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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being desc

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories move to 21% in a YouGov poll and this is being described as a “surge”

Who'd have thought only four months ago that the Tories moving to 21% rating in a national voting intention poll would be described as a "surge" pic.twitter.com/eiAKTwSdSs

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    Shows how thoroughly they have been broken by Brexit. Now they must beg for BXP scraps and hope that is enough.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    Shows how thoroughly they have been broken by Brexit. Now they must beg for BXP scraps and hope that is enough.

    Couldn't have happened to a "nicer" party !
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Who'd have thought this LD would be disappointed by a 19% poll rating?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Electoral Calculus on tonight's Yougov numbers gives Labour 210, Brexit Party 159, Tories 155, SNP 56, LDs 47.


    So Nigel Farage is Kingmaker once the DUP, Greens and PC are added
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Polls seem a waste of money at the moment for anything other than newspapers without a decent front page story.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    The next logical step in our continuing political breakdown is for all of the above to drop a couple more points, and the Greens to be up in the mix as well.

    A five way is just about what we deserve right now.

    Good night all.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

    He said he was gay but believed homosexual behaviour was wrong and therefore didn't have any relationships. I don't think that leaves much scope for speculation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    stodge said:

    Who'd have thought this LD would be disappointed by a 19% poll rating?

    :+1:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

    He said he was gay but believed homosexual behaviour was wrong and therefore didn't have any relationships. I don't think that leaves much scope for speculation.
    Perhaps he is a Catholic priest?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

    He said he was gay but believed homosexual behaviour was wrong and therefore didn't have any relationships. I don't think that leaves much scope for speculation.
    Perhaps he is a Catholic priest?
    Surely his knowledge of other religions would be better?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I reckon @IsabelOakeshott is rooting for Rory.

    Who would have thought it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1140016567612321793?s=20

    Looks like a clear shift from Boris v Hunt this morning to Boris v Gove tonight as the final 2. Hancock's backers seem to be shifting to the Environment Secretary rather than the Health Secretary and McVey has also backed Boris Johnson rather than Jeremy Hunt
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1139988710139842561
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1140016567612321793?s=20

    Looks like a clear shift from Boris v Hunt this morning to Boris v Gove tonight as the final 2. Hancock's backers seem to be shifting to the Environment Secretary rather than the Health Secretary and McVey has also backed Boris Johnson rather than Jeremy Hunt

    Good job there isn't a brewing international incident for an embattled FS to grandstand and sabre rattle on the news about then. We would then be in some danger of blundering into something nasty.
    Oh wait...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794

    She can do what she likes... We're heading for a general election to sort this out one way or another.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794

    Claiming that May voted for Rory Stewart.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    williamglenn said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794

    Claiming that May voted for Rory Stewart.
    "Friends" claim she voted for Rory The Tory... I wasn't aware she had any friends. ;)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    For non Tories the leadership race could get more interesting if it does end up a Johnson v Gove fight .

    That could turn very ugly !
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

    To be fair to @foxy - assuming I read the blockquotes right - viceroy said that he was gay but chose abstinence because he didn’t approve of homosexual sex
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794

    She can do what she likes... We're heading for a general election to sort this out one way or another.
    She's another backbench vote against No Deal though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Who would have thought Farage’s Party would be leading in six of the last nine polls and no one would really mention it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    After failed attempts with Davis and Leadsom it looks like my alma mater of Warwick University will finally get an alumni in No 10 after all, Boris' girlfriend Carrie Symonds is a Warwick graduate and is set to be the wife of Boris once his divorce is completed

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145409/How-Boris-Johnson-spends-evenings-painting-girlfriend-marry-hes-divorced.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

    To be fair to @foxy - assuming I read the blockquotes right - viceroy said that he was gay but chose abstinence because he didn’t approve of homosexual sex
    Yes, but perhaps that is enough on the topic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    nico67 said:

    For non Tories the leadership race could get more interesting if it does end up a Johnson v Gove fight .

    That could turn very ugly !

    That’s the one I'm hoping for. Blood on the Tracks. Most of it Johnson's.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794

    She can do what she likes... We're heading for a general election to sort this out one way or another.
    She's another backbench vote against No Deal though.
    No Deal can only happen after a general election if we get a Con/Brexit Party coalition. Otherwise it's not happening.

