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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the BBC and the Thatcher Funeral

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited April 2013 in General

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  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    First? Yep! Sadly that's the best thing to happen to me so far today. I hate Excel sometimes.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    Man City or second.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    F1: after claiming it wouldn't be pushed around, Pirelli has changed the tyre compounds for Bahrain.

    Instead of soft and hard the tyres will be medium and hard.

    http://www.espn.co.uk/bahrain/motorsport/story/105739.html
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Good one, Marf!

    But I expect the BBC will spend most of the day interviewing BBC reporters about whether the BBC coverage has been fair and balanced.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I have to say that BECTU have missed a trick in not holding a 24 hour strike tomorrow. The explosion of rage from the Daily Mail would have been worth it all by itself.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433



    Instead of soft and hard the tyres will be medium and hard.

    Given the tyre wear at Bahrain its not surprising. Its plausible that the soft compound may not last a lap which would be very embarrassing.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Good one, Marf!

    But I expect the BBC will spend most of the day interviewing BBC reporters about whether the BBC coverage has been fair and balanced.

    The BBC's arse-licking of the Tories re: Queen Margaret has been embarrasing to watch. Glad to know there is only one more day of sycophancy to go.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Mr. Eek, but if the tyres last a long time then Bahrain, a tedious circuit anyway, could see few pit stops and the most boring race so far this season.

    Furthermore, it looks like teams dictating a change.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Previous thread, I have no idea what the "Blairite" fossils are up to. Not as if they're going to destablise Miliband, and he's far too tough a character to be pushed in directions he doesn't want to go.

    Probably just raging against the dying of the light while their hero was in town.

    In any case, what would they suggest doing differently? Ceding ground to the Tories on the economy / austerity? It's no coincidence that Tories are urging Miliband to heed their advice.

    Further, the very fact that they're all talking about the best way to secure victory is testament to Miliband's leadership so far.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Excellent Marf.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Anyone know why the widget only works intermittently. That last thread it was fine, this one it is completely u/s.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    If only....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    carl said:

    Previous thread, I have no idea what the "Blairite" fossils are up to. Not as if they're going to destablise Miliband, and he's far too tough a character to be pushed in directions he doesn't want to go.

    Probably just raging against the dying of the light while their hero was in town.

    In any case, what would they suggest doing differently? Ceding ground to the Tories on the economy / austerity? It's no coincidence that Tories are urging Miliband to heed their advice.

    Further, the very fact that they're all talking about the best way to secure victory is testament to Miliband's leadership so far.

    Maybe Blair is asking Miliband to launch an attack on Syria while he is still Leader of the Oppo. He should just put on his tan and earn some of his millions from the country club rednecks in the US.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    On topic, I can't wait till the nauseating Thatcher worship from the BBC and others is over.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    tim said:

    Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 11m
    Big news is the sizeable cut in the IMF UK forecast for NEXT yr (most other countries unchanged). And last forecast was only 3 months ago!

    Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 5m
    Photo: Here’s the full table of the IMF’s revised growth forecasts for all major countries http://tmblr.co/ZFXaYyiq3Zk0

    To paraphrase a certain poster:

    The Good News Keeps on Coming!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,007
    @tim

    did you run out of ink to add the next bit in the report?

    "[The IMF] sees the 17-country euro area shrinking 0.3 percent" (downgraded from -0.2%)

    Thank goodness for George.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    BenM said:

    tim said:

    Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 11m
    Big news is the sizeable cut in the IMF UK forecast for NEXT yr (most other countries unchanged). And last forecast was only 3 months ago!

    Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 5m
    Photo: Here’s the full table of the IMF’s revised growth forecasts for all major countries http://tmblr.co/ZFXaYyiq3Zk0

    To paraphrase a certain poster:

    The Good News Keeps on Coming!
    Does Osborne know something about Cameron's past ? Otherwise, I cannot understand how can this one man disaster area continue.

    He is single-handedly *ucking the country !
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @tim

    @ChrisGiles_
    IMF's Blanchard names only one country that should consider easing fiscal policy further now - the UK
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @tim - shocking isn't it! The UK growth is now predicted to be lower than the following major European economies; , , , and. .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    When is the next guess as to GDP figures?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting news for Scotland price of oil in 2014: -4.9%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Yes, you can see the IMF forecasts are truly disastrous:

    "And, although, the UK suffered the sharpest downgrade, the IMF still expects the country to grow faster than Germany and France both this year and next."
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9997935/IMF-slashes-UK-growth-forecast-and-urges-George-Osborne-to-slow-austerity.html

    Oh, and they think we are going to grow faster than the OBR this year too.

    You also do have to wonder if the IMF actually read the budget. Their primary recommendation was that there should be a slow down in the rate of fiscal consolidation. Did they not notice that the deficit was going to remain at roughly the same level for 3 years? Did they not wonder why that was?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Elections expert David Boothroyd:

    "South Shields by-election: Notice of election issued:
    http://www.southtyneside.info/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=17145&p=0

    Close of nominations is 4 PM on Friday and polling day is 2 May."


    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent##ixzz2QdILGWDu
  • Interesting news for Scotland price of oil in 2014: -4.9%

    Eh? You know the price of oil in 2014, Carlotta?

    Can you also give us next year's Grand National winner while you are at it?
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited April 2013
    Will the BBC have OB's across the UK as people allegedly cheer the funeral cortege? I can picture cameras in the Rhondda and in Durham and in Scottish collieries, as well as asking people at Ravenscraig and Linwood if they had any happy memories of Thatcher and the tories in the 80's when manufacturing was an important employment industry.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Interesting news for Scotland price of oil in 2014: -4.9%

    Eh? You know the price of oil in 2014, Carlotta?

