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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM: The Tories would be on 40 pc three ahead of LAB if Mag
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM: The Tories would be on 40 pc three ahead of LAB if Maggie was leader
Pie chart showing ICM finding of how people would vote if Maggie was leader twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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So George leading the welfare debate sees his ratings improve and the Tories improve.
More George please?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Il-sung
Churchill was a double turncoat.
The Lib Dems would hate him.
Dangerous for party unity for the idea that their problems would be solved if only they had a different leader to be established.
The equivalent monthly poll in April 2009 had the Conservatives on 40%, Labour on 30% and the Liberal Democrats on 19% so that's an 8% swing from Conservative to Labour. That produced 38% for the Tories, 28% for the Lib Dems and 23% for Labour in the following month's voting.
For UKIP.
God will respond only after taking advice from Ted Heath..
I wouldn't of thought the LDs had any enthusiasm left to lose. You encourage me!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100212162/the-developing-world-has-turned-thatcherite-no-wonder-its-overtaking-us/
http://sg.sports.yahoo.com/video/cat-invades-pitch-dutch-league-122950978.html
It is surprising to see the Lib Dem>Con shift. Perhaps hints at just how Rightwing many remaining Lib Dems are.
This is true - but Labour had a booming economy and Blair. Cameron is no Blair but he's at least keeping the blues in the 30s, which will be good if it lasts until late 2014.
And Labour won't poll in the high 30s come 2015.
That Labour is 12 and 10% points lower than the same point in the two electoral cycles when they were most recently in opposition, not the sole opposition party and facing a working class Tory leader simply doesn't compute for tim.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03412914-a5b8-11e2-9b77-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2QWXkhWDa
"Nothing has done more to poison the Conservative party’s bond with ordinary voters in recent decades than its reputation as a defender of entrenched wealth. By background and temperament, senior Tories are more at home in Davos than with small, scrappy entrepreneurs. Voters can smell this intimacy with elites; in an anti-establishment age, it is toxic. The Conservatives cannot win elections as the party of bankers and utility fat-cats.
The party’s future lies in a popular capitalism that aggressively backs the consumer and the entrepreneur over the cartel and the state. Tories must be pro-market, not pro-business."
"The Conservatives cannot assume that anti-corporatism is a cause that belongs unambiguously to the right. On the surface, Ed Miliband is a union-backed Labour party leader flirting unwisely with worker representation on company boards and other ideas evocative of the 1970s. But he is also readier than Tony Blair or Gordon Brown ever were to acknowledge that markets sometimes result in monopoly, that bigness in economic life can harm consumers individually and the system as a whole. If there is to be a capitalism of the little guy, he will challenge the Tories for ownership of the idea."
ICM April 2012
ICM April 2013
33/41/15/3
32/38/15/9
Averages since and including April 2012
32/40/14/6
If you are saying that Labour is less popular than it was in 1995 and the Tories are more popular, then I agree. But that means very little. Labour does not need to win a landslide and the Tories have to be several points in front of Labour to have a chance of winning in 2015.
It's baffling why the Tories insist on being the party of big business and the super-rich. Trickle-down was discredited last century.
Is it really beyond them to start building a modern one-nation (yuck) style Tory party, that looks after the little guy, the striver, the business start up, rather than the media mogul, the millionaire, the CEO of a monopoly?
Personally I suspect a lot of it is down to the ongoing Thatcher addiction amongst the Tory Party. They can't let go of her or her ways.
Abba's Benny Andersson and Bjorn Ulvaeus are set to write an anthem for this year's Eurovision Song Contest, organisers have announced.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-22152995
So, there is no hope then.
Hope to see you on Friday at DD's.
Without the adjustment you highlight they would not have been the top pollster in 2010 when everybody was understating Labour.
Populus and Survation also use this approach.
ComRes have something similar asking the DKs "which party you most associate with" and adding 100% of the responses to the voting totals.
The equivalent monthly poll in April 2009 had the Conservatives on 40%, Labour on 30% and the Liberal Democrats on 19% so that's an 8% swing from Conservative to Labour. That produced 38% for the Tories, 28% for the Lib Dems and 23% for Labour in the following month's voting.
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Hi Stodge , no it didn't . The actual vote shares in the 2009 locals were Con 43 LD 24 Lab 14 , your figures are the notional national projected figures .
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@stodge
"That produced 38% for the Tories, 28% for the Lib Dems and 23% for Labour in the following month's voting."
This would mean something like a 10% swing to Labour from CON if current national polls are reflected on 2nd May.
It does still mean about a 4% swing from LD to CON.
Government 51% (!!!)
Labour 37%
What were the LSE students doing in North Korea by the way? Libya not good enough for them anymore? Maybe they were teaching the psycho fatboy how to screw up his country even more than it is already.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/twelve_month.stm
Did getting rid of Maggie really make that much difference? It looks to me as though it just increased a trend that was already well under way?
Have I got news for you on Friday with Brian Blessed = lol
The part in which I keep laughing at,starts at 08.47 = lol
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01ry872/Have_I_Got_News_for_You_Series_45_Episode_2/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21828547
Links to council websites.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE&om=true&richtext=false#gid=0
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-04-15/explosion-at-boston-marathon/
8:30pm, BBC1.
As treasurer of the 1922 Committee, he presided over the voting in Committee Room 11. At 5pm, the chairman, Cranley Onslow, ordered the door to be shut and counting to begin. After several recounts, the committee realised to its horror that it was missing 12 ballot papers.
My father, one of the smallest members of the House, noticed several ballots that had fallen under the table. Committee members went on hands and knees in a frantic search. The atmosphere of mild panic grew more tense with mysterious loud bleeps from Sir Bernard Braine, whose two hearing aids objected in shrill tones to the change in altitude.
Outside the room, the world’s media and MPs were growing impatient. Eventually the committee found the missing ballots: two were for Thatcher, 10 for Heseltine.
My younger brother is living there, I hope he isn't mixed up in it. (Apologies for being nepotistic for a moment).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22160691
I hope everyone's okay. It seems rather pointless to say much more or speculate at this stage.
http://www.cbsnews.com/
O/T: Back in Parliament today, lobbying MPs over this:
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/from-the-day-job/
I picked up a briefing from the Parliamentary research office. Is it generally known that support for councils is being cut by 33% by 2015 (compared with 8% for central government spending predictions)? I wonder if county candidates realise just how rough it's gonig to be.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9995208/Vince-Cable-says-he-didnt-mean-to-attack-One-Direction-after-branding-their-pay-immoral.html
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2013/04/watch-bernard-ingham-if-thatcher-hadnt-succeeded-britain-would-be-like-russia.html
SeanT: don't make an ass of yourself. You may be right, but we don't know. It could be homegrown terrorists - America's produced enough of those in the past, or any number of other groups or individuals.