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The last rites have not yet been spoken and already the heirs are gathered around the deathbed and stripping the rings off Theresa May’s fingers. The collective assumption of most Conservative MPs, which may yet be wrong, is that the Conservative role of party leader is shortly to fall vacant. Who might her replacement be?
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Anyway, lay Boris (PCP hate him) and lay Gove (wants to be kingmaker).
I said in 2017 she might be the tallest dwarf left standing.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/31/three-tips-on-who-might-be-theresa-mays-successor/
Then I remembered Thatcher died six years ago.
Bravo sir!!! Most enjoyable.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/23/senior-brexiteers-touting-nicky-morganas-potential-successor/
We could mention Adonis.
But we must also mention Morgan.
> 1st?
>
> Anyway, lay Boris (PCP hate him) and lay Gove (wants to be kingmaker).
Boris slashed the Labour lead to 1% with Comres at the weekend taking the Tories from 19% under May to 26% with him and halved the Brexit Party total from 20% to 10%.
Most middle of the road Tory MPs want to protect their seats and if he is the best option to step the Brexit Party tide many will back him, some reports have put Boris on 50 MPs.
If not Boris, Raab and Hancock both seem to be gaining support at Westminster, though Leadsom or Patel I think would do well with the membership if they got through. Hunt still leads with MPs with about 70 to 80 reportedly behind him but he trails in the Tory membership polls
The winner will have to pick up the pieces after May.
Truss would be my pick, but she should shy away from the fashion shoots.
> A truly terrifying and depressing list! The leadership will surely go to the Leaveriest Leaver who can get into the final two. What will be intriguing is if two Leavers somehow make it there. It will be weeks of fighting over who is the purest.
I agree!
Further to that, this country is heading for a very painful reckoning. I worry for my future with some of the zealots being lined up for the leadership and short-lived occupancy of No10. Then we get the equally dreadful Corbyn...
"None of these is good enough to win but one of them has to. My pin fell on..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD2uIfNmwZI
> I've got decent odds on a few of these, but right now I agree with Alastair that McVey might be the one to watch.
I find her repulsive and other people I talk politics with find her equally appalling. What value would McVey bring the Tories in seats? I mean Liverpool and the Greater Merseyside area is sterile ground for the Tories. What would be the point of her being leader as she brings no big ideas, her personality is not very attractive either and her attitude to welfare claimants flies in the face of the one area she might appeal in which is Liverpool and Merseyside....
> Excellent piece. Disappointed that it didn't mention that Andrea Leadsom is a mother, though, next to which all others' leadership qualifications melt away.
I am sure that the baby eaters would favour such a fecund source of nutrition.
She did not, for example, appoint a Chief Inspector of Schools who had no experience of teaching and if performance managed in her previous role would have been sacked for gross incompetence.
> Nicky Morgan has shown loyalty? Apart from the times she called on Theresa May to go, and courted Brexiteers to back her for the leadership with her bizarre manoeuvres over the Malthouse Compromise.<
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/23/senior-brexiteers-touting-nicky-morganas-potential-successor/
>
> There are not many people who made a worse mess at education than Gove.
>
> We could mention Adonis.
>
> But we must also mention Morgan.
>
> Estelle.
>
> She didn't make a mess. She just wasn't very good.
>
> She did not, for example, appoint a Chief Inspector of Schools who had no experience of teaching and if performance managed in her previous role would have been sacked for gross incompetence.
I think Morris had a lack of self confidence. She did no worse than any of the others who have failed to raise standards for many years despite extra spending....
80s post-modern fiction trumps 80s pop music any day!
> Cornelius Lysaght gives a horseracing commentary on the leadership stakes.
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD2uIfNmwZI
Alastair's jokes were funnier.
> 'Most photographed barn in America': Good to see an allusion to DeLillo's White Noise on PB.
The whole contest is going to be an airborne toxic event.
> A truly terrifying and depressing list! The leadership will surely go to the Leaveriest Leaver who can get into the final two. What will be intriguing is if two Leavers somehow make it there. It will be weeks of fighting over who is the purest.
The list: Yes and no.
All of the list have managed to accumulate quite strong negatives, but most have strong positives too.
Imagine compiling a similar list for the other parties. If you ran a tuck-shop at school you'd be well on your way. (I guess that Corbyn's early years had being charged double at the tuck-shop as one of his defining moments! Should have been quadruple at least.)