    Can you also give us next year's Grand National winner while you are at it?
    No - but I can read the IMF forecast, the topic under discussion.....

    http://edconway.tumblr.com/image/48117988224
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950
    Nice cartoon, Marf, as always!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,007
    @BenM @tim

    starter for 10:

    if EZ countries have the appropriate degree of fiscal consolidation, why is it not delivering growth this year?
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    tim said:

    Not good news for Osborne

    Although the 2013 forecast is marginally stronger than that of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 0.6%, the 2014 forecast is markedly weaker than the OBR’s 1.8%.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1078887/imf-inflicts-double-blow-on-george-osborne


    So a 15% uplift in the 2013 OBR growth forecast is "marginally stronger"
    Whilst a 12% downgrade in the 2014 growth forecast is "markedly weaker"

    I must have misunderstood the meanings of "marginally" and "markedly"

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,838
    Mr. 56, it wouldn't be Ed 'Tickets Please' Conway adopting that interesting approach to statistics, would it?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Rexel56 said:



    So a 15% uplift in the 2013 OBR growth forecast is "marginally stronger"
    Whilst a 12% downgrade in the 2014 growth forecast is "markedly weaker"

    I must have misunderstood the meanings of "marginally" and "markedly"

    You can't get more statistically illiterate than this.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I understand after the minor nutcases from the Chippin Norton Set they've now moved onto the heavy guns of screw loose conservatism with Kissinger Gingrich and Cheney. All they need now is the swivel-eyed Wolfowitz and they could start the third world war.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    On Topic

    Whatever the BBC does tomorrow it won't be as fawning, or as syrup-dripping deferential as it should be for many Tory anti BBC loons.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Rexel56 said:

    tim said:

    Not good news for Osborne

    Although the 2013 forecast is marginally stronger than that of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 0.6%, the 2014 forecast is markedly weaker than the OBR’s 1.8%.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1078887/imf-inflicts-double-blow-on-george-osborne


    So a 15% uplift in the 2013 OBR growth forecast is "marginally stronger"
    Whilst a 12% downgrade in the 2014 growth forecast is "markedly weaker"

    I must have misunderstood the meanings of "marginally" and "markedly"

    What an arse____ !
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @RichardNabavi

    Osborne is not only getting the big picture catastrophically wrong:

    @JBeattieMirror
    Shares for rights, planning free-for-all and funding for lending all slated and all stem from the Treasury. #blamegeorge
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    OK hands up, who couldn't see that the Supersized Conservatories policy was a car crash for the govt?

    Besides the govt of course.

    Why on earth do we need all these ludicrous planning restrictions?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    tim said:

    Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 11m
    Big news is the sizeable cut in the IMF UK forecast for NEXT yr (most other countries unchanged). And last forecast was only 3 months ago!

    Ed Conway ‏@EdConwaySky 5m
    Photo: Here’s the full table of the IMF’s revised growth forecasts for all major countries http://tmblr.co/ZFXaYyiq3Zk0

    To paraphrase a certain poster:

    The Good News Keeps on Coming!
    I have already posted on the IMF GDP forecasts when they were leaked to Bloomberg.

    You are quite right Ben, it is good news for Osborne and the UK

    2013

    World Output 3.3%

    Euro Area -0.6%

    Germany 0.6%
    France -0.1%
    Italy -1.5%
    Spain -1.6%
    UK 0.7%

    US 1.9%


    The UK and George Osborne lead the way in Europe even beating Germany.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    @ Richard

    try looking at the 3 year record. The UK is flatlining, how we can be pleased about that is anyone's guess, and that "growth" is on the back of substantial borrowing. The UK still hasn't hit it's peak output from the last cycle. What's to celebrate ?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    As I said on the last thread and today's IMF report makes clear -

    The Austerity strategy is one long, slow motion car crash that continues to do tremendous damage to the government and will do so right up to the 2015 election.

    It's a drip-drip-drip of economic poison that erodes any claim the Tories have towards economic competence.

    As soon as the Tories think Labour are catchable thanks to some mid term polls, some dire economic numbers will come out and they're immediately pole-axed again.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TOPPING said:

    @tim

    did you run out of ink to add the next bit in the report?

    "[The IMF] sees the 17-country euro area shrinking 0.3 percent" (downgraded from -0.2%)

    Thank goodness for George.

    It is interesting that the IMF have tweaked a few figures by small amounts since their draft report leaked last week to Bloomberg.

    UK GDP growth forecast for 2013 was 0.9% now 0.7%
    EU17 growth forecast for 2013 was -0.2% now -0.3%

    Perhaps a few adjustments have been made at the last minute to get back at Bloomberg!

    Still very good news for the UK.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    BenM said:

    @RichardNabavi

    Osborne is not only getting the big picture catastrophically wrong:

    @JBeattieMirror
    Shares for rights, planning free-for-all and funding for lending all slated and all stem from the Treasury. #blamegeorge

    Quoting the Mirror is hardly going to help your argument, is it?

    How exactly has George got the big picture 'catastrophically wrong', given that unemployment has been less bad that most of our trading partners, growth is better than the EU as a whole, and we can still borrow at very low rates despite Labour leaving us with public finances so disastrous that in 2010 we were running out of money at the end of the third week in every month? Do you even know the meaning of the word 'catastrophically '? If not, I suggest you read the history of the economic crisis of 1976. That was what getting things catastrophically wrong looks like.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    @AveryLP

    Yes, to borrow a metaphor from the chief fop-

    This is an 800m race. The starting gun went three years ago and thanks to the Tory team the UK is gasping and about to be lapped before getting to the second bend.

    But according to Tories that's ok, because we're now running at the same pace as everyone else!
  • @Carlotta

    "No - but I can read the IMF forecast, the topic under discussion....."

    Ah, I see.

    These would be the same forecasters that so accurately predicted the financial crisis?

