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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Brexit betting – Monday March 11th 1404GMT

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619

    Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    Can't she do a Skype meeting or something?
    Not if she wants to grab him by the balls....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Do we reckon that the ERG are ready to accept they've pushed this as far as possible and will accept the latest fudge from Strasbourg? Massive pressure on the Tory Remainers if they do to do likewise.

    Even if they are does that give May a majority or a rather more respectable defeat?
    Depends how easilly the Labour MPs in Leave seats are bribed......
    Under other circumstances probably pretty easily but it is blindingly obvious that this Tory government is on the point of total collapse. .
    That's what such Labour MP's are worried about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    The fudge is on...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Well I am not clever enough to embedded the videos but Guido has a couple of official French Govt videos about the smart digital border they have implemented for 29th March. Electronic customs declarations, barcodes tied to number plates meaning no checks required and no delay at the border. As they say delay at the border means France is less attractive for businesses to use.

    It also shows it working UK to France which is interesting.

    How many ways can a lorry travel from France to the UK and vice versa compared to from Ireland to NI?
    It does not matter. Smugglers will smuggle, there is nothing in the French system stopping a lorry that is stuffed full of fags declaring on the electronic declaration that it is carrying plastic toys. Honest businesses will declare truthfully. Every country in Europe operates a trust system now with only 1% to 3% of third country imports being checked.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    My churchmanship might not be the same as Mrs May's, but wearing a hat in church - except at weddings - has always struck me as very bad form. Especially one like that. It says "look at me", which is hardly a very Protestant notion in a service context.
    It's probably because all the Royals are there.

    Still, a bloody awful hat, though.

    It is traditional for ladies to wear a hat in church
    Outside weddings and Mothering Sunday (and perhaps Easter, but I don't think so), I can honestly count the number of times I've seen anyone wearing hats like that to our church on the fingers of no hands. (Congregation of 100-120ish, middle-of-the-road Church of England, where I've been the organist for almost 20 years now.)
  • Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasborg

    Have enough of the ERG caved to make it worth the trip? Big question.
    Spelt Strasbourg incorrectly but on the wider point, TM is demonstrating she is attempting everything to get her deal and if the EU say 'non' again, public opinion is going to demand no deal more and more and to heck with the consequences

    I do not want this but this is heading to the last minute of the last moment on the 29th March
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    And, then he proceeds to dig a deeper and deeper pit for himself as the thread progresses.
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1105103902121316352
    Says one poster:-

    "That's pretty unfair. I'm sure Steve could fill a Pizza Express...…..if he announced a gig at the pub next door."
  • Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    Can't she do a Skype meeting or something?
    This is a very public display aimed at media coverage and putting the EU on the spot

    Whether it works time will tell
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    My churchmanship might not be the same as Mrs May's, but wearing a hat in church - except at weddings - has always struck me as very bad form. Especially one like that. It says "look at me", which is hardly a very Protestant notion in a service context.
    It's probably because all the Royals are there.

    Still, a bloody awful hat, though.

    It is traditional for ladies to wear a hat in church
    Outside weddings and Mothering Sunday (and perhaps Easter, but I don't think so), I can honestly count the number of times I've seen anyone wearing hats like that to our church on the fingers of no hands. (Congregation of 100-120ish, middle-of-the-road Church of England, where I've been the organist for almost 20 years now.)
    Irrespective, it is a nonsense to have a go at a hat. Brexit is not for triviality
  • Go for it Tom ( how times change cheering on Tom Watson)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    edited March 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    My churchmanship might not be the same as Mrs May's, but wearing a hat in church - except at weddings - has always struck me as very bad form. Especially one like that. It says "look at me", which is hardly a very Protestant notion in a service context.
    It's probably because all the Royals are there.

    Still, a bloody awful hat, though.

    It is traditional for ladies to wear a hat in church
    Outside weddings and Mothering Sunday (and perhaps Easter, but I don't think so), I can honestly count the number of times I've seen anyone wearing hats like that to our church on the fingers of no hands. (Congregation of 100-120ish, middle-of-the-road Church of England, where I've been the organist for almost 20 years now.)
    I remember Rowan Atkinson doing a brilliant sketch as Vicar about a full church when Songs of Praise was in town commenting on the remarkable number of new hats. Think it was on Not the Nine O'clock News.

    Edit, it was https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=not+the+9+o'clock+news+clips+songs+of+praise&view=detail&mid=C8FC91B92BB75E448048C8FC91B92BB75E448048&FORM=VIRE
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Good to see Steve Brookstein posting what he really thinks on twitter so people can make a fully informed choice about whether to go to his shows or not.
  • DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    My churchmanship might not be the same as Mrs May's, but wearing a hat in church - except at weddings - has always struck me as very bad form. Especially one like that. It says "look at me", which is hardly a very Protestant notion in a service context.
    It's probably because all the Royals are there.

