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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peter the Punter on who the Republicans might choose to stop this happening – Hillary back in the Oval Office
The procedure was blissfully easy. You simply layed whoever was the latest clown to inspire the GOP base, safe in the knowledge that when push came to shove common -sense would prevail and the Party would revert to the sensible choice. I don’t think I even bothered to back Mitt Romney, even though it was pretty obvious all along that he was the most likely winner.
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Peter: the crisis did not come out of the blue in 2008. There were plenty of warnings, some public, some private. Believe me, I know. The FSA bears a considerable part of the blame with regard to RBS/ABN AMRO but the Treasury were very closely monitoring the health of B&B, Lloyds, RBS and others for months before the Lehmans bankruptcy and should have taken action much much earlier than they did. The Irish banks were also in deep doo-doo by this time and given UK banks' exposure to them that too was a warning signal. They didn't, which is why - as far as the UK was concerned - the crisis was very much worse than it should and could have been.
The G20 conference was far later - by all means give credit to Brown for whatever he did there but it's a bit like giving the ship's captain credit for organising a rescue after he's steered the ship onto the rocks.
Is this the new "Santorum" or a variation on that theme?
To me the only way back into the White House for GOP is to dump the TP, take the pain for a few years and remodel the party towards the centre while the TP destroy their image and the crazies are outed in public as really insane with terrible ideas.
With the TP within the GOP they are on the wrong side of too many debates and repel too many voter groups including minorities, single women, college graduates, career driven women and classic liberals. The appeal of the GOP with the TP in hand is very narrow, among family oriented women and white men. That is not enough to win an election.
Honestly, the GOP are doomed to fail until they cut the turds loose and let the TP thrash about trying to form a third party for a few cycles.
Of the names Peter mentions, several should be able to give the Dems at least a run for their money.
Rubio Bet 5.4/1 Lay 5.6/1
Jeb Bush 6.8/1 8/1
Christie 5.6/1 6/1
Rand Paul 9.5/1 17/1
Ted Cruz 12/1 16/1
Paul Ryan 16.5/1 -
Rob Portman 22/1 49/1
Bobby Jindall 45/1 -
Scott Walker 21/1 -
Mike Huckabee 18/1 -
Susana Martinez 41/1 -
Rick Perry 24/1 -
Eric Cantor 41/1 -
Mikki Haley 69.1 -
Others at longer odds
Unless the Republicans select a complete loon, they'll win 45%+ in any Presidential election. Their hold on the House and most State legislatures now seems solid as well.
I just don;t see them winning whoever they put up. Not now, or ever.
The maths are going inexorably against the republicans every day. Rich elderly middle class whites are (gradually) expiring and the immigrant communities that tend to vote democrat are expanding.
It just ain't gonna happen.
Jeb Bush is the logical choice, but the TPers won't have him and will go for Rubio. Great for my betting account, but not so much for the GOP. He won't be able to carry minority groups and non-Cuban Hispanics won't respond to him as an exile from a nation they believe to be friendly to their home country.
"The election of de Blasio is a warning to Right-of-centre parties to adapt to these changes and to accept that the rhetorical tool-kit of the Eighties has had its day. The alternative is to look like pie-eyed ideologues, remote from a turbulent reality. For progressive politicians around the world, none more so than Miliband, the new mayor’s triumph signals something remarkable. To adapt the song: if the Left can make it there, it can make it anywhere."
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/matthew-dancona-socialism-is-no-longer-a-bogey-word-in-new-york-8924150.html
Have replied on previous thread.
This one is more interesting!
LOL, Carlotta!
I'll leave you to guess what I was really trying to say....
I think the repubs may well disappear, because I don't see the tea party ever countenancing the changes in policy that would be necessary to fight the dems on their own ground.
If the repubs stay right to keep the tea party on board they lose. If they move left to fight the dems they rip the party down the middle and lose. Either way they lose.