    I mean, some people think I'm a bad tipster but compared to those guys....
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Why does anyone take any notice of IMF forecasts?
    Based on their track record it would seem a pointless exercise
    I note the joy of tim and co at reporting the forecast.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013

    . What's to celebrate ?

    What's to celebrate is that it's not a hell of a lot worse.

    Can people not get their heads round what danger we were in, with public spending 33% over tax revenue? And, what's more, to be stuck with this nightmare at a time when our main trading partners are also in dire straits.

    This was never going to be easy. It will take five years, maybe even more, to get back to sanity.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    @AveryLP

    Yes, to borrow a metaphor from the chief fop-

    This is an 800m race. The starting gun went three years ago but thanks to the Tory team the UK is about to be lapped before getting to the second bend.

    But according to Tories that's ok, because we're now running at the same pace as everyone else!

    Don't be silly, Ben.

    The UK is located in Europe and 50% of its trade is with the EU. The EU is and has been for over a year in deep recession.

    In the circumstances, positive growth at 1.1% above the EU average and higher growth than all our large EU competitors including Germany is a good performance.

    This particularly applies given the level of fiscal consolidation that has been undertaken by the government over the past three years.

    This is not Gordon growth fuelled by borrowing. Public Sector Net Borrowing has fallen by 33% over this period.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Holy Outlaws!

    "Stan Worby has now found himself on the other side of the law after being arrested and charged with burgling a garage.

    In a further twist, he is accused of carrying out the crime with the very suspect he took to the police in his caped crusader costume.

    Mr Worby, 39, a Chinese takeaway delivery driver, made headlines around the world after he was unmasked as the slightly paunchy Bradford Batman.

    He revealed that he had driven Daniel Frayne, 27, a friend who was wanted on warrant, to the police station in February after returning from a football game which he had attended in superhero fancy dress.

    At the time Mr Worby said: “I got some strange looks when I got to the cop station… One policeman looked at me and just laughed. I said to the policeman, ‘I deserve a medal, I'm a caped crusader’.”

    The pair came to the attention of West Yorkshire Police again when their vehicle was stopped by officers just after 4am on Sunday morning.

    They were arrested and charged with stealing power tools worth £770 from a garage in Bradford...." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9998022/Bradford-Batman-charged-with-burgling-garage.html
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,389
    edited April 2013
    currystar said:

    Why does anyone take any notice of IMF forecasts?
    Based on their track record it would seem a pointless exercise
    I note the joy of tim and co at reporting the forecast.

    In his book 'The Signal and The Noise' Nate Silver reflects on the accuracy of forecasters in a wide range of spheres. He notes considerable improvement in recent decades in notoriously difficulty spheres such as seismology and meteorology. Economic forecasting remains dismally unsuccessful however. In most cases guesswork is just as good, sometimes better.

    The current economic crisis is a good illustration.

    And yes, the IMF was as typically inaccurate as most.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @RichardNabavi
    This was never going to be easy. It will take five years, maybe even more, to get back to sanity.
    Honestly - Give up on the 5 year thing.

    Osborne's already stretched that to 7 years and it will be 8 by the time this financial year ends.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    @ Richard.

    yes lots of people can get their heads round it except perhaps GO, who keeps on spending. And as for the main trading partner argument well it's hardly a surprise we've lived with it for 3 years now and in that time HMG has dabbled with counter measures but not actually done anything substantive to offset it. So while we all know it was never going to be easy currently we have a CoE giving us pain without gain. The next government will still have to tackle the issues Osborne has ducked. 5 years wasted.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Good cartoon Marf.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,007
    @BenM @tim

    I am not too often prone to repeating myself but I will do so for your benefit now as you both seem to be playing a convoluted game of Mornington Crescent instead of addressing the IMF forecasts:

    why, if the EZ countries have adopted policies of appropriate fiscal consolidation, are those policies not expected to deliver growth this year?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    It's quite appropriate for tim and BenM to be placing their faith in IMF forecasts. After all the IMF will be running the country shortly after a Labour election victory.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    BenM said:

    @AveryLP

    Yes, to borrow a metaphor from the chief fop-

    This is an 800m race. The starting gun went three years ago but thanks to the Tory team the UK is about to be lapped before getting to the second bend.

    But according to Tories that's ok, because we're now running at the same pace as everyone else!

    Don't be silly, Ben.

    The UK is located in Europe and 50% of its trade is with the EU. The EU is and has been for over a year in deep recession.

    In the circumstances, positive growth at 1.1% above the EU average and higher growth than all our large EU competitors including Germany is a good performance.

    This particularly applies given the level of fiscal consolidation that has been undertaken by the government over the past three years.

    This is not Gordon growth fuelled by borrowing. Public Sector Net Borrowing has fallen by 33% over this period.
    Extremely limp Mr Pole, we're still borrowing one out of every five pounds we spend and will be for some time.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    When is the next guess as to GDP figures?

    I think it is a week from tomorrow.

    I don't think that the figure is going to be significantly different to 0, but the non significant deviation from that figure announced by the ONS, either positive or negative, are going to have a disproportionate impact on the media narrative.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @JohnRentoul: Only an "anchorite in a sealed cave" could not have known the meaning of Sally Bercow's tweet: Edward Garnier QC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22168191
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There was a UKIP party political broadcast yesterday but the BBC haven't put it on their website yet:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22094936
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013

    @ Richard.

    yes lots of people can get their heads round it except perhaps GO, who keeps on spending. And as for the main trading partner argument well it's hardly a surprise we've lived with it for 3 years now and in that time HMG has dabbled with counter measures but not actually done anything substantive to offset it. So while we all know it was never going to be easy currently we have a CoE giving us pain without gain. The next government will still have to tackle the issues Osborne has ducked. 5 years wasted.