    Still, a bloody awful hat, though.

    It is traditional for ladies to wear a hat in church
    Outside weddings and Mothering Sunday (and perhaps Easter, but I don't think so), I can honestly count the number of times I've seen anyone wearing hats like that to our church on the fingers of no hands. (Congregation of 100-120ish, middle-of-the-road Church of England, where I've been the organist for almost 20 years now.)
    I remember Rowan Atkinson doing a brilliant sketch as Vicar about a full church when Songs of Praise was in town commenting on the remarkable number of new hats. Think it was on Not the Nine O'clock News.
    As my wife says in the old days at the 'meeting' in Lossiemouth everyone wore a hat.

    Not so much today apparently
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. T, a real king would know it's the turnip that's most prized.

    es from my address book, as an arriviste.
    Can't you find a less obscure mini-tyrant to claim descent from?


    Well to be really classy you need the Quadruple Crown (Brian Boru, Llewellyn Iowerth, David II and Edward Longshanks - bonus points for Mark of Cornwall, although there is some doubt as to whether he actually existed) and the Three Saints (St. Louis of France, St. Edward the Confessor, and Mohammed).

    Fallen gods don't score highly - pretty much anyone can get there if they try.
    As far as I can see (its early days for me as I always thought of my family as mere humble tinning folk) if you can get a direct descent from the Conqueror then you can pretty much claim a descent from everywhere, as these royal lines are the only provable lineages, but they are multiple and clearly interlinked

    Anyway. Season 4 of Outlander, then maybe an episode of Vikings (also about my great grandfather Rollo and Ragnar) then sleep.

    Kapkap from bangers.
    My Dad traced our history back to some minor Welsh aristocrat, and hence (since these things are reasonably well-documented) to the Plantagenet kings. I was mildly excited by this, until some back of the envelope maths revealed that the chances of being of English heritage and NOT being descended from William the Conqueror - and indeed from every eleventh century Englishman with descendents - is infinitesimal I assume, on that basis, I have at least the Triple Crown - I certainly have English Scottish and Welsh descendants, to whom the same logic would apply. I don't know of any Irish ancestry but it would seem unlikely that there isn't any.
    But just as we are all descended from kings, we are all descended from far more peasants, vagabonds, ruffians and other ne'er-do-wells.
    Mores startlingly, though, we were able, via the same approach to trace our ancestry to the Dpanish artist Velasquez. But again, by the same logic, there will be millions in Britain for whom that is true.
    We all have William the Conqueror in our ancestry, but more of our genes will come from Hogg the Dung Cleaner, Ilbert the Pig Gelder, and Maud the Harlot of Grope Cunt Street.
    And those are just the ones you've been able to trace.
    Jane Austen is a distant removed aunt, and I've got up and down to the queen via an earl? Of Stoneleigh
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. L, it was, and it was fantastic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84SD8WcZIfI
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited March 2019

    Go for it Tom ( how times change cheering on Tom Watson)
    It shows how screwed up the Labour party currently is.

    Now I know (and like) Tom but he does seem to be winning due to the centralists (Cooper, Kendell, Benn) disappearing off the radar
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619


    I do not want this but this is heading to the last minute of the last moment on the 29th March

    That's how the EU works.....
  • Real Madrid swerved Mourinho for Zinedine Zadane
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:


    Well to be really classy you need the Quadruple Crown (Brian Boru, Llewellyn Iowerth, David II and Edward Longshanks - bonus points for Mark of Cornwall, although there is some doubt as to whether he actually existed) and the Three Saints (St. Louis of France, St. Edward the Confessor, and Mohammed).

    Fallen gods don't score highly - pretty much anyone can get there if they try.
    As far as I can see (its early days for me as I always thought of my family as mere humble tinning folk) if you can get a direct descent from the Conqueror then you can pretty much claim a descent from everywhere, as these royal lines are the only provable lineages, but they are multiple and clearly interlinked

    Anyway. Season 4 of Outlander, then maybe an episode of Vikings (also about my great grandfather Rollo and Ragnar) then sleep.