It's likely we'll get a very compromised next Tory leader, and almost certainly they'll be the PM too. We'll most likely get a quite capable figure though. Of the possibilities there's only Davis, Williamson, and Baker that are total-fail candidates.
No-one would have suspected IDS of hidden talents but look where he got to !
Gove was an exception to the first, but he had neither the insight nor the sense to do anything positive about it. Morris was also an exception, but she had not the political skill to exploit it. Morgan was just an idiot, but the consequences of her idiocy have been very serious.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > Cornelius Lysaght gives a horseracing commentary on the leadership stakes.
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD2uIfNmwZI
>
> Alastair's jokes were funnier.
There is that but otoh Cornelius went to Eton so might have more insight into one or two candidates.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > I've got decent odds on a few of these, but right now I agree with Alastair that McVey might be the one to watch.
>
> I find her repulsive and other people I talk politics with find her equally appalling. What value would McVey bring the Tories in seats? I mean Liverpool and the Greater Merseyside area is sterile ground for the Tories. What would be the point of her being leader as she brings no big ideas, her personality is not very attractive either and her attitude to welfare claimants flies in the face of the one area she might appeal in which is Liverpool and Merseyside....
I didn't say that it would necessarily be a good appointment!
They are not looking for a unity candidate, despite words to the contrary the actions of the various factions would indicate they want to see the other cast out if they win. That they also pretend they can win an election while splitting like that is deeply sad for them.
The country’s needs are more important than the desires of Tory party members.
The Glorious 27!
In Oxfordshire, three primary schools have been Ofstedded as 'inadequate' within the last week alone. All three were LA-maintained rather than academies. There is basically no support for LA schools any more: you're on your own - and a more active LA would have spotted the issues and intervened. Yet the good academy trusts are few and far between, and being very cautious about taking on too many schools.
I wonder if the cuts upon cuts upon cuts are finally going to break as a national story this year.
You mispelled 'certainly'.
> Could we make them go through US-style primaries, where they first have to pass muster in Worcester before heading to Barrow-in-Furness, followed by a Super Tuesday to whittle them down?
We might have to settle for Tragic Thursday
> Any candidate backing No Deal in principle is not fit to be Prime Minister, however much it may qualify them to be Tory Party leader.
>
> The country’s needs are more important than the desires of Tory party members.
-------------------------------------
The idiots should have backed the WA when they had the chance, then elected someone who would make all the right noises about being as harsh toward the EU in the next phase as possible.
For all May has earned plenty of ire for being frozen in place for half a year, which is plenty damaging, we would have left in non-damaging fashion (inasmuch as any leave is non damaging) if they'd just listened to her (which even JRM and Boris did, proving themselves to be quite dim because it took 4 months of people telling them that if they said no it might end up with 'no Brexit' before they noticed the same thing), and yet she is the one they and the members are most mad at (yeah yeah, it is not real brexit and whatnot, something only a minority of the ERG believe as proven by most voting for the WA in the end).
It's why May will go soon, for real this time - she would not have been frozen in place this long if she were willing to no deal, she must think similarly to you on the matter.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Could we make them go through US-style primaries, where they first have to pass muster in Worcester before heading to Barrow-in-Furness, followed by a Super Tuesday to whittle them down?
>
> We might have to settle for Tragic Thursday
If they vote for Hardman Baker it will be Tumescent Tuesday
Boris maybe.
> Gove would be the most interesting. For all his flaws he actually stands up and defends when he changes position with an impressive amount of effort, rather than whinge endlessly and when pressed maybe do a few words about the current path being the right one, even as they prepare the way to say how much they hated all of this. Granted, he would cause ydoethur to not back the party, but I would say he has been one of the more grown up over Brexit since the referendum finished.
I find Gove insincere, smug and untrustworthy! I cannot stand him. He is like Gordon Brown in his repulsiveness to voters. Mind you most of the Tories cited in the article have defects. The best of them are all remain supporters such as Amber Rudd and Mark Harper, who are both non starters in the Europhobic tory party of today.
The UK is on the rocks, it will not be long before the ship is scuttled. Still the Brexit supporting media seemed to be doubling down on their campaign for Brexit, which is relentless...
