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If you’ve always been a lurker, So if you’made up your mind, that your lurking, must come to an end, take a chance, and start posting on PB, then this thread is for you. I’m sure once you start posting, you’ll be, having the time of your life.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3j2NYZ8FKs
When Mike comes back, I'm t-e-l-l-i-n-g on you.
Betting
Before
Advice
(tis the PB motto)
I have to thank Mike for giving me the opportunity to edit PB in his absence.
Today I have written an Ed is Crap thread and an ABBA themed nighthawks.
Best day ever.
I'm not sure what threads to run tomorrow, tomorrow is going to be a weird day for politics.
Events to have had no noticable effect on the polls (via Wikipedia):
Bob Diamond resigns as the Chief Executive of British bank Barclays following a scandal in which the bank tried to manipulate the Libor and Euribor interest rates systems.
London hosts the 2012 Summer Olympic Games, beginning with an opening ceremony, and making the UK capital the first city to host the Games for a third time.
West Coast franchise problems
The UK's largest independent investigation into police wrongdoing will be conducted following damning reports into the 1989 Hillsborough disaster
British Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond sign the Edinburgh Agreement - a deal setting out the terms of a referendum on Scottish independence.
Saville et al.
Prime Minister David Cameron orders a fresh investigation into allegations of sexual abuse involving a senior Conservative politician from the Thatcher era. The allegations concern sexual abuse at children's homes in Wales during the 1970s and 1980s
Conservative MP Nadine Dorries is suspended from the party after her decision to appear on the reality television series I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here!.
Elections are held to choose 41 Police and Crime Commissioners in England and Wales.
Education Secretary Michael Gove and Rotherham Council are to launch separate investigations after three children were removed from their foster parents because the couple belong to the UK Independence Party.
Leveson reports
The UK Independence Party achieve second place in Middlesbrough and Rotherham, beating the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Government plans to redraw constituency boundaries before the next general election are defeated in the House of Commons by 334 to 292.
Former government Minister Chris Huhne pleads guilty to perverting the course of justice over claims he caused his ex-wife to accept speeding points he had incurred. He also announces his intention to resign his House of Commons seat.
The House of Commons votes 400 to 175 in favour of a vote on the bill to legalise same-sex marriage in England and Wales.
Secretary of State for Education Michael Gove confirms that plans to replace the General Certificate of Secondary Education with a new English Baccalaureate qualification have been abandoned.
UK loses top AAA credit rating for first time since 1978 after being downgraded by the ratings agency Moody's
The Eastleigh by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of Chris Huhne, sees the Liberal Democrats hold the seat despite a UKIP surge that pushes the Conservatives into third place.
Prime Minister David Cameron says talks between himself and the leaders of the UK's other main political parties on the recommendations of the Leveson report have broken down, and that he intends to publish a Royal Charter on press regulations.
The date for the Scottish independence referendum is announced as 18 September 2014
and probably Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher dies following a stroke.
[Edit: in terms of Labour's lead over the Tories, that is. There has been a shift in UKIP upward, and a slight increase in LD. Those changes have been gradual across the whole year.]
Put like that, it's interesting
I'm sure I'm not misremembering that, say, 5 years ago, the polls were more dynamic.
There might be some small tweaks to methodology etc. that might influence this - But I don;t think they would explain the degree of difference between then and now.
Has something changed?
The White House is doing its usual we don't know story and of course first routes of suspicion often change as time goes on but the blunt facts are the first actions of the investigators was to search a house occupied by Arabs, believed Saudi. This does parallel with initial stories about the detention of a Saudi who was at the scene. I mentioned last night that police had arrested a second individual, reportedly on an 'unrelated issue' but as it turns most definitely related to the man held by police.
Without going into too much detail the individuals of interest have links to area that is best described as a restive area in Southern Saudi Arabia
Are these the perpetrators? We do not know but investigators are seeking at least one other.
It should be noted that in the heat of a situation people do get questioned and released (I know its happened to me) but the 'Saudi' that stories mentioned last night reportedly bore some injuries that in themselves aroused suspicion.
Long way to go and things may change but there you are as it stands.
"Wind of Change" by the Scorpions.
Written during a trip to Moscow in 1989, it was played endlessly in the Soviet Union right up to and through its dissolution.
Play it tonight for Maggie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KcRl1p2waM
I follow the Moskva
Down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of change
An August summer night
Soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of change
The world is closing in
Did you ever think
That we could be so close, like brothers
The future's in the air
I can feel it everywhere
Blowing with the wind of change
Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away
in the wind of change
Walking down the street
Distant memories
Are buried in the past forever
I follow the Moskva
Down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of change
Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams
With you and me
Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away
in the wind of change
The wind of change
Blows straight into the face of time
Like a stormwind that will ring the freedom bell
For peace of mind
Let your balalaika sing
What my guitar wants to say
Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams
With you and me
Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away
in the wind of change
Play it tonight for Maggie."
One day someone may explain to my satisfaction how internal political and economic reform in the Eastern Bloc constituted a wartime victory for the West, let alone a single-handed triumph for the leader of a relatively unimportant country off the coast of western Europe.
