> If the Brexit shambles hasn’t changed your mind, you do not have much of a mind to change.
>
> At least the insults haven't changed from 2016!!
In Brexitland Utopia, no one is allowed to change their mind, unless it is El Duce. The leader of the Faragist Party changed his mind on immigration recently. Apparently it is no longer a big issue, because he says so. Norway model was once trumped by El Duce as a good alternative to our existing membership of the EU. He changed his mind, but this was the will-o-the-people, as El Duce IS the will-o-the-people. Then he shot his cat.
> @isam said: > > @isam > > There are many words to quote at Farage that he has said, and some he is alleged to have said and has only half heartedly denied. There is much ammunition to show him up for the angry unpleasant and egotistical man he is. A woman will be best to expose this. Friend of misogynist Trump, admirer of despotic Putin, sympathetic visitor of alleged rapist Julian Assange. And lots lots more. > > That trick has been tried endlessly, as recently as yesterday, and never works. Votes cast against Farage by people that really, really, really hate him are still only counted once
When El Duce takes his followers to the sunlit uplands of Brexitopia there will be no need for such things as votes, as the people will have spoken, and they should never be allowed to speak again. There Will shall be preserved in aspic, in the same way as Jacob Rees Mogg's views have not moved since he was told what to believe in by his Grandpapa.
> There are many words to quote at Farage that he has said, and some he is alleged to have said and has only half heartedly denied. There is much ammunition to show him up for the angry unpleasant and egotistical man he is. A woman will be best to expose this. Friend of misogynist Trump, admirer of despotic Putin, sympathetic visitor of alleged rapist Julian Assange. And lots lots more.
>
> That trick has been tried endlessly, as recently as yesterday, and never works. Votes cast against Farage by people that really, really, really hate him are still only counted once
When El Duce takes his followers to the sunlit uplands of Brexitopia there will be no need for such things as votes, as the people will have spoken, and they should never be allowed to speak again. There Will shall be preserved in aspic, in the same way as Jacob Rees Mogg's views have not moved since he was told what to believe in by his Grandpapa.
> @Tissue_Price said: > > @Tissue_Price said: > > > @Quincel, yes. It's more likely to be a [still theoretical!] problem if somehow one of them got elected and then stood down, and then others didn't want to take up the spot. > > > > Cheers. Wonder if it's ever happened in any D'Hondt election? I don't have the time to check. > > > > Well I do, but I want to pretend I have better things to do. > > It took some finding, and this is technically an independent (i.e. a list of one): > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_European_Parliament_election_in_Estonia
I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about? Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
There are many words to quote at Farage that he has said, and some he is alleged to have said and has only half heartedly denied. There is much ammunition to show him up for the angry unpleasant and egotistical man he is. A woman will be best to expose this. Friend of misogynist Trump, admirer of despotic Putin, sympathetic visitor of alleged rapist Julian Assange. And lots lots more.
That trick has been tried endlessly, as recently as yesterday, and never works. Votes cast against Farage by people that really, really, really hate him are still only counted once
Farage is a bully and a chicken. No way the odious clown will agree to the challenge.
He'll probably say yes. (a) it won't happen, given timescales and other parties to consider; (b) Farage's message is very simple and he's used to making it in hostile conditions; (c) the example of Mrs May ducking the debates in 2017 is a reminder to leaders that the conventional wisdom isn't always right.
Where's @Scott_P to tell us he wont be in the debates?!
> @IanB2 said: > > @kinabalu said: > > Even among 18 -24 year olds, TBP scores 20%. > > > > Gosh if you are there at 21 and one believes the tendency is to become more reactionary with age the mind boggles at where you will likely end up at 65. Certainly not a member of the Liberal Democrats. > > Another false assumption? At that age a fair few voters will have anarchist temptations that might lead them to vote for the grit in politics' vaseline, which a decade later they have left behind for a calmer time with the LibDems.
Yes, I can well imagine that.
(I read that as 'antichrist' temptations at first. Which would still make sense, I suppose, come to think of it.)
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @isam > > > > > > There are many words to quote at Farage that he has said, and some he is alleged to have said and has only half heartedly denied. There is much ammunition to show him up for the angry unpleasant and egotistical man he is. A woman will be best to expose this. Friend of misogynist Trump, admirer of despotic Putin, sympathetic visitor of alleged rapist Julian Assange. And lots lots more. > > > > > > That trick has been tried endlessly, as recently as yesterday, and never works. Votes cast against Farage by people that really, really, really hate him are still only counted once > > > > When El Duce takes his followers to the sunlit uplands of Brexitopia there will be no need for such things as votes, as the people will have spoken, and they should never be allowed to speak again. There Will shall be preserved in aspic, in the same way as Jacob Rees Mogg's views have not moved since he was told what to believe in by his Grandpapa. > > I refer to my previous comment
and it is still as inane, though much less entertaining than Anne Widdecombe doing the tango.
> @Cookie said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127969177178910722 > > > > > > > > That will be great. I bet the soft wet clown Nigel will chicken out. 🐓 > > I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about? > Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect.
> > That will be great. I bet the soft wet clown Nigel will chicken out. 🐓
>
> I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about?
> Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
> The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect.
If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable.
When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame
> @isam said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise > > > > He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect. > > If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable. > > When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame
I don't think it viable to have a debate without including multiple other parties, and establish some ground rules (just MEP candidates?).
Can't see it happening myself.
Anyone done the sums to see how the London poll works out under Dehondt?
The Brexit Party are deliberately not publishing any manifesto etc. until *after* the EU elections. They don't want people to have any specific reason to vote for them, just a general anger about how Brexit's going.
Why would they take part in a TV debate and risk having to actually flesh out any sort of policies or positions under pressure from a debate host or rival?
So Labours desperate ploy now is to say vote for us as we are the only ones who can deliver a referendum .
Do they think us Labour Remainers are going to fall for this crap anymore .The only way to get Labour to stop their fence sitting is to show them what happens when you piss off the huge majority of Labour voters who want a second vote .
A vote for Labour is a vote for Barry Gardiner and the other Tory Brexit enablers.
The residual Tories will be those backing May's Shit Deal.
If the past three years have proved nothing else it is that May's deal is not shit.
Shittiness is relative. May's Deal (which pace Voltaire is neither a deal nor May's, but never mind) is definitively shit. The only good thing to say for it is that it might be LESS shit than some alternatives. Problem is, Remainers don't see a reason for things getting shittier than they are now; Leavers don't think they voted for shit, even if they actually did.
> > > The kippers got very high percentages in Euro elections in the past. They soon enough faded to complete irrelevancy.
> > >
> > > I think people can be forgiven for not getting too sweaty about the latest rightwing flash in the pan.
> >
> > You are having a laugh, presumably?
>
> I agree that's a rather simplistic calculation.
>
> *BUT* I think there's undoubtedly a chunk of TBP's share which can be identified as the Screw You vote.
