Mail poll is Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 7, LD 7, others 9. The others must include some TIGers and Greens who, like UKIP, are unlikely to stand everywhere, so it probably evens out. Boris well ahead on best next leader.
That -11 figure for the Tories looks catastrophic whichever way you look at it.
The weird thing about polling is that sometimes you're just sitting there staring at something and you can't understand why it's not moving to reflect what you're seeing, and it just keeps on and on not showing it, until suddenly one day it does.
Mail poll is Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 7, LD 7, others 9. The others must include some TIGers and Greens who, like UKIP, are unlikely to stand everywhere, so it probably evens out. Boris well ahead on best next leader.
That -11 figure for the Tories looks catastrophic whichever way you look at it.
No it doesn’t. It looks like polling that had them on 43 last time was an error, so instead of fault lying with a political party it lies with the polling company.
Mail poll is Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 7, LD 7, others 9. The others must include some TIGers and Greens who, like UKIP, are unlikely to stand everywhere, so it probably evens out. Boris well ahead on best next leader.
I’m sorry? The Government would advise he Queen to veto a bill passed by the legislature? Seriously? What “abuse of constitutional procedures” could possibly warrant that? Does May really think that not getting her way is unconstitutional?
Who is going to introduce the legislation?
Any MP, or indeed peer, can introduce a bill into Parliament. It would be unusual for such important legislation to be introduced as a private members bill but hardly unconstitutional.
Parliament taking control of the timetable to allow for the introduction of legislation (which is what would be needed) would be a constitutional disaster
Don’t see it myself. Parliament has the power to control its own timetable. The fact the Government has controlled for so long it comes solely from the fact that the Government normally controls Parliament-it has clearly lost control however, thanks to the perfect storm of Brexit and the FTPA. A constitutional disaster would happen if Royal Assent was refused to a bill validly passed by both houses, not from a private member’s bill becoming law. Parliament is there to pass laws, the judiciary interprets them and the executive carries them out. If the executive stops the legislature passing laws then you have a crisis.
I’m sorry? The Government would advise he Queen to veto a bill passed by the legislature? Seriously? What “abuse of constitutional procedures” could possibly warrant that? Does May really think that not getting her way is unconstitutional?
There is not the slightest chance of the Queen using a power last used by Queen Anne. The government has gone doolally if it imagines otherwise.
If May cannot get her Brexit Deal through the Commons and the Commons votes for soft Brexit instead constitutionally I expect the Queen would have no choice but to tell Mrs May sorry, you clearly no longer have the confidence of Parliament and I will have to ask Mr Corbyn to see if he can form a government with the SNP, the DUP and the LDs which does have the confidence of Parliament and can implement the soft Brexit it has voted for if there is no majority for a general election either
With respect that is utter rubbish. No confidence comes from the HOC, no one else
The Queen will only come into it when directed by her PM
I am afraid it is not utter rubbish. The executive is Her Majesty's Government not a stand alone Government and sovereignty in our system is based on the Crown in Parliament, if the Crown's Government cannot get key legislation through Parliament then the Crown has no alternative but to try and change the executive as it frequently did in the 18th and 19th centuries, Queen Victoria and Queen Anne for example frequently disposed of PMs
Mail poll is Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 7, LD 7, others 9. The others must include some TIGers and Greens who, like UKIP, are unlikely to stand everywhere, so it probably evens out. Boris well ahead on best next leader.
That -11 figure for the Tories looks catastrophic whichever way you look at it.
The weird thing about polling is that sometimes you're just sitting there staring at something and you can't understand why it's not moving to reflect what you're seeing, and it just keeps on and on not showing it, until suddenly one day it does.
often polling takes a week or so to reflect events. It could get worse for the blues...
Mail poll is Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 7, LD 7, others 9. The others must include some TIGers and Greens who, like UKIP, are unlikely to stand everywhere, so it probably evens out. Boris well ahead on best next leader.
That -11 figure for the Tories looks catastrophic whichever way you look at it.
Yes, although frankly the figure is just returning to where I thought it should be already - I could not understand how a government in open crisis with resignation threats every day and people calling for the PM's head all the time could possible be leading or level pegging.
Mail poll is Lab 41, Con 36, UKIP 7, LD 7, others 9. The others must include some TIGers and Greens who, like UKIP, are unlikely to stand everywhere, so it probably evens out. Boris well ahead on best next leader.