> > @kle4 said:
> > Gove would be the most interesting. For all his flaws he actually stands up and defends when he changes position with an impressive amount of effort, rather than whinge endlessly and when pressed maybe do a few words about the current path being the right one, even as they prepare the way to say how much they hated all of this. Granted, he would cause ydoethur to not back the party, but I would say he has been one of the more grown up over Brexit since the referendum finished.
>
> I find Gove insincere, smug and untrustworthy! I cannot stand him. He is like Gordon Brown in his repulsiveness to voters. Mind you most of the Tories cited in the article have defects. The best of them are all remain supporters such as Amber Rudd and Mark Harper, who are both non starters in the Europhobic tory party of today.
>
>
> The UK is on the rocks, it will not be long before the ship is scuttled. Still the Brexit supporting media seemed to be doubling down on their campaign for Brexit, which is relentless...
---------------------
I don't say that I necessarily think Gove would be good, trustworthy or sincere. But taking it as read that most of the candidates would be unacceptable based on their views for a lot of people here, Gove has qualities others lack and more political skills, as well as demonstrably putting in effort. I doubt it is sufficient to repair his reputation with leavers or make him suddenly popular with the public, but I think they could do a lot worse than Gove.
> What on Earth has happened to Dirty Leeds in the last 20 minutes of football?
Derby had their spies out?
Let us start off with the minor insignificant counties like Suffolk, Essex, and Lancashire, then culminate in Super Thursday when Yorkshire and the Humber votes in the primaries.
> The UK primaries should be conducted on county lines.
>
> Let us start off with the minor insignificant counties like Suffolk, Essex, and Lancashire, then culminate in Super Thursday when Yorkshire and the Humber votes in the primary.
One of them needs to have a bacon sandwich festival so their ability to eat elegantly can be vetted.
Perhaps they should have a contest to see if they are worthy of wielding Thor's Mjolnir.
I'll be honest though, I prefer Thor's axe.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Oh poor Nigel . A few Remain supporters turned up and now he’s playing the martyr .
> > >
> > > Shall we start a Je Suis Nigel# campaign .
> >
> > Like him or loath him he is good at winding people up and remainers trying to blockade him is a gift he will take full advantage off
>
> Seeing as it's in a supermarket car park then I guess the appropriate response would be "every little helps"? <
+++++
When the Brexit Part'y's USP is "our democratic voices are being silenced", the idea that by "silencing the democratic voices of the Brexit Party" you might somehow undermine them is.... interesting.
It is also stupid, wanky, arrogant, twattish, narcissistic and supremely myopic and self indulgent, and, as such, everything you have come to expect from Remainerdom, since June 2016. And I am a Remainer.
Remain really did deserve to lose. Sadly. And they would probably contrive to lose again, given the chance.
Flag Quote ·
"As a general rule the able candidates are ruled out by their views on Brexit while the candidates with appropriate views on Brexit are ruled out by their ability."
Priceless.
> If any of the candidates had never existed, would we have noticed?
>
> Boris maybe.
Have you been watching It's A Wonderful Life?
> Excellent piece. Disappointed that it didn't mention that Andrea Leadsom is a mother, though, next to which all others' leadership qualifications melt away. <
+++
You clearly write in jest. But I wonder if T May's travails are, partly, due to her childless status,
Parenting teaches you empathy, even if you are naturally unempathetic. You are given a small wailing creature - maybe several of them - and you HAVE to work out what they want. Parenting is a moral and emotional education. An education that T May never had, but from which she might have benefited, and therefore been less of a disaster.
A politician who is at ease with kids is a politician who will be at ease with voters. I think, subliminally, that's what we all read from the baby-kissing photo ops, and there may be some validity in the reading.
I do realise that by posting this I apparently am insulting all childless commenters on the site, and I am sorry for that, and I do not mean to hurt. But there is a debate to be had on this issue.
We're so deeply screwed. It's not like remaining will result in one big happy family in the nation either.
Being serious though it’s all pretty horrific . The Tory Membership have now become like a death cult .
It will be a race to see who can be as anti EU as possible , the winner the one who delivers the best no deal speech .
Meanwhile the rest of the country and business will look on in horror and realize they’re now collateral damage to the wishes of the membership who could care less.