    Nonsense. There is not an informed commentator anywhere who advocates a massively faster correction than Osborne is doing. He has judged it correctly - you can't just take out enough spending to correct a 33% overspend any faster than he is doing without creating massive problems, neither can you just ignore the problem as Krugman (and maybe Labour? Who knows?) suggest.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    BenM said:

    Rexel56 said:



    So a 15% uplift in the 2013 OBR growth forecast is "marginally stronger"
    Whilst a 12% downgrade in the 2014 growth forecast is "markedly weaker"

    I must have misunderstood the meanings of "marginally" and "markedly"

    You can't get more statistically illiterate than this.
    No Ben, the points stands. The journalist betrays his lack of objectivity by the terms he uses - 7/6 and 18/13 cannot be "marginal" and "marked" respectively in any objective use of language.

    You cannot accept that some are content with the economic performance - a very gradual return to modest growth is the optimum course for the country and was the best to be hoped for given the duration and scale of the period of uninterrupted growth up to 2008 (aka the boom). I'm an adherent to the Austrian school of economics, so I guess you'd consider me illiterate on that subject too. If there is to be a criticism of Osborne it is the flirtation with the underwriting of property loans.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @glasfet : Sally B loses round one, entirely predictably:

    Granting an application by Lord McAlpine, the judge ordered that there should be a preliminary hearing on what was the actual meaning of the words used in the tweet - both a natural and ordinary meaning and an innuendo meaning.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    @ Richard.

    yes lots of people can get their heads round it except perhaps GO, who keeps on spending. And as for the main trading partner argument well it's hardly a surprise we've lived with it for 3 years now and in that time HMG has dabbled with counter measures but not actually done anything substantive to offset it. So while we all know it was never going to be easy currently we have a CoE giving us pain without gain. The next government will still have to tackle the issues Osborne has ducked. 5 years wasted.

    Nonsense. There is not an informed commentator anywhere who advocates a massively faster corrections than Osborne is doing. He has judged it correctly - you can't just take out enough spending to correct a 33% overspend any faster than he is doing without creating massive problems, neither can you just ignore the problem as Krugman (and maybe Labour? Who knows?) suggest.
    No Richard the nonsense starts when people can't own up to their own failings. For GO this that he has no ideas on how to get growth back in the economy and has run a mile from long overdue structural reforms. He is a political Chancellor in in mould of Brown only more timid. It is GOs inability to return the UK to growth that is fundamnetally at the root of the deficit problem. And until he tackles, bank reform, tax reform and legislation he will stay in the slow lane and keep on borrowing as tax reciepts still won't overtaking spending. He should go and give the blues a fighting chance at the next GE.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Private Eye hits the bullseye for Mr Galloway

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/324162567742320640/photo/1
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Rexel56 said:


    No Ben, the points stands. The journalist betrays his lack of objectivity by the terms he uses - 7/6 and 18/13 cannot be "marginal" and "marked" respectively in any objective use of language.

    It's not 7/6 and 18/13 - it's 0.1% (marginal) and 0.3% (marked). But if you prefer to think that every media organisation in the country is biased instead.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    @ Richard

    try looking at the 3 year record. The UK is flatlining, how we can be pleased about that is anyone's guess, and that "growth" is on the back of substantial borrowing. The UK still hasn't hit it's peak output from the last cycle. What's to celebrate ?

    Here is a ten year view looking at both the current government (forecast 2014-15) and the previous Labour government. All stats from Eurostat. Both sets are indexed to 100 in calendar year before year of election.

    You will note that the UK under both governments has performed well against its major EU competitors, if not well against hopes. The folly of debt fuelled growth is shown however by Spain, which had a bigger boom and bust than is dreamt of in Gordon's philosophy.
    Blair,Brown / Brown,Darling Government
    |2004 | 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 |
    --------|-------------------------------------|
    Germany | 100 | 100.7 104.4 107.9 109.1 103.5 |
    Spain | 100 | 103.6 107.8 111.6 112.6 108.5 |
    France | 100 | 101.8 104.3 106.7 106.6 103.3 |
    Italy | 100 | 100.9 103.1 104.9 103.6 97.9 |
    UK | 100 | 102.8 105.5 109.3 108.2 103.9 |


    Cameron / Osborne Government
    | 2009| 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 |
    --------|-----|-------------------------------|
    Germany | 100 | 104.2 107.3 108.1 108.6 110.8 |
    Spain | 100 | 99.7 100.1 98.7 97.3 98.1 |
    France | 100 | 101.7 103.4 103.4 103.5 104.8 |
    Italy | 100 | 101.7 102.1 99.7 98.7 99.4 |
    UK | 100 | 101.8 102.8 103.1 104.1 106.0 |

    I think we can conclude that the economy is not flat-lining even if we can rightfully be disappointed at its level of growth when compared to regions outside Europe.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    For GO this that he has no ideas on how to get growth back in the economy and has run a mile from long overdue structural reforms.

    There IS no way to get growth back into the economy any faster than he is doing, in current world economic conditions. This is not a failing, it is reality. You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is). All he can do is exactly what he and his colleagues are doing: set a stable framework, gradually reduce taxes on business, retain the confidence of the markets, gradually get spending under control (but this takes years, not months), do the long hard slog of getting public procurement back towards sanity (another multi-year effort), address the perverse incentives of the welfare system, and so on.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @EU_Commission UK video games tax relief faces Commission scrutiny ow.ly/k6Qpw << France has done the same for film for years
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220

    You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is).

    You wave it at the Magic Money Tree and say the magic words "Hello, is that the IMF?"

    Borrow your way out of debt. What could possibly go wrong?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Where is this illusionary demand going to come from?

    Personal spending? The group think of the population is not to take on debt right now, so funding personal spending is tilted towards liquidating assets, reserves and less than is usual from debt.

    Corporate spending? The same applies here as to personal spending.

    Government Spending, there is no money.

    Tim tells us Immigration increases GDP, so that is one way to do it.

    Exports, well, into declining markets is tough, so target the new expanding markets.