That -11 figure for the Tories looks catastrophic whichever way you look at it.
The weird thing about polling is that sometimes you're just sitting there staring at something and you can't understand why it's not moving to reflect what you're seeing, and it just keeps on and on not showing it, until suddenly one day it does.
Indeed. This poll and all its sub-sets leaps to the eye after months of lack of movement in a number of areas that was hard to explain.
I’m sorry? The Government would advise he Queen to veto a bill passed by the legislature? Seriously? What “abuse of constitutional procedures” could possibly warrant that? Does May really think that not getting her way is unconstitutional?
Who is going to introduce the legislation?
Any MP, or indeed peer, can introduce a bill into Parliament. It would be unusual for such important legislation to be introduced as a private members bill but hardly unconstitutional.
Parliament taking control of the timetable to allow for the introduction of legislation (which is what would be needed) would be a constitutional disaster
Nah, it is our equivalent of the 25th ammendment, in use because May has lost her marbles.
No she hasn’t. She’s right that there are only 3 options and everything else is fantasy. She’s just inflexible in her tactics
May has been living in fantasy land since before Christmas. She is deranged.
I should add Anthony Wells' standard warning about striking and unusual polls. If the parties are level-pegging, you should expect to see the occasional substantial lead either way.
This week's results are Tie, Tie, Con +3, Lab + 5.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
It is not for most Labour seats which voted Leave or for most Labour voters who voted Remain, there lies the problem for any future Corbyn government. To be quite honest I am almost looking forward to Corbyn trying to govern given he has done nothing but put his self interest before the country's over the last few months the calamity that will be a Corbyn government will be something to witness
Adding the last three polls (YG, Opinium and Delta) into the EMA gives:
Con 35.9% Lab 34.3% Tories still ahead with diminishing lead.
Con 302 Lab 262 LD 24 SNP 40 PC 3 Green 1 NI 18
Tories 24 short of a majority. Minority Labour Government. Labour lose 4 to SNP, 2 to LD and gain 6 from Tories to end up even. Tories lose 16: 9 to LDs, 6 to Labour and 1 to SNP.
Can anyone clarify is the permanent customs union being voted on “the” customs union or “a” customs union?
It can not be The Customs Union because the EU treaties are clear that only EU members can be a member of "The".
So what is being proposed is to allow third parties to have tariff free access to our markets but with us having no reciprocal rights , which makes the EU more competitive than us globally.great plan that, thick mp’s
The EU can agree a bilateral where a country gets the same deal as "The" but it is called "A". i,e What Corbyn wants. The question is will they do it?
I’m sorry? The Government would advise he Queen to veto a bill passed by the legislature? Seriously? What “abuse of constitutional procedures” could possibly warrant that? Does May really think that not getting her way is unconstitutional?
There is not the slightest chance of the Queen using a power last used by Queen Anne. The government has gone doolally if it imagines otherwise.
Quite. Even if we entirely agreed that a bill should be blocked, it would extend the crisis to threaten the monarchy as well.
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
RIght now Brexit should be the priority. Getting rid of the Tories happens as a part of that. If nothing matters but getting the other side out that is just hyper partisan drivel, pure tribalist infantile behaviour, explicitly admitting it is not about policy or ideology but about wearing the wrong bloody emblem. How people can proudly admit to that sort of thing I do not know.
I’m sorry? The Government would advise he Queen to veto a bill passed by the legislature? Seriously? What “abuse of constitutional procedures” could possibly warrant that? Does May really think that not getting her way is unconstitutional?
There is not the slightest chance of the Queen using a power last used by Queen Anne. The government has gone doolally if it imagines otherwise.
Quite. Even if we entirely agreed that a bill should be blocked, it would extend the crisis to threaten the monarchy as well.
I’m sure that what the nation needs at this time is a good old constitutional debate about the monarchy! That will bring us together.
It turns out that when the Conservatives fail to deliver their signature policy, which uniquely was mandated by a referendum they called, their support haemorrhages.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
It is not for most Labour seats which voted Leave or for most Labour voters who voted Remain, there lies the problem for any future Corbyn government. To be quite honest I am almost looking forward to Corbyn trying to govern given he has done nothing but put his self interest before the country's over the last few months the calamity that will be a Corbyn government will be something to witness
Are you able to provide any polling to back up that assertion?
