Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson moves to a 69% chance in the LD leadership betting following Layla Moran’s withdrawal from the race
After PB’s overnight guest slot on the LD leadership there’s been a big move in that the heavily tipped Oxford West & Abingdon MP, Layla Moran, has withdrawn from the race.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.
Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.
> De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.
Yes, I want to see hustings and a contest.
Jo Swinson is OK, but I do like Lamb
Good afternoon, everyone.
Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).
I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.
I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).
Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.
"I've been a Socialist all my life."
How do you vote?
"Tory".
There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
> Why wouldn’t you have an election? Is it still the case that non members can stand?
Non MPs you mean?
No
> I've seen a few clips of Jo and I think she's really good.
>
> Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.
>
> Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.
>
Well up to a point, Lord Copper. Didn't do Gordon Brown much good....
Lost the SNP majority at Holyrood but does have nearly six times as many MPs than when she was first elected.
Gordon Brown's coronation was brilliant, without it we would have never had this brilliant article, which I believe has never been posted on PB.
‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
https://twitter.com/argusicraig/status/1128239754238156800?s=21
"I can't say the word c**t but Mark Reckless is a f**king c**t who deserves a red hot poker up his arse."
> Well, quite, Mr. Divvie.
>
> Good afternoon, everyone.
>
> Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).
>
> I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.
>
> I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).
>
> Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.
Not 'shoe - in'.
Put a sock in it.
> I've seen a few clips of Jo and I think she's really good.
>
> Love that she took her baby into the HoC chamber.
>
> Nice soft Scottish burr too ... in the media age these things matter.
>
She came over as very lightweight on the BBC Local Election results programme.
> Person on WATO.
> "I've been a Socialist all my life."
> How do you vote?
> "Tory".
> There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
There are millions - many of those who voted for Brexit would be distinctly uncomfortable with radicalism, and yet it is a decidedly radical policy.
With over 7,000 Labour voters to squeeze in OXWAB I think it'll be fairly easy for Layla Moran to hold on.
https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1128268087441203200
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
>
> > Well, quite, Mr. Divvie.
>
> >
>
> > Good afternoon, everyone.
>
> >
>
> > Didn't enjoy the great string of luck I had with the last Lib Dem leadership contest, but this looks like a shoo-in (shoe-in? I can never remember).
>
> >
>
> > I know we have some gamers here, and happened to see that the entire Dragon Age Inquisition DLC bundle is cut to £5 until tomorrow (PS4, at least). That's two mostly rubbish 'spoils' sets (mounts, thrones, decor, little bit of armour) and three story DLCs.
>
> >
>
> > I remember from back when it was new, the general consensus was that The Descent was pretty cool and Jaws of Hakkon was just ok. The third one, whose name I forget, rounds out the story arc (and should've been part of the main game).
>
> >
>
> > Only a fiver, but I dislike the main story in DLC approach so not sure whether I'll bother. Maybe. Might be the last Dragon Age stuff I get seeing as 4 appears to be contaminated with Anthem disease.
>
>
>
> Not 'shoe - in'.
>
> Put a sock in it.
>
> You've got no sole!
Time to give May the boot.
Edit: And I see Reckless is flip-flopping between parties again.
> On local elections night she was sitting next to Barry Gardiner and EVERYONE is going to look and sound good in comparison.
I disagree - thought she was poor compared with both Gardiner and Cleverly. First time I have really looked at her.
> De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.
Much as I criticise Blair for many reasons, his leadership of Labour was enjoyed by many for many years, and he didn't face notably strong opposition when he was elected leader in 1994.
But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
Hmmmm.
> Person on WATO.
> "I've been a Socialist all my life."
> How do you vote?
> "Tory".
> There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
Some people are so 'thick'!
> "I can't say the word c**t but Mark Reckless is a f**king c**t who deserves a red hot poker up his arse."
On the fence as ever
> It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
> On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
>
> But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
>
> Hmmmm.
Nanny.
