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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    RobD said:

    I mean, using the term coloured probably isn't as bad as deporting people just because they're black, but unfortunately for Amber Rudd she's done both of these things but only said shes mortified about one

    Rudd has deported people just for being black?
    Were there White Windrushers?
    Only in Game of Thrones.

    Seriously though, your point only stands if there were black non-Windrushers deported.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    If May is a unifier then Trump should get the Nobel Peace Prize.

    She has done zip to bring the country together . She insulted Remainers by calling them citizens of nowhere , called EU nationals queue jumpers , refused to criticize the press when it was parading judges and some MPs as enemies of the people . A horrible nasty woman who should be nowhere near no 10.

    Don't hold back, nico67! Tell us what you really feel!
    Lmao! I was actually being reserved ! I was worried I might get banned !
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    RobD said:

    I mean, using the term coloured probably isn't as bad as deporting people just because they're black, but unfortunately for Amber Rudd she's done both of these things but only said shes mortified about one

    Rudd has deported people just for being black?
    Were there White Windrushers?
    Don't know. Though plenty of white people get deported.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    It's now four months since the plan to sell the government's deal leaked. It seems like a lifetime ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46109889
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    I see the Irish Times has a poll on Irish Unification in Northern Ireland, 32% in favour, 45% against.

    Both the DUP and Sinn Fein are very poorly rated, but that won't stop them from winning 60%+ of the vote.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Sean_F said:

    I see the Irish Times has a poll on Irish Unification in Northern Ireland, 32% in favour, 45% against.

    Wonder what the figures are in the Republic...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    justin124 said:

    kfowkes said:

    justin124 said:

    Panelbase, 2nd-6th March
    Holyrood List:

    SNP - 36% (-2)
    Con - 26% (nc)
    Lab - 19% (-3)
    Lib Dem - 9% (+2)
    Green - 6% (nc)

    UKIP - 3% (+2)

    Holyrood Constituency:

    SNP - 41% (nc)
    Con - 27% (+2)
    Lab - 19% (-4)
    Lib Dem - 8% (+2)
    Green - 3% (nc)
    UKIP - 2% (+1)

    Westminster:

    SNP - 37% (nc)
    Con - 27% (+1)
    Lab - 22% (-4)
    Lib Dem - 7% (+1)
    Green - 2% (nc)
    UKIP - 2% (nc)
    TIG - 2% (+2)


    The fall in Labour's vote looks in line with what has happened across GB in recent weeks. 22% in a Westminster election remains well above the levels reached in April/May 2017 and not very different to what polls were recording in the later stages of the election campaign. If Labour picks up again nationally in the coming months 30% in Scotland becomes a realistic expectation at the next Westminster election.

    Yes in an immediate GE Labour would probably only hold Edinburgh S and possibly East Lothian and Coatbridge as well.

    The residual 20% Labour vote in Scotland looks pretty hardcore though as the May 2017 local elections showed when Labour only got just over 20% of the vote but was still competitive with the SNP in working class parts of Fife, Lothians, Lanarkshire and Inverclyde.

    The main challenge for Slab will be keeping on the board the soft SNP/Green votes who are sympathetic to Indy (but is not necessarily an overriding concern on a GEG who voted strategically for Corbyn while trying to appeal to older working class voters who are less keen on the SNPs EU stance etc at the same time.
    I agree with most of that and suspect that Labour will derive comfort from SNP support remaining at 37%. A strong Labour performance next time should be able to push that down to circa 33%.
    33% would be very bad for the SNP under FPTP.
  • Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
    If someone says they don't like or respect Christianity that could trigger a very interesting philosophical/theological debate.

    If someone says they don't like or respect Islam/Judaism that will likely trigger accusations of racism and a likely unpleasant conversation.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    It's now four months since the plan to sell the government's deal leaked. It seems like a lifetime ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46109889

    It seems not to have aged very well...…..
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The DUP should just support a soft Brexit and then they can ditch the backstop . Their bluff needs to be called .
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    kfowkes said:

    justin124 said:

    Panelbase, 2nd-6th March
    Holyrood List:

    SNP - 36% (-2)
    Con - 26% (nc)
    Lab - 19% (-3)
    Lib Dem - 9% (+2)
    Green - 6% (nc)

    UKIP - 3% (+2)

    Holyrood Constituency:

    SNP - 41% (nc)
    Con - 27% (+2)
    Lab - 19% (-4)
    Lib Dem - 8% (+2)
    Green - 3% (nc)
    UKIP - 2% (+1)

    Westminster:

    SNP - 37% (nc)
    Con - 27% (+1)
    Lab - 22% (-4)
    Lib Dem - 7% (+1)
    Green - 2% (nc)
    UKIP - 2% (nc)
    TIG - 2% (+2)


    The fall in Labour's vote looks in line with what has happened across GB in recent weeks. 22% in a Westminster election remains well above the levels reached in April/May 2017 and not very different to what polls were recording in the later stages of the election campaign. If Labour picks up again nationally in the coming months 30% in Scotland becomes a realistic expectation at the next Westminster election.