    And what can GO (or any other cofe) do to alter any of it?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    glassfet said:

    You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is).

    You wave it at the Magic Money Tree and say the magic words "Hello, is that the IMF?"

    Borrow your way out of debt. What could possibly go wrong?
    "Inflation was at 30%"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuyCRsxlFOc
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT RichardNabavi said:
    You've got your negative externalities upside down. The negative externality is caused by the local being uneducatated, demotivated and given perverse incentives by the welfare system. It would be bonkers to penalise the company for these failures which are completely outside its control, just as it would be bonkers to penalise a company for not buying British goods if there were superior alternatives available from other countries.
    Absolutely education is a failure of the government to make sure that people are fit for work & that is something which they absolutely must address - I think that Gove's reforms will at least create an environment where this can happen. Similarly the welfare system creates peverse incentives and should (& is) being addressed.

    From a strictly economic perspective, though, the negative externality is the result of the hiring decision of the company imposing a cost on the rest of society. May be subsidising is just the easiest way (perhaps as simple as paying the company a percentage of the benefits the individual would receive (say 75% year one, 50% year 2, 25% year 3, repayable if they are sacked within 3 years of the last payment)? Just trying to think if there is a more creative way.

    The perspective I am coming from is that a company can only flourish in the long-term (multi-generational) as part of a thriving community. Purists claim that companies should be entirely distinct from the society in which they exist, but I'm not sure this is either realistic or healthy.

    Others:

    - HurstLlama: many of those restrictions already apply (my wife needed a work permit as an American and it was non-trivial)

    - DavidL: I agree. Wasn't thinking (yet) about consistency with EU rules, just musing on the overall topic

    - tim: pointless comment, again. By your logic the country would be better offer if all Brits were unemployed and all work in this country was done by foreigners who added greater economic value. Perhaps, from a very narrow economic perspective, but society would cease to function fairly quickly. Just look at the Spartans and Healots!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @carl

    'Further, the very fact that they're all talking about the best way to secure victory is testament to Miliband's leadership so far'

    Were some of them previously talking about the best way to secure defeat?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    BenM said:

    @AveryLP

    Yes, to borrow a metaphor from the chief fop-

    This is an 800m race. The starting gun went three years ago but thanks to the Tory team the UK is about to be lapped before getting to the second bend.

    But according to Tories that's ok, because we're now running at the same pace as everyone else!

    Don't be silly, Ben.

    The UK is located in Europe and 50% of its trade is with the EU. The EU is and has been for over a year in deep recession.

    In the circumstances, positive growth at 1.1% above the EU average and higher growth than all our large EU competitors including Germany is a good performance.

    This particularly applies given the level of fiscal consolidation that has been undertaken by the government over the past three years.

    This is not Gordon growth fuelled by borrowing. Public Sector Net Borrowing has fallen by 33% over this period.
    Extremely limp Mr Pole, we're still borrowing one out of every five pounds we spend and will be for some time.
    One in every six Mr. Broke and getting better by the quarter.

    But be realistic. Osborne can't perform miracles. He is merely a master strategist.

    We are getting there.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    Rexel56 said:



    So a 15% uplift in the 2013 OBR growth forecast is "marginally stronger"
    Whilst a 12% downgrade in the 2014 growth forecast is "markedly weaker"

    I must have misunderstood the meanings of "marginally" and "markedly"

    You can't get more statistically illiterate than this.
    0.3% doesn't deserve the term "markedly" in any event. It's virtually MoE in any forecast range.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    This is the most interesting paragraph I've found so far in the IMF document:

    Developing a comprehensive medium-term deficit reduction framework remains the top policy priority in the United States. Despite the progress made so far through discretionary spending caps and modest tax increases, a comprehensive plan is needed that includes entitlement reform and additional revenue-raising measures to put public debt on a sustainable footing. Such a comprehensive plan should place fiscal consolidation on a gradual path in the short term, in light of the fragile recovery and the limited room for monetary policy

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf

    Page 70

    The other forecast which is very striking is that they don't see any relief in the Eurozone unemployment figures - they forecast Eurozone unemployment will remain at 12.3% for both 2013 and 2014 (7.8% for the UK for both years). Given that that 12.3% will be disproportionately tilted towards Southern Europe, that's a grim forecast.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    For GO this that he has no ideas on how to get growth back in the economy and has run a mile from long overdue structural reforms.

    There IS no way to get growth back into the economy any faster than he is doing, in current world economic conditions. This is not a failing, it is reality. You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is). All he can do is exactly what he and his colleagues are doing: set a stable framework, gradually reduce taxes on business, retain the confidence of the markets, gradually get spending under control (but this takes years, not months), do the long hard slog of getting public procurement back towards sanity (another multi-year effort), address the perverse incentives of the welfare system, and so on.
    Ah yes the TINA argument, next it will be all the LDs fault. Start with reform. As I have pointed out before there are lots of things can be done; reform the banks and break some of the bigger one's up to get effective credit flow back in to the economy by setting up more competition in the High street and cutting out the dead hand of big corporatism. The UK economy will not get back on its feet until we restore functional credit markets. Equally Osborne's naivety in believing he can export himself to success in a global slowdown, when in fact as I have said to you before we need to be subsituting imports to get demand back on track is a more relaistic approach since it since within our own remit. Simplify the tax code so people understand it, not least those who administer it rather than add more chapters each year. As ever Osborne's supporters will claim there is no alternative until there is when GO panics with yet another gimmick and throws some more money at the problem.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    tim said:

    @philiph

    Osborne is borrowing and printing and stoking house prices with £130 billion of leveraged sub prime.

    Thats his growth plan, there is no money left?

    I'm afraid so. If we want houses then build them instead of stupid incentive schemes.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    john_zims said:

    @carl

    'Further, the very fact that they're all talking about the best way to secure victory is testament to Miliband's leadership so far'

    Were some of them previously talking about the best way to secure defeat?

