rate of 1.65, according to the Greek Treasury.

  • Well, I personally can't wait for tomorrow to be over. I hope her funeral goes off without any trauma, no one gets hurt, and she gets a dignified ending.
    Hopefully, at the end of it all, you righties and lefties can, ultimately, get over her, and move on with your lives. Please.
  • So we're going to have two Welsh sides in the English Premier League next season.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AveryLP said:



    If the Keynesians can force Osborne into a perceived U-turn or change of plan to obvious stimuli then it gives legitimacy to the Balls platform.

    Whatever Osborne does he mustn't allow it to be seen as a retreat or endorsement of any strategy other than 'per ardua ad astra'.

    Paradoxically, this could be good news for Osborne by providing intellectual cover for a shift to a more rational, expansionary economic policy, probably called, as is now traditional, Plan A.

    It is terrible news for the Blairites who have spent the week undermining Ed Miliband only to find out Ed Balls may have been right all along.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916



    One day someone may explain to my satisfaction how internal political and economic reform in the Eastern Bloc constituted a wartime victory for the West, let alone a single-handed triumph for the leader of a relatively unimportant country off the coast of western Europe.

    But I doubt it.

    I don't expect you to believe anybody on this, but maybe Gorbachev could persuade you?

    "But Gorbachev said on Monday that his relationship with Thatcher helped bring change and tear down the Iron Curtain."
    http://news.in.msn.com/international/gorbachev-says-exceptional-thatcher-helped-end-cold-war
    Having met Gorbachev well before he met MT, he was already convinced that they could work together and admired her greatly. He was impressed by the clarity of her vision and decisiveness.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    SeanT said:

    I have a feeling tomorrow could be mildly calamitous for the Tories: a semi-state funeral attended by no-one but the die-hards, and a sense of national disconnect. The problem is that the minority who revere Thatcher aren't the sort for public displays of emotion, whereas the minority that hate her, are.

    Their best bet is that some leftards do something outrageous, thus engendering sympathy. This is quite possible. In fact if I was Cameron I'd right now be *hiring* some 17 year old Labourite halfwit to bare his buttocks at the cortege, while shouting IRA slogans.


    I doubt it will be calamitous. Assuming nothing outrageous happens, by the weekend it will be forgotten. It might be a shock to some to realise that Thatcher was just a politician after all. But that's probably a good thing for the Tories.
  • SeanT said:

    I have a feeling tomorrow could be mildly calamitous for the Tories: a semi-state funeral attended by no-one but the die-hards, and a sense of national disconnect. The problem is that the minority who revere Thatcher aren't the sort for public displays of emotion, whereas the minority that hate her, are.

    Their best bet is that some leftards do something outrageous, thus engendering sympathy. This is quite possible. In fact if I was Cameron I'd right now be *hiring* some 17 year old Labourite halfwit to bare his buttocks at the cortege, while shouting IRA slogans.

    I agree. I had my in laws ringing to check I was OK after she died as a joke but I have never considered going to the circus. The only thing I could imagine happening was rowing pointlessly with a student leftie.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited April 2013


    I doubt it will be calamitous. Assuming nothing outrageous happens, by the weekend it will be forgotten. It might be a shock to some to realise that Thatcher was just a politician after all. But that's probably a good thing for the Tories.




    A fair few on the left could do with realising that, too.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    So we're going to have two Welsh sides in the English Premier League next season.

    Da iawn. Llongyfarchiadau I Gaerdydd!!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    Thatchers death has been good for the Tories in the sense its stopped Labour getting their attack lines over during a crucial period of the local elections.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,744
    edited April 2013
    re the hare that BenM stated about George Osborne's favourite economists (and mine too). Reinhart and Rogoff have just given a quick response:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-response-to-critique/

    The substance of their argument is not affected by the "mistakes", they say.
    I wouldn't bet against a chess grandmaster.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:



    If the Keynesians can force Osborne into a perceived U-turn or change of plan to obvious stimuli then it gives legitimacy to the Balls platform.

    Whatever Osborne does he mustn't allow it to be seen as a retreat or endorsement of any strategy other than 'per ardua ad astra'.

