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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democra
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren moves above Sanders in the fight for the WH2020 Democratic nomination
While all the focus in the UK has been on the CON leadership race there’ve been significant moves in the fight for the 2020 Democratic nomination. This comes as the many contenders, there are more than 20 of them, focus on the first national TV debates between the hopefuls later in the month. These are seen as the formal start of the campaign.
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I'm not sure Boris is that relevant, he cannot command the waves. And I think the tides of history are carrying us towards No Deal.
I agree that we need to steer carefully, nonetheless - perhaps the apt comparison is deliberately beaching a ship in a storm, to save the passengers, rather than breaking the ship on the rocks, and losing lives.
https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/tour-de-france/chris-froome-sustained-multiple-serious-injuries-criterium-du-dauphine-2019-crash-team-ineos-confirms-426961
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138865243684311041?s=20
“.... we will support him totally in his recovery, help him to recalibrate and assist him in pursuing his future goals and ambitions.”
- that sounds horribly like a career-ending crash. Sad.
Together the Sanders and Warren combined come to 28% with Yougov, more than Biden's 27% so whichever of them beats the other in Iowa or New Hampshire could well be Democratic nominee as they are both fishing in the same poll of left liberal voters
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1138859115688681473
The Duke of York is a bigger parasite than the Prince of Wales, at least the Duke of York has never fantasised about being a tampon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/12/esther-mcvey-expensed-thousands-of-pounds-for-personal-photographer
That should make him a very strong favourite given the membership and we’re now into blackish swans to stop him.
His launch speech seemed to go well and he was a Remainer but with Eurosceptic pedigree
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1138840677608054786?s=20
The BBC reported this in January:
"Pharmacists say they are struggling to obtain many common medicines including painkillers and anti-depressants.
This is leaving patients complaining of delays in getting hold of drugs and pharmacists paying over the odds for common medicines.
The BBC has found there has been a big rise in the number of drugs on the "shortage of supply" list for England.
There are 80 medicines in such short supply that the Department of Health has agreed to pay a premium for them."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631
It is a binary choice. A decision needs to be made.
He will.
Theresa May set out her stall to choose one extreme. The extreme ran away from her to become more extreme and, despite her earlier bravado she balked at racing after them. Johnson will compound her error by chasing after the extreme, only to see them recede on into the distance, while provoking the other extreme to become ever bolder in turn.
She then failed to deliver it and drew up an even softer one in the end. A Brexit so soft that Ken Clarke was happier than almost all Brexiteers.
But as this is already a problem how do you blame it on Brexit when people can point at similar problems back in January...
As I said people will probably die because of Brexit - but that doesn't mean you could pin the death on Brexit...
Hunt 8.8 (Next leader) only just ahead of Leadsom 9.2.
The essential flaw in our system is this: you can become leader with the support of less than a third of your MPs; but, to keep the job, you need the support of more than half. Every other political party I know of gives its leader some incumbency advantage, so as to guarantee a measure of stability. Ours is the only one that raises the bar higher for sitting leaders.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/06/daniel-hannan-better-to-select-the-tory-leader-like-the-dalai-lama-than-elect-him-by-this-preposterous-method.html
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/12/universal-credit-delays-a-factor-in-prostitution-government-accepts
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1138827336739172352
I dare say the families will blame Brexit in any case.
https://twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/1138863920867885056?s=21
What do we do about the places that are doomed to fail?
First, win an election that was yours to lose, having pushed your brother aside?
1.56
There have been more deaths than births in Germany every year since 1972.
Still at least Boris has experience in avoiding answering the question from 8 years doing Mayor's Question Time.
It is certainly going to be interesting.
Bulgaria really has nowhere locally that is a better place to head to. They seem like Romanians to head towards the UK or Ireland as they know a bit of English.
https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1138723136818618369?s=19
The national and local contingencies in place are detailed and extensive and cover every aspect of service delivery. There is no change in either supply or demand for medicines, devices and other consumables. Any disruption will be linked to transport through Channel ports, but there are very extensive additional supplies being housed in the UK. In March the government had organised additional, dedicated and prioritised NHS non-Channel freight capacity equal to the total current NHS freight capacity; this also included small volumes of refrigerated air capacity for critical time-limited products. All our manufacturers confirmed their contingencies were robust.
I have absolutely no qualms about being treated myself or my family, in the period after a no deal Exit. My wife is a GP and similarly has no concerns. She was a Remain voter, I was a leave voter. We see mostly project fear reporting over NHS that bears little relation to the real situation on the ground.
Our workforce risk is considerably exaggerated too - although the proportion of non-Irish EU staff is higher the further south and east you go. Overall however, about 4% of NHS staff are EU citizens - the vast majority of whom are in settled and highly qualified roles. The greater risk is probably in lower-paid social care staff. But they mostly returned after Christmas, which was the concern.
The NHS is very adept at managing supply issues - we do it day in, day out.
The 80 medicines shortages referred to in the BBC article were all non-Brexit issues and a fairly typical number we manage at any one time. Most are related to changes in manufacturing capacity in the Far East.
I’m not foolish enough to say there will be no disruption - but the NHS is well prepared, knows where the risk areas are, and any problems are more likely to be a result of over-reaction to unfounded concerns and local stockpiling, than any real Brexit issues.
He can thus still win a general election even if he loses the votes of some who supported his Mayoral bid in 2008 and 2012 to Labour or the LDs
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1127455878528012289
In UK in 2017: 755k births, 607k deaths. Plus net migration adding 200k pa plus to that positive figure UK have lots to be positive about and could whinge a bit less.
Outside the wine areas and the tourist destinations, the countryside is adrift.
It will surprise no one to learn that those are closely correlated with Leave heartlands.
Remember almost 80 Tory MPs yet to declare and The Saj had a very good launch introduced by Ruth Davidson, probably the best received so far while Raab is positioning himself as the true hard Brexit candidate to the ERG
Even Ken Clarke backed it FFS.
Britain is now into chaotic hard Brexit territory.
That is how he won. Boris motivated them in a way Steven Norris could not, people were bored with Ken and then in 2012 he offered the over 60s travel pass which is still in place today to get their votes! Many city bankers, judges and other wealthy Londoners still in work over 60 still enjoy this freebie today.
Its hard to imagine now but back in 2008 or 2012 the Tories winning a London wide election was not that shocking!