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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a se

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited November 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 3rd consecutive YouGov poll LAB’s in the 40s, a sequence that was last bettered in April

Update: Labour lead at 6 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 5th November – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26 http://t.co/yQ959vX9kf

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Comments

  • First!
  • @Tim
    Leader ratings, did you say?
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dnzcpjwqq1/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-041113.pdf

    -28, for the LOTO, in late midterm.
    YouGov, blah-blah Mori gold-standard blah-blah Yes I know.
    Yes it is YouGov, but it is nonetheless measuring something.
    And Ed Milliband is unpopular.
  • Much as "in the forties" would appear to have totemic significance for OGH Labour's vote has been within MOE of 40 since the last week of September....and still 3 points below where they were on average a year ago....Nov 6/7 2012 Labour were on 45 and +11
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Much as "in the forties" would appear to have totemic significance for OGH Labour's vote has been within MOE of 40 since the last week of September....and still 3 points below where they were on average a year ago....Nov 6/7 2012 Labour were on 45 and +11

    In his threads, at least, if not his betting, I fear OGH is being lead by his heart, not his head.

    The position remains exactly the same as it was about 24 hours after the 2010 election.

    Both Cameron and Miliband are a bit meh.

    There's not much switching between Labour and the Tories.

    The Tories need to win UKIP and NOTA voters.

    Labour needs to hold Scotland and the LD2010s.

    Miliband's lead isn't great for a single opposition party during a difficult environment, but appears enough and is holding together for now. Together with the LibDems willingness to backslide and lie in their own narrow factional interest this looks like enough. If it holds - personally I think it's going to be flaky when the crunch comes, but that may be my heart speaking
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Charles said:

    Much as "in the forties" would appear to have totemic significance for OGH Labour's vote has been within MOE of 40 since the last week of September....and still 3 points below where they were on average a year ago....Nov 6/7 2012 Labour were on 45 and +11

    In his threads, at least, if not his betting, I fear OGH is being lead by his heart, not his head.

    The position remains exactly the same as it was about 24 hours after the 2010 election.

    Both Cameron and Miliband are a bit meh.

    There's not much switching between Labour and the Tories.

    The Tories need to win UKIP and NOTA voters.

    Labour needs to hold Scotland and the LD2010s.

    Miliband's lead isn't great for a single opposition party during a difficult environment, but appears enough and is holding together for now. Together with the LibDems willingness to backslide and lie in their own narrow factional interest this looks like enough. If it holds - personally I think it's going to be flaky when the crunch comes, but that may be my heart speaking
    Good post and pretty much mirrors my feelings.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OGH: thread suggestion

    How about a simple chart showing Labour's lead over the Tories over the last 18 months? Yougov if you must, but only because they have the most data points.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    LD's on 8 a bit worrying. Being sub 10 now seems fairly consistent, and probably more significant than whether Labour are on 40% or 39%.

    Worrying news from Colchester Hospital.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    It's not only that Labour are in the (very early) 40's; it's that the Tories are stubbornly in the mid to low 30's as well.
  • tim said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    @Tim
    Leader ratings, did you say?
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dnzcpjwqq1/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-041113.pdf

    -28, for the LOTO, in late midterm.
    YouGov, blah-blah Mori gold-standard blah-blah Yes I know.
    Yes it is YouGov, but it is nonetheless measuring something.
    And Ed Milliband is unpopular.

    "There Are None So Blind
    As Those Who Will Not See"
    You thought he'd be popular didn't you Tim, and lost money, to me, because you got that wrong, didn't you?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It's not only that Labour are in the (very early) 40's; it's that the Tories are stubbornly in the mid to low 30's as well.

    The interesting point is that you can get the Labour's score with Lab + LD10.

    The Tories hardly seem to have lost any support (based off 34% vs ?36% in 2010). How do you square that with the UKIP rise? Presumably UKIP winning a lot from NOTA - which arguably means that both Tories and Labour are actually doing better if you assume that a lot of NOTA will end up doing a Paxman.
  • LD's on 8 a bit worrying. Being sub 10 now seems fairly consistent,

    And has been since December 2010.....they had a good run over July/August but sank back to pretty consistent single digits......
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It looks like they will lose half their seats. In England probably mostly to the Conservatives, but in Scotland?

    LD's on 8 a bit worrying. Being sub 10 now seems fairly consistent,

    And has been since December 2010.....they had a good run over July/August but sank back to pretty consistent single digits......
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    Charles said:

    It's not only that Labour are in the (very early) 40's; it's that the Tories are stubbornly in the mid to low 30's as well.

    The interesting point is that you can get the Labour's score with Lab + LD10.

    The Tories hardly seem to have lost any support (based off 34% vs ?36% in 2010). How do you square that with the UKIP rise? Presumably UKIP winning a lot from NOTA - which arguably means that both Tories and Labour are actually doing better if you assume that a lot of NOTA will end up doing a Paxman.
    Which suggests that, contrary to what someone posted here a few days ago, fixed term Parliaments have worked this time for the Tories. Had they gone to the country six months after the May 10 election, as Wilson did in 1974, we'd have ended up with a rerun with the Labourish LD's switching to Labour.
    And given the way the Toies behaved in Saddleworth, I don't think there'd have been many of them tactically voting LD.
    Of course, it's unlikely that a minority Tory Government would have increased VAT!
  • @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

  • tim said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    tim said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    @Tim
    Leader ratings, did you say?
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dnzcpjwqq1/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-041113.pdf

    -28, for the LOTO, in late midterm.
    YouGov, blah-blah Mori gold-standard blah-blah Yes I know.
    Yes it is YouGov, but it is nonetheless measuring something.
    And Ed Milliband is unpopular.

