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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EdM continues to progress with LAB voters in YouGov’s “Well/badly” ratings. But his net 44 way behind Dave’s net 84 with CON voters
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Cameron: +84 (+15)
Miliband: +44 (-1)
Progress, huh?
Might watch the highlights before writing the post-race piece.
FPT: Mr. G, thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it. What did you make of the Goat?
Maybe it's related to the guff-like announcements such as today's on the living wage we get so often from all politicians (not just Miliband). It's an odd one. If the living wage is such a good thing why not just increase the minimum wage to the right level?
Instead we get this one-year-only post-election bribe - after which benefits will catch up with incomes and the worker will be only marginally better off (if at all), and the employer will be saddled with the full cost of the increased salary and tax/NI.
It just seems like another compromised muddle. Contrast with the energy price freeze, which is no nonsense and had the desired effect on party supporters!
Among Lib Dem 2010 Net well (vs 2012)
Cameron: -31 (+2)
Miliband: -22 (-6)
The facts are Cameron has progressed among his supporters, Miliband is nearly back to where he was - and he's gone backwards among 2010 Lib Dems....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1390395.stm
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12472/9006876/sir-frank-williams-will-approach-ross-brawn-about-joining-the-team-if-he-is-available
I do get the feeling with Marr that he doesn't understand pretty basic stuff. Surely the point is that Ipso could request recognition from the Recognition body under the Royal Charter if it wanted to.
Marr didn't seem to get that. He didn't understand that even under the Royal Charter that it is for the press to set up their OWN body that then applies for recognition. So Ipso can be the press body just as equally as any other body.
All that isn't happening is that Ipso isn't applying for recognition (yet).
".....the man who called Two Jags, that's a name you coined: "He's a chimp, a pustulating boil of resentment and class hatred, a chippy, thin-skinned puffed up laughing stock, an ocean-going tub of lard, groaning with arrogance, ego, hypocrisy, and inferiority, he's an inadequate, inarticulate embarrassment, a disgrace to Britain at home and abroad."
"International Development Minister Alan Duncan claimed £2,750 for electricity bills and £1,250 in heating oil for his home in Rutland, Leicestershire..."
http://www.channel4.com/news/mps-expenses-energy-bills-home-heating-nadhim-zahawi
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHNjRUpXY2ZYamVrVlJPbmRNdzNTd0E#gid=0
"This is brilliant Self v Littlejohn"
It's 12 years old.
Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi, founder of market research firm YouGov, claimed the most with a bill of £5,822.27 covering electricity and heating oil for his Warwickshire estate.
That's just plain nuts. Why the feck do we have to pay for him to live on an estate anyway? That's his choice, he should pay for his own energy use, over and above the national average.
" SELF: Well he doesn't say he's a human being, does he? He uses the classic form of demonisation which is to say he's a chimp, in other words he's bestial. So he's actually dehumanised the subject of his abuse before he even moves on to piling on the pejoratives, and I think that's very psychologically interesting, of course we're all familiar with the kind of people who demonise other human beings by turning them into bestiary...we all know who does that.
[long pause]
LITTLEJOHN: In the Psychiatrist's Chair with Nicky Campbell
CAMPBELL: Caroline Feraday has the travel.
Incidentally, I've just got a new one out, a shorti(ish) comedy called Sir Edric's Temple. It's up on Amazon, or you can get it for 2/3 off with code KF49K here: https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/373077
"I'm not voting for any of you! The Mail says you're all living on estates and claiming thousands in fuel bills?"
"I'm not an MP. When I was my fuel bill wasn't anything like that."
"Huh! I'm not voting for any of you!"
"But..."
(door slams)
(sigh)
But claiming three or four times what the average household uses seems excessive - and, with a bit of luck - politically damaging....
What exactly did you ever pay for out of your own pocket?
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/quantum-deal-is-completed/
This may mean that Hulkenberg will go there after all. Let's hope so.
I'll get cracking with the post-race piece and get it up shortly.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis.html
Weird fact: this is the first race this season where my profit has been between £1 and £40.
Might be worth putting some money on Ed Davey as next out of the cabinet at 33/1 with Ladbrokes.
I get the feeling that's one that's going to get very very messy.
It is expenses and he's renting from the local Lib Dem party (and his wife is a director of the company that owns the property) at what appears to be twice the local going rate.
This one of those where the perceptions matter more than the facts.
RT @Millie_77: Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi claimed nearly £6k on expenses for his energy bill. £6K!! Is he running a cannabis farm?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24794093
Odd non story in Falkirk for SLab. Deans steps down as chairman.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10472/nick_palmer/broxtowe#expenses
IIRC Nick Palmer wasn't asked to repay anything back/had no issues when Sir Thomas Legg investigated his expenses in 2009.
Edit: Just wanted to clarify, Sir Thomas Legg didn't solely investigate Nick Palmer, he investigated every MPs expenses when the expenses scandal broke.