    Kapkap from bangers.
    My Dad traced our history back to some minor Welsh aristocrat, and hence (since these things are reasonably well-documented) to the Plantagenet kings. I was mildly excited by this, until some back of the envelope maths revealed that the chances of being of English heritage and NOT being descended from William the Conqueror - and indeed from every eleventh century Englishman with descendents - is infinitesimal I assume, on that basis, I have at least the Triple Crown - I certainly have English Scottish and Welsh descendants, to whom the same logic would apply. I don't know of any Irish ancestry but it would seem unlikely that there isn't any.
    But just as we are all descended from kings, we are all descended from far more peasants, vagabonds, ruffians and other ne'er-do-wells.
    Mores startlingly, though, we were able, via the same approach to trace our ancestry to the Dpanish artist Velasquez. But again, by the same logic, there will be millions in Britain for whom that is true.
    We all have William the Conqueror in our ancestry, but more of our genes will come from Hogg the Dung Cleaner, Ilbert the Pig Gelder, and Maud the Harlot of Grope Cunt Street.
    And those are just the ones you've been able to trace.
    Jane Austen is a distant removed aunt, and I've got up and down to the queen via an earl? Of Stoneleigh
    Jane Austen nearly lived in the house I grew up. She agreed to marry the owner (with the wonderful name of Edmund Bigwither) before thinking better of the idea of few days later and spurning him
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Real Madrid swerved Mourinho for Zinedine Zadane

    Given ManU with and after Mourinho I suspect he is going to spend a while trying to find his next team.
    Ole doing better with the same players doesn't do Mourinho's management style any favours.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I seem to recall tim saying that Paul Mason ex Newsnight wasn't a lefty loon, just someone the PB tories dislike..
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47529182/michelle-dewberry-and-paul-mason-on-divided-politics
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    eek said:

    Go for it Tom ( how times change cheering on Tom Watson)
    It shows how screwed up the Labour party currently is.

    Now I know (and like) Tom but he does seem to be winning due to the centralists (Cooper, Kendell, Benn) disappearing off the radar
    Cooper certainly hasn't disappeared. But Tom Watson has a unique advantage in that his post as Deputy Leader is secure for as long as he wants it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Afternoon all :)

    So it's going to be political brinkmanship and theatre at its best as the PM goes to the EU, gets rebuffed and turns on the defiance and blames the "nasty Europeans" in order to curry favour with the electorate.

    Cynical, pointless and humiliating from her.

    It's always the last card for the Conservatives - blame the Europeans, accuse them of intransigence, paint the PM as a victim, standing up for Britain etc, etc.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    My churchmanship might not be the same as Mrs May's, but wearing a hat in church - except at weddings - has always struck me as very bad form. Especially one like that. It says "look at me", which is hardly a very Protestant notion in a service context.
    It's probably because all the Royals are there.

    Still, a bloody awful hat, though.

    It is traditional for ladies to wear a hat in church and frankly, having open season on her over a hat is utterly irrelevant when it comes to the crisis we are in.

    Have a go at her on policy but why on earth bring it down to such utter irrelevance
    Mr Big G - the oceans will drain the day women stop having a go at other women about their hats, clothes, make-up, boyfriends etc.

    She normally chooses reasonable hats. Perhaps it is the angle. But it looks silly. Agree it is not as important as Brexit. But we can't be serious all the time - and a bit of playful bitchiness is not the most wicked sin in the world.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    Can't she do a Skype meeting or something?
    This is a very public display aimed at media coverage and putting the EU on the spot

    Whether it works time will tell
    This plane ride is hugely significant moment in British history.
    Ireland and May’s team have obviously brokered something big for her or else she wouldn’t be flying out so ostentatiously, because it would just put failure of negotiation up in lights if she came back empty handed or with something inconsequential. Fine Brexit news at last. 😊
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    dots said:

    Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    Can't she do a Skype meeting or something?
    This is a very public display aimed at media coverage and putting the EU on the spot

    Whether it works time will tell
    This plane ride is hugely significant moment in British history.
    Ireland and May’s team have obviously brokered something big for her or else she wouldn’t be flying out so ostentatiously, because it would just put failure of negotiation up in lights if she came back empty handed or with something inconsequential. Fine Brexit news at last. 😊
    Have you forgotten the first attempt to seal the phase one deal that was vetoed by the DUP while May was meeting Juncker?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    FWIW a big move upwards by Sterling against the Euro today, over a cent. Unfortunately I have lost track if that means the markets are pricing in a deal or a cancellation.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    dots said:

    Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    Can't she do a Skype meeting or something?
    This is a very public display aimed at media coverage and putting the EU on the spot

    Whether it works time will tell
    This plane ride is hugely significant moment in British history.
    Ireland and May’s team have obviously brokered something big for her or else she wouldn’t be flying out so ostentatiously, because it would just put failure of negotiation up in lights if she came back empty handed or with something inconsequential. Fine Brexit news at last. 😊
    You hope.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502


    I do not want this but this is heading to the last minute of the last moment on the 29th March

    That's how the EU works.....
    This myth seems to have grown but in relation to Greece it’s because it wanted to stay in the Eurozone and EU .

    It wasn’t a departing member , big difference .

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...
  • TGOHF said:
    If that is a 'diplomatic' comment then . . .
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So it's going to be political brinkmanship and theatre at its best as the PM goes to the EU, gets rebuffed and turns on the defiance and blames the "nasty Europeans" in order to curry favour with the electorate.