    So TM's view on the matter is immaterial one way or another... What this is all about is that (as with her 0% carbon by 2050 bullshit the other day) she's casting around still desperately trying to to be relevant... when in fact the political tide has already gone out on her.

    Deep down she knows that irrelevance and obscurity are to be her fate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Divisions emerging in camp Hunt as both Rudd and Mordaunt refusing to back his new plans to reduce the abortion limit.


    Mrs Hunt's pet name for Jeremy meanwhile is revealed as 'Mr Big Rice' (she also has a Warwick connection being a former student recruiter for the university)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145499/Theresa-threatens-block-Brexit-No-Deal-voting-Remainer-Rory-Stewart-Tory-contest.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145473/Jeremy-Hunts-wife-Lucia-reveals-pet-Mr-Big-Rice.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    After failed attempts with Davis and Leadsom it looks like my alma mater of Warwick University will finally get an alumni in No 10 after all, Boris' girlfriend Carrie Symonds is a Warwick graduate and is set to be the wife of Boris once his divorce is completed

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145409/How-Boris-Johnson-spends-evenings-painting-girlfriend-marry-hes-divorced.html

    It seems she studied Theatre Studies.

    How could that possibly be of any assistance to Boris and his campaign to win the leadership?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    GIN1138 said:

    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1140016953488289794

    She can do what she likes... We're heading for a general election to sort this out one way or another.
    She's another backbench vote against No Deal though.
    No Deal can only happen after a general election if we get a Con/Brexit Party coalition. Otherwise it's not happening.

    So TM's view on the matter is immaterial one way or another... What this is all about is that (as with her 0% carbon by 2050 bullshit the other day) she's casting around still desperately trying to to be relevant... when in fact the political tide has already gone out on her.

    Deep down she knows that irrelevance and obscurity are to be her fate.
    Every single backbench vote could be relevant this summer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Maybe. Just maybe, this poll may soften Boris' numbers. The poll, supposedly showing a big Tory lead with him in charge, must have had an influence.
    Yet, here we are. With Boris almost certain to win. And the Tories have surged into a tie for second place!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Gove describes himself as the Chumbawumba candidate. Does he mean he’s pissing the night away?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Divisions emerging in camp Hunt as both Rudd and Mordaunt refusing to back his new plans to reduce the abortion limit.


    Mrs Hunt's pet name for Jeremy meanwhile is revealed as 'Mr Big Rice'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145499/Theresa-threatens-block-Brexit-No-Deal-voting-Remainer-Rory-Stewart-Tory-contest.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145473/Jeremy-Hunts-wife-Lucia-reveals-pet-Mr-Big-Rice.html

    He doesn’t have a plan to reduce the abortion limit

    He said he would vote to do so in a free vote but that it wasn’t government policy and wouldn’t be under his administration
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories are on 21% and Corbyn still doesn't have a lead over them.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    stodge said:

    Who'd have thought this LD would be disappointed by a 19% poll rating?

    We live in interesting times....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    dixiedean said:

    Maybe. Just maybe, this poll may soften Boris' numbers. The poll, supposedly showing a big Tory lead with him in charge, must have had an influence.
    Yet, here we are. With Boris almost certain to win. And the Tories have surged into a tie for second place!

    May is still Tory leader not Boris, just on this poll it would be Farage Kingmaker rather than a Boris majority
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are on 21% and Corbyn still doesn't have a lead over them.

    They are intimately tied. Fear of a Corbyn majority, and fear of a Tory majority were major drivers of votes. Take away that fear, and you are left with only those voting positively. About half of the GE vote for each.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gove is still 22, which must be value IMO.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1139988710139842561

    Cos hey people with Huge houses which are big enough to house granny in a special annex are those most in need of state assistance?

    Unless of course granny needs social care support from the council and on that case it’s unlikely any will be available.

    Tax relief for grannies in the attic - is that what we have come to?
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    I face the dilemma if there's a General Election this summer - do I vote Tory again on the promise of a No Deal even though that is what they promised last time (No Deal better than a Bad Deal) or do I take a chance with them again?