    Paradoxically, this could be good news for Osborne by providing intellectual cover for a shift to a more rational, expansionary economic policy, probably called, as is now traditional, Plan A.

    It is terrible news for the Blairites who have spent the week undermining Ed Miliband only to find out Ed Balls may have been right all along.
    Ed Balls is not right, as the recoveries of Greece and Ireland are showing.

    There is a spillover from the debate in the US over austerity vs. stimulus, whereby the Democrat supporting 'liberal' press are trying to endorse Obama's 'neither fish nor fowl' approach to economic management.

    These Krugmanite Obama apologists are desperate to point to the UK as a failed experiment in austerity economics.

    And each day they rant the UK economy strengthens, growing faster than its main EU competitors and attracting continued support from the bond markets and rating agencies.

    It is Margaret and the 364 economists all over again.

    Osborne and the UK are turning out to be the models for how to manage fiscal consolidation optimally.

    The New York Times is raging against this reality.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Fat_Steve said:

    @Grandiose
    Put like that, it's interesting
    I'm sure I'm not misremembering that, say, 5 years ago, the polls were more dynamic.
    There might be some small tweaks to methodology etc. that might influence this - But I don;t think they would explain the degree of difference between then and now.
    Has something changed?

    Presumably a bigger pool of don't knows means there is more opportunity for offsetting shifts?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Wonder what the IMF had to say about France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Netherlands ?

    All doing worse than the Uk.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    The bad news for Osborne keeps on rolling in

    Following on from his IMF shellacking:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100212411/george-osbornes-favourite-economists-may-have-got-their-sums-wrong-that-cant-be-good-for-the-chancellor/

    Conservatism almost entirely discredited.

    Can you give us a quick summary on why you believe the Mass paper rather than R&R's approach?

    Or do you think that a single academic counterclaim is sufficient to "discredit" two respected thinkers without further contention?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF said:

    Wonder what the IMF had to say about France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Netherlands ?

    All doing worse than the Uk.

    Then it is lucky Gordon Brown kept us out. Otherwise we'd be suffering German-imposed austerity.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,541

    Unless anything major happens between now and 9am, I'm going to run an Open thread tomorrow morning.

    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Hope that meets with your approval.

    Hell no. Are we the Daily Express discussion thread?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Osborne u turned ages ago, hence the extra £245 Billion in borrowing.

    He's so bad he killed growth while accidentally providing a fiscal stimulus.

    No, tim.

    Osborne has not changed spending plans.

    The $245 bn comes from shortfalls in government receipts due to lower than expected global and, in particular, EU growth.

    His control of spending is so tight all he needed to do to weather the fall in growth was to extend the debt reduction supplementary target.

    So no extraordinary stimulus and none needed.

    The mortgage and housing initiative is aimed as much to bank restructuring and share sale needs as it is to general growth stimulus. I accept though that it is also designed to kickstart private sector investment in house building and corresponding household demand but this is a subsidiary, if still important, driver.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    edited April 2013
    Via twitter.

    3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!

    Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    OTOH, and to contradict myself, I've just realised the Thatcher funeral cortege rolls through Westminster and the City, exclusively.

    There will surely be enough mildly curious tourists in the former, and enough sincerely mourning bankers in the latter, to guarantee a fairly decent turnout.

    It's a bit of a pain for us - we have +Fulham being installed as the resident vicar of our family church tomorrow & Fleet Street is going to be a 'mare to navigate.

    Unfortunately I'm off to Italy for dinner anyway.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    There seems to be a concerted attack on Osborne's competence on all the news channels. To paraphrase he f*ucked up the budget badly
  • Unless anything major happens between now and 9am, I'm going to run an Open thread tomorrow morning.

    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Hope that meets with your approval.

    Hell no. Are we the Daily Express discussion thread?

    Ok, I'll do a thread.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Via twitter.

    3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!

    Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.

    I imagine Mr Bale is learning Spanish......
  • NextNext Posts: 826


    Then it is lucky Gordon Brown kept us out.

    Brown kept us out due to the desire to keep power to himself.