>
> I'm sure many people ARE richly pissed off at the failure to deliver Brexit, and I'm sure they'll turn out for Nigel.
>
> But I wonder if there are more who, for example, voted Lab in 2017.. who'll turn to TBP just to give Con & Lab a good kicking because it's Thursday.
>
>
Even if the Brexit Party does fade into nothing, I think it's highly unlikely that they'll do so without leaving a permanent mark.
UKIP is more-or-less a spent force now, and has been for some years but while their 'flash in the pan' lasted only five years or so (2012-17, plus a flash-forward in 2009), their influence in that time delivered a Brexit referendum and contributed significantly to Leave winning (though was far from the only reason Leave won).
Certainly, the Brexit party are well-placed to pick up protest votes in secondary elections like the EP, locals and by-elections; they'll struggle to match these shares in a GE, where the NHS, economy and like issues are at stake.
Distinguishing between TBP and UKIP is dancing on the head of a pin, though. Even the names of both of them give the clue: they mean exactly the same thing. TBP is just UKIP 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint, a rebranding.. and the same leader.
The reason it’s got traction is because old UKIP still existing effectively detoxes TBP by having something to its right, its media operation has been very savvy and the two main parties have screwed Brexit up. So people don’t care.
Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories.
Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
> @Cookie said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127969177178910722 > > > > > > > > That will be great. I bet the soft wet clown Nigel will chicken out. 🐓 > > I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about? > Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories.
Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
> @Foxy said: > > @isam said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > > > > > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise > > > > > > > > He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect. > > > > If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable. > > > > When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame > > I don't think it viable to have a debate without including multiple other parties, and establish some ground rules (just MEP candidates?). > > Can't see it happening myself. > > Anyone done the sums to see how the London poll works out under
Two each Lab/Bx/LibDem, one each Con/Green.
I linked to a calculation earlier in the thread (3pm ish?)
LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent.
I think that you will find that the PM at the time was a certain D Cameron and shortly thereafter a Mrs T May. It was the latter's job to deliver Brexit and she has failed, partly because of muppets like JRM.
Yes and much of it foreseeable.
Odd, I don't remember JRM being part of the negotiations.
> @Hobson said: > "The problem for strong leavers..." > A lot of 'strong leavers' - i.e. those whose first preference is WTO terms - would rather remain in the EU than leave on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. This has been a big issue with the WA all along: why back the deal when no-deal and remain are both superior options?
In what earthly way is the no-deal car crash better than the WA?
> @Streeter said: > Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories. > > > > Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital > > Unreadable. Try some punctuation.
Not remotely unreadable, 2 paragraphs neither longer than 3 sentences only unreadable by you determined to start an argument for its own sake
> > That will worry him and his spin doctors... how to not come across like the Trump like misogynist he most probably is. My guess is he will find an excuse to decline, but then that might hurt his ego. Good move by Heidi Allen at last!
>
>
>
> Yes, good move. Ch UK are at the bottom of the polls and Farage is at the top. She has nothing to lose and he has a lot to lose.
>
> All he has to do is quote her own words back at her
The Brexit Party are deliberately not publishing any manifesto etc. until *after* the EU elections. They don't want people to have any specific reason to vote for them, just a general anger about how Brexit's going.
Why would they take part in a TV debate and risk having to actually flesh out any sort of policies or positions under pressure from a debate host or rival?
It’s a clever move.
They’ve made themselves a giant protest vessel and given their enemies nothing to attack, except pretty desperate ones trying to find a meme about funding and insinuating Farage is a bit of a Nazi.
Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes'
LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent.
Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes'
Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes'
> Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories.
>
>
>
> Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
>
> Unreadable. Try some punctuation.
Not remotely unreadable, 2 paragraphs neither longer than 3 sentences only unreadable by you determined to start an argument for its own sake
He can’t even get the basics right himself, and clearly isn’t very bright.
> @houndtang said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @logical_song said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1127968128992813056 > > > > > > > > Given we vote a week on Thursday I doubt there's time to get a debate sorted out (venues, TV coverage etc) > > > > > > > > Not happening. > > > > > > ... mainly because Farage won't want it. > > > > ..and he is a bully and his aids know it. He would come out of it very badly. I hope it does happen, but he will be, in the words of Mrs T, frit. It would be the only reason I would ever watch the narcissistic little fascist. > > Why would leader of a party on 30% want to give publicity to leader of a party on 3%?
The Broadcasters would have to include the other parties. As a minor party leader, there would be no reasonable justification for including Heidi Allen at all!
Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> @Foxy said: > > @isam said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > > > > > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise > > > > > > > > He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect. > > > > If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable. > > > > When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame > > I don't think it viable to have a debate without including multiple other parties, and establish some ground rules (just MEP candidates?). > > Can't see it happening myself. > > Anyone done the sums to see how the London poll works out under Dehondt?
> > > > Given we vote a week on Thursday I doubt there's time to get a debate sorted out (venues, TV coverage etc)
> > > >
> > > > Not happening.
> > >
> > > ... mainly because Farage won't want it.
> >
> > ..and he is a bully and his aids know it. He would come out of it very badly. I hope it does happen, but he will be, in the words of Mrs T, frit. It would be the only reason I would ever watch the narcissistic little fascist.
>
> Why would leader of a party on 30% want to give publicity to leader of a party on 3%?
The Broadcasters would have to include the other parties. As a minor party leader, there would be no reasonable justification for including Heidi Allen at all!
> @Casino_Royale said: > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes' > > > > https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html > > Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes' > > > > https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html > > Very weird link asking me to take an “oath” there. > > What’s that about? I smell a rat.
James 5:12, KJV: "But above all things, my brethren, swear not, neither by heaven, neither by the earth, neither by any other oath: but let your yea be yea; and your nay, nay; lest ye fall into condemnation."
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Streeter said: > > > Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories. > > > > > > > > > > > > Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital > > > > > > Unreadable. Try some punctuation. > > > > Not remotely unreadable, 2 paragraphs neither longer than 3 sentences only unreadable by you determined to start an argument for its own sake > > He can’t even get the basics right himself, and clearly isn’t very bright. > > I wouldn’t worry.
Thankyou, not what I wanted after a long day at work and posting a handful of what I thought were factual and uncontentious posts
> > > The kippers got very high percentages in Euro elections in the past. They soon enough faded to complete irrelevancy.
> > >
> > > I think people can be forgiven for not getting too sweaty about the latest rightwing flash in the pan.
> >
> > You are having a laugh, presumably?
>
> I agree that's a rather simplistic calculation.
>
> *BUT* I think there's undoubtedly a chunk of TBP's share which can be identified as the Screw You vote.
>
> I'm sure many people ARE richly pissed off at the failure to deliver Brexit, and I'm sure they'll turn out for Nigel.