Best take advantage of your freedom of movement and escape while you can.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > Excellent piece. Disappointed that it didn't mention that Andrea Leadsom is a mother, though, next to which all others' leadership qualifications melt away. <
>
> +++
>
> You clearly write in jest. But I wonder if T May's travails are, partly, due to her childless status,
>
> Parenting teaches you empathy, even if you are naturally unempathetic. You are given a small wailing creature - maybe several of them - and you HAVE to work out what they want. Parenting is a moral and emotional education. An education that T May never had, but from which she might have benefited, and therefore been less of a disaster.
>
> A politician who is at ease with kids is a politician who will be at ease with voters. I think, subliminally, that's what we all read from the baby-kissing photo ops, and there may be some validity in the reading.
>
> I do realise that by posting this I apparently am insulting all childless commenters on the site, and I am sorry for that, and I do not mean to hurt. But there is a debate to be had on this issue.
>
-----------------------------------
Well at least you recognise that, but as part of that debate I just don't see how people come to this conclusion about parenting. It would probably take all of 5 minutes to track down truly excellent world leaders in history who were childless, and any number of genuinely terrible ones who not only had kids but might even have been decent parents. At the very least it is clear that merely having kids does not confer people with this moral and emotional education that you think is important, so since it is not guaranteed to come with parentage, it is surely also possible to gain this education without being a parent.
That's what it boils down to for me - people are perfectly capable of being shit or great whether they are parents or not. Even if one thinks it more likely that one will have the necessary qualities as a result of being a parent since it is demonstrably not essential or automatic as a result of being a parent, I think it unnecessary to speculate as to that being the reason or even a reason for May being crap.
> Penny Mordaunt should win . Great hair and could have been in a Bond movie , she has a vixenish appeal !
>
> Being serious though it’s all pretty horrific . The Tory Membership have now become like a death cult .
>
> It will be a race to see who can be as anti EU as possible , the winner the one who delivers the best no deal speech .
>
> Meanwhile the rest of the country and business will look on in horror and realize they’re now collateral damage to the wishes of the membership who could care less.
>
> Best take advantage of your freedom of movement and escape while you can.
The start of your comment reminds me of Yes Minister/ Prime minister where one sage observed that the people who read the sun do not care who is PM as long as she has big tits! The sun of course have stopped page 3 I understand but the quote from yes minister is still funny!
> Article of the year. Worthy of a national newspaper.
>
>
>
> "As a general rule the able candidates are ruled out by their views on Brexit while the candidates with appropriate views on Brexit are ruled out by their ability."
>
>
>
> Priceless.
>
> PB is very lucky to have Alastair, Cyclefree, and David Herdson regularly writing pieces that are worthy of national newspaper comment and analysis sections.
Absolutely
> No Ruth?
Dealt with last year:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/17/ruthless-people-the-conservatives-lose-a-leadership-contender/
>
> That's what it boils down to for me - people are perfectly capable of being shit or great whether they are parents or not. Even if one thinks it more likely that one will have the necessary qualities as a result of being a parent since it is demonstrably not essential or automatic as a result of being a parent, I think it unnecessary to speculate as to that being the reason or even a reason for May being crap. <
+++++
Fair enough. I do see how my remarks could appear nasty, even inhumane. Which is why they were heavily caveated.
But put it this way: if T May was the mother of four boisterous kids - from a giggly infant to reasonably adjusted teens, with a bit of rebellion - then, 1. it would make her more relatable (and popular), 2, it would show she's a decent mother, and that does mean something (however unfairly)
On the other hand, recent prime ministers have all had kids, from Blair to Brown to Cameron, and they've all been pretty disastrous, so maybe this is truly meaningless (beyond the ability to attract votes as an ordinary family man or woman)
> Article of the year. Worthy of a national newspaper.
>
>
>
> "As a general rule the able candidates are ruled out by their views on Brexit while the candidates with appropriate views on Brexit are ruled out by their ability."
>
>
>
> Priceless.
>
> PB is very lucky to have Alastair, Cyclefree, and David Herdson regularly writing pieces that are worthy of national newspaper comment and analysis sections. <
++++++
You are.
Are you paying them yet?
"Andrea Leadsom – one of a very select group of politicians whose reputation has been enhanced in this government. If she runs she should be a very serious candidate indeed. (27/1)"
> Penny Mordaunt should win . Great hair and could have been in a Bond movie , she has a vixenish appeal !
>
> She looks OK
Anyone in a skirt Sunil?