    Yes in an immediate GE Labour would probably only hold Edinburgh S and possibly East Lothian and Coatbridge as well.

    The residual 20% Labour vote in Scotland looks pretty hardcore though as the May 2017 local elections showed when Labour only got just over 20% of the vote but was still competitive with the SNP in working class parts of Fife, Lothians, Lanarkshire and Inverclyde.

    The main challenge for Slab will be keeping on the board the soft SNP/Green votes who are sympathetic to Indy (but is not necessarily an overriding concern on a GEG who voted strategically for Corbyn while trying to appeal to older working class voters who are less keen on the SNPs EU stance etc at the same time.
    I agree with most of that and suspect that Labour will derive comfort from SNP support remaining at 37%. A strong Labour performance next time should be able to push that down to circa 33%.
    33% would be very bad for the SNP under FPTP.
    Indeed it would.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
    If someone says they don't like or respect Christianity that could trigger a very interesting philosophical/theological debate.

    If someone says they don't like or respect Islam/Judaism that will likely trigger accusations of racism and a likely unpleasant conversation.
    It's complicated by Jews being both a race and a religion. It's hard (though not impossible) to express dislike for Judaism without expressing dislike for Jews, or at least, for people to suspect one's motives.

  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    Info here: https://twitter.com/GarySpedding/status/1103692016997806080

    Winstanley seems quite well informed and appears to be correct about JLM being involved with the Israeli embassy or at least certain individuals within such as Ella Rose and as a proxy for anti Corbyn factionalism but his latest claims about the 'refounding' of JLM have caused the controversy.
  • Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    He's been a batshit conspiracy theorist for a long long time. Very close with Chris Williamson. Was campaigning heavily against Labour adopting IHRA definition of anti Semitism.

    There's so much more than that, but suffice to say he should never have been a member of any mainstream political party.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kfowkes said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    Info here: https://twitter.com/GarySpedding/status/1103692016997806080

    Winstanley seems quite well informed and appears to be correct about JLM being involved with the Israeli embassy or at least certain individuals within such as Ella Rose and as a proxy for anti Corbyn factionalism but his latest claims about the 'refounding' of JLM have caused the controversy.
    Just googled him

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley

    mhhh
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Asa, isn't that a Hebrew name ?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    nico67 said:

    The DUP should just support a soft Brexit and then they can ditch the backstop . Their bluff needs to be called .

    FWIW I think the DUP would be happy with a soft Brexit, or even no Brexit, as long as they don't have to be seen supporting it. They can hardly have failed to notice that a hard Brexit would very likely lead to a referendum on Irish unity. So they will continue to vote down May's deal in the knowledge that this will lead to a softer outcome which will make the backstop unnecessary.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm sure I read something about a porno license being needed from April, available in all good newsagents apparently.
    Making Wanking Digital or some such
    There's now a MOJ app, featuring a character called Spank the Monkey, who explains how it works.
    I’m not sure PETA would be happy with that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Chelsea are actually quite entertaining !
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
    If someone says they don't like or respect Christianity that could trigger a very interesting philosophical/theological debate.

    If someone says they don't like or respect Islam/Judaism that will likely trigger accusations of racism and a likely unpleasant conversation.
    It's complicated by Jews being both a race and a religion. It's hard (though not impossible) to express dislike for Judaism without expressing dislike for Jews, or at least, for people to suspect one's motives.

    Well indeed, especially with the history there. There's no such race issue with the other 2 (though people call it a race issue still).

    I am not a fan of any organised religion, I feel the world would be a much better place if medieval and older mythologies were not being followed as the divine word of God.

    But while I feel OK to argue, sometimes vehemently, online against Christianity without getting into anything more than a fascinating debate ... any criticism (however mild) of Islam or Judaism I feel has to be crouched with a "I think this about Christianity too" caveat to avoid accusations of racism. Even then its still not always enough.

    It makes properly philosophical and theological debates a lot harder to have.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
    If someone says they don't like or respect Christianity that could trigger a very interesting philosophical/theological debate.