    The fact that it happens to be a good thing now is merely a collateral benefit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tim said:

    Football didn't exist before the Sky deal

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 16m
    Cardiff City win promotion to the Premier League for the first time

    It's formally correct, if rather misleading.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AveryLP said:



    These Krugmanite Obama apologists are desperate to point to the UK as a failed experiment in austerity economics.

    And each day they rant the UK economy strengthens, growing faster than its main EU competitors and attracting continued support from the bond markets and rating agencies.

    It is Margaret and the 364 economists all over again.

    Osborne and the UK are turning out to be the models for how to manage fiscal consolidation optimally.

    The New York Times is raging at this reality.

    Austerity is not working in the EU either: Krugman is right. Stop spinning and prepare for Osborne's forthcoming Plan A for growth!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Thatchers death has been good for the Tories in the sense its stopped Labour getting their attack lines over during a crucial period of the local elections.

    Like these double yellow lines in Cambridge...
    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm

    If Labour hit the lower end of exceptions then the shout will be blame Thatcher.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,541

    Unless anything major happens between now and 9am, I'm going to run an Open thread tomorrow morning.

    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Hope that meets with your approval.

    Hell no. Are we the Daily Express discussion thread?

    Ok, I'll do a thread.
    Thanks TSE - sorry, my comment was half in jest. But there isn't going to be much to say in good taste about the funeral - would feel strange to give a running commentary on clothing, expressions, etc. - so we may as well talk about the economy...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300


    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Why verger is spelt virger?
  • Unless anything major happens between now and 9am, I'm going to run an Open thread tomorrow morning.

    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Hope that meets with your approval.

    Hell no. Are we the Daily Express discussion thread?

    Ok, I'll do a thread.
    Thanks TSE - sorry, my comment was half in jest. But there isn't going to be much to say in good taste about the funeral - would feel strange to give a running commentary on clothing, expressions, etc. - so we may as well talk about the economy...
    I understand.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @Avery
    ... a Britain carried aloft by the march of the makers?

    Well it is, tim.

    The UK is carrying the EU out of recession on the roof racks of Sunderland Nissans.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT @lifeinamarkettown

    "Charles is effectively making an argument for protectionism in the labour market"

    Almost, and that's what I'm struggling with - I'm a nature free marketeer, believe in specialisation of labour, ability to maximise global wealth, etc.

    However, when you are in a situation where a large number of UK residents are non-competitive for roles then you have a situation where the the benefits of free trade are being privatised while the costs are socialised.

    That was fine where people were sufficiently skilled that they could transfer relatively easily to a new role (so the social costs were transitory in nature) or where they had the ability to accept low-waged roles where they added value to the employer (now prevented because of the minimum wage).

    As it appears today, though, there is a long-term deadweight cost on the economy (not to mention the devastating personal cost for people who are long-term unemployed/unemployable).

    I can quite accept that this problem is the result of the failing of our education system and perverse welfare incentives (both of which are being fixed).

    However, the issue reduces to 3 options:

    1) Accept the deadweight cost - and fund it through taxation/crowding-out of more rational state spending (i.e. the state pays in the first instance)

    2) Accept the deadweight cost and seek to recapture a portion of the cost specifically from those who are benefiting (basically the employers who are using the free market in labour to maximise their profits and ignoring the social costs of their choices)

    3) Eliminate the deadweight cost through a protectionist job market, at the cost of a more inefficient economy and, presumably, lower GDP.

    The fundamental point is there is a cost and it needs to be paid for. Approach (2) [and there is no reason why these should be either or] at least tries to push more of the cost on to those who capture the benefits rather than being a charge to the general economy
  • tim said:

    Football didn't exist before the Sky deal

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 16m
    Cardiff City win promotion to the Premier League for the first time

    Well the Premier League didn't!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    OTOH, and to contradict myself, I've just realised the Thatcher funeral cortege rolls through Westminster and the City, exclusively.

    There will surely be enough mildly curious tourists in the former, and enough sincerely mourning bankers in the latter, to guarantee a fairly decent turnout.

    It's a bit of a pain for us - we have +Fulham being installed as the resident vicar of our family church tomorrow & Fleet Street is going to be a 'mare to navigate.

    Unfortunately I'm off to Italy for dinner anyway.
    I'm going to watch the cortege. Don't give a F if I'm the only one there. She was the greatest PM since Churchill, by far, and almost certainly the last British prime minister with global stature.