    Millions will be asking themselves the same question.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    For a foregone conclusion, Boris is still a good price, as if punters (and layers) still half-expect him to self-destruct.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Latest EMA:

    Con 22%, Lab 25%. LD 18%. BXP 22%

    Lab gain 35 seats from Con
    LD gain 26 seats, 4 from Lab and 22 from Con
    BXP gain 75 seats, 11 from Lab and 64 from Con.

    Con 182 seats
    Lab 275 (51 short of overall majority)
    LD 38
    BXP 75
    SNP 57
    Grn 1
    PC 4
    NI 18
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I predict the Tories will be back in the 30s once they choose a new leader.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/Julian5News/status/1139858995286609920
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    Anyone having a tipple? Whisky and cola here.

    I was going to go out but don't think I can be bothered.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited June 2019
    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    AndyJS said:

    Gove is still 22, which must be value IMO.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Yes, I think so too, as a trading bet. He's been picking up several MPs in the last day or two - there's a bit of a sense that the shock-horror stuff about cocaine was overblown in the light of the shifty comments of other candidates.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    (I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime).

    Don't ask questions comrade.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    I face the dilemma if there's a General Election this summer - do I vote Tory again on the promise of a No Deal even though that is what they promised last time (No Deal better than a Bad Deal) or do I take a chance with them again?

    Millions will be asking themselves the same question.

    I feel for you. My advice would be to think outside the box and vote Labour. You may find it liberating. Like cross dressing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1140004199180230656?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    AndyJS said:

    Gove is still 22, which must be value IMO.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    I agree. It's unlikely but he is the only other possible winner. The outsider in a 2 horse race should never ever ever be over 20.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Telegraph:

    "Esther McVeyBoris: Johnson is supporting my agenda - which is why I'm supporting him"

    Talk about self-centred.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Anyone having a tipple? Whisky and cola here.

    I was going to go out but don't think I can be bothered.

    Bit of Langedoc for me, having had a good night at the hustings. Swinson or Davey? both good candidates, albeit different strengths. Plenty of scope for optimism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1140018805533528069?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rottenborough said:

    Telegraph:

    "Esther McVeyBoris: Johnson is supporting my agenda - which is why I'm supporting him"

    Talk about self-centred.

    Talk about an unhelpful pledge of support. Vote Boris, get Esther's agenda!
    Not a line Lynton will be pushing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1140004199180230656?s=20

    This really should boil down to Rory vs Boris in final two. Clear difference over future of party, completely different approaches and personality.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1140017396561981440
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1139990748848381952?s=20
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited June 2019
    Foxy said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Anyone having a tipple? Whisky and cola here.

    I was going to go out but don't think I can be bothered.

    Bit of Langedoc for me, having had a good night at the hustings. Swinson or Davey? both good candidates, albeit different strengths. Plenty of scope for optimism.
    Very nice, I like red wine but can't take much as I feel like I have been hit by a bus! Whisky I can take 10+ and suffer in silence at least ha ha. Carrefour's cheapest - £5.50 in GBP for a bottle!

    And as an Unliberal but democrat, Swinson comes off to me as best.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    I predict the Tories will be back in the 30s once they choose a new leader.

    Until they too come up against reality.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.

    Need to wait for the manifesto plus John McDonnell supporting analysis but I would expect -

    - Yes, via the annual tax return.
    - No, not retrospective.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Esther McVey endorsing Boris Johnson is the first new entry on the spreadsheet for quite a long time.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1140004199180230656?s=20

    This really should boil down to Rory vs Boris in final two. Clear difference over future of party, completely different approaches and personality.
    At my Association's leadership discussion evening last night we did a straw poll and while Boris won Rory tied Gove and Hunt for second place with Javid third and Raab last of the remaining candidates
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    Assuming it is not a special Brexit-only election, the next election is going to be total tax bombshell warfare. We have not seen the like of what the Tories are going to throw at Jezza since at least 1992.