But I doubt it.
what are we to make that that the devices used in Boston are of a similar nature of those used as IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan?
She converted him to Thatcherism and the rest is history.
Following on from his IMF shellacking:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100212411/george-osbornes-favourite-economists-may-have-got-their-sums-wrong-that-cant-be-good-for-the-chancellor/
Conservatism almost entirely discredited.
"But Gorbachev said on Monday that his relationship with Thatcher helped bring change and tear down the Iron Curtain."
http://news.in.msn.com/international/gorbachev-says-exceptional-thatcher-helped-end-cold-war
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/04/16/why-we-fear-terrorism/
If I thought he wasn't just saying what politicians always say in these circumstances, then maybe.
"Slovakia and the United States stand shoulder to shoulder in the cause of freedom"
Etc, etc.
On tonight of all nights.
Shame on you.
On tonight of all nights."
Is tonight like Maundy Thursday for you, or something? "Take this iron, and eat of it. This is the iron of the Iron Lady. It has been shed for you and for all, so that income tax may be lowered. Do this in memory of me."
Well, if last night's ICM is anything to go by, that's the Tories' only hope of getting back to 40%.
If the Keynesians can force Osborne into a perceived U-turn or change of plan to obvious stimuli then it gives legitimacy to the Balls platform.
Whatever Osborne does he mustn't allow it to be seen as a retreat or endorsement of any strategy other than 'per ardua ad astra'.
Margaret Thatcher - RIP
.....................................
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=php1eERRhmk
So all we see is empty bluster and bullshine from the biggest charlatan the post of Chancellor has ever had the misfortune to have as incumbent.
Look around you - the Austerity experiment is a disaster. It's a disaster for the country due to its failure and its a rolling disaster for you Tories because its wholly undermined any claim to competence you erroneously thought you had.
There is not going to be much growth between now and 2015. The goal is wide open for Labour and the keeper is prostrate on the ground.
I suspect there will be only one thing most of you will be talking about tomorrow morning.
Hope that meets with your approval.
Take Greece for example.
Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said that Greece has completed most of the fiscal adjustment and efforts needed to recover competitiveness.
"We have completed two thirds of the fiscal adjustment and three quarters of the adjustment of the economy’s competitiveness," he said at a press conference in Athens.
Stournaras assured that the Greek economy is rapidly regaining trust and that the country needs to remain calm and focused.
He added that the goal is to obtain a primary surplus this year in order to ease the debt reductions requested by international lenders and that the government would be willing to recover 15,000 public sector workers by the end of 2014 and 4,000 as early as the end of this year.
Also, Deputy Finance Minister Christos Staikouras assured that €20bn in deposits have returned to the banking system.
Meanwhile, the country held a debt auction on Tuesday that allowed €1.625bn to be raised in three-month bills at a yield of 4.05% and a bid-to-cover rate of 1.65, according to the Greek Treasury.
Hopefully, at the end of it all, you righties and lefties can, ultimately, get over her, and move on with your lives. Please.
It is terrible news for the Blairites who have spent the week undermining Ed Miliband only to find out Ed Balls may have been right all along.
I doubt it will be calamitous. Assuming nothing outrageous happens, by the weekend it will be forgotten. It might be a shock to some to realise that Thatcher was just a politician after all. But that's probably a good thing for the Tories.
I doubt it will be calamitous. Assuming nothing outrageous happens, by the weekend it will be forgotten. It might be a shock to some to realise that Thatcher was just a politician after all. But that's probably a good thing for the Tories.
A fair few on the left could do with realising that, too.
Thatchers death has been good for the Tories in the sense its stopped Labour getting their attack lines over during a crucial period of the local elections.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-response-to-critique/
The substance of their argument is not affected by the "mistakes", they say.
I wouldn't bet against a chess grandmaster.
There is a spillover from the debate in the US over austerity vs. stimulus, whereby the Democrat supporting 'liberal' press are trying to endorse Obama's 'neither fish nor fowl' approach to economic management.
These Krugmanite Obama apologists are desperate to point to the UK as a failed experiment in austerity economics.
And each day they rant the UK economy strengthens, growing faster than its main EU competitors and attracting continued support from the bond markets and rating agencies.
It is Margaret and the 364 economists all over again.
Osborne and the UK are turning out to be the models for how to manage fiscal consolidation optimally.
The New York Times is raging against this reality.
All doing worse than the Uk.
Or do you think that a single academic counterclaim is sufficient to "discredit" two respected thinkers without further contention?
Osborne has not changed spending plans.
The $245 bn comes from shortfalls in government receipts due to lower than expected global and, in particular, EU growth.
His control of spending is so tight all he needed to do to weather the fall in growth was to extend the debt reduction supplementary target.
So no extraordinary stimulus and none needed.
The mortgage and housing initiative is aimed as much to bank restructuring and share sale needs as it is to general growth stimulus. I accept though that it is also designed to kickstart private sector investment in house building and corresponding household demand but this is a subsidiary, if still important, driver.