    If someone says they don't like or respect Islam/Judaism that will likely trigger accusations of racism and a likely unpleasant conversation.
    That’s a very interesting point. I think one can get away with it if it’s a case of not liking any religion , as you’re not really judging one above the other .

    You’re certainly correct in your view. It also throws up something else why are people so insulted if someone doesn’t like their religion . I mean all the time we like and don’t like certain things. Personally I’m not religious , but aspects of different religions interest me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Floater said:

    kfowkes said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    Info here: https://twitter.com/GarySpedding/status/1103692016997806080

    Winstanley seems quite well informed and appears to be correct about JLM being involved with the Israeli embassy or at least certain individuals within such as Ella Rose and as a proxy for anti Corbyn factionalism but his latest claims about the 'refounding' of JLM have caused the controversy.
    Just googled him

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley

    mhhh
    Christ. He’s obsessed.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289

    HYUFD said:

    Chuka Umunna says TIG would introduce PR, have national service for all school leavers and turn Parliament into a museum and build a new Chamber amongst other policies as well as stand candidates in every seat at the next general election

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-one-of-theresa-may-s-ministers-is-thinking-of-crossing-the-floor-to-join-the-a4085236.html

    Why not build 2 new chambers in different cities, and have everyone up-sticks and move between the two every month? I know that sounds totally ridiculous, and no sane person would ever consider it, but our friends in Brussels/Strasbourg appear to think otherwise...
    If we extend and participate in the Euro elections, I'm half imagining that the UK MEPs will sit in Strasbourg when the rest sit in Brussels and vice versa!
  • Floater said:

    kfowkes said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    Info here: https://twitter.com/GarySpedding/status/1103692016997806080

    Winstanley seems quite well informed and appears to be correct about JLM being involved with the Israeli embassy or at least certain individuals within such as Ella Rose and as a proxy for anti Corbyn factionalism but his latest claims about the 'refounding' of JLM have caused the controversy.
    Just googled him

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley

    mhhh
    Christ. He’s obsessed.
    A sort of undergraduate version of Yaxley-Lennon, who thinks he's John Pilger.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
    If someone says they don't like or respect Christianity that could trigger a very interesting philosophical/theological debate.

    If someone says they don't like or respect Islam/Judaism that will likely trigger accusations of racism and a likely unpleasant conversation.
    It's complicated by Jews being both a race and a religion. It's hard (though not impossible) to express dislike for Judaism without expressing dislike for Jews, or at least, for people to suspect one's motives.

    Well indeed, especially with the history there. There's no such race issue with the other 2 (though people call it a race issue still).

    I am not a fan of any organised religion, I feel the world would be a much better place if medieval and older mythologies were not being followed as the divine word of God.

    But while I feel OK to argue, sometimes vehemently, online against Christianity without getting into anything more than a fascinating debate ... any criticism (however mild) of Islam or Judaism I feel has to be crouched with a "I think this about Christianity too" caveat to avoid accusations of racism. Even then its still not always enough.

    It makes properly philosophical and theological debates a lot harder to have.
    I think most of my objections to religion are at a general level that are equally applicable to all religions - or at least to the three Abrahamic religions. E.g. Why does it matter to God [Allah/whoever] if I believe in them if I do good anyway? If I'm expected to believe without a personal miracle, why create miracles for these other dudes? Why would an infallible deity create such a contradictory set of instructions for how to live one's life? And so on.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Do Leavers really have sleepless nights over the backstop . And before the referendum did they have panic attacks over whether the UK should have its own trade deals !

    All of a sudden some Leavers will almost need to be hospitalized if heaven forbid the UK stays in a Customs Union .

    People have just wedded themselves to the pure Brexit pushed by the ERG , it’s become like a proxy religion . Any divergence from that path is seen as heresy .

    Half the country seems to have lost the plot and Remainers can only look on horrified as the UK turns into an ungovernable mess falling apart with the country never more divided.

    Considering that it was the argument eloquently made by Michael Gove and ironically Mr Tyndall of this parish that we could get better trade deals out than in which switched me from supporting Remain to Leave . . . yes absolutely it is a deal-breaker to me.

    I voted to Leave to Leave the Customs Union. Others voted with other priorities but it was a big deal to me then, so this is a big deal to me now.
    If that pushed you towards Leave then expect to be disappointed. Size matters ! Lol

    The EU has 500 million consumers and will always get a better deal than the UK.
    Size matters yes, but not necessarily in the way you mean it. Large can be bureaucratic, scelerotic and monolithic. Small can be nimble and agile.

    Australia has better trade deals than the EU. No reason we can't.
    Does Australia have better trade deals than the EU?