>
> But I wonder if there are more who, for example, voted Lab in 2017.. who'll turn to TBP just to give Con & Lab a good kicking because it's Thursday.
>
>
Even if the Brexit Party does fade into nothing, I think it's highly unlikely that they'll do so without leaving a permanent mark.
UKIP is more-or-less a spent force now, and has been for some years but while their 'flash in the pan' lasted only five years or so (2012-17, plus a flash-forward in 2009), their influence in that time delivered a Brexit referendum and contributed significantly to Leave winning (though was far from the only reason Leave won).
Certainly, the Brexit party are well-placed to pick up protest votes in secondary elections like the EP, locals and by-elections; they'll struggle to match these shares in a GE, where the NHS, economy and like issues are at stake.
Distinguishing between TBP and UKIP is dancing on the head of a pin, though. Even the names of both of them give the clue: they mean exactly the same thing. TBP is just UKIP 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint, a rebranding.. and the same leader.
The reason it’s got traction is because old UKIP still existing effectively detoxes TBP by having something to its right, its media operation has been very savvy and the two main parties have screwed Brexit up. So people don’t care.
People aren't voting for a government, Brexit isn't going to win a GE. But people also won't vote for something with a fascist tinge. Farage's operation makes good sense.
> @Casino_Royale said: > @Streeter SM + CU + FOM *does not* equal Norway. > > Why do so many ultra Remainers not understand either the EU or the arrangements of the nations outside of it?
It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was:
SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ*
And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of:
SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ
* It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR.
> @Hobson said: > "The problem for strong leavers..." > A lot of 'strong leavers' - i.e. those whose first preference is WTO terms - would rather remain in the EU than leave on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. This has been a big issue with the WA all along: why back the deal when no-deal and remain are both superior options?
-------------------
Except there are not that many strong leavers who think that in Parliament, since even the majority of the ERG, who thought and continue to think the WA is crap, voted for it in the end. Not all, certainly, but it turned out a lot of Brexiteers who said or implied remaining was better than the WA did not believe what they were saying.
> Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
>
> I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
>
> I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
>
> So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
>
> Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
Why would they (and why would they be allowed to) blow it up for everyone when the EU27 knows that this has a natural endpoint in less than 3 years?
It’s easier for all sides to can kick. That is the path of least resistance.
> @Streeter SM + CU + FOM *does not* equal Norway.
>
> Why do so many ultra Remainers not understand either the EU or the arrangements of the nations outside of it?
It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was:
SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ*
And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of:
SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ
* It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR.
Don’t. It’s too depressing.
It has, however, demonstrated to me just how important the art of politics (small p) and political salesmanship in any aspect of Politics (big P) is and what happens when you’re totally incompetent at any of it, regardless of the merits of what you’ve achieved.
> @Foxy said: > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. -----------------------
We can hope, since it is not helping us or them to piss about so much, but as CasinoRoyale notes it is the easiest option. Same reason we are still pissing about, it is avoids difficult choices, pretends to keep all options open, and something else might come up.
> > > The kippers got very high percentages in Euro elections in the past. They soon enough faded to complete irrelevancy.
> > >
> > > I think people can be forgiven for not getting too sweaty about the latest rightwing flash in the pan.
> >
> > You are having a laugh, presumably?
>
> I agree that's a rather simplistic calculation.
>
> *BUT* I think there's undoubtedly a chunk of TBP's share which can be identified as the Screw You vote.
>
> I'm sure many people ARE richly pissed off at the failure to deliver Brexit, and I'm sure they'll turn out for Nigel.
>
> But I wonder if there are more who, for example, voted Lab in 2017.. who'll turn to TBP just to give Con & Lab a good kicking because it's Thursday.
>
>
Even if the Brexit Party does fade into nothing, I think it's highly unlikely that they'll do so without leaving a permanent mark.
UKIP ).
Cert.
Distinguishing between TBP and UKIP is dancing on the head of a pin, though. Even the names of both of them give the clue: they mean exactly the same thing. TBP is just UKIP 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint, a rebranding.. and the same leader.
The reason it’s got traction is because old UKIP still existing effectively detoxes TBP by having something to its right, its media operation has been very savvy and the two main parties have screwed Brexit up. So people don’t care.
People aren't voting for a government, Brexit isn't going to win a GE. But people also won't vote for something with a fascist tinge. Farage's operation makes good sense.
Farage so far has managed to share the limelight in TBP.
Will his ego hold all the way to polling day? Or will he simply find the supply simply too good not to get high upon?
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent. > > > > https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/theatre/rose-theatre-kingston-closing-council-funding-sir-peter-hall-a4140701.html0 > > > > Who says Tories are philistine and liberals all luvvies? > > Link did not work. However, if their rent was low, and their debt was written off, surely they ought to have been able to stand on their own feet?
The theatre chairman said 'There is no simple model by means of which income from ticket sales or fundraising could simply be 'turned up' or the costs 'turned down' to compensate for the withdrawal of council support. If there were, we would have done it already'
> @Foxy said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was:
SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ*
And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of:
SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ
* It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR.
The SM (goods) part of the backstop is only for Northern Ireland, and the text of the withdrawal agreement is very clear that goods placed on the market originating from Northern Ireland should have a separate UK(NI) designation.
Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
Would you consider yourself part of that loyal core vote given that you voted against your party leader in the last referendum?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke. > > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
But would they keep leading the polls all the way to a GE in 2022?
> @Casino_Royale said: > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
I've thought and expected similar for a while, but I keep being surprised by how stubbornly May resists it even though it's probably her least worst option.
So it would probably need a new PM, someone who is similar in thought to May in terms of favouring the existing deal and working with Labour, but more open to the second referendum idea in order to make some sort of Brexit progress, and I'm not sure who in the Conservative party would be that person as most of the alternatives are likely to want to go either no-deal or re-negotiate type routes.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
Yes. I argued the same on here the other day. The only way the UK will leave the EU in the lifetime of this parliament is if the EU refuse further extensions of A50. Which is possible but not likely. There will not be a deal between Labour and the Tories. And an early election seems improbable so nothing will change until 2022 at the earliest.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > > > > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke. > > > > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year > > But would they keep leading the polls all the way to a GE in 2022?
Quite possibly yes, once the SNP took the lead in Scotland it never looked back.
It would take finally delivering Brexit to push Farage back
> @HYUFD said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke. > > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
If no extension is given the government would be forced to revoke, even though it would destroy the Tory party.
I agree that the result could well be the Brexit Party leading in the polls for a while.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent. > > > > > > > > https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/theatre/rose-theatre-kingston-closing-council-funding-sir-peter-hall-a4140701.html0 > > > > > > > > Who says Tories are philistine and liberals all luvvies? > > > > Link did not work. However, if their rent was low, and their debt was written off, surely they ought to have been able to stand on their own feet? > > Link here without the 0 at the end should work. > > https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html. > > The theatre chairman said 'There is no simple model by means of which income from ticket sales or fundraising could simply be 'turned up' or the costs 'turned down' to compensate for the withdrawal of council support. If there were, we would have done it already'
Councils aren't made of money. In fact, a diminishing proportion of our taxes are going to local government to finance this sort of thing. What are the options? Put up council tax? Unpopular and limited. Reallocate resources? Where from - social care and education?