    "There Are None So Blind
    As Those Who Will Not See"
    You thought he'd be popular didn't you Tim, and lost money, to me, because you got that wrong, didn't you?

    It's relative popularity that counts.

    Sept 2013 Dave+13
    Oct 2013 Ed+1

    That movement is now feeding through into a solidity in Labours share.

    Only a fool would deny that.

    And remember.

    The Tory brand is dog shite, Cameron needs a big lead over Ed to counter that and keep his job, it's not happening.

    Possibly Tim.
    Also
    - Ed is unpopular with his own side in midterm
    - I won
    - You lost


  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

    I feel for you Mike. I think you do a great job keeping the site going and providing thread headers. I do feel you could raise your blood sugar a little this morning though :-)
  • Labour would really like to be in the 70s, never mind the 40s.
  • Lab + Con's combined share of the vote currently totals 74%. Am I correct in thinking that it's been a very long time since we last saw quite this concentration of support between the two major parties?
    Even allowing for the undeniably strong imcumbency support within the LibDem strongholds, it's beginning to look very worrying indeed for them and given the strong dislike for them within the ranks of Labour and Tory voters, for very different reasons, it's very difficult to see from where they can gain any further significant support this side of a General Election. In fact they may well find themselves losing further ground as voters' minds are concentrated on the stark choice ahead.
    I'm starting to wonder whether those 4/1 odds from Ladbrokes against them winning between 21-30 seats, thereby losing around half their representation, might have some merit after all.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Hmmm

    things are looking a bit heated on PB this morning, maybe I should get Nadim to turn his thermostat down
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @tim complaining about other PBers spamming ....

    The site irony meter will self destruct in five seconds ....
  • Labour's vote share is definitely up on where it was before conference season, which is a bit of a surprise given the unmitigated disaster which unfolded in Brighton according to many on here.

    More significant than that, though, is the 35%+ vote share Labour has had in almost every poll from almost every pollster since around June 2010. That does not indicate flakiness to me. Throw in sitting LD MPs keeping out Tory challengers and the Tories have a hell of a task to win an election they should really expect to saunter.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

    You do a great job of turning out threads 3 times a day: far better than I could do.

    The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories. There are certainly a lot of headwinds that work against them, but there are some more positive angles to consider as well. It's these aspects that seem to get overlooked (eg narrowing Labour lead on a 12 month view). If nothing else it leads to repetative threads with parties on both sides of the fence saying the same thing over and over again.

    In a strange way suggesting you are led by your heart is a compliment - because I think you are too smart about politics to have missed these signs.

    As an aside, the most interesting thread in recent times was Ddavid Herdson's last weekend. More of those type of "thought pieces" vs just polling threads - acknowledging they are a lot more work - would be great :)
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all. Some people seem very tetchy this morning. The only really interesting thing about the polls is that there is nothing particularly interesting about them!

    Is it tomorrow when there is a bumper batch of council by-elections? I seem to remember Henry's preview pointing to one week this month with around 10 occurring.

    The BAE news will not be good for the families concerned. However to be blunt if they are willing to travel, most of the men who will lose their jobs probably have the sort of technical skills which will see them get better paid jobs in the North Sea oil and gas sector.

    What we desperately need is an explanation as to why most major public sector contracts, under any government seem to be incapable of being delivered on budget.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Hmmm

    things are looking a bit heated on PB this morning, maybe I should get Nadim to turn his thermostat down


    I think he has a man to do that for him.
    Jack Dromey by the sound of it, he's number 2 ( appropriately ) on the Midlands MPs heating bonanza scoring £1500. His flat in Erdington must have an ambient temperature of 50 degrees or else he has a Dominos Pizza franchise on the side.

    I wonder if it has occurred to MPs that they could make as big a contribution to carbon reduction if we just stopped them claiming. for power ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Blue_rog said:

    @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

    I feel for you Mike. I think you do a great job keeping the site going and providing thread headers. I do feel you could raise your blood sugar a little this morning though :-)
    Quite so.

    Let's hear it for the old Bedford charmer. He's providing over 1,000 threads a year and if that's not a top notch multi coloured LibDem wooly jumper then I'm a winning here "Focus" leaflet !!

    Huzzah for Mike Smithson !!!!!!!!!!!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    I agree with Mike that very little is happening at the moment. So far the economic recovery has been a largely voteless one for the tories. 11 months of consistently good news has brought their share of the vote up maybe 2-3%.

    More significantly, given the lack of direct switchers it has had a very modest effect on Labour of approximatley the same size.

    It is possible that this holding pattern will remain in place for the next 18 months and Ed will cruise to victory. This would be atypical but with the coalition we are in an atypical situation.

    At some point in the not too distant future the tories need to break the mold. I think a serious effort to do that will be made next month with what still seems to be called the Autumn statment for some reason. What we will see there is a burst of good news and some goodies for the public. If that does not at least start to break into the Labour vote the tories are in trouble.

    Personally, I think that at least some recovery by the Lib Dems is a necessary element of that. This is like the 80s in reverse. The lefty vote is disproportionately concentrated in the Labour camp. At the same time the righty vote has been split by the rise of UKIP. I am more confident of that proving ephemeral than I am of a Lib Dem recovery.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Is the LD incumbency factor really strong enough to overcome a loss of 2/3 of vote share?

    I think not, and I am a supporter.

    I think that a lot of the 2010 LDs who have now gone to Labour are voters who were shifted in 2005 by the anti war vote, and hard to see the LDs getting those back.

    Will incumbency and tactical voting help? At the margin possibly, but not enough. 21-30 seats a definite possibility.

    Labour's vote share is definitely up on where it was before conference season, which is a bit of a surprise given the unmitigated disaster which unfolded in Brighton according to many on here.