EDIT: To be fair, in 2015 she was probably thinking about child number 2 coming along.
> Person on WATO.
> "I've been a Socialist all my life."
> How do you vote?
> "Tory".
> There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
My grandfather read Marx and Mao, and gave me a copy of the latter saying "there is a lot of sense in here", but always voted Conservative.
*Some reason being trying to destabilise the 2014 Tory conference.
> De facto coronations haven't worked out particularly well in UK politics.
>
> Been downhill for the SNP ever since Sturgeon was elected unopposed.
>
> Lost the SNP majority at Holyrood but does have nearly six times as many MPs than when she was first elected.
>
> Gordon Brown's coronation was brilliant, without it we would have never had this brilliant article, which I believe has never been posted on PB.
>
> ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority’
>
> https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Well, I did say UK.
It's been downhill for the UK and the Tories since Tessy was elected (in the end) unopposed.
> On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
>
> But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
>
> Hmmmm.
After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
> >
> > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
> >
> > Hmmmm.
>
> After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!
The management skills acquired in looking after two young children will greatly exceed any she may need as head of the LibDems.
> https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1128283623587753984
If that is a Lab/Con deal it would be murder for Labour and gross bodily harm for the Conservatives.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Person on WATO.
> > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
> > How do you vote?
> > "Tory".
> > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
>
> Some people are so 'thick'!
Not implying they are thick. Merely disingenuous. I find it rather tiresome that they seem to think their opinion carries special insight simply because they voted for Wilson or Blair once or twice.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
> >
> > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
> >
> > Hmmmm.
>
> After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!
Dealing with toddlers is ideal training for leading a political party.
** looks round to see if @Charles is lurking **
Even better for dealing with investment bankers.
Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1128286569515892736
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > > @SandyRentool said:
>
> > > On topic, Swinson didn't want to run for the leadership in 2015 because she had a young child.
>
> > >
>
> > > But now, with 2 young children, she is up for it.
>
> > >
>
> > > Hmmmm.
>
> >
>
> > After 4 years of the little tykes, it is time to escape!
>
>
>
> Dealing with toddlers is ideal training for leading a political party.
>
>
>
> ** looks round to see if @Charles is lurking **
>
>
>
> Even better for dealing with investment bankers.
>
> There's a great analogy to be made about investment bankers and changing nappies.
I know. I've used it in my talks to them!
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1128286597919715331
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1128286569515892736
Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
> "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
>
> Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1128286597919715331
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1128286569515892736
>
> Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
Brexit Party wins on 23rd. PM says "voters have sent the clearest possible message to vote for my deal."
Tory Party more emboldened to vote against. No one can force her out, mostly cos there is no agreement on a successor.
And on and on we go, arguing round in circles till October.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1128286597919715331
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1128286569515892736
> >
> > Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
>
> Brexit Party wins on 23rd. PM says "voters have sent the clearest possible message to vote for my deal."
> Tory Party more emboldened to vote against. No one can force her out, mostly cos there is no agreement on a successor.
> And on and on we go, arguing round in circles till October.
Brexit is like that M C Escher stair drawing, isn't it?
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Person on WATO.
> > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
> > How do you vote?
> > "Tory".
> > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
>
> Some people are so 'thick'!
Good luck getting ex-Labour voters to come back, if that's your attitude.
> FPT:
>
> > It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
>
> I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
>
> She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
Yes, but at least once (Trump) the rumours were the story.
> > @Tissue_Price said:
> > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
> >
> > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
>
> Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
> Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
With Tories tied to the sinking ship of Brexit, Layla is safe in Oxford West for the foreseeable, and many seats in the region around become in play for the LibDems.
It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
> https://twitter.com/RachBradleyITV/status/1128291646779555841
>
>
>
> It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
>
> It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
I don't want to sound rude. But the crazy thing is to believe that May has - or has ever had - any sort of strategy.
Unless you consider repeating the same thing over and over again to be a strategy.