> @Barnesian said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > > > > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke. > > > > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year > > If no extension is given the government would be forced to revoke, even though it would destroy the Tory party. > > I agree that the result could well be the Brexit Party leading in the polls for a while.
Revoke would split the Tories, perhaps fatally with the bulk of Tory members and Tory 2017 voters going to the Brexit Party but would also see the Brexit Party surge in Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales
Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
Would you consider yourself part of that loyal core vote given that you voted against your party leader in the last referendum?
I will vote for a Deal that takes us out of the EU.
Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories.
Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
Unreadable. Try some punctuation.
He's just missed one comma after 'expense' (a comma that is not too difficult to infer) and the final full stop after 'capital'.
On the other hand he has correctly used two apostrophes, which is above par for PB imo.
> @kle4 said: > > @Foxy said: > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > ----------------------- > > We can hope, since it is not helping us or them to piss about so much, but as CasinoRoyale notes it is the easiest option. Same reason we are still pissing about, it is avoids difficult choices, pretends to keep all options open, and something else might come up. >
Of course, our sending 30 stroppy Brexiter MEPs to Brussels won't improve the mood. I'm sure a lot of people in other EU states don't think we deserve to be members of the club.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Harris_Tweed said: > > > > @david_herdson said: > > > > > @_Anazina_ said: > > > > > Lots of Brexit Party supporters on PB. > > > > > > > > > > The kippers got very high percentages in Euro elections in the past. They soon enough faded to complete irrelevancy. > > > > > > > > > > I think people can be forgiven for not getting too sweaty about the latest rightwing flash in the pan. > > > > > > > > You are having a laugh, presumably? > > > > > > I agree that's a rather simplistic calculation. > > > > > > *BUT* I think there's undoubtedly a chunk of TBP's share which can be identified as the Screw You vote. > > > > > > I'm sure many people ARE richly pissed off at the failure to deliver Brexit, and I'm sure they'll turn out for Nigel. > > > > > > But I wonder if there are more who, for example, voted Lab in 2017.. who'll turn to TBP just to give Con & Lab a good kicking because it's Thursday. > > > > > > > > > > Even if the Brexit Party does fade into nothing, I think it's highly unlikely that they'll do so without leaving a permanent mark. > > > > UKIP ). > > > > Cert. > > Distinguishing between TBP and UKIP is dancing on the head of a pin, though. Even the names of both of them give the clue: they mean exactly the same thing. TBP is just UKIP 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint, a rebranding.. and the same leader. > > The reason it’s got traction is because old UKIP still existing effectively detoxes TBP by having something to its right, its media operation has been very savvy and the two main parties have screwed Brexit up. So people don’t care. > > People aren't voting for a government, Brexit isn't going to win a GE. But people also won't vote for something with a fascist tinge. Farage's operation makes good sense. > > Farage so far has managed to share the limelight in TBP. > > Will his ego hold all the way to polling day? > Or will he simply find the supply simply too good not to get high upon?
> @williamglenn said: > It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was: > > SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ* > > And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of: > > SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ > > * It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR. > > The SM (goods) part of the backstop is only for Northern Ireland, and the text of the withdrawal agreement is very clear that goods placed on the market originating from Northern Ireland should have a separate UK(NI) designation.
Have you actually read the text of the withdrawal agreement? I ask this, because the backstop, as it is currently written, has the UK bound by EU product standards for goods, and has zero barriers for trade in goods between the UK and the EU.
Indeed, some of the paragraphs appear to have been lifted directly from the EU-Switzerland "Agreement on Customs Facilitation and Security of 2009". The only major difference being that we remain - for disputes regarding single market goods rules - under the jurisdiction of the ECJ rather than having a bespoke arrangement
So, if there are zero regulatory or tariff barriers under the backstop arrangement, and the ECJ continues to enforce single market in goods compliance, <i>in what way are we not in the Single Market for Goods?</i>
> @Benpointer said: > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of: > > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP) > Labour 12 (-8) > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11) > Greens 6 (+3) > Conservatives 5 (-14) > SNP 3 (+1) > CUK 1 (+1) > > * compared to 2014 outcome. > > So... given Farage is claiming the main parties are anti-Brexit, that's 39 seats for anti-Brexit parties and only 31 for pro-Brexit parties. > > Sounds about right.
Hard Brexit 31 Remain (UK and EU) 19 Customs Union Brexit 12 May's Brexit 5 Leave the UK/Remain EU 3
> @Barnesian said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory). > > > > > > > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either. > > > > > > > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it. > > > > > > > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal. > > > > > > > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way. > > > > > > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension. > > > > > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke. > > > > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year > > If no extension is given the government would be forced to revoke, even though it would destroy the Tory party. > > I agree that the result could well be the Brexit Party leading in the polls for a while.
One power that parliament still holds is the timing of a general election. If the Faragists move to 30%+ in Westminster polling, there's no way that parliament will vote to bring the government down and force a general election.
One scenario is that parliament rumbles on, finally agrees to a soft Brexit deal and we leave the EU. Even though this will fall far short of what Farage, the ERG etc. want, it would then be hard to imagine a Brexit Party winning an election.
Another scenario is that we end up having a second referendum. Which ever side wins, the UK is in for considerably more pain than we've gone through already.
@rcs1000 >Have you actually read the text of the withdrawal agreement? I ask this, because the backstop, as it is currently written, has the UK bound by EU product standards for goods, and has zero barriers for trade in goods between the UK and the EU.
--------
Yes, and I suspect you skimmed over some important parts of it. It's the UK *in respect of Northern Ireland*.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of: > > > > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP) > > Labour 12 (-8) > > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11) > > Greens 6 (+3) > > Conservatives 5 (-14) > > SNP 3 (+1) > > CUK 1 (+1) > > > > * compared to 2014 outcome. > > I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in.
They get 1 apiece in London, SE, SW, East, NW, West Mids - but I stress that yougov merge regions into the North, Midlands/Wales etc.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of: > > > > > > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP) > > > Labour 12 (-8) > > > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11) > > > Greens 6 (+3) > > > Conservatives 5 (-14) > > > SNP 3 (+1) > > > CUK 1 (+1) > > > > > > * compared to 2014 outcome. > > > > I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in. > > They get 1 apiece in London, SE, SW, East, NW, West Mids - but I stress that yougov merge regions into the North, Midlands/Wales etc.
Many thanks. Still work for them to do here in Yorkshire.