> > @kle4 said:
>
> >
> > That's what it boils down to for me - people are perfectly capable of being shit or great whether they are parents or not. Even if one thinks it more likely that one will have the necessary qualities as a result of being a parent since it is demonstrably not essential or automatic as a result of being a parent, I think it unnecessary to speculate as to that being the reason or even a reason for May being crap. <
>
> +++++
>
> Fair enough. I do see how my remarks could appear nasty, even inhumane. Which is why they were heavily caveated.
>
> But put it this way: if T May was the mother of four boisterous kids - from a giggly infant to reasonably adjusted teens, with a bit of rebellion - then, 1. it would make her more relatable (and popular), 2, it would show she's a decent mother, and that does mean something (however unfairly)
>
> On the other hand, recent prime ministers have all had kids, from Blair to Brown to Cameron, and they've all been pretty disastrous, so maybe this is truly meaningless (beyond the ability to attract votes as an ordinary family man or woman)
>
------------------
I don't think you were being nasty, it's a debate, and your view is one plenty of people will share either completely or in part - there's a reason that people tend to think 'good family man/woman, good family values' is a selling point. I can even see the qualities of a good parent which would be a positive thing to see . But as you note with PMs with kids it is no guarantee - I would tend to think that the kind of people who are capable of becoming PM are exceptional enough (not necessarily exceptionally good, just exceptional in being different to most people in the country) that any general benefit one might think there would be from being a parent would be eclipsed by natural political skills that are needed.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Article of the year. Worthy of a national newspaper.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > "As a general rule the able candidates are ruled out by their views on Brexit while the candidates with appropriate views on Brexit are ruled out by their ability."
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Priceless.
>
> >
>
> > PB is very lucky to have Alastair, Cyclefree, and David Herdson regularly writing pieces that are worthy of national newspaper comment and analysis sections. <
>
>
>
> ++++++
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> You are.
>
>
>
> Are you paying them yet?
>
> No, they do it for the honour of being published on PB.
Tis the dream of us all.
> Andrea Leadson comes out of Alastair's rundown quite well?
>
>
> "Andrea Leadsom – one of a very select group of politicians whose reputation has been enhanced in this government. If she runs she should be a very serious candidate indeed. (27/1)"
Very serious indeed, certainly about jelly babies
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127922320813776896?s=20
>
>
>
>
>
>
> You are.
>
>
>
> Are you paying them yet?
>
> No, they do it for the honour of being published on PB. <
+++++++
"Only a fool would write for anything but money" - Dr Johnson
> > @kle4 said:
>
> >
> > That's what it boils down to for me - people are perfectly capable of being shit or great whether they are parents or not. Even if one thinks it more likely that one will have the necessary qualities as a result of being a parent since it is demonstrably not essential or automatic as a result of being a parent, I think it unnecessary to speculate as to that being the reason or even a reason for May being crap. <
>
> +++++
>
> Fair enough. I do see how my remarks could appear nasty, even inhumane. Which is why they were heavily caveated.
>
> But put it this way: if T May was the mother of four boisterous kids - from a giggly infant to reasonably adjusted teens, with a bit of rebellion - then, 1. it would make her more relatable (and popular), 2, it would show she's a decent mother, and that does mean something (however unfairly)
>
> On the other hand, recent prime ministers have all had kids, from Blair to Brown to Cameron, and they've all been pretty disastrous, so maybe this is truly meaningless (beyond the ability to attract votes as an ordinary family man or woman)
>
Heath was childless and had a very similar personality to May.
Merkel and Sturgeon and Modi are also childless but it does not seem to have held them back, though Julia Gillard in Australia had some very cruel attacks because of her lack of children and hairdresser boyfriend
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > No Ruth?
>
> Dealt with last year:
>
> http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/17/ruthless-people-the-conservatives-lose-a-leadership-contender/
- “... a further awkward question, however: if she is not up to being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, why does she think she is up to being Scotland’s First Minister? She had better have a clear answer.“
Still waiting on that front.
> Very serious indeed, certainly about jelly babies
>
She seems to like the idea of biting off their heads.
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127952449942294528
A.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Andrea Leadson comes out of Alastair's rundown quite well?
> >
> >
> > "Andrea Leadsom – one of a very select group of politicians whose reputation has been enhanced in this government. If she runs she should be a very serious candidate indeed. (27/1)"
>
> Very serious indeed, certainly about jelly babies
>
> https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127922320813776896?s=20
Not the first candidate to spring to mind when talking about baby eating Tories!