    1992 was mild mannered avuncular, bank manager John Smith doing the books.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    No doubt it will, though so far none of this is Labour policy, and both the taxes you mention come from the same report by Monbiot, sfaict from the Telegraph.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    Esther McVey endorsing Boris Johnson is the first new entry on the spreadsheet for quite a long time.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    David Mundell has endorsed Michael Gove too

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1140016567612321793?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    Unless, of course, you don't have the money to pay for your child's deposit. Most don't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    No doubt it will, though so far none of this is Labour policy, and both the taxes you mention come from the same report by Monbiot, sfaict from the Telegraph.
    Never let the truth get in the way of a good red scare story.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Foxy said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Anyone having a tipple? Whisky and cola here.

    I was going to go out but don't think I can be bothered.

    Bit of Langedoc for me, having had a good night at the hustings. Swinson or Davey? both good candidates, albeit different strengths. Plenty of scope for optimism.
    Very nice, I like red wine but can't take much as I feel like I have been hit by a bus! Whisky I can take 10+ and suffer in silence at least ha ha. Carrefour's cheapest - £5.50 in GBP for a bottle!

    And as an Unliberal but democrat, Swinson comes off to me as best.
    I'm on the red too. As I age, I can't handle anything else. Haven't drunk spirits in 10 years. As you said, on another topic, more variety is good.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1139990748848381952?s=20

    MRDA surely? In any case, I've been pondering the Saj for Foreign Secretary, if it is true Boris has promised Chancellor to Liz Truss, though I'm not really sure whether to believe that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    dixiedean said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    Unless, of course, you don't have the money to pay for your child's deposit. Most don't.
    25% of mortgages are now financed by parental contributions and in London 50% of the wealth of the average household now comes from parental contributions

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/03/parental-help-behind-25-percent-of-uk-mortgages-bank-of-mum-and-day
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    Who would have thought Farage’s Party would be leading in six of the last nine polls and no one would really mention it?

    It's a bit like the cartoon characters who run off the edge of the cliff but don't start falling until they look down.

    If we don't look maybe it isn't happening.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.

    In Ireland it is a tax on life time gifts, payable as soon as you go over the threshold.

    For children the threshold is Euro 320,000. The rate is 33% above that.

    https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/gift-and-inheritance-tax-cat/index.aspx

    Perhaps Corbyn is modelling his proposal on the Irish system?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited June 2019
    Have the Tories sunk to an even lower level today ? The thought that their MPs could be bullied by Gavin Williamson is quite something !
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    Unless, of course, you don't have the money to pay for your child's deposit. Most don't.
    25% of mortgages are now financed by parental contributions and in London 50% of the wealth of the average household now comes from parental contributions

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/03/parental-help-behind-25-percent-of-uk-mortgages-bank-of-mum-and-day
    Just part of the way that social mobility is held back. We are all in favour of it, until it reaches our own families.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    Unless, of course, you don't have the money to pay for your child's deposit. Most don't.
    25% of mortgages are now financed by parental contributions and in London 50% of the wealth of the average household now comes from parental contributions

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/03/parental-help-behind-25-percent-of-uk-mortgages-bank-of-mum-and-day
    And 75 % aren't. Not to mention the majority who aren't buying at all. However, my frustration was rather with the dismissal of every single Labour plan. The Tories seem to think that is enough, rather than having ANY plan of any kind of their own, beyond delivering Brexit that is.
    And then everything will be fine.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.

    Apart from the odiousness of taxing presents to your children, it’s a tax which is remarkably easy to get round.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    No doubt it will, though so far none of this is Labour policy, and both the taxes you mention come from the same report by Monbiot, sfaict from the Telegraph.
    The report talks about taking time to introduce these changes. More important for the GE of 2019 will be this line on main residence:

    "Since implementing a lifetime gifts tax may take time, Labour’s plans to reverse the Conservative government’s recent inheritance tax break for main residences is an important interim step"

    That will on front page of Mail for days during campaign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Barnesian said:

    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.

    In Ireland it is a tax on life time gifts, payable as soon as you go over the threshold.

    For children the threshold is Euro 320,000. The rate is 33% above that.

    https://www.revenue.ie/en/gains-gifts-and-inheritance/gift-and-inheritance-tax-cat/index.aspx

    Perhaps Corbyn is modelling his proposal on the Irish system?
    Seems to be based on: 'Passing on: options for reforming inheritance taxation' by Resolution Foundation.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    AndyJS said:

    I predict the Tories will be back in the 30s once they choose a new leader.

