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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the latest from PB/Polling Matters the podcaster try to ans
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the latest from PB/Polling Matters the podcaster try to answer ” What’s going on and what do the public think?”
After a breath-taking week, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and look at the numbers. What do the public think about how Brexit is going, the prospect of no deal and where we go from here? Plus, if a General Election comes, who stands the best chance of winning?
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Had a path been chosen like Gove advised this would have all been much smoother.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/21/silent-assassin-strike-michael-gove-tipped-replace-theresa-may/
Ironically it praises Gove's anti-Corbyn speech which, just like Theresa May's, torpedoed the support he was supposed to be seeking, in his case that of Labour backbenchers. Gove is May in a suit and tie: he's right; you're wrong; any questions?
The EU had initially looked at solely offering an extension up until 22 May, the day before European elections would be held, on the condition May’s deal passed next week.
But it was a lack of confidence in the prime minister following her latest performance in front of the leaders that forced the EU’s member states to act to shore up against a no-deal Brexit and allow the British parliament time to take control.
May - who originally wanted a long extension before being turned over by her own Cabinet - is being forced back there. And Parliament now has time to take control and decide a plan,
'time to take control'
aka
'make their fecking minds up on how they circumvent the referendum result'.
They have said to May “no more can kicking”, and enforced it.
I see that .... nothing has changed.
It being quite clear that neither May nor Corbyn even begin to meet that description.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/mar/21/mindblowing-haul-of-fossils-over-500m-years-old-unearthed-in-china
Give would have faced just as many problems as May; they might have been different problems, but problems nonetheless.
And the reason the sides are so far apart? The leave campaigns who lied about Brexit, and promised everything to everyone.
It'd be good for leavers to take some responsibility instead of pathetically moaning: "If my person was in charge it would have been different!"
It would mean pissing off most people, but to a lesser extent overall than any other likely solution.
Was the 2017 GE won by a party promising to not implement Brexit?
If the May govt falls and is replaced at a General Election by one promising not to implement Brexit you'll have a case. Until then, not.
https://twitter.com/AnneABarker/status/1108961546074361857
Dear Angela,
I was wondering if by any chance you had stored that hard border that you used to have that worked east to west and whether it was capable of working north to south as well.
yours,
Leo
What WILL happen is that she'll lose MV3, the EU will go "what's your new plan" and she'll just...not answer. Probably mumble something about MV4. Then we'll largely be back to where we were a couple of days ago with nobody really knowing what the hell is happening.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108981933772541953
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/03/lord-ashcroft-how-the-united-kingdom-voted-on-eu-referendum-day-and-why.html
The question is what will they replace them with? Airbus have a massive backlog for their equivalent jet - nearly 6000 ordered but not delivered - and a relatively build rate of 63 a month.
According to Wiki, Gardua have 8 A320neo's on order, with six delivered - so at least they'll have some competency with the type. Or perhaps they've decided they don't need a replacement yet.
Edit, it seems they're looking at other Boeing models:
"The airline could switch the order, valued at $6 billion at list prices, to other Boeing models, Rizal told Reuters. He said negotiations with Boeing were ongoing and Airbus SE jets were not under consideration."
I think the EU deal does that - control of our laws & immigration (Leave voters top 2 motivations), while minimising the impact the consequences of that have on the economy (Remain voters #1 motivation).
What are the consequences of "no deal" that are problematic?
1. Clearly, there is a major issue in NI. Without any transitional agreement border checks are going to be required for goods entering and leaving the SM. Both sides might well turn a blind eye for a time but I don't see how we avoid this. I suspect we will in fact agree, as part of the mini deals, that tariffs are set at zero between the UK and the EU but even without that there are going to be regulatory issues. We will diminish these by unilaterally undertaking to ensure regulatory equivalence until something is worked out.
2. The useless incompetence of Fox means that we would lose the benefit of EU trade deals. Hardly anyone has yet agreed to bring in an equivalent. We will be scrabbling to catch up.
3.Both sides are likely to make unilateral decisions (in the EU on a country by country basis) to protect existing rights of citizens currently resident here but it is truly incredible how little has been done about this. Something like 4m people would need documentation. Again, I suspect in reality we are going to turn a blind eye to continued freedom of movement for at least a while because it is just too difficult given the lack of preparation.
4.The WA does not grant equivalence of regulation for financial services etc anyway but getting that into place is perhaps going to be more difficult.
5. Going forward, negotiations about our trade relationship with the EU are likely to be more difficult but much will depend on how much of the WA the UK government implements even without it being signed, especially in respect of payments, citizens' rights and the NI border.