If right wing Americans haven't worked this out now, they soon will.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10430430/Unite-row-David-Cameron-likens-Ed-Miliband-to-a-Sicilian-mayor-intimidated-by-the-mafia.html
Him and Ed will rejuvenate the Anglosphere together.
Seriously - I'd say Rand Paul can go deep - and will trade at odds shorter than available 10/1 on betfair.
Doubt he can win though.
De Blasio will get his wish. New York will cease to be a tale of two cities soon enough because the wealthy will have moved to avoid his new taxes.
My name is JackW and I approve this message.
Christie is on the left of the Republican party, but is broadly centrist if you take the USA a a whole, and would definitely be on the right here
Whereas Hilary Clinton is a 'left liberal' by USA standards as a whole, is a centrist candidate as regards to the Democrat party and would probably be viewed as a centrist here...
There is alot of difference between them for sure
Owen Jones@OwenJones8455m
I sorta hoped blocking Dan Hodges was for his own good, but nope, he’s off writing about me again. Restraining order time?!
Lets see where this goes - but I suspect d'Ancona's point about the cold war rhetoric having passed its expiry date is correct. I also think we may be seeing a change in perceptions about state control of utilities - as we saw in the YouGov poll.....
Which do you prefer? These figures or those figures? The useless or the clueless? The useless clueless or the useless gutless? The one who doesn’t know anything or the one who’s got everything wrong. The one that goes round personally sacking nurses or the one who’s a corrupt mafia-backed mayor?
Or you might prefer the Speaker himself, he called them all, as a whole, “low-grade” and “downmarket”. John Bercow is the Ambassador for Parliament, so that’s quite an assessment from the Chief Outreach Officer."
Sorry - but it's probably the best sketch out there:
http://order-order.com/2013/11/06/sketch-angry-reserves-sliding-strikers-and-a-biased-ref/
True, but from what I've read it sounds like the NY mayor has a bit more power to raise taxes etc...????
A new york where wealthy bankers and hedgies are vilified and taxed.
godsend for the City. Godsend.
After last nite's results, it's not inconceivable that Christie could lead from start to line.
Laying the loony on the other hand.....
I merely expressed surprise at this confession. The last tweet I ever sent him, (I may print it out and put it in a silver frame on my desk), was “ … I have genuinely never heard you self define as middle class till today”.
And I hadn’t. Class is a big deal to Owen. He’s written a bestselling book about it. He set up a think tank to study it. Asked to review Downton Abbey for the Independent, he observed, “The most fascinating scenes reveal the quiet violence of the class system”. Which seems a bit harsh on Lord Grantham." LOL http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100244675/its-time-to-reclaim-the-middle-class-say-it-once-but-not-too-loud-im-suburban-and-im-proud/
The loony wing of the GOP may try and brand him that most dreadful of things - a moderate, but unlike Giuliani or Mitt Romney (who lest we forget won) it won't be easy to brand him as such. He's got a relatively good story to tell about Paul, Cruz etc being great at expounding hot air about conservative touchstone issues but him being the guy who can actually get something done about them.
As for Sandy, will it really be that much of a sore point in January 2016? Plus given his demeanor I'd like to see someone in the debates tell him he did the wrong thing in accepting Obama's help at a time of crisis, it would be a gift.
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2013/09/23/130923ta_talk_surowiecki
Would you see that as a fair criticism to land at his door Sean? Surely it's just good old fashioned split ticket voting, in the bluest of blue states. Christie's win was stunning - the GOP would be completely bonkers to overlook him (I'll let you do the gags!)
Would you see that as a fair criticism to land at his door Sean? Surely it's just good old fashioned split ticket voting, in the bluest of blue states. Christie's win was stunning - the GOP would be completely bonkers to overlook him (I'll let you do the gags!)
As he says, the question is whether the GOP base will hold its nose a third time. They do usually. I think that every candidate since Goldwater got mullered in 1964 has been the pre-race favourite, and probably the establishment pick too. But the Tea Party does change things and if that organisation / mood on the anti-Washington right holds, it may be different this time. Whether it does hold depends on the Republicans in Congress. Gingrich went a long way to blowing the GOP's chances in 1996 and Boehner's Boys may do so again this time if they're remain as obstreperous as now.