    That a younger Mrs T would wipe out Little Ed's polling lead with ICM speaks volumes - I'm astonished given the bile heaped on her by the liberal media for the last two decades. Dancing on her grave is widely condemned, and she's gained very substantial support from the public as a Great PM of our time.

    I can only assume that the minority of Death To Thatcher t-shirt wearers and their older fellow travellers who largely seem to hale from the education sector and hard left [those who could be called Christine Blower for example] are clearly in a minority using any reputable yardstick.

    Even Ding Dong failed to make it to #1 - that must have hurt - Thatcher haters still couldn't win by paying 79p [how fitting given her first GE win].
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    . What's to celebrate ?

    What's to celebrate is that it's not a hell of a lot worse.

    Can people not get their heads round what danger we were in, with public spending 33% over tax revenue? And, what's more, to be stuck with this nightmare at a time when our main trading partners are also in dire straits.

    This was never going to be easy. It will take five years, maybe even more, to get back to sanity.
    I understand and accept that HMG cannot spend more than it raises in tax revenue indefinitely.

    What I cannot understand is why Osborne has not resigned given that the OBR now forecasts that we will borrow more than £100bn during every single year of this Parliament, the 2014-15 forecast now standing at £108bn.

    The Coalition government was formed with one overriding purpose - to bring the deficit under control. The constituent parties look likely to face the next election having failed to do this.

    By the very standards that they set for themselves they have failed. Perhaps they were impossible standards, but if that were the case they shouldn't have spent most of 2010 and 2011 telling everyone what a disaster it would be if they weren't met.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Yes, Osborne's strategy of gradually mending the economy leaves him completely alone in the World

    @JeffRandallLive: IMF says global economy is expected to continue mending "gradually" projecting 3.3% growth in 2013, and 4% in 2014

    Oh.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220

    What I cannot understand is why Osborne has not resigned given that the OBR now forecasts that we will borrow more than £100bn during every single year of this Parliament, the 2014-15 forecast now standing at £108bn.

    Speak to Alistair Darling...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @philiph

    Osborne is borrowing and printing and stoking house prices with £130 billion of leveraged sub prime.

    Thats his growth plan, there is no money left?

    More innumerate nonsense, tim.

    Here are the key findings of the House Price Index - February 2013 ONS bulletin released this morning.

    With CPI running at 2.7%, please point me to evidence of house price "stoking". House prices have fallen in real terms every year since the financial crisis. Only certain areas of London have seen price rises above inflation.

    • In the 12 months to February 2013 UK house prices increased by 1.9%, down from a 2.2% increase in the 12 months to January 2013.

    • House price growth remains relatively stable across most of the UK, although prices in London are increasing and prices in Northern Ireland are falling.

    • The year-on-year increase reflected growth of 2.1% in England and 4.1% in Wales, which were offset by declines of 1.2% in Scotland and 7.7% in Northern Ireland.

    • Annual house price increases in England were driven by a 5.9% rise in London and a 2.4% increase in the North East.

    • Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 0.6% in the 12 months to February 2013.

    • On a seasonally adjusted basis, UK house prices were unchanged between January and February 2013.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    @OblitusSumMe - By that argument, Churchill should have resigned when Lloyd George moved a motion of No Confidence in him on May 7th, 1941, or after the string of disasters culminating in the fall of Singapore in February 1942, or the fall of Tobruk in June 1942.

    Just because a task turns out to be even more difficult than expected is not a reason to give up, still less to give up in favour of those who propose not even bothering to try.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    BenM said:

    @AveryLP

    Yes, to borrow a metaphor from the chief fop-

    This is an 800m race. The starting gun went three years ago but thanks to the Tory team the UK is about to be lapped before getting to the second bend.

    But according to Tories that's ok, because we're now running at the same pace as everyone else!

    Don't be silly, Ben.

    The UK is located in Europe and 50% of its trade is with the EU. The EU is and has been for over a year in deep recession.

    In the circumstances, positive growth at 1.1% above the EU average and higher growth than all our large EU competitors including Germany is a good performance.

    This particularly applies given the level of fiscal consolidation that has been undertaken by the government over the past three years.

    This is not Gordon growth fuelled by borrowing. Public Sector Net Borrowing has fallen by 33% over this period.
    Extremely limp Mr Pole, we're still borrowing one out of every five pounds we spend and will be for some time.
    One in every six Mr. Broke and getting better by the quarter.

    But be realistic. Osborne can't perform miracles. He is merely a master strategist.

    We are getting there.
    Thank you for your comment Mr Piles, but wasn't it supposed to be about one in 12 now ? Why the substantial difference ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    I remember when the BBC was a great and impartial news site - here's a superb summary of the 1970s from 2007.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/6721709.stm

    "There were strikes, blackouts and piles of rotting rubbish in the 1970s, but was there a revolt, asks Andrew Marr, right, whose TV history of post-war UK continues on Tuesday.

    The biggest issue facing Edward Heath when he took office in 1970 was the economy. British productivity was pitifully low compared to America or Europe, never mind Japan.

    The country was spending too much on the glossy flood of new consumer goods and not nearly enough on modernised and more efficient factories and businesses. [Does this sound familiar, hmm?]

    Inflation was particularly worrying. Prices were rising by 7% and wage earnings by double that. This was still the old post-1945 world of fixed exchange rates which meant that the Heath government, just like those of Clement Attlee and Harold Wilson, faced a sterling crisis and perhaps yet another devaluation.

    Britain not only had heavy levels of unionisation through all the key industries but also, by modern standards, an incredible number of different unions - more than 600 altogether. Unofficial and wildcat strikes meant that even leaders of large unions had only a wobbly hold on what actually happened on the factory floor. It was a time of political militancy in the movement, a heady mix of left-wing idealism and naked greed.