    RIP.

    Then I am getting sloshed with argumentative Hollywood lefties in W11.

    I'd go to St. Dunstan's to watch it from there if I wasn't travelling for work.
  • Via twitter.

    3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!

    Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.

    Must be a huge chance that Gareth Bale Hotspurs will be missing Gareth Bale next season if they miss out on Champs League.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Roger said:

    There seems to be a concerted attack on Osborne's competence on all the news channels. To paraphrase he f*ucked up the budget badly

    It reminds me of the early 1980s, Roger.

    You need to plough a lonely furrow to reap a harvest.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950

    Via twitter.

    3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!

    Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.

    Time to invite the big Scottish clubs?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Dr Spyn

    It is true. Domestic politics has all but been suspended and will continue to be up until this sunday. I don't think this will harm the Labour vote share that much but I think it has probably stopped UKIP getting the air it needs in these locals.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950

    Fat_Steve said:

    I see what you've done with that thread header, TSE.
    When Mike comes back, I'm t-e-l-l-i-n-g on you.

    *Innocent Face*

    I have to thank Mike for giving me the opportunity to edit PB in his absence.

    Today I have written an Ed is Crap thread and an ABBA themed nighthawks.

    Best day ever.

    I thought you said you were a Steps fan? Or was it Depeche Mode?

    :)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Paradoxically, this could be good news for Osborne by providing intellectual cover for a shift to a more rational, expansionary economic policy, probably called, as is now traditional, Plan A.
    I think that is very unlikely indeed. A change will be a massive U-turn, I don't see any way that wouldn't be the case.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950
    tim said:

    Football didn't exist before the Sky deal

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 16m
    Cardiff City win promotion to the Premier League for the first time

    Premier League came about in time for the 1992-1993 season.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013


    I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.

    Why verger is spelt virger?
    My guess (and I don't know) is that this is yet another example of mistaken 18th century classical scholarship when various French words imported into English in the middle ages were "corrected" by changing their spelling to reflect the original latin root.

    Virga in Latin is a rod of office. Verger is a defined as a holder of a rod of office. Verger is Middle French.

    I need access to the OED to confirm. I have it on my currently inaccessible server but no chance of checking this evening.

  • Fat_Steve said:

    I see what you've done with that thread header, TSE.
    When Mike comes back, I'm t-e-l-l-i-n-g on you.

    *Innocent Face*

    I have to thank Mike for giving me the opportunity to edit PB in his absence.

    Today I have written an Ed is Crap thread and an ABBA themed nighthawks.

    Best day ever.

    I thought you said you were a Steps fan? Or was it Depeche Mode?

    :)
    I'm a fan of good music.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    @IoS

    Have only had one leaflet from Lib Dems - who are facing both ways over proposals to add extensions to parking zones. Yes they want a workable scheme, but they are trying to gauge opinion on it. RPS is going to take £130+ from households with 2 cars. Nice way to raise council tax...

    Looks as if they want to blame The Mayor for taking their policy across the City.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Via twitter.

    3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!

    Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.

    Time to invite the big Scottish clubs?
    What big Scottish clubs? Only kidding:-)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    That was fine where people were sufficiently skilled that they could transfer relatively easily to a new role (so the social costs were transitory in nature) or where they had the ability to accept low-waged roles where they added value to the employer (now prevented because of the minimum wage).
    There is precious little evidence that the minimum wage impacted employment profiles, or overall employment rates, in so far as they relate to the social cost.

    http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/1560/1/WRAP_Stewart_twerp630.pdf

    "No significant adverse employment effects are found for any of the four demographic groups considered (adult and youth, men and women) or in any of the three datasets used."

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp290.pdf

    "All the initial studies failed to find any adverse effect of the minimum wage on employment."

    http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/19742/

    "There is little or no evidence of any employment effects. The reasons for this include: an impact on hours rather than workers; employer wage setting and labour market frictions; offsets via the tax credit system; incomplete compliance; improvements in productivity; an increase in the relative price of minimum wage-produced consumer services; and a reduction in the relative profits of firms employing low paid workers."