    I would say perhaps more like the 1950s than the 1930s.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited June 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.

    Apart from the odiousness of taxing presents to your children, it’s a tax which is remarkably easy to get round.
    I suspect it is aimed at very wealthy people who avoid IHT by gifting millions to their children or grandchildren via trusts and then surviving the seven years. It is a big loophole.

    I think Labour, if they go ahead with this, will have a high threshold (say £325,000 per child) which allows for gifting deposits on normal houses and avoids accounting for minor gifts.
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
    Vote Liberal Democrat get Corbyn could be very effective for the Tories with the middle classes if the vote stays split 4-way like this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I shall bid you good night and leave you with this calming image:

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1140016397147410432
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rottenborough said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course Corbyn's gift tax can be added to his garden tax.

    This will all provide really solid material for the GE campaign.

    Worth remembering how little time was spent by TMay in the 2017 GE campaign attacking Lab on tax. The new PM is surely going to play a very different game.

    And the thing is that this is the sort of material that will cut through with the public. Many people don't understand IHT or CGT etc - but if they are told Corbyn will tax you when you give your child money for a house deposit then they will understand it very quickly indeed.

    No doubt it will, though so far none of this is Labour policy, and both the taxes you mention come from the same report by Monbiot, sfaict from the Telegraph.
    The report talks about taking time to introduce these changes. More important for the GE of 2019 will be this line on main residence:

    "Since implementing a lifetime gifts tax may take time, Labour’s plans to reverse the Conservative government’s recent inheritance tax break for main residences is an important interim step"

    That will on front page of Mail for days during campaign.
    Yes but is it actually Labour Party policy? Sfaict, no, or not yet anyway. Is there more to this than the Telegraph trying to scare Conservatives into voting for Boris?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    williamglenn said:

    Gove describes himself as the Chumbawumba candidate. Does he mean he’s pissing the night away?

    I suppose it means he's got all the friends that money can buy.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
    Vote Liberal Democrat get Corbyn could be very effective for the Tories with the middle classes if the vote stays split 4-way like this.
    Vote Liberal Democrat, control Corbyn.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Barnesian said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
    Vote Liberal Democrat get Corbyn could be very effective for the Tories with the middle classes if the vote stays split 4-way like this.
    Vote Liberal Democrat, control Corbyn.
    Because they stopped that tuition fee increase right.......
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's not often that I quote Tim Montgomerie, let alone quote him because I approve of what he writes, but this article back in 2012 made a huge impression on me, to the extent of completely changing my view. Not many articles do that.

    It is because I value marriage so much that I have come to believe it should be extended to gay people and not kept exclusive. Because it is so beneficial an institution it should be enlarged rather than fossilised. Whereas some people see the gay marriage issue as primarily about equal rights, I see it as about social solidarity and stability. Marriage is, for want of a better word, conservatising. I don't mean in a party political sense. I mean it is one of the key social institutions that conservatives admire. It is about drawing people together. Not just the couple but also their extended family and other friends and loved ones. It is a deeply important social act that draws others to the care of the couple and draws the couple to the care of others, not least ageing parents. As Mary Ann Sieghart has written, reflecting on her own experience, most people take a different approach to marriage than to cohabitation. The preparation for marriage, its legal structure, the involvement of others in its ceremonies and celebrations, these things add up to mean that that those within marriage generally behave differently from those who haven't entered such a commitment.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html

    I too used to think that Gay marriage was unnecessary in the era of civil partnership. I was wrong, and having seen how happy getting married has made some gay friends am a supporter. It is an important part of equality.

    Viceroy clearly has some issues about his own sexuality. I hope he resolves them before it is too late.
    Unnecessary personal speculation which just undermines things.

    He said he was gay but believed homosexual behaviour was wrong and therefore didn't have any relationships. I don't think that leaves much scope for speculation.
    Perhaps he is a Catholic priest?
    I thought he was Orange.....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    rottenborough said:

    I shall bid you good night and leave you with this calming image:

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1140016397147410432

    Nice pic
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Cyclefree said:

    MikeL said:

    Re Labour's gifts tax:

    Report says it's on lifetime gifts. But when would it be paid? In same year as the gift? - ie like income so would be reported on tax return for the year with tax then payable 10 months post year end?