    Cynical, pointless and humiliating from her.

    It's always the last card for the Conservatives - blame the Europeans, accuse them of intransigence, paint the PM as a victim, standing up for Britain etc, etc.

    The reason why you are wrong with your bitter partisan post you don’t know exactly what May got from her weekend talking to brexiteers. My impression is, with the likes of David Davis saying he will back the deal pending seeing the detail of the third party backstop arrangement she has got, is when May signed off Britain’s deal with EU last year ERG opposition was more than just over the backstop, but its only backstop now preventing 140 ladders to drop and face to be saved, that’s what May knows from all her tête-à-têtes. To narrow such vociferous opposition down to just face saving detail on backstop for ERG is one hell of a victory. It’s a fine balance here, but there is an argument she has moved people and is winning.

    Its not a last minute trifle it weeks of negotiation with leavers over what they need as well as getting Dublin to go along with it. The deal announced this evening getting all but twenty brexiteers on board as well as about 30 labour MPs was ready all weekend but waiting on Cox. Now Cox is on board its legal tight and ready to go to the commons tomorrow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    Yanis Varoufakis was an extremely capable and distinguished professor of economics. Who the hell were they?

    Perhaps both failed because of arrogance.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I’d be happy with a deal . But not sure the ERG will sign upto any deal , they’ll find another excuse to vote against.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
  • DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    A member of the ERG said Geoffrey Cox was Brian Blessed with a law degree.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    A member of the ERG said Geoffrey Cox was Brian Blessed with a law degree.
    That doesn't even make the top 10 of bizarre things members of the ERG have said.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    A member of the ERG said Geoffrey Cox was Brian Blessed with a law degree.
    Is there a Brian Blessed with a medical degree out there, or a Brian Blessed with a degree in dentistry?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    dots said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So it's going to be political brinkmanship and theatre at its best as the PM goes to the EU, gets rebuffed and turns on the defiance and blames the "nasty Europeans" in order to curry favour with the electorate.

    Cynical, pointless and humiliating from her.

    It's always the last card for the Conservatives - blame the Europeans, accuse them of intransigence, paint the PM as a victim, standing up for Britain etc, etc.

    The reason why you are wrong with your bitter partisan post you don’t know exactly what May got from her weekend talking to brexiteers. My impression is, with the likes of David Davis saying he will back the deal pending seeing the detail of the third party backstop arrangement she has got, is when May signed off Britain’s deal with EU last year ERG opposition was more than just over the backstop, but its only backstop now preventing 140 ladders to drop and face to be saved, that’s what May knows from all her tête-à-têtes. To narrow such vociferous opposition down to just face saving detail on backstop for ERG is one hell of a victory. It’s a fine balance here, but there is an argument she has moved people and is winning.

    Its not a last minute trifle it weeks of negotiation with leavers over what they need as well as getting Dublin to go along with it. The deal announced this evening getting all but twenty brexiteers on board as well as about 30 labour MPs was ready all weekend but waiting on Cox. Now Cox is on board its legal tight and ready to go to the commons tomorrow.
    True, none of us know what last minute piece of face-saving theatricals will be dished up but we do know the allies and supporters of May will portray it as a great victory for her and for Britain (when it may well be a great victory for the EU, we'll see).

    I can already see the Mail, Express and Sun going into euphoric mood if the Deal passes tomorrow night but will it or is all this just a waste of everyone's time? We'll see but you seem to be a supporter of May so let's see how happy you are if the Deal is trashed tomorrow night - you can always blame everyone else from Corbyn to the Martians, that would be par for the course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    She needs all the votes she got the last time + 116. I don't think the ERG can provide that even if they were so minded (and they are frequently of more than one mind).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    A member of the ERG said Geoffrey Cox was Brian Blessed with a law degree.
    Is there a Brian Blessed with a medical degree out there, or a Brian Blessed with a degree in dentistry?
    The latter idea is quite a frightening thought. Dentists are bad enough.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Does Cox want the top job? If he pulls this off, surely he’s worth a punt?
  • Sky - TM just left to meet Juncker's in Strasbourg

    Can't she do a Skype meeting or something?
    She likes a little juncket
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jonathan said:

    Does Cox want the top job? If he pulls this off, surely he’s worth a punt?

    A foxhunting PM ? That would have almond milk lattes splattering over i-Macs the length and breadth of Islington.

  • DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    A member of the ERG said Geoffrey Cox was Brian Blessed with a law degree.
    Is there a Brian Blessed with a medical degree out there, or a Brian Blessed with a degree in dentistry?
    If my mother had her way I would have been Brian Blessed with a medical degree.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    Does Cox want the top job? If he pulls this off, surely he’s worth a punt?

    A foxhunting PM ? That would have almond milk lattes splattering over i-Macs the length and breadth of Islington.