    There were good reasons to believe a minimum wage would change the nature of employment among low-skilled workers, but it hasn't happened as far as anyone can tell, and I think we've arrived at the point where we should assume the effect is either very limited or non-existent.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    IOS said:

    Dr Spyn

    It is true. Domestic politics has all but been suspended and will continue to be up until this sunday. I don't think this will harm the Labour vote share that much but I think it has probably stopped UKIP getting the air it needs in these locals.

    Thatcher's funeral has lit a light in the hearts and minds of the British people.

    The evil darkness of socialism is being cleansed in the new clarity of vision.

    The narrowing ICM polling gap is but a small ray of light than heralds the coming sun.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Grandiose said:

    A change will be a massive U-turn, I don't see any way that wouldn't be the case.

    If you're going to do a u-turn you may as well make it massive. SeanT is right, do the thing with enough gusto and Ed Balls won't know what hit him.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    Osborne has not changed spending plans.

    You're absolutely right, Avery, when it came to the choice between his spending plans and his fiscal targets he kept the former and dropped the latter.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited April 2013
    virger, n. Etymology: variant of verger n.2, after virge n. or medieval Latin virgārius. First recorded 1671.

    verger, n.2 Etymology: probably < Anglo-Norman *verger, < verge verge n.1 Compare Old French vergiere (vergeur) gauger, vergier maker of rings, obsolete French verger verger (Cotgrave); also medieval Latin virgārius , and virger n. First recorded 15th century.
  • Via twitter.

    3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!

    Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.

    Must be a huge chance that Gareth Bale Hotspurs will be missing Gareth Bale next season if they miss out on Champs League.
    They'll be able to buy a new team with the money they get for him.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Avery

    Shame the right is split 3 ways then.
  • How about this for the morning thread?

    What Titanium Ed Miliband and the Iron Lady have in common

    With his love of bold ideas, the Labour Party leader is a pretender to the Thatcher legacy

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9997725/What-Titanium-Ed-Miliband-and-the-Iron-Lady-have-in-common.html
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    I'm a fan of good music.

    And Crystal Swing.
  • Neil said:


    I'm a fan of good music.

    And Crystal Swing.
    I'm no longer a fan of Crystal Swing.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    IOS said:

    Avery

    Shame the right is split 3 ways then.

    It was. But no more.

    Margaret's ascension has been a unifier for the right.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    A change will be a massive U-turn, I don't see any way that wouldn't be the case.

    If you're going to do a u-turn you may as well make it massive. SeanT is right, do the thing with enough gusto and Ed Balls won't know what hit him.
    I think this is mistaken. There's nowhere near enough time to reposition the Tories following an announcement, which they'll need to do: it won't be just Ed Balls who'll struggle to describe the Tories (/government). It is essential at the ballot box the voter knows what he or she is being asked to vote for.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    That's worth a thread in itself! Was it the realisation that the lead singer would only ever love close family members that did it for you? Or their failure to ever follow up on the undeniably wonderful 'Tequila' single?
  • Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 42s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: a 7 point Labour lead - lowest since PM's EU speech in Jan. Con 33%, Lab 40%, UKIP 11%, LD 10%. Ed's woes deepen.
  • Neil said:

    @TSE

    That's worth a thread in itself! Was it the realisation that the lead singer would only ever love close family members that did it for you? Or their failure to ever follow up on the undeniably wonderful 'Tequila' single?

    According to some friends, when Lady Thatcher died, Crystal Swing posted things on facebook that rejoiced in the great lady's death;
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    Osborne has not changed spending plans.

    You're absolutely right, Avery, when it came to the choice between his spending plans and his fiscal targets he kept the former and dropped the latter.

    Naughty Neil.

    I have spent much time today explaining to LIAMT, Surbiton, Mister Brooke, tim and other doubters, that George has never abandoned his primary fiscal mandate of eliminating the CACB over a rolling five year period.

    He has extended the deadline on his supplementary target of reducing PSND as a % of GDP, but as this extension makes no allowance for the sale of bank or other related asset sales it is meaningless as a credible forecast. The best that can be said of it is that it is a snapshot taken in March 2013 which is based on limited and inadequate information.

This discussion has been closed.