>
> It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
>
> It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
I'm sure there will be lots of attempted action in response to the European election results. But people will act in contrary directions and so the sum effect may cancel out to something close to zero.
If May were a decent communicator she could be explaining the compromises she felt that she had to make, putting the no-dealers on the defensive to explain how they would protect the Union and rallying public support for leaving the EU with her deal.
Instead, nothing. We have a national election in nine days time and the PM has nothing to say to the electorate.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > https://twitter.com/RachBradleyITV/status/1128291646779555841
> >
> >
> >
> > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
> >
> > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
>
> I don't want to sound rude. But the crazy thing is to believe that May has - or has ever had - any sort of strategy.
>
> Unless you consider repeating the same thing over and over again to be a strategy.
Although, it is possible that she believes it to be her strategy. That it is holed below the waterline by plainly evident logical flaws, and by the political arithmetic, has never stopped her before.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > FPT:
> >
> > > It should be noted in passing that Plato (RIP) of this parish managed to get herself banned from Twitter for acting as a Russian troll.
> >
> > I didn't know that about Plato, but it doesn't surprise me. I suspected as much, if only from the sheer inanity of some of her posts.
> >
> > She did, I recall, once win the coveted Poster Of The Year title. Doesn't say much for the judgement of some of her readers. Personally I found her a PIA, because she was a problem for anybody with a serious interest in betting on politics. She was a rumour-monger, but you had to check the rumours just in case. What a waste of time.
>
> Yes, but at least once (Trump) the rumours were the story.
Plato was also one of those who would have voted to Remain but was lost by Cameron's antics.
> Not 'shoe - in'.
> Put a sock in it.
>
> You've got no sole!
>
>
> I hope that's the last pun on that theme.
>
>
>
> Your wounded pride will heel in time
I was just hoping you'd remain tongue-tied.
> > @Tissue_Price said:
> > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
> >
> > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
>
> Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
> Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
Did Layla jump? Or was she pushed by Swinson''s femilib Mafia.
> https://twitter.com/RachBradleyITV/status/1128291646779555841
>
>
>
> It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
>
> It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
If that is her strategy, then the first part is going swimmingly.
https://twitter.com/CBSThisMorning/status/1127928107279749120
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > OT hacking American votes
> > https://twitter.com/Mickeefl/status/1126565290756706304
>
> Electronic voting machines are madness in a democracy.
OT Jessop.
With your Turkish connections I wonder if you can help me. I'm looking for a song by Tarkan c1996 where the chorus sounds like '...ticerdum ticerdum ticerdum'
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1128261066654408709
In practice the Lib Dems are advancing sufficiently in Oxfordshire that I think she'll be safe whatever happens... unless the new Lib Dem administrations in the districts foul up unwinding the Local Plans and the party suffers accordingly. No pressure @Andy_Cooke
> > @Recidivist said:
> >
> > It isn't totally impossible that the May strategy is to lose big in the Euros to stun her party into action.
> >
> > It sounds crazy, but crazier things are going on.
>
> I'm sure there will be lots of attempted action in response to the European election results. But people will act in contrary directions and so the sum effect may cancel out to something close to zero.
>
> If May were a decent communicator she could be explaining the compromises she felt that she had to make, putting the no-dealers on the defensive to explain how they would protect the Union and rallying public support for leaving the EU with her deal.
>
> Instead, nothing. We have a national election in nine days time and the PM has nothing to say to the electorate.
Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.
She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.
The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.
The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.
He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".
The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation
> Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.
>
> She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.
I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?
She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.
> > @Tissue_Price said:
>
> > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
>
> >
>
> > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
>
>
>
> Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
>
> Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
>
> Interesting alternative history if Thorpe had lost. Would the Liberal resurgence in the early 1970s taken place? Would Steele become leader early? Could Heath have entered into a coalition with the Liberals in 74?