    Heath immediately faced a dock strike, followed by a big pay settlement for local authority dustmen, then a power workers' go-slow which led to power cuts. Then the postal workers struck. The mood of the government was less focussed and less steely than it would be nine years later when Margaret Thatcher came to power.

    Much of the country was simply more left-wing than it was later. Socialism was popular with millions of working class people and was making fast inroads in the Labour Party.

    The unions, having defeated Wilson and Barbara Castle, were more self-confident than ever before or since.


    Many industrial workers, living in still-bleak towns far away from the glossy pop world of the big cities, did seem underpaid and left behind. The faster growing economies of France and Germany were a living rebuke to Whitehall. Scandals and satire had had their effect.

    What finished off the Heath government was the short war between Israel and Egypt in October 1973, the Yom Kippur war. It sparked an international oil crisis and demands from the miners for increased pay.

    The national speed limit was cut by 20 miles per hour to 50mph to save fuel. Then in January 1974 came the announcement of a three-day working week... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/6721709.stm
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2013

    @OblitusSumMe - By that argument, Churchill should have resigned when Lloyd George moved a motion of No Confidence in him on May 7th, 1941.

    Just because a task turns out to be even more difficult than expected is not a reason to give up, still less to give up in favour of those who propose not even bothering to try.

    Didn't Churchill state as soon as he formed the coalition that the United Kingdom would fight on, 'if necessary alone, if necessary for years'. I don't think his sober assessment of quite what a calamitous situation the country was in in 1940 can be compared to Osborne's ludicrous rhetoric of the United Kingdom being 'carried aloft by the march of the makers', and pledging to have net government debt as a percentage of GDP falling by 2015-2016.

  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    More unwelcome advice for Ed

    @JohnRentoul: "You seem to argue we cd borrow less if only we borrowed more. After nrly 50 yrs in business I know a tough sell when I see one." M Ashcroft

    @JohnRentoul: "You can’t expect voters to move towards you if they can’t tell where you are" Michael Ashcroft to EdM http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/04/a-memo-to-ed-miliband.html
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Meanwhile Ed's having a good year.

    ' Although Labour's one-point slippage from last month is not in itself significant, his lead in the Guardian/ICM series has now halved from 12 to six points in the two months since February. Worse, his personal ratings are sinking deeper into negative territory – a majority of 51% say he is doing a bad job, as against just 28% who think he is doing well.

    That gives a net approval rating of -23, almost double his negative May 2012 score of -12, and worse even than the -17 he notched up in December 2011, when his party was behind in the polls overall and his leadership appeared insecure.'




  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    For GO this that he has no ideas on how to get growth back in the economy and has run a mile from long overdue structural reforms.

    There IS no way to get growth back into the economy any faster than he is doing, in current world economic conditions. This is not a failing, it is reality. You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is). All he can do is exactly what he and his colleagues are doing: set a stable framework, gradually reduce taxes on business, retain the confidence of the markets, gradually get spending under control (but this takes years, not months), do the long hard slog of getting public procurement back towards sanity (another multi-year effort), address the perverse incentives of the welfare system, and so on.
    ... As I have pointed out before there are lots of things can be done; reform the banks and break some of the bigger one's up to get effective credit flow back in to the economy by setting up more competition in the High street and cutting out the dead hand of big corporatism. The UK economy will not get back on its feet until we restore functional credit markets.
    The problem with the banks is that they need to increase their capital by £25 bn (net) in order to meet new regulatory requirements necessary to protect the taxpayers against further bailouts in the event of another systemic crash in asset values.

    The additional capital requirements are mostly required due to the extent of mortgage lending on the main high street banks' books. Osborne and the BoE are working on plans to extract large chunks of mortgage assets from the banks' balance sheets so that new capital requirements are lowered and existing capital is freed for lending.

    The restructuring will also improve share value and bring forward the opportunity for the government to sell its share holdings in the 'nationalised' bank groups.

    Part of the restructuring is likely to involve the creation of new retail banks, some focussed on specific regions which would benefit from a local lending focus.

    All that you ask for is being done, Mr. Brooke.

    I bet you can't wait for your breakfast eggs to boil for three and a half minutes in the morning.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @glasfet - A very good article by Lord Ashcroft.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles.

    Fining companies for hiring foreigners, sure you've thought that through?

    Lets imagine the court cases involving just one footballer's transfer from France to England shall we?

    It's not a fine. It's a debate on whether there is a way to close the negative externalities through contributions from the beneficiaries to the losers (e.g. as we do on planning)
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220

    @glasfet - A very good article by Lord Ashcroft.

    Hang on, someone will be along in a minute to tell you how wrong he is about everything. Ed's blank piece of paper is brilliant. The 35% strategy is simultaneously a work of genius and fiction. Ed Balls is an electoral asset. Ed Balls says so.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @guyadams: Full horror of Tory cuts revealed as Guardian reader has to re-wire a plug "because I can't afford an electrician" https://witness.guardian.co.uk/assignment/516beb30e4b046e93b9623d2
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    glassfet said:

    More unwelcome advice for Ed

    @JohnRentoul: "You seem to argue we cd borrow less if only we borrowed more. After nrly 50 yrs in business I know a tough sell when I see one." M Ashcroft

    @JohnRentoul: "You can’t expect voters to move towards you if they can’t tell where you are" Michael Ashcroft to EdM http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/04/a-memo-to-ed-miliband.html

    EdM has proven more resilient than I initially expected.

    But given that he knifed his brother who then chose to be elsewhere instead of EdM's wedding reception - that takes an enormous amount of fraternal animus. Yet he has shown an absence of such willingness to stand up/be that unpopular to his union backers and to my view is a bit of a puppet leader/paper tiger who doesn't stick to his guns at all when the chips are down.