Which puts him in a good light when it comes to expenses
Legg merely found no reason to add Palmer and others to the list of Labour MPs who ended up in court.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmmemest/348/348.pdf
With very few exceptions (and there were some honourable exceptions who were claiming almost nothing) even those MPs who were claiming what they were legally entitled to were helping to propagate a dishonest system.
Definitely one for Tim to enjoy re alternative medicine.
"Do you know what you call alternative medicine that works? it's called medicine."
Name: Doncaster North MP: Ed Miliband Party: Labour Claim (£): 403.59 Fuel type: Electricity.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/your-mp-claim-energy-bills-2671685
Firstly and probably most importantly the LibDems need to increase their share of the vote from approx 10% currently to at least 16%, with two thirds of this increased share coming from Labour.
Secondly UKIP's share of the vote needs to fall from approx 12% currently to 6% with at least two thirds of those switching opting for the Tories.
Thirdly there has to be a straight switch of at least 3% from Labour to the Tories.
Assuming Labour currently has a 5% lead over the Tories, with these parties holding 38% and 33% of the vote respectively, the above movements I have suggested would result in each of their shares becoming:
Labour 38% - 4% +2% - 3% = 33%
Tories 33% - 2% +4% +3% =38%
LibDems 10% + 6% = 16%
UKIP 12% - 6% = 6%
Others 7%
Probably sufficient to result in the Tories winning the most seats without necessarily winning an overall majority. This looks like a very big ask to me on all three counts.
So if you wish to continue posting on here, you will desist with your approach
1. Enshrine in law an EU referendum will take place in 2015 regardless of who is in power.
2. Repeal the climate change act
3. Start fracking now.
"A slur of which the Met would be proud, and no one else should be."
Well said. There are some really nasty pieces of work posting here. GeoffM just being one of several these days.
Hugo Miéville, North Dorset:
http://www.blackmorevale.co.uk/Liberal-Democrats-select-North-Dorset-candidate/story-19806154-detail/story.html
Sam Phripp, North East Somerset:
http://theweekin.co.uk/uncategorized/lib-dems-elect-their-candidate-to-fight-2015-general-election-in-north-east-somerset/
Being disliked by the hilarious self-parody Roger is as much a badge of distinction as getting a "Troll" on here from Hortence Wittering. I'd be concerned it it were any other way.
You're of course entitled to a view on what MPs should be allowed to claim for (in my case 3 FTE staff and a one-bedroom flat rented near Parliament - fuel costs were pretty small), but I don't think most people would think it odd to use the staff allowance for staff and the rental allowance for rent. If an allowance is too generous, cut it, but don't take a sinister view when people use an allowance in accordance with both the letter and the spirit of its purpose. Isn't that what you do in your job?
I cannot think of any reasons, any suggestions?
But the spirit of allowances? Not at all. I don't think that the spirit extended to bathplugs and biscuits and renting skin-flicks and a Tom Watson all-you-can-eat food allowance and renting offices to yourselves and employing swathes of your families to lick envelopes. Home flipping, especially when it allowed London MPs to have second homes was all within the letter of the allowances but within the spirit? Pull the other one and listen to the bells.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/03/press-self-regulation-leveson-censorship?CMP=twt_gu
Davis would certainly bring many UKIP voters back into the fold at the GE, Crosby is as arrogant as Cameron and just assumes UKIP voters will return forthwith.
He is wrong.
However he is viewed as a person is immaterial, he has managed to turn a catostrophic situation around without relating mass unemployment and deserves huge credit for that.
And I am not a Tory"
"What could possibly motivate the politicians to want to muzzle the press?
I cannot think of any reasons, any suggestions? "
Do you really think that or are you just trying to be smart?
Ghastly, ghastly man. For once, the Tories elected the right person in 2005. And he's still the best. By far.
Even Gordon Brown would have defeated him 2007.
Osborne has had some successes but he`s nowhere done as well as the right would like to think he has.He has continued to miss the targets he had set for himself and by some margin.
Poor you.
However, I think that both the LibDems and the UKIP shifts are more likely than not to happen.
The Tory/Labour split I reckon will remain very similar: the electorate will view the question as essentially the same as last time (a gentle squeeze vs profligacy), so I don't see a reason for much direct shifting.
As I've posted before, though, where that could shift is in Scotland - where the SNP not the Tories will benefit in vote share, but which represents downside to Labour (and possibly - I think - the Tories winning 1 or two seats by sneaking through the middle?)
edit: but my outcome assessment is Tories largest party in a hung parliament. It may be hope though - perhaps more realistic is Labour largest in a hung parliament
I know a Davis led Tory party would never been able to perform the way Dave and George did in 2007, which altered the narrative and the polls, and made Brown and Darling look like amateurs.
In almost every sense, Davis was unsuited to be a party leader.