I am sure that if the Brexit Party win the Euros, Peterborough and start to poll 30%, the WA will pass
Why? The Tories who backed it ar the third try probably would not as no deal would seem to have momentum, and remainers are not going to get less remainy - they've already been willing to risk no deal to get to their goal, and they can be confident parliament wont allow that.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of: > > > > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP) > > Labour 12 (-8) > > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11) > > Greens 6 (+3) > > Conservatives 5 (-14) > > SNP 3 (+1) > > CUK 1 (+1) > > > > * compared to 2014 outcome. > > I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in.
I am sure that if the Brexit Party win the Euros, Peterborough and start to poll 30%, the WA will pass
Why? The Tories who backed it ar the third try probably would not as no deal would seem to have momentum, and remainers are not going to get less remainy - they've already been willing to risk no deal to get to their goal, and they can be confident parliament wont allow that.
Remainers might get less remainy I think, when their jobs are on the line.
> @kinabalu said: > That is fascinating, Ian's breakdown of hot and cold spots in the spread of voting percentiles for London under D'Hondt. And the coldest of the cold is 8%. You simply must not poll that. Breaking upwards from that to 9% moves you from unlikely to win a seat to unlikely to NOT win a seat. So, effectively, the extra 1% is very likely to win you THE seat, expressed in the singular since 1 seat is the most that such a party can expect. This dynamic is rather like FPTP in a tight marginal where you beat the party in 2nd place by 1% and it gives you the whole of the seat. Given that the electorate who live in these marginals are deemed to have the votes which really do count, i.e. it is a desirable situation from the viewpoint of the individual voter, perhaps it follows that in mimicking this aspect of FPTP, the D'Hondt system is a strong one.
Fascinating though it was, Tissue’s challenge on a point of detail made me return to the spreadsheet whereupon I discovered an embarrassing spreadsheet error. I started to redo the analysis but had to go out to a town council meeting. I will try to post it again, as it was an interesting way to dig beneath the voting system. Having glanced at my now correct workings my initial impression is that the larger party advantage is indeed more significant than my earlier flawed work suggested. My apologies for misleading everyone by posting some overhasty work.
It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was:
SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ*
And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of:
SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ
* It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR.
You make it sound so neat: the loss of influence over the things that matter to us, along with year after dreary year of negotiations to retain something very similar to the status quo.
Comments
> > @isam
>
> There are many words to quote at Farage that he has said, and some he is alleged to have said and has only half heartedly denied. There is much ammunition to show him up for the angry unpleasant and egotistical man he is. A woman will be best to expose this. Friend of misogynist Trump, admirer of despotic Putin, sympathetic visitor of alleged rapist Julian Assange. And lots lots more.
>
> That trick has been tried endlessly, as recently as yesterday, and never works. Votes cast against Farage by people that really, really, really hate him are still only counted once
When El Duce takes his followers to the sunlit uplands of Brexitopia there will be no need for such things as votes, as the people will have spoken, and they should never be allowed to speak again. There Will shall be preserved in aspic, in the same way as Jacob Rees Mogg's views have not moved since he was told what to believe in by his Grandpapa.
> > @Tissue_Price said:
>
> > @Quincel, yes. It's more likely to be a [still theoretical!] problem if somehow one of them got elected and then stood down, and then others didn't want to take up the spot.
>
>
>
> Cheers. Wonder if it's ever happened in any D'Hondt election? I don't have the time to check.
>
>
>
> Well I do, but I want to pretend I have better things to do.
>
> It took some finding, and this is technically an independent (i.e. a list of one):
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_European_Parliament_election_in_Estonia
Christ! Good find.
> https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127969177178910722
>
>
>
> That will be great. I bet the soft wet clown Nigel will chicken out. 🐓
I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about?
Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > Even among 18 -24 year olds, TBP scores 20%.
> >
> > Gosh if you are there at 21 and one believes the tendency is to become more reactionary with age the mind boggles at where you will likely end up at 65. Certainly not a member of the Liberal Democrats.
>
> Another false assumption? At that age a fair few voters will have anarchist temptations that might lead them to vote for the grit in politics' vaseline, which a decade later they have left behind for a calmer time with the LibDems.
Yes, I can well imagine that.
(I read that as 'antichrist' temptations at first. Which would still make sense, I suppose, come to think of it.)
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam
>
> >
>
> > There are many words to quote at Farage that he has said, and some he is alleged to have said and has only half heartedly denied. There is much ammunition to show him up for the angry unpleasant and egotistical man he is. A woman will be best to expose this. Friend of misogynist Trump, admirer of despotic Putin, sympathetic visitor of alleged rapist Julian Assange. And lots lots more.
>
> >
>
> > That trick has been tried endlessly, as recently as yesterday, and never works. Votes cast against Farage by people that really, really, really hate him are still only counted once
>
>
>
> When El Duce takes his followers to the sunlit uplands of Brexitopia there will be no need for such things as votes, as the people will have spoken, and they should never be allowed to speak again. There Will shall be preserved in aspic, in the same way as Jacob Rees Mogg's views have not moved since he was told what to believe in by his Grandpapa.
>
> I refer to my previous comment
and it is still as inane, though much less entertaining than Anne Widdecombe doing the tango.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127969177178910722
> >
> >
> >
> > That will be great. I bet the soft wet clown Nigel will chicken out. 🐓
>
> I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about?
> Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
>
> The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect.
When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame
Even in Spain.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
>
> >
>
> > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
>
>
>
> He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect.
>
> If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable.
>
> When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame
I don't think it viable to have a debate without including multiple other parties, and establish some ground rules (just MEP candidates?).
Can't see it happening myself.
Anyone done the sums to see how the London poll works out under Dehondt?
Why would they take part in a TV debate and risk having to actually flesh out any sort of policies or positions under pressure from a debate host or rival?
Do they think us Labour Remainers are going to fall for this crap anymore .The only way to get Labour to stop their fence sitting is to show them what happens when you piss off the huge majority of Labour voters who want a second vote .
A vote for Labour is a vote for Barry Gardiner and the other Tory Brexit enablers.
Sorry Labour you had your chance and blew it.
The reason it’s got traction is because old UKIP still existing effectively detoxes TBP by having something to its right, its media operation has been very savvy and the two main parties have screwed Brexit up. So people don’t care.
Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1127969177178910722
> >
> >
> >
> > That will be great. I bet the soft wet clown Nigel will chicken out. 🐓
>
> I hold no brief for Nigel. But why would the leader of a party leading in the polls agree to debate with the leader of a party most voters have forgotten about?
> Actually, come to think of it, because it would split the Remain vote more evenly. It isn't in TBP's interest to have every remainer voting Lib Dem.
Heidi who?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-set-to-let-mps-decide-as-brexit-talks-hit-buffers-a4140791.html
> > @isam said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
> >
> >
> >
> > He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect.
> >
> > If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable.
> >
> > When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame
>
> I don't think it viable to have a debate without including multiple other parties, and establish some ground rules (just MEP candidates?).