So, not ideal, especially on 2, but not exactly the end of times either. In reality I suspect it will be little different from the transitional period disappointing both the ERG and those who are claiming this is going to be a calamity.
The tragedy lost in all of this is that this is a hell of a good deal for the UK. Indeed, arguably although it is only a Withdrawal Agreement, once it's passed we should stop negotiating and leave it. That way we're out of CAP, CFP, FM, CJEU, EUC and the rest of the alphabet soup, but still have free trade with Europe.
But unfortunately very few people have taken the trouble to read and understand it, so their views are shaped by politicians and journalists, most of whom are frankly pig ignorant and are merely shrieking their own prejudices rather than facts. This is especially true given that the most prominent politician outside the government is one of the most prejudiced as well as most ignorant men alive - and he cannot even make up his tiny mind whether he wants the deal, a referendum, or someone to suck his cock (bring your own microscope).
I know it's a cliché in every generation but we are really appallingly ill-served by our politicians right now - possibly as badly as at any time since the 1820s. It's deeply frustrating.
Garuda had a fleet review coming up so they may be making a virtue of a necessity - but as a passenger I prefer the 320 over the 737.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/crash-how-computers-are-setting-us-up-disaster
What would YOU have done differently?
Given how much Leavers bitch about all three you'd think that would be big wins.
But yes - the ERG loons have been idiots trashing the deal - and the government could have done a much better job of selling it.
Leavers continually assure us that it was not an anti-immigration platform. Let us hold them to that.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108988919721398272
Maybe that's something we can all agree on? If not, let's start on Chris Grayling.
Watched ITV News last night. Whoever thought to add to the catalogue of dire portmanteaus with 'Brextension' should be forced to watch 24 hours of Piers Morgan.
This is, in fact, the only reason why May's deal is still standing even though it keeps being voted down. Namely, it's still the only positive course of action available to us.
Sadly, very few politicians are bright enough to see that.
It's all in the polls...
Fortunately I only see No Deal lasting days, not months.
As it is, they’ve thrown a lifeline.
What I suspect this means is the deal will fail, and MPs will vote to take charge of the process. I suspect we will arrive at Customs Union 2.0. This in effect will cause the May government to fall - she is resilient, but I’m not sure she can survive donning completely different clothing to he past 2.5 years.
EU will grant an extension for leadership contest to take place, and thereafter the new Tory leader is likely to call a GE as they’re going to want a new mandate on Brexit.
I suspect we either see a harder/no deal Brexit in October-December this year (Tory victory, assuming a Brexiteer wins the leadership) or Corbyns alternative if he gets in.
But it is clear that MV3 is now a meaningless formality before we get to the real next step which is the indicative vote process already promised by government. May has nothing to gain from holding MV3 now, except for form, and there is a strong argument for not bringing it forward and going straight to the next step.
May has very effectively destroyed any semblance of such confidence.
To misquote F E Smith, it would be possible to say without fear of contradiction to say that the government is composed of the stupidest people in England, had we not frequent occasion to look at their Labour counterparts.
And May still can’t accept the fact, either.
The common factor is that ANY alternative to May's deal needs time, hence barring parliamentary deadlock we will be asking for the long extension that May already knows we need but was too weak to override her cabinet objections to ask for. The EU knows this also, hence the comments from the Belgian MEP.
https://twitter.com/davidtpegg/status/1108770497930641408
But the critics of the EU deal generally come up short what they would do differently and respect the result of the referendum.
Suggestions?
And moreover displays a great deal of goodwill on their part.
That's why, extraordinarily, the Tories are still value for the next election. Their next leader is (a) likely to get a honeymoon by not being May, (b) most unlikely to be completely crazy (c) will probably get a loud sigh of of relief from most of the PCP, unlike Labour where Corbyn continues to have the support of only about 25% of MPs and (d) will almost certainly call an immediate election. That's even leaving aside Labour's ongoing narrow support base which makes their vote very inefficient.
Whether that is a good thing for anybody is another question. Expect a wipeout in 2024 if this plays out and Labour finally come to their senses. But it still seems more plausible (sorry) than the alternatives.
The EU was acting in the EU's interest.
That is surely the point. The only deal which has a possibility of getting approved is one of settled status which leaves the UK free to change its mind (in either direction).
Norway fits that bill, and the WA does not. It promises Remainers only two years’ security... and we know how the more paranoid Brexiteers fell about it.
Anyway, all the statement last night will achieve is to push the Hard Brexit date back by a fortnight. Still, nothing substantial has changed.
Or just the bits of the result you like?
Have a good morning. Don't get too panicky about Brexit. Juncker may save us.
What have we come to when a tax-haven running cartel-loving piss artist who was sacked when his security forces were caught rigging elections is the voice of sanity?