    More significant than that, though, is the 35%+ vote share Labour has had in almost every poll from almost every pollster since around June 2010. That does not indicate flakiness to me. Throw in sitting LD MPs keeping out Tory challengers and the Tories have a hell of a task to win an election they should really expect to saunter.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    Bad when one of their pet comics is starting to ridicule them, only needs the Daily Ranger to follow
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Charles said:

    @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

    You do a great job of turning out threads 3 times a day: far better than I could do.

    The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories. There are certainly a lot of headwinds that work against them, but there are some more positive angles to consider as well. It's these aspects that seem to get overlooked (eg narrowing Labour lead on a 12 month view). If nothing else it leads to repetative threads with parties on both sides of the fence saying the same thing over and over again.

    In a strange way suggesting you are led by your heart is a compliment - because I think you are too smart about politics to have missed these signs.

    As an aside, the most interesting thread in recent times was Ddavid Herdson's last weekend. More of those type of "thought pieces" vs just polling threads - acknowledging they are a lot more work - would be great :)


    "The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories"

    why's that a problem ? Maybe it just reflects that the blues still have to get their act together. Cameron is struggling as he still hasn't been able to broaden his appeal beyond the South.
  • Tim The Chair is running in the 3-25 at Warwick, currently 16/1

    I think he will come flying out of the stalls all guns blazing, then when the opposition catch him he will go completely off course
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning Jack, what did the ARSE predict at 9am yesterday? Sorry but I had to be elsewhere and my mobile phone doesn't do the internet but then again it rarely receives a signal. The joys of rural life.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

    You do a great job of turning out threads 3 times a day: far better than I could do.

    The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories. There are certainly a lot of headwinds that work against them, but there are some more positive angles to consider as well. It's these aspects that seem to get overlooked (eg narrowing Labour lead on a 12 month view). If nothing else it leads to repetative threads with parties on both sides of the fence saying the same thing over and over again.

    In a strange way suggesting you are led by your heart is a compliment - because I think you are too smart about politics to have missed these signs.

    As an aside, the most interesting thread in recent times was Ddavid Herdson's last weekend. More of those type of "thought pieces" vs just polling threads - acknowledging they are a lot more work - would be great :)

    Why don't you write one on how the fundamentals favour the Tories, I'll write the opposite view.
    tim there are only so many times we want to read the words "porpoise" or "corset". Still it could be interesting to have a thread starting with the words "MODERATED" ;-)
  • malcolmg said:

    Bad when one of their pet comics is starting to ridicule them, only needs the Daily Ranger to follow
    They already have:

    "Record View: Ed Miliband must come clean over inquiry into Falkirk vote fiasco

    RECORD VIEW says ex-chancellor Alistair Darling is right to demand new and fully transparent probe into power struggle."

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/record-view-ed-miliband-must-2677645

    But London Labour knows whats best for Scotland, so run along now and dinna bother yer wee heids....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2013
    DM - "Red Ed accused of willfully 'averting' his gaze as he refuses seven times to say he'll reopen vote-rigging probe"

    The Falkirk scandal continues to dog Ed Miliband.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2488106/Red-Ed-accused-willfully-averting-gaze-refuses-seven-times-say-hell-reopen-vote-rigging-probe.html
  • "Jack Dromey by the sound of it, he's number 2 ( appropriately ) on the Midlands MPs heating bonanza scoring £1500. His flat in Erdington must have an ambient temperature of 50 degrees "

    If my heating bills for a Brummie flat were £1500p.a. I'd have my meter checked out. I'd also visit Specsavers before taking the readings.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Is the LD incumbency factor really strong enough to overcome a loss of 2/3 of vote share?

    I think not, and I am a supporter.

    I think that a lot of the 2010 LDs who have now gone to Labour are voters who were shifted in 2005 by the anti war vote, and hard to see the LDs getting those back.

    Will incumbency and tactical voting help? At the margin possibly, but not enough. 21-30 seats a definite possibility.


    Labour's vote share is definitely up on where it was before conference season, which is a bit of a surprise given the unmitigated disaster which unfolded in Brighton according to many on here.

    More significant than that, though, is the 35%+ vote share Labour has had in almost every poll from almost every pollster since around June 2010. That does not indicate flakiness to me. Throw in sitting LD MPs keeping out Tory challengers and the Tories have a hell of a task to win an election they should really expect to saunter.

    You're working basis of 8% for the yellow peril at the 2015 will be false. We are talking YouGroan here !!

    IMO the LibDems are probably going to hit the 14-18% range with a seat range of 35-50. Look at the historic seat range and % share since 1974 and they simply don't relate.

    Effectively the LibDem hotspots have trebled over the past 40 years and that will insulate them from losses that vote share loss might predict through UNS which simply isn't relevant to them.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Maybe we will see reality dawn on the Con majority price soon?
  • Is the LD incumbency factor really strong enough to overcome a loss of 2/3 of vote share?

    I think not, and I am a supporter.

    I think that a lot of the 2010 LDs who have now gone to Labour are voters who were shifted in 2005 by the anti war vote, and hard to see the LDs getting those back.

    Will incumbency and tactical voting help? At the margin possibly, but not enough. 21-30 seats a definite possibility.


    Labour's vote share is definitely up on where it was before conference season, which is a bit of a surprise given the unmitigated disaster which unfolded in Brighton according to many on here.

    More significant than that, though, is the 35%+ vote share Labour has had in almost every poll from almost every pollster since around June 2010. That does not indicate flakiness to me. Throw in sitting LD MPs keeping out Tory challengers and the Tories have a hell of a task to win an election they should really expect to saunter.