>
> Can't see it happening myself.
>
> Anyone done the sums to see how the London poll works out under
Two each Lab/Bx/LibDem, one each Con/Green.
I linked to a calculation earlier in the thread (3pm ish?)
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1127986802936176640?s=21
Corbyn needs to go . Starmer needs to stick the boot in . Whilst the Tories have their leadership challenge , Labour need to do the same .
Corbyn and his clueless cronies can’t do simple maths . Labour are losing four times as many Remainers as Leavers .
It’s not just EU elections, Westminster polls show the same .
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1127986802936176640?s=21
Laboour MP doesn't think "Climate Change" is important?
https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/theatre/rose-theatre-kingston-closing-council-funding-sir-peter-hall-a4140701.html0
Who says Tories are philistine and liberals all luvvies?
> "The problem for strong leavers..."
> A lot of 'strong leavers' - i.e. those whose first preference is WTO terms - would rather remain in the EU than leave on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. This has been a big issue with the WA all along: why back the deal when no-deal and remain are both superior options?
In what earthly way is the no-deal car crash better than the WA?
> LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent.
>
> https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/theatre/rose-theatre-kingston-closing-council-funding-sir-peter-hall-a4140701.html0
>
> Who says Tories are philistine and liberals all luvvies?
The people who deal with central government funds distributed to councils?
> Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories.
>
>
>
> Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
>
> Unreadable. Try some punctuation.
Not remotely unreadable, 2 paragraphs neither longer than 3 sentences only unreadable by you determined to start an argument for its own sake
They’ve made themselves a giant protest vessel and given their enemies nothing to attack, except pretty desperate ones trying to find a meme about funding and insinuating Farage is a bit of a Nazi.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html
Why do so many ultra Remainers not understand either the EU or the arrangements of the nations outside of it?
What’s that about? I smell a rat.
I wouldn’t worry.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @logical_song said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1127968128992813056
> > > >
> > > > Given we vote a week on Thursday I doubt there's time to get a debate sorted out (venues, TV coverage etc)
> > > >
> > > > Not happening.
> > >
> > > ... mainly because Farage won't want it.
> >
> > ..and he is a bully and his aids know it. He would come out of it very badly. I hope it does happen, but he will be, in the words of Mrs T, frit. It would be the only reason I would ever watch the narcissistic little fascist.
>
> Why would leader of a party on 30% want to give publicity to leader of a party on 3%?
The Broadcasters would have to include the other parties. As a minor party leader, there would be no reasonable justification for including Heidi Allen at all!
I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> > @isam said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The main reason he would do it would be because his misogynistic ego would tell him it would be a walk over for him. I hope he underestimates Heidi Allen. He could be in for a surprise
> >
> >
> >
> > He might think that even if she does well, it will harm the other parties more so will add to the disruptive effect.
> >
> > If it happens it could be good fun, but why would a party that are 1000/1 to win the Elections get to debate with the 1/10 favourite? If anyone should debate one on one w Farage it should be Corbyn or Cable.
> >
> > When Farage was angling for a debate with Clegg in 2014, it made sense as it was a close race between the usurper and the establishment, but ChUK arent even in the frame
>
> I don't think it viable to have a debate without including multiple other parties, and establish some ground rules (just MEP candidates?).
>
> Can't see it happening myself.
>
> Anyone done the sums to see how the London poll works out under Dehondt?
Lab 2, LD 2, Brex 2, Con 1, Green 1.
> Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
>
> I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
>
> I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
>
> So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
>
> Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes'
>
>
>
> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html
>
> Sajid Javid's first encounter with Margaret Thatcher saw him say 'it was lovely to meet you' to her and being met by the reply 'You will protect this isle' to which he could only reply 'Yes'
>
>
>
> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html
>
> Very weird link asking me to take an “oath” there.
>
> What’s that about? I smell a rat.
James 5:12, KJV: "But above all things, my brethren, swear not, neither by heaven, neither by the earth, neither by any other oath: but let your yea be yea; and your nay, nay; lest ye fall into condemnation."
> > @Streeter said:
>
> > Interesting that while nationally there is a slight swing to Labour since the last general election due to the rise of the Brexit Party mainly at the Tories expense in London due to the rise of the LDs mainly at Labour's expense there is a slight swing to the Tories.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Yougov also has Remain ahead of May's Deal 71% to 29% in London but May's Deal ahead of No Deal 38% to 21% in the capital
>
> >
>
> > Unreadable. Try some punctuation.
>
>
>
> Not remotely unreadable, 2 paragraphs neither longer than 3 sentences only unreadable by you determined to start an argument for its own sake
>
> He can’t even get the basics right himself, and clearly isn’t very bright.
>
> I wouldn’t worry.
Thankyou, not what I wanted after a long day at work and posting a handful of what I thought were factual and uncontentious posts
> @Streeter SM + CU + FOM *does not* equal Norway.
>
> Why do so many ultra Remainers not understand either the EU or the arrangements of the nations outside of it?
It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was:
SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ*
And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of:
SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ
* It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR.
> "The problem for strong leavers..."
> A lot of 'strong leavers' - i.e. those whose first preference is WTO terms - would rather remain in the EU than leave on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement. This has been a big issue with the WA all along: why back the deal when no-deal and remain are both superior options?
-------------------
Except there are not that many strong leavers who think that in Parliament, since even the majority of the ERG, who thought and continue to think the WA is crap, voted for it in the end. Not all, certainly, but it turned out a lot of Brexiteers who said or implied remaining was better than the WA did not believe what they were saying.
It’s easier for all sides to can kick. That is the path of least resistance.
It has, however, demonstrated to me just how important the art of politics (small p) and political salesmanship in any aspect of Politics (big P) is and what happens when you’re totally incompetent at any of it, regardless of the merits of what you’ve achieved.
> Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
-----------------------
We can hope, since it is not helping us or them to piss about so much, but as CasinoRoyale notes it is the easiest option. Same reason we are still pissing about, it is avoids difficult choices, pretends to keep all options open, and something else might come up.
Will his ego hold all the way to polling day?
Or will he simply find the supply simply too good not to get high upon?
> LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent.
>
>
>
> https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/theatre/rose-theatre-kingston-closing-council-funding-sir-peter-hall-a4140701.html0
>
>
>
> Who says Tories are philistine and liberals all luvvies?
>
> Link did not work. However, if their rent was low, and their debt was written off, surely they ought to have been able to stand on their own feet?
Link here without the 0 at the end should work.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html.
The theatre chairman said 'There is no simple model by means of which income from ticket sales or fundraising could simply be 'turned up' or the costs 'turned down' to compensate for the withdrawal of council support. If there were, we would have done it already'
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> >
> > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> >
> > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> >
> > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> >
> > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
>
> Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > >
> > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > >
> > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > >
> > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > >
> > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> >
> > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
>
> Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > > >
> > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > > >
> > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > > >
> > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > > >
> > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> > >
> > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> >
> > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
>
> If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
But would they keep leading the polls all the way to a GE in 2022?
Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP)
Labour 12 (-8)
Liberal Democrats 12 (+11)
Greens 6 (+3)
Conservatives 5 (-14)
SNP 3 (+1)
CUK 1 (+1)
* compared to 2014 outcome.
> Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
>
> I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
>
> I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
>
> So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
>
> Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
I've thought and expected similar for a while, but I keep being surprised by how stubbornly May resists it even though it's probably her least worst option.
So it would probably need a new PM, someone who is similar in thought to May in terms of favouring the existing deal and working with Labour, but more open to the second referendum idea in order to make some sort of Brexit progress, and I'm not sure who in the Conservative party would be that person as most of the alternatives are likely to want to go either no-deal or re-negotiate type routes.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > >
> > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > >
> > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > >
> > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > >
> > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> >
> > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
>
> Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
Yes. I argued the same on here the other day. The only way the UK will leave the EU in the lifetime of this parliament is if the EU refuse further extensions of A50. Which is possible but not likely. There will not be a deal between Labour and the Tories. And an early election seems improbable so nothing will change until 2022 at the earliest.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > > > >
> > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > > > >
> > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > > > >
> > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > > > >
> > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> > > >
> > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> > >
> > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
> >
> > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
>
> But would they keep leading the polls all the way to a GE in 2022?
Quite possibly yes, once the SNP took the lead in Scotland it never looked back.
It would take finally delivering Brexit to push Farage back
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > > >
> > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > > >
> > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > > >
> > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > > >
> > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> > >
> > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> >
> > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
>
> If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
If no extension is given the government would be forced to revoke, even though it would destroy the Tory party.
I agree that the result could well be the Brexit Party leading in the polls for a while.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > LD leader of Kingston council strips the local Rose theatre founded by Sir Peter Hall of its annual funding and will not replace a bursary it received. The previous Tory administration wrote off the theatre's debt and reduced its rent.
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.standard.co.uk/go/london/theatre/rose-theatre-kingston-closing-council-funding-sir-peter-hall-a4140701.html0
> >
> >
> >
> > Who says Tories are philistine and liberals all luvvies?
> >
> > Link did not work. However, if their rent was low, and their debt was written off, surely they ought to have been able to stand on their own feet?
>
> Link here without the 0 at the end should work.
>
> https://uk.news.yahoo.com/londoner-brexit-party-split-over-100340727.html.
>
> The theatre chairman said 'There is no simple model by means of which income from ticket sales or fundraising could simply be 'turned up' or the costs 'turned down' to compensate for the withdrawal of council support. If there were, we would have done it already'
Councils aren't made of money. In fact, a diminishing proportion of our taxes are going to local government to finance this sort of thing. What are the options? Put up council tax? Unpopular and limited. Reallocate resources? Where from - social care and education?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > > > >
> > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > > > >
> > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > > > >
> > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > > > >
> > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> > > >
> > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> > >
> > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
> >
> > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
>
> If no extension is given the government would be forced to revoke, even though it would destroy the Tory party.
>
> I agree that the result could well be the Brexit Party leading in the polls for a while.
Revoke would split the Tories, perhaps fatally with the bulk of Tory members and Tory 2017 voters going to the Brexit Party but would also see the Brexit Party surge in Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales
On the other hand he has correctly used two apostrophes, which is above par for PB imo.
> > @Foxy said:
> > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> -----------------------
>
> We can hope, since it is not helping us or them to piss about so much, but as CasinoRoyale notes it is the easiest option. Same reason we are still pissing about, it is avoids difficult choices, pretends to keep all options open, and something else might come up.
>
Of course, our sending 30 stroppy Brexiter MEPs to Brussels won't improve the mood. I'm sure a lot of people in other EU states don't think we deserve to be members of the club.
> > @Harris_Tweed said:
>
> > > @david_herdson said:
>
> > > > @_Anazina_ said:
>
> > > > Lots of Brexit Party supporters on PB.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The kippers got very high percentages in Euro elections in the past. They soon enough faded to complete irrelevancy.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > I think people can be forgiven for not getting too sweaty about the latest rightwing flash in the pan.
>
> > >
>
> > > You are having a laugh, presumably?
>
> >
>
> > I agree that's a rather simplistic calculation.
>
> >
>
> > *BUT* I think there's undoubtedly a chunk of TBP's share which can be identified as the Screw You vote.
>
> >
>
> > I'm sure many people ARE richly pissed off at the failure to deliver Brexit, and I'm sure they'll turn out for Nigel.
>
> >
>
> > But I wonder if there are more who, for example, voted Lab in 2017.. who'll turn to TBP just to give Con & Lab a good kicking because it's Thursday.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> Even if the Brexit Party does fade into nothing, I think it's highly unlikely that they'll do so without leaving a permanent mark.
>
>
>
> UKIP ).
>
>
>
> Cert.
>
> Distinguishing between TBP and UKIP is dancing on the head of a pin, though. Even the names of both of them give the clue: they mean exactly the same thing. TBP is just UKIP 2.0 with a fresh lick of paint, a rebranding.. and the same leader.
>
> The reason it’s got traction is because old UKIP still existing effectively detoxes TBP by having something to its right, its media operation has been very savvy and the two main parties have screwed Brexit up. So people don’t care.
>
> People aren't voting for a government, Brexit isn't going to win a GE. But people also won't vote for something with a fascist tinge. Farage's operation makes good sense.
>
> Farage so far has managed to share the limelight in TBP.
>
> Will his ego hold all the way to polling day?
> Or will he simply find the supply simply too good not to get high upon?
Off-topic:
@Casino_Royale , (and other rail nuts), if you're still on you might be interested in the following:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4claek3eAw
How things change and yet remain the same ...
And that's not just a reference to the jelly babies.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1128006563921182720
>
>
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1128006563921182720
Sounds like good news for Brexiters *and* Remainers!
> https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127922320813776896
>
>
>
> Wtf is the point of that post?
To show the Tories what they could have had in 2016?
Sounds about right.
Edit: These repeated pictures of Loathsome are another reason why resolving the PB.com blockquote issue should be a priority!
> https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127922320813776896
>
>
>
> There is someone out there who needs a Doctor.
>
> And that's not just a reference to the jelly babies.
A dentist soon too I would imagine
> https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1127922320813776896?s=20
Baby eating Tory. Who'd have thunk it.
> It is of course worth mentioning that the backstop under Mrs May's deal was:
>
> SM (Goods) + CU - Fees - FoM - ECJ*
>
> And, in a sensible world, would be a good staging post to a destination of:
>
> SM (Goods) - Fees - FoM - ECJ
>
> * It's not completely free of the ECJ as it is still allowed to opine on measures related to the the single market in goods, and it would be better if the EFTA court or equivalent, was used instead. Still, it removed the 90% of the ECJ that was most objectionable. Of course, most people will still get it confused with the ECHR.