    Labour under EdM has gone 'core vote' over welfare reform despite his actual *Working* Class voters disliking the old system, has mealy mouthed on immigration which is another bone of contention and failed to address any of the wider economic issues as he shakes the money tree.

    Apart from some micro win for Guardianistas re Leveson/Hacked Off/riots whatever - does this explain why his personal rating is at an all time low for his leadership?

    He seems to be doing a bit better/less shouty at PMQs and got a thumbs up for his response to Mrs T's death - but its not cutting the mustard at all.

    Perhaps being the son of a Marxist Primrose Hill prof isn't the right man for the job either, if Mrs T can wipe him out 3yrs into a 5yrs term.

    If I still voted Labour - I'd be very worried at what the public were saying, rather than Labour supporters shouting the opposite in desperation.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    AveryLP said:

    For GO this that he has no ideas on how to get growth back in the economy and has run a mile from long overdue structural reforms.

    There IS no way to get growth back into the economy any faster than he is doing, in current world economic conditions. This is not a failing, it is reality. You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is). All he can do is exactly what he and his colleagues are doing: set a stable framework, gradually reduce taxes on business, retain the confidence of the markets, gradually get spending under control (but this takes years, not months), do the long hard slog of getting public procurement back towards sanity (another multi-year effort), address the perverse incentives of the welfare system, and so on.
    ... As I have pointed out before there are lots of things can be done; reform the banks and break some of the bigger one's up to get effective credit flow back in to the economy by setting up more competition in the High street and cutting out the dead hand of big corporatism. The UK economy will not get back on its feet until we restore functional credit markets.
    The problem with the banks is that they need to increase their capital by £25 bn (net) in order to meet new regulatory requirements necessary to protect the taxpayers against further bailouts in the event of another systemic crash in asset values.

    The additional capital requirements are mostly required due to the extent of mortgage lending on the main high street banks' books. Osborne and the BoE are working on plans to extract large chunks of mortgage assets from the banks' balance sheets so that new capital requirements are lowered and existing capital is freed for lending.

    The restructuring will also improve share value and bring forward the opportunity for the government to sell its share holdings in the 'nationalised' bank groups.

    Part of the restructuring is likely to involve the creation of new retail banks, some focussed on specific regions which would benefit from a local lending focus.

    All that you ask for is being done, Mr. Brooke.

    I bet you can't wait for your breakfast eggs to boil for three and a half minutes in the morning.

    Total scaredy cat bollocks Mr P. On the scale of what we're borrowing £25bn to recapitalise banks is nothing. If it gets them back in to the business of greasing the wheels of commerce and the economy gowing again it will be £25bn well spent and quickly pay for itself. As it is Mr P the current approach will cost us all more money in the medium term as it is based on inflating away the problem - very new Labour - so people still get robbed, but you hope they don't notice. As for your promise of jam tomorrow, that's really nice, but a competent Chancellor would have had it on the table yesterday.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery.

    His sub prime lending plan hasn't started yet, besides that,excellent argument.

    Silly boy!

    I have set out the current outlook for the housing market and housebuilding sector. In other words, house prices are falling in real terms and have been since 2008.

    George's stimulus is aimed at stabilising not inflating house prices.

    Silly, silly boy!

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    glassfet said:

    @guyadams: Full horror of Tory cuts revealed as Guardian reader has to re-wire a plug "because I can't afford an electrician" https://witness.guardian.co.uk/assignment/516beb30e4b046e93b9623d2

    Is that from The Mash, unless someone is extracting the urine from The Guardian.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    For GO this that he has no ideas on how to get growth back in the economy and has run a mile from long overdue structural reforms.

    There IS no way to get growth back into the economy any faster than he is doing, in current world economic conditions. This is not a failing, it is reality. You seem to think there's some magic wand which he is wilfully refusing to wave (although you never tell us what it is). All he can do is exactly what he and his colleagues are doing: set a stable framework, gradually reduce taxes on business, retain the confidence of the markets, gradually get spending under control (but this takes years, not months), do the long hard slog of getting public procurement back towards sanity (another multi-year effort), address the perverse incentives of the welfare system, and so on.
    ... As I have pointed out before there are lots of things can be done; reform the banks and break some of the bigger one's up to get effective credit flow back in to the economy by setting up more competition in the High street and cutting out the dead hand of big corporatism. The UK economy will not get back on its feet until we restore functional credit markets.
    The problem with the banks is that they need to increase their capital by £25 bn (net) in order to meet new regulatory requirements necessary to protect the taxpayers against further bailouts in the event of another systemic crash in asset values.

    The additional capital requirements are mostly required due to the extent of mortgage lending on the main high street banks' books. Osborne and the BoE are working on plans to extract large chunks of mortgage assets from the banks' balance sheets so that new capital requirements are lowered and existing capital is freed for lending.

    The restructuring will also improve share value and bring forward the opportunity for the government to sell its share holdings in the 'nationalised' bank groups.

    Part of the restructuring is likely to involve the creation of new retail banks, some focussed on specific regions which would benefit from a local lending focus.

    All that you ask for is being done, Mr. Brooke.

    I bet you can't wait for your breakfast eggs to boil for three and a half minutes in the morning.

    .... As for your promise of jam tomorrow, that's really nice, but a competent Chancellor would have had it on the table yesterday.
    You want jam with your under-boiled eggs?

    Is this a Warwickshire speciality?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles.

    It's not a fine. It's a debate on whether there is a way to close the negative externalities through contributions from the beneficiaries to the losers

    It's a fine.

    So go on, tell me who do Arsenal pay their fine to when they sign a French left back?

    Have a discussion on the concept, don't just try and rubbish things.

    The issue, fundamentally, is what is good for a company is not necessarily good for the current residents of the UK. How do you close that gap?

    Do you think that a commitment to build affordable housing as a condition of a planning consent is a fine?
This discussion has been closed.