Steel only won by 550 in 1970 himself. Had Thorpe lost off the basis of a pro-Con / anti-Lib national swing, chances are Steel would have done too. Even if it were Thorpe-specific, there might have been enough tainting of the Liberal brand to doom Steel.
But Steel was only 32 in 1970: surely a more senior MP would have been elected instead? Hooson, perhaps, or Grimond returning while Steel, Pardoe and Russell gained more experience?
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1128286597919715331
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1128286569515892736
> > >
> > > Receive royal assent? It hasn't been bloody passed yet! What's going to change the 4th time around?
> >
> > Brexit Party wins on 23rd. PM says "voters have sent the clearest possible message to vote for my deal."
> > Tory Party more emboldened to vote against. No one can force her out, mostly cos there is no agreement on a successor.
> > And on and on we go, arguing round in circles till October.
>
> Brexit is like that M C Escher stair drawing, isn't it?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/28/telegraph-cartoons-march-2019/bob-cartoon-march-23/
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1128283623587753984
>
>
>
>
>
> If that is a Lab/Con deal it would be murder for Labour and gross bodily harm for the Conservatives.
>
> Not grievous?
No, you are getting confused with the Greek R&B Thug, Grivas Bo Diddely Harm.
> I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?
>
> She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.
>
> May's evasiveness is technically impressive if nothing else.
Only another two weeks.
Then things get worse.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock. Anything she says is less informative and considerably duller.
> >
> > She may as well stay silent since she has nothing to say.
>
> I'm long past expecting that she would be any good at it, but if she isn't even willing to try to persuade people, why hasn't she left Number Ten?
>
> She gives every appearance of having given up, without managing to follow through on giving up by resigning.
In a strange way I think she sees it as her duty to complete Brexit but also to prevent Boris and other no deal Brexiteers taking over
The party just need to get the WDA over the line and move on with a leadership contest
The sooner the better
> Is this the bar the Lib Dems really want to set?
>
> The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.
>
> The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.
>
> He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".
>
> The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation
That's reassuring.
On topic, I'm sure Jo Swinson should be favourite - I priced it as 4/7 Jo 5/4 Ed this morning. Tim Farron beat Norman Lamb 56.5-43.5% in the 2015 election and I think it could be a similar result this time with Jo emerging as the new leader. I'll hopefully get to hear them both at the London Hustings and decide then.
One or two other bits and pieces - had Thorpe lost in 1970, there would have been just 5 Liberal MPs - John Pardoe, Emlyn Hooson, Russell Johnston, David Steel and Jo Grimond. I doubt Grimond and Hooson would have fancied being leader. In terms of age, in 1970, Johnston was 38, Pardoe 36 and Steel 32. Theoretically, a swing big enough to unseat Thorpe might have claimed Pardoe too as it would in 1979 but Johnston had a bit more majority. Could he have taken over rather than Steel?
Oddly enough, a number of Conservatives in their memoirs spoke highly of Russell Johnston and I wonder whether he and Heath could have done a deal in 1974?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/14/germanys-afd-attacks-greta-thunberg-as-it-embraces-climate-denial
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Is this the bar the Lib Dems really want to set?
> >
> > The Lib Dems have reinstated former leader David Steel after a probe into what he knew about abuse claims against the late MP Cyril Smith.
> >
> > The peer was suspended from the party after comments he made about Smith to an independent child abuse inquiry.
> >
> > He said he had "assumed" allegations against the Rochdale MP were true, but that it was "nothing to do with me".
> >
> > The party ruled there were "no grounds for action" against Lord Steel as Smith "did not confess to any criminality".
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/14/lib-dems-clear-lord-steel-over-cyril-smith-revelation
>
> That's reassuring.
Pleased to see TSE is copying my analysis from earlier
> That's reassuring.
>
> As a matter of interest, what should the Party have done? Withdrawn the whip, expulsion? I'm genuinely curious to know what effective message the Party could have sent.