    It's the anti-Tory factor. So many votes in GEs are negative. I may be wrong, but I imagine that the desire to keep the Tories out will trump everything else for many leftish voters in LD/Con marginal in 2015.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited November 2013
    What we desperately need is a by-election in a CON held seat. So far this parliament only one of the Westminster by-elections has been in such a seat - Corby. I'd like to see one in a seat which would really test UKIP which has never achieved a share of more than 28% in any constituency.

    The Tories last held onto a seat in a by-election while in power in the 1980s when William Hague came into parliament at Richmond, Yorkshire.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited November 2013
    With the YouGov polls the Tories seem to have lost their overall lead with the middle class (again?)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Morning Jack, what did the ARSE predict at 9am yesterday? Sorry but I had to be elsewhere and my mobile phone doesn't do the internet but then again it rarely receives a signal. The joys of rural life.

    Traversing the glens has its downside.

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection - (Change From Last Projection)

    Con 298 (0) .. Lab 280 (+4) .. LibDem 38 (0) .. SNP 10 (-2) .. PC 2 (0) .. NI 18 (0) .. Ukip 1 (-1) .. Respect 1 (0) .. Green 1 (0) .. Ind 0 (-1) .. Speaker 1 (0)

  • Ian Davidson MP calling for a clause in the Frigate orders such that if Scotland votes for Independence, the contracts are cancelled and moved to rUK.......

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/glasgow-mp-suggests-break-clause-in-warship-contract-141533n.22602982

    Interesting to see how that plays out.....
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Thanks Jack, so very nip and tuck as we would say.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    From YouGov, it is noticeable that Labour have been for some time very strong in the North with a 55% or more VI. Are they racking up votes in safe seats?

    In Scotland there is much more of a battle with the SNP and much more on a par with the Cons in the Midlands. London usually favours Labour but VI has been very variable.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    What we desperately need is a by-election in a CON held seat. So far this parliament only one of the Westminster by-elections has been in such a seat - Corby. I'd like to see one in a seat which would really test UKIP which has never achieved a share of more than 28% in any constituency.

    The Tories last held onto a seat in a by-election while in power in the 1980s when William Hague came into parliament at Richmond, Yorkshire.

    How can you say that ? What with 10 more action packed months of the Indyref still to go has there ever been a better time to comment on politics ?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Apple announced this Monday that it will be building a manufacturing plant right here in the United States that will create more than 2,000 jobs. And that's not all. Its US manufacturing facility will also be running on 100 percent renewable energy! I'm not an Apple fan or hater, but when it comes to creating job opportunities in the US, producing something right here in the country I live in, and also using renewable energy, it's three wins in my opinion and I'm all for it. I think this is a great move by Apple and I hope the company brings more jobs back home.

    www.newsletters@cnet.online.com
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    In other news, tears and blockings before bedtime as Owen Jones blocks Dan Hodges for outing him as middle class - as one observer tweets: "My middle class status is irrelevant" says person who makes a living claiming to represent the views of the working classes. Right."
  • For Ed, life begins in the forties. The election is now his to lose. Keep outperforming a tired looking Cameron and 18 more months is all we will have to endure of this wretched Government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    For Ed, life begins in the forties. The election is now his to lose. Keep outperforming a tired looking Cameron and 18 more months is all we will have to endure of this wretched Government.

    Yes all these new jobs and growth and deficit reduction - we can confidently say Labour will put a stop to such nonsense.

    Labour Nailed on appears to be the cry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    DavidL - Hope you got on him for the nomination at 8-1 as advised by PtP here
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    8-1 still available on Chris Christie at Hills...
  • Financier said:

    Apple announced this Monday that it will be building a manufacturing plant right here in the United States that will create more than 2,000 jobs. And that's not all. Its US manufacturing facility will also be running on 100 percent renewable energy! I'm not an Apple fan or hater, but when it comes to creating job opportunities in the US, producing something right here in the country I live in, and also using renewable energy, it's three wins in my opinion and I'm all for it. I think this is a great move by Apple and I hope the company brings more jobs back home.

    www.newsletters@cnet.online.com

    Productivity in the Chinese plants it uses is sub-optimal. Combined with continual unrest caused by the very bad conditions under which people work in them, the reputational issues this causes for Apple, IP leakage and the increasing costs of shipping, and the move makes perfect sense. A few other US companies are beginning to do the same.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT

    A Labour-run London council is aiming to become the first in the UK to ban fracking.

    Brent council’s leader has pledged to “do everything” within his power to outlaw the practice of extracting natural gas from the local authority area.

    The council is backing concerns raised by Friends of the Earth about the dangers of fracking despite a recent report by Public Health England which concluded the process did not pose any serious threats provided it is properly regulated.

    The announcement has echoes of the early 1980s when Brent was among a number of “Loony left” councils who supported the Greater London Council’s crusade to make the city into a “nuclear-free” zone.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/10419959/Loony-Left-Labour-council-aims-to-be-first-in-country-to-ban-fracking.html
  • Good morning, everyone.

    There's been an explosion outside a regional HQ of the Chinese Communist Party, killing one person: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24830724

    This comes shortly after that burning car that drove into crowds in Tiananmen[sp] Square. For two such events to be so close together looks like more than coincidence, but as far as I know nobody claimed responsibility for the first one.
  • DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    By the way - for anyone hopeful of a CON swingback just take a look at http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html - Even if CON support increases 2%, and Labour support drops back to the 2010 level (When they had Gordon Jimmy Brown in charge) it is still not a CON majority. CON minority is the best CON can hope for.
  • R4 Bernard Jenkin MP in lockstep with the Union on what went wrong at Colchester and what needs to be fixed.
  • In other news, tears and blockings before bedtime as Owen Jones blocks Dan Hodges for outing him as middle class - as one observer tweets: "My middle class status is irrelevant" says person who makes a living claiming to represent the views of the working classes. Right."