    It's not the most compelling reason but its a start.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I don't think they have anything to worry about
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    dixiedean said:

    Curious snippet in Guardian Live blog. PM was ready to agree a tweaked deal on Saturday, but was "over ruled by London."
    Who the heck can overrule the PM?

    The cabinet.

    Or, in effect, members of it with sufficient seniority that it amounts to the same thing.
    Cox wasnt comfortable but is now.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF said:
    Insulting your counterparts in personal terms?

    How sophisticated.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    A member of the ERG said Geoffrey Cox was Brian Blessed with a law degree.
    Is there a Brian Blessed with a medical degree out there, or a Brian Blessed with a degree in dentistry?
    Is a dentistry degree really that much of a blessing?

    If so, then probably yes to both. There are quite a lot of Brians out there.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    ... the ERG ... are frequently of more than one mind.
    Or fewer.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    That may well be true. But he does come across as very English. His style may not be something that travels well. Different legal traditions etc.

    I remember the first time I had to appear before the AMF at a public hearing. I was astonished at the way the French lawyers presented their case which would never have lasted 2 minutes in front of most English or Scottish judges. Not saying that one is wrong and the other right. But what may seem OK to one may seem bafflingly eccentric to others. Good advocacy is as much about understanding your audience and how to tailor your style to your particular audience. I've no idea how much experience he has of dealing with Commission officials.

    Anyway, let's see.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:
    My churchmanship might not be the same as Mrs May's, but wearing a hat in church - except at weddings - has always struck me as very bad form. Especially one like that. It says "look at me", which is hardly a very Protestant notion in a service context.
    It's probably because all the Royals are there.

    Still, a bloody awful hat, though.

    It is traditional for ladies to wear a hat in church
    Outside weddings and Mothering Sunday (and perhaps Easter, but I don't think so), I can honestly count the number of times I've seen anyone wearing hats like that to our church on the fingers of no hands. (Congregation of 100-120ish, middle-of-the-road Church of England, where I've been the organist for almost 20 years now.)
    Irrespective, it is a nonsense to have a go at a hat. Brexit is not for triviality
    It's no more a triviality than your frequent complaints about swearing. We're allowed our little bugbears, I think
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    SeanT said:

    OK, here’s a contrarian position: if Britain does leave the EU (and I still think we will) it will be the most extraordinary act of democratic, national self-determination in decades, by any major power.

    We will have done what every other EU nation has singularly failed to do: honoured a referendum, stood up to “the elite”, defied the EU Commission and the Bullies of Brussels. We will do this knowing it harms us, but we do it because we ARE a democracy, and this is how we voted. And WE DO NOT IGNORE THE VOTERS.

    In that light, Brexit is not a “national humiliation”, for all its farce and pain and tedium. It is a national vindication. It is an apotheosis. It is, potentially, and democratically, our Finest Hour. In the end, a country said NO, and that country was Britain. Of course.

    I have had one and a half martinis.

    You are right in that remainers are the big losers. They lost in 2016 and have no grounds for appeal. But you are not getting away with that post.
    Don’t recall we must self harm being part of the leave manifesto. You saying it was not narrowly won on promise of being better off, with the whopping Brexit dividend to hard pressed communities, services, households?
    Whether brexit is right wrong, good or bad, we will find out as its certain to happen. But if both campaigns fought sensibly and told the truth a narrow leave victory would never have happened, it was down to brexit dividend, not self harm and poorer.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    Does Cox want the top job? If he pulls this off, surely he’s worth a punt?

    A foxhunting PM ? That would have almond milk lattes splattering over i-Macs the length and breadth of Islington.

    That was Cameron (the Heythrop I think)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/16/exclusive-david-cameron-takes-shooting-decade-leading-conservative/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    Failed politicians.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Neil Kinnock at Tom Watson's "Tomentum" meeting.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105158601096736769
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Apparently Mays talks with Juncker are in the Winston Churchill building !

    I can see tomorrows front pages already !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Neil Kinnock at Tom Watson's "Tomentum" meeting.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105158601096736769

    Shadow ministers, surely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    Neil Kinnock at Tom Watson's "Tomentum" meeting.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105158601096736769

    Shadow ministers, surely.
    LOL 12 current ministers would be a scoop indeed!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2019
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    She needs all the votes she got the last time + 116. I don't think the ERG can provide that even if they were so minded (and they are frequently of more than one mind).
    ERG alone can't.

    ERG + DUP can get it very close.

    If it gets that close there must be at least a few opposition MPs prepared to put the national interest ahead of partisan politics and see this over the line.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:
    God these people. Geoffrey Cox QC is an extremely capable and competent barrister who has run a very successful practice for over 30 years. Who the hell are they?
    That may well be true. But he does come across as very English. His style may not be something that travels well. Different legal traditions etc.