    What if someone made a gift 10 or 20 years ago? Is Corbyn going to go back and tax that now? What if records not kept?

    NB. I know gifts are taxable for 7 years under IHT (if person dies) so records should be kept 7 years at present. But that's a very different matter to going back over whole lifetime.

    Apart from the odiousness of taxing presents to your children, it’s a tax which is remarkably easy to get round.
    shhhhhh
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    What does the Church have to do with it?

    It was legalised civilly. It wasn't legalised for Churches, unless the Church chooses by its own choice to do it - which is surely the Churches own right?

    Why repeal it? What does taking civil rights away from anyone achieve?

    I don't view gay 'marriage' as a civil right.

    Why not? Since this is a civil law not a religious one, the Churches make religious decisions, give me one civil reason why gay people should be denied marriage.
    Because I don't view gay 'marriage' as being equal to actual, real marriage. I don't view it as legitimate which is why I wouldn't attend one. It's as simple as that.
    Sorry "I don't view" is not a civil reason to deny equality before the law.

    If I write "I don't view interracial 'marriage' as being ..." would that be a valid reason to deny people equality before the law? No.

    The Churches can deny it if they want but give a civil reason to deny it in law.
    Homosexual behaviour is very different to the pigmentation of someone's skin, and it is a controversial behaviour in terms of morality and religion.

    Bit of a silly comparison to make. But I can see why you would think that if you personally don't have moral/religious objections to homosexual behaviour.
    Religion is a matter for Church not state.

    Civil law has f*** all to do with religion or morals. I am straight but I am also an atheist. God played no part in my wedding. In fact as a civil wedding ceremony, by law religion was forbidden from my wedding ceremony.

    If you have religious concerns take them up with your Church, who can decide laws on your Churches types of weddings. If your Church doesn't want to hold religious gay marriages they don't have to. But your religion has nothing to do with our laws.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
    Vote Liberal Democrat get Corbyn could be very effective for the Tories with the middle classes if the vote stays split 4-way like this.
    Thats the thing about 4 parties within a few votes of each other. Those scares don't work.

    The future is bright, the future is orange B)
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    rottenborough said:

    I shall bid you good night and leave you with this calming image:

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1140016397147410432

    Exhibit 1 in the case for not moving the clocks forward in the summer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
    Vote Liberal Democrat get Corbyn could be very effective for the Tories with the middle classes if the vote stays split 4-way like this.
    Thats the thing about 4 parties within a few votes of each other. Those scares don't work.

    The future is bright, the future is orange B)
    Yes they do work. 1983 saw to that. The LDs and their predecessors have been within a few percent many times before, they've never broken through to the hundreds of seats.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019
    Floater said:

    rottenborough said:

    I shall bid you good night and leave you with this calming image:

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1140016397147410432

    Nice pic
    Land of the 11 o'clock sun.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Floater said:

    Barnesian said:

    Viceroy_of_Orange said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    The other thing about these tax proposals is that they can very easily "trump" views on Brexit.

    Suppose someone is historically a Conservative, voted Remain and is very unhappy about leaving the EU. They've decided to vote LD or even Lab next time.

    They've got kids and know they'll need to give them a hand with a deposit in the next few years.

    Suddenly they've got a decision to make. What do they care about most - Brexit or helping their kids? Pretty obvious which will ultimately take priority for most people.

    Most people?

    What about those who will inherit sweet FA? How will they feel about Brexit?

    In any case such Remainers are much more likely to be voting for the fiscally prudent Lib Dems than Corbyn's Labour.
    Vote Liberal Democrat get Corbyn could be very effective for the Tories with the middle classes if the vote stays split 4-way like this.
    Vote Liberal Democrat, control Corbyn.
    Because they stopped that tuition fee increase right.......
    It will be a DUP style C&S, not a coalition.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited June 2019
    It'll be interesting to see what Farage does. He could disband or he could let ambition get the better of him and wreck Boris's big day. Either way time for the second referendum parties to get their act together. The only party who seem united of purpose are the SNP and the more seats they win the happier I'll be
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