Labour voters are more interested in health, education and jobs than the EU by a big margin.
It turns out that when the Conservatives fail to deliver their signature policy, which uniquely was mandated by a referendum they called, their support haemorrhages.
Can anyone clarify is the permanent customs union being voted on “the” customs union or “a” customs union?
It can not be The Customs Union because the EU treaties are clear that only EU members can be a member of "The".
So what is being proposed is to allow third parties to have tariff free access to our markets but with us having no reciprocal rights , which makes the EU more competitive than us globally.great plan that, thick mp’s
The EU can agree a bilateral where a country gets the same deal as "The" but it is called "A". i,e What Corbyn wants. The question is will they do it?
Isn’t that a unicorn which is not going to happen as it gives us membership benefits without paying in?
I don't wish ill of anyone, and do not make light of discussing mental illness in a public figure, but I do wonder. Being Prime Minister at any time must be an extraordinarily difficult job, and in present circumstances,surrounded by "colleagues" who appear to be self-serving shits of the first order, must be an impossible one. Superimposed on that May is a type one diabetic, yet required to do long, relentless and irregular hours. I have also long suspected that she is autistic, as evidenced by her being a loner, inflexibility,and lack of humour, among other features. Such people deal with stress badly, and I do wonder whether she has finally gone over the top. Wilson was the last Prime Minister who went mad in office; Eden was a barbiturate addict, and Churchill had bouts of depression and problems with alcohol, so its not a scenario that is unknown But is May going to have to be taken away by the men in white coats?
It turns out that when the Conservatives fail to deliver their signature policy, which uniquely was mandated by a referendum they called, their support haemorrhages.
Who could have predicted this?
Even with Deltapoll the 36% the Tories got is the same Cameron got in 2010 and 2015, so hardly haemorrahaging but yes clearly down
Can anyone clarify is the permanent customs union being voted on “the” customs union or “a” customs union?
It can not be The Customs Union because the EU treaties are clear that only EU members can be a member of "The".
So what is being proposed is to allow third parties to have tariff free access to our markets but with us having no reciprocal rights , which makes the EU more competitive than us globally.great plan that, thick mp’s
‘a’ customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members. Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in “the” European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade.
One of the strongest arguments for ‘the’ EU customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that. For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
So it’s an absolute kicker as bozzy Bear would say if you plan a real brexit with all the benefits. It’s not Liberterian, it would prevent you being a pirate, and you would never really be an island.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
RIght now Brexit should be the priority. Getting rid of the Tories happens as a part of that. If nothing matters but getting the other side out that is just hyper partisan drivel, pure tribalist infantile behaviour, explicitly admitting it is not about policy or ideology but about wearing the wrong bloody emblem. How people can proudly admit to that sort of thing I do not know.
Of course getting rid of the Tories is about policy and ideology. Firstly, to stop them enacting their damaging ideologically-motivated policies and then with them out we are in, and we can start to build a better society.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
Labour has been much more united in its opposition to May's deal than was expected. IIRC the number of rebels has not reached double figures in any of the votes so far.
The government has led us into such an appalling mess that I think even moderate Labour supporters have swung behind Corbyn - he could not possibly be worse and, hemmed in by a PLP with a moderate majority, he could well surprise on the upside.
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
Rubbish, there is a 1% majority for Revoke which shows nothing more than the country is split down the middle, not a huge swing to Remain and as the vast majority of Tories would be in the not revoke and anti EUref2 camp doing either would break her party and lead to a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party or UKIP
Can anyone clarify is the permanent customs union being voted on “the” customs union or “a” customs union?
It can not be The Customs Union because the EU treaties are clear that only EU members can be a member of "The".
So what is being proposed is to allow third parties to have tariff free access to our markets but with us having no reciprocal rights , which makes the EU more competitive than us globally.great plan that, thick mp’s
The EU can agree a bilateral where a country gets the same deal as "The" but it is called "A". i,e What Corbyn wants. The question is will they do it?
Isn’t that a unicorn which is not going to happen as it gives us membership benefits without paying in?
Well the EU takes 80% of the tariffs levied in The CU. Will they do it, no chance in my opinion, but what is that worth.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
It is not for most Labour seats which voted Leave or for most Labour voters who voted Remain, there lies the problem for any future Corbyn government. To be quite honest I am almost looking forward to Corbyn trying to govern given he has done nothing but put his self interest before the country's over the last few months the calamity that will be a Corbyn government will be something to witness
Are you able to provide any polling to back up that assertion?