    You can call me names but just don't remind people I'm middle class.... this is the evil tweet that lead to the block.... talk about howid and mean.

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges51m
    "@OwenJones84 @tomcopley ...I have genuinely never heard you self define as middle-class till today".
  • DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

    Christie is no shoo-in.

    He represents New Jersey. For many GOP supporters, only New York could be worse. He is well to the Party's left, with fairly moderate positions on abortion and gun-control. He does not appeal at all to some of the the Party's highly vocal factions.

    Nevertheless he is a strong candidate, who would certainly have a chance of the White House, whoever the Democrats run.

    The 8/1 Hills are still offering looked generous yesterday, more so today.

  • Financier said:


    The announcement has echoes of the early 1980s when Brent was among a number of “Loony left” councils who supported the Greater London Council’s crusade to make the city into a “nuclear-free” zone.

    To be fair to Brent Council, they hadn't been hit by a nuclear weapon, so the policy was successful, certainly more so than some other policies that they implemented!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    meanwhile outside Westminster the country still needs some serious economic restructuring.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10427783/Britain-to-have-worst-2014-trade-deficit-in-industrial-world-on-EU-forecasts.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

    I think that the bigger issue is that a lot of republicans don't seem to give a lot of credit for such reach and very few blacks and a relatively small number of hispanics actually vote in the republican nomination process. He might find it easier to fight the democrats (presumably Hillary) than the nutters in his own party.

    He has some similarity to Romney in that he is a republican governor of a democratic state who has shown an ability to work across the Aisle, notably when he thanked Obama for his help on the hurricane. He just seems to have more substance and less baggage. Saying he is twice the man Romeny was is probably sizest though.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited November 2013

    In other news, tears and blockings before bedtime as Owen Jones blocks Dan Hodges for outing him as middle class - as one observer tweets: "My middle class status is irrelevant" says person who makes a living claiming to represent the views of the working classes. Right."

    LOL - Owen gives the impression that he mined for coal using his finger nails and ate the floorboards to survive the winter as a child. I find him most amusing. I know barely a soul he hasn't blocked. He blocked me for a very mild ?? tweet about a year ago.
  • DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

    Christie is no shoo-in.

    He represents New Jersey. For many GOP supporters, only New York could be worse. He is well to the Party's left, with fairly moderate positions on abortion and gun-control. He does not appeal at all to some of the the Party's highly vocal factions.

    Nevertheless he is a strong candidate, who would certainly have a chance of the White House, whoever the Democrats run.

    The 8/1 Hills are still offering looked generous yesterday, more so today.

    The nomination process will be very tricky for him; and if he does get through that he needs to get the Tea Party out on GE day without harming his chances among the sane. It will be one hell of a task. But right now he is clearly the best chance the GOP has for 2016

  • Charles said:

    @Charles
    I resent this head over heart attack on me. I am just the messenger trying to produce several pieces each day when sod all is happening.

    The fixed term parliament act has taken away so much of the potential for speculation this far out.

    You do a great job of turning out threads 3 times a day: far better than I could do.

    The problem is that most of your threads have a negative slant for the Tories. There are certainly a lot of headwinds that work against them, but there are some more positive angles to consider as well. It's these aspects that seem to get overlooked (eg narrowing Labour lead on a 12 month view). If nothing else it leads to repetative threads with parties on both sides of the fence saying the same thing over and over again.

    In a strange way suggesting you are led by your heart is a compliment - because I think you are too smart about politics to have missed these signs.

    As an aside, the most interesting thread in recent times was Ddavid Herdson's last weekend. More of those type of "thought pieces" vs just polling threads - acknowledging they are a lot more work - would be great :)
    David's piece was very good, Charles, but not as good as Part 1 of mine on the US Elections! ;-)

    Part 2 will be along soon. Don't worry. It doesn't say anything bad about the Tories at all.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Mike's doing a good job of monitoring the position. Complaints that this consistently shows Labour on track for winning should be addressed to the electorate, not the messenger. However, wary though I am of subsamples, it's fair to note that this is the first YG poll for ages to show the SNP level with Labour in Scotland at 31%, so fitalass and the Mail can be pleased. Conversely the Labour vote in England and Wales is up to 41-42.

    Lab + Con's combined share of the vote currently totals 74%. Am I correct in thinking that it's been a very long time since we last saw quite this concentration of support between the two major parties?
    Even allowing for the undeniably strong imcumbency support within the LibDem strongholds, it's beginning to look very worrying indeed for them and given the strong dislike for them within the ranks of Labour and Tory voters, for very different reasons, it's very difficult to see from where they can gain any further significant support this side of a General Election. In fact they may well find themselves losing further ground as voters' minds are concentrated on the stark choice ahead.
    I'm starting to wonder whether those 4/1 odds from Ladbrokes against them winning between 21-30 seats, thereby losing around half their representation, might have some merit after all.

    I've thought for a long time that the GE will be polarised, with only the possible UKIP 10% preventing it from being the biggest 2-party dominance since the 1950s. I'm not sure about that "strong dislike", though - the LD->Lab switchers that I meet don't especially dislike the LDs, they merely flatly disagree with the Coalition.