3 Welsh teams in the premiership next season now!
Swansea, Cardiff and Gareth Bale.
Unfortunately I'm off to Italy for dinner anyway.
The fact that it happens to be a good thing now is merely a collateral benefit.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm
If Labour hit the lower end of exceptions then the shout will be blame Thatcher.
The UK is carrying the EU out of recession on the roof racks of Sunderland Nissans.
"Charles is effectively making an argument for protectionism in the labour market"
Almost, and that's what I'm struggling with - I'm a nature free marketeer, believe in specialisation of labour, ability to maximise global wealth, etc.
However, when you are in a situation where a large number of UK residents are non-competitive for roles then you have a situation where the the benefits of free trade are being privatised while the costs are socialised.
That was fine where people were sufficiently skilled that they could transfer relatively easily to a new role (so the social costs were transitory in nature) or where they had the ability to accept low-waged roles where they added value to the employer (now prevented because of the minimum wage).
As it appears today, though, there is a long-term deadweight cost on the economy (not to mention the devastating personal cost for people who are long-term unemployed/unemployable).
I can quite accept that this problem is the result of the failing of our education system and perverse welfare incentives (both of which are being fixed).
However, the issue reduces to 3 options:
1) Accept the deadweight cost - and fund it through taxation/crowding-out of more rational state spending (i.e. the state pays in the first instance)
2) Accept the deadweight cost and seek to recapture a portion of the cost specifically from those who are benefiting (basically the employers who are using the free market in labour to maximise their profits and ignoring the social costs of their choices)
3) Eliminate the deadweight cost through a protectionist job market, at the cost of a more inefficient economy and, presumably, lower GDP.
The fundamental point is there is a cost and it needs to be paid for. Approach (2) [and there is no reason why these should be either or] at least tries to push more of the cost on to those who capture the benefits rather than being a charge to the general economy
You need to plough a lonely furrow to reap a harvest.
It is true. Domestic politics has all but been suspended and will continue to be up until this sunday. I don't think this will harm the Labour vote share that much but I think it has probably stopped UKIP getting the air it needs in these locals.
Virga in Latin is a rod of office. Verger is a defined as a holder of a rod of office. Verger is Middle French.
I need access to the OED to confirm. I have it on my currently inaccessible server but no chance of checking this evening.
Have only had one leaflet from Lib Dems - who are facing both ways over proposals to add extensions to parking zones. Yes they want a workable scheme, but they are trying to gauge opinion on it. RPS is going to take £130+ from households with 2 cars. Nice way to raise council tax...
Looks as if they want to blame The Mayor for taking their policy across the City.
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/1560/1/WRAP_Stewart_twerp630.pdf
"No significant adverse employment effects are found for any of the four demographic groups considered (adult and youth, men and women) or in any of the three datasets used."
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp290.pdf
"All the initial studies failed to find any adverse effect of the minimum wage on employment."
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/19742/
"There is little or no evidence of any employment effects. The reasons for this include: an impact on hours rather than workers; employer wage setting and labour market frictions; offsets via the tax credit system; incomplete compliance; improvements in productivity; an increase in the relative price of minimum wage-produced consumer services; and a reduction in the relative profits of firms employing low paid workers."
There were good reasons to believe a minimum wage would change the nature of employment among low-skilled workers, but it hasn't happened as far as anyone can tell, and I think we've arrived at the point where we should assume the effect is either very limited or non-existent.
The evil darkness of socialism is being cleansed in the new clarity of vision.
The narrowing ICM polling gap is but a small ray of light than heralds the coming sun.
verger, n.2 Etymology: probably < Anglo-Norman *verger, < verge verge n.1 Compare Old French vergiere (vergeur) gauger, vergier maker of rings, obsolete French verger verger (Cotgrave); also medieval Latin virgārius , and virger n. First recorded 15th century.
Shame the right is split 3 ways then.
What Titanium Ed Miliband and the Iron Lady have in common
With his love of bold ideas, the Labour Party leader is a pretender to the Thatcher legacy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9997725/What-Titanium-Ed-Miliband-and-the-Iron-Lady-have-in-common.html
Margaret's ascension has been a unifier for the right.
That's worth a thread in itself! Was it the realisation that the lead singer would only ever love close family members that did it for you? Or their failure to ever follow up on the undeniably wonderful 'Tequila' single?
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: a 7 point Labour lead - lowest since PM's EU speech in Jan. Con 33%, Lab 40%, UKIP 11%, LD 10%. Ed's woes deepen.
I have spent much time today explaining to LIAMT, Surbiton, Mister Brooke, tim and other doubters, that George has never abandoned his primary fiscal mandate of eliminating the CACB over a rolling five year period.
He has extended the deadline on his supplementary target of reducing PSND as a % of GDP, but as this extension makes no allowance for the sale of bank or other related asset sales it is meaningless as a credible forecast. The best that can be said of it is that it is a snapshot taken in March 2013 which is based on limited and inadequate information.