Labour voters are more interested in health, education and jobs than the EU by a big margin.
So what, Labour Leave seats also contain Tory and UKIP voters as do Labour and Tory Leave voting marginals and if they turn off Leave voting swing voters those Leave voting marginal seats are then open to the Tories.
Most Labour voters are also interested in the EU but reversing Brexit not preserving it, therein lies the problem for Labour candidates in Leave voting marginals which want to preserve Brexit
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
Are you talking about in Parliament or in the country? I probably missed the polls describing that if it is the latter.
I don't wish ill of anyone, and do not make light of discussing mental illness in a public figure, but I do wonder. Being Prime Minister at any time must be an extraordinarily difficult job, and in present circumstances,surrounded by "colleagues" who appear to be self-serving shits of the first order, must be an impossible one. Superimposed on that May is a type one diabetic, yet required to do long, relentless and irregular hours. I have also long suspected that she is autistic, as evidenced by her being a loner, inflexibility,and lack of humour, among other features. Such people deal with stress badly, and I do wonder whether she has finally gone over the top. Wilson was the last Prime Minister who went mad in office; Eden was a barbiturate addict, and Churchill had bouts of depression and problems with alcohol, so its not a scenario that is unknown But is May going to have to be taken away by the men in white coats?
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
Labour has been much more united in its opposition to May's deal than was expected. IIRC the number of rebels has not reached double figures in any of the votes so far.
The government has led us into such an appalling mess that I think even moderate Labour supporters have swung behind Corbyn - he could not possibly be worse and, hemmed in by a PLP with a moderate majority, he could well surprise on the upside.
Why do you think the PLP will be anything other than spineless followers? Evidence to the contrary is thin.
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
I think the way you get your Referendum is via a General Election. Labour would offer it and win.
Can anyone clarify is the permanent customs union being voted on “the” customs union or “a” customs union?
It can not be The Customs Union because the EU treaties are clear that only EU members can be a member of "The".
So what is being proposed is to allow third parties to have tariff free access to our markets but with us having no reciprocal rights , which makes the EU more competitive than us globally.great plan that, thick mp’s
The EU can agree a bilateral where a country gets the same deal as "The" but it is called "A". i,e What Corbyn wants. The question is will they do it?
Isn’t that a unicorn which is not going to happen as it gives us membership benefits without paying in?
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
Are you talking about in Parliament or in the country? I probably missed the polls describing that if it is the latter.
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
Are you talking about in Parliament or in the country? I probably missed the polls describing that if it is the latter.
CU breaks Brexit. No Brexiter should sign up to a Deal that surrenders tariff control to the EU, prevents third party trade deals, and requires paying the EU in the bargain.
No, it’s totally batshit.
The only option is May’s Deal, and if they cannot pass (and we’ve had three goes) then a majority exists in the House - and apparently in the country - for a confirmatory referendum on it.
I don't wish ill of anyone, and do not make light of discussing mental illness in a public figure, but I do wonder. Being Prime Minister at any time must be an extraordinarily difficult job, and in present circumstances,surrounded by "colleagues" who appear to be self-serving shits of the first order, must be an impossible one. Superimposed on that May is a type one diabetic, yet required to do long, relentless and irregular hours. I have also long suspected that she is autistic, as evidenced by her being a loner, inflexibility,and lack of humour, among other features. Such people deal with stress badly, and I do wonder whether she has finally gone over the top. Wilson was the last Prime Minister who went mad in office; Eden was a barbiturate addict, and Churchill had bouts of depression and problems with alcohol, so its not a scenario that is unknown But is May going to have to be taken away by the men in white coats?
I don’t like this post. It’s all snide conjecture just like all those bits in the mail about supposed wars between in-laws in royal family. You are making pretty wild assumptions without access to any real facts about the patient. An equal fact to anything you have offered is she chose to be up late the other Saturday night playing pool with flirtatious latins.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Agreed - if the tories somehow contrive to block Brexit they will be monstered.
CU breaks Brexit. No Brexiter should sign up to a Deal that surrenders tariff control to the EU, prevents third party trade deals, and requires paying the EU in the bargain.
No, it’s totally batshit.
The only option is May’s Deal, and if they cannot pass (and we’ve had three goes) then a majority exists in the House - and apparently in the country - for a confirmatory referendum on it.