    I suppose I have good reason to dislike them as their local 17% based on false claims of impending victory probably cost me my seat, but I don't - they still seem to me broadly my sort of people in a way that the Conservatives don't, politically speaking. I'd guess that about half the previous tactical Labour->LD voters will still rally round where they're the incumbents. Not enough to save a lot of their seats but should prevent a massacre.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471

    Financier said:

    Apple announced this Monday that it will be building a manufacturing plant right here in the United States that will create more than 2,000 jobs. And that's not all. Its US manufacturing facility will also be running on 100 percent renewable energy! I'm not an Apple fan or hater, but when it comes to creating job opportunities in the US, producing something right here in the country I live in, and also using renewable energy, it's three wins in my opinion and I'm all for it. I think this is a great move by Apple and I hope the company brings more jobs back home.

    www.newsletters@cnet.online.com

    Productivity in the Chinese plants it uses is sub-optimal. Combined with continual unrest caused by the very bad conditions under which people work in them, the reputational issues this causes for Apple, IP leakage and the increasing costs of shipping, and the move makes perfect sense. A few other US companies are beginning to do the same.

    Some British companies are moving production from China as well, although only a little returns here to the UK. An example is the Raspberry Pi, now made at a Sony plant in South Wales.

    Another cost can be surprisingly significant. High-tech firms need people in the country - and even in the factories - to check process, quality control etcetera. Sadly, there are dangers to employing native Chinese staff for that role, and in one or two firms I've worked for, this is done by UK staff rotated over for months at a time. It is not a popular duty, and the pay can be significantly higher.

    So much so, one firm has shifted production to Korea. The situation is (slightly) better there.
  • I'm assuming Energy Q's won't be the theme again today BUT the latest stunt loosely related to the living wage will be given some much needed oxygen at PMQ's?

    Now there's excitement for you OGH....

    Next thread, what's the longest consecutive days the LDs have been in single figures?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    meanwhile outside Westminster the country still needs some serious economic restructuring.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10427783/Britain-to-have-worst-2014-trade-deficit-in-industrial-world-on-EU-forecasts.html

    I am very confident that those forecasts for the deficit will prove to be far too pessimistic. What we saw yesterday and have increasingly seen, is growth powered by construction and the build up of services including exports rather than the rise of consumption that the EU seem to be assuming. This column gives a better view: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100026007/service-industries-are-booming-again-is-policy-barking-up-the-wrong-tree-in-supporting-march-of-the-makers/

    None of this means that our balance of payment problems are over of course or that the government should not continue to give priority to addressing them. I just think that the EU figures on this are about as reliable as their growth forecasts for the UK were 6 months ago.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    I am keeping a record of the data of movement from 2010 election for each byweekly Populus poll.

    The data has been remarkably stable with no material variation month on month. The data with the greatest standard deviation has been libdem 2010 voters.

    The average percentage data is:

    Conservative 2010 voters:
    c65,l4,ld1,ukip12,g0,wnv3,?13

    labour 2010 voters:
    c3,l80,ld2,ukip2,g1,wnv3,?9

    libdem 2010 voters:
    C8,l24,ld32,ukip6,g3,wnv3,?22

    In addition to the key voting groups mentioned before is the high level of libdem2010 who currently don't know.
  • "Mike's doing a good job of monitoring the position. Complaints that this consistently shows Labour on track for winning should be addressed to the electorate, not the messenger. "

    If only the election was tomorrow in Labour-land... the blank piece of paper apart from 'populist stunts' would mean nailed on for sure.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,470
    edited November 2013

    DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

    Christie is no shoo-in.

    He represents New Jersey. For many GOP supporters, only New York could be worse. He is well to the Party's left, with fairly moderate positions on abortion and gun-control. He does not appeal at all to some of the the Party's highly vocal factions.

    Nevertheless he is a strong candidate, who would certainly have a chance of the White House, whoever the Democrats run.

    The 8/1 Hills are still offering looked generous yesterday, more so today.

    The nomination process will be very tricky for him; and if he does get through that he needs to get the Tea Party out on GE day without harming his chances among the sane. It will be one hell of a task. But right now he is clearly the best chance the GOP has for 2016

    My money's down, Southam, and if it weren't, I'd get it down pretty quickly.

    He must be front runner now, and anything above 5/1 would be pretty good value.

  • R4 Robinson says Portsmouth shipyard to close.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    But would voting LD keep the Tories from power, or put them in? Surely the precedent is the latter in the minds of most left leaning voters?

    And running an explicitly pro Labour campaign would put off the remaining 8%, as well as stretching credibility a bit far.

    I think Jacks ARSE current prediction would be a very interesting outcome, and one likely to collapse into a second election quickly, so plenty there for PB threads!

    Is the LD incumbency factor really strong enough to overcome a loss of 2/3 of vote share?

    I think not, and I am a supporter.

    I think that a lot of the 2010 LDs who have now gone to Labour are voters who were shifted in 2005 by the anti war vote, and hard to see the LDs getting those back.

    Will incumbency and tactical voting help? At the margin possibly, but not enough. 21-30 seats a definite possibility.


    Labour's vote share is definitely up on where it was before conference season, which is a bit of a surprise given the unmitigated disaster which unfolded in Brighton according to many on here.

    More significant than that, though, is the 35%+ vote share Labour has had in almost every poll from almost every pollster since around June 2010. That does not indicate flakiness to me. Throw in sitting LD MPs keeping out Tory challengers and the Tories have a hell of a task to win an election they should really expect to saunter.

    It's the anti-Tory factor. So many votes in GEs are negative. I may be wrong, but I imagine that the desire to keep the Tories out will trump everything else for many leftish voters in LD/Con marginal in 2015.

  • Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) has announced he will retire at next GE. Elected in 2008 by-election, he was born in 1949
  • However, wary though I am of subsamples, it's fair to note that this is the first YG poll for ages to show the SNP level with Labour in Scotland at 31%, so fitalass and the Mail can be pleased.

    London Labour eh?

    I think you mean "Scotsman, Daily Record and Daily Herald'....

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Much will depend on how pragmatic the GOP choose to be.