    It has a lot fewer of them. 10 deals, with 16 countries.

    http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/why-is-australia-so-keen-on-free-trade-agreements/

    The EU by contrast has around 40 with as many again in the pipeline.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

    Of course the Aussies might have 10 real corkers, but I am not sure how you'd even come up with a way of judging the relative performance.

    And it is simple common sense that if you are the biggest market on the planet you have a good negotiating position. Plenty of sheep, minerals and some tasty tubes of lager are all great things to have no doubt but I know which one I'd rather do a deal with.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Chuka Umunna says TIG would introduce PR, have national service for all school leavers and turn Parliament into a museum and build a new Chamber amongst other policies as well as stand candidates in every seat at the next general election

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-one-of-theresa-may-s-ministers-is-thinking-of-crossing-the-floor-to-join-the-a4085236.html


    2 out of 3 is not bad.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    edited March 2019

    Floater said:

    kfowkes said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    Info here: https://twitter.com/GarySpedding/status/1103692016997806080

    Winstanley seems quite well informed and appears to be correct about JLM being involved with the Israeli embassy or at least certain individuals within such as Ella Rose and as a proxy for anti Corbyn factionalism but his latest claims about the 'refounding' of JLM have caused the controversy.
    Just googled him

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley

    mhhh
    Christ. He’s obsessed.
    A sort of undergraduate version of Yaxley-Lennon, who thinks he's John Pilger.
    Yaxley Lennon is very pro Israel, and definitely not Jewish.
    Asa is anti Israel, and I'm guessing Jewish ..
  • Pulpstar said:

    Floater said:

    kfowkes said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    Its funny how quickly they are springing into action these days.

    Yet that member had to report a video calling him 'a fucking jew' nine times, and get the police involved, before Labour did anything.
    I think I might have missed the back story with this one

    What has Asa allegedly done?
    Info here: https://twitter.com/GarySpedding/status/1103692016997806080

    Winstanley seems quite well informed and appears to be correct about JLM being involved with the Israeli embassy or at least certain individuals within such as Ella Rose and as a proxy for anti Corbyn factionalism but his latest claims about the 'refounding' of JLM have caused the controversy.
    Just googled him

    https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley

    mhhh
    Christ. He’s obsessed.
    A sort of undergraduate version of Yaxley-Lennon, who thinks he's John Pilger.
    Yaxley Lennon is very pro Israel, and definitely not Jewish.
    Asa is anti Israel, and I'm guessing Jewish ..
    They're both obssessive zoomers. Asa may have had more education, but both are equally idiotic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Size matters yes, but not necessarily in the way you mean it. Large can be bureaucratic, scelerotic and monolithic. Small can be nimble and agile.

    Australia has better trade deals than the EU. No reason we can't.

    Does Australia have better trade deals than the EU?

    It has a lot fewer of them. 10 deals, with 16 countries.

    http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/why-is-australia-so-keen-on-free-trade-agreements/

    The EU by contrast has around 40 with as many again in the pipeline.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

    Of course the Aussies might have 10 real corkers, but I am not sure how you'd even come up with a way of judging the relative performance.

    And it is simple common sense that if you are the biggest market on the planet you have a good negotiating position. Plenty of sheep, minerals and some tasty tubes of lager are all great things to have no doubt but I know which one I'd rather do a deal with.

    You're comparing apples with oranges there. The EU's aren't all FTAs whereas you're only counting full FTA's with Australia.

    Australia has FTA's with USA, China and Japan - 3/4 of the world's top economies. With one with the EU itself on the way too. Once the EU one comes into force [and we sign one with them too which we will] they will have agreements with all the world's top major economies.
    The EU now has an FTA with Japan (famously just come into force) but hasn't got one with either USA or China.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Amber Rudd didn't make the BBC news headlines

    What a surprise
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    He's right. And they should not have a problem with that, since they would say they are making the right choice here.

    Will any Cabinet Members finally throw in the towel if after the vote fails against next week May proposed to do nothing again? It's time to give up on Brexit - when even the Brexit purists don't want the Brexit that is on offer, just stop.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Amber Rudd didn't make the BBC news headlines

    What a surprise

    Colour me shocked !
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited March 2019

    Amber Rudd didn't make the BBC news headlines

    What a surprise

    To be fair, they had Karen Bradley apologising for putting her foot in her gob. However many cabinet ministers apologise in a day, you probably can’t really put more than one in a 60 second headline sequence. And KB’s was the more substantial cock-up.

    (And Amber followed straight after.. in the sequence on ‘ministers who’ve cocked up today’)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    In fairness to Owen Jones, he is raging about it on Twatter.