I'm not sure it does. Only 8 Conservatives support a second referendum, and the answer to polling on a second referendum depends entirely on how the question is phrased.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
Rubbish, there is a 1% majority for Revoke which shows nothing more than the country is split down the middle, not a huge swing to Remain and as the vast majority of Tories would be in the not revoke and anti EUref2 camp doing either would break her party and lead to a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party or UKIP
There is now a majority for Revoke, a larger majority for a Second Ref, and an even larger majority for Remain.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
Are you talking about in Parliament or in the country? I probably missed the polls describing that if it is the latter.
[Victoria Wood voice] regardless how you voted, are you just sick to the back teeth with it like me and just wish someone would just hit a revoke button and be done with?
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Agreed - if the tories somehow contrive to block Brexit they will be monstered.
I don't wish ill of anyone, and do not make light of discussing mental illness in a public figure, but I do wonder. Being Prime Minister at any time must be an extraordinarily difficult job, and in present circumstances,surrounded by "colleagues" who appear to be self-serving shits of the first order, must be an impossible one. Superimposed on that May is a type one diabetic, yet required to do long, relentless and irregular hours. I have also long suspected that she is autistic, as evidenced by her being a loner, inflexibility,and lack of humour, among other features. Such people deal with stress badly, and I do wonder whether she has finally gone over the top. Wilson was the last Prime Minister who went mad in office; Eden was a barbiturate addict, and Churchill had bouts of depression and problems with alcohol, so its not a scenario that is unknown But is May going to have to be taken away by the men in white coats?
I don’t like this post. It’s all snide conjecture just like all those bits in the mail about supposed wars between in-laws in royal family. You are making pretty wild assumptions without access to any real facts about the patient. An equal fact to anything you have offered is she chose to be up late the other Saturday night playing pool with flirtatious latins.
Also, what is this about Wilson "going mad in office"? Link please.
I remember IDS's brilliantly awful conference speech..
"The Quiet Man.... is TURNING UP THE VOLUME ! "
Followed by a standing ovation of Tories trying not to laugh, later followed up by interviews to the media saying "He's done as much as he can, and the party appreciates that."
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
If May could have signed the Deal herself without Parliamentary ratification, we would not be in this mess. Grieve has acted with intent; what remains of the ERG merely demonstrates that it is possible to serve as an MP after one’s lobotomy.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
More likely, they've ensured Corbyn and no Brexit.
I know that the Brexistential Crisis is very serious, but to see the Tories on the brink of disintegration is very, very entertaining.
Shit on, you bunch of feckers.
Labour is no more united
Brexit is a second-order issue for most of Labour. Our priority is getting rid of the Tories
RIght now Brexit should be the priority. Getting rid of the Tories happens as a part of that. If nothing matters but getting the other side out that is just hyper partisan drivel, pure tribalist infantile behaviour, explicitly admitting it is not about policy or ideology but about wearing the wrong bloody emblem. How people can proudly admit to that sort of thing I do not know.
Of course getting rid of the Tories is about policy and ideology. Firstly, to stop them enacting their damaging ideologically-motivated policies and then with them out we are in, and we can start to build a better society.
Night all.
You meant you could impose your damaging ideologically driven policies.
Which will hurt the country far more than even a no deal Brexit.
Plus I have a feeling it will be easier to rejoin the EU than prise the marxists away from power.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Agreed - if the tories somehow contrive to block Brexit they will be monstered.
CU breaks Brexit. No Brexiter should sign up to a Deal that surrenders tariff control to the EU, prevents third party trade deals, and requires paying the EU in the bargain.
No, it’s totally batshit.
The only option is May’s Deal, and if they cannot pass (and we’ve had three goes) then a majority exists in the House - and apparently in the country - for a confirmatory referendum on it.
I'm not sure it does. Only 8 Conservatives support a second referendum, and the answer to polling on a second referendum depends entirely on how the question is phrased.
Another 50 Conservatives didn't vote against it. They are in the DK column. Many of them could come across to PV for Mrs May's deal.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
More likely, they've ensured Corbyn and no Brexit.
170 Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, it's going to happen.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
More likely, they've ensured Corbyn and no Brexit.
170 Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, it's going to happen.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Agreed - if the tories somehow contrive to block Brexit they will be monstered.