Ref Christie, Governor Mitt was way to the left of Candidate Mitt so it's not necessarily a bar to Christie, though Romney had at least been out of office for some time when running in 2011/12. It'll be harder for Christie to distance himself from current policies.
Again, to agree with Peter, I suspect that the lay-the-loonie game has another couple of years to run before we're really into the swing of it and it's not guaranteed to happen at all. At this stage in the last cycle, the loonie to lay was Sarah Palin but it'd have been two years or so to collect with odds in mid-single figures, so not all that attractive a bet when combined with the risk that she might make it. For all the assumption that it would be Mitt - and I was always strongly inclined to that opinion - any candidate is only one really bad error from being knocked out and had Mitt fallen, a loonie it would have been.
Virginia gives an opposite example of split-ticket voting. McAuliffe won, but the Republicans still won big in the State legislature.
Not sure Christie has a serious health problem - aweight problem,yes, but don't we all - but even if he drops unexpectedly off the perch, there's nothing troubling about the idea of President Martinez.
I had the piece proof-read, and my helper used Word 'track-changes'. In transit from me to Mike, the originals and amendments seem to have got jumbled up. The sense is generally clear, but it is annoying.
Tea Repubs were widely seen as the culprits in the US debt ceiling stand off, and yet moderate repubs who helped prevent the US defaulting on its debt were completely vilified and potentially face re-selection battles. For doing the popular thing. For rescuing the Repubs from being the party that caused the default.
The tea party believes what it believes, no matter how many election defeats it goes down to, or how it does in the polls. It clearly isn;t interested in getting elected.
The alleged murderer invited to Downing St:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487664/David-Cameron-poses-Eid-photo-Downing-Street-Tory-councillor-Abdul-Aziz.html
Cameron on inequality being lowest since the mid-80s:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/11/06/cameron-on-inequality/
"..incomes will be more equal under this government than they were under Labour 1997-2010, but also than under late Thatcher and John Major."
*******************************************************************************
"Dems and swings like Christie and so do coastal and New England Republicans, but he will really struggle to get conservatives to vote for him and they are the ones who decide the primary election. Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds. The thing that could away them is the hopes of beating Hillary, but that's why they chose Romney last time (national viability in the general election) and they are feeling embittered by that and there is a feeling among some conservatives is that the answer to their national elections problem is to nominate a "true conservative" next time- that might work for them but only if he is Latino and isn't obviously insane. Not easy to find among their ranks.
"Dems winning in Boston, NY, and Detroit don't really have any predictive value, but the down ticket races in VA are interesting for sure.
"It is interesting to hear from you about how folks are betting on this stuff. What a trip!
What a contrast with Falkirk...
What may be madness at a National level is entirely sensible and rational at a local level. This is what explains rise to national prominence of somebody like Ted Cruz. In reality, he has no more chance of becoming POTUS than you or I.
Thanks David.
I agree the 'lay-the-loony' strategy has its risks, but you and I have the cojones, I'm sure.
Well, you have, anyway.
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2013/10/09/norquist-predicts-2016-gop-field-of-contenders-not-pretenders/article?nclick_check=1
[Grover Norquist] said only three of the Republicans seeking the nomination were really running for president: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry.
“In 2012, we had ten people up on stage. Three of them were running for president, the others were looking to sell books or be radio talk-show hosts or marriage counseling or something, but they weren’t running for president,” he said.
...
In 2016, he said, there could be six or seven candidates – nearly all governors – who could fund the campaign from start to finish and “pass the laugh test” on their candidacy.
Norquist named Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and Rand Paul of Kentucky. Later, he also mentioned Sam Brownback and Mike Pence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10428343/Joginder-Singh-Bhachu-obituary.html#disqus_thread
They went with an east coast governor at WH2012 and failed. I'm not convinced they'll do it again. At least Romney didn't have a weight problem.