    McCain and Romney were clearly the best of a whacky job lot and so it may prove with Christie. He also has the advantage of putting a blue state back on the table as other states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio edge the other way.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Agree with DavidL that Christie's romp is significant - the next primary season may be the most boring ever if it turns out that Hillary/Christie are walkovers. Also worth noting that de Blasio won by an even bigger margin (49 points) than the polls suggested, despite the New York Post putting him on the cover with a huge hammer and sickle. Red smears are so last generation.

    Another crap night for the US polling institutes, in fact - they got all three rersults wrong quite significantly. Maybe they need the sort of "where are we going wrong?" rethink that we had in Britain after 1992.
  • I see Mr Roy from Glenrothes 2008 is stepping down in 2015.

    Nothing personal but as an example, let's assume he's got 7 years accrued service in the MP pension scheme at that time and base salary is say £60k. Then 1/40 accrual = 7/40 x £60k for life which is £10,500pa with 50% spouse, inflation-linked benefits.

    There may even be 3x this as a tax free lump sum straight from the taxpayer as there is with the NHS old scheme but not sure so let's say not. Also don't know the MP commutation factor for more tax free cash versus less taxable pension income - would be interested to know that. Often it's a measly 9 to 12 in DB pensions but would like to know what MP's get?

    Someone in the private sector would need circa £300,000 to get that £10,500pa - saving approx. £40,000pa in those 7 years.

    Someone elected for 13 years is looking at circa £20,000pa which is worth £600,000 or more...

    Imagine the leverage on their pensions if they do raise their salary to say £80k as well...

    No wonder there's so many MPs still and of course so many PPCs!!

    It's a disgrace.

  • Regarding OGH's comment on the LDs being down a point or two on what was their norm, did anyone else get on that market that the LDs wouldn't get 14% with YouGov before the start of 2014?

    (Personally I left it a bit too long and got only 1/3 just before it was withdrawn.)
  • Agree with DavidL that Christie's romp is significant - the next primary season may be the most boring ever if it turns out that Hillary/Christie are walkovers. Also worth noting that de Blasio won by an even bigger margin (49 points) than the polls suggested, despite the New York Post putting him on the cover with a huge hammer and sickle. Red smears are so last generation.

    Another crap night for the US polling institutes, in fact - they got all three rersults wrong quite significantly. Maybe they need the sort of "where are we going wrong?" rethink that we had in Britain after 1992.

    My betting bank wouldn't find it boring, Nick!

    Hillary is a shoo-in, I think, but not Christie. The GOP has some plausble alternatives this time - Rubio, Bush, and Ryan, for example. Martinez is interesting, and I understand Jindal is back in play.

    Christie is favorite but I don't think it will be dull. How could it be with Ted Cruz in the field?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Would Christie get the votes in the primaries in Red states? Probably not, but he may do so in a number of blue states.

    If selected, he probably has the best chance for the Republicans. Despite their nuttiness Republican Primaries do not tend to select the real headbangers. The swivel eyed loons spread their votes too thin over the field, so centrist Republicans tend to come through as candidate.
    JackW said:

    Much will depend on how pragmatic the GOP choose to be.

    McCain and Romney were clearly the best of a whacky job lot and so it may prove with Christie. He also has the advantage of putting a blue state back on the table as other states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio edge the other way.

  • R4 Robinson says Portsmouth shipyard to close.....

    Mike Hancock will aware of the electoral bonus that the LDs got from the closure of Redcar steelworks.

    Presumably the effect can also work with shipyards, in reverse.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Who will Unite choose for Glenrothes ?
  • Financier said:

    Apple announced this Monday that it will be building a manufacturing plant right here in the United States that will create more than 2,000 jobs. And that's not all. Its US manufacturing facility will also be running on 100 percent renewable energy! I'm not an Apple fan or hater, but when it comes to creating job opportunities in the US, producing something right here in the country I live in, and also using renewable energy, it's three wins in my opinion and I'm all for it. I think this is a great move by Apple and I hope the company brings more jobs back home.

    www.newsletters@cnet.online.com

    Productivity in the Chinese plants it uses is sub-optimal. Combined with continual unrest caused by the very bad conditions under which people work in them, the reputational issues this causes for Apple, IP leakage and the increasing costs of shipping, and the move makes perfect sense. A few other US companies are beginning to do the same.

    Some British companies are moving production from China as well, although only a little returns here to the UK. An example is the Raspberry Pi, now made at a Sony plant in South Wales.

    Another cost can be surprisingly significant. High-tech firms need people in the country - and even in the factories - to check process, quality control etcetera. Sadly, there are dangers to employing native Chinese staff for that role, and in one or two firms I've worked for, this is done by UK staff rotated over for months at a time. It is not a popular duty, and the pay can be significantly higher.

    So much so, one firm has shifted production to Korea. The situation is (slightly) better there.

    And Chinese companies are moving to Vietnam! Myanmar will also become a manufacturing centre now that it has opened up - the Japanese have got in there very early, apparently.

    The thing about low wage economies, though, is that the productivity is generally very poor as there is no incentive to invest in mechanisation, while education levels among workforces are extremely low. As they also tend to be a fair distance from many key markets, the initial saving can rapidly melt away, especially if there are other issues too.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited November 2013
    Many of the LD-LAB switchers are not natural supporters of either party. Rather they are part of that "party" that we don't often discuss - the Anti-CON party. They go with which ever party in their constituency looks best able to beat the Tories.

    We've yet to see much of an Anti-LAB party because CON voters seem to have been reluctant in the past to vote tactically. This is one of the reasons why the electoral system seems to be biased against the Tories. CON voters are more ready to waste their vote.
  • Very disappointed that Portsmouth shipyard is closing.. hope something can be done if possible.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2013

    DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

    I'm just waiting for him to pick a fight with the wrong elementary school teacher and get shredded on national TV by some little old lady who turns out to be sharper than he expected.