What if they call the referendum and win it?
Ironically the landscape is now favourable for Cameron's original plan of using a referendum to settle the civil war in the Tory party to work.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
More likely, they've ensured Corbyn and no Brexit.
170 Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, it's going to happen.
It isn't, on Monday the Commons will likely vote for CU BINO
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Agreed - if the tories somehow contrive to block Brexit they will be monstered.
What if they call the referendum and win it?
That would be an option if, say, you could get 200 Tory MP's to back it. But you can't. Try whipping it, and you get maybe 40-50 in favour.
Probably with great reluctance, but remember some army officers even plotted against Wilson who looks like Thatcher in comparison to Corbyn. Perhaps we will get our first General as dictator of the UK since Cromwell after a few years of Corbyn and take a leaf out of Egypt's book?
And a little odd. I do not see any 'madness' in TM repeatedly attempting to get the WA ratified. She knows, as I do, as we all should since it is obvious, that unless and until the HoC can agree a feasible alternative, which they will almost certainly fail to do, it is the only way we can leave the EU in an orderly fashion. She would be acting highly irresponsibly if she did not do everything in her power to keep the option alive. She is behaving rationally. She is the Absolute Girl in this regard.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
More likely, they've ensured Corbyn and no Brexit.
170 Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, it's going to happen.
It isn't, on Monday the Commons will likely vote for CU BINO
May is not going to enact something against the manifesto in which she was elected.
She will go down fighting to deliver the referendum mandate. Corbyn will make us look back to her time in government with nostalgia.
CU breaks Brexit. No Brexiter should sign up to a Deal that surrenders tariff control to the EU, prevents third party trade deals, and requires paying the EU in the bargain.
No, it’s totally batshit.
The only option is May’s Deal, and if they cannot pass (and we’ve had three goes) then a majority exists in the House - and apparently in the country - for a confirmatory referendum on it.
I'm not sure it does. Only 8 Conservatives support a second referendum, and the answer to polling on a second referendum depends entirely on how the question is phrased.
Another 50 Conservatives didn't vote against it. They are in the DK column. Many of them could come across to PV for Mrs May's deal.
They are mostly senior ministers, who are also opposed. Even if May said okay to a second referendum, she'd have to allow a free vote.
“We are not interested in reforming … the police, armed services, judiciary and monarchy. We are about dismantling them and replacing them with our own machinery of class rule.”
CU breaks Brexit. No Brexiter should sign up to a Deal that surrenders tariff control to the EU, prevents third party trade deals, and requires paying the EU in the bargain.
No, it’s totally batshit.
The only option is May’s Deal, and if they cannot pass (and we’ve had three goes) then a majority exists in the House - and apparently in the country - for a confirmatory referendum on it.
I'm not sure it does. Only 8 Conservatives support a second referendum, and the answer to polling on a second referendum depends entirely on how the question is phrased.
Another 50 Conservatives didn't vote against it. They are in the DK column. Many of them could come across to PV for Mrs May's deal.
They are mostly senior ministers, who are also opposed. Even if May said okay to a second referendum, she'd have to allow a free vote.
May will never enact a second referendum or revoke. She will need to be VONC’ed.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
Your ire should really be aimed at the ERG holdouts who are much more numerous than Grieve.
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
More likely, they've ensured Corbyn and no Brexit.
170 Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, it's going to happen.
It isn't, on Monday the Commons will likely vote for CU BINO
May is not going to enact something against the manifesto in which she was elected.
She will go down fighting to deliver the referendum mandate. Corbyn will make us look back to her time in government with nostalgia.
Which again leads to the problem the executive cannot ignore what the Commons has voted for on Brexit without a constitutional crisis which likely leads to a change of government
<<We are not interested in reforming … the police, armed services, judiciary and monarchy. We are about dismantling them and replacing them with our own machinery of class rule.>>
Some of these quotes are from rather a long time ago.
Peter Mandelson was also once in the Communist party, for instance.
Plus Corbyn should make appoint lawyers from Leigh Day to become Attorney General and Defence Secretary to keep the armed forces in check.