>
> The SM (goods) part of the backstop is only for Northern Ireland, and the text of the withdrawal agreement is very clear that goods placed on the market originating from Northern Ireland should have a separate UK(NI) designation.
Have you actually read the text of the withdrawal agreement? I ask this, because the backstop, as it is currently written, has the UK bound by EU product standards for goods, and has zero barriers for trade in goods between the UK and the EU.
Indeed, some of the paragraphs appear to have been lifted directly from the EU-Switzerland "Agreement on Customs Facilitation and Security of 2009". The only major difference being that we remain - for disputes regarding single market goods rules - under the jurisdiction of the ECJ rather than having a bespoke arrangement
So, if there are zero regulatory or tariff barriers under the backstop arrangement, and the ECJ continues to enforce single market in goods compliance, <i>in what way are we not in the Single Market for Goods?</i>
> Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of:
>
> Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP)
> Labour 12 (-8)
> Liberal Democrats 12 (+11)
> Greens 6 (+3)
> Conservatives 5 (-14)
> SNP 3 (+1)
> CUK 1 (+1)
>
> * compared to 2014 outcome.
>
> So... given Farage is claiming the main parties are anti-Brexit, that's 39 seats for anti-Brexit parties and only 31 for pro-Brexit parties.
>
> Sounds about right.
Hard Brexit 31
Remain (UK and EU) 19
Customs Union Brexit 12
May's Brexit 5
Leave the UK/Remain EU 3
> Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of:
>
> Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP)
> Labour 12 (-8)
> Liberal Democrats 12 (+11)
> Greens 6 (+3)
> Conservatives 5 (-14)
> SNP 3 (+1)
> CUK 1 (+1)
>
> * compared to 2014 outcome.
I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > Off topic, well sort of, I’m increasingly of the view that Brexit can’t happen without a second referendum (or a general election, with a very unlikely clear Tory victory).
> > > > >
> > > > > I fully expect the Tory/Labour negotiations to break down unless one is granted. May’s Deal will never get through without opposition support, never, and this parliament will never allow No Deal. And I doubt the EU will either.
> > > > >
> > > > > I can’t see the votes for unilateral revocation so either we’re stuck in limbo all the way until the next general election (whenever that is -because that huge can kick is the easiest thing to do) or it goes to a referendum to force the issue. Either way it goes to the electorate because this Parliament simply can’t resolve it.
> > > > >
> > > > > So the only way I can see it happening is if the Deal is based on both the Labour and Tory agreeing it and committing both frontbenches and their party apparatus to campaign on behalf of the Deal.
> > > > >
> > > > > Then, I could see it passing in a public vote, both from the loyal core votes and the moderates who want to respect the 2016 vote, but there’d be a whole lot of hollering from the backbenches on both sides along the way.
> > > >
> > > > Or one of the EU27 gets fed up of all the pissing about and refuses a further extension.
> > >
> > > Macron if he believes parliament won't accept no deal and therefore are forced to revoke.
> >
> > If the Commons revoked in October without even another referendum Farage would think Christmas had come early and the Brexit Party could lead the polls by New Year
>
> If no extension is given the government would be forced to revoke, even though it would destroy the Tory party.
>
> I agree that the result could well be the Brexit Party leading in the polls for a while.
One power that parliament still holds is the timing of a general election. If the Faragists move to 30%+ in Westminster polling, there's no way that parliament will vote to bring the government down and force a general election.
One scenario is that parliament rumbles on, finally agrees to a soft Brexit deal and we leave the EU. Even though this will fall far short of what Farage, the ERG etc. want, it would then be hard to imagine a Brexit Party winning an election.
Another scenario is that we end up having a second referendum. Which ever side wins, the UK is in for considerably more pain than we've gone through already.
>Have you actually read the text of the withdrawal agreement? I ask this, because the backstop, as it is currently written, has the UK bound by EU product standards for goods, and has zero barriers for trade in goods between the UK and the EU.
--------
Yes, and I suspect you skimmed over some important parts of it. It's the UK *in respect of Northern Ireland*.
Read Article 6-2.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759019/25_November_Agreement_on_the_withdrawal_of_the_United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Ireland_from_the_European_Union_and_the_European_Atomic_Energy_Community.pdf
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of:
> >
> > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP)
> > Labour 12 (-8)
> > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11)
> > Greens 6 (+3)
> > Conservatives 5 (-14)
> > SNP 3 (+1)
> > CUK 1 (+1)
> >
> > * compared to 2014 outcome.
>
> I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in.
They get 1 apiece in London, SE, SW, East, NW, West Mids - but I stress that yougov merge regions into the North, Midlands/Wales etc.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of:
> > >
> > > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP)
> > > Labour 12 (-8)
> > > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11)
> > > Greens 6 (+3)
> > > Conservatives 5 (-14)
> > > SNP 3 (+1)
> > > CUK 1 (+1)
> > >
> > > * compared to 2014 outcome.
> >
> > I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in.
>
> They get 1 apiece in London, SE, SW, East, NW, West Mids - but I stress that yougov merge regions into the North, Midlands/Wales etc.
Many thanks. Still work for them to do here in Yorkshire.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > Yougov infers MEP seat outcomes in the region of:
> >
> > Brexit Party 31 (+31 or +7 compared to UKIP)
> > Labour 12 (-8)
> > Liberal Democrats 12 (+11)
> > Greens 6 (+3)
> > Conservatives 5 (-14)
> > SNP 3 (+1)
> > CUK 1 (+1)
> >
> > * compared to 2014 outcome.
>
> I would be interested to know which 3 regions the Green gains are predicted to come in.
London, South East, South west ?
> That is fascinating, Ian's breakdown of hot and cold spots in the spread of voting percentiles for London under D'Hondt. And the coldest of the cold is 8%. You simply must not poll that. Breaking upwards from that to 9% moves you from unlikely to win a seat to unlikely to NOT win a seat. So, effectively, the extra 1% is very likely to win you THE seat, expressed in the singular since 1 seat is the most that such a party can expect. This dynamic is rather like FPTP in a tight marginal where you beat the party in 2nd place by 1% and it gives you the whole of the seat. Given that the electorate who live in these marginals are deemed to have the votes which really do count, i.e. it is a desirable situation from the viewpoint of the individual voter, perhaps it follows that in mimicking this aspect of FPTP, the D'Hondt system is a strong one.
Fascinating though it was, Tissue’s challenge on a point of detail made me return to the spreadsheet whereupon I discovered an embarrassing spreadsheet error. I started to redo the analysis but had to go out to a town council meeting. I will try to post it again, as it was an interesting way to dig beneath the voting system. Having glanced at my now correct workings my initial impression is that the larger party advantage is indeed more significant than my earlier flawed work suggested. My apologies for misleading everyone by posting some overhasty work.