Rand Paul inherits a power and extraordinarily strong ground organisation in many key states from his father and will do well in the early caucuses.
I'm on at 50/1 for the nomination as I tipped here a year ago.
True but its at national level where the power is. Any sensible politician knows he has to compromise his local politics to succeed nationally. And local voters probably know it too, -which is why they accept a pale imitation of what they voted for when their man gets in.
But ted cruz ain't like that, and neither are other tea party politicians. Or their voters. They would rather see the US default on its debt than compromise their principles in any way FFS. In fact, they'd quite like it.
Tea had a lousy night on Tuesday, but do think they are meeting in huddles discussing how they can change their message to appeal to a wider section of voters? Nope, its the voters who are wrong!!
“He won by a mile,” both sides say.
Which do you prefer? These figures or those figures? The useless or the clueless? The useless clueless or the useless gutless? The one who doesn’t know anything or the one who’s got everything wrong. The one that goes round personally sacking nurses or the one who’s a corrupt mafia-backed mayor?
Or you might prefer the Speaker himself, he called them all, as a whole, “low-grade” and “downmarket”. John Bercow is the Ambassador for Parliament, so that’s quite an assessment from the Chief Outreach Officer.
He put in another cracking anti-Tory performance – and so soon after the one two weeks ago which had the 1922 executive on the point of sending a delegation to him to complain. The delegation idea didn’t work so they were going to send a letter. In the end, they did nothing. The inactivity is something less than masterly.
Emboldened, the Speaker interrupted the Prime Minister again today, as he was winding up for one of his shoutable lines (the PM’s mike gets turned off when the Speaker rises). And Bercow also told him off in a tone of jocular contempt for not answering a question.
The deputy chief whip then tweeted: “PMQs getting like Old Trafford, 5 minutes extra time in the hope that the Reds score a late equaliser.” > more http://order-order.com/2013/11/06/sketch-angry-reserves-sliding-strikers-and-a-biased-ref/#more-153938
50/1 sounds about right to me. It's not inconceivable but it'd take a highly unusual set of circumstances to break through that ceiling.
The point about the early states is an important one. Unless a candidate can score one win or at least two strong seconds in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, they're going to be under immense pressure just to stay in the race..
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/11/chris-christie-on-2016-speculation-it-doesnt-mean-anything-to-me/
In it, it mentions that Christie is more than half way towards his weight loss target since having surgery earlier this year.
'Cameron has launched an immediate investigation.
What a contrast with Falkirk..'
What do you expect from McCluskey's puppet?
Every runner has its price though and at 50s I'd be a backer,not a layer.
20 years in the gulag should disencourage others.
nuts
Looks like the MP for Ilford South is about to get some unwelcome attention from Eurosceptics who want to make sure his constituents are fully appraised of his desperate and extensive attempts to deny them a referendum on EU membership.
http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=cd87abaa476ddb40d85de000d&id=a09447fa8c&e=7d8a0eadce
He is of course perfectly entitled to do what he is doing but at the same time the Eurosceptics are perfectly entitled to try and make his life as uncomfortable as possible in return.
Plus the fact that on a wider canvas it plays into the meme that Labour as a party want to deny people a choice. At least that is the way it is going to be pushed by Eurosceptics.
At last the tories are catching on to exploiting the desperate failures in public services in Labour's back yard.
Presumably you haven't been to Mumbai. I was in the lounge used for BA Business Class, and there was nowhere to sit (no food or drink either). I asked if I could go outside (and maybe come back later), as there was at least some seating in the main area. The staff were somewhat taken aback that a business class passenger would want rather sit with the plebs than stand in a cess pit.
It made Nairobi airport look clean, organised and efficient.
Ed's decision to abandon all pretence of economic realism for desperate populism is another sign of Osborne's continuing success.
"Tristram Hunt @TristramHuntMP 6h
Great privilege to be reselected as the Labour Party candidate for Stoke-on-Trent Central for 2015 General Election #prideinthePotteries"
twitter.com/TristramHuntMP/status/398054531109371904