Not always, as Oliver Cromwell proved, when Parliament displeased him he just marched in with some soldiers and removed most of them, at the end of the day if the army has no confidence in the government a coup is possible in any country no matter how democratic it would seem to be
I don't wish ill of anyone, and do not make light of discussing mental illness in a public figure, but I do wonder. Being Prime Minister at any time must be an extraordinarily difficult job, and in present circumstances,surrounded by "colleagues" who appear to be self-serving shits of the first order, must be an impossible one. Superimposed on that May is a type one diabetic, yet required to do long, relentless and irregular hours. I have also long suspected that she is autistic, as evidenced by her being a loner, inflexibility,and lack of humour, among other features. Such people deal with stress badly, and I do wonder whether she has finally gone over the top. Wilson was the last Prime Minister who went mad in office; Eden was a barbiturate addict, and Churchill had bouts of depression and problems with alcohol, so its not a scenario that is unknown But is May going to have to be taken away by the men in white coats?
I don’t like this post. It’s all snide conjecture just like all those bits in the mail about supposed wars between in-laws in royal family. You are making pretty wild assumptions without access to any real facts about the patient. An equal fact to anything you have offered is she chose to be up late the other Saturday night playing pool with flirtatious latins.
Also, what is this about Wilson "going mad in office"? Link please.
It has been suggested that Wilson realised that he was developing dementia before he resigned (his father also had early onset dementia). However this did not manifest itself in the kind of refusal to accept reality and delusional bunker mentality which seems to be afflicting May. On the contrary, he realised the game was up and decided to quit while he was ahead.
When they are described in the following terms: “[Corbyn]...hemmed in by a PLP with a moderate majority..”.
The suggestion, by I believe, a Labour supporter, is that the leadership and PLP lines will be at odds with each other.
Yes, I get the context. Moderate Labour supporter postulates that Corbyn will not be able to do anything radical because his MPs will stop him.
To which you object with "Wouldn't count on it. The evidence is they are spineless followers."
To which I asked (rather snidely and pointedly) "When does following the party line make an MP a spineless follower? Is it when you (Matt) disagree with the party line?"
And a little odd. I do not see any 'madness' in TM repeatedly attempting to get the WA ratified. She knows, as I do, as we all should since it is obvious, that unless and until the HoC can agree a feasible alternative, which they will almost certainly fail to do, it is the only way we can leave the EU in an orderly fashion. She would be acting highly irresponsibly if she did not do everything in her power to keep the option alive. She is behaving rationally. She is the Absolute Girl in this regard.
I think May’s position is perfectly sane politics. The moment Team May admits they’re whipping a horse so dead it’s a glue stick an alliance on it falls apart, brexiteers start pushing managed no deal cabinet remainers for Deal plus CU for example and all hell breaks loose. Hence May doesn’t give up on it. people question her sanity without realising the real madness the moment she admits defeat.
And a little odd. I do not see any 'madness' in TM repeatedly attempting to get the WA ratified. She knows, as I do, as we all should since it is obvious, that unless and until the HoC can agree a feasible alternative, which they will almost certainly fail to do, it is the only way we can leave the EU in an orderly fashion. She would be acting highly irresponsibly if she did not do everything in her power to keep the option alive. She is behaving rationally. She is the Absolute Girl in this regard.
I think May’s position is perfectly sane politics. The moment Team May admits they’re whipping a horse so dead it’s a glue stick an alliance on it falls apart, brexiteers start pushing managed no deal cabinet remainers for Deal plus CU for example and all hell breaks loose. Hence May doesn’t give up on it. people question her sanity without realising the real madness the moment she admits defeat.
Am I right, or am I right?
May is more level-headed than the majority of MP's, but that does not set the bar high.
Comments
This week's results are Tie, Tie, Con +3, Lab + 5.
Con 35.9% Lab 34.3% Tories still ahead with diminishing lead.
Con 302
Lab 262
LD 24
SNP 40
PC 3
Green 1
NI 18
Tories 24 short of a majority.
Minority Labour Government.
Labour lose 4 to SNP, 2 to LD and gain 6 from Tories to end up even.
Tories lose 16: 9 to LDs, 6 to Labour and 1 to SNP.
If Theresa really wants to save the Tory Party from either short term annihilation or long team death, she must swing toward the confirmatory referendum amendment.
No Deal, GE, and Customs Union all break her party.
It turns out that when the Conservatives fail to deliver their signature policy, which uniquely was mandated by a referendum they called, their support haemorrhages.
Who could have predicted this?
Labour voters are more interested in health, education and jobs than the EU by a big margin.