    But yeah, I think he can do it. He _would_ draw the ire of the Tea Party, but as previously the right may have a hard time getting behind a single candidate, especially if Rand Paul runs and gets the libertarian side, but fails to sew up the social conservative side and leaves that to Santorum or somebody like him.

    And what Christie has that Obama had and Romney didn't is attitude. Partisans will forgive quite a lot of doctrinal heresy if a candidate has a sufficiently fiery attitude about the other side. Being seriously rude about the Democrats should give him cover to cuddle up close to them on policy.
  • Nick Palmer:" I'm not sure about that "strong dislike", though...."

    Perhaps the words "strong resentment" would have been better. Possible switchers from Lab -> LibDem strongly resent the fact that the Yellows entered into coalition with the Tories in the first place and possible switchers from Con -> LibDem equally strongly resent the fact that the Yellows reneged (as they see it) on supporting the recommended Boundary Changes despite having been granted a referendum on PR voting.
  • R4 Robinson says Portsmouth shipyard to close.....

    Mike Hancock will aware of the electoral bonus that the LDs got from the closure of Redcar steelworks.

    Presumably the effect can also work with shipyards, in reverse.
    I wonder how many posts we'll get today from our friends on the left on "pork barrel politics"? Jolly good of them saving the business in a safe Labour seat where the MP wants to effectively close the yard if Scotland votes for independence.

  • Be bonkers if Portsmouth shipyard closes before the referendum result is known.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471

    R4 Robinson says Portsmouth shipyard to close.....

    I hope not. We got married on HMS Warrior in the Historic Dockyard, and knew a few people who work(ed) at the RN and BAE sites. Most had already been moved from the former Vosper base at Woolston in Southampton when that closed in the early 2000s.

    It will be interesting to see if BAE Systems Maritime move their headquarters from Portsmouth. Although it looks as though maintenance and repairs will continue at Portsmouth, why have their bases there, when the construction will occur further north?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    As is common with most councils, much effort is being made to save money for 2014/2015. My County Council has to save £7m. The chairman of the council phoned me last night (as I am always on his back about efficiency) and said that they found it easy to save £6m but the other £1m was proving more difficult and did I have any ideas.

    My response to him was, if that £6m was so easy to find, why were they spending it in the first place - response was none.
  • @scrapheap_as_was

    salary is 66,396 now. It will be 67,060 in April 2014
    They can exchange 25% of capital value for a free tax lump sum

  • Another crap night for the US polling institutes, in fact - they got all three rersults wrong quite significantly. Maybe they need the sort of "where are we going wrong?" rethink that we had in Britain after 1992.

    Yeah, I was being dismissive about the poll showing a 2% lead the other night because it seemed to have come from a student polling society. (Apparently that's a thing.) They turned out to be the ones who nailed it:
    http://www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    Nick Palmer:" I'm not sure about that "strong dislike", though...."

    Perhaps the words "strong resentment" would have been better. Possible switchers from Lab -> LibDem strongly resent the fact that the Yellows entered into coalition with the Tories in the first place and possible switchers from Con -> LibDem equally strongly resent the fact that the Yellows reneged (as they see it) on supporting the recommended Boundary Changes despite having been granted a referendum on PR voting.

    When was the referendum on PR voting? I keep a close eye on these things, and I'm sure I wouldn't have missed something like that!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    DavidL said:

    Rather than the Mayor of New York surely the most interesting result in the US overnight was Christie's romp in New Jersey winning large proportions of the votes that are not supposed to be available to Republicans such as blacks and hispanics.

    He is so clearly the republican favourite for 2016 that you begin to wonder what can go wrong. Presumably all the other candidates will gang up on him and his moderate positions will not play with some parts of the base but at the moment it is very hard to see that making enough of a difference.

    The issue for Christie is that he can run a campaign in New Jersey that does attract black and Hispanic voters. Can he do the same nationally and not draw the vetoing ire of the Tea Party?

    I'm just waiting for him to pick a fight with the wrong elementary school teacher and get shredded on national TV by some little old lady who turns out to be sharper than he expected.

    But yeah, I think he can do it. He _would_ draw the ire of the Tea Party, but as previously the right may have a hard time getting behind a single candidate, especially if Rand Paul runs and gets the libertarian side, but fails to sew up the social conservative side and leaves that to Santorum or somebody like him.

    And what Christie has that Obama had and Romney didn't is attitude. Partisans will forgive quite a lot of doctrinal heresy if a candidate has a sufficiently fiery attitude about the other side. Being seriously rude about the Democrats should give him cover to cuddle up close to them on policy.
    The Tea Party may view him as a RINO, but Christie is well to the Right of most North Eastern Republicans, and probably the most conservative governor New Jersey has had for years. I think he'll be in less difficulty over policy than a lot of people think.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Would Christie get the votes in the primaries in Red states? Probably not, but he may do so in a number of blue states.

    If selected, he probably has the best chance for the Republicans. Despite their nuttiness Republican Primaries do not tend to select the real headbangers. The swivel eyed loons spread their votes too thin over the field, so centrist Republicans tend to come through as candidate.

    JackW said:

    Much will depend on how pragmatic the GOP choose to be.

    McCain and Romney were clearly the best of a whacky job lot and so it may prove with Christie. He also has the advantage of putting a blue state back on the table as other states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio edge the other way.

    Much depends on the voting strictures in each state. Some allow independent registered voters and even crossover Democrats to vote in GOP primaries.

    The recent form is that early voting states allow themselves the luxury of voting for the whack jobs and then the race narrows to one normal human being and a representative of planet loony. Pragmatic Republicans and Conservatives then hold their nose and the humanoid wins the primary season.

This discussion has been closed.