    I remember the first time I had to appear before the AMF at a public hearing. I was astonished at the way the French lawyers presented their case which would never have lasted 2 minutes in front of most English or Scottish judges. Not saying that one is wrong and the other right. But what may seem OK to one may seem bafflingly eccentric to others. Good advocacy is as much about understanding your audience and how to tailor your style to your particular audience. I've no idea how much experience he has of dealing with Commission officials.

    Anyway, let's see.
    For us non legal types, what are the main differences ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    Does Cox want the top job? If he pulls this off, surely he’s worth a punt?

    A foxhunting PM ? That would have almond milk lattes splattering over i-Macs the length and breadth of Islington.

    Didn't Cam like the odd outing with hunts? Of course nowadays he tends to get the Brexit frothers spilling their good, honest British tea.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    But damage to the national economic wellbeing was certainly part of the Remain campaign from the Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England down. The government even ensured that every voter was personally served with a document setting out just how bad for our financial health leaving would be.
    Even then, the majority of voters chose Leave, so to argue now that they weren't warned and didn't make their choice with full knowledge is simply wrong.
    dots said:

    SeanT said:

    OK, here’s a contrarian position: if Britain does leave the EU (and I still think we will) it will be the most extraordinary act of democratic, national self-determination in decades, by any major power.

    We will have done what every other EU nation has singularly failed to do: honoured a referendum, stood up to “the elite”, defied the EU Commission and the Bullies of Brussels. We will do this knowing it harms us, but we do it because we ARE a democracy, and this is how we voted. And WE DO NOT IGNORE THE VOTERS.

    In that light, Brexit is not a “national humiliation”, for all its farce and pain and tedium. It is a national vindication. It is an apotheosis. It is, potentially, and democratically, our Finest Hour. In the end, a country said NO, and that country was Britain. Of course.

    I have had one and a half martinis.

    You are right in that remainers are the big losers. They lost in 2016 and have no grounds for appeal. But you are not getting away with that post.
    Don’t recall we must self harm being part of the leave manifesto. You saying it was not narrowly won on promise of being better off, with the whopping Brexit dividend to hard pressed communities, services, households?
    Whether brexit is right wrong, good or bad, we will find out as its certain to happen. But if both campaigns fought sensibly and told the truth a narrow leave victory would never have happened, it was down to brexit dividend, not self harm and poorer.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    SeanT said:

    OK, here’s a contrarian position: if Britain does leave the EU (and I still think we will) it will be the most extraordinary act of democratic, national self-determination in decades, by any major power.

    We will have done what every other EU nation has singularly failed to do: honoured a referendum, stood up to “the elite”, defied the EU Commission and the Bullies of Brussels. We will do this knowing it harms us, but we do it because we ARE a democracy, and this is how we voted. And WE DO NOT IGNORE THE VOTERS.

    In that light, Brexit is not a “national humiliation”, for all its farce and pain and tedium. It is a national vindication. It is an apotheosis. It is, potentially, and democratically, our Finest Hour. In the end, a country said NO, and that country was Britain. Of course.

    I have had one and a half martinis.

    Pints?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    MaxPB said:

    Neil Kinnock at Tom Watson's "Tomentum" meeting.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105158601096736769

    Shadow ministers, surely.
    LOL 12 current ministers would be a scoop indeed!
    Labour "committing" to another referendum has busted the anti-Corbyn flush with the membership I think.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    She needs all the votes she got the last time + 116. I don't think the ERG can provide that even if they were so minded (and they are frequently of more than one mind).
    ERG alone can't.

    ERG + DUP can get it very close.

    If it gets that close there must be at least a few opposition MPs prepared to put the national interest ahead of partisan politics and see this over the line.
    How many Con MPs would vote against the deal now the Tiggers have left ? Ken Clarke and Grieve ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    I can well believe this, and it's why we are so screwed.

    The MV2 any chance of losing by less than 100 yet, or are we still looking at around 200?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    She needs all the votes she got the last time + 116. I don't think the ERG can provide that even if they were so minded (and they are frequently of more than one mind).
    ERG alone can't.

    ERG + DUP can get it very close.

    If it gets that close there must be at least a few opposition MPs prepared to put the national interest ahead of partisan politics and see this over the line.
    If the deal is acceptable to the ERG and DUP then I expect it will manage to get over the line.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    nico67 said:

    Apparently Mays talks with Juncker are in the Winston Churchill building !

    I can see tomorrows front pages already !

    'My dear, your deal is ugly, but tomorrow I shall be sober and your deal will still be ugly':
  • Real Madrid swerved Mourinho for Zinedine Zadane

    And Poch too :)
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .

    As enough brexiteers such as David Davis indicated he wants to support the deal and explained privately to May what he needs to save face, what you describe here is all about 120 of them need. This 120 will be joined by 30+ Labour MPs tomorrow as May’s withdraw agreement looks set to pass comfortably.

    If bets on leaving specified end of March (I know at least one poster up to their balls in such a bet) they are still on in my opinion as needing a few extra weeks to pass the legal formalities might not be needed, the financial side of things dont kick in till 18th April so finance legislation cant hold up brexit partying at end of th month.

    Anyone excited by leaving should Start thinking about how to celebrate tomark the occasion.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    She needs all the votes she got the last time + 116. I don't think the ERG can provide that even if they were so minded (and they are frequently of more than one mind).
    ERG alone can't.

    ERG + DUP can get it very close.

    If it gets that close there must be at least a few opposition MPs prepared to put the national interest ahead of partisan politics and see this over the line.
    How many Con MPs would vote against the deal now the Tiggers have left ? Ken Clarke and Grieve ?
    Clarke voted for the deal
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The word on the street is that May is going to offer the EU zombo.com

    http://zombo.com/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Real Madrid swerved Mourinho for Zinedine Zadane

    And Poch too :)
    :+1:
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    In that light, Brexit is not a “national humiliation”, for all its farce and pain and tedium. It is a national vindication. It is an apotheosis. It is, potentially, and democratically, our Finest Hour. In the end, a country said NO, and that country was Britain. Of course.

    Later, as he sat on his balcony eating the dog, SeanT reflected on the unusual events that had taken place within this great nation the previous three years.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Remainers seem angry that a deal might be in the air...

    I thought a deal would be reached but now I feel Parliament has destroyed any hope of that.

    Any rumours of deals in the air I won't hold my breath over. Until something is confirmed, best to believe that "nothing has changed".
    She needs all the votes she got the last time + 116. I don't think the ERG can provide that even if they were so minded (and they are frequently of more than one mind).
    ERG alone can't.

    ERG + DUP can get it very close.

    If it gets that close there must be at least a few opposition MPs prepared to put the national interest ahead of partisan politics and see this over the line.
    How many Con MPs would vote against the deal now the Tiggers have left ? Ken Clarke and Grieve ?
    Clarke voted for the deal
    Yes, if the deal looks like going through then I expect Clark and Grieve to do their duty one last time before announcing they won't be standing again at the coming (2019) election.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Importers can now apply for tickets for the emergency no deal ferries . The products have to be on the critical list though . These are the ones critical for human and animal welfare .

    A country in peacetime doing this . Truly absurd that a government would choose to put its own country through this .

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    dots said:

    nico67 said:

    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .

    As enough brexiteers such as David Davis indicated he wants to support the deal and explained privately to May what he needs to save face, what you describe here is all about 120 of them need. This 120 will be joined by 30+ Labour MPs tomorrow as May’s withdraw agreement looks set to pass comfortably.

    If bets on leaving specified end of March (I know at least one poster up to their balls in such a bet) they are still on in my opinion as needing a few extra weeks to pass the legal formalities might not be needed, the financial side of things dont kick in till 18th April so finance legislation cant hold up brexit partying at end of th month.

    Anyone excited by leaving should Start thinking about how to celebrate tomark the occasion.
    Don't toy with viewcode's heart like that
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    nico67 said:

    Importers can now apply for tickets for the emergency no deal ferries . The products have to be on the critical list though . These are the ones critical for human and animal welfare .

    A country in peacetime doing this . Truly absurd that a government would choose to put its own country through this .

    Blame the ERG and Labour. There is a deal on the table to avoid the situation.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    Does Cox want the top job? If he pulls this off, surely he’s worth a punt?

    A foxhunting PM ? That would have almond milk lattes splattering over i-Macs the length and breadth of Islington.

    It's not the most compelling reason but its a start.
    It really isn’t.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    dots said:

    nico67 said:

    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .

    As enough brexiteers such as David Davis indicated he wants to support the deal and explained privately to May what he needs to save face, what you describe here is all about 120 of them need. This 120 will be joined by 30+ Labour MPs tomorrow as May’s withdraw agreement looks set to pass comfortably.

    If bets on leaving specified end of March (I know at least one poster up to their balls in such a bet) they are still on in my opinion as needing a few extra weeks to pass the legal formalities might not be needed, the financial side of things dont kick in till 18th April so finance legislation cant hold up brexit partying at end of th month.

    Anyone excited by leaving should Start thinking about how to celebrate tomark the occasion.
    Celebrating . What the end of a 45 year relationship and the end of freedom of movement for many who will no longer have that chance . I’ll be staying well away from the coverage . Seeing the flag lowered and removed from the EU Parliament will be very sad. Will any Leavers at that point have a tinge of regret .
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    nico67 said:

    dots said:

    nico67 said:

    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .

    As enough brexiteers such as David Davis indicated he wants to support the deal and explained privately to May what he needs to save face, what you describe here is all about 120 of them need. This 120 will be joined by 30+ Labour MPs tomorrow as May’s withdraw agreement looks set to pass comfortably.

    If bets on leaving specified end of March (I know at least one poster up to their balls in such a bet) they are still on in my opinion as needing a few extra weeks to pass the legal formalities might not be needed, the financial side of things dont kick in till 18th April so finance legislation cant hold up brexit partying at end of th month.

    Anyone excited by leaving should Start thinking about how to celebrate tomark the occasion.
    Celebrating . What the end of a 45 year relationship and the end of freedom of movement for many who will no longer have that chance . I’ll be staying well away from the coverage . Seeing the flag lowered and removed from the EU Parliament will be very sad. Will any Leavers at that point have a tinge of regret .
    Nope.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    And Rachael of Swindon actually remembers this?

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1105175795247603712
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Baron Plunkett present, Paging @Anazina, one of my Tom's nickname is "Plunkers" !

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1105167062035513345
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    This trip to Srasbourg had better be a carefully choroegraphed theatre where a deal worked out well in advance is produced to make it look like May has won at the last minute. If she comes back empty handed we might as well paint her arse green and use her as a traffic light.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    dots said:

    nico67 said:

    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .

    As enough brexiteers such as David Davis indicated he wants to support the deal and explained privately to May what he needs to save face, what you describe here is all about 120 of them need. This 120 will be joined by 30+ Labour MPs tomorrow as May’s withdraw agreement looks set to pass comfortably.

    If bets on leaving specified end of March (I know at least one poster up to their balls in such a bet) they are still on in my opinion as needing a few extra weeks to pass the legal formalities might not be needed, the financial side of things dont kick in till 18th April so finance legislation cant hold up brexit partying at end of th month.

    Anyone excited by leaving should Start thinking about how to celebrate tomark the occasion.
    Celebrating . What the end of a 45 year relationship and the end of freedom of movement for many who will no longer have that chance . I’ll be staying well away from the coverage . Seeing the flag lowered and removed from the EU Parliament will be very sad. Will any Leavers at that point have a tinge of regret .
    Yes. I will regret that the EU was so intransigent with Cameron that it came to this.

    Will anyone in the EU regret that?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    nico67 said:

    dots said:

    nico67 said:

    More faux drama for the plebs to believe May is battling for Britain .

    The deals been done already . May isn’t going to come back empty handed . There’s no unilateral exit or end date this deal is around the arbitration panel and some extra legal assurances via a joint interpretative instrument .

    As enough brexiteers such as David Davis indicated he wants to support the deal and explained privately to May what he needs to save face, what you describe here is all about 120 of them need. This 120 will be joined by 30+ Labour MPs tomorrow as May’s withdraw agreement looks set to pass comfortably.

    If bets on leaving specified end of March (I know at least one poster up to their balls in such a bet) they are still on in my opinion as needing a few extra weeks to pass the legal formalities might not be needed, the financial side of things dont kick in till 18th April so finance legislation cant hold up brexit partying at end of th month.

    Anyone excited by leaving should Start thinking about how to celebrate tomark the occasion.
    Celebrating . What the end of a 45 year relationship and the end of freedom of movement for many who will no longer have that chance . I’ll be staying well away from the coverage . Seeing the flag lowered and removed from the EU Parliament will be very sad. Will any Leavers at that point have a tinge of regret .
    If they haven't already broken down after hearing from Roger and SO about how rich retirees are going to find it a bit harder to relocate to Spain, they must have hearts of stone
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pulpstar said:

    Baron Plunkett present, Paging @Anazina, one of my Tom's nickname is "Plunkers" !

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1105167062035513345

    Presumably the feline Tom is pulling strings behind the scenes?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Pulpstar said:

    Baron Plunkett present, Paging @Anazina, one of my Tom's nickname is "Plunkers" !

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1105167062035513345

    A list of people with no "social base" apparently...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    MaxPB said:

    Neil Kinnock at Tom Watson's "Tomentum" meeting.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105158601096736769

    Shadow ministers, surely.
    •Lord Mandelson
    . Neil Kinnock
    •Baron Plunkett
    •Lord Kinnock
    •Baroness Kennedy
    .Glynis Kinnock
    •Lord Harris
    . Lord Splattersley
    . Lord Kinnocks Butler
    •Lord Hain
    . The Welsh Windbag
    •Lord Adonis
    •Baroness Kinnock
    •Lord Kinnock
    •S. Kinnock MP
    •Baron Winston
    ' Tom Watson
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I was going to say he's lost it, but he never had it I am sure. What a pile of old wank that statement is; there are many and varied reasons to think the deal is bad, that is not one of them.
This discussion has been closed.