Being Prime Minister at any time must be an extraordinarily difficult job, and in present circumstances,surrounded by "colleagues" who appear to be self-serving shits of the first order, must be an impossible one.
Superimposed on that May is a type one diabetic, yet required to do long, relentless and irregular hours. I have also long suspected that she is autistic, as evidenced by her being a loner, inflexibility,and lack of humour, among other features. Such people deal with stress badly, and I do wonder whether she has finally gone over the top.
Wilson was the last Prime Minister who went mad in office; Eden was a barbiturate addict, and Churchill had bouts of depression and problems with alcohol, so its not a scenario that is unknown
But is May going to have to be taken away by the men in white coats?
One of the strongest arguments for ‘the’ EU customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that. For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
So it’s an absolute kicker as bozzy Bear would say if you plan a real brexit with all the benefits. It’s not Liberterian, it would prevent you being a pirate, and you would never really be an island.
Night all.
The government has led us into such an appalling mess that I think even moderate Labour supporters have swung behind Corbyn - he could not possibly be worse and, hemmed in by a PLP with a moderate majority, he could well surprise on the upside.
Most Labour voters are also interested in the EU but reversing Brexit not preserving it, therein lies the problem for Labour candidates in Leave voting marginals which want to preserve Brexit
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904
Ironically he wanted it because he feared the Tory right might dump Cameron mid Parliament and call a snap election, thus shafting the Lib Dems.
No Brexiter should sign up to a Deal that surrenders tariff control to the EU, prevents third party trade deals, and requires paying the EU in the bargain.
No, it’s totally batshit.
The only option is May’s Deal, and if they cannot pass (and we’ve had three goes) then a majority exists in the House - and apparently in the country - for a confirmatory referendum on it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/jul/10/uk.eu
Iain Duncan Smith will today attack the "Labour lie" that the Tories want to withdraw from the European Union.
"The Conservative party does not want Britain to leave the EU," Mr Duncan Smith will say. "Anyone who says differently is telling a lie."
At last some comic relief to compensate for the past week.
Even if Brexit is defeated, it is vital for the future of the Tory Party, and the centre-right more broadly, that it is not an accessory. If May is the PM when we have a second vote or revoke, the party will split irretrievably, and Corbyn will win a handsome majority. This would not be in the national interest.
Are Grieve and his acolytes ready to put Corbyn in Downing Street as the price to stop Brexit? That is the question. It has been for the last 2 years.
When you disagree with it?
They've ensured a Corbyn premiership (via No Deal.)
[Victoria Wood voice] regardless how you voted, are you just sick to the back teeth with it like me and just wish someone would just hit a revoke button and be done with?
"The Quiet Man.... is TURNING UP THE VOLUME ! "
Followed by a standing ovation of Tories trying not to laugh, later followed up by interviews to the media saying "He's done as much as he can, and the party appreciates that."
Which will hurt the country far more than even a no deal Brexit.
Plus I have a feeling it will be easier to rejoin the EU than prise the marxists away from power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/05/how-john-mcdonnell-leading-surprise-rebirth-british-marxism
It’s Toad of Toad Hall. 😆
That’s a joke.
Don't say I don't spoil you all.
https://order-order.com/2019/03/26/mcdonnells-ten-point-treasury-takeover-plan/
be afraid.
She will go down fighting to deliver the referendum mandate. Corbyn will make us look back to her time in government with nostalgia.
Plus Corbyn should make appoint lawyers from Leigh Day to become Attorney General and Defence Secretary to keep the armed forces in check.
“We are not interested in reforming … the police, armed services, judiciary and monarchy. We are about dismantling them and replacing them with our own machinery of class rule.”
Some of these quotes are from rather a long time ago.
Peter Mandelson was also once in the Communist party, for instance.
The suggestion, by I believe, a Labour supporter, is that the leadership and PLP lines will be at odds with each other.
The C of Ex supplies the money shot.
It’s nearly 1 Sunday new time, I’m closing my eyes
God help us all.
To which you object with "Wouldn't count on it. The evidence is they are spineless followers."
To which I asked (rather snidely and pointedly) "When does following the party line make an MP a spineless follower? Is it when you (Matt) disagree with the party line?"
To which I'm not sure you have really responded.
But anyway, no harm done. It's late.
Really Labour's sleeper agents in the Conservative Party are doing a fantastic job, aren't they?
Am I right, or am I right?
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1112138686118936578