In my view, Steel should have resigned from the Party. But failing that, Steel made a staggering error of judgment which has brought the party into disrepute. If the LibDems take that view, as well, that should be grounds for expulsion. The idea they CAN'T do so is staggering.
We had swings in our favour of 16.5%, 25.0%, and 43.3% respectively in those three wards.
> In a strange way I think she sees it as her duty to complete Brexit but also to prevent Boris and other no deal Brexiteers taking over
>
> The party just need to get the WDA over the line and move on with a leadership contest
>
> The sooner the better
There comes a time when the most useful thing a person can do is to stand aside and allow other people to take over. May has seemingly given up trying to convince people to back the withdrawal agreement. It will not pass while she is PM.
It is over.
https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1128317621454213120?s=21
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > In a strange way I think she sees it as her duty to complete Brexit but also to prevent Boris and other no deal Brexiteers taking over
> >
> > The party just need to get the WDA over the line and move on with a leadership contest
> >
> > The sooner the better
>
> There comes a time when the most useful thing a person can do is to stand aside and allow other people to take over. May has seemingly given up trying to convince people to back the withdrawal agreement. It will not pass while she is PM.
>
> It is over.
It is not over by a long way but I do want TM to accept her succession contest as soon as the EU elections are over at the end of the month. As a loyal supporter of TM even I am seeking her to pass on the task
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Person on WATO.
> > > "I've been a Socialist all my life."
> > > How do you vote?
> > > "Tory".
> > > There are plenty of these folk around, believe me.
> >
> > Some people are so 'thick'!
>
> Good luck getting ex-Labour voters to come back, if that's your attitude.
There is no suggestion that he ever was a Labour voter. Just as stupid as someone describing himself as a Conservative who then reveals he votes for the Socialists!
The important message for members now - and in the future - is a clear statement that when any member, no matter how senior or junior, becomes aware of problematic behaviour they must report it, not turn a blind eye, or assume that someone else is dealing with it, that if people did this bad people can be caught or stopped sooner, that failure to do this is a breach of trust and that without trust no organisation can operate successfully.
Something like this should have been said. A missed opportunity.
> > @Tissue_Price said:
>
> > "At the general election she unseated the Conservatives incumbent by a majority of just 816 and clearly there is an element of wanting to ensure that she can get returned again."
>
> >
>
> > Being leader would be the best way to ensure that. Though it will be a tough re-gain for the Conservatives in any case.
>
>
>
> Jeremy Thorpe came very close to losing North Devon in 1970 - though it might be argued that he would have been defeated had he not been leader.
>
> Ted Heath saw his majority halved at Bexley too in 1966.
>
> Interesting alternative history if Thorpe had lost. Would the Liberal resurgence in the early 1970s taken place? Would Steele become leader early? Could Heath have entered into a coalition with the Liberals in 74?
No reason to believe that Thorpe was personally responsible for the upturn in Liberal fortunes during the 1972 - 1974 period. It would surely have happened under Steel or Pardoe.
> Be honest. Listening to May speak is like listening to the talking clock.
>
> Prides herself on being "very clear" but actually just repeats the same thing, day in, day out? Yes, I can see that.
"At the third vote, the time, sponsored by the Brexit Party, will be 1952
There's a wider question here - if you are in a political party and you hear an allegation about a fellow member that is serious but non-political in content, is it not the case that IF said member denies it, the Party can do very little. You may believe the allegation but unless you have proof (and that would imply a successful prosecution in a court) I don't see what action can be taken.
Expelling a member on the basis of unproven charges seems draconian yet the seriousness of the allegations against Smith were such that questions had to be asked. If we have a judicial system which says "innocent until proven guilty" should Parties expel members purely on the basis of allegation?
I'm not defending Smith or Steel - the party's behaviour in this matter was reprehensible and I in no way condone it but I'm forced to wonder how it is within parties - if you are a good party member, to what extent does what you do outside the Party matter? Yes, if there is a proven allegation in court, a Party can and should (and I suspect does) take action but where there is only the allegation, what then?