    Maubergine Al Qaeda will kidnap him.
    Yes, Owen Jones was apparently on this an hour and a half before Ms Hopkins, so I am not sure why she is calling him out?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103735035100844033
    I can well imagine fundamentalist Christians and many DUP supporters having a fair bit of sympathy with the messages being chanted there.
    If someone says they don't like or respect Christianity that could trigger a very interesting philosophical/theological debate.

    If someone says they don't like or respect Islam/Judaism that will likely trigger accusations of racism and a likely unpleasant conversation.
    It's complicated by Jews being both a race and a religion. It's hard (though not impossible) to express dislike for Judaism without expressing dislike for Jews, or at least, for people to suspect one's motives.

    Well indeed, especially with the history there. There's no such race issue with the other 2 (though people call it a race issue still).

    I am not a fan of any organised religion, I feel the world would be a much better place if medieval and older mythologies were not being followed as the divine word of God.

    But while I feel OK to argue, sometimes vehemently, online against Christianity without getting into anything more than a fascinating debate ... any criticism (however mild) of Islam or Judaism I feel has to be crouched with a "I think this about Christianity too" caveat to avoid accusations of racism. Even then its still not always enough.

    It makes properly philosophical and theological debates a lot harder to have.
    It's a peculiarly modern thing. Despite being a much more secular society than in the past, we pussyfoot around criticising particular religions, or denominations within religions, in a way that would seem pathetically weak to our ancestors.

    Or else, as you say, take refuge in saying all religions are equally bad, which staves off accusations of bigotry, but which is not intellectually honest.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Floater said:
    Even for order-order that's pretty desperate stuff.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    A host of agreements including ones for aviation and trade facilitation aren’t going to be signed in time for March 29.

    You know things are bad when even the Brexit loving Telegraph has this news. What has this inept government been doing for the last two years !
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Pulpstar said:

    Chelsea are actually quite entertaining !

    They should bring back Mourinho, that would restore their normal service.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Sayeeda Warsi

    Verified account

    @SayeedaWarsi
    7h7 hours ago
    More
    “In one alleged incident, a senior named party officer was accused of referring to a Conservative council candidate of Indian origin, Prab Ghosh, as “Oran”, allegedly a shortening of “orangutan”.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Sayeeda Warsi

    Verified account

    @SayeedaWarsi
    7h7 hours ago
    More
    “In one alleged incident, a senior named party officer was accused of referring to a Conservative council candidate of Indian origin, Prab Ghosh, as “Oran”, allegedly a shortening of “orangutan”.

    Its nice that your finally getting interested in incidents of racism
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's a bit of a shock to see this on the front page of the Guardian website:

    "Revealed: populist leaders linked to reduced inequality"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/07/revealed-populist-leaders-linked-to-reduced-inequality

    Just how significant is that result? Just look at the scatter plot further down the article!
    Those scatter plots are amazing .... Voodoo Statistics with the Chicken Entrails and Ceremonial Drums.

    It is amazing that someone funded this “research” to the tune of 235,386 euros.
    Could you explain what's wrong with their statistics?
    Well, what is the horizontal axis? What is the scale and unit of “populism”? Is the scale linear or logarithmic?

    What is the vertical axis? E.g., how has “electoral quality” (second graph) been measured?

    On the vertical axis in the first graph, why does the “data” neatly line up in horizontal lines, as if on a grid ? Anyone who deals with real data finds that it rarely occupies a set of grid points, like a checkerboard.

    What are the error bars on the “datapoints”? Anyone who deals with real data knows that any datum comes with an error bar, normally asymmetrical and non-gaussian.

    What are the blue lines ? How have the errors been treated in drawing the dashed blue lines. What are the covariances between the quantities and how have they been dealt with?
    You understand that the Guardian article isn't their paper, right? It's an article about the paper?

    Unfortunately the link to the actual paper is broken right now, so I have no idea how clear they are on these points or whether it's total pseudoscience... and neither do you. But you can see some of their methodology here:

    There is no refereed paper in a Journal. So, there is NO PAPER.

    There is a link to a file on a website.

    I obviously looked at the file before posting the questions.

    Perhaps answer the questions I posed, rather than conjecturing I had not looked at the file ?
    What did you see when you looked at the file?
    A 23 page document, which is at the level of “The Very Hungry Caterpillar”
    A document that's winning numerous awards then?
    This was my favorite bit of the document - which has no description or discussion whatsoever of methods:

    "2 Note that this is not the recommended method from Solt (2